2012 season‎ > ‎

2012-10-28

1 Notre Dame 0.928460
2 Alabama 0.798086
3 Ohio St. 0.771392
4 Kansas St. 0.763583
5 Oregon 0.639867
6 Florida 0.575492
7 Louisville 0.448456
8 LSU 0.433898
9 Oregon St. 0.418769
10 Georgia 0.418549
11 South Carolina 0.411567
12 Florida St. 0.379083
13 Stanford 0.328000
14 Toledo 0.318184
15 Texas Tech 0.308374
16 Clemson 0.298682
17 Boise St. 0.285496
18 Nebraska 0.278632
19 Northwestern 0.243501
20 Mississippi St. 0.235050
21 Rutgers 0.213659
22 Texas 0.195516
23 Texas A&M 0.182130
24 Oklahoma 0.172808
25 Tulsa 0.171932
26 Louisiana Tech 0.167565
27 Arizona 0.155131
28 San Jose St. 0.150588
29 West Virginia 0.144239
30 Southern California 0.121931
31 Northern Illinois 0.100530
32 Utah St. 0.096999
33 UCLA 0.070188
34 Iowa St. 0.060505
35 Oklahoma St. 0.044906
36 Wisconsin 0.034789
37 Ohio 0.033673
38 Michigan 0.025062
39 Western Kentucky -0.018558
40 Washington -0.032066
41 Navy -0.032786
42 Central Florida -0.041685
43 Cincinnati -0.051757
44 Michigan St. -0.087903
45 Duke -0.100511
46 North Carolina -0.102259
47 Fresno St. -0.124742
48 Kent St. -0.131100
49 Ole Miss -0.132150
50 Minnesota -0.157472
51 Arkansas St. -0.162058
52 TCU -0.166415
53 Arizona St. -0.172353
54 U. Miami -0.190095
55 North Carolina St. -0.234264
56 San Diego St. -0.252922
57 Missouri -0.256063
58 Bowling Green -0.269585
59 Louisiana-Monroe -0.273671
60 Vanderbilt -0.300735
61 Virginia Tech -0.328788
62 Brigham Young -0.356659
63 Syracuse -0.360483
64 Baylor -0.365604
65 Tennessee -0.383314
66 Iowa -0.387330
67 Wake Forest -0.432548
68 Ball St. -0.476592
69 Purdue -0.481245
70 East Carolina -0.483764
71 Utah -0.493663
72 Miami U. -0.494077
73 Texas-San Antonio -0.516480
74 Air Force -0.540184
75 Arkansas -0.551947
76 Middle Tennessee -0.563134
77 Indiana -0.579566
78 Penn St. -0.590115
79 Nevada (Reno) -0.612564
80 Temple -0.632312
81 Southern Methodist -0.686869
82 Houston -0.698631
83 Texas St. -0.710540
84 Louisiana-Lafayette -0.728058
85 Georgia Tech -0.747665
86 North Texas -0.752682
87 Troy -0.779244
88 Pittsburgh -0.821091
89 Cal (Berkeley) -0.868323
90 Auburn -0.908271
91 Maryland -0.912966
92 South Florida -0.919490
93 Connecticut -0.923384
94 Central Michigan -0.969684
95 Illinois -1.002639
96 Kentucky -1.052464
97 Hawaii -1.092029
98 Tulane -1.093399
99 South Alabama -1.108731
100 Marshall -1.124732
101 UTEP -1.127756
102 Colorado St. -1.148090
103 New Mexico -1.150979
104 Boston College -1.185776
105 Virginia -1.228378
106 Washington St. -1.228891
107 Florida Atlantic -1.232812
108 Southern Mississippi -1.264555
109 Wyoming -1.422192
110 Alabama-Birmingham -1.422956
111 Kansas -1.423550
112 Eastern Michigan -1.434248
113 Colorado -1.442713
114 Memphis -1.490000
115 Florida International -1.502800
116 Rice -1.523602
117 Western Michigan -1.534961
118 Idaho -1.837867
119 UNLV -1.926054
120 Buffalo -1.971605
121 Army -2.026395
122 Massachusetts -2.065004
123 New Mexico St. -2.435646
124 Akron -2.705592
The teams with strengths of schedules that had to be adjusted (due to excessive games against teams with poor records) are as follows:
Ohio

Part of my formula subtracts the strength of schedule number (provided in the "SoS" links to the left) from 12, and Ohio's SoS number is over 13.

The following list is a normal function of my formula, but it's still something I consider worth noting.  If I don't adjust these ratings, very large negative numbers are produced so that a team can have a number of good wins combined with one bad loss and fall below another team with no good wins and somewhat bad losses.  So essentially the following teams are bad losses (at least statistically), but I have capped the negative effect of losing to these teams and in the process, I have added to the ratings of teams who have beaten these.  These are all teams that have beaten at least one FBS (I-A) opponent, so I don't think it's unfair to give them this baseline rating.  The list should generally get smaller as the season progresses, but one problem is that if a team is 1-5 and not on this list, the same team may appear on it if it ends up with a record of 1-11, for instance.  Also, an 0-6 team won't be on the list, but if they win the next game, then they probably would be on the list.
Army
Auburn
Boston College
Colorado
Eastern Michigan
Florida International
Idaho
Kentucky
Memphis
Ohio
South Alabama
UNLV
Wyoming
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