Blue Jays, 2025

Overview

The Jays' 2024 campaign ended fittingly, being swept by the Miami Marlins, the third-worst team in the MLB. One season removed from finishing second in the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes, the Blue Jays sat dead-last in the American League East, and lay in turmoil off the field as much as they were on it. Star slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s murky future with the franchise cast an uncomfortable gloom over the nation, while disgruntled shortstop Bo Bichette and his looming contract increased the headache for the Jays’ front office and fans.

However, the year that followed was a stark contrast to projections and fan expectations. The Blue Jays, led by stars Vladdy (who re-signed in April), Bichette, and George Springer — along with timely depth from the bottom of the lineup — surged to the top of the standings and finished with the best record in the American League. The Jays kept the gas on in the playoffs and hit their way through to the World Series, where they ultimately were defeated in Game 7, extra innings. Needless to say, the 2025 Blue Jays had arguably the greatest one-season turnaround in MLB history.

Regular Season

The Jays entered Opening Day with a measly 42% chance to make the playoffs and a 2.5% chance to win the World Series. For context, the mighty Dodgers held a 97.6% playoff projection and a 23.2% World Series rate.

The Jays began the season as mediocre as their 2024 squad, sitting at 26–28 and needing to leapfrog four teams to gain a playoff spot. Then they got hot. Over the next two months, the Blue Jays dominated, going 37–14 — this 51-game stretch vaulted them to #1 in MLB and earned them a first-round bye in the 2025 playoffs.

The Jays' remarkable season was mainly driven by improbable production from role players. Depth pieces such as Myles Straw, Addison Barger, Nathan Lukes, and Ernie Clement provided support for the Jays’ star core. The contributions from the bottom of the order were the main change from the previous season, when it often seemed like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was carrying the offense on his own.

Top contributors for the Jays included first-baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and George Springer — who together hit 43% better than league average. The star veterans still provided the bulk of the offense even as depth production increased.

Playoffs

Yankees

The Jays entered the playoffs swinging — they blew the top off of the Yankees’ defense and pitching, running away with both Games 1 and 2 and scoring 23 runs in two games. Over the first 14 innings of the series, Vlad Jr. had more home runs than the Yankees had runs.

The Jays could be seen in their dugout, just as ecstatic as their home fans, while the Yankees sat deflated and disheartened, the lone outliers in the euphoric atmosphere.

However, once the series shifted to New York, the stage flipped. The Jays stayed on pace for their lofty scoring average, posting 6 runs in the first three innings of Game 3 — highlighted by a Vladdy homer for the third consecutive game. Toronto held a commanding 6–1 lead, stunned silence from the home crowd, and roughly a 90% win probability. Then, with the game seemingly in hand, the lead unraveled. The Yankees smacked two doubles, a single, and a sacrifice fly to cut the deficit to 6–3, before the now-infamous Aaron Judge foul-pole three-run homer in the fourth tied the game. In hindsight, that homer got lost in the shuffle with other memorable moments later, but at the time it was a huge blow to Toronto. From there, the Jays could not rebound and ultimately lost 9–6.

This loss could have ended the Jays' season — momentum and confidence both shaken. Jays fans, especially those in Toronto, began to doubt, having grown accustomed to painful playoff collapses.

However, the Jays executed resilience. With a few clutch hits in the seventh, they finished the job and eliminated the Yankees. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. put the icing on the cake after his 9-hit, 3-homer, four-game performance — declaring, “DAAAA YANKEES LOSE!”

Mariners

If the Jays had any preconceived notions about the historically cursed Seattle team being an easy out, they quickly realized they were in for a battle — not a walk in the park. The Mariners, fresh off a record-breaking 15-inning Game 7 against the Detroit Tigers, came to Rogers Centre and beat the Jays at their own game: out-hitting and out-scoring them, easily winning Games 1 and 2 and silencing a city in just over a day.

The Jays, having powered through to the ALCS relatively unscathed, now faced a 2–0 hole heading into enemy territory.

More of the same began Game 3, with Toronto giving up two runs early and flirting with a three-game skid and an unlikely comeback. But the Jays had a secret weapon: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. The hometown hero, aided by three hits from George Springer and a total of 18 team base hits, sparked a 12–0 run — revitalizing the series and staking Toronto’s reputation as a comeback-specialist squad.

Game 4 belonged to the Jays too, fueled by a vintage outing from Max Scherzer. Vladdy struck again with a homer, and Toronto rolled to an 8–2 win, evening the series.

In pivotal Game 5, adversity struck again. After leaving the bases loaded with no outs in the fourth, the Jays would pay for it. Entering the eighth leading 2–1, they succumbed when Mariners slugger Eugenio Suárez crushed a grand slam following some shaky relief pitching. Toronto was now one loss away from elimination.

Fortunately, the Jays — rejuvenated by their faithful fans — responded. A tremendous seven-strikeout start from Trey Yesavage and a two-hit, homer performance by Vladdy set the stage for a classic Game 7.

In Game 7, an early double by Julio Rodríguez and a subsequent run silenced the crowd, but the Jays responded in the bottom half: George Springer, days after a brutal HBP, came up big — scoring from second on a base hit. Then Seattle struck again: Julio Rodríguez hit a solo homer, and later Cal Raleigh added another — giving the Mariners a 3–1 lead. In a low-scoring game, that deficit looked insurmountable, and many believed the Jays’ improbable run had ended.

But Toronto wasn’t done yet. Springer crushed an Eduard Bazardo sinker into the seats, flipping the score and sending the crowd — and all of Canada — into a frenzy. The shell-shocked Mariners couldn’t respond in the final two innings: Julio Rodríguez — who had torched Jays pitching — struck out on six straight balls to end the game. The Jays were bound for the World Series.

Dodgers

Poised to be the David in a David-vs-Goliath scenario, the Jays entered the World Series with a relatively humble roster compared to the powerhouse Dodgers — whose batting order featured three MVPs, six All-Stars, and multiple players with Silver Slugger pedigree. Their pitching staff, too, was stocked with established veterans.

Nevertheless, outstanding hitting from Vladdy, Addison Barger, Alejandro Kirk, and Bo Bichette gave the Blue Jays a commanding 3–2 lead heading into Game 6. With nearly all of Canada, the MLB, and Toronto yearning for a Jays victory, they were just one win from immortality.

Despite the immense pressure, the Jays nearly pulled it off. Myles Straw reached base late, and Barger smacked what appeared to be an inside-the-park home run — a hit that would’ve forced a walk-off and a Jays championship. But in a baffling turn, the homer was ruled dead — deemed stuck in the wall — and downgraded to a ground-rule double.

Fans and commentators erupted in disbelief; similar plays had been ruled home runs under less ambiguous circumstances before. Still, the call stood. After an Ernie Clement pop-out, the Dodgers turned a double play, sending the series to Game 7.

Game 7. In one of the most anticipated games in recent MLB history, Canada stood on edge. A Bo Bichette homer gave Toronto a 3–0 lead early, and they held a 4–2 advantage entering the seventh — a two-run cushion and nearly 90% win probability.

In the eighth, the Dodgers clawed back with a Max Muncy homerun, closing the gap to 4–3. In the ninth, with the Jays and all of Canada three outs away from victory, All-Star closer Jeff Hoffman fanned Kike Hernández and Miguel Rojas to bring the Jays within one out of the title. But then, the unthinkable: Rojas — a defense-first player who had only 7 home runs all season and had gone a month without a hit — launched Hoffman’s pitch into the stands, delivering the Dodgers an improbable lead and breaking Canadian hearts.

However, the Jays had one last chance. Vlad crushed a deep drive to the warning track but fell just ten feet short of a game-winning homer. Following a walk and a hit-by-pitch, the bases were loaded with one out — Daulton Varsho stepped up needing a hit to win it all. Instead, he pushed a ground ball up the middle. Rojas fielded it and threw to Will Smith, who beat Toronto’s Isiah Kiner-Falefa by what seemed like millimeters for the second out.

Still alive, the Jays watched anxiously as Ernie Clement crushed a deep ball, causing confusion and a collision between Dodgers outfielders. But the baseball gods did not budge — Andy Pages disentangled himself and snatched the ball. The Jays’ championship hopes faded.

In the top of the tenth, they managed to tiptoe away from a bases-loaded threat, but couldn’t muster a rally themselves. In the eleventh, the Dodgers — finally composed — got down to business. A solo homer by Will Smith sealed the Blue Jays’ fate.

The Jays’ season ended there; after one of the most improbable runs in MLB history, the dream slipped through their fingers.

What Now?

Since the season finale, the Jays’ potential roster has been uncertain. Still reeling from the heartbreaking loss, the club is working to add more firepower to their batting order — reportedly pursuing top free agents such as Kyle Tucker. A priority must also be locking up Bo Bichette and persuading him to return.

Fortunately for Toronto, the Jays remain an attractive landing spot for free agents. Their passionate fan base and demonstrated ability to win games — as shown by their World Series appearance — are compelling selling points. But the lure of the Dodgers and Los Angeles may prove too strong for many elite free agents to ignore.