INSIDER: Why Are INDC (intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) Studies Reaching Different Temperature Estimates?

by Kelly Levin and Taryn Fransen - November 09, 2015 World Resources Institute

INDCs make a substantial contribution to bending the global emissions trajectory below our current path. However, the studies also show that without additional action, the INDCs are insufficient to limit warming to below 2°C and avoid some of the worst climate impacts. While all of the studies support these general conclusions, their numbers differ both in terms of projected temperature increase relative to pre-industrial levels, as well as emissions levels in 2025 and 2030. Below we discuss the results of various studies assessing the INDCs and highlight differences among their underlying assumptions, which can help explain why some details of their findings diverge.