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Southwest Michigan AMS/NWA
20 November 2019
West Michigan Aviation Academy
5363 44th St
Grand Rapids, MI 49512
President Warren Wheeler called the meeting to order at 7:05 PM. All of the board members were present. Total attendance was 15 people.
The speaker’s presentation proceeded the business part of the meeting. William Marino, our treasurer, gave a presentation on the outlook for the coming winter in southwest Michigan. Bill is a lead forecaster at the Grand Rapids National Weather Service Office specializing in climate and long range weather forecasting.
Some of the factors that influence his seasonal forecasts for the winter include the following:
Temperature and precipitation trends: Over the past 25 years there has been a slight downward trend in average temperatures during the winter in southwest Michigan, although there have been 11 warmer than average winters with 7 colder than average and 7 near average.
Northern Hemisphere snow cover in October: This October has seen above average snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere, which is frequently an indication of a colder than average winter in our area.
Years that have had similar sea surface temperatures: This year’s pattern of aboveaverage sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska and generally cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere has usually produced a colder than average winter in southwest Michigan.
El Nino Southern Oscillation Index (ENSO): Most computer models are forecasting near neutral conditions, (neither El Nino nor La Nina) conditions for the coming winter months.
Winters with ENSO neutral and other similar conditions to this fall’s setup, usually receive the average snowfalls seen on this map. So Bill’s forecast for this winter is for temperatures to average below normal and for snowfall to be near to above normal near the lakeshore and near to below normal at inland areas. It is believed the prevailing storm track will be mainly south and east of Michigan with much of our snow coming from lake effect.
After his talk, William Marino then presented the treasurer’s report. Since two members paid their dues for 2020 at the meeting, we now have 13 paid members for next year. We have funds of $1071.27 in our bank account. Gift cards were presented to the winners of the summer forecast contest. The deadline has passed for entries to be submitted for the winter forecast contest.
There will likely not be a meeting in December and details on the January meeting are currently being worked out. The February meeting will feature a paleoclimatologist from the University of Michigan, and in March, I will be giving a presentation on if our weather has become more severe. Please feel free to invite anyone you know who may have an interest in weather to our meetings. They are open to everyone.
The meeting was adjourned at 8:15 PM.
Respectfully submitted
Craig James Woods
Secretary
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