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William Marino, our treasurer, gave a presentation on the outlook for the coming winter in southwest Michigan. Bill is a lead forecaster at the Grand Rapids National Weather Service Office specializing in climate and long range weather forecasting.
Some of the factors that influence his seasonal forecasts for the winter include the following:
Temperature and precipitation trends: Over the past 25 years there has been a slight downward trend in average temperatures during the winter in southwest Michigan, although there have been 11 warmer than average winters with 7 colder than average and 7 near average.
Northern Hemisphere snow cover in October: This October has seen above average snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere, which is frequently an indication of a colder than average winter in our area.
Years that have had similar sea surface temperatures: This year’s pattern of above average sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska and generally cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere has usually produced a colder than average winter in southwest Michigan.
El Nino Southern Oscillation Index (ENSO): Most computer models are forecasting near neutral conditions, (neither El Nino nor La Nina) conditions for the coming winter months.
You can view his presentation by opening the link at the bottom of the page.
Forecasters Brandon Hoving and Bill Marino created a forecast video that you can view here: Winter Forecast on U-Tube
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