Week 12

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:

BUFFALO BILLS (7-3) vs. HOUSTON TEXANS (5-5)

Thursday Nov. 20 @ 8:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime

Josh Allen has yet to win a game in Houston, but the Texans have never won on Thursday Night Football. One of these two events will change after this week. CJ Stroud was not cleared from concussion protocol, so Davis Mills will be the starting quarterback for a second consecutive week, but the Bills are not exactly the Titans. 

Buffalo has flaws, yes, but they are at least equipped well enough to beat a Texans team that can still be shaky from week to week. Both defenses are going to do what they can to take away the rushing attacks, so this game will come down to which quarterback can guide their offenses down the field. We saw Josh Allen do just that against the Buccaneers on Sunday with six total touchdowns, but Mills is going to be under intense pressure to do the same for Houston. He cannot give the reigning MVP a short field at any point in the game because if that is the case, then Buffalo is going to make this another boring Thursday night. 

One extra factor that I think needs to be taken under consideration is how many penalties each team will take. Houston is ranked 12th in this category while Buffalo is 19th, which isn’t exactly a huge gap, but discipline and composure will be two important elements to watch. For the Texans, their margin of error is incredibly thin. They have an outstanding defense, but if their offense continues to stall out and set the team back, then the Bills will find a way to put the game out of reach down the stretch.

FINAL LOCK: I think some streaks have to end at some point and in this particular case, Josh Allen should finally manage to win a game at NRG Stadium. The Texans still don’t have CJ Stroud and on four days rest, I just don’t think their offense has enough to keep up for 60 straight minutes.

FINAL SCORE: BUF 30-13

THE 1:00 SLATE:

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (8-2) vs. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (5-5)

There aren’t too many exciting games in the Sunday afternoon window, but the 1 p.m. slate is giving us a fantastic matchup. Ironically, the Colts have one of the best records in the AFC, while the Chiefs are the ones at 500. Not only is this a must-win for Kansas City, but Indianapolis needs to prove that they can beat legitimate teams on the road. 

Granted, the Colts did beat the Chargers earlier this year. However, they also lost to the Rams in the same stadium and just a few weeks ago, they fell to Pittsburgh at Acrisure Stadium. Daniel Jones turned the ball over eight times in each of those defeats and now he is going up against one of the best defenses in the NFL at Arrowhead. The Chiefs give up the ninth fewest rushing yards in the league and knowing defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, they are going to do everything they can to take away Jonathan Taylor and make Jones win the game by himself. If that is the case, this has to be a huge game for the revived quarterback. If they make the tiniest of mistakes, Patrick Mahomes is not going to make this a close fight.

Indianapolis’ defense might not allow too many points, but they give up plenty of yards. The Chiefs might not be as potent as they had been in the last six years, but they have at least been solid at home this season. It is very rare to see a team quarterbacked by Mahomes to lose three games in a row and after a rough two-week stint on the road, this is going to be viewed as a huge bounce-back opportunity to keep their playoff hopes alive. 

FINAL LOCK: Many fans want to see the Colts win this game, but I have a strong feeling the Chiefs are going to get back on track. They are home, but most importantly, they have the better quarterback and a more experienced head coach. The only way I can see the opposite transpire is if Mahomes lays an egg or Jones plays lights out, both of which I don’t believe will happen.

FINAL SCORE: KC 34-20 

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (6-4) vs. CHICAGO BEARS (7-3)

The Steelers had not won in Soldier Field since 1995, but now they have Aaron Rodgers, who has a strong reputation of beating the Bears throughout his career. However, his status for Sunday’s game is very much in question after suffering a slight fracture in his non-throwing wrist, so that streak could possibly continue if Mason Rudolph is the starting quarterback. 

Regardless of who will be starting for Pittsburgh, their offense needs to have a huge game against a scrappy and opportunistic Bears defense. One way to do that is to run the football. The Steelers total the fourth fewest rushing yards in the league, yet they have a promising back in Jaylen Warren. Stopping the run is not exactly Chicago’s biggest strength so if Rodgers is not healthy, then you know offensive coordinator Arthur Smith is going to dial up as many plays as he can for Warren to have a strong performance. Obviously, you want to see the quarterback have a good afternoon as well, but all he has to do is not screw up and I think the defense can take care of the rest.

My biggest problem with the Bears this year, despite the 7-3 record, is the fact that their offense is incredibly inconsistent. Any time the defense forces multiple takeaways, little points are scored off of those mistakes and it takes until the fourth quarter for Chicago to realize they have a game to win. All I want to see is this team play a full 60 minutes of football, rather than just show up in spurts. The Bears offense is well-talented to keep this Steelers defense on its heels, but the only way to do that is to start fast and not take their foot off the gas.

FINAL LOCK: I definitely believe it would be fitting to see Aaron Rodgers get one last victory against the Bears before his career rides off into the sunset. Even then, I still have my doubts and reservations about Chicago. If they can barely beat teams with losing records, then who knows if they can hang on against teams that have a legitimate shot of making the playoffs this year?

FINAL SCORE: PIT 21-17

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (9-2) vs. CINCINNATI BENGALS (3-7)

It feels like just yesterday when the Patriots upset the Bengals in the first game of the 2024 season. Little did anybody know that New England would end up being one of the worst teams in the league while Cincinnati was barely eliminated from playoff contention. Now the roles have been somewhat reversed but unfortunately, I don’t know if the outcome will be different. 

Right now, the Bengals are dealing with a few key absences. Obviously, Joe Burrow has been out for the last two months with a toe injury, but two more notable additions made the list. They won’t have Trey Hendrickson again with a bad hip and Ja’Marr Chase just got suspended one game for spitting at Jalen Ramsey in an altercation. It’s bad enough that the worst defense in the NFL is still going to be without their best player, but now their offense will not have its most dynamic receiver on the field. I hate to say it but if you thought the game against the Steelers was bad, then just wait when they have to go up against one of the best defenses in the league. The Patriots give up the fewest rushing yards and they’re fifth in scoring. So many guys will have to step up for Cincinnati because if the offense cannot muster up enough energy, then the question is not if the defense will get shredded, but when it will start.

FINAL LOCK: I believe this is going to be another outstanding performance from Drake Maye against one of the worst defenses we have seen in the last decade. I think the Bengals offense can have a few legitimate scoring drives, even without Ja’Marr Chase, but I just don’t see them having a spectacular afternoon against one of the best coached teams in the league right now.

FINAL SCORE: NE 38-24

NEW YORK JETS (2-8) vs. BALTIMORE RAVENS (5-5)

Oh so now the Jets decide to bench Justin Fields for Tyrod Taylor. Well, it’s a little too late to save your team from the brink of disaster, especially now that they have to stay on the road to play Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens, who are on a four game winning streak right now.

There really isn’t too much to say about this game. Taylor makes the Jets offense slightly better because he can actually throw the football decently, but with Garrett Wilson on IR, there aren’t too many receivers that can consistently get open. Unless Breece Hall decides to rush for 200 yards, the most points this group is going to score is 20 if they’re lucky! Baltimore has steadily improved after a drastic 1-5 start and just like last year, they plan to run the table and win the AFC North for a third consecutive season. Their offense is still dynamic, the defense doesn’t look like a dumpster fire and they’re playing more connected than they did through the first few weeks. It’s going to take a miracle for New York to win this game and I just don’t know if there is one in sight.

FINAL LOCK: Unfortunately, this is the definition of a mismatch. The Ravens are the vastly superior football team while the Jets continue to be a laughing stock. I could say the score would be a little closer if this was at MetLife, but knowing this is in Baltimore, I just don’t see New York pulling off the upset unless every single thing goes right for them.

FINAL SCORE: BAL 34-10

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (7-3) vs. TENNESSEE TITANS (1-9)

If there is any week for the Seahawks to bounce back after last week’s loss to the Rams, it is this one as they now get to play the worst team in the league: the Tennessee Titans. Let’s just hope Sam Darnold doesn’t throw the game away like he did last week.

Needless to say, this quarterback needs to have a way better performance on Sunday afternoon. He threw four interceptions against the Rams the week before, further proving that you cannot count on him in the most important games. The only thing that would be worse is if he had a similar performance in Nashville. Seattle’s defense was the least of their worries from that loss and there is no question they are going to take out all of their frustration on the worst team in the National Football League. It took Houston a walkoff field goal to beat the Titans last Sunday, so if the Seahawks want to avoid a similar script, they are going to need a complete performance for 60 straight minutes. Just don’t do what the Cardinals did and you’ll be fine.

FINAL LOCK: I believe Seattle will bounce back strongly with a convincing victory. It’s not going to make up for what happened last week, but I don’t see them going on a major skid because of this.

FINAL SCORE: SEA 37-10

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (4-6) vs. GREEN BAY PACKERS (6-3-1)

If this game was taking place in week three, I’d say the Packers would win this game by 20 points. Now I have a feeling we are going to get another close fight between two scrappy division rivals. To me, it’s not about which quarterback will show up in the clutch, but who is going to screw up at the worst possible moment.

Green Bay’s defense hasn’t been the biggest issue for them this year. Outside of that tie against the Cowboys, they have been a generally strong unit. It’s their offense. I’m not going to use the Josh Jacobs, Elgton Jenkins and Tucker Kraft injuries as excuses to why they have been inconsistent. When you have Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur, two guys that are supposed to be near the top of their respective professions, there is no excuse for this unit to look average at best. They’re too likable and too promising to just be a seventh seed and only last at least two rounds in the playoffs. They don’t need to have a perfect performance against this Vikings defense, but just look respectable and that could be good enough.

From Minnesota’s perspective, the biggest weak link over the last couple of weeks has been the quarterback. JJ McCarthy might be a guy you want to root for, but he has six touchdown passes and eight interceptions. He’ll show flashes of brilliance here and there, but more moments where you leave yourself scratching your head. Just like the Packers, the Vikings have too much talent to just be a subpar football team, especially with Kevin O’Connell as the head coach. This is as much of a needed victory for Minnesota as it is for Green Bay, so the strategy is not the issue: it is about who wants it more.

FINAL LOCK: This game can really go either way because both teams are going to be extremely motivated to try to win. However, in this particular instance, I have to roll with the quarterback I trust the most in the fourth quarter and that is Jordan Love. 

FINAL SCORE: GB 26-23 

NEW YORK GIANTS (2-9) vs. DETROIT LIONS (6-4)

After speculation about Jaxson Dart possibly returning from concussion protocol, Giants head coach Mike Kafka recently announced that Jameis Winston will be making his second start of the season. Either way, I believe New York can make it close but will they have enough against a Lions team hoping to bounce back from another embarrassing defeat?

When Detroit lost to the Vikings at home just a few weeks ago, they scored on almost every single possession against the Commanders the following Sunday. Now that they only scored nine points in Philadelphia, who knows how they will respond at Ford Field? The Giants have unfortunately lost five straight games and it looks like the streak will extend to six. As I say almost every week, the Lions have the pieces to make a legitimate Super Bowl run. However, they always get in their own way and that is what causes them to come up short. 

From Detroit’s perspective, as long as they don’t get too ahead of themselves, they should win easily. However, New York kept it close with Green Bay the week before and it took a few offensive miscues for the game to be decided, so they know that all they have to do is not screw up for them to pull off the upset. 

FINAL LOCK: As much as I hate seeing the Giants constantly underachieve, I don’t think we’re going to get a close game here. The Lions usually know how to bounce back after self-inflicted defeats and I believe they’ll remind us why we had them as a Super Bowl contender at the start of the year.

FINAL SCORE: DET 34-13

THE 4:05/4:25 WINDOW:

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (6-4) vs. ARIZONA CARDINALS (3-7)

Both teams are heading in different directions right now. The Jaguars just came off one of their most impressive victories of the season while the Cardinals are once again tire-spinning into irrelevance. On the surface, this should be an easy win for Jacksonville, but this is also the same team that had to beat the Raiders in overtime not too long ago. We’re going to get a close game but let’s see which quarterback will be able to close the deal.

After the Jaguars obliterated the Chargers on Sunday, all I kept asking myself is where the hell this had been earlier? After their Monday night victory over the Chiefs, they lost three out of their next four games and it looked like they were going to stumble into another mediocre season. Now that they got out of their slump, Jacksonville still has a shot of making the playoffs. This Sunday, they are going up against the eighth worst scoring defense in the National Football League. I understand they held the Dallas offense to just seven points on Monday Night Football a few weeks back, only for them to allow 40+ points in back-to-back weeks to division rivals. Jacksonville simply needs to pick up where they left off. Trevor Lawrence doesn’t need to be a hero, but he has to play well enough for them to build a comfortable lead down the stretch. If not, then who knows what Jacoby Brissett could do?

Although the Cardinals got blown out by the 49ers, one statistic that was left in the fold was that Jacoby Brissett completed 47 passes on 57 attempts. I personally don’t take too much stock into it, especially since the game was a blowout, but it’s a sign that this offense isn’t horrible with him under center. Normally I would say the Jaguars defense isn’t a huge challenge to go up against, but we just saw them shut down Justin Herbert last week, so this is going to be a big day for Brissett as well. Not too long ago, Arizona’s fourth quarter struggles cost them winnable games against the Colts and Packers. In the last two weeks, they got off to the worst starts possible and never recovered. For the Cardinals to win this week, they have to play more consistently and they must take advantage of their opportunities.

FINAL LOCK: This game can really go either way and I personally believe we will have a grudge match down to the wire. However, knowing that the Cardinals are still going to be without Marvin Harrison Jr., I don’t trust their inconsistent running game to step up against the second best defense in that particular category. Both quarterbacks should have decent performances, but I feel like Brissett is going to have a bigger workload and I don’t know if it’s sustainable for this particular game.

FINAL SCORE: JAX 27-23

CLEVELAND BROWNS (2-8) vs. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (2-8)

I don’t think it’s up for debate: this is going to be the ugliest game of the week. The Browns have a legitimate defense but a visionless offense while the Raiders have a few quality stars, yet nothing else besides chronic underachievers. Whoever still has pride left in either of these teams should not have to pay their bills for the next two months.

Shadeur Sanders will be making his first NFL start on Sunday afternoon and at this point, I’m just going with a “wait and see" approach. He looked rough in the second half against the Ravens, completing just four out of sixteen passes with no touchdowns and an interception. Now that he will have a full week to prepare, he must accomplish two things: get rid of the football quickly and take what the defense is giving him. Throughout his college career, he took a lot of hits and sacks. He tried going for the big plays instead of just scanning the field properly. In the NFL, you cannot get away with trying to play hero ball. The Raiders defense might not be great, but they have two experienced coaches in Pete Carroll and Patrick Graham that can create ways to neutralize Sanders’ strengths.

On paper, the Raiders should win this game, especially with how horrific their offense looked on Monday Night Football. Against one of the worst defenses in the NFL, they didn’t score a touchdown until a garbage time drive in the fourth quarter. Ashton Jeanty totaled just seven yards on six carries, while Geno Smith threw his 13th interception of the season. Vegas cannot afford to have another pitiful performance, especially against one of the best defenses in the league featuring the potential 2025 Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett. Smith doesn’t even have to play perfect but as long as he holds onto the football, they can score only 16 points and it could be enough.

FINAL LOCK: I want to pick the Raiders to win, but I really love Cleveland’s defense. I wouldn’t be shocked if Vegas found a way to get things done at home, but I’ll give Sanders the benefit of the doubt and say he won’t be completely horrible on the road. Either way, this is not going to be a fun afternoon for either side.

FINAL SCORE: CLE 13-10

ATLANTA FALCONS (3-7) vs. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (2-8)

It’s one thing for the Saints to be one of the worst teams in the league; we already knew they would be entering the season. The fact that the Falcons only have three wins, however, is absolutely startling. With all the talent they have on their offense and the improvements they made on defense, their record is unacceptable and now they will be playing their first game without Michael Penix due to a partially torn ACL.

This means Kirk Cousins will be making his second start of the 2025 season. Unfortunately, the optics aren’t looking great. In his first game against Miami, the Falcons offense got absolutely shut down by the Miami Dolphins 34-10. Two weeks ago, New Orleans held the Carolina Panthers to just seven points, who ironically had one of their best games of the season at Atlanta just last Sunday. What’s worse is that Cousins might not have his top target Drake London due to a knee injury, so if Atlanta cannot run the football, then there aren’t too many receivers that will get open besides Darnell Mooney or Kyle Pitts. The Saints might be a flawed defense, yet they have enough pieces that can pull off a spoiler or two late in the season. Let’s just see if they’re up for the challenge.

Now we get to Tyler Shough. It’s been a while since we saw him throw for over 280 yards with a couple touchdown passes against the Panthers on the road, but the Falcons defense presents a bigger challenge. For starters, they are second in the NFL in sacks after totaling 18 in their last three games! Even in the midst of a five game losing streak, Atlanta is still allowing the sixth fewest passing yards in the league, which means this Saints offense is not expected to look fantastic either. For them to prove some doubters wrong, they have to get the running game going and build on their attack from there because if not, then Cousins might have some magic left in his sleeves.

FINAL LOCK: I’m going to be honest, I see the Saints pulling off an upset here. I remember when they ended their seven game losing streak against the Falcons in the Superdome last year and I believe we are going to get a similar script this time. I don’t expect New Orleans’ offense to be perfect, but I do believe their defense will lead the way from start to finish.

FINAL SCORE: NO 20-13

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (8-2) vs. DALLAS COWBOYS (4-5-1)

Now we get to the game that I’m sure nobody on ESPN has shut up about all week long. For the second time this year, the Eagles and Cowboys will go head-to-head in an epic division rivalry fight. Now that both teams will meet in AT&T Stadium, Dallas is hoping to get the win that they felt slipped out of their hands on opening night. Literally.

This was a very hard game to predict and one reason why is because the Cowboys have one of the best offenses in the NFL while the Eagles have one of the best defenses. Obviously, it is the toughest test Dak Prescott has faced at home this season and win or lose, he is going to be the biggest star under the spotlight. For him to succeed, he needs as much time in the pocket as possible. Philadelphia’s pass rush has not been their biggest strength this year, even with the acquisition of Jaelan Phillips, while Dallas’ offensive line has only allowed 16 sacks. It will be interesting to see how both sides match up against each other this second go-around and if Prescott plays exceptional, then he is going to rise his way near the top of the MVP ladder; something I want to see happen.

When I look at Philadelphia’s offense versus Dallas’ defense, I don’t know what to expect either. When you look at both teams on paper, this should be an easy mismatch, yet it isn’t. I understand having four consecutive offensive coordinators can be tough for not just the quarterback, but everybody else involved in the offense, but I’m at the point where you can’t be excited every odd year. In their two games since the bye week, Philly has only scored 26 points, yet their defense has bailed them out both times. Now they are going up against one of the worst statistical defenses in the league this year, but looked pretty solid Monday night with Quinnen Williams making his debut and several starters returning to the lineup. Eventually, one team is going to stand out the most and the other will incredibly disappoint. We just don’t know who it will be yet.

FINAL LOCK: In this rivalry matchup, the margin of error for either side is incredibly small. Jalen Carter, please don’t spit on anybody this time. CeeDee Lamb, make sure you catch the football. With that being said, I have the Cowboys pulling off the upset. Dak Prescott has only lost to the Eagles at home once, which was back in 2017, meaning he is undefeated against Jalen Hurts at AT&T Stadium. Both teams are at even strength and while Philadelphia has more talent, I think Dallas is going to want this victory more for their playoff hopes to stay alive.

FINAL SCORE: DAL 24-20