Understanding Selectivity

Understanding College Selectivity

Where can I get in?!?


Applying to college can be stressful.  Often, the stress stems from not knowing what, if any, colleges you can get into.  Remember, there are over 4000 colleges and universities in the United States, so everyone will have some options.  

Colleges usually receive more applicants than it can admit.  This determines the colleges’ selectivity or competitivenessThe most selective colleges admit less than 10% of their applicants.  At the other end of the spectrum, there are also colleges that essentially have open admission (all students with a high school diploma are admissible and usually admitted).  

As you think about college characteristics that are important to you (which will be discussed in more detail), you need to find colleges and universities that satisfy all you are looking for, but that also have varying degrees of selectivity.  As you research and develop a final college list, you need to have colleges in three distinct categories…

Reach Schools – Your grades, strength of schedule, test scores (if used), and/or other factors are below those of the majority of accepted students at these schools. It would take something compelling on your application to override those odds. 

Realistic/Target Schools – Your grades, strength of schedule, test scores (if used), and/or other factors more closely fit the ones of accepted students or at least fall within a realistic range. You have a reasonable chance (typically better than 60-40) for admission. 

Likely/Safety Schools – Your grades, strength of schedule, test scores (if used), and/or other factors typically fall significantly above those of admitted students. You will almost certainly gain admission.

Your prospective college list should contain about 25% Reach schools, 50% Realistic/Target schools, and 25% Likely/Safety schools.  Every college you apply to must be a place that is a good fit for you.  In other words, it satisfies all the characteristics you are looking for.

Because your academic performance is unique to you, the colleges that are a “reach”, “realistic” and “likely” are also unique to you.  What is a “reach” to one applicant might be “likely” to another.  

Sometimes, students focus too much on their “reach” schools and not enough time on their “realistic” or “likely” schools.  You need to research schools in all categories.  



  Finding your Realistic/Target School 


This activity (designed for junior year) is intended to serve as a guideline to your college planning.  It is not a guarantee or an exact science.  


First, in order to find your estimated strength of schedule (to be used with your unweighted GPA on a 4.0 scale)...


1-Look at the academic courses you have taken (grades 9 and 10) and are taking this year (grade 11)

2-Assign the following point values for your academic courses…

-1 pt/CP class

-2 pts/Hon class

-3 pts/Acc class

-4 pts/AP class

3-Your total for grades 9-11 should be between 10 and 45+.  My total number is ________.

(If your total number does not fall exactly in a column below, round to the nearest column when using the chart below)

Now write your Unweighted GPA here ________. (again, when using the chart below, round to the nearest number).


In the chart below…


1-Circle your GPA on a 4.0 scale (round to nearest number)

2-Circle your estimated strength of schedule (round to the nearest number)

3-Find where they meet on the chart.  


Estimated Strength of Schedule (Numerical 1-7))

CP H Acc

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 45+

4.0 (A) 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2

3.7 (A-) 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2

3.3 (B+) 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3

3.0 (B) 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3

GPA 2.7 (B-) 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4

4.0 scale 2.3 (C+) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4

2.0 (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4

1.7 (C-) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5

1.3 (D+) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5

1.0 (D) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5

0.7 (D-) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7

0.3 (F=) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7

0.0 (F) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7



Using the chart above, you should now have a number (2-7) that indicates your “Realistic/Target” College Grouping.  My Number is…_______.


Refer to the attached “College Groupings by National Admit Rate”.  The column with your group number has examples of your “Realistic/Target” colleges.


The Group immediately to the left of your group are Reach” schools. (If I’m a “4”, reach would be group “3”)

The Group immediately to the right of your group are “Likely” schools. (If I’m a “4”, likely would be group “5”)


No student has “Group 1” (accept 10% or less) as a “Realistic/Target” college.

The groupings are based on the overall national admission rates, and do not distinguish between applying Early vs. Regular, differences among programs or majors, standardized test scores etc…

Colleges Groupings by National Admit Rate (Sample Size) - Google Sheets.pdf