Buds, Leaves, and Global Warming 

Fall 2023-Spring 2024

This is the sixth year that seventh grade science students at Thurston will be contributing to a long-term schoolyard study with the Harvard Forest.  

You have learned how to identify trees and shrubs from the arrangement of leaves on the twigs.  

You observed and recorded the progression of leaf color change from October and continued until all leaves had either dropped or turned brown, which happened in November. 

Now, you will be observing the progression of leaf bud enlargement and opening from Mid-April and continue until all leaves have opened from their buds which should happen in May




In November, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reissued its plant hardiness map, a planning tool that offers the “average annual extreme minimum” winter temperatures for perennial plants. Last updated in 2012, the new map codifies warming temperatures for Massachusetts’ planting zones.

Todd Rounsaville, a USDA research horticulturist based in Washington, D.C., explained that the map revises what he called “climate normals” representing about 10-year blocks, and reflects a small increase in the average winter temperature.

“If you were very close to the edge [of a zone], a very small change could have put you into the next half zone,” he said.

Rounsaville said the map can be used as a risk assessment tool for crops. For example, premature warming and erratic freezes may damage flowering fruit tree buds.

For local plant experts, it’s a call to action.

The trend is pushing many plant species further toward extinction, but individual acts can encourage biodiversity — and give native plant species the best chance at survival.

“This isn’t great news,” said Trevor Smith, design and education manager for Weston Nurseries. “Can we make lemonade out of lemons? Sure.”

Thinking about new plants may excite some gardeners, but Smith found the news sobering.

“I’ve been a Zone 5 gardener the entire 25 years I’ve been in business,” he said. “The fact that I can now start using Zone 7 plants when I’m gardening towards the city is really kind of mind-blowing to me.”

The map charts 13 zones nationally using 5-degree temperature divisions, each number corresponding to a Zone A and B (1A, 1B, etc.). Massachusetts ranges from 5A (in the Berkshires) to 7B (at the edge of the Cape).

Much of Massachusetts experienced a half-zone shift in Zone 6 (6A and 6B), said Ulrich Lorimer, director of horticulture for the Native Plant Trust and author of “The Northeast Native Plant Primer” (2022). “What’s happening now is a much more rapid shift than the kinds of shifts that we’ve seen —historically — from a geological perspective. And some plants are better at shifting faster than others.”

And we have choices.

“Some people look at this, and they say: ‘Hey, this is great. I don’t have to wrap my fig trees. I can try to grow like bananas outside,’” he said. Tropical or tender plants may begin to do better with warming Boston winters, as cold-reliant plants are forced farther north, eventually squeezed into extinction off alpine peaks. 

Sugar maple, Lorimer writes in his book, is an example of a tree pushed farther north, which is beginning to affect maple harvests. 

“The impacts of climate change are going to be forever,” Smith said. “There’s a sense of sadness there. … There are species that have gone and will go extinct because of this. “




Bradley added a note of caution for gardeners looking to replace those plants with warmer-adapted ones, which often constitute ornamental plants sold by nurseries. She said they may not be the best matches for northern gardens, and are more likely to have detrimental effects on ecosystems than native species. She urged gardeners to avoid potentially invasive species. They can take over a space and become a monoculture.

Biodiversity supports a range of insect and bird species, but also makes life easier for gardeners. Rounsaville said the wrong weather pattern or insect infestation could quickly eradicate a monoculture. As for tropical temptations such as bananas, he said, “It only takes one of those chance, extreme events that could reset the clock, so to speak, on what you’ve put in your garden.”

By planting and nurturing native plants — defined as species that have evolved naturally in a region — gardeners can build climate-resistant ecologies, Lorimer said.

“I think of it as sort of active compassion for what remains,” he said.

So about those Southern plants …

Not so fast, Lorimer said. “My answer is that we don’t have to make Massachusetts look like Virginia. By embracing the genetic diversity that’s here already, and working to preserve it, it will give the plants in this region the chance to adapt.”

Transitioning an established garden to native species need not be an overwhelming prospect, Lorimer said. Ideally, aim for about a 70 percent-30 percent split between native species and other plants, which he said encourages maximum species diversity.

Good moves, Smith said, include avoiding plants grown with neonicotinoids (a type of insecticide implicated in pollinator death), improving soil porosity, creating more green space, reducing grass lawns, and investing in the native plant mission.

“Where you look at it and you’re like, ‘I’m just one person, what can I do?’” Smith said. “You can put a native plant in your garden and save a bee. … You put in some milkweed and save the monarch.”

It’s about reconnecting with nature, Smith said.

“What it is to be human,” he said, “is that you get to make a choice.”

In order to help plants adapt, so must we.

Lindsay Crudele can be reached at lcrudele@gmail.com.



Climate change also has diminished another winter freeze benefit, Lorimer said: The reduction of pest eggs, which instead may flourish unchecked. For example, woolly adelgid, a sap-sucking insect that decimates hemlock, has mostly spared the state of Maine — until recently. Lorimer said he heard reports of the pest reaching Acadia National Park.

While extinction looms, existing plants will begin to struggle, visible even at the garden level, said Bethany Bradley, a UMass Amherst Department of Environmental Conservation professor.

“It’s really the [plants] that are more cold-adapted that may start doing more poorly in our gardens,” said Bradley, plants such as those belonging to Zones 3 through 6.

And, she said, climate change brings additional challenges: It’s not just gradual temperature shifts, but also more extreme weather systems.

“The very wet wets and really dry drys that we’ve had over the last couple of summers, those stress plants, too,” she said. “So we can expect to see more plants dying in our yards.”

Research Questions for this study:

How long is the growing season in our schoolyard? How is the length of the growing season related to climate?

When does the growing season for trees in our schoolyard end this autumn, and when does the new growing season begin in the spring?

Students have recorded the progression of leaf color and leaf drop to monitor the end of the local growing season last November. The beginning of the growing season is monitored in the spring for this project. 

1. Leaf drop was determined by monitoring a consistent set of leaves regularly in order to record the date when each of these study leaves have fallen off the tree.

Students also recorded weather notes, and observations of animals and other plants in the study area.  


 2. Spring: Begin data collection in early-mid April until all study buds have burst and leaves have mostly developed.

https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/budburst-chart.pdf

Remember to stay on the path to avoid stepping on the fragile early spring wildflowers!

2024 Bud Burst Group and Tree Assignments--McCarthy Spring 2024

Lily's group counting red maple LEAVES May 11, 2018. Students will manage and analyze the project data, which will be inputted on the Harvard Forest Long Term Ecological Research(LTER) Database. Data will then be available online via the Harvard Forest website for students to compare region wide. The project data will then help students determine how long the growing season is in our schoolyard, and how the length of the growing season might relate to climate.
Kitana's group counting #84 red maple LEAVES, May 11, 2018.

American Beech #82 has persistent leaves which emerged from buds in Spring 2017. The new leaf buds are all closed on April 11, 2018.

American Beech #87 Branch B, Ava's Block 6 group, May 11, 2018.

Link to a visual guide to help determine difference between “closed, puffy and open” buds is:  http://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/sites/harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/files/budburst-chart.pdf

Labeling and Counting Leaves

Labeling and Counting Leaves

Labeling and Counting Leaves

Photos of Thurston Woods taken October 7, 2022, for baseline reference.  

Photos of Thurston Woods taken Oct. 11, 2022, for reference to baseline . 

Photos of Thurston Woods taken Oct. 17, 2022, for reference to baseline 

Photos of Thurston Woods taken October 18, 2022.

Photos of Thurston Woods taken October 20, 2022.

Photos of Thurston Woods taken October 21, 2022.

Photos of Thurston Woods taken November 7, 2022, 30 days since the first photos taken on October 7, 2022 (see above).

IMG-0220.mov

This quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) tree was caught doing its thing on the way to the leaf color change data collecting in the study plot, Oct .2022.

This gray treefrog was discovered by  Kelsey V.  

Spring peepers were abundant in Thurston Woods November 7, 2022, with above normal temperatures. 

This Araneus orb-weaver spider was attached to its orb web attached to tree 89 (a black birch), November 7, 2022.

This young adult spotted spreadwing (Lestes congener) was found at the edge of the field on the way into the the study plot, Oct. 21, 2022.  Most spreadwings are weak fliers and their flights are low, infrequent, and short in duration and distance.  Most are on the wing from mid-June through late August, although this spotted spreadwing has a late flight season, being one the latest dragonfly or damselfly on the wing in the northeast. 

The spreadwing is a damselfly, but unlike most other damselflies, perch with their wings partially open, and perch on low vegetation along fields, at an oblique angle (roughly 45°) with the lower abdomen lowered, and wings partially spread (also at or about a 45° angle). 

This is the fourth year that seventh grade science students at Thurston will be contributing to a long-term schoolyard study with the Harvard Forest.  

You have learned how to identify trees and shrubs from the arrangement of leaves on the twigs.  

You will be observing the progression of leaf color change from October and continue until all leaves have either dropped or turned brown, which should happen in November. 

Mushroom possibly nibbled on by a chipmunk discovered by Brooke B and Anna A on October 11, 2022.

Witch hazel flowers with 4 narrow yellow petals, discovered open by Anna A. on October 11, 2022. While most trees and shrubs bloom in spring or summer, witch hazels are a notable exception. Common witch hazel (Hamamelis virginiana) blooms from mid-October to early December. 

Student groups are assigned tree branches to record leaf codes for how much of each leaf has turned from green to another color,

as well as a code for total color change for the tree. 

Tiny mushrooms discovered by Saoirse D, October 7, 2022.

A much large white gilled mushrooms discovered by Saoirse D, October 17, 2022.


Close up of purple cort mushroom(Cortinarius alboviolaceus), found and photographed near black gum #91 by Cara S., October 6, 2021

Eastern red-backed salamander (Plethodon cinereus), found by and held by Matt R. October 15, 2019

Cinnnamon fern (Osmundastrum cinnamomeum) found and photographed by Amelia O. October 15, 2019.

Ella S's photo showing the witch hazel flowers which consist of four, yellow strap-like petals which curl up on cold days and unfurl in warm weather, open on October 24, 2018.

Measuring Leaves. Measure width of the leaf at its widest point. Measure the length of the leaf blade, NOT including the leaf stem (petiole).

Fall-Phenology Autumn Student Data Sheet-front

Fall-Phenology Autumn Student Data Sheet-back

Groups have developed a guide for identifying each tree species that are found in the study plot in Thurston Woods. (from: Block 3 Tree Group: Lauren B et al.)


You have used the collected tree branches with leaves, notes, and other information from the tree books you need to know in order to recognize the identity of each species when collecting tree data in the woods.  (from: Block 3 Tree Group: Lauren B et al.)

This fall, students will be observing and recording when the leaves turn color and fall off the stem. Then in the Spring, students go back to the same branches to observe and record when the leaf buds on the same trees open into leaves! (from: Block 3 Tree Group: Lauren B et al.)

Witch hazel flowers with 4 narrow yellow petals, open on November 1 , 2018. that curl up during cold temperatures and unfurl during warm days, 4 anthers containing pollen, surrounded by the nectaries. 4 stamens are in the center.  

The fruit is dry and woody and tends to stay on the branches through the winter, after expelling the seeds in the fall. Two shiny black seeds are explosively discharged as far as 10 meters with a gun like crack, often startling walkers as they pass by. The sound is so distinctive that its other common name is "snapping hazel". This dispersal mechanism ensures that new seedlings will germinate far away from the parent tree.


Witch hazel flowers with 4 narrow yellow petals Open on Nov. 1, 2018. Flies in the genus Bradysia (dark-winged fungus gnats) are the most common insects to pollinate the flowers, but is likely that other flies, owlet moths, and late flying bees and wasps are also pollinators.

If you examine the branches you will find flowers, buds, and fruit on the branches at the same time. It is the only North American tree with this trait. In fact, the generic name, Hamamelis, means "together with fruit" referring to this trait.

Spring peeper treefrog found and held by Kathryn D., October 15, 2019.

This spotted salamander metamorph was discovered under a log by Kathryn D, October 2, 2019.         Salamander held by Casey O.

Close up of garter snake found at base of red oak by Brian G., October 19, 2018.                                                                      Photo by Cheyann H.
Eastern garter snake found near black gum #91, October 19, 2018.                                                                                                    Photo by Jacob M.

Another view of the garter snake discovered at the base of a large red oak by Brian G, October 19, 2018. Photo by Nora F. 

Spring peeper found by Jacob M., Oct. 29, 2018

Witchhazel leaves and flowers, Nov. 1, 2018

Close up of a gilled mushroom, found and photographed near black gum #91 by Cheyann H.,  October 19, 2018.    
Highbush blueberry flowers on the same plant, May 11, 2018.

Many of the leaf buds on American Beech #82 have opened into leaves that are now being chewed by 1st instar gypsy moth caterpillars on May 11, 2018.

Cara M. rescued this eastern painted turtle found on the soccer field and returned the year-old reptile to Thurston Woods, May 4, 2018.

#85 Maleberry, all 6 buds open, May 11, 2018.

Nathan C. found and released this redback salamander in Thurston Woods, May 11, 2018.

Students collected leaf change data on October 1, 2, 9, 12, 17, 19, and 24, 2018. 

Here is a link to the weather conditions for that day.

F TO C: FAHRENHEIT TO CELSIUS CONVERSION FORMULA

To convert temperatures in degrees Fahrenheit to Celsius, subtract 32 and multiply by .5556 (or 5/9).