5 Pre- & Post-Experiment

Concept 5: Distinguishing between Pre & Post Experimental Situation

This is a fundamental issue in probability which does not receive sufficient attention in conventional textbooks. Furthermore, confusions about this issue are created by the conventional treatment. The goal of this set of slides is to clarify this concept.

Here are the subtopics

S1: Passage of time in model -- before and after the random draw.

S2: Passage of time in the real world -- uncertainty and its resolution.

S3: Differentiating Observed Frequency from Probabililty

S4: Objective and Subjective probability.