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Added March 24, 2023
What is Oumuamua? An Interstellar Comet or a UFO Mothership?
Harvard Professor Avi Loeb responds with at least four articles a day after the publication of a Nature article (Acceleration of 1I/‘Oumuamua from radiolytically produced H2 in H2O ice, Nature, March 22, 2023 ). The Nature article suggests Oumuamua is a small interstellar comet that has no cometary tail and is probably not a UFO sent as a probe from an ET civilization.
These are Professor Avi Loeb's rebuttal posts:
1. Is `Oumuamua a Hydrogen-Water Iceberg?, Avi Loeb, Medium, March 22, 2023
https://avi-loeb.medium.com/is-oumuamua-a-hydrogen-water-iceberg-a5d815f61c86
'Since the observed acceleration declined smoothly in inverse proportion to distance squared from the Sun, I suggested a few months later in a paper with my former postdoc Shmuel Bialy that `Oumuamua was a thin membrane, pushed by sunlight. Since nature does not make light sails, I suggested in follow-up papers and my book Extraterrestrial that `Oumuamua was possibly produced by an extraterrestrial technological civilization. Most recently, I proposed in a newly published paper that this form of thin space trash could represent a piece from a broken Dyson sphere, which was damaged by asteroid impacts.'
2. `Oumuamua Was Not a Hydrogen-Water Iceberg, Avi Loeb, Medium, March 23, 2023
https://avi-loeb.medium.com/oumuamua-was-not-a-hydrogen-water-iceberg-1dd2f7a6107f
"In a new paper that I submitted this morning for publication in collaboration with Thiem Hoang, we show that the paper published today in Nature by Jennifer Bergner and Darryl Seligman miscalculated the surface temperature of `Oumuamua."
"Bergner and Seligman suggested that the peculiar acceleration of `Oumuamua can be explained if it was made of water ice which was partly dissociated into hydrogen by cosmic-rays in interstellar space."
3. Interstellar Objects from Broken Dyson Spheres, Avi Loeb, Medium, March 23, 2023
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/2515-5172/acc10d#rnaasacc10ds3
"Without extensive maintenance, Dyson spheres inevitably disintegrate by asteroid impacts over billions of years. The resulting fragments would appear as anomalous interstellar objects, potentially sharing the unusual shape and motion of 1I/'Oumuamua or the unusual material strength of the first two interstellar meteors, IM1 and IM2. If the Dyson sphere's tiles are light sails, the number of fragments could exceed that of interstellar asteroids."
4. Implications of evaporative cooling by H2 for 1I/‘Oumuamua, by Thiem Hoang, Abraham Loeb, March 23, 2023
https://lweb.cfa.harvard.edu/~loeb/Hoang_Loeb_23.pdf
"The first interstellar object observed in our solar system, 1I/‘Oumuamua, exhibited several peculiar properties, including extreme elongation and non-gravitational acceleration."
"The thermal speed of outgassing H2 is decreased by a factor of 3, which requires that all H2 from water ice is dissociated by CRs in the interstellar medium, making the model untenable as an explanation for the properties of 1I/‘Oumuamua."
My Comments
The series of rapid fire responses to the Bergner, et al Nature article essentially says the authors erred by "miscalculating the surface temperature of `Oumuamua".
That frees up Professor Loeb's musings on the possible extraterrestrial origins of Oumuamua.
Previously, Dr Loeb speculated Oumuamua was possibly built as a light sail enabling it to traverse interstellar distances using the force of the sun. In his article, Interstellar Objects from Broken Dyson Spheres, Professor Loeb speculates Oumuamua can be a lost tile from a disintegrating Dyson Sphere.
I find it a quaint idea an ET civilization capable of building a Dyson Sphere is shedding tiles that are light sails. If a Dyson Sphere implodes it would likely emit more ET artifacts than a scattering of tiling.
Why is Oumuamua so fascinating? I think it taps into the same excitement caused by UFOs and the possibility we are not alone in the universe.
Added March 23, 2023
Acceleration of 1I/‘Oumuamua from radiolytically produced H2 in H2O ice, Nature, March 22, 2023
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05687-w
"In 2017, 1I/‘Oumuamua was identified as the first known interstellar object in the Solar System1. Although typical cometary activity tracers were not detected, ‘Oumuamua showed a notable non-gravitational acceleration. So far, there has been no explanation that can reconcile these constraints8. Owing to energetic considerations, outgassing of hyper-volatile molecules is favoured over heavier volatiles such as H2O and CO2. However, there are theoretical and/or observational inconsistencies with existing models invoking the sublimation of pure H2 and CO2. Non-outgassing explanations require fine-tuned formation mechanisms and/or unrealistic progenitor production rates. Here we report that the acceleration of ‘Oumuamua is due to the release of entrapped molecular hydrogen that formed through energetic processing of an H2O-rich icy body. In this model, ‘Oumuamua began as an icy planetesimal that was irradiated at low temperatures by cosmic rays during its interstellar journey, and experienced warming during its passage through the Solar System."
Scientists think they know why interstellar object 'Oumuamua moved so strangely, NPR, March 22, 2023
"Over the last few years, some speculated that the object must be made of exotic materials, and the mystery even led to suggestions that 'Oumuamua could be some kind of alien probe or spaceship."
"Now, though, in the journal Nature, two researchers say the answer might be the release of hydrogen from trapped reserves inside water-rich ice."
My Comments
The researchers did not appear to scientifically measure Oumuamua's supposed water-rich ice or its supposed H2 outgassing.
Using state of the art HD measuring tools, not grainy optical , radar, spectrometers, or infrared sensors publish an actual image of Oumuamua's outgassing H2. No grainy images. The image can be from your lab or someone elses. Prove Oumuamua contained water.
While the researchers' model may pass an /Occams/ razor or /Parsimony/ test, comparing the simplicity of their model with other Oumuamua researchers' models, there is no linkage to the actual physical parameters being studied. That should place a severe limit on the confidence level of the findngs.
Did the researchers directly measure Oumuamua's water-rich ice? No. Did they directly measure Oumuamua's outgassing.of H2? No. Oumuamua is hurtling away from Earth and probably will never be seen again.
Lastly, where is the repeatable experiment performed on Oumuamua as required by the scientific method? There was no repeatable experiment performed on Oumauama.
Isn't a repeatable experiment the sine qua non of the scientific method?
Added July 17, 2021
Why Does Oumuamua Have a Rocky Exterior? by the SETI Nuggets Editor, July 17, 2021
This post is my theory about Oumuamua's rocky, surface texture.
If Oumuamua is an alien probe, why would the ET manufacturer give it a rocky surface? Is the ET's goal to camouflage Oumuamua's artificial nature so it will blend Oumuamua into the background of other asteroids, comets, and meteors as they cross the universe?
An alternative for the ET sender is to build an Oumuamua probe using metals or other substances that would have the characteristics of a light sail but would be easier for a distant ET civilization to find.
Conclusion
I do not think camouflaging Oumuamua with a rocky surface would benefit ETs who launched it into interstellar space. Perhaps Oumuamua's rocky surface is evidence Oumuamua is actually a natural object.
Was the Interstellar Object 'Oumuamua a Nitrogen Iceberg?
Scientific American, by Avi Loeb, March 19, 2021
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/was-the-interstellar-object-oumuamua-a-nitrogen-iceberg/
"If so, as has recently been suggested, there are likely many more of them moving between star systems."
Note: Professor Loeb is calling the Desch, et al theory a "suggestion" - nothing proven.
The debate continues: ‘Oumuamua could be remnant of Pluto-like planet, Ars Technica, March 18, 2021
"The mysterious pancake-shaped object dubbed 'Oumuamua (Hawaiian for "messenger from afar arriving first") generated considerable controversy earlier this year with the publication of Harvard astronomer Avi Loeb's bestselling new book arguing that it could be a piece of alien technology. Now two astrophysicists at Arizona State University (ASU) are counter-arguing that the secret to at least one aspect of the object's unusual properties lies in solid nitrogen ice. They described their findings in two new papers published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets."
JGR Planets, Alan Jackson, Steven Desch, March 16, 2021
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020JE006706
1I/‘Oumuamua as an N2 ice fragment of an exo‐Pluto surface: I. Size and Compositional Constraints
"The origin of the interstellar object 1I/‘Oumuamua has defied explanation. We perform calculations of the non‐gravitational acceleration that would be experienced by bodies composed of a range of different ices and demonstrate that a body composed of N2 ice would satisfy the available constraints on the non‐gravitational acceleration, size and albedo, and lack of detectable emission of CO or CO2 or dust."
1I/‘Oumuamua is very strange and it is hard to explain where it came from. We looked at several different ices and the push they would give ‘Oumuamua as they evaporated. We found that the best ice is nitrogen (N2), which would explain many of the things we know about it."
"We estimate ‘Oumuamua was ejected about 0.4‐0.5 Gyr ago from a young stellar system, possibly in the Perseus arm."
To Qualify as 'Scientific,' Evidence Has to Be Reproducible, Scientific American, Avi Loeb, March 1, 2021
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/to-qualify-as-scientific-evidence-has-to-be-reproducible/
"Professor Loeb: In various conversations with reporters leading to the publication of my new book, Extraterrestrial, I encountered difficulties getting across one essential aspect of the scientific process. Science relies on reproducibility of results. In order to believe a phenomenon, it must be possible to reproduce it as an outcome of similar circumstances."
My Comments
The principle of Parsimony or Occam's Razor will for now cancel the 'Alien' out of the equation.
Parsimony says an explanation that is simpler and uses fewer assumptions is preferable to a more complex explanation.
The Desch, et al theory theorizing Oumuamua as a Nitrogen iceberg is simpler than a theory positing Oumuamua as an ET artifact.
What happens if some time down the road, say, a few months or years from now ETs are found and proven to exist?
Will that retrospectively affect the trustworthiness of the Nitrogen iceberg theory making the ET artifact theory of Oumuamua more palatable?
Parsimony is in most scientist's tool box and comfort zone however we know, for example, parsimony does not apply to biology. Parsimony may remove the 'Alien' out of the equation now but not later if ETs are proven.
Also, the Desch explanation has a few hard to fathom parameters: "We estimate ‘Oumuamua was ejected about 0.4‐0.5 Gyr ago from a young stellar system, possibly in the Perseus arm."
Oumuamua has been traveling for a half-billion years ! and 6400 LYs ! from Earth (Perseus arm). I added those exclamation points.
Who can say with any confidence whatsoever how ‘Oumuamua may have been affected during that half-billion years and 6400 LYs journey? Maybe Oumuamua encountered areas with totally new kinds of physics (eg space wormholes).
Conclusion
In my opinion, there are many theories now about ‘Oumuamua's origin and behavior and there will be more.
Scientists determine the origin of extra-solar object Oumuamua, Phys.org, March 17, 2021
https://phys.org/news/2021-03-scientists-extra-solar-oumuamua.html
"In 2017, the first interstellar object from beyond our solar system was discovered via the Pan-STARRS astronomical observatory in Hawaii. It was named 'Oumuamua, meaning "scout" or "messenger" in Hawaiian. The object was like a comet, but with features that were just odd enough to defy classification."
"This research is exciting in that we've probably resolved the mystery of what 'Oumuamua is and we can reasonably identify it as a chunk of an 'exo-Pluto,' a Pluto-like planet in another solar system," Desch said. "Until now, we've had no way to know if other solar systems have Pluto-like planets, but now we have seen a chunk of one pass by Earth."
My Comments
It appears there are two theories that fit the Oumuamua observations: 1) ET origin or 2) Oumuamua is a shard of an exo-Pluto. The first theory is based on ETs, and the second theory is based on the likelihood of exo-Plutos.
In my opinion, there is not enough data from Oumuamua's traversal through our solar system to reach a high-confidence solution.
100-Million-Year-Old Seafloor Sediment Bacteria Have Been Resuscitated, Scientific American, by Jennifer Frazer, on March 4, 2021
"By the time the cores of sediment were raised to the surface, the tubes contained up to 100 million years of Earth history. What the team wanted to know was how long and in what state microbes trapped in this milieu could survive in an almost-completely raided oceanic refrigerator. They were in for a surprise."
"Their results, published in Nature Communications in July, revealed that the sediments contained bacterial cells, which they expected (not many, though: just 100 to 3,000 per cubic centimeter). But when given food, most of them quickly revived, which the scientists did not expect."
My Comments
In a previous post, I speculated about a possible ET motivation for their launching Oumuamua: "My own theory is Oumuamua may have a biological payload to seed life on distant planets, a theory called panspermia. The biological payload must be revivable after an untold number of years in transit."
"The current technological level of human space science is almost high enough for capture of objects such as Oumuamua. In the future, scientists may detect in deep space a similar object, navigate to it, then open it in a controlled environment and decide whether to use the interstellar biological matter if deemed beneficial."
The Sciam article referenced above "Sediment Bacteria Have Been Resuscitated" shows that bacterial cells are surprisingly hardy and can survive the required millions of years that may be necessary for an interstellar traversal that implements the panspermia theory.
To Qualify as 'Scientific,' Evidence Has to Be Reproducible, Scientific American, Avi Loeb, March 1, 2021
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/to-qualify-as-scientific-evidence-has-to-be-reproducible/
Professor Loeb: "In various conversations with reporters leading to the publication of my new book, Extraterrestrial, I encountered difficulties getting across one essential aspect of the scientific process. Science relies on reproducibility of results. In order to believe a phenomenon, it must be possible to reproduce it as an outcome of similar circumstances."
My Comments
Typically a discussion about the scientific method talks about the need for an experiment to be reproducible by independent teams of researchers. In Dr Loeb's article, he shifts the goal posts and without specifically mentioning 'reproducible experiments' defines reproducible, in perhaps a bespoke manner, as astronomers need to wait for another interstellar visitor and then duplicate the original findings.
Consider this scenario: A UFO lands in a meadow and the only person nearby is a professional nature photographer carrying five high-quality digital cameras. The door of the UFO opens, and 5 LGMs walk down a flight of stairs, and then begin to dance in a circle and sing festive songs. The photographer captures hundreds of high-quality images using all of her cameras. The LGMs re-enter their spacecraft, the door closes, and the UFO flies away never to return to Earth. The UFO was a singleton in our galaxy, with a one-off landing on Earth, and the UFO took off with the now boisterous LGMs shouting - hasta la vista baby!
There was no experiment performed and no possible reproducibility. The photographer shows the HD pictures of the saucer and LGMs to her friends and they say the pics are awesome. Other photographers and expert forensic scientists examine the digital images and agree the images have not been altered. In fact, they are spot on clear HD images of a UFO and LGMs dancing in a meadow.
Does the lack of an experiment and no reproducibility mean there is no high confidence possible for a concluson the images show a UFO and LGMs? Evidence has to be reproducible?
Tangential experiments could be performed testing the skills of the photographer and precision of the cameras instead of waiting for another UFO.
Dr Avi Loeb asserts the Oumuamua must bring interstellar friends for further testing by astronomers before good science can be deemed to have occurred. No reproducible factual situation means no good science.
In the specific instance of analyzing observed data from Oumuamua, I think better telescopes, sensors, computers, and algorithms would be more valuable than reproducibility of showing another interstellar object. In some areas of science, such as astronomy and archeology, reproducibility is not always possible.
The first scientist who looked up at the Moon through a telescope and saw craters was engaging in good science and would not have to demonstrate reproducibility to scientist peers by showing more moons orbiting Earth also with craters. We bring logic and the scientific method to the table and neither should dogmatically override the other.
Dr. Avi Loeb: Why Science Must Investigate Extraterrestrial Life And Objects, The Hill, Feb 13, 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-lekjTV48vI&ab_channel=TheHill
Harvard professor Avi Loeb, opines in an interview by the Hill that a tumbling interstellar cylinder is strong evidence of an alien presence.
My Comments
After a journey of untold LYs and unknown years in transit, more evidence is needed to establish the Oumuamua's provenance and the effects of perhaps millions of years of interstellar space travel. Whether Oumuamua is created by aliens is open for debate. I will guess there is a five percent chance Oumuamua is manufactured by ETs.
A conclusion of finding an ET artifact based on a spacefaring object's elongated cylindrical shape, and the less than certain possibility it is propelled as a light sail, an architecture not yet found in nature, is not enough to substantiate Avi Loeb's high confidence level. I won't reiterate Carl Sagan's binary yes it's alien, no it's not alien because I think it is more logical to use a continuous range of possibilities. I give the Oumuamua a 0.05 probability of having ET origins.
In addition to the Oumuamua's shape and conjectured space propulsion system, to build the argument Oumuamua is manufactured by ETs I think a theory on the object's mission is required. The name 'Oumuamua' means scout in Hawaiian. If Oumuamua is scouting on behalf of distant ETs how does it communicate with the culture from where it originated?
My own theory is Oumuamua may have a biological payload to seed life on distant planets, a theory called panspermia. The biological payload must be revivable after an untold number of years in transit.
The current technological level of human space science is almost high enough for capture of objects such as Oumuamua. In the future, scientists may detect in deep space a similar object, navigate to it, then open it in a controlled environment and decide whether to use the interstellar biological matter if deemed beneficial.
That is to analyze the molecular structure of the biological payload as an encyclopedia entry of alien DNA or other organic structure. An improvement on sending metal plated phonograph records as was done in the Voyager mission.
In other cases, if the Oumuamua-like object crashes into a barren planet with a favorable environment, that planet may be terraformed with the interstellar alien life.
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