In this website I will use the terminology Unexplained Aerial Phenomenon and UFO interchangeably.
Added Nov 8, 2020
Link to approximately 4 hour interview by Lex Fridman of David Fravor a pilot involved in the Tic Tac episode posted Sept 8, 2020
Note: (Tic Tac discussion starts: 1:03)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aB8zcAttP1E&ab_channel=LexFridman
Added to SETI Nuggets May 16, 2020
The Navy and the UAPs, US Naval Institute
January 10, 2020
"One of the strangest mysteries of the modern U.S. Navy is a series of events that played out in 2004 and 2014–15, on each coast, involving what the Pentagon now calls “unexplained aerial phenomena” (UAP). In 2004 and 2014–15, Navy personnel flying carrier-based strike fighters and on surface warships spotted aircraft with flight and engineering characteristics currently considered impossible. The sightings are evidence that someone, somewhere has operationalized technology far beyond the apparent state of the art. The unknown craft, if not under the control of the U.S. government, might well represent a serious threat to American military superiority in a future conflict."
"The story first became public in December 2017, when The New York Times broke a story about UAPs and the Nimitz Strike Group. The USS Nimitz (CVN-68) and her escorts were doing workups in advance of their 2005 deployment. Retired Commander David Fravor, one of the aviator eyewitnesses, says the ships were approximately 60 miles off the “midpoint between San Diego and Ensenada, Mexico” on 14 November 2004. Along with the Nimitz was the guided-missile cruiser USS Princeton (CG-59) and several support ships."
"Fravor, at the time skipper of the Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 41 “Black Aces,” and Lieutenant Commander Jim Slaight were flying an air-defense training mission from the Nimitz, with Marines from the VMFA-232 “Red Devils” set to play the bad guys. The Princeton was to coordinate the exercise."
"Unbeknownst to Fravor, the exercise was about to take a turn. During the previous two weeks, radar operators on the Princeton had tracked unknown aircraft flying highly unusual maneuvers. The craft would descend from 80,000 feet, drop straight down to 20,000 feet, loiter for three to four hours, and go straight back to 80,000 feet again. As many as a dozen of these craft were sighted on the cruiser’s SPY-1 radar at a time. The Nimitz’s E-2 Hawkeye airborne early warning and control aircraft could also see the craft."
My Comments
The above is an excerpt from a post on the encounter between UAPs and the Navy's Nimitz Aircraft Carrier Strike Group. The post mentions a variety of eyewitnesses, radar and other sensors involved tracking the UAPs. Presumably there was a host of additional tracking methods not disclosed such as reconnaissance satellites and perhaps submarines.
My Conclusion
Sightings of UFOs can be assigned levels or grades of believability. A farmer in the middle of the night tending to his moonshine still who sees blinking lights, or backpackers sitting fireside may see UFOs. I think the DoD confirmed UAP Navy sightings have a high confidence level.
Many SETI scientists, for their own reasons, disregard the key scientific facts. They attempt to minimize the capabilities of the Navy eyewitnesses and tracking resources actually involved.
I believe the Navy did encounter UAPs. However, I think there is only a one out of three chance the source of the UAPs is ETs. Also I've previously mentioned I will guess the UAPs were not piloted by ETs but rather by computer systems.
April 28, 2020
I have never seen a UFO and if they have visited Earth my guess is they were not piloted by biological ETs but instead by computer systems.
IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Statement by the Department of Defense on the Release of Historical Navy Videos
APRIL 27, 2020
"The Department of Defense has authorized the release of three unclassified Navy videos, one taken in November 2004 and the other two in January 2015, which have been circulating in the public domain after unauthorized releases in 2007 and 2017. The U.S. Navy previously acknowledged that these videos circulating in the public domain were indeed Navy videos. After a thorough review, the department has determined that the authorized release of these unclassified videos does not reveal any sensitive capabilities or systems, and does not impinge on any subsequent investigations of military air space incursions by unidentified aerial phenomena. DoD is releasing the videos in order to clear up any misconceptions by the public on whether or not the footage that has been circulating was real, or whether or not there is more to the videos. The aerial phenomena observed in the videos remain characterized as "unidentified."
"Pentagon declassifies Navy videos that purportedly show UFOs."
"The Pentagon has declassified three previously leaked top secret U.S. Navy videos that show "unexplained aerial phenomena" and that some believe could show Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs) in an effort "to clear up any misconceptions by the public on whether or not the footage that has been circulating was real or whether or not there is more to the videos," said a Pentagon spokesperson."
"The aerial phenomena observed in the videos remain characterized as 'unidentified', the spokesperson added."
"The videos, previously acknowledged by the Navy as being real, captured what Navy fighter pilots saw on their video sensors during training flights in 2004 and 2015. They were published by the New York Times in 2017."
My Comments
Given the source of the press release is the Pentagon that had a few years to study the data it is likely their conclusion "unexplained aerial phenomena" is correct. I won't opine the tracked aircraft were smaller versions of the RC X-37B, laser reflections on clouds, or a bug or two in the Navy ground and air radars and other sensors.
My guess is they were not piloted by biological ETs but instead by computer systems. If the aircraft were not US, and the Pentagon would know this, then the objects would almost certainly have to be Russian or Chinese and that's not likely.
Also see, https://sites.google.com/site/myronwtechnologynuggets/seti-research/supplemental-material
Added May 4, 2020
Unidentified: Naval Pilot's Shocking UFO Encounter (Season 1) | History
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NTLSQCF6ohQ
My Comments
This video adds greater context: Number of military personnel who witnessed the phenomena and heard debriefings by the pilots first hand and some details on ground radar tracking obviating the theory the Navy jets had defective radar.
Added May 7, 2020. According to the above YouTube, the Super Hornet fighters were launched from the USS Nimitz Aircraft Carrier Strike Group.
I'm skeptical about UFO sightings and based on the set of facts I will say I am convinced the sightings were ETs at about 0.33 probability. One out of three chance the sightings were ETS.
I don't think the pilots and various types of radar are faulty but I think the flying objects could be a top secret project.
Avro Canada VZ-9AV Avrocar
Dr. Carl Sagan said "Exraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence" and I believe the Pentagon's UFO videos are extraordinary evidence. In my opinion, it is more likely ET artifacts will be discovered on Earth than discovered by listening to distant signals using radio telescopes. Scientists should constantly track the skies where the Navy has encountered possible UFOs.
Added May 5, 2020
I recall I saw the NASA 803 Northrop M2-F1 Lifting Body in the National Air and Space Museum of the Smithsonian Institution alongside the Washington DC National Mall. Lifting bodies look like UFOs so I will add these links to aircraft that could be mistaken for UFOs.
NASA Armstrong Fact Sheet: Lifting Bodies
https://www.nasa.gov/centers/armstrong/news/FactSheets/FS-011-DFRC.html
"A fleet of lifting bodies flown at NASA's Flight Research Center (FRC) at Edwards Air Force Base from 1963 to l975 demonstrated the ability of pilots to maneuver and safely land a wingless vehicle. These lifting bodies were designed to validate the concept of flying a wingless vehicle back to Earth from space and landing it like an aircraft at a pre-determined site."
"These unique research vehicles, with their unconventional aerodynamic shapes, were the M2-F1, M2-F2, M2-F3, HL-10, X-24A, and the X-24B. The information the lifting body program generated contributed to the database that led to development of the space shuttle program."
"Aerodynamic lift - essential to flight in the atmosphere - was obtained from the shape of the vehicles rather than from wings as on a normal aircraft."
Past Projects: Lifting Bodies
https://www.nasa.gov/centers/dryden/history/pastprojects/Lifting/index.html
Lifting body
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lifting_body
My Comments
The Pentagon said in its recent April 27, 2020 press release:
"DoD is releasing the videos in order to clear up any misconceptions by the public on whether or not the footage that has been circulating was real, or whether or not there is more to the videos. The aerial phenomena observed in the videos remain characterized as "unidentified."
There are at least two interpretations of the above Pentagon statement:
1. The Pentagon attempted to find out what the Navy pilots were encountering and could not identify the phenomena.
2. The Pentagon knows what the Navy pilots viewed, for example a NASA lifting body, and chooses not to tell the public so the encounters remain unidentified for the public.
Although the US government likes to build turf by overclassifying data, in this case to quench the public's appetite for an explanation of the Navy pilots sightings, I will guess #1 above is correct. The Pentagon was not able to determine the nature of the flying aircraft.
Added May 8, 2020
The View Of NASA On The Department of Defense Release of Historical Navy Videos?
What is the position of NASA on the Navy pilots unidentified aerial objects videos? I searched for the keyword 'UFO' here: https://nasasearch.nasa.gov
The result is this: NASA does not track or research Unidentified Flying Objects (UFO's).
My Comments
Possible interpretations of the above statement:
NASA has the capability to identify all flying objects whether constructed by humans or ETs. There are no objects NASA cannot identify hence no UFOs.
UFOs are real but NASA does not track or research them.
NASA believes UFOs are definitely not real so there is no logical reason to track or research phenomena that do not exist.
NASA decided the study of UFOs is outside the mission of their space agency.
NASA decided the chance of detecting UFOs is so minimal there is no point investigating them.
NASA believes publishing scientific data concerning UFOs would endanger national security.
NASA decided the existence of UFOs might make human space travel via current technologies obsolete.
NASA decided if UFOs exist they should present themselves to humans in certain ways, for example planting an obelisk or playing a melody.
My Comment added May 19, 2020
Continuing a search as to why NASA is not interested in UFO research, I found some ideas on this issue at this link.
https://henry.pha.jhu.edu/aaaLibrary/ufosNASA.pdf
"UFOs and NASA, by Richard C. Henry"
"Department of Physics and Astronomy, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218"
"Journal of Scientific Exploration, Vol. 2, No. 2, pp. 93-142, 1988"
"Abstract-In 1977 President Carter's Science Advisor recommended that a small panel of inquiry be formed by NASA to see if there had been any new significant findings on UFOs since the US Air Force-sponsored investigation of UFOs ("Condon Report") a decade earlier."
"Five months later, NASA responded to that recommendation by proposing "to take no steps to establish a research activity in this area or to convene a symposium on the subject." This article offers a partial inside look at how that decision was made at NASA."
"The following reasons by Professor Henry seek to explain why NASA does not research UAPs:"
"a) Inhibition by Aliens: With perhaps a billion years of biotechnology behind them, they could, if so inclined, insert agents at will into our society. You might not even be aware that you are an alien agent, if you are."
"No conclusion on this possibility seems possible."
"b) Inhibition by the US Government:"
"Does the US government know all about UFOs and did a carefully placed person within NASA act to deflect/discourage any NASA investigation of UFOs?"
"c) Belief by NASA That UFOs Are Nonsense"
"d) Fear of Ridicule"
"e) More Important Things To Do"
My Comment added May 21, 2020
"Inhibition by Aliens" means aliens chilled in some manner UAP research endeavors of NASA.
Professor Henry's example is extremely unusual coming from someone who appears to be an established scientist:
["they could, if so inclined, insert agents at will into our society. You might not even be aware that you are an alien agent, if you are."]
Unidentified: Inside America's UFO Investigation
https://www.history.com/shows/unidentified-inside-americas-ufo-investigation
History channel videos presenting strong evidence on UAPs.
Added May 2020
Pentagon scientists are making talking plasma laser balls for use as non-lethal weapons
Talking lasers and endless flashbangs: Pentagon develops plasma tech
"Instead of beaming a flashing light or shouting over a loudspeaker to keep people away from sensitive areas, new technology being developed could allow troops to fire a laser that can form a “plasma ball” that talks to the potential intruders."
U.S. Navy Laser Creates Plasma ‘UFOs’, Forbes, May 11, 2020
"The Navy declined to discuss the project, but the work is described in a 2018 patent: “wherein a laser source is mounted on the back of the air vehicle, and wherein the laser source is configured to create a laser-induced plasma, and wherein the laser-induced plasma acts as a decoy for an incoming threat to the air vehicle.”
My Comments
Creating better decoys for heat seeking missiles is important but the same technology does not necessarily provide a decoy for radars and other sensors.
Also, the Navy patented the technology making it open to the public. Countermeasures can be built based on the Navy patent .
Adversaries won't respect the intellectual property and say: We won't use the innovation because it would interfere with US patent law. Perhaps the patent was sought as a blocker for civilian applications.
Why openly patent a technology that is used for an implementation that is top secret?
Does the Navy's Missile-Fooling Plasma Tech Explain Recent UFO Sightings?, Popular Mechanics
https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/research/a32452418/3d-plasma-object-ufos/
"Other things, however, seem to disqualify plasma filament images as the source of “UFOs”. The radar systems of Super Hornet strike fighters, E-2C Hawkeye airborne command and control aircraft, and the guided missile cruiser USS Princeton all reportedly picked up these objects. Plasma, unless it is associated with a physical object, is generally undetectable by radar. Furthermore, the pilots report seeing solid objects—not “ghost images” formed by beams of light."
"Another reason the plasma filament theory is unlikely: laser beams degrade with distance. This would necessitate a ship or plane generating an image to fly relatively close to the illusion in a very noticeable way. None of the pilots reported seeing any other aircraft in the vicinity, and in 2004 the USS Princeton detected one of the bizarre objects at 80,000 feet—far higher than even the U-2 spy plane flies."
"The technology behind the patent is an innovative way to defend aircraft from incoming missiles. As an explanation for the UFO sightings observed by the Navy over the past 16 years, it falls short."
"Something made tracks in the sky alongside Navy planes, but it wasn’t made of plasma."
Op-Ed: Why the Pentagon is interested in UFOs, NavyTimes, May 2019
https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2019/05/17/op-ed-why-the-pentagon-is-interested-in-ufos/
"U.S. Navy pilots and sailors won’t be considered crazy for reporting unidentified flying objects, under new rules meant to encourage them to keep track of what they see. Yet just a few years ago, the Pentagon reportedly shut down another official program that investigated UFO sightings. What has changed? Is the U.S. military finally coming around to the idea that alien spacecraft are visiting our planet?"
"The answer to that question is almost certainly no. Humans’ misinterpretation of observations of natural phenomena are as old as time and include examples such as manatees being seen as mermaids and driftwood in a Scottish loch being interpreted as a monster."
"In these types of cases, incorrect interpretations occur because people have incomplete information or misunderstand what they’re seeing."
My Comments
Incorrect interpretations occur if the aerial phenomenon are not understood by people and machines, or not in the known inventory of earthly objects. In my opinion, it is a mistake to place both not understood by people and machines and not in the known inventory of earthly objects into the same brew.
It's a large error to think improvements in the first part of the equation will obviate the second part. Not identified but no understanding of what they are seeing.
Having great trained pilots, sensors, and AIs can catalog UAPs not understand what they are.