LET'S TALK FOOTBALL - Buffalo Bills

Last year, the Buffalo Bills had one of the best seasons in franchise history. They won thirteen games and clinched the second seed, Josh Allen won his first MVP, James Cook totaled eighteen touchdowns, yet it still was not enough to beat the boogeyman in the Kansas City Chiefs. If it were not for Patrick Mahomes, the Bills would already have a Super Bowl championship by now. Entering 2025, the status quo is very simple. Buffalo will be the favorites to win the AFC East, they are expected to have one of the best records in the entire conference, but their success will be all for naught if they cannot beat the Chiefs in the playoffs.

After winning the first of many MVPS, Josh Allen immediately signed an extension that would make him one of the highest paid quarterbacks in NFL history. Obviously, he is more than deserving of that, but James Cook is hoping for his own extension next. The good news is that he fully participated in the mandatory minicamp, but the question is what his activity will be like during training camp? Will he hold out, will he just show up and not practice, or will he bet on himself and prove that he is worth a long-term deal? The Bills do have a promising young back in Ray Davis, so regardless of what happens with Cook, the team at least has a quality backfield to utilize. As for the passing game, it is honestly a miracle that Allen won the MVP, considering that his receiving group was mediocre at best. Nobody totaled a thousand yards and there was only one person that had five touchdown receptions, which was the recently departed Mack Hollins. This season, it is time for that room to step up big. Keon Coleman needs to prove that he can be a valuable number one, Khalil Shakir needs to live up to the extension that he just received and work his magic in the slot, while Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox need to maximize their potential as a tight end duo. The Bills signed Josh Palmer in free agency as a number three and signed Elijah Moore as a depth piece, so it will be interesting to see how this offense will look. Fortunately, Josh Allen was not a turnover machine the way he was in 2023, which means that the success will depend on how well he can handle the ball. It also helps that they have the best offensive line in the league that allowed the fewest sacks, which is why Dion Dawkins signed an extension to continue protecting the blind side.

The defense is where it gets particularly interesting. I have always respected Sean McDermott as a head coach and I personally think he is a genius on that side of the ball. However, they have been underwhelming over the last two seasons and a lot of that has to do with health. Their two stud linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard were sidelined, Von Miller was released because he could not fully recover from a torn ACL, and a big reason why they lost the AFC Championship was because their top cornerback Christian Benford got hurt. Even with the injuries, they did their best to be a “bend but do not break” unit. It gave up plenty of yards, but finished eleventh in points and third in takeaways. This season, this unit is expected to turn things around. Their defensive line already has a couple of stallworths in Ed Oliver and Greg Rousseau, but Buffalo only totaled thirty-nine sacks. I think Michael Hoecht can be a valuable depth option, yet the only way I can see Joey Bosa become a true game changer is if he stays healthy, which he has not been able to do over the last few seasons. The same goes for their most recent signing Shaq Thompson, who will more than likely be a depth option in the linebacker room, after only playing six games in the last two seasons. My guess is that Buffalo is banking on AJ Epenesa and Javon Solomon to take big leaps because without the younger guys stepping up, then this defense is going to be on its heels quickly. As for the secondary, they were the biggest weak link in my opinion. It allowed the ninth most passing yards and passing touchdowns in football, while also giving up the fifth highest completion percentage. That is why Buffalo drafted cornerback Maxwell Hairston in the first round, somebody that can complement a number one in Benford and slot guy Taron Johnson. There are also guys like Brandon Codrington and Cam Lewis hoping to make the most out of their minutes. The team even brought back Dane Jackson and Tre’Davious White to re-familiarize themselves with the system. The safety room is the most competitive because while Taylor Rapp will more than likely be starting on the strong side, the free side position is either going to be handed to Cole Bishop or Damar Hamlin.

If the Bills have another strong regular season, nobody is going to care. When it comes to this team, we know what the ultimate goal is: beat the Chiefs and win the Super Bowl. Josh Allen is too talented of a quarterback to have another heartbreaking defeat in the playoffs, and if that is the case, then we need to start questioning Sean McDermott’s job security. You cannot expect to suffer the same fate and think nothing is going to change. They can add or subtract as many pieces to the roster, but it will not matter if Kansas City keeps haunting them every single season.

WEEK 1 vs. BALTIMORE RAVENS

It is amazing that the first Sunday night matchup of the year is a rematch of an outstanding finish in the Divisional Round between two teams that will be the biggest threats to Kansas City winning the AFC for a fourth straight season. There is not more that needs to be said about Baltimore, but I will anyway. If it were not Allen taking a mediocre team to the conference championship, then there is no question that Lamar Jackson would have won his third MVP. Besides him, the rest of the team has a boatload of talent that should be a championship contender. Derrick Henry proved that not only is he still the King, but he is easily one of the top two running backs in all of football. What I’ve been more impressed with is how well the Ravens opened up the passing game. Zay Flowers has slowly but surely emerged as a number one option and Rashod Bateman has not done too bad as a number two. But now that DeAndre Hopkins has been added to the mix, Lamar will have more than just Mark Andrews or Isaiah Likely to lean on as a security blanket. The biggest win of their offseason, in my opinion, was bringing back Ronnie Stanley. He turned more money down to stay with Baltimore, so as long as he stays healthy, he will be a huge investment that will pay off. The interior still gives me some concern, but with Lamar under center, it should not be too huge of a liability.

Hopefully this time, the defense will stay consistent all season long, rather than just wait until the second half of the season to show up. The pass rush has really come alive in the last two years, led by Nnamdi Madubuike and Kyle Van Noy, but players like Odafe Oweh and Tavius Robinson have really stepped into the fold in a positive way. The Ravens also drafted Mike Green in the second round, who led the FBS in sacks last year, so it will be interesting to see what type of role he can carve out in Zach Orr’s system. In the second level, there is nothing else to say about Roquan Smith besides the fact that he is the best middle linebacker in the league. Trenton Simpson really stepped up as the right-hand man and those two are why Baltimore allowed the fewest rushing yards in the league. What really stepped up in the second half of the season, though, was their secondary. Marlon Humphrey still proved that he was one of the best cover corners in the league, but with Kyle Hamilton as the deep safety, they exploded and took off. If Jaire Alexander can stay healthy, then this group will be even more lethal, especially since Ar’Darius Washington and Nate Wiggins are expected to have bigger roles. To top it off, I think that the safety room will be better with Malaki Starks jumping on as a first round pick.

We all are hoping that this is a game that comes down to the wire once again, but knowing that the Bills are at home, I think they can survive this one again. This is the matchup where both quarterbacks are expected to thrive and shine, so if Allen can outduel Lamar once again, then that will be more than enough to start the season with a victory.

WEEK 2 @ NEW YORK JETS

On the surface, I am sure that the Bills Mafia is saying that this is going to be an easy victory, but I do not see this as a cakewalk like a lot of other people probably would. With Aaron Glenn at head coach and Darren Mougey as the new general manager, New York is hoping that this tandem will finally be the one that will get this franchise back on the map. It might not be immediate, but if things continue to improve, then there is no doubt that the future is bright for this football team. The biggest X factor is their quarterback Justin Fields. It is nice to see the Jets not reach for a veteran or desperately draft somebody in the first round because a minimum deal for a fringe starter is not a bad option. We know what we are getting from Fields week to week: he will not completely embarrass himself, he will show you tremendous flashes with his legs and his arm, but he will not be a guy that will take you to a Super Bowl. Maybe new offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand will unlock something that Fields’ previous coaches could not, but the biggest knock on the quarterback’s career is that he has never been able to maximize his potential. Fortunately, there are more than a few promising pieces around him that could scratch the surface. Breece Hall and Braelon Allen are a legitimate running back tandem that bring acceleration and power, Garrett Wilson is poised for a breakout year with a former Buckeye throwing him the ball, but the big question is figuring out who will step next in line. It could be Allen Lazard, it might be Malachi Corley. Heck, maybe rookies Arian Smith and Mason Taylor could leapfrog their way onto the depth chart. Their offensive line had an okay season last year, but maybe with Fields under center, they can improve their production. The Jets used their first round pick in the draft to select the best right tackle prospect Armond Membou to complement Olu Fashanu. They are banking on Joe Tippmann to solidify himself as the starting center, with John Simpson and Alijah Vera-Tucker to his left and right.

With Glenn taking over as the head coach, the hope is that the defense can have a better season than the up-and-down roller coaster they were on last season. That is what happens when Robert Saleh gets scapegoated in the middle of the season. Fortunately for Glenn, he has a hell of a group to work with. On the defensive line, Quinnen Williams has still proven to be one of the best defensive tackles in the league and they have an absolute stud in edge rusher Will McDonald that is coming off of a breakout season. With Jermaine Johnson coming back from a season ending injury, the hope is that this defensive line can regain the grit and tenacity that they lacked in the second half of the season. Their run defense was the team’s biggest weakness over the last few seasons, but Glenn is hoping to fix that with Jamien Sherwood and Quincy Williams. However, the group that was really disappointing last season was their secondary. Sauce Gardner is coming off an up-and-down year, Michael Carter II had injuries hold him back, and the team just lost DJ Reed and Ashtyn Davis in free agency. I do not like the signing of Brandon Stephens since he was considered the weak link in Baltimore, so it looks like some of their younger prospects will have to step up quickly. At least their safety group looks solidified with rookie Malachi Moore and rising stud Tony Adams. If Andre Cisco can bounce back from last year, it will be even better.

Because the Jets are once again led by a new regime, this team will play scrappy and keep things competitive, but the Bills should prove that they are by far the superior team. For New York to win, it requires perfection, and Buffalo is not going to let a game like that happen under their watch.

WEEK 3 vs. MIAMI DOLPHINS

This is probably the easiest win I could give the Bills this season and that is saying a lot considering that there are some weak opponents on their schedule. I will tell you why. The Dolphins should be a championship contender on paper, but their self-inflicted failures over the past few years make them look nothing more than a mediocre pretender. Tua Tagovailoa has proven to be a solid NFL quarterback, but his health has always been the biggest X factor for this football team, and the team plummets when he is not on the field. It should not be the case because this offense has a boatload of speed and talent. De’Von Achane has emerged as the starting running back and Jaylen Wright is hoping to break out in his sophomore season. The top two receiving options are Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, they just signed Nick Westbrook-Ikhine to give this offense more verticality, and Jonnu Smith surprised a lot of people with a productive 2024 season. The only real liability that this group has is their offensive line. Terron Armstead retired, the interior is a mess, and Austin Jackson is the only consistent veteran they have. Hopefully, their second round pick Jonah Savaiinaea turns into a solid player, but center Aaron Brewer and left tackle Larry Borom should not be full time starters at the most important positions on the front five.

The Dolphins better hope that they do not suffer any injuries with their offense, or else that defense is going to get eaten alive, especially since Jalen Ramsey might be traded before the season begins. It is a unit that has a likable coordinator in Anthony Weaver Jr. and promising young pieces like Chop Robinson, Tyrel Dodson, and rookie Kenneth Grant. Yet, I don’t see any depth whatsoever. Jevon Holland left in free agency, Kendall Fuller and Nik Needham were released, Jordan Poyer was not brought back, and Calais Campbell left to go back to Arizona for what might be his last season. Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips cannot stay healthy, Zach Sieler is nearing thirty years old at an extremely physical position, and Miami has nobody else in their secondary that has been a proven shutdown defender. Kader Kohou is probably the closest one, but he is mainly a nickel corner, so there is nobody on the outside I can think of that can step up in a big way.

Josh Allen has posted some of his best numbers against the Dolphins and he has not lost to this division rival at home in his entire career. I do not expect that streak to end any time soon, especially on a prime time stage.

WEEK 4 vs. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Okay I was wrong. This is the easiest win the Bills could have asked for this year. I feel bad that this is the first head coaching job for Kellen Moore because on a team with no cap flexibility, an aging roster, and no plan at quarterback, this is the worst situation he could have asked for. Everything was put on halt when Derek Carr retired, so now there are three guys competing for the starting job: Spencer Rattler, Jake Haener, and rookie Tyler Shough. I wish I could say that at least there are the Pelicans, but that team is on the verge of blowing it up. The only silver lining I have is that at least the Saints offense will be healthy. Alvin Kamara had a bounce back season with close to 1500 total yards from scrimmage and eight touchdowns. Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed will more than likely be the two biggest targets for whichever quarterback throws them the ball, along with tight ends Juwan Johnson and Taysom Hill. Brandin Cooks is even coming back, so there is some nostalgia there. The offensive line is not completely horrible either and it got better with Kelvin Banks Jr. replacing Ryan Ramczyck at right tackle. The only issue is that once everybody got hurt, the entire offense plummeted, and it is one of the biggest reasons why the Saints had a dismal five win season.

As for the defense, how do I put this? They have zero depth and they are incredibly old. When you do look at the younger guys in this group, they are either inconsistent or inexperienced. They already lost their top two corners in Marshon Lattimore and Paulson Adebo, their only two good pass rushers are Bryan Bresee and Carl Granderson, we don’t know what to expect from Chase Young, and Demario Davis can only do so much at thirty-six years old. At least they signed Justin Reid to reunite with his former Texans teammate Tyrann Mathieu, but with Brandon Staley as the defensive coordinator, my hopes are not that high for this group.

The Bills are at home, they are playing a team in dire straits, and they have higher aspirations. That should explain enough. However, the Bills have not won a home game against the Saints since 1983, so there is a thought in the back of my mind that we could get a stunning upset. However, the thing that is holding me back is just the starting quarterback for New Orleans because I do not have faith in either one of them to outduel Josh Allen.

WEEK 5 vs. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

The three game homestand will end with a Sunday night matchup against the New England Patriots, who is legitimately the biggest threat to Buffalo’s hopes of winning the division now that Mike Vrabel is the new head coach. The Jerod Mayo experiment failed, so a more proven and successful man will do his best to develop Drake Maye into the stud that he is supposed to transform into, and the cast around him is ten times better than whatever the heck he had last year. Rhamondre Stevenson had a rough season with fumble issues, which is why New England drafted Trayveon Henderson in the second round, but he is still a flexible back that can fight for yards after contact and bruise defenders with his physicality. They signed Stefon Diggs to be their new number one option, but I have been skeptical about the wide receiver room for the last five years now. It’s not only about the supporting role players, but the fact that Diggs is coming off a torn ACL and is not getting any younger. Fortunately, Hunter Henry is still around and has always been a reliable security blanket, but my biggest area of focus is the offensive line. New England did everything they could to overhaul that unit and managed to do that within a few months. They drafted left Will Campbell with the fourth overall pick, replaced the recently retired David Andrews with Garrett Bradbury, and signed Morgan Moses in free agency to be their right tackle. The only returning starters will be Cole Strange and Michael Onwenu, so their biggest priority is making sure Drake Maye does not get crushed on a weekly basis, or else this season is going to be a disaster.

Just like Bill Belichick did in 2021, Mike Vrabel retooled this defense into a respected juggernaut. They gave Milton Williams a huge contract to be their spearhead on the defensive line, brought in Harold Landry to fly off the edge, added Robert Spillane to be the new starting middle linebacker, and even signed Carlton Davis to complement a rising superstar in Christian Gonzalez. New England had to let go of a few remaining veterans to make these signings possible, but there is no doubt they will have one of the best defenses in football at the end. These signings are going to take the pressure off of guys like Keion White, Christian Barmore, Anfernee Jennings, Jahlani Tavai, and Kyle Dugger to do their best to keep a faded empire alive the year before.

I believe that the home field advantage and the fact that this game is nationally televised should give the Bills the edge of winning. However, do not be surprised if this becomes a game that comes down to the wire, because the Patriots are going to do their best to shake off the last two years and show that they have what it takes to storm back into the playoffs.

WEEK 6 @ ATLANTA FALCONS

Playing back-to-back prime games is always difficult for any NFL team, but this is one where I think the Bills should have a strong chance of winning. It is nothing against the Falcons because they are supposed to have a decent season, but you never know what to expect from them. Now that Michael Penix has the full keys to the offense, one of two things is going to happen. Either he surges like Lamar Jackson did in his sophomore year and carries the team to relevance, or the flaws keep rearing their ugly heads as they walk into another mediocre season. As I said, this is a team that has plenty of talent to get over the hump. Bijan Robinson is easily one of the top five running backs in all of football and Drake London broke through in his third year with over 1200 receiving yards. However, for this offense to truly rise up the charts, they need Kyle Pitts to get back on the map. After his rookie season, he was expected to be a huge focal point of the offense. Then all of a sudden, his play diminished and he has been in a lot of trade rumors. At some point in time, the quarterback cannot be the scapegoat for this anymore, so it will be really interesting to see how Pitts performs in 2025. Let’s not forget that Darnell Mooney fell eight yards short of a thousand last season and Ray-Ray McCloud set career highs in targets, catches, and yards! I don’t have a lot of concerns for the offensive line, even with the loss of Chris Dalman, because it is a group with proven starters. The Falcons only gave up thirty-two sacks the year before and was considered one of the best run blocking lines in football, so it really comes down to the receivers getting open and Penix being smart with his decision making.

As for the defense, it was really the most disappointing in the league. There is a reason why they did not decide to bring Matthew Judon or Justin Simmons back after signing them to prove-it deals for one year. They also knew that they could not keep Grady Jarrett around much longer because after the extension he received in 2019, he never totaled more than six sacks in a season. The good news was that Atlanta had two first round picks and decided to boost the edge with those selections. They finally made a smart decision and took Jalon Walker with their first pick, but then stunned all of us by trading a future first for James Pearce Jr. That means that head coach Raheem Morris sees them as immediate impactful players to complement Arnold Ebiketie. The rest of their defensive line has proven veterans like Leonard Floyd and David Onyemata, but they are also not getting any younger, so a lot more weight is going to be given to the young guys. They finished with the second fewest sacks in the NFL, so even though that number will get higher this season, I do not see a drastic improvement. I never had an issue with the linebacking room. Kaden Elliss is an extremely versatile linebacker and I have hopes for JD Bertrand, so I think the signing of Divine Deablo can help this group instead of hurt them. But the one position group that I have never been fond of is the secondary. AJ Terrell and Jessie Bates might be All-Pro caliber players, but who do they have to help out? I like Dee Alford, but he had an up-and-down season as he struggled with coverage. Jordan Fuller is a guy that I liked when he was on the Rams, but he tailed off in Carolina and got cut after one year for a reason. Mike Hughes did not do too bad and Atlanta brought him back on a new contract, yet I am worried that last year might have been a blimp in the radar.

Sean McDermott has not lost to the Falcons in his coaching career yet, but I do not see this as an easy win for the Bills. I think we could get a very close and competitive first half, but my guess is that Buffalo will pull away in the second half due to a momentum-shifting play.

WEEK 7: BYE WEEK

WEEK 8 @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

This is a trap game for the Buffalo Bills, even if it looks like an easy win at first glance. After seeing his career nearly get destroyed to begin the 2024 season, Panthers quarterback Bryce Young completely rebounded down the stretch and is now a sign of optimism rather than the biggest liability. Head coach Dave Canales and general manager Dan Morgan are hoping that he and the rest of this offense can pick up where they left off, because they showed more positive flashes than they did in the last five years. Chuba Hubbard emerged as one of the best running backs in the league and he will have a nice right hand man in Rico Dowdle to step in when needed. Adam Thielen is not getting any younger, but that is a reason why Carolina used their first round pick to draft Tet McMillian, who will join a receiving corps featuring Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker. They also have a rising tight end in Ja’Tavion Sanders that will be seeking more opportunities, along with an offensive line that only let up thirty-six sacks. I do not think they will be a top ten unit right away, but if Carolina continues to head into the right direction, then they can absolutely be one of the more efficient offenses in the league.

However, I think the true X factor of this team is their defense, which was a disaster last year. It ranked dead last in total yards, passing, and points. They had the fourth fewest sacks and totaled nine interceptions, with a lot of it attributed to guys like Derrick Brown and Shaq Thompson missing the entire season. Brown will be returning, along with highly touted cornerback Jaycee Horn, but I do not think that this unit got drastically better. I like Tershawn Wharton, Christian Rozeboom, Tre’von Moehrig, and Pat Jones II. I think those are highly respected players that will be beneficial to this group. Yet, are those three really going to move the needle? Their leading tackle Xavier Woods is gone, Josey Jewell was okay, and neither Jadeveon Clowney nor DJ Wonnum made a difference on the defensive line. We knew that defensive coordinator Ejero Evero was going to have his hands full, but I seriously cannot tell if this group will overachieve or not. As much as I want them to, this team does not have the right personnel to do that at the moment, unless their offense turns back the clock a decade and starts ripping everyone’s hearts out.

As much as I want to see an upset, I think that Josh Allen alone gives the Bills the edge of winning. The Panthers defense is still a troubling unit and it is hard to guarantee that their offense will pick up where they left off last year, so until I see that, then I will say that Buffalo stays locked in and even-keeled. However, if Carolina truly emerges as a surprising playoff contender, then this might be a long day for the Mafia.

WEEK 9 vs. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

At this point, I do not even get excited when these teams play each other in the regular season because I already know the script. Over the last few seasons, the Bills managed to throw the first punch, whether it was at Highmark Stadium or Arrowhead. Yet when they saw each other again in the playoffs, Kansas City flipped the script and reminded everybody that they were the team to beat in the AFC. As much as we want to laugh at the national media for saying that Patrick Mahomes is the GOAT if he wins a third straight Super Bowl, I can understand what started this discussion. The Kansas City Chiefs have been one of the most dominant dynasties in the league and their quarterback has been the biggest reason why. As long as they have him healthy, they are the class of the AFC. Fortunately for them, the core is still intact. Isaiah Pacheco is one of the angriest running backs in the league and does a better job of getting yards after contact than most other players at his position. They are even bringing Kareem Hunt back, who did a tremendous job in emergency duty when Pacheco got hurt. The passing game will still focus on Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy, but Kansas City made sure to keep around Hollywood Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster as reliable supporting options. There is also tight end Noah Gray, who is arguably the best backup player at his position, with the exception of Isaiah Likely. Yet, that was not the biggest issue with this offense. Surprisingly, it was the offensive line. To fix their drastic need at left tackle, not only did they sign Jaylon Moore in free agency, but drafted Josh Simmons with their first round pick. Joe Thuney unfortunately got traded to Chicago, but the good news was that Kansas City kept Trey Smith and Creed Humphrey. It appears that Mike Caliendo will be the starting left guard and he proved to be a serviceable placeholder, so let’s hope that it will not be a liability once again.

Over the past few seasons, Steve Spagnuolo has slowly but surely turned this defense into one of the best units in all of football. The biggest reason why is because of their front seven, which opens up the blitz and features several key playmakers. Chris Jones is still playing at an elite level, George Karlaftis deserves a huge payday for how tremendous he has been since he arrived, Mike Danna has developed into a bluechip edge rusher, and I cannot wait to see how Felix Anudike-Uzomah does in what should be a breakout year. Their linebacker room is stacked with Drue Tranquill and Nick Bolton plugging up the middle, with Leo Chenal and Jack Cochrane on time when you need the call. The secondary is stacked with younger talent like Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson, Jaden Hicks, Bryan Cook, and Chamarri Conner. With Kristian Fulton the newest addition, this is a group that can most definitely keep this team in Super Bowl contention.

It would not be surprising to see the Chiefs win because they do have Patrick Mahomes for crying out loud, but this is probably the most overrated regular season matchup of the season. Yes, this game is going to come down to the wire because two of the best quarterbacks are going head-to-head, but it will not mean anything if we get the same story for the fifth time.

WEEK 10 @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

Until the Dolphins can finally prove they can beat a legitimate team under adverse circumstances, then I am going to say that the Bills will sweep the series. It will not be a cakewalk because both teams are extremely talented, but Buffalo is mentally tougher, and that is the biggest advantage in these types of matchups.

WEEK 11 vs. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

The Bills are going to have to lose their first game of the season at some point and although this will be at home, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are not exactly the team you want to underestimate. It began with Tom Brady and Baker Mayfield has done more than his job to make them a respected foe. He might have his third different offensive coordinator in his three years with the team, but I think that as long as the pieces are still there and the system does not change, then it should not be too big of an issue. Bucky Irving emerged as one of the more promising rookie running backs in the league, so any time the passing game does get held in check, then he and Rachaad White can pick up the slack. Say it is the other way around, then you have Mike Evans to worry about, somebody that is essentially guaranteed to total a thousand yards in a season. Chris Godwin is coming back, Jalen McMillan showed tremendous promise as a rookie, and Tampa drafted Emeka Egbuka to round out the receiving room. Their offensive line is also a well-rounded unit that showed improvement towards the second half of the season, but based on Mayfield’s style of play, it is a unit that might give up more sacks than you would like.

My only real concern with the Buccaneers is their defense, which should not be the case with Todd Bowles as the head coach. If you ask me, it is an average unit with a few key stars, but not much else. They have a beast in Vita Vea anchoring the pass rush, Lavonte David still playing at a high level at middle linebacker, and one of the best safeties in the league in Antoine Winfield Jr. However, they allowed the fourth most passing yards out of any other team and their secondary only totaled seven interceptions. I understand that Tampa drafted two corners with their mid-round picks and signed Haason Reddick in free agency, but I don’t believe that those additions moved the needle with this group. Although they have guys they can show up in spurts, Tampa does not have a lot of players that are difference makers, and that is critical if they want to make a deep playoff run.

I personally feel like both teams match up incredibly well with another. They have top ten quarterbacks, solid offenses, and opportunistic defenses. I would not be shocked if the Bills found a way to win this since they are home, but I think the Buccaneers can throw a few wrinkles that could turn the tide of the game in their favor.

WEEK 12 @ HOUSTON TEXANS

It is hard to think that Josh Allen has yet to win a game in Houston, but on Thursday Night Football, I can see that streak coming to an end because he has yet to lose a game on that stage. Another reason is because the Texans are a complicated team to analyze. Last season was rough for a franchise that was finally starting to get things back on track. Despite winning the AFC South and making it back to the playoffs, it felt like they were worse than last year, and now it is time for everybody to prove that it was just a fluke. That means CJ Stroud is going to have to break through that rough sophomore wall and return to the promising stud he was in his rookie season. This season will be a bigger challenge because not only is Stefon Diggs gone, but Tank Dell is expected to miss all of 2025 with that gruesome knee injury he suffered in December. However, I think both Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel are going to surprise a lot of people in their rookie seasons, which will take a lot of pressure off of Nico Collins and even newly signed Christian Kirk. Along with Joe Mixon and Dalton Schultz, it is still a talented offense that just let go of offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, so it is time for Nick Caley to right the ship. Yet, their offensive line still gives me pause for concern. They traded away Laremy Tunsil, released Shaq Mason, and traded away Kenyon Green. The new guys that the Texans signed include Cam Robinson, Trent Brown, and Ed Ingram. The only returning pieces are Juice Scruggs and Tytus Howard. I don’t know how, but it felt like their offensive line got worse. That says a lot, considering that CJ Stroud was the second most sacked quarterback in the league!

As for the Texans defense, the one thing that held them back from their potential was the lack of discipline. That falls on DeMeco Ryans because this was supposed to be the unit for him to turn around. They have the talent, but they need the chemistry and mental toughness to really go far in the playoffs. Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter did a tremendous job on the front four, they have a legitimate linebacker duo of Azeez Al-Shaair and Henry To’oTo’o, but it is their secondary that I think makes this group even more dangerous. They have a transcendent number one corner in Derek Stingley Jr., a couple of rising studs in Calen Bullock and Kamari Lassiter, and Jalen Pitre is one of the more underrated safeties in all of football. They also just acquired CJ Gardner Johnson in a trade with Philadelphia, which means Jimmie Ward will not have to take a huge load of the work as one of the only veterans on the team.

If the Bills lose in heartbreaking fashion to the Bucs at home, then I have all the faith in the world that they can bounce back on the road, even with a quick turnaround. They are approaching that part of the season where they play their best football, so all Buffalo has to do is remained locked in and everything else will take care of itself.

WEEK 13 @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

This is not only the type of game that the Bills win on a yearly basis but one where the Steelers just do not have enough to pull off a surprising upset. However, they are hoping to throw that narrative in the trash now that Aaron Rodgers is the quarterback. The streak of winning seasons for Mike Tomlin will most likely stay alive, although many of their fans are hoping for the contrary so that management can see their flaws. Either way, it is not like the Steelers have a terrible team. Najee Harris is gone, but Jaylen Warren has always been a huge focal point of this offense, and I think rookie Kaleb Johnson could mold in well with Arthur Smith’s system. George Pickens got traded, yet DK Metcalf is always a receiver that any quarterback would love to have. Hopefully, he shows more consistency in his play because he is incredibly athletic and physical, but you do not see it as often as you would hope. Pat Freiermuth is always a serviceable security blanket, Calvin Austin shows plenty of flashes with his speed, and Roman Wilson is trying to bounce back after an injury-riddled rookie year. However, the offensive line brings up a lot of concerns as they allowed the ninth most sacks in the NFL. Dan Moore Jr. left in free agency, which will make Troy Fautanu and Broderick Jones the two startling tackles for the season, so let’s see if that is a move that will pay off over time.

Whether the Steelers make the playoffs or not, I seriously doubt that defense is going to regress. That is if TJ Watt clears up whatever issues he might have with the front office. Otherwise, they are screwed. As much as I love guys like Alex Highsmith and Cam Heyward, they will not have a pass rush without the former Defensive Player of the Year. We can only hope that rookie Derrick Harmon can have an instant impact on that line because that would be absolutely critical. The linebacking room is a deep one per usual, and I think it will get even stronger with Jack Sawyer as a late draft addition, but I hope they do not wear down like they did last year before. As for the secondary, it is also a well respected group that just got stronger. Darius Slay might not be the corner that he was in his prime but he can still play at a high level and complement a shutdown beast in Joey Porter Jr. The same goes with safety Juan Thornhill to help out Minkah Fitzpatrick. They will be the biggest reason why this Steelers team is competitive, but if their offense is near the bottom of the dumpster, then it is going to be an exhausted group as the season progresses.

I am expecting a scrappy matchup that could come down to the wire in the fourth quarter, but the Bills are supposed to have the better football team and I think that Josh Allen can deliver for this team in the clutch, even in a hostile environment like Pittsburgh. The only way I can see the script flipping is if Aaron Rodgers turns back the clock to his MVP days and puts the team on his back to glory.

WEEK 14 vs. CINCINNATI BENGALS

People bring up that Josh Allen has failed to beat Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs, but nobody pays attention to the fact that his record against Joe Burrow is worse. On the surface, the Bills Mafia is expecting and praying that the streak ends this year. But at the same time, as long as the Bengals offense is fully healthy, this team will be a playoff contender. Even though they missed the playoffs, Joe Burrow threw forty-three touchdowns to just nine interceptions and Ja’Marr Chase was the Triple Crown winner. How many teams can they say they have playmakers like those two? Not to mention that Tee Higgins signed a contract extension to make him the highest paid number two option in football, so Cincinnati’s “Big Three” will be in the Jungle for years to come. But let’s not dismiss some of their other playmakers. Chase Brown stood out with 1000 yards from scrimmage in his sophomore year and is poised for a breakout season, Mike Gesicki signed a small extension to remain the security blanket, and Andrei Iosivas is a stud on the rise as he continues to develop upwards. Hopefully, Jermaine Burton shakes off a dismal rookie season, because the talent he showed in college was truly too good to waste. Yet, the one weak link that always leaves me cautious about this team is their offensive line. Cutting Alex Cappa was a start, but I don’t know if it truly fixed everything. They allowed forty-eight sacks the season before, so even though they have a boatload of talent on the offensive side of the ball, it might be another wasted season if Burrow cannot stay in the pocket.

We all know what is going to hold the Bengals back from making the playoffs and that is their defense. Sure, they let go of Lou Anarumo and replaced him with Al Golden. But that side of the ball still has so many flaws and weaknesses. For starters, not only is Trey Hendrickson holding out for a new deal, but so is their first round pick Shemar Stewart! Cincinnati already lost Sam Hubbard due to retirement, so if they lose two of the only guys that will keep this defense relevant, then that is just going to give the secondary even more trouble. Cam Taylor-Britt is probably the only notable player on that unit, but he is another player that has been inconsistent throughout his career. Geno Stone has not been the difference maker the Bengals were expecting, even with a late turnaround. Even their run defense was a massive flaw, although Logan Wilson finished 2024 with over 100 tackles. Maybe Oren Burks can stabilize things since he is a solid rotational piece, but you can only ask but so much.

In what is expected to be a back-and-forth shootout, I think that the home-field advantage will give Josh Allen a chance to finally beat Joe Burrow in a football game. Whichever quarterback has the ball in his hands in the final two minutes is going to win, so the Bills defense better make sure that their reigning MVP is the one that gets to decide the outcome.

WEEK 15 @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

I do not see this series ending in a sweep for either team. If you truly look at this matchup, the Patriots had a legitimate chance of beating the Bills twice last year, even though they were terrible. Buffalo has had a tough time in Gillette Stadium over the last couple of seasons, so now that Mike Vrabel is on the other sideline, I could see that slump continuing for another one.

WEEK 16 @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

The biggest reason why I am picking the Bills to win is very simple: the Browns do not have a surefire starter at quarterback. They might have drafted Dillon Gabriel AND Shadeur Sanders, but if the only veteran backups are Joe Flacco and Kenny Pickett, then that is not the best considering that Deshaun Watson suffered two torn Achilles injuries. It doesn’t help that Nick Chubb is no longer on the roster, despite the fact that he was a shell of himself trying to come back from that knee injury, and then later suffered a broken foot late in the 2024 season. The good news is that Cleveland made sure to draft not one but TWO future running backs to their core! I’m curious to see which one will be the lead between Qunshon Judkins and Dylan Sampson, because if I’m being quite honest, I don’t know what role Jerome Ford is going to carve out in this offense. In the passing game, the two main focal points will most likely be Jerry Jeudy and David Njoku, but there need to be more than a few guys that will have to step up. Cedric Tillman, David Bell, and Diontae Johnson are the more notable examples. However, that offensive line really took a huge slide as it allowed the second most sacks in the league. Even with the addition of Teven Jenkins, I do not know if we are going to see any improvement, unless one of these four quarterbacks completely stun us and somehow lift this team to the playoffs.

Their defense is not void of blame because after a dominant 2023 season, they saw signs of regression as well. A lot of it happened to do with the setbacks of the offense, but Myles Garrett was quite possibly the only player showing any form of consistency. One of the boldest moves they made in regards to that defense was to trade down three spots from the second overall pick and select Mason Graham out of Michigan, while receiving a significant package that includes a future first. Jacksonville might have been the lucky ones to select Travis Hunter, but if Graham turns into a successful player, then Cleveland will have little regrets. The rest of their defensive line has a bunch of rotational pieces that can make solid contributions, but the linebacking corps took a hit with Jeremiah Owusu-Koromoah ruled out for the season due to a neck injury. Even though they signed Jerome Baker and kept guys like Devin Bush and Jordan Hicks around, the Browns are going to have an average run defense at best. I cannot say anything different for the secondary, because although Denzel Ward and Grant Delpit are absolute studs, the rest of the group could not follow the way. Martin Emerson and Greg Newsome have been massive disappointments, Rayshawn Jenkins is just an okay safety, and it didn’t help that Juan Thornhill left in free agency. Jim Schwartz is one of the smartest defensive minds in the game, but after that dip of a performance last year, who knows which direction they will take this season?

If the Bills somehow lose this game and the Patriots are actually good this year, then this team’s grip on the AFC East lead is going to slip away before they go to sleep at night.

WEEK 17 vs. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Another team that Josh Allen has failed to beat in his career is the Philadelphia Eagles, who just happened to win the Super Bowl last season. I won’t be like a bunch of national media pundits and say that Philadelphia is starting a dynasty, but they are the most feared team in the NFC. Jalen Hurts finally got the respect he deserved by winning a championship and the game’s MVP, because when Philadelphia’s best player Saquon Barkley was held in check, it was the quarterback that rose up to the moment and redeemed himself from two years ago. Thankfully, the offense from that season will be back. Saquon is still at the peak prime of his career, the Eagles have one of the best receiving duos featuring AJ Brown and Devonta Smith, but one of the best news of the offseason was that they found a way to keep tight end Dallas Goedert for the foreseeable future. The offensive line has four of its five starters returning, so this offense should still be dominant on paper. The last thing Philadelphia wants, however, is a repeat of what happened two years ago. They might have finished with a winning season and a playoff appearance, but they collapsed after a 10-1 start and got demolished in the Wild Card with two different coordinators than the ones they had in their first Super Bowl matchup against the Chiefs.

Thankfully, Vic Fangio will still be in charge of the defense, which means you should not experience a setback any time soon. Even though they lost a ton of pieces in the offseason, Philly is deciding to focus on its youth to keep their repeat chances alive. Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis will be the two key pieces to their defensive line, with assistance from Nolan Smith and perhaps Jalyx Hunt coming around the edge. In the second level, Zack Baun will be the quarterback of the unit as he is coming off of a breakout season, with the confidence that he will come out stronger this year. With help from Nakobe Dean and rookie Jihaad Campbell, I don’t expect that run defense to get worse. The secondary is where it gets really interesting because even though they are still young, both Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean formed into a lethal cornerback tandem. Reed Blankenship has evolved into a legitimate starting safety and Sydney Brown is hoping to reach that level, so there is depth in that group as well. I don’t think that defense will be as dominant as it was the year before, especially since there will be a lot more inexperienced guys being thrusted into starting positions, but then I remember what happened in 2023. When they lost to Kansas City, the Eagles had the best defense in football. One year later, they were one of the worst. It was the biggest reason why Philadelphia fell apart after such a strong start, so my fear is that it could happen again, especially since it will be a younger unit.

This is going to be another grudge match that will come down to the last play, but this will come down to physicality and defensive grit. Right now, I think the Eagles have a way better defense and if they could shut down Patrick Mahomes in a Super Bowl, then I can see them contain Josh Allen if they can pick up where this group left off the year before.

WEEK 18 vs. NEW YORK JETS

My guess is that by the time this matchup arrives, the Bills would have already clinched the AFC East and would have nothing to play for besides momentum. It will be interesting to see if Buffalo’s starters are on the field, but I can see this series ending in a split, especially since Aaron Glenn wants to make sure that this season ends on a high not for his football team.

FINAL RECORD PREDICTION: 13-4