13. Impacts of climate change

How will climate change affect Singapore?

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/pub-campaign-fight-climate-change-threat-weather-coastlines-14360794

https://earth.app.goo.gl/TxrxZH

A good Google Earth app to show how climate change can impact on coastal cities

Are there evidence of global warming?

Though global cooling was recorded after WWII for several decades because of industrial pollution and volcanic activity (global dimming). Global temperatures in the year 1990 to 2009 reached the highest levels ever recorded including the warmest years on record: 1998, 2001, 1995, 1990 and 2005. Although the majority of scientists believe that global warming is taking place, there are a few sceptics who believe this may not be the case and suggested arguments that the variations in temperatures are part of the natural cycles of fluctuation.

Evidence of global warming is more overwhelming:

- Global warming over the last century: world is warming on average by 0.74°C, with most of that since 1970s and that global temperatures in the last decade reached the highest levels on record.
- Sea level rise - Global sea level rose about 17 centimeters (6.7 inches) in the last century. The rate in the last decade, however, is nearly double that of the last century.4
- Global temperature rise - All three major global surface temperature reconstructions show that Earth has warmed since 1880. Most of this warming has occurred since the 1970s, with the 20 warmest years having occurred since 1981 and with all 10 of the warmest years occurring in the past 12 years.6 Even though the 2000s witnessed a solar output decline resulting in an unusually deep solar minimum in 2007-2009, surface temperatures continue to increase.
- Warming oceans -The oceans have absorbed much of this increased heat, with the top 700 meters (about 2,300 feet) of ocean showing warming of 0.302 degrees Fahrenheit since 1969.
- Shrinking ice sheets - The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have decreased in mass. Data from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment show Greenland lost 150 to 250 cubic kilometers (36 to 60 cubic miles) of ice per year between 2002 and 2006, while Antarctica lost about 152 cubic kilometers (36 cubic miles) of ice between 2002 and 2005.
- Declining Arctic sea ice - Both the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice has declined rapidly over the last several decades.9
- Glacial retreat - Glaciers are retreating almost everywhere around the world — including in the Alps, Himalayas, Andes, Rockies, Alaska and Africa.
- More extreme weather - The number of record high temperature events in the United States has been increasing, while the number of record low temperature events has been decreasing, since 1950. The U.S. has also witnessed increasing numbers of intense rainfall events.

https://www.straits times.com/asia/record-heatwave-of-up-to-45-deg-c-scorches-much-of-asia-and-it-s-going-to-get-worse

Spread of insect borne disease

Under a moderate warming scenario, 2.25 billion more people could be at risk for dengue fever by 2080.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/06/10/climate/dengue-mosquito-spread-map.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur

A total of 7,370 dengue cases have been reported in Singapore since the start of the year 2016. Four people have died of the disease so far – a 47-year-old man who lived in Marsiling Rise, a 67-year-old man who lived in Toa Payoh, a 63-year-old woman who lived in Bedok and a 73-year-old woman who lived in Hougang.

The Ministry of Health and NEA have warned that the number of dengue cases in Singapore may exceed 30,000 this year, higher than the record of 22,170 reported in 2013. One of the main factors is the rising temperatures which caused faster breeding and maturation cycles of the Aedes mosquito population.

Source: http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/new-dengue-cases-in/2754172.html

Does the increase in temperature also brings about a rise in insect-borne disease such as dengue?

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/dengue-cases-spike-with-a/2418014.html

Correlation between increasing temperature and dengue? Singapore's fight against Dengue (2013)

Rising sea level and coastal flooding

Venice under water on 13 Nov 2019 with high water mark at 1.87m. Will Singapore face the same situation in time? Woes of countries facing rising sea level due to climate change.

A tourist pushes her floating luggage in the flooded Piazza San Marco on November 13, 2019.

A firefighter in scuba gear wades through water, past a flooded car, in Venice on November 13, 2019.

Where is Venice located?

Why is Venice prone to flooding?

Who are affected by the flooding?

What are the environmental, social and economic impacts of rising sea level to Venice?

How can the impact of rising sea level be mitigated?

Source:

https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2019/11/photos-of-venice-underwater-highest-tide-in-50-years/601930/?fbclid=IwAR27VC2okdmixM3r6MkM7tNIr2wnK5XaBJAHSx2KW0m0bJR6gtMo9lNBrOQ

Another article to read on how climate change has impact on Venice

https://www.todayonline.com/world/venice-devastated-second-highest-tide-history

https://earth.app.goo.gl/TxrxZH

A good Google Earth app to show how climate change can impact on coastal cities

ST simulation of rising sea level in Singapore (VR)

https://graphics.straitstimes.com/STI/STIMEDIA/Interactives/2017/rising-seas/virtual-reality/index.html

Will Bangkok be submerged under the rising sea level?

Will Maldives be under the rising sea level by 2100 due to climate change?

Which are the top 10 countries which will be most affected by rising sea level?

Jakarta itself is home to about 10 million people and three times that number in the greater metropolitan area. It has been described as the world's most rapidly sinking city, and at the current rate, it is estimated that one-third of the city could be submerged by 2050

Extreme weather

Heatwave with temperatures above 40°C accompanied by drought in some areas, especially in Eastern Europe, whilst frequent thunderstorms with locally large hail are expected in Eastern Central and South-Eastern Europe. There are also risks of heat stress for vulnerable people and of wildfires.

https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/europe-sees-first-heatwave-of-year

What are the impacts of extreme weather?

How can the impacts be mitigated?

Temperatures may rise to 45°C in France.

In 2003 temperatures rose to 44.1°C and 15000 died due to the heatwave.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/france-record-heat-heatwave-temperature-45-degree-11670426

Impact on growing season (Agriculture)

Source: http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/weather-bureau-warns-el-nino-could-be-one-of-the-worst/news-story/c6aa6de8ea4fa3726c88a8ec1c89a729

WHAT IS AN EL NINO?

* Warming of sea surface temperatures in eastern and central Pacific Ocean that disrupts weather patterns across the Pacific

* Can cause ocean cooling in the western Pacific and around Northern Australia

* Can deliver more rain to the west coast of North and South America

* Can disrupt trade winds that blow moisture-laden air towards eastern Australia

WHAT ARE THE EFFECTS IN AUSTRALIA?

* Lower rainfall through winter and spring, especially in the north and east

* Temperature extremes

* Warmer-than-average weather, particularly in southern Australia in the second half of the year

* Decreased cloud and low rainfall

* Worsening heat extremes for cities such as Adelaide and Melbourne, increase in extreme hot days and heatwaves further north

* Increased frost

* Increased bushfire risk

* Fewer tropical cyclones, especially for Queensland

* Later northern monsoon rains

* Below-average wet season rains early

* Reduced winter snowfall

However over at France, the increase in temperature has been good for champagne maker. http://www.straitstimes.com/lifestyle/food/global-warming-good-for-champagne-makers-so-far

The 1.2°C increase in temperatures in the region over the past 30 years has reduced frost damage. It has also added one degree in the level of alcohol and reduced acidity. Harvesting in Champagne has been brought forward by two weeks on average over the past 30 years. And while drought has slashed output in other areas of agriculture, the chalky Champagne soil has water retention properties that have so far been able to temper the impact. And to fight dry weather, winemakers also use techniques such as removing grass competing for water in vineyards or keep more leaves to protect grapes from the sun.

Climate change affects rice cultivation.

Look at how climate change affects production of rice.