Embedded Files
Southwest Michigan Chapter of the
American Meteorological Society and National Weather Association
08 November 2021
West Michigan Aviation Academy
5363 44th St SE
Grand Rapids, MI 49512
Total attending: 13
President, Vice President, Treasurer, At-Large Officer present
President Warren Wheeler called the meeting to order at 7 PM.
Vice President Cort Scholten shared the results of the Summer 2021 forecast contest, which are posted on the chapter’s website at amsnwa.com. Jeff Wilhelm and Kreigh Tomaszewski were present to collect their tokens of appreciation for placing the best forecasts. Cort collected some last-minute entries which were due for the Winter 2021-22 contest.
Treasurer William Marino reported $581.00 in the Chapter’s savings account and $71.88 in the checking account. The only income for the year has been $0.84 interest.
Fond stories were shared and a moment of remembrance was held in honor of Chapter member Tricia Derry, who passed away at age 26 earlier this year.
The speaker for the evening was Treasurer and meteorologist William (Bill) Marino, on the topic of the winter outlook for West Michigan.
A review of last winter: The outlook was based on expectations of a La Niña, which generally means a slight lean toward above-normal temperatures (but close to equal chances) and a moderate lean toward above-normal precipitation. Last winter resulted in temperatures at Grand Rapids averaging out to 0.2°F below normal, precipitation 1.10 inches below normal, and snowfall 31.5 inches below normal which was significant. Detroit saw above-normal snowfall while lake effect snow belts downwind of Lake Michigan had below-normal snow. It was a warm December and January but was roughly balanced out by a cold February. The heaviest precipitation departures were focused toward the Mid-Atlantic coast, a little unusual for a La Niña.
2021-2022 December/January/February (DJF) outlook for West Michigan from CPC: slight lean toward above-normal temperatures, moderate lean toward above-normal precipitation.
Last winter the Niño 3.4 region ONI was between -1.0 and -1.4°C (moderate La Niña). It is currently between -0.7 to -1.0°C and modeled to stay pretty steady through DJF.
Looking at historical La Niña winters with a preceding Sep+Oct in West Michigan (as is the case in 2021), 12 cases were found. In those cases, the majority of Decembers were cold (and a minority were either near normal or warm), a majority of Januaries were warm, and a majority of Februaries and Marches were cold. January tended to be the wettest of the months.
In La Niña winters since 1950 with a warm Sep+Oct, the median snowfall at Grand Rapids was 73.0 inches which would be 4.6 inches below the 1991-2020 normal. There is a variety of snowfall departures when looking at other stations around West Michigan.
Like last winter, there will likely be temperature swings from month to month and it depends how it all balances out.
Bill is personally predicting snow on the ground on Christmas day.
Bill also noted his unofficial co-op station in Grandville now has NCEI calculated normals due to 20 years of continuous measurements.
Bill’s local research to supplement the West Michigan winter outlook is available at https://www.weather.gov/grr/November102021winterforecast20212022
The meeting adjourned at 8:10 PM. The next meeting is expected to be scheduled for early December.
Respectfully Submitted,
Cort Scholten - Vice President
Craig Woods - Secretary
Page updated
Report abuse