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Post date: Apr 21, 2018 12:35:19 PM
By BENJAMIN STRAUSS, SCOTT KULP and PETER CLARK
Produced by JASMINE C. LEE, ANJALI SINGHVI and BILL MARSH
APRIL 20, 2018
What would happen if the current growth trend in greenhouse gas emissions continues for the rest of this century before reversing? It’s a question worth pondering, especially with a president who has vowed to quit the Paris climate accord and is aggressively promoting the use of coal, gas and oil.
Our research with colleagues indicates that one consequence would be an unrelenting rise of the oceans for 10,000 years, ultimately reaching more than 170 feet above present levels, with half of that increase occurring in the next thousand years.
The map of the world would be redrawn. As Antarctica and Greenland lost nearly all of their ice, vast portions of the United States, some more than 100 miles inland, would be inundated.
We’re hopeful that the 2015 Paris climate deal will slow emissions, and there are signs that this is happening, though efforts to meet its goals are falling behind. Even if the world’s nations manage to limit warming to near 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels — the accord’s main target — seas will continue to rise by 80 feet over 10,000 years, according to our modeling.
We are at a historic moment, and we have the science to recognize it. Because climate-warming carbon dioxide persists in the atmosphere for thousands of years, how we deal with this problem today will have profound effects long after we are gone.
Try to figure out the states by the shapes of their remaining landforms if oceans were to rise by more than 170 feet.
How did I do?
We’ll show your results once you’ve answered every question. You have 10 questions left.
Sources: Climate Central (flooding calculations); Boston Planning and Development Agency (building data)
Today’s coasts would eventually rest under 170 feet of water on average globally; the United States would see somewhat higher seas because of expected changes to Earth's shape, gravity and rotation linked to ice loss.
This analysis does not take into account that warming may cause forests, soils and permafrost to release vast stores of additional carbon into the atmosphere, compounding the problem. Maps have varying scales.
Benjamin Strauss is the chief scientist at Climate Central, where Scott Kulp is a scientist. Peter Clark is a professor of earth, ocean and atmospheric sciences at Oregon State University.
Jasmine C. Lee and Anjali Singhvi are graphics editors for The New York Times. Bill Marsh is a graphics editor for the Sunday Review section of The New York Times.
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