2015 Season‎ > ‎

2015-10-04

Strength of Schedule and Conference Rankings will be provided later in the day.

Scroll to the bottom for notations regarding adjustments and a couple of notes for the beginning of the 2015 ratings season. 


1 Florida 0.583249
2 Northwestern 0.540090
3 Texas A&M 0.439340
4 LSU 0.404288
5 Oklahoma 0.402516
6 Iowa 0.401882
7 Utah 0.399195
8 Temple 0.352376
9 Ohio St. 0.334843
10 TCU 0.334276
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11 Oklahoma St. 0.312956
12 Clemson 0.297704
13 Toledo 0.296756
14 Michigan St. 0.292665
15 Cal (Berkeley) 0.289347
16 Stanford 0.289197
17 Michigan 0.269823
18 Alabama 0.240624
19 Baylor 0.222262
20 Memphis 0.207008
21 Houston 0.201020
22 Navy 0.199099
23 UCLA 0.185084
24 Penn St. 0.172064
25 Kentucky 0.170195
26 Florida St. 0.168886
27 Ole Miss 0.158532
28 Duke 0.143732
29 Notre Dame 0.134725
30 Western Kentucky 0.125755
31 Missouri 0.123365
32 Ohio 0.121937
33 Southern California 0.116841
34 Illinois 0.108833
35 Indiana 0.096999
36 Minnesota 0.089007
37 Pittsburgh 0.086096
38 Marshall 0.083728
39 Brigham Young 0.072983
40 West Virginia 0.066999
41 Georgia 0.063524
42 Kansas St. 0.059265
43 North Carolina 0.044219
44 Syracuse 0.040543
45 Boise St. 0.027712
46 U. Miami 0.013513
47 Appalachian St. 0.001250
48 North Carolina St. -0.014182
49 Mississippi St. -0.020317
50 Arizona St. -0.024490
51 Cincinnati -0.060774
52 Georgia Southern -0.061831
53 Texas Tech -0.067886
54 Auburn -0.091108
55 Wisconsin -0.094108
56 Arizona -0.097623
57 Oregon St. -0.120972
58 East Carolina -0.138917
59 Tulsa -0.148050
60 Louisiana Tech -0.159859
61 Washington -0.169429
62 South Carolina -0.173661
63 Bowling Green -0.176572
64 Iowa St. -0.180893
65 Utah St. -0.220522
66 Louisville -0.223322
67 Nebraska -0.226671
68 Arkansas -0.229516
69 Ball St. -0.244455
70 Tennessee -0.245647
71 South Alabama -0.245709
72 Oregon -0.251425
73 Georgia Tech -0.272934
74 Akron -0.274146
75 Vanderbilt -0.280155
76 Boston College -0.287398
77 Virginia Tech -0.296849
78 Tulane -0.305249
79 Southern Mississippi -0.310328
80 New Mexico -0.313522
81 Arkansas St. -0.329238
82 Colorado -0.342280
83 Hawaii -0.351473
84 Rutgers -0.352713
85 Maryland -0.360189
86 Connecticut -0.366603
87 Kent St. -0.380701
88 Washington St. -0.381479
89 Virginia -0.398242
90 San Diego St. -0.405089
91 Texas -0.427786
92 Old Dominion -0.432009
93 Air Force -0.435852
94 Wake Forest -0.437886
95 Massachusetts -0.441692
96 UNLV -0.449747
97 Louisiana-Monroe -0.454107
98 Middle Tennessee -0.461224
99 Louisiana-Lafayette -0.470654
100 Central Michigan -0.475882
101 Northern Illinois -0.477270
102 San Jose St. -0.488024
103 Nevada (Reno) -0.489594
104 Troy -0.501804
105 Colorado St. -0.537582
106 Florida Atlantic -0.550642
107 Southern Methodist -0.558863
108 Florida International -0.565778
109 Buffalo -0.587073
110 South Florida -0.613552
111 Texas-San Antonio -0.627607
112 Rice -0.630694
113 UNC-Charlotte -0.677562
114 Western Michigan -0.680238
115 Miami U. -0.714966
116 Fresno St. -0.738292
117 UTEP -0.744412
118 Idaho -0.746195
119 Texas St. -0.766834
120 Georgia St. -0.806976
121 Purdue -0.816948
122 Army -0.872248
123 Kansas -0.880077
124 Eastern Michigan -1.091995
125 Central Florida -1.330631
126 North Texas -1.453736
127 New Mexico St. -1.475893
128 Wyoming -1.786635
*Before getting to the gritty details, I wanted to mention that this season is dedicated to the memory of Adam Cicco (1987-2015), a friend of this site. Any donation received during this time will help to remember him in some way, most likely through the Florida St. University Athletic Department.

The following list is a normal function of my formula, but it's still something I consider worth noting.  If I don't adjust these ratings, very large negative numbers are produced by certain losses, and it gives too much weight to that one week.  These teams have been given the minimum rating as opponents (not above) in place of their actual rating.  These are only teams with at least one FBS/I-A win.  More teams are added to this list as teams have more losses relative to (usually, the one) win.
Army
Eastern Michigan
Georgia St.

The following also had off-the-charts (weak) strengths of schedules that had to be adjusted:  This usually is only an issue early in the year.
Florida St.
Georgia Southern
New Mexico

I decided to post a little more detail at the beginning of every season.  I don't think many people will read this, but if someone does and it's not detailed enough or seems out of context, there is more information at the bottom of the left panel. 

I will try to break it down further, but it is a little complex.  there are three major steps to my formula.  Step 1 computes the strength of schedule (SoS).  Higher numbers indicate worse strengths of schedule, so the number I get is subtracted from a second number that is the same for every team.  Step 2 is when I use the SoS to get an opponent's rating.  This is winning percentage times (x-SoS).  If the team has at least one FBS win, I then supply a minimum rating of 1 to that team.  Step 3 is when I add and subtract numbers based on the strengths of wins and weaknesses of losses.  I never alter Step 3.  The first list above applies to Step 2 and the second applies to Step 1.  As the season goes on, typically there will be no teams that need adjustments in Step 1.

I'll lose people here, but if you want to try to understand the math... Since losses involve taking inverse numbers (this is so that I subtract less for losing to good teams), if you look at a graph of 1/x (http://www.sagemath.org/calctut/calctut-pix/onesided05.png), you would understand that a number x of less than 1 can get ridiculously large.  In short, one bad game can wipe out a whole season of good wins.  Losing to a team with an opponent's rating of 1 does enough damage.  It can make the difference of up to 60 spots this early in the year.  Later in the year it could be anywhere from two or three spots to around 30 spots depending on where in the rankings an affected team is.  It's a subtraction of 0.5, to be exact.
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