2012 season‎ > ‎

2012-10-07

1 Notre Dame 0.577687
2 Ohio St. 0.514554
3 South Carolina 0.513422
4 Oregon 0.493325
5 West Virginia 0.483520
6 Florida 0.413818
7 Alabama 0.408262
8 Oregon St. 0.385450
9 Kansas St. 0.362034
10 Stanford 0.335044
11 Louisiana Tech 0.235416
12 Texas 0.228164
13 Iowa St. 0.226626
14 Texas Tech 0.225262
15 Cincinnati 0.211662
16 Ohio 0.206578
17 Georgia 0.205300
18 Rutgers 0.201922
19 Mississippi St. 0.182503
20 Louisville 0.180650
21 LSU 0.174246
22 Boise St. 0.156563
23 Florida St. 0.132958
24 Texas A&M 0.130150
25 Toledo 0.119697
26 Duke 0.119391
28 Michigan St. 0.102626
27 Oklahoma 0.102164
29 Clemson 0.102001
30 San Jose St. 0.085644
31 Northwestern 0.085530
32 Northern Illinois 0.081906
33 Southern California 0.076235
34 Baylor 0.070786
35 Tulsa 0.065873
36 Washington 0.054668
37 TCU 0.051791
38 Minnesota 0.049689
39 Western Kentucky 0.023326
40 U. Miami 0.017002
41 Texas-San Antonio 0.011759
42 Arizona St. -0.013178
43 Michigan -0.026007
44 North Carolina -0.030413
45 Wisconsin -0.039359
46 Nebraska -0.042086
47 Tennessee -0.044440
48 Arizona -0.058175
49 Fresno St. -0.096529
50 Maryland -0.105924
51 Central Florida -0.114240
52 Iowa -0.138262
53 Purdue -0.152313
54 Utah St. -0.156849
55 Oklahoma St. -0.185432
56 Nevada (Reno) -0.195579
57 UCLA -0.214379
58 Temple -0.222283
59 Wake Forest -0.246791
60 New Mexico -0.246880
61 Missouri -0.253426
62 Brigham Young -0.258892
63 Louisiana- Lafayette -0.262141
64 Ole Miss -0.262207
65 Arkansas St. -0.280683
66 Miami U. -0.281209
67 Navy -0.286009
68 Central Michigan -0.295716
69 North Carolina St. -0.295862
70 Vanderbilt -0.298195
71 Kent St. -0.334725
72 Troy -0.353595
73 Southern Methodist -0.354389
74 San Diego St. -0.354871
75 East Carolina -0.363013
76 Louisiana-Monroe -0.365732
77 Syracuse -0.379803
78 Utah -0.394437
79 Bowling Green -0.405277
80 Connecticut -0.426005
81 Indiana -0.428300
82 Virginia Tech -0.490908
83 Penn St. -0.506978
84 Alabama-Birmingham -0.507307
85 Southern Mississippi -0.516081
86 Middle Tennessee -0.526992
87 Arkansas -0.566743
88 Western Michigan -0.579107
89 North Texas -0.607368
90 South Florida -0.639977
91 Ball St. -0.664296
92 Auburn -0.673537
93 Hawaii -0.687706
94 Georgia Tech -0.706769
95 Pittsburgh -0.707254
96 Texas State -0.709928
97 Kentucky -0.756534
98 Houston -0.774359
99 Illinois -0.775588
100 Washington St. -0.782390
101 Cal (Berkeley) -0.798579
102 Air Force -0.828004
103 Marshall -0.842371
104 Florida Atlantic -0.852259
105 Boston College -0.856694
106 Virginia -0.910587
107 UTEP -0.924780
108 Kansas -0.948303
109 Tulane -0.980626
110 South Alabama -0.988135
111 Florida International -0.988987
112 Army -1.039888
113 Memphis -1.048624
114 Wyoming -1.069288
115 Colorado -1.206990
116 Idaho -1.276604
117 Colorado St. -1.286133
118 Buffalo -1.294344
119 Akron -1.425877
120 Massachusetts -1.526483
121 UNLV -1.605256
122 Rice -1.647512
123 Eastern Michigan -1.935123
124 New Mexico St. -2.173933

At this early stage in the season, the results are still volatile.  A number of teams could not be rated the normal way because very small numbers (produced by poor schedules, for instance) become very large numbers when they are denominators, and in some instances negative numbers are created when they cannot be accommodated by the formula.  Even though it's problematic, I substitute numbers in order to create a rating for all teams.  The teams with strengths of schedules that had to be adjusted are as follows:
Nevada (Reno)
Ohio
Texas-San Antonio

I ensured that they were still given worse schedule ratings than all other teams.  The worst schedule that is rated normally is Kent St.'s at .05.  These were given ratings of .01 to make sure they rated worse.  These also show up in the list below not because they're bad teams necessarily but because there is very little basis to give these teams credit as opponents.  Beating weak teams does not make the winner bad of course.

The following list is a normal function of my formula, but it's still something I consider worth noting.  If I don't adjust these ratings, very large negative numbers are produced so that a team can have a number of good wins combined with one bad loss and fall below another team with no good wins and somewhat bad losses.  So essentially the following teams are bad losses (with the caveat noted above), but I have capped the negative effect of losing to these teams and in the process, I have added to the ratings of teams who have beaten these.  These are all teams that have beaten at least one FBS (I-A) opponent, so I don't think it's unfair to give them this baseline rating.  The list should get smaller as the season progresses.
Army
Colorado
Colorado St.
Florida International
Idaho
Kansas
Kent St.
Nevada (Reno)
Ohio
Rice
Texas-San Antonio
UNLV
UTEP
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