Week 14

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:

DALLAS COWBOYS (6-5-1) vs. DETROIT LIONS (7-5)

Thursday Dec. 4 @ 8:15 p.m. on Amazon Prime

This is the first time in two months where we’re going to have a watchable game on Thursday Night Football. Ironically, the Cowboys are the ones with more of the momentum while the Lions are in desperate need of a victory to save their season from disaster. I have a strong feeling it’s going to be a strong grudge match until the better end so let’s see which team wants it more.

In the span of four days, Dallas has beaten the two defending conference champions at JerryWorld: the Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs. Since the trade deadline, their offense has been elite while the defense looks like one of the most improved units in the leagues. It is definitely one of the best mid-season turnarounds thus far and if they continue to build on their momentum, they can definitely end their 30+ year drought of reaching a conference championship at the very least. Their goal on Thursday night should be very simple: to pick up where they left off. Detroit’s secondary is still incredibly banged up. They just placed Terrion Arnold on injured reserve and they will also be without Kerby Joseph. Those are going to be two huge losses as the Lions have to face one of the best receiving duos in the league featuring CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Detroit needs to adopt a “next man” up mentality on that side of the ball because Aidan Hutchinson cannot do it alone. Yet, that is not even my main focus of the night.

I understand that the Lions offense has been dealing with key losses on that side of the ball as well. Amon-Ra St. Brown won’t play because of an ankle injury, Sam LaPorta has been on injured reserve and won’t return, and Frank Ragnow tried to come out of retirement only for him to fail his physical. Yet that is not why they don’t have a playoff spot right now. They have had more than a few winnable games in their control but Detroit kept getting in their own way in all three and the result was a self-inflicted defeat. Since the trade deadline, the Cowboys have been fantastic at shutting down the run, which is ironic considering that was the team’s reason why they traded away Micah Parsons. Now Jahmyr Gibbs is the fourth leading rusher in the NFL, but without St. Brown in the fold, who is going to be the next man to step up? The obvious choice should be Jameson Williams and he is certainly capable of having a big night, but younger players like Tom Kennedy and Isaac TeSlaa are going to have larger roles for a must win game. If not, then the struggles on the offensive line are going to continue and Jared Goff might stumble into another painful loss at home.

FINAL LOCK: So far, the Lions have been undefeated in games after a loss, but it is going to be insanely difficult to keep that streak alive without their best wide receiver and two of their starting defensive backs. As much as I don’t want to see Detroit fail yet again, they keep doing this to themselves and I feel that the Cowboys are going to get some payback after getting ripped apart by the Lions 47-9 at Dallas last year. 

FINAL SCORE: DAL 34-20

THE 1:00 SLATE:

MIAMI DOLPHINS (5-7) vs. NEW YORK JETS (3-9)

Let’s see here, we have two teams in the AFC East that weirdly have an incredible amount of false hope, yet their chances of succeeding look slim. Yeah, this should be a fun game to watch. Only one of them will feel validated so it will be interesting to see who wins on Sunday.

This might not be saying much, but the Dolphins are the more legitimate team in this matchup. They have won four out of their last five games and one more will get them to just a game back from 500. On one hand, I’m frustrated because I’m wondering where the heck this was earlier in the season. On the other hand, I’m happy the players haven’t given up on Mike McDaniel and they’re still doing their best to win games. The only thing I ask is for them to look more convincing than they did the week before. Yes they beat the Saints at home, like we expected, yet it felt like Miami was doing everything to lose that game. They were up 16-0 at halftime, only for them to score three points the rest of the way and give New Orleans chance after chance to pull off an upset. Thankfully, Minkah Fitzpatrick prevented a choke job with a “pick two” on a game-tying two point conversion attempt and the defense held on, despite a brain fart from the special teams on an onside kick. Let’s just hope the weather is not too cold because if that is the case, then the Dolphins might be in trouble.

Sometimes I don’t understand why Jets fans are still bothering to have faith in their football team, but then again watching Tyrod Taylor is a million times better than seeing Justin Fields fail to throw a football accurately. This offense looked sharp in the second half against a really good Falcons defense on Sunday and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them do the same one week later with the Dolphins coming to town. I think the one way for New York to have the game in their control is for them to run the football with Breece Hall. Miami’s defense has been impressive against a couple of the best rushing teams in the league like Atlanta and Buffalo. Yet, they are still the fourth worst defense against the run this year. If the Jets can dominate in the trenches, added with a mistake-free performance by Taylor, then a win is possible. However, a couple turnovers could swing the game in the opposite direction.

FINAL LOCK: Tua Tagovailoa is still undefeated against the Jets and despite an up-and-down season for him, he is still capable of beating some of the worst teams in the league. All Miami has to do is the exact opposite of what they did last week. They need to convert on third down, they have to win in the red area and they cannot stumble in the second half. If they accomplish those three tasks, the Dolphins will win.

FINAL SCORE: MIA 27-13

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (6-6) vs. BALTIMORE RAVENS (6-6)

It says something when the AFC North is the weakest division entering Week 14. It’s not surprising that the winner will come down between the Ravens and Steelers again, but both teams look absolutely exhausted right now and it’s only a matter of time before one of them flames out in the postseason.

Watching this Steelers offense over the last two months has been absolutely depressing. You watch Aaron Rodgers take three steps back in the pocket and you can just tell he is nowhere near 100%. In his last four games, he has thrown for over 200 yards only once. Against the Bills on Sunday, he completed 10 out of 21 passes for 117 yards. The offense just looks washed up and lifeless, which is the worst case scenario for a team playing on the road in a must-win game. However, the Ravens haven’t looked particularly dominant as well.

Over the last three weeks, Baltimore’s offense has looked really flat. Two ugly wins against the Browns and Jets were concerning, but turning it over five times and looking incredibly one-dimensional against Cincinnati at home was alarming. You can say Lamar Jackson is hobbled and banged up, but why be on the field if he is this hurt? Last week, the Ravens didn’t prioritize the running game. Some of it is justified because Derrick Henry got a heavy workload in the past seven weeks, but Baltimore needs to go back to using old-school tactics against a run defense that allowed over 250 yards against Buffalo. More importantly, they need their quarterback to have an incredible performance. He only scored one touchdown in the month of November and even if the injuries are as bad as reported, he cannot be the biggest reason why this team misses out on a playoff spot. Otherwise, the Ravens might do the unthinkable and make massive changes just to try to get over the hump.

FINAL LOCK: In any game between the Steelers and Ravens, you know you are going to get a gritty defensive dogfight that will come down to the wire. Because Baltimore’s defense has been better over the last few weeks than Pittsburgh, I am going to give them the slight edge. However, I also have more faith in Lamar Jackson to gut out a few more plays to help the team win than Aaron Rodgers, who is probably just waiting to retire already.

FINAL SCORE: BAL 17-10

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (2-10) vs. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (7-5)

Although this game should be a blowout on the surface, something tells me that we’re going to get another close finish between two scrappy division rivals. After all, Spencer Rattler had the Buccaneers on the ropes with a 16-6 lead at halftime before Baker Mayfield rallied the team back to win the NFC South. Now that Tyler Shough is the new starting quarterback for the Saints, it will be interesting to see how the team looks against the class of the division.

Tampa’s offense was okay on Sunday against the Cardinals. They had a couple of promising touchdowns, including one to Tristan Wirfs near the end of the first half, but let Arizona hang around for a little longer than desired. The last time they played the Saints, only one offensive touchdown was scored, but they still won by 20 points as Rattler got benched and Shough took over. New Orleans’ passing defense has quietly improved as they have given up the seventh fewest yards in that category, but they are still near the bottom of the pack in rushing and points allowed. For Tampa to win, they need to run the ball well and Baker Mayfield must have a mistake-free performance. Once they get off to a strong start early, then they don’t need to do too much for the rest of the afternoon.

It’ll be interesting to see which Tyler Shough we are going to get on Sunday: the one who looked promising against the Carolina Panthers or the one who didn’t look ready to be a starting quarterback against teams like Atlanta or Miami. Todd Bowles is going to throw a bunch of different disguises and looks that will catch the rookie quarterback off guard. We know Tampa is going to shut down the run because they are one of the best defenses in doing that, so Shough will have a lot of pressure riding on his shoulders entering Raymond James Stadium. If the defense forces a takeaway or two, the offense needs to capitalize on them with points with touchdowns. If they get into a groove on a drive, they need to finish and not kill their momentum with self-inflicted mistakes. 

FINAL LOCK: I believe the Buccaneers will pull off the sweep, but it might be by the skin of their teeth. At the end of the day, I trust Baker Mayfield to make one or two plays down the stretch to seal the deal and more importantly, I don’t think their defense will fall apart at the worst possible time. They did it last week against Jacoby Brissett and I don’t expect much to change with the Saints marching into town.

FINAL SCORE: TB 23-16

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (8-4) vs. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (8-4)

Even though this is the first of two meetings between these division rivals, it is going to determine who will have the upper leg in the division. The Jaguars have won three in a row and will now welcome a team they haven’t lost to at home in 11 years: the Indianapolis Colts. They have lost three out of their last four games and one more loss could signal a downward spiral. This is a must win for both teams and it is simply going to come down to who wants it more.

It’s weird to think about but since they blew a 29-10 lead to Davis Mills and the Houston Texans, the Jaguars have played well-executed complimentary football. The offense has not run itself over and the defense looks sturdy, so whatever Liam Coen said in the locker room after that loss really had to resonate with everybody in that locker room, including himself. Does this mean Jacksonville is the biggest team to fear in the AFC? Not necessarily. However, as long as the offense does not play over their heads and just stick to the script, they can do enough to win. 

I understand that Daniel Jones is reportedly playing through a fractured fibula and I somewhat respect him for going out there and trying to gut it out. Having said that, not only does it hurt the team more than help them, it’s not the biggest reason why Indianapolis has been in a slump. This won’t be the first time I say this and I’ve been consistent in this position, but when Jonathan Taylor doesn’t have an outstanding performance, their quarterback is more of a complimentary piece than a game changer. They have promising pass catchers, yes, but it doesn’t take too long for opposing defenses to make this group one-dimensional. That’s why I fear Indianapolis is going to walk into another trap and not get out until it is too late. The Jaguars defense is tied for third in takeaways, they’re 12th in points allowed and most importantly, they’re number one in rushing yards allowed! The only way the Colts are going to end their losing streak in Duval is if Taylor has the game of his life and if he cannot, then Jones is going to be under the most pressure to win.

FINAL LOCK: Because the Jaguars have not lost a home game to the Colts since 2014, the only way I’ll believe this streak will end is if I actually see it myself. I am hoping that Jones doesn’t have a terrible performance, but if Indianapolis cannot run the ball, then I don’t have a lot of faith in him to carry them to victory.

FINAL SCORE: JAX 31-20

TENNESSEE TITANS (1-11) vs. CLEVELAND BROWNS (3-9)

Here we go again; an unwatchable game featuring the Tennessee Titans. If there is one positive thing I will say, I don’t see this being a blowout, but I think we all know who has a better chance of winning.

I think the only way the Titans can actually get their second win of the season is if the defense forces Shadeur Sanders to have the worst game of his career so far. It’s not completely impossible because we still don’t have a big sample size to know what type of quarterback he can be in this league. One way to start is to shut down the run, meaning that Tennessee has to take Quinshon Judkins out of the gameplan. Once that happens, then they squeeze the pocket and keep Sanders contained from scrambling around. I have faith that this defense can have a strong afternoon, but their offense is a totally different discussion.

Cam Ward is still the most sacked quarterback in the league this year and now he has to deal with the eventual two-time Defensive Player of the Year for a three hour ballgame. This Titans offense is the worst in the NFL. They cannot run the football, they don’t have any dynamic playmakers, their offensive line is egregious and the quarterback just gets sent out to the field to get destroyed every week. If the Browns had a top five offense in the league, this preview would only be two paragraphs long. However, for Tennessee to avoid yet another humiliating defeat, it’s time for Ward to remind us why he was the first overall pick. It’s way easier said than done against this defense, but enough is enough.

FINAL LOCK: I can see this game being really close, but in the eyes of a lot of people, it will be unwatchable considering that both teams have two of the worst offenses in the league. We all know this will be an incredibly low-scoring game, yet I have more faith in Cleveland’s defense to be the more physical and dominating unit.

FINAL SCORE: CLE 20-10

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (3-9) vs. MINNESOTA VIKINGS (4-8)

Last year, this game would have been one of the most exciting NFC matchups of the season. Unfortunately, both teams are in absolute purgatory right now for different reasons. It feels like I’m going to be watching that matchup between Washington and the Atlanta Falcons from 2013, but this one just feels more painful.

Minnesota’s biggest flaw is very simple: they don’t have a quarterback. JJ McCarthy has mainly been awful in the games he has played, Carson Wentz is out for the year with a shoulder injury and Max Brosmer clearly proved he doesn’t have what it takes to play in the NFL. I feel so bad for Justin Jefferson that he has to deal with this every week, along with the rest of the incredibly talented playmakers on this offense. I especially feel sorry for head coach Kevin O’Connell because he wasn’t expecting this season to go completely downhill. Normally, I would say this week is a good chance for them to get back on the right track because Washington’s defense has underachieved this year, but the Vikings offense is not in a different situation. They lead the league in pre-snap penalties, they’re the fourth worst passing team, they’re in the bottom ten in rushing, they score the fifth fewest points and they commit the most turnovers! The minute Minnesota makes one slip-up, the Commanders are not going to make this an even contest!

Jayden Daniels is slowly starting to come back from that dislocated elbow he suffered in Week 9 against the Seahawks, but he still hasn’t been cleared from contact. It’s too early to guarantee he will return for this particular matchup, so expect Marcus Mariota to get the nod again for now. The good news is that regardless of who the starting quarterback is, both of them have to be thrilled that Terry McLaurin came back from a quad injury last week. He clearly proved that he is a vital piece to this Washington offense and without him, there is literally no passing game. I’m curious to see how this group will look against the Vikings defense. They had Denver on the ropes last week but now the Commanders are on the road and Brian Flores is one of the most aggressive defensive minds in the league. His defense had a couple of stinkers against the Eagles and Chargers, but for the most part, the team’s struggles have not been his fault. All the Commanders have to do is just not turn the ball over at the worst time. More importantly, they have to show up in the clutch if the game is on the line because they failed to do that in their last two losses and it is going to be more painful if it happens a third consecutive week.

FINAL LOCK: Even if Daniels is not cleared to play, I still have faith that the Commanders can win. Terry McLaurin is back and the offense looks healthier, so if they can get in a solid rhythm, then there won’t be so much pressure on the defense to have a lights-out performance. JJ McCarthy should be cleared to return from concussion protocol, so the only way Minnesota can flip the script is if he steps up his game and has a surprisingly tremendous afternoon.

FINAL SCORE: WAS 24-14

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (9-3) vs. ATLANTA FALCONS (4-8)

I remember when games between these two teams used to be fun and exciting. Now it just feels like Seattle is going to win in a heartbeat every single time. If the Falcons didn't get humiliated by the Jets last week, I would have felt better about this particular matchup, but not anymore. 

Atlanta lost all sympathy from me after the defeat last Sunday. It wasn’t just the fact that the Jets beat them, but it’s because this season has been a catastrophic failure. They don’t have a first round pick next year, their offense is one of the worst units in the league despite having a bunch of star-studded talents, and now the defense is starting to slip up. Even if Michael Penix Jr. didn’t partially tear his ACL, I would be saying the same thing. This team needs to blow it up and start from scratch again. This includes firing Raheem Morris and Terry Fontenot. I’ve seen enough.

If you told me Sam Darnold was only going to throw for 128 yards and Jaxon Smith-Njigbha would catch just two passes, I’d say the Seahawks got shut down. However, they still won 26-0 against the Vikings thanks to five takeaways from the defense and a mistake-free afternoon by the offense. The gameplan for this week should involve the exact same formula. As long as Darnold does not screw up and know where to go with the football, Seattle should have all of the momentum from start to finish. I expect the defense to have their way with Kirk Cousins, especially if Drake London cannot play for a third straight week. They are still allowing the second fewest rushing yards in the league, so the minute Bijan Robinson gets shut down, the Falcons offense cannot go anywhere.

FINAL LOCK: I don’t see this as a close game. I believe Seattle is going to storm their way towards a 10th victory and take care of business on the road. As awful as this may sound for the Falcons, they did this to themselves.

FINAL SCORE: SEA 31-7

CINCINNATI BENGALS (4-8) vs. BUFFALO BILLS (8-4)

The final game of the 1:00 slate is going to be one of the best quarterback matchups of the season featuring Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. Ironically, the reigning MVP has yet to beat Burrow in a football game thus far, but that could change in a must-win matchup at home. However, the Cincinnati Bengals recently trampled the Baltimore Ravens on Thanksgiving 32-14, so they are playing with house money and a mentality that they have nothing to lose.

I truly don’t know which Bills offense we are going to get this week: either the one that convinces us they can win the AFC this year or the one that gets shut down by the likes of Miami and Houston. On the surface, Josh Allen should have one of the best games of his career against one of the worst defenses in the league without Trey Hendrickson, but Cincinnati had back-to-back impressive showings against Drake Maye and Lamar Jackson. One way I believe Buffalo can make sure they don’t fall into the same trap is if they continue to dominate the trenches the way they did last week against Pittsburgh. The Bills ran the ball 51 times and totaled nearly 250 yards. James Cook totaled 144 of those yards on 32 carries, so if he can have a similar afternoon at home against the second worst run defense in the NFL, then there is no question Buffalo can possess the ball for as long as they want. However, if this offense shuts down at the most unexpected time, then Joe Burrow might have a few tricks left up his sleeves.

There are many things the Bengals can do that the Bills defense has struggled with this year. For one, Chase Brown has shaken off the rust in the last six weeks and will now go up against the third worst rushing defense in football. He is going to need to have just as well of a game as Cook does because Buffalo’s secondary only allows 163 passing yards a week, the best in the NFL. Obviously, Cincinnati has one of the best receiving duos in the league featuring Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, but they cannot afford to have a one-dimensional afternoon. The Bengals are only two games behind the division lead, which is absolutely absurd to think about, so getting another upset win on the road could give this team the spark they need to run the table for the rest of the year.

FINAL LOCK: Everybody wants to make this game about the quarterbacks and rightfully so, but I think whoever can run the ball better will be the ones that get the win in the end. Joe Burrow is not afraid to enter a hostile environment and break everybody’s hearts, so Josh Allen and James Cook will need to put on a show for Buffalo’s playoff hopes to stay intact.

FINAL SCORE: BUF 34-31

THE 4:05/4:25 WINDOW:

DENVER BRONCOS (10-2) vs. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (2-10)

Hopefully, the Broncos look more convincing and legitimate in this matchup against the Raiders than the last time these teams played each other at Mile High. Then again, Denver only has two wins by multiple scores, so that might be asking for too much. 

It’s never wise to look past an opponent, especially one that only has two wins and are viewed as the second worst team in football, so the Broncos just need to make sure they don't do too much on either side. Bo Nix doesn’t have to be the hero or play over-aggressive. Their offense just needs to be balanced and efficient long enough so the defense can put the game out of reach. I’m not asking for Denver to win by 20 or 30 points, but I do expect them to take care of business on the road.

FINAL LOCK: This wasn’t too long of a preview because it’s just depressing to watch the Raiders play football at this point in the season. Their offense is abysmal, the defense is a patchwork group and the organization is just archaic and worn out. We knew Pete Carroll and Geno Smith weren’t going to make this team a playoff contender, but I don’t think anybody expected them to be this horrible this year.

FINAL SCORE: DEN 27-13

CHICAGO BEARS (9-3) vs. GREEN BAY PACKERS (8-3-1)

The NFL’s greatest rivalry will go head-to-head in two of the next three weeks. The first of these two matchups will take place at Lambeau Field. Chicago has the number one seed in the NFC, while Green Bay just swept the Detroit Lions, who won the division the last few seasons. The Bears won there the last time they played the Packers, albeit in a regular season finale against backups in the second half, but Chicago is not intimidated to play their most hated division rival. 

It’s very simple to understand how the Bears keep winning football games: they run the ball well, their defense is good at forcing takeaways and they come through in the clutch. However, this is going to be the biggest game of their lives, even more intimidating than it was to play the Eagles in Philadelphia on Black Friday. If you remember from Ben Johnson’s introductory press conference as the head coach, he made a sly comment saying that he enjoyed beating Packers head coach Matt LaFleur twice a year. Those words are going to come back to bite him if the Bears somehow lose this game. With that being said, more pressure is going to be on Caleb Williams than anybody else on the field. He has been a very streaky quarterback this year with more positives than negatives, but he needs to be the best player on that football field. This Packers defense is eighth against the run and sixth against the pass, so don’t be surprised if they throw a few curveballs at him to throw Williams off guard. But if he can withstand the pressure and put the team on his back, it will be the most signature performance of the young quarterback’s career.

On paper, the Packers should have the better football team. Jordan Love is the better quarterback, they have a more experienced head coach and their defense is statistically higher in almost every category. I believe if Love has a clean pocket, which is likely to happen considering he is the third least sacked quarterback in the NFL, then I believe he will operate at a high level. The only thing he cannot do is turn the ball over because he would be falling right into Chicago’s trap. I also believe Josh Jacobs is going to be a huge X factor because if the Packers can run the ball well, then who knows if the Bears can keep up? 

FINAL LOCK: In what I am hoping will be a long fight until the very end, I expect the Packers to hang on at home. At the end of the day, I have more faith in Jordan Love to show up in the fourth quarter than Caleb Williams and I think if the former gets the ball last, then the Bears better pray for another miracle. 

FINAL SCORE: GB 27-24

LOS ANGELES RAMS (9-3) vs. ARIZONA CARDINALS (3-9)

After a frustrating loss last week, the Rams are hoping to bounce back on the road against an inferior division rival. The Cardinals might be scrappy, but they have often come up short in the fourth quarter and unfortunately, they might not have a chance to win this one.

 Unfortunately, that loss to the Panthers forced him to lose the MVP lead after a three-turnover performance. Last Sunday was the first time Matthew Stafford had thrown an interception since Week 3 against the Philadelphia Eagles. This time, I expect him to have a cleaner game and for the Rams offense to get back on the right path. The Cardinals defense might be in the top ten in takeaways, but they are subpar in every other statistical category. As long as LA has a clean game and they return to what made them the best team in the league at one point in the season, they should be in great shape for a stronger performance in Glendale.

It’s clear and obvious why Arizona has the record they have right now. When they have a chance to win the game, they fold. Other times, they screw up early in the game and it usually leads to a blowout. Unfortunately, I feel like we will expect the latter. Despite Bryce Young having one of the best performances of his career, the Rams defense is still allowing the second fewest points in the NFL. The Cardinals offense has a couple of tremendous pass catchers in Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride, but it is all for naught if this offense can’t close the deal in the most important moments of the game. I say it every week but it takes near-perfection for this team to win and when they cannot, the team suffers as a result.

FINAL LOCK: At the end of the day, I believe the Rams are just a superior football team that will look like themselves again in what should be looked at as a simple business trip on the road. As long as they don’t turn the ball over the way they did last Sunday, they should make more than enough plays on both sides of the ball to win convincingly.

FINAL SCORE: LA 34-17