Niger coup threatens to destabilize region

Posted Nov 16, 2023

By Benjamin Larkin

News Editor

Recent events in Niger have threatened to destabilize the Sahel and West African regions with a coup in Niger that has left the United States’s position in West Africa unclear with the possibility of a surge in terrorist activity, waves of Migrants fleeing the region, and even military conflict.

In the west African nation of Niger a coup d'etat occurred on July 26 2023. The presidential guard detained the president of Niger and his family with presidential guard commander, General Abdourahamane Tchiani declaring himself the leader of Nigers new military junta. Since their takeover the new military government has officially expelled French counter terrorism forces stationed in their country. American counter terrorism forces have been confined to their military bases as congress has not resolved the matter of military support to Niger’s new government but on Oct 10 2023 the state department recognized the events of July 26 as an illegal overthrow of Niger’s democratic government which legally prevents the United States from providing non humanitarian aid to the nation until further legislative action is taken. President Mohammad Bazoum and his family are currently believed to be detained within the presidential palace.

The United States, the European Union, the United Nations, and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) have all demanded the release of President Bazuom and have imposed sanctions against Niger. Nnegotiations between Niger and ECOWAS are ongoing with increased sanctions and even possible military intervention having been discussed as possible responses to the coup. The European Union has voted to adopt a new policy involving Niger’s coup that would allow them to freeze assets and enact travel bans on Niger as well as mirror any additional sanctions placed on the country by ECOWAS.

Since counterterrorism forces were expelled or confined the number of attacks by Radical Islamist military groups has increased dramatically with groups such as Boko Haram and several other groups including those backed by Al Qaeda. Since 2021 attacks by Islamist insurgents have claimed the lives of hundreds of people in Niger with attacks targeting civilians as well as soldiers and public officials. International military cooperation especially with France and the United States were vital to Niger’s counter terrorist operations and without this international cooperation Niger’s military is spread thin. While it is difficult to get information concerning the exact number of terrorist incidents and the casualties involved since august when the coup occurred, it is clear that there has been an increase in attacks and deaths though the scale is unknown.

The leader of the Wagner group, a mercenary group backed by the Russian government, Yevgeniy Prigozhin visited Niger in the weeks after the coup to offer the Wagner group’s services to Niger. This was just a few weeks before he died in a mid air explosion above the Russian Federation. Niger has a military agreement with Russia that was signed in 2017, the agreement is primarily for the exchange of information between the two nations and for Russian assistance in troop training.  Several other African Nations within the Sahel region, which is the region between the Sahara desert and the more humid Savannas to its south, already have strong ties to Russia and have relied on Wagner group mercenaries for counter terrorism support, Niger was considered to be the last western aligned nation within the Sahel and a vital forward base for counter terrorist operations into the Sahel and Sahara regions.

Niger currently has a prime minister Ali Lamine Zeine who was appointed by the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland who is acting as the head of Niger’s national assembly. While the junta has stated that its intent is to transition over time into a democratic system the economic sanctions upon the nation, the threat of increased terrorist activity, and a lack of cooperation with democratic powers has made a transition into a democracy unlikely in the near future.

The effects that this coup could have on the already destabilized Sahel region could lead to a surge in terrorist activity, a large surge of migrants as people flee the region, and possibly even military conflict if the situation deteriorates to a catastrophic degree. The role of the United States in this situation is unclear though it is apparent that both the war on terror and the negative economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic are still ongoing and could lead us into new conflicts and political quagmires.