Week 11

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:

NEW YORK JETS (2-7) vs. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (8-2)

Thursday Nov. 13 @ 8:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime

On Thursday night, the Patriots will be debuting their rivalry jerseys in a division rivalry showdown against the New York Jets. On the surface, New England should win this game convincingly, but the Jets are coming off their second win in a row and they want to prove that they are not messing around for the rest of the year.

Before the bye week, the Jets were able to beat a Bengals team with an efficient offense but a horrendous defense. This past Sunday, they held on against the Cleveland Browns, who have a shutdown defense yet a struggling offense. The Patriots, meanwhile, have a top ten scoring offense and a top ten scoring defense. New England knows how to expose a team’s biggest weaknesses and take advantage of them. For New York, it is Justin Fields. The Patriots have not allowed a single rusher to total 50 yards, so if Breece Hall cannot go anywhere, then the Jets quite literally have no offense. Garrett Wilson has not practiced this week due to a knee injury and if he is out, Fields is not going to push the ball down the field. New England’s defense might be prone to slow starts, but against inferior opponents, they usually figure it out as the game progresses. That is the least of my worries.

What can give the Jets a chance to compete is their defense because it has been somewhat impressive in the last few weeks, outside of their win against the Bengals. The Patriots do not have the best offensive line as it has allowed the second most sacks in the NFL. This past Sunday, Will McDonald had four sacks, three of them in the first half. The last time New England faced him on a Thursday night stage, he totaled two. Granted, the Jets did trade away Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams, but the Patriots cannot underestimate their competition. As long as they play their game and not get in their own way, they will be in great shape.

FINAL LOCK: As much as the Jets want to believe that they can pull off an upset, the Patriots are just a stronger football team. They are better coached, they sure as hell have a better quarterback and the defense is more consistent. It’s going to take a perfect performance for New York to have any chance and I don’t see that happening.

FINAL SCORE: NE 31-14

FIRST GAME IN MADRID:

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (3-7) vs. MIAMI DOLPHINS (3-7)

Sunday Nov. 16 @ 9:30 a.m. ET on NFL Network

For the first time, the NFL will be hosting a game in Madrid, Spain. Unfortunately, this is not exactly going to be the type of matchup we all hoped it would be once it was announced. Both the Dolphins and Commanders only have three wins this season and one more loss could officially wipe out their playoff chances. 

I don’t like using injuries as an excuse but it’s hard not to do that when it comes to the Washington Commanders. They don’t have their starting quarterback, best wide receiver, two veteran pass rushers and a starting cornerback. It was predictable and obvious to see them get blown out by the Detroit Lions at home because Washington has no depth whatsoever. When Treylon Burks is your leading receiver, there is a serious problem with your team. Deebo Samuel just keeps losing his burst by the week, Zach Ertz is 34 years old and they have no offense if they cannot run the ball particularly well. Defensively, Dan Quinn had to take play-calling duties from defensive coordinator Joe Whitt Jr., yet I don’t know if that is going to change anything. They give up the second most passing yards in the league and they do not have anybody to take over the game besides a bunch of past-their-prime players. 

The Dolphins are just as flawed, but they are coming off their most impressive victory as they trampled the Buffalo Bills 30-13. Even with Tua Tagovailoa throwing two interceptions, he threw a couple sweet touchdown passes to begin the game and De’Von Achane did a tremendous job putting the game out of reach when Buffalo tried to come back. This is the second time where Miami pulled off a stunning upset against a team expected to crush them by 20, but instead of being impressed, I am still annoyed because I don’t know why they cannot do this every week. It’s clear that the players are still fighting for Mike McDaniel to stay as the head coach, but one more loss could officially make this a lost season.

FINAL LOCK: On the surface, this should be a high-scoring affair between two troublesome defenses. However, I think we are going to get more of a defensive grudge match in Madrid. The Dolphins have proven they can shut down just about any offense in the league if they play at their peak, while the Commanders are trying to fix their identity with somebody different calling the plays. Having said that, I believe Miami will win just because they are healthier and they have built more momentum than their opponent over the last few weeks.

FINAL SCORE: MIA 20-17

THE 1:00 SLATE:

CAROLINA PANTHERS (5-5) vs. ATLANTA FALCONS (3-6)

It has been nearly two months since these two teams played each other for the first time this year, when the Panthers pulled off a stunning 30-0 upset at Bank of America Stadium. This time, the Falcons are expected to score at least a few more points, but this is a must-win game for both teams. If Carolina loses, then they have a lot of ground to cover if they want to get back into the Wild Card race. If Atlanta loses their fifth game in a row, they could officially label 2025 as a lost season.

Who could have anticipated that the Falcons would be on a four game losing streak entering this game? With the amount of talent they have on their offense and a defense that has played relatively solid this season, the fact they are 3-6 is just unacceptable. My biggest reason why Atlanta is in this situation is because of the quarterback play. I personally like Michael Penix Jr., but he has been average at best with just nine touchdown passes and three interceptions. It is why their offense has scored the fifth fewest points in the National Football League and any time they need him to deliver in the clutch, he freezes up and the team loses as a result. Heading back home to play a division rival, Penix has to remind us why Atlanta made the bold decision to draft him in the first round the same season where they gave Kirk Cousins over $100 million guaranteed. Otherwise, coaches and executives might be scapegoated if they lose again and their upcoming offseason will look incredibly bleak.

What we saw from the Panthers last week is exactly what I’ve been warning everybody about these last couple weeks. The minute you slow down Rico Dowdle, their offense doesn’t work. Just like Penix, Bryce Young has just been okay. He’ll show flashes that will excite you, but then there are more moments where you say, “this guy was the number one overall pick?” Last Sunday, he only threw for 124 yards against a Saints team in freefall with two turnovers. The silver lining for Young is that the last time he played in Mercedes Benz Stadium, he had one of the best games of his career, so let’s see if he has something up his sleeves this time. 

FINAL LOCK: I don’t see the Panthers beating the Falcons twice this year. If that happens, then it will be absolutely stunning. Atlanta is more desperate for a victory because one more loss could officially knock them out of the playoff picture, especially in a stacked NFC. They should be the better team with a better defense and a more dynamic offense, so if they play exactly the way they did in week three, then they deserve to get embarrassed once again.

FINAL SCORE: ATL 27-20

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (6-3) vs. BUFFALO BILLS (6-3)

Oh boy, this is going to be one heck of a heavyweight fight between two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Both are coming off gut-wrenching losses and are going to be more motivated than ever to lead their teams to victory. For this particular matchup, it is not so much about strategy, but who is willing to sacrifice the most.

The Bills need a win badly because right now, they are not even the fifth seed in the AFC playoff race. They are two games behind the New England Patriots in the division and that is the price they have to pay after getting demolished by the Miami Dolphins. They had several chances to get back into the game, but they kept getting in their own way with turnovers and costly mistakes. It took until the fourth quarter for them to score and whenever they did, the defense let up a huge play by De’Von Achane to put the game out of reach. They are abysmal against the run, they have next to no pass rush, their secondary has flaws and the offense really centers around two guys: Josh Allen and James Cook. Moving forward, the margin of error for Buffalo is incredibly small. They have the pieces they need to make a deep playoff run but it is how they handle themselves mentally that will be their true test. 

Given the fact that the Buccaneers play in a terrible division, there is no question they will make it back to the playoffs. However, they are not the third best team in their conference. Tampa might be able to make it out of the first round, but three teams are going to send them home: Philadelphia, Detroit and Los Angeles. The Bucs already lost to two of them and earlier this week, they lost to one of the best teams in the AFC. What do you think is going to happen when they have to go on the road and play a motivated Bills squad? I get Tampa is dealing with a lot of injuries but at some point in time, we need a vintage performance from them that tells us they can be a dark-horse candidate for the Super Bowl. If they go out there and come up just short once again, the team’s ceiling will be the second round and nothing more.

FINAL LOCK: I like the Bills better in this game. I believe we are going to get a close fight because Buffalo’s defense is flawed and Josh Allen will do everything he can to carry the team to victory. However, I have to side with the team that has the home field advantage and I believe the only way we can see the script flipped is if Baker Mayfield has a career-defining performance of his own. 

FINAL SCORE: BUF 30-22

HOUSTON TEXANS (4-5) vs. TENNESSEE TITANS (1-8)

The reports are saying that CJ Stroud is still dealing with concussion symptoms, so Davis Mills could be in line to make his second start of the season. Fortunately for him, I don’t think he needs to rely on fourth quarter heroics to win this particular game.

This should go without saying but the Titans are the worst team in the league. The Texans might not exactly be a legitimate powerhouse, but they have the number one defense and their offense is one that can be a capable unit if they do not get in their own way. The fact that Tennessee only traded a few depth pieces at the deadline is laughable because there is nothing special about this football team. Every time that I hope for Cam Ward to have a solid performance, the rest of the guys around him decide not to show up and they get humiliated as a result. Mills does not even have to be the hero to win on Sunday. As long as Houston does not get in their own way, they will be fine.

FINAL LOCK: Nobody should be surprised that game previews involving the Tennessee Titans should be short and sweet. Unless they finally give us a reason to be excited about them, then I believe they are going to get blown out in almost every game they plaay this year. 

FINAL SCORE: HOU 27-3

CHICAGO BEARS (6-3) vs. MINNESOTA VIKINGS (4-5)

Bears fans don’t want to remember the last time they played the Vikings. Don’t worry, I’ll remind everybody. Chicago was ahead 17-6 in the fourth quarter, only for JJ McCarthy to come alive in the final minutes with a 21-7 scoring run to lead Minnesota to victory! Ironically, the Bears are the ones positioned to make the playoffs while the Vikings are stuck in the purgatory known as mediocrity. This is going to be another exciting grudge match between two hated division rivals but only one of them will come out on top.

I never know which Vikings team I am going to get on a weekly basis. Last week, they pulled off an impressive road upset against the Lions. The next Sunday, they could not stop getting in their own way against the Ravens. Now they are welcoming the Chicago Bears and this cannot be a game where Minnesota stumbles into another frustrating defeat. They have too much talent on both sides of the ball to be a subpar football team right now. All I want is some consistency, yet apparently that is too much to ask. For the Vikings to win this game, they cannot let the Bears hang around, especially down the stretch. Chicago might be a flawed playoff contender, but they are sure as hell opportunistic and they can make any opponent pay for their mistakes in the fourth quarter. JJ McCarthy cannot be the biggest reason why his team loses. Otherwise, it is going to be more than an uphill climb for them to get back in the playoffs.

I hate to say it, Bears fans, but your team is probably the most fraudulent playoff contender in the league this year. Yeah you might be in a way better position than you have been in the last few seasons, but there’s no way you can just keep getting away with barely beating bad teams in the league. After the week three blowout win against the Cowboys, it feels like Chicago can’t catch a break. It took a blocked field goal to beat the Raiders, a few turnovers to hold on against Washington, a horrible missed tackle to hang on against the Bengals and they just had to overcome a 10-point deficit against the Giants at home! Just like the Vikings, the Bears are just way too inconsistent and I don’t think it is sustainable. I like the roster and I love the guys in charge, but there is going to come a point in time where these flaws just get exposed and I won’t be surprised when it happens.

FINAL LOCK: When these teams played each other in week one, I said that coaching would be the biggest factor. Now, it comes down to the quarterbacks. I’m not necessarily concerned about who between Caleb Williams and JJ McCarthy is going to screw up. I just want to see which one will make enough plays down the stretch to win the game. Both are capable of showing up in the clutch, so I feel that whoever has the ball last will have enough energy left to finish the job.

FINAL SCORE: CHI 24-23

GREEN BAY PACKERS (5-3-1) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS (2-8)

Something tells me this is going to be a trap game for the Packers. All the signs are obvious. The Giants just fired their head coach, their starting quarterback is Jameis Winston, but Green Bay is coming off their second loss in a row. This is not going to be a cakewalk and I am obviously curious to see how things are going to play out in the end.

If anybody is in more desperate need of a victory, it is the Packers. They went from being a potential Super Bowl contender after the first two weeks to a team that is probably going to get the seventh seed in the playoffs for a third consecutive season. They might be good, but they have not been great. I get their offense is dealing with a few key injuries, yet the fact that they are considered an average unit with the talent they have is concerning. Right now, they just do not have a true identity established. They can run the ball with Josh Jacobs, yet there are moments where the passing game completely shuts down. The defense has still been respectable for the most part, but there have been times where they have been on their toes for too long as well. Jameis Winston might have a turnover problem, but we saw a few games last year when he was with Cleveland, in which he did what it took to lead the team to victory. Green Bay has to figure out how they can get out of their slump or else the Giants are going to pull off the most hilarious upset of the week.

It has been a rough week for the Giants. They lost Jaxson Dart to a concussion, Brian Daboll got fired and now Jameis Winston is going to be the starting quarterback. Plus Shane Bowen is still their defensive coordinator. It’s hard to be too excited at MetLife Stadium but my silver lining is that things are not as egregious as they were last year. This game is going to go one of two ways. Either Winston balls out and New York has enough energy to pull off a tremendous upset or he reverts to his 2019 Tampa Bay form and costs his team a chance at winning. Personally, I feel like it can go either way. If Tommy DeVito can beat the Packers at MetLife, so could a former number one overall pick who gives pregame speeches better than most quarterbacks in the NFL.

FINAL LOCK: I am going to pick the Packers to win for now, but I am not feeling confident about them whatsoever. My guess is that this will be a high scoring affair but at the end of the day, I still trust Jordan Love and Josh Jacobs more than Jameis Winston and whoever New York has left on offense. 

FINAL SCORE: GB 30-27

CINCINNATI BENGALS (3-6) vs. PITTSBURGH STEELERS (5-4)

Ladies and gentlemen, the Icy Hot Bowl: Episode 2! It’s definitely not as appealing as the Thursday night matchup last month but the Steelers are in need of a win badly after getting dominated on a prime time stage this past Sunday against the Chargers. The Bengals are also desperate for a victory, not just because their season is still reeling from destruction, but because they want to make sure they have a decent record by the time Joe Burrow comes back from his toe injury.

When these teams played each other at Paycor Stadium, neither offense could be stopped. Aaron Rodgers threw for four touchdown passes while Joe Flacco threw for over 340 yards with three touchdowns himself. The latter ended up getting the ball last and drove his team into field goal range to set up the winning kick for Evan McPherson. This time, Pittsburgh has the home field advantage and when it comes to division rivalry matchups on this stage, they like to play under their terms. That means the defense is going to kick it up an extra notch, the offense will play complimentary football and the opposition will not have a chance of winning. Knowing that Cincinnati’s defense is absolutely terrible, it’s not impossible to see this script play out live. However, the Steelers know that for this to come to fruition, the first part of that equation needs to step up big time.

The Pittsburgh defense has totaled 10 sacks in the last two weeks, which is great, but the record is 1-1. The last time they played Ja’Marr Chase, they simply had no answers for him as he caught 16 passes for 161 yards. More importantly, they allowed Chase Brown to rush for 108 yards on just 11 carries. Mike Tomlin knows that their last performance against the Bengals was simply unacceptable and his defense needs to do the exact opposite this time around. 

FINAL LOCK: I highly doubt that Cincinnati is going to beat Pittsburgh twice this year. I will be impressed if that happens but I never like picking against the Steelers when they play against division rivals at home. I don’t think we will get a blowout, but I expect this team to win the trenches and more importantly, make fewer mistakes. If they can do the bare minimum and not turn the ball over, they can do just enough to win.

FINAL SCORE: PIT 20-16

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (7-3) vs. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (5-4)

This is actually the first time that the Chargers and Jaguars are playing each other since the Wild Card round in the 2022 postseason, when Trevor Lawrence and company erased a 27-0 deficit to win 31-30! Both teams now have different head coaches, but some of the players on both teams still remain and I am sure that LA has not forgotten what happened at EverBank Stadium that fateful night.

After a shaky three-week stint where the Chargers found themselves 4-3, they have now won three in a row and are starting to look like the playoff contender we all thought they would be at the beginning of the season. While their latest performance against Pittsburgh was not perfect, their offense played smart football and the defense really led the way from start to finish. What I think will allow Justin Herbert to have a strong performance this time is that he will have a clean pocket. The Jaguars defense currently has the fewest sacks in the league and more importantly, they have fallen off over these last three games. The only way for Los Angeles to lose is if they turn the ball over more than once and if that is the case, then Trevor Lawrence needs to step up big time.

Jacksonville’s defense definitely deserves the most blame for blowing a 29-10 lead to Davis Mills and the Houston Texans, but their offense played a huge role in that collapse as well. It’s time to face reality. Since that Monday night win against Kansas City, this offense has gone nowhere. Their passing game is in circles, they have not run the ball particularly well, the line has been awful and Trevor Lawrence is proving that he cannot be the face of a franchise. The Chargers defense has not even looked particularly strong from last year and they are still allowing the fourth fewest yards and eighth fewest points in the National Football League. Lawrence has to step up big time for this team to not fall into the purgatory known as mediocrity. If he does not, then if the Texans win, the Jaguars are going to be third in the division.

FINAL LOCK: Right now, I have more faith in the Chargers than I do the Jaguars. I love their quarterback, I trust their head coach more and I believe the defense is a stronger unit. I don’t expect it to be a blowout in the first half, but I think Los Angeles will find a way to put the game out of reach in the final two quarters.

FINAL SCORE: LA 31-17

THE 4:05/4:25 WINDOW:

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (7-2) vs. LOS ANGELES RAMS (7-2)

The late afternoon window is going to give us two incredible division rivalry grudge matches that could shift the playoff race in their respective conferences. This one between the Seahawks and Rams is my favorite because both of them have the same record, their defenses are phenomenal, the head coaches are brilliant and the quarterbacks are having the best seasons of their careers. 

Seattle has won 10 straight road games with Mike Macdonald as the head coach. We know what their defense is capable of on a given week. However, Sam Darnold is going to be the biggest X factor. The reason why is because in two matchups against the Rams last year, he looked completely lost. In the Wild Card round, he got sacked nine times and scored as many points, while LA trounced the Minnesota Vikings 27-9. Right now, Darnold is having an amazing year with 17 touchdowns, just six interceptions and only 10 sacks taken. He has been the face of the franchise that the Seahawks needed. However, this is truly going to be his biggest test of the season. The Rams defense enters this game giving up the second fewest points in the National Football League, while also being ranked fourth in sacks and sixth in takeaways. If he can withstand the pressure and shut down the noise, then there is no question he can do enough to help his team win. Even then, the Seahawks need to make sure they don’t let Matthew Stafford have another lights-out afternoon.

There is no question that Stafford should be a top three candidate for MVP. He has thrown 25 touchdowns and just two interceptions. In his last five starts, he has 16 touchdowns with no picks. That is going to be extremely challenging for the fifth best scoring defense in the NFL. Not only that, but the Rams have a dynamic running back in Kyren Williams, a lethal passing attack and a top five offensive line. Now the Seahawks are tied for second in sacks with the Steelers at 32, but when it comes to division rivalry games, strategy is not the biggest factor. Everyone has the physical capabilities, but it is how they handle themselves mentally that really matters. 

FINAL LOCK: I think we’re going to get a respected fight from both sides but having said this, I like the Rams better in this game. The biggest reason why is because they are home, but more importantly, I have more faith in Matthew Stafford in the clutch than Sam Darnold. The margin for error is going to be incredibly small for both teams so one slip-up and that could swing the entire momentum of the game.

FINAL SCORE: LA 30-20

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers (6-4) vs. ARIZONA CARDINALS (3-6)

Brock Purdy is officially back from the turf toe injury and it could not have come at a better time! The 49ers have been alternating wins and losses since week four, which means that if the pattern keeps up, they should bounce back strongly on the road against a struggling Arizona Cardinals team.

Over the last four weeks, it has been pretty obvious why San Francisco has been on-and-off. When Christian McCaffrey has over 100 yards on the ground, they win. Any time he does not, they get run off the field. Right now, the Cardinals allow 114 rush yards per game, which is ranked 18th. Against the pass, they are 20th. With Ricky Pearsall returning to the starting lineup, the 49ers offense is healthy now and there should be no excuses as to why they cannot have a balanced performance. As long as they do not get in their own way with self-inflicted mistakes, they should win this game by double digits, especially after how Arizona looked last week.

Jacoby Brissett might have earned the starting quarterback job, but last Sunday was not his best performance. The Cardinals got shredded on the road by the Seahawks and there was nobody else to blame but themselves. Their offense gave up five sacks and two scoop-and-scores, while the defense let up nearly 200 yards on the ground. This team is going to need to play perfect for them to have a chance at staying competitive because if they make one mistake, even if Purdy is not 100%, the 49ers will find a way to make this a blowout. 

FINAL SCORE: With Purdy back, I like San Francisco better in this game. The biggest reason why I don’t see the Cardinals winning is because Marvin Harrison Jr. won’t be on the field, so unless Trey McBride has the best performance of his career, I don’t see anybody else in the passing game that can step up in a huge way. That’s not even mentioning the inconsistency of the running game. I think the 49ers are better coached and for that, I feel they should take care of business on the road.

FINAL LOCK: SF 28-17

BALTIMORE RAVENS (4-5) vs. CLEVELAND BROWNS (2-7)

The Ravens have won three in a row and they are now going on the road to play a two-win Browns team with a legitimate defense but a suspect offense. There is a thought in the back of my mind saying this is a trap game, so all I have to tell Baltimore is this: please don’t choke this one away!

On the surface, this should be an easy blowout. You have Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry on one side with Dillon Gabriel and Quinshon Judkins on the other. The Ravens defense has actually improved over the last few weeks and even though Cleveland’s defense is still solid, they did let up a 41 yard touchdown on a screen pass that killed their momentum against the Jets. The question is not which defense will play the best, but which offense is not going to fall into quicksand? 

FINAL LOCK: I am going to keep this brief but I think Baltimore should win this game handedly once again. I think we’ve seen enough from Dillon Gabriel to know that he is not a legitimate starting quarterback yet and this offense is the biggest reason why the Browns only have two victories this year. Until I see otherwise, the Ravens should not make this a fair fight.

FINAL SCORE: BAL 31-7

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (5-4) vs. DENVER BRONCOS (8-2)

This is the second best division rivalry game of the late afternoon window but there is a reason why. While both defenses are tremendous, I know that this game is going to come down to which quarterback will not screw up at the worst possible time and I have way more faith in Patrick Mahomes than Bo Nix. 

Have the Chiefs been perfect this year? Absolutely not. Their offense is going to face the third best scoring defense in a hostile environment so there is no margin for error whatsoever. However, I have seen enough games featuring Patrick Mahomes to know that he is capable of having strong performances against some of the best defenses in the league. If he gets the ball first and has a strong opening drive, followed by a three-and-out by Bo Nix, then who knows how many points Kansas City is going to win? Mahomes is going to be the biggest quarterback under the spotlight and rightfully so because he is still one of the best players in the league. Denver’s defense is going to have a lot of weight on their shoulders to carry this team to victory, especially if their offense fails to show up.

I can’t stress enough how big of a game this is for this Broncos offense. They might be on a seven game winning streak, but they have been inconsistent all year long and this cannot be a day where they just slump it out and see what happens. Nix cannot turn the football over, the running game needs to give Denver the edge in the time of possession and the line has to recognize exactly where the pressure is coming from every single time. One little slip up and Mahomes is going to capitalize off of it in a heartbeat. The Broncos defense might be fantastic but if they really want to win, their offense has to show up! Otherwise, they are going to get exposed and their division lead could slowly but surely slip away.

FINAL LOCK: Before the season, I had the Broncos winning this game for the simple fact they were at home. Now, I can’t trust them. I don’t think we’re getting a blowout, but like I said, this is going to come down to which offense will step up the most. I have a hard time picking against Patrick Mahomes when Bo Nix is on the other sideline.

FINAL SCORE: KC 26-16