July

Post date: Jul 27, 2013 2:53:12 AM

Our research group has made significant progress on a number of projects throughout the month of July. In our effort to explain why the Kathmandu Valley faces such severe seismic risk, we analyzed the regional geologic setting in addition to the valley itself. Understandably, publications typically do not provide a detailed explanation of this scope. This overall picture is provided purely as background information, rather than as a focus. Instead, we want to tell a complete story of the how the Kathmandu Valley was formed, beginning as early as the collision between India and Eurasia. This involves reading publications on very specific topics, understanding the resulting controversies, and trying to fit them in with the bigger picture. Compiling this information has been exhausting, but also rewarding. Snigdha and I will be working on a poster to present at the Fall meeting of the AGU in San Francisco.

The greatest aspect of geology I have picked up is that it is a science of inference. Since these processes take place over millions of years, scientists often have to use physical models to describe how all this crust is being moved. For example, geologists can use basic mechanical principles to explain the overall behavior of very complex systems. By determining an approximate coefficient of friction along a segment of fault, they can explain how easily two blocks will move past each other. Furthermore, mathematical models are important in determining what happened in the past geologically, as well as predicting the future. Comparing models for deposition and fluvial incision (river-based erosion) would tell a scientist a lot about the uplift processes of a region. Many mathematical models are empirical, such as the equation that relates stream length to basin size (Hack’s Law).

Now that we are done with many of the scientific tasks, we are working on the social side of Anne’s project. My current work is to analyze information from a report on Kathmandu schools’ vulnerability to earthquakes. While the report provides data that we can use, there are some discrepancies within its interpretation of the data that I am trying to solve. I have already discovered that they scaled some of the casualty numbers, but there is still much work to be done. I will detail my findings in the August post, including some discussion of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis.