2012 season‎ > ‎

2012-10-14

1 Notre Dame 0.702802
2 Alabama 0.564103
3 Ohio St. 0.558100
4 Kansas St. 0.530961
5 Florida 0.525347
6 Oregon St. 0.497884
7 Oregon 0.441155
8 Texas Tech 0.430506
9 South Carolina 0.363051
10 West Virginia 0.339385
11 Rutgers 0.309885
12 LSU 0.287478
13 Oklahoma 0.279127
14 Texas A&M 0.275916
15 Mississippi St. 0.257641
16 Louisville 0.249775
17 Cincinnati 0.233082
18 Boise St. 0.227737
19 Ohio 0.214225
20 Stanford 0.181583
21 Northwestern 0.170837
22 Southern California 0.165244
23 Louisiana Tech 0.161784
24 Texas 0.148412
25 Florida St. 0.144455
26 Georgia 0.143061
27 Iowa St. 0.135525
28 Western Kentucky 0.135021
29 TCU 0.130888
30 Northern Illinois 0.108430
31 Toledo 0.103348
32 Tulsa 0.097631
33 Clemson 0.089632
34 Wisconsin 0.077788
35 UCLA 0.024203
36 Michigan 0.020931
37 Arizona St. 0.006661
38 Nebraska -0.004887
39 Utah St. -0.028397
40 Michigan St. -0.054310
41 San Jose St. -0.060044
42 Maryland -0.072669
43 Duke -0.076435
44 Minnesota -0.090916
45 Arizona -0.094907
46 Nevada (Reno) -0.096362
47 U. Miami -0.104979
48 North Carolina -0.106870
49 Washington -0.117639
50 Iowa -0.123944
51 North Carolina St. -0.130031
52 Temple -0.133666
53 Baylor -0.134282
54 Central Florida -0.143523
55 Oklahoma St. -0.155139
56 Ole Miss -0.188505
57 Navy -0.239581
58 Louisiana-Lafayette -0.244513
59 Wake Forest -0.258749
60 Purdue -0.265111
61 Arkansas St. -0.265388
62 Fresno St. -0.280595
63 Tennessee -0.291639
64 Texas-San Antonio -0.314999
65 East Carolina -0.318426
66 Bowling Green -0.333548
67 Kent St. -0.348027
68 Houston -0.373693
69 Virginia Tech -0.377250
70 Vanderbilt -0.394170
71 Brigham Young -0.401927
72 San Diego St. -0.403827
73 Louisiana-Monroe -0.412183
74 Troy -0.445465
75 Arkansas -0.447063
76 Missouri -0.466230
77 Miami U. -0.469127
78 Indiana -0.511556
79 Syracuse -0.513219
80 Penn St. -0.518746
81 South Florida -0.520701
82 North Texas -0.544371
83 Utah -0.546711
84 Connecticut -0.552784
85 Middle Tennessee -0.576462
86 Central Michigan -0.580339
87 Ball St. -0.629672
88 Texas St. -0.644013
89 Southern Mississippi -0.651331
90 Illinois -0.680457
91 Air Force -0.695140
92 Georgia Tech -0.719975
93 Auburn -0.721417
94 New Mexico -0.721770
95 Alabama-Birmingham -0.765882
96 Cal (Berkeley) -0.793618
97 Western Michigan -0.828877
98 Tulane -0.839619
99 Southern Methodist -0.841454
100 Virginia -0.847259
101 Marshall -0.910466
102 Hawaii -0.930093
103 Kentucky -0.972154
104 Kansas -0.973341
105 Boston College -0.974818
106 Washington St. -1.024857
107 Pittsburgh -1.084018
108 UTEP -1.103214
109 Florida Atlantic -1.114027
110 South Alabama -1.213292
111 Memphis -1.246849
112 Rice -1.288624
113 Florida International -1.306925
114 Idaho -1.473090
115 Colorado -1.481403
116 Wyoming -1.511258
117 Colorado St. -1.521830
118 Buffalo -1.557140
119 Army -1.616139
120 Massachusetts -1.625942
121 Eastern Michigan -1.652435
122 UNLV -1.668666
123 Akron -1.934913
124 New Mexico St. -2.171870
At this early stage in the season, the results are still volatile.  A number of teams could not be rated the normal way because very small numbers (produced by poor schedules, for instance) become very large numbers when they are denominators, and in some instances negative numbers are created when they cannot be accommodated by the formula.  Even though it's problematic, I substitute numbers in order to create a rating for all teams.  The teams with strengths of schedules that had to be adjusted are as follows:
Ohio
Texas-San Antonio

I ensured that they were still given worse schedule ratings than all other teams.  The worst schedule that is rated normally is Kent St.'s at .05.  These were given ratings of .01 to make sure they rated worse.  These also show up in the list below not because they're bad teams necessarily but because there is very little basis to give these teams credit as opponents.  Beating weak teams does not make the winner bad of course.

The following list is a normal function of my formula, but it's still something I consider worth noting.  If I don't adjust these ratings, very large negative numbers are produced so that a team can have a number of good wins combined with one bad loss and fall below another team with no good wins and somewhat bad losses.  So essentially the following teams are bad losses (at least statistically), but I have capped the negative effect of losing to these teams and in the process, I have added to the ratings of teams who have beaten these.  These are all teams that have beaten at least one FBS (I-A) opponent, so I don't think it's unfair to give them this baseline rating.  The list should generally get smaller as the season progresses, but one problem is that if a team is 1-5 and not on this list, it may appear on it if the same team ends up with a record of 1-11, for instance.
Army
Colorado
Colorado St.
Florida International
Idaho
Kansas
Kent St.
Kentucky
Memphis
Nevada (Reno)
Ohio
Rice
Texas-San Antonio
Tulane
UNLV
UTEP
Wyoming
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