International Health Response

What Went Wrong?

Introduction

One year ago, “coronavirus” or “COVID-19”, the words that are now part of the daily vocabulary of billions around the world, were unheard of. The first cases of this new disease appeared in December of 2019 in Wuhan, China, a city of 11 million people and a large transportation hub (Wu et al., 2020). By the end of January 2020, when the virus killed over 200 people in China and spread to at least 18 other countries, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared it “a global health emergency” (Lovelace Jr. & Feuer, 2020). Six weeks later, on March 11, 2020, the world was put on hold when the outbreak was classified as a global pandemic (Cucinotta & Vanelli, 2020). Could anything have been done differently, especially in the area of international health, to prevent the spread of Covid-19 around the globe?

COVID 19: Emergence and Diffusion

Figure 1. Travel from Wuhan on January 1, 2020.

The first known cases of the disease occurred in early December around a seafood market in Wuhan, China (Wu et al., 2020). However, the Chinese officials did not alert the public and even silenced the doctor who tried to warn others of the new virus (Hegarty, 2020; Garrett, 2020, p. 3). It was not until Dec. 31, 2019 that China alerted the WHO about the outbreak with a statement that “the disease is preventable and controllable” (Wu et al., 2020). By then, it was already too late, as tens of thousands of people traveled from Wuhan to their hometowns for the Lunar New Year, and the virus with them (see Figure 1). It is estimated that about 7 million people left Wuhan in January before the province was locked down on January 23, 2020 (Wu et al., 2020).

What Could Have Been Done Differently?

There are many things that are unpreventable despite our best efforts, as we cannot control the uncontrollable. Just like we cannot prevent the next big hurricane from striking a well populated coastline, or the next big earthquake in areas like Italy or California, or in this case, the next outbreak of an evolved virus. These disasters happen without warning and are swift in their actions. As humans trying to avoid the next disaster, the only thing that can be done is to prepare for these worst case scenarios, to mitigate the destruction and severity as best we can, and act just as swiftly as disaster when it strikes.

If we can learn anything from the 2003 SARS outbreak, it is impossible to be ready for one type of outbreak, as it may arrive in many different ways. Having a public health policy throughout the world is strong and cohesive enough to respond to outbreaks of all kinds (Learning from SARS, 2004). We were inadequately prepared for SARS, and we were unprepared for COVID.

There are two things that have been punished in our efforts to curb this virus. One is the troubled shortcomings in multilateral arrangements for global health security, with coordination between nations and their governments not being truthful or unified in the early days of this pandemic. The Chinese Government’s compliance with its reporting and information sharing obligations were flawed at best (Pandemic Preparations). Transparency was not achieved when transparency was of the utmost importance. This robbed the world of early action and allowed the virus to spread all over the globe before it was known.

Secondly, when COVID was reported and severity was known, the world was everything but unified in its approach. Some nations chose to lock themselves down (New Zealand) to curb spread and that has worked for a time. While others tried to find ways to stay open, entrusting their citizens to go through their daily lives safely (the US). In most cases, the virus was allowed to spread uncontrollably anyway, making it near impossible to end in any other outcome other than hoping for these vaccines to save us.

Did the WHO Do Enough to Prevent the Coronavirus Pandemic?

Figure 2. Sources of funding for the WHO

Funded by mandatory dues paid by its 194 member states and voluntary contributions from private organizations (see Figure 2), the WHO has been criticized for its deference to Beijing and increasing Chinese influence over the institution (Council of Foreign Relations, 2020). The fact that the virus began in China, a country known for control and suppression of information, was a disadvantage when it comes to preventing the spread of Covid-19. China notified the WHO about the outbreak in late December, but the agency was only able to send a team to Wuhan in late January. They met with President Xi Jinping and presented a list of questions to the Chinese health officials, but by the time the WHO received answers, the virus had already travelled around the world (see Figure 3). We can suspect the answers downplayed the outbreak as the WHO communicated in its Jan. 14 press briefing that “there was risk of human transmission,” and in its Jan.23 report that there was “growing evidence the disease spread between humans” (Jha, 2020). It was not until Jan. 30 that the WHO declared the virus outbreak PHEIC, or Public Health Emergency of International Concern.

The fact that the WHO does not have any power over countries limits its effectiveness to prevent pandemics. The agency depended on China for access and information, which came in late, so when PHEIC was finally declared, outbreaks were already present in over 30 cities across 26 countries (see Figure 3). What is more, on that same day and following its standard protocol, “WHO asked nations not to close borders” fearing that such restrictions might discourage states from reporting new outbreaks (McKay & Hinshaw, 2020). When the situation worsened globally and countries stopped international travel, the disease was already present within their borders, and the WHO has no authority to dictate what states should do in their territory. It also does not have a mandate to investigate or “authority to force information from the very governments that finance its programs and elect its leaders” (ibid). This is a major structural problem in global health governance which impaired the WHO’s response.

Besides acting too late and lacking the ability to gather data fast, WHO bureaucratic structure and lack of funding also contributed to its failure to handle the virus. In 2018-2019, only 8% of the WHO’s budget went to activities related to pandemic preparedness, which demonstrates that it is not a top priority (McKay & Hinshaw). The WHO does not even have enough experts who could write its recommendations and often relies on outside experts, which can be a very slow process. For example, it took over 4 months for WHO to agree that wearing masks slowed the spread of Covid-19, and in that time, about half a million people died (ibid). The WHO was also criticized for its undue praise of China’s early response to the virus, despite the fact that China has impaired the WHO’s response by failing to share timely and accurate information (Jha, 2020; Gostin et al., 2020). All of these issues combined resulted in the fact that the WHO did not do enough at the onset of the problem which rapidly reached global dimensions.

Figure 3. Travel from China around the world before January 31, 2020.

How International Health Regulations can be Broadened to Prevent Pandemics?

Figure 4. Graph showing the increase in outbreaks of infectious diseases over the years

Pandemics do not occur randomly. They are a result of interactions between people, other animal species and the environment. More than forty new infectious diseases in humans have emerged in the past few decades according to the graph in figure 4.

In the current world where 5.4 billion people are urban dwellers, emerging infectious diseases are less likely to burn out in rural areas, and would probably reach more integrated hubs of commercial traffic which have limited public health systems (Bollyky & Patrick Stewart, 2020). The International Health Regulations (IHR) of 2005 created by the WHO provide an overarching legal framework that defines the rights and obligations of countries’ in handling public health emergencies that have the potential to cross borders (World Health Organization). Pandemic preparedness is for the global public good, and infectious diseases such as COVID-19 do not know national borders when circulating unabated.

The IHR can be broadened to prevent future pandemics from occurring by helping to understand and recognize the great division that exists between the biological aspects of disease, and the social, environmental and political factors (Wilcox & Gubler 2005). Given the potential threats stemming from the movement of animals and livestock, and food production and distribution, national health information systems need to be able to ‘speak to’ other sectors in terms of data exchange. This includes being able to capture local specificities and connect with affected communities and actors, an aspect of core capacity-building that is not explicitly covered in the IHR (2005) (Kluge et al. 2018).

Bringing land use into public health policy research would be a step in the right direction. Since pandemics are rare events, the task of making accurate predictions will remain difficult. However, preventing a pandemic from happening would be a low cost approach in comparison to suffering from one. For example, the United States had spent $5 billion fighting Ebola in West Africa (McNeil, 2019). However, with projects such as PREDICT, the USAID’s Emerging Pandemic Threats program, we can strengthen global surveillance and laboratory diagnostic capabilities for both known and newly discovered viruses, while costing much less than suffering from the effects of a pandemic (UC Davis School of Veterinary Medicine). In addition, if the World Health Organization can invest in programs that monitor trade, by mapping trade routes and investigating the vectors that carry infectious diseases, this would be helpful in preventing future pandemics from taking place (Patz et al. 2004) .

Conclusion

Global population growth, deforestation and the current practices of agriculture have all contributed to the creation of this pandemic, and the existing 2005 International Health Regulations as well as the WHO have failed to prevent the spread of Covid-19. A major flaw of the WHO is that it is weak when dealing with sovereign states that often prioritize their own agendas. This can result in a lack of a common approach to effectively handle a global health crisis. It therefore remains a question whether organizations such as the WHO would be able to intervene in the global economic system to provide recommendations to curb environmental degradation and monitor the spread of infectious disease at the point of source. The current crisis has shown the world that to prevent a future pandemic will be necessary for all nations to collaborate on creating preset policies to curb microbial outbreaks and develop a common agreement to act upon when the next pandemic occurs.

References

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