Post date: Sep 27, 2014 1:29:24 PM
沖縄科学技術大学院大学のMahes Bandi氏が共同研究の打合せのために我々の研究グループを来訪されました．
滞在最終日にはセミナー講演を行いました．
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地球惑星物理学特別セミナー
日時：2014年9月29日（月）10:00〜11:30
場所：名古屋大学 理学館202号室
講演者: Prof. Mahesh M. Bandi (OIST)
タイトル: Wind power fluctuations and forecast error at the electrical grid level
概要：Conventional energy sources (e.g. coal, nuclear etc.) generate power at a constant rate to match a fluctuating load (consumer demand) that can be well estimated. Renewable energy sources, on the other hand, introduce an additional uncertainty at the generation level due to natural fluctuations of the energy source, such as wind or availability of sun light. This uncertainty is particularly acute for wind power. Wild, intermittent turbulent fluctuations in wind velocity carry over to the power generated by the wind turbine. Indeed, wind power fluctuations share spectral features characteristic of turbulence at the turbine and farm levels. Whereas power drawn from different wind farms is expected to smooth out the fluctuations, power entering the electrical grid is still known to fluctuate wildly. With increasing wind power penetration, these fluctuations pose serious issues for system operators owing to increased operating reserve costs and potential grid instabilities. Naturally, there is considerable interest in accurate forecasting models. Yet, no accepted standard for quality of wind power forecast models currently exists.
In this talk, I will review the status quo on quantification of forecast error, and emphasise the role of temporal correlations. Using mature tools available from the statistical theory of hydrodynamic turbulence, I will then present a method to quantify two types of forecast error using real wind power data.
This work was supported by the OIST Graduate University through subsidy funding provided by the Cabinet Office of the Government of Japan.