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Trump or Biden? Country Votes As Election Comes Down To The Wire

A Rundown of Presidential, Senate, House, and Local Elections

Editor Tyler Bagent

After a long and grueling campaign season, Election 2020 headed to a close as people across the country head to the polls to pick the next President of the United States. In addition to the presidency, state and local races are also up for grabs this Tuesday. So, where do things stand?

PRESIDENTIAL RACE

At the top of the ballot and at the top of headlines, the Presidential Race is the most closely watched election this year. For months, Former Vice President Joe Biden (D) has held a steady lead both nationally and in the swing states that decide the election. Biden’s leads are as follows: (Source - FiveThirtyEight Polling Averages, October 29th, 2020)

Arizona: Biden +2.8%

Florida: Biden +2.2%

Georgia: Biden +1.7%

Iowa: Biden +0.3%

Michigan: Biden +8.1%

Minnesota: Biden +8.2%

Nevada: Biden +6.1%

New Hampshire: Biden +11.4%

North Carolina: Biden +2.1%

Ohio: Trump +0.1%

Pennsylvania: Biden +5.1%

Texas: Trump +1.3%

Wisconsin Biden+8.5%

So far, the Coronavirus Pandemic has dominated the election, especially as the country battles through a third peak of the virus. President Donald Trump’s handling of the pandemic has largely been seen as a weak spot for him. A recent Suffolk Poll (rated A by FiveThirtyEight) showed the President underwater by 19% in his COVID response, 38-57.

For the last several days of the campaign, all eyes are on the Rust Belt, the region of the country that won Donald Trump the presidency four years ago. Donald Trump will visit Pennsylvania on the 31st and on the 2nd, and will head to Michigan on both the 1st and 2nd. Joe Biden visited Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin on the 30th, and plans to visit Michigan with President Obama on the 31st. On the day before Election Day, Vice President Biden, Dr. Jill Biden, VP Nominee Kamala Harris, and her husband Doug will barnstorm in each corner of the state of Pennsylvania.

Outside of the Rust Belt, the Trump and Biden campaigns have their eyes on Arizona, Texas, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and the all-important Florida. In the final stretch, Senator Harris will visit Florida on the 31st, and Georgia and North Carolina on the 1st. President Trump will Florida and Georgia on the 1st, and Florida and North Carolina on the 2nd.

As of now, FiveThirtyEight rates Joe Biden as favored to win the election, with Biden having an 89% chance to win. Some analysts and Trump surrogates have pointed at Donald Trump’s 2016 upset win as a reason to predict his re-election. However, unlike 2016, President Trump has never led in the RealClearPolitics National Average once. In addition to that, the number of undecided voters is much lower than in 2016, when both candidates had a net-negative approval rating. Right now, the only thing we know is absolutely nothing. We most likely won’t know who the president will be until (most of) the votes are counted. For now, we can just wait and see who will win.

SENATE RACES

As goes the Presidency, likely goes the Senate. Right now, according to FiveThirtyEight, there are 13 Senate races not rated as ‘Solid’ for either party. These races are Colorado, Arizona, Montana, Kansas, Texas, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Maine. Despite the large number of competitive races, there are only about 4 races that can be determined as true-tossups: MT, IA, SC, and NC.

Montana: In Montana’s Senate Election, Incumbent Senator Steve Daines (R) is facing off against Incumbent Governor Steve Bullock (D). Initially claiming that he wouldn’t run, Bullock has taken his popularity as Governor and made this red state into a battleground. Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates this election as ‘Lean R.’

Iowa: In Iowa’s Senate Election, Incumbent Senator Joni Ernst (R) will square off against Businesswoman Theresa Greenfield (D). Once seen as a rising star, Ernst has been outraised and outcampaigned by Greenfield. Ernst has also produced several gaffes, including forgetting the price of soybeans, and attacking Greenfield’s dog. Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates this election as ‘Lean D.’

South Carolina: In South Carolina’s Senate Election, Incumbent Senator and Chair of the Judiciary Committee Lindsey Graham (R) will face off against Former SC Democratic Party Chairman Jaime Harrison (D). Despite being in a reliably red state, Harrison has used Lindsey Graham’s unpopularity to bring the race within 2%. Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates this election as ‘Lean R.’

North Carolina: In North Carolina’s Senate Election, Incumbent Senator Thom Tillis (R) will face Former State Senator Cal Cunningham (D). This race has been plagued by scandal, with Cunningham caught in a sexting scandal cheating on his wife. Despite this, Cunningham has consistently led in polls. This seat is known as the ‘cursed NC seat,’ as no Senator since 2002 has held the seat longer than one term. It is yet unknown if Tillis can break the curse, as Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates the race as a pure ‘Tossup.’

Control of the Senate will be crucial in a potential Biden or Trump presidential administration for the next four years, and all eyes are on what happens in these handful of Tossup states.

HOUSE ELECTIONS AND LOCAL ELECTIONS

Perhaps the least watched set of races this year, the House is nothing but firmly in Democratic hands. Regardless if Trump or Biden wins, most all forecasters rate control of the House of Representatives as Safe D.

Despite this, Gloucester’s District has the potential to go blue for the first time since 1974. Virginia’s First Congressional District will feature Incumbent Representative Rob Wittman (R) taking on Human Rights Lawyer Qasim Rashid (D). This year has had the most competitive election in the district for decades, and both candidates have been seen on the campaign trail fighting for a seat in Congress. So far, upwards of 200k people have already voted in VA-01, looking to match 2018’s total turnout.

Other Virginian elections this year are Virginia-Senate, and two ballot initiatives looking to amend the Constitution of Virginia. In the Senate Election, Incumbent Senator Mark Warner (D) faces off against Professor Daniel Gade (R). The last poll of this race showed Warner up by 20%, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates the race as ‘Safe D.’ Virginia’s ballot initiatives include one for a redistricting commission, and one for the taxation of vehicles used by disabled veterans. Despite some opposition for the commission amendment, they are both expected to pass easily.

In conclusion, this election is likely to be the most consequential election of our lifetimes. The two parties competing for the Presidency and Congress have very different views of what they want the United States to look like four years from now. After a bitter, long, and hard-fought campaign, one question remains.