Week 5

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers (3-1) vs. LOS ANGELES RAMS (3-1)

Thursday October 1 @ 8:15 P.M. ET on Amazon Prime

For the second week in a row, an NFC West rivalry matchup will take center stage on Thursday Night Football. Just like last week, this game presents early postseason implications that could determine who has a stronger chance of winning the division. From the perspective of the Rams, this is a quick business trip at home. As for the 49ers, they need to make sure that they do not lose any more key guys.

San Francisco knew that they let a winnable game at home fall out of their hands on Sunday. The offense committed four turnovers against the Jaguars, the team currently leading the league in takeaways. Three of them led to 17 points and the last one ended the game. The defense showed some vulnerabilities early on, but did not let Trevor Lawrence reach the end zone after halftime. The only time that Jacksonville did score in that period was off a punt return from Parker Washington. They should know that against this Rams team, the last thing they can do is give the ball away again. However, here is the question: who else do the 49ers have left? Brock Purdy is still bothered by the toe injury, Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings are long-shots of playing on Thursday, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk are still on injured reserve, and Nick Bosa is obviously out for the rest of the year. Besides Christian McCaffrey, the only reliable weapons Kyle Shanahan has on offense are Jake Tonges and Demarcus Robinson. Now they have to take on a top ten defense in four days. This team might be 3-1 but it has come at a price and if San Francisco cannot get their top players on the field Thursday, then this is going to be an extremely long night.

The Rams are in a less difficult situation because they are coming off a win and they get to play in their home building on four days rest. Last year, they swept the 49ers for the first time since 2018. While it is likely impossible to happen two years in a row, LA matches up extremely well against their most hated division rival and they have the ingredients to steal the division. Even then, this is not going to be an easy night. Robert Saleh happens to have a pretty strong defense himself, but the one thing that they have struggled with is slowing down the run. Just look at how Travis Etienne gashed them on Sunday. Fortunately, the Rams still have a top five running back in Kyren Williams, yet he has had a tough time getting in the end zone so far with only two touchdowns. We know that their defense is capable of slowing down a brittle San Francisco offense, but if Sean McVay can make Williams a key focal point of the gameplan, then LA has a stronger chance of putting this game away down the stretch.

FINAL LOCK: This was not too hard of a choice to make, but I am picking the Rams to win. They are home on a short week, they are healthier, and I believe their offense will take care of the football better. We have seen Purdy struggle when the 49ers are not at full strength and I think that will continue on Thursday night.

FINAL SCORE: LA 30-20

LONDON ACTION:

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (2-2) vs. CLEVELAND BROWNS (0-4)

Sunday October 5 @ 9:30 A.M. ET on NFL Network

Just one week after playing in Ireland, the Vikings will take a quick trip to London for another international showdown, this time against the Cleveland Browns. However, the biggest story surrounding this matchup is a quarterback change on the other sideline.

Right now, the Browns are 0-4 and they are already entering a lost season. Joe Flacco has been one of the biggest reasons why, throwing just two touchdown passes and six interceptions! Through four games, this offense has scored the second fewest points in the league and head coach Kevin Stefanski knew that they needed a spark badly. That is why he made the decision to bench Flacco for the rookie Dillon Gabriel. However, who knows if this team is going to get dramatically better overnight? The best case scenario for Cleveland is that they play exactly the way the Giants did against the Chargers last week and pull off a shocking upset, but that is expecting almost everything to go right. There is no question that the Browns defense has been relatively solid, but if their offense can finally play with some energy and confidence, then an upset could be in the works! 

The hope is that Vikings quarterback JJ McCarthy will return to practice this week, but because he is dealing with a high ankle sprain, it would not be surprising if Carson Wentz made his third straight start of the season. Either way, they might be in for a long Sunday if this offense runs into a brick wall. The Browns are still the best rushing defense in the league and are letting up the fourth fewest passing yards, yet they are 24th in points. The biggest reason why is because Cleveland has the second worst turnover differential in the league, meaning that their offense gives up the ball more than their defense takes it away. This game is going to come down to which team will not screw up at the worst possible time, so regardless of who is starting for Minnesota, the quarterback cannot be the biggest reason why this team loses in embarrassing fashion.

FINAL LOCK: This is going to be a low-scoring game with both defenses playing at their best, but as I said before, it will come down to which offense will show up at the most important points of the game. Looking at how both teams are constructed, I trust the Vikings more, but it will be really close.  

FINAL SCORE: MIN 23-17

THE 1:00 SLATE:

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (1-3) vs. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (3-1)

The Colts are hoping to shake off their first loss of the season with a bounce-back performance at home, but the Raiders are eager to end their three game losing streak and get back in the win column. This is going to be a feisty matchup between old rivals, so this is strictly going to come down to who wants it more than the other. 

In their loss to the Rams last week, Indianapolis did well running the football, but what killed them were three turnovers. Las Vegas might not have an outstanding defense, yet if there is anybody that can disrupt the game and flip it upside down, it is Maxx Crosby. For the Colts to win, Daniel Jones is going to need to have a clean game and make sure the ball is not in harm’s way. However, the exact same thing can be said for the other quarterback on the opposing sideline.

So far, Geno Smith has not played well this year. He is leading the league in interceptions with seven, despite throwing for the eighth most yards. If anybody has to play at their absolute best for the Raiders to win, it is him. The only reason why they were still alive against the Bears last week was because of Ashton Jeanty and it was only fitting that they lost off a blocked field goal. There is no question that this offense can move the ball down the field against a so-so defense, but if they make one little-slip up, it is going to swing the momentum in the other direction and it is going to result in another frustrating loss.

FINAL LOCK: This game can honestly go either way because both teams have respectable head coaches and they have pieces that will do their best to take it down to the wire, but because the Colts have the home field advantage, I have to slightly lean towards them. It is going to come down to which quarterback will minimize their mistakes, and as crazy as I sound saying this, I think Daniel Jones can outplay Geno Smith in that regard.

FINAL SCORE: IND 23-20

NEW YORK GIANTS (1-3) vs. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (0-4)

It is no surprise that these two teams are near the bottom of the standings entering week five, but after Jaxson Dart blossomed in his debut in a win over the Chargers, the Giants just might have a hopeful future ahead of them. However, the Saints are hoping to finally get their first victory under their belt and one more defeat might signal a massive change to their roster in order to light a spark.

Spencer Rattler has still not won a game as a starting quarterback, but outside of week three against the Seahawks, it is not like he has been completely terrible. He has thrown five touchdown passes and just one interception, yet his first four games this year resulted in losses. It is very easy to see what has been holding the Saints back: any time a win is in their grasp, they fail to close on their chances. On opening week against the Cardinals, a game tying touchdown pass to Juwan Johnson on the final drive got lodged out of his hands. The following Sunday against San Francisco, two turnovers late in the fourth quarter sealed the deal. Two weeks later, a potential go-ahead touchdown pass to Brandin Cooks was dropped and the Bills pulled away in the final minutes of the fourth quarter. The minute that New Orleans can get a lead late and find ways to show up in the clutch, then they can finally win their first game of the year. They definitely proved they have a lot of heart, but they cannot constantly come up short week after week.

In his first NFL start, Jaxson Dart showed a lot of promise, but definitely room for improvement. He totaled 165 yards of scrimmage and scored two touchdowns, but was also sacked five times. Now that the Saints have tape on him, there is a strong chance he might struggle more, especially without Malik Nabers for the rest of the season. However, if he settles in early and takes what the defense is giving him, then there is no question that his numbers will improve. The Superdome is one of the toughest places to play in the NFL, and if he can withstand the crowd noise, then it shows that he has the guts to be a franchise quarterback.

FINAL LOCK: I am truly expecting this to be a back-and-forth showdown because both teams are desperate to get their seasons moving in the right direction. They each have their flaws on both sides of the ball, yet a good amount of pieces that can score the points that are needed to win. I like Jaxson Dart, but the Saints are home and their defense is slightly better than the one the Giants have. Because of that, I think New Orleans can hang on and give Rattler his first win.

FINAL SCORE: NO 24-21

DALLAS COWBOYS (1-2-1) vs. NEW YORK JETS (0-4)

The Jets are in a bit of a bind right now at 0-4. Their season is not going great, their offense has a low ceiling, and the defense is having a tough time gelling. However, if there is one game where they are expected to play well, it is this one at home against the Dallas Cowboys. I am not saying that this will be an upset, but if Justin Fields cannot have a strong game against this defense, then they do not deserve to have a winning record.

The Cowboys did not beat the Packers on Sunday, nor did they lose. It was a 40-40 tie. For the record, CeeDee Lamb was out with an ankle injury. If he is not cleared to play this week, then that will be a loss because he is a vital piece to their offense, but Dallas clearly proved that their offense would be just as potent without him against a tougher Packers squad. We all know what that group is capable of as long as Dak Prescott is under center, but their defense is atrocious. They allow 421 yards per game, 297 passing yards a week, and 33 points a night. All of which are ranked near the very bottom in the league. You can scapegoat defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus all you want, but anybody could be in this position with this little depth on all three levels. If they cannot figure out how to stop an offense that relies on the run and Garrett Wilson, then Dallas is going to have to hope that their quarterback bails them out once again, which is not the sign of a healthy team.

Last week against the Dolphins, two things got in the way of a potential upset: turnovers and penalties. The Jets coughed it up three times, leading to two of the three touchdowns their defense allowed. They also got flagged 13 times for 106 yards, even more frustrating. New York is absolutely capable of pulling off the upset, but besides finding a way to unlock the passing game, they cannot get in their own way for a fifth straight week. One turnover or unnecessary penalty down the stretch and the Cowboys are stealing their first road victory of the year. 

FINAL LOCK: Dak Prescott might be the better quarterback over Justin Fields, but I am not going to be surprised in the slightest if the Jets find a way to win their first game of the year because the Cowboys defense is just that atrocious. However, just six years ago, Dallas handed the Jets their first victory of the season with Sam Darnold coming back from mono. It would not be shocking for history to repeat itself, especially since Fields is a more mobile quarterback that can steal a game or two with his legs.

FINAL SCORE: NY 33-30

DENVER BRONCOS (2-2) vs. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (4-0)

The Eagles might be undefeated right now, but I am seeing a carbon copy of the 2023 season. Their defense might not be as awful now as it was that season, but their first four victories have been too close to call, so the Broncos are in an interesting position entering this road matchup. At the same time, however, they have not won a game in Philadelphia since 1986. History might not be on their side, but in what should be a defensive slugfest, these quarterbacks are going to have to step up in a big way for their teams to come through with the win.

If anybody is under the most pressure to get the victory, it is Philadelphia because their passing game has been absolutely awful. Forget the fact that AJ Brown is barely getting involved. They are only averaging 138 passing yards per game, which is the second worst in the NFL behind the Tennessee Titans. I understand that the Eagles had a tremendous second half against the Rams in week three, but those were the only two quarters where it looked like they had a pulse. Now they are welcoming a Broncos defense that has allowed the second fewest points in the league, recently holding the Bengals to three on Monday Night Football. Unfortunately, if you are frustrated that Brown is barely getting the ball, then expect that feeling to continue since he is going to most likely be matched up against the reigning Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain II. We all know Saquon Barkley is going to do whatever it takes to have a good game, but somebody like DeVonta Smith or Dallas Goedert needs to have a performance of the ages for the Eagles to hold a lead. Otherwise, they better pray that Bo Nix throws three interceptions against their defense.

Bo Nix has been up-and-down to start the season. One week, he looks promising, and the next he is holding the team back from their true potential. The former needs to be accomplished for Denver to pull off the upset, or else this game is going to get ugly pretty fast. The Philadelphia defense is not as strong as they were last year, but it is still an opportunistic group that can turn the tide if they get their hands on the ball. Just ask the Tampa Bay Buccaneers what happened last week. This Broncos offense does not have to score 30 points to win, but they have to do enough and make sure they do not screw up. Once they can do that, then an upset might be in their hands.

FINAL LOCK: If this were in Denver, I would give the Broncos a real shot of winning. However, I doubt that an upset is going to take place in Lincoln Financial Field this early in the season. I do not expect this to be a pretty game but I trust Jalen Hurts to make safer plays than Bo Nix, who can be careless with the football at times.

FINAL SCORE: PHI 20-17

MIAMI DOLPHINS (1-3) vs. CAROLINA PANTHERS (1-3)

Miami finally got their first win of the season, but it did come at a heavy price as they lost Tyreek Hill due to a gruesome knee injury. Fortunately, they will be going against a very weak Panthers defense that just got demolished 42-13 to the New England Patriots on the road. However, they also shut out the Falcons in their home opener 30-0, so could the Dolphins be the next victim to get caught in the trap?

Mike McDaniel better hope that is not the case, especially if they turn the ball over the way the Falcons did a couple weeks ago. Hill might be a huge loss to their offense, but it is not like he was the only person giving them life. They still have an explosive back in De’von Achane, a dynamic receiver that will have opportunities to be a number one option in Jaylen Waddle, and a couple other depth pieces that are ready to step up. As long as they do not turn the ball over or set themselves back with too many penalties, the Dolphins will be in good shape. However, the defense is always the biggest question mark.

Anthony Weaver’s group did a lot better against the Jets than they did in their first three games of the year and the expectation is that they pick up where they left off. Bryce Young has not shown any improvement since the second half of last season and while injuries can be a big reason why, that should not be an excuse for a third year quarterback. If he cannot perform well against this Miami defense, it is unacceptable and head coach Dave Canales is going to be put in a tough position. 

FINAL LOCK: I am hoping that both offenses look promising and play well enough to win, but when it comes down to the two former Alabama quarterbacks, I have to trust Tua more in this matchup. Unless he gets hurt again, which nobody wants to see, then it is going to take a Herculean effort from Young for Carolina to pull this victory off and I do not trust him to make it happen.

FINAL SCORE: MIA 28-24

HOUSTON TEXANS (1-3) vs. BALTIMORE RAVENS (1-3)

Somebody out of these two teams is going to be 1-4 at the end of the week. That is absolutely horrible. The Ravens can blame their terrible defense, the amount of injuries they suffered, and Derrick Henry fumbling the ball. The Texans can scapegoat, well, anybody. This is a must-win matchup for both sides because the loser is going to immediately fall out of the playoff hunt and they might not get back there unless every single thing goes right.

Baltimore has enough problems as it is, but they are going to be without a ton of guys on Sunday. Lamar Jackson is dealing with a hamstring injury. Marlon Humphrey and Roquan Smith are expected to miss multiple weeks. Ronnie Stanley and Nate Wiggins left last week’s game against the Chiefs due to their ailments. Nnamdi Madubuike was just ruled out for the season with a neck injury and Kyle Van Noy has missed the last three weeks. If Cooper Rush is the starting quarterback, then he better hope that he does not screw up the team’s chances of winning. The Texans defense is now the best scoring unit in football with a boatload of playmakers on all three levels, so Rush has to make sure the ball is out quick and that Henry does not get underutilized for the Ravens to barely squeak out with the win. They are at home, so there is absolutely no excuse.

CJ Stroud looked a lot better last week than he did in the first three games of the season. Even if it was against the Titans, he has a chance to have an even better showing against a Ravens defense that is both atrocious and battered. If not, then this will probably be his worst loss of the year, solely based on the circumstances. In his last three matchups against Baltimore, he has failed to score a touchdown. This season, they are allowing the second most points out of anybody else in the league. There is absolutely no excuse for Stroud to not have a big showing, and if that is the case, then the front office has serious soul-searching they need to do throughout these next few months.

FINAL LOCK: The Texans have not won a game at M&T Bank Stadium in their history as a franchise, but they have an opportunity to end that losing streak. If Lamar Jackson is not cleared to play, then Houston has nobody else to blame but themselves if they cannot get the job done. Derrick Henry is going to need to have a big day against this strong Houston front because if he gets shut down, then I do not believe Cooper Rush is capable of winning this game by himself.

FINAL SCORE: HOU 20-10

THE 4:05/4:25 SLATE:

TENNESSEE TITANS (0-4) vs. ARIZONA CARDINALS (2-2)

This is going to be a close game. I don’t know how many points each team will score or if it will come down to a walkoff field goal. The Titans are going to make this a close game, but they will come up just short. This is what the Cardinals have done all season long, and in their two wins against inferior opponents, they barely got away in games they should have won handily. 

If you are Kyler Murray or anybody else on that Arizona offense, there is no excuse for them to struggle against an underwhelming Titans defense that has allowed the fourth most points in football. Both teams are also prone to committing a lot of penalties, so that cannot be an issue for the Cardinals, especially in the second half. Otherwise, Cam Ward might have his first breakout game of his NFL career. It is bound to happen at some point, but he is going up against a really strong defense, so nothing can be truly guaranteed right now.

Rushing the passer is not the biggest strength for the Cardinals, but it needs to come alive against one of the worst offensive lines in football. Ward has been sacked 17 times, the most in the NFL. Somebody on this Arizona front is going to need to have a big day, whether it is Josh Sweat or Baron Browning. Heck, if Darius Robinson can finally play at his potential, that is great too! Once the pass rush comes alive, then there will not be a ton of pressure on their secondary. Even then, the Titans have the worst statistical passing attack in football with a mediocre receiving group at best.

FINAL LOCK: Even if this turns out to be a close and ugly football game, I still think the Cardinals will hang on. They have a slightly more efficient offense, even without James Conner, but I trust their defense to set the tone early and make sure that their lead is not lost in the final minutes.

FINAL SCORE: ARI 23-17

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (3-1) vs. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (3-1)

Two of the top three picks in the 2018 NFL Draft will go head-to-head in what should be an exciting grudge match and if Seattle wins, then they will be in the driver’s seat for the lead in the NFC West! They are favored by three and a half points to beat the Buccaneers, who happen to be in first place in their respective division, but the amount of injuries they have might be a bit much to overcome.

It is bad enough that Tampa does not have Mike Evans, two starting offensive linemen, and Calijah Kancey. Before Sunday’s game against Philadelphia, Baker Mayfield was questionable with a biceps injury. Now they might not get their best running back Bucky Irving due to a foot sprain. That is going to be a big loss, especially this week against a really strong Seahawks defense that is allowing the third fewest points in the NFL. Fortunately, Tampa still has Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin, two receivers that can definitely have their way with Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon. However, Seattle also has one of the best front fours with 12 sacks for the season, one that can absolutely torment a fragile Buccaneers offensive line. Mayfield is going to need to show some guts for sixty straight minutes and not screw up along the way or else Darnold will capitalize on his opportunities.

Tampa Bay does not exactly have the strongest defense. Like many years under Todd Bowles’ control, they are exceptional at shutting down the run, but leave a lot to be desired against the pass. Seattle has two quality backs in Zach Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker III, while their most dynamic receiver is Jaxon Smith-Njigba. If the Buccaneers are on the field too long, then it will only be a matter of time where they wear down and tap out. All their offense has to do is not turn the ball over. 

FINAL LOCK: I personally think this game can go either way since both teams have been really good to start the season but I am going to roll with the healthier one and pick the Seahawks to win at home. Mayfield was on pace to pull off his fourth straight game winning drive but failed to close the deal against Philadelphia and unfortunately for him, this Seattle defense is not an easier one to line across. Both he and Sam Darnold will be under a lot of pressure to get a fourth win under their belts, but neither one can afford to make a mistake or else the momentum will swing the other way in a hurry.

FINAL SCORE: SEA 27-24

DETROIT LIONS (3-1) vs. CINCINNATI BENGALS (2-2)

From a historical perspective, this is a trap game for the Lions because they have lost their last seven straight matchups against the Cincinnati Bengals and have not won a road game against this team since 1992. However, Detroit did not fall into the trap against Cleveland last week the way that Green Bay did earlier this season.

If you are the Detroit Lions, there is nothing extra that you need to do to win this game. They have the elite running back tandem, the explosive passing attack, one of the best offensive lines in football, and a defense that is second in sacks. All they have to do is not get in their own way because the Bengals have not been good this year without Joe Burrow. Against the Broncos on Monday Night Football, Cincinnati could not even cross midfield after the opening drive as they got embarrassed on national television. They only total 205 yards per game, dead last in the league. They are the third worst in both passing and scoring, but more importantly, they are the worst rushing team in the league. It is no surprise that their defense is still bad, but when the offense cannot do anything on the field, then it is no wonder that they got blown out in their last two losses.

FINAL LOCK: If Joe Burrow was healthy, then I would give Cincinnati an advantage, but I think Detroit can end their losing streak against a team that is starting to fall apart at the worst possible time. The Lions will be better coached and more mentally prepared since they have the trust and belief in one another, while the Bengals are expecting a different result by doing the same things over and over.

FINAL SCORE: DET 34-16

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (2-2) vs. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (3-1)

This is a must win game for both teams as they are coming off unfortunate losses, but the Commanders are in a more desperate situation because they need Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin back on the football field. The Chargers ran into a stunning trap game as they fell to the winless Giants by three points, but it was a winnable situation that fell out of their hands. This will simply come down to who wants the victory more, so if Daniels is officially cleared to return, then we are in for a fun showdown.

Daniels is going to be given a tough test in his return because Los Angeles has the fourth best scoring defense and they are fifth in the league in sacks. If Washington cannot run the football, which is going to be their bread and butter on Sunday afternoon, then this offense is prone to be one-dimensional. If the Giants could win on the ground, then there is no excuse for the Commanders to not do the same. If Terry McLaurin is not healthy enough to play, then that is even worse. The gameplan for the Chargers is to make the reigning Rookie of the Year beat them with his arm instead of his legs, so if Daniels can withstand that pressure, then this will be a well-earned valiant performance. 

This has to be a bounce-back performance for Justin Herbert if the Chargers want to return to the win column. Washington has a very mediocre defense, meaning that they are decent at times, yet they have not even come close to proving that they are a feared unit. Herbert threw two interceptions against the Giants last week and those mistakes were the biggest reasons why LA lost, so if he can have a clean game this time around, then there is no question that they will get back on track.

FINAL LOCK: I have the Chargers winning at home and I personally do not see this being particularly close. Jayden Daniels definitely makes the Commanders better, yet the team just has too many holes that I believe will get exploited on Sunday afternoon. It is going to take a near perfect afternoon for Washington to pull off the upset, but Jim Harbaugh is going to make sure his team is prepared for the challenge coming their way.

FINAL SCORE: LA 30-22