S3 Multinomial Exercises

Suppose that in each Olympic Event, the Pakistani Team has 10% chance of winning Gold Medal, 20% chances of winning Silver Medal, 30% chances of winning Bronze Medal, and 40% chances of not winning any medal. Suppose that the Pakistani Team enters 10 Olympic Events. Calculate the probabilities of the following events:

A: 2 Gold Medals, 2 Silver, and 2 Bronze

B: ZERO medals: 0 Gold, 0 Silver, 0 Bronze

C: 1 Gold, 2 Silver, 3 Bronze

D: 0 Gold, 1 Silver, 4 Bronze

1. Intuitively, which of the combinations above should have the highest probability? Is this intuition born out by your calculations.

2. A student says that C is the only possible outcome which is in accordance with the probabilities. Can you explain why he is wrong?