FALSE: The theoretical ratio can be different from the observed value -- that is natural random fluctation. If a coin is fair and has 50% probability of coming up heads, it does not mean that in 10 trials there will be exactly 5 heads. What it does mean is that the proportion of heads should be CLOSE to 50% and also this closeness should INCREASE as the sample size grows larger. The observed ratio will never EXACTLY equal the true probability.
SOME of the reasons why the MODEL might not match REALITY are the following: