Past Presentations 2023-2025

Abstract: I introduce a novel text-based measure of U.S. banking regulation intensity from historical newspapers spanning 1926-2023. The Bank Regulation Index tracks changes around crucial events like Glass-Steagall's introduction and repeal. Deregulation displays a boom-bust pattern: increased bank stock returns and lending in the short term, followed by higher crisis likelihood in longer horizons. Decomposing the BRI into topics shows that credit-specific regulation reliably predicts future banking distress beyond well-established leading indicators. This pattern, confirmed across five other anglophone countries, underscores how monitoring credit deregulation through text-based analysis offers policymakers an even earlier warning indicator for detecting financial instability before crises materialize.

Abstract: In 2003, Zhejiang Province, China, established a low-premium, low-benefit social security system for land-expropriated farmers. Starting in 2011, the province allowed eligible farmers to make additional contributions to upgrade to the high-premium, high-benefit Basic Pension Scheme for Employees (BPSE) and Basic Medical Insurance for Employees (BMIE). This policy transition offers a unique opportunity to study adverse selection in social insurance. Using micro-level social insurance data from C City spanning 2010 to 2020, we document evidence of adverse selection in both pension and medical insurance. We extend classic insurance models of information asymmetry (Akerlof, 1970) from a single-insurance context to a dual-insurance setting. Using an instrumental variable approach, we estimate demand, average cost, and marginal cost curves for BPSE and BMIE. These curves allow us to quantify the welfare loss from adverse selection and evaluate whether bundling pension and medical insurance can mitigate adverse selection through risk pooling - since healthier individuals prefer pension insurance and less healthy individuals prefer medical insurance. Finally, we develop a discrete choice model tailored to this two-insurance environment to validate our findings.

Abstract: This paper examines how the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) uses forward-looking language across different topics to communicate monetary policy. Using Structural Topic Modeling combined with tone and tense analysis through Large Language Models, we analyse FOMC minutes and estimate market reactions through high-frequency regressions. We develop a theoretical model of imperfect information that explains why markets react to communications beyond interest rate decisions, as news about how the central bank reacts to its own inflation expectations make private sector agents revise their interest rate expectations. Our empirical analysis shows that forward-looking discussions about Inflation increase treasury yields while decreasing equity prices, suggesting markets anticipate tighter policy when inflation is discussed with a future orientation. On the other hand, forward-looking discussions about Monetary Policy decrease treasury yields, indicating that explicit forward guidance signals more accommodative conditions. These findings highlight how the effectiveness of communication depends not only on what topics the committee discusses but also on how these discussions are framed in relation to the future.

Abstract: Do pro-competitive reforms increase the labour share of "superstar" firms? This study reveals it is not always – and it depends on the broader economic and institutional contexts. Focusing on Korean top chaebols in the aftermath of 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, this study provides a more nuanced understanding on the distributional impact of pro-competitive reforms in complex interaction with financialization, which recently became a dominant trend of corporate financial activities, and other policies implemented concurrently. The study reveals that in the long term post-treatment periods, these reforms led to a decline in labour share. However, it also finds that the reforms significantly mitigated the negative effect of financialization on labour share. These findings underscore the complex nature of pro-competitive reforms within the broader context of the Korean economy.

Abstract: Understanding how US monetary policy affects global economic conditions is of fundamental importance, as the literature shows that the effects are substantial. In this paper, I provide novel evidence on how income inequality shapes the heterogeneity of US monetary policy spillovers to GDP across foreign economies. I employ state-dependent local projections and exploit variation in disposable income inequality across a panel of 87 countries over the period 1966-2020. The empirical findings suggest that household heterogeneity significantly influences how foreign GDP responds to a US monetary policy tightening. GDP contracts two to three times more when inequality is above average. However, while higher inequality amplifies negative spillovers in advanced economies, it mitigates them in emerging markets. To rationalise this finding, I use a three-country open economy Two-Agent New Keynesian (TANK) model, which suggests that this divergence is driven by differences in participation in international financial markets. Households in emerging market economies face higher barriers to investing internationally, limiting their ability to re-balance portfolios towards higher-return bonds after the shock. This, in turn, reduces the macroeconomic effect of higher inequality on domestic conditions.

Abstract: Post-COVID work-from-home (WFH) policies have reduced geographic constraints, enabling workers to access remote job opportunities across regions. This shift has expanded local labor market boundaries and altered labor market concentration levels. In this study, I adjust a traditional concentration measurement to include remote job postings and analyze the impact of WFH on labor market concentration using the difference-in-differences (DID) approach. I find that excluding remote jobs significantly biases the concentration estimate. Additionally, I re-estimate the effect of concentration on wages using the two-stage least squares (2SLS) method, finding that concentration exerts downward pressure on wages for occupations with lower education requirements. In contrast, wages for occupations with higher education requirements increase with concentration. These results suggest supply-side shifts in the labor market.

Abstract: Effort is a critical input in the child’s learning production function, yet there is very little evidence on how to effectively improve student effort and exam performance. This paper investigates the role of monetary and non-monetary incentives in improving student effort and performance. Specifically, students in Bangladesh were randomly assigned to receive either cash, certificates of excellence, public recognition, or nothing for their performance on a short-timed test. The cash and certificates were further randomized to be offered as "gains" or "losses". I find that all types of rewards significantly improve student effort and performance, with monetary incentives framed as gains having the largest impact. Importantly, these effects persist even after the removal of incentives. This suggests that low-cost (USD 1.75) incentives could be used to motivate children in cost-constrained low- and middle-income countries.

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly reshaped labour markets globally, with significant gendered and intersectional disparities in employment outcomes. This study investigates the nuanced impacts of the pandemic on women’s labour market participation in the UK, with a particular focus on the "motherhood penalty" and the compounded vulnerabilities faced by women of ethnic minority and migrant backgrounds. Utilising data from the Understanding Society COVID-19 Study, this research analyses employment transitions during the initial stages of the pandemic (April-May 2020) to identify the interplay between gender, caregiving responsibilities, ethnic migrant status, and occupational characteristics. The findings reveal stark gendered inequalities: mothers with school-aged children experienced significantly higher unemployment rates compared to their male counterparts and women without caregiving responsibilities. These disparities were exacerbated for Black, Asian, and minority ethnic (BAME) migrant women, who faced compounded risks due to systemic barriers and limited childcare support. Additionally, employment in non-contact-intensive industries and cohabitation mitigated unemployment risks for some, while furlough schemes drove increased self-employment activities among women with caregiving burdens. This paper contributes to the literature by adopting an intersectional framework to unravel the complex dynamics of gender, ethnicity, and caregiving in shaping employment vulnerabilities. The findings underscore the urgent need for inclusive labour policies that address structural inequities and provide targeted support to the most affected groups. By shedding light on the disproportionate impacts of the pandemic, this research provides a foundation for designing equitable recovery strategies and fostering resilience in the labour market.

*This session was cancelled due to unforseen circumstances.

Abstract: We examine the impact of the opening of refugee reception centers on natives' social media activity and voting behavior in the Netherlands during the large and unexpected refugee inflow of 2015-2016. Using over 100 million geocoded tweets and a difference-in-differences approach, we find a short-lived surge in refugee salience on social media, accompanied by a decline in expressed support for refugees and increased discussions about religious minorities, particularly Islam. Linking social media salience to voting behavior, we analyze detailed voting data and document a significant rise in anti-immigration voting near newly established reception centers. This effect diminishes over time and with distance from the centers. Furthermore, we show that areas with a strong initial salience response to refugees drive increased support for anti-immigration parties, while areas with high pre-existing refugee salience exhibit no such increase in anti-immigration votes.

Abstract: Taxation is a cornerstone of state capacity, yet Africa faces persistent challenges in strengthening tax capacity, especially under intensified climate shocks. Using tax noncompliance behavior as a proxy, this study offers the first investigation into how climate change affects tax capacity across the continent. Leveraging public opinion surveys and remote sensing data from 38 African countries between 2011 and 2018, we demonstrate that weather extremes significantly increase the probability of tax noncompliance, particularly among economically disadvantaged populations. Three mechanisms underpin this relationship: worsening food and fuel insecurity, deteriorating economic prospects, and growing dissatisfaction and distrust in state institutions. Furthermore, we provide back-of-the-envelope estimations of potential revenue losses associated with climate-induced noncompliance and explore the role of climate adaptation in mitigating these effects. Our results imply that climate change is a critical threat to state capacity in developing countries and suggest building climate-resilient infrastructure while addressing citizen responses in the era of climate change.

Abstract: This article uses historical data from French banks to document the sources of bank failures in France between 1918 and 1928. The analysis shows that failed banks faced a liquidity and not a solvency issue. Indeed, a high capital ratio has led to an illusory feeling of stability, encouraging banks to invest in risky activities. Suffering losses or unable to meet repayment requests, they were forced to default. Conversely, banks’ readily available liquidity is associated with a reduced probability of failure, highlighting its protective role against shocks and strengthening the argument of the liquidity shortage. These results specific to the 1920s can be explained by the context of monetary instability which favored speculation. However, the involvement of the banking sector in financing public debt has prevented most banks from falling into the trap of excessive risk-taking and illiquidity, thus avoiding a significant increase in banking failures.

*This session was cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances.

Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the effect of peer gender composition for students aged 9-10 years in India using data from Young Lives study, on different cognitive abilities of girls and boys. We exploit the de facto random assignment of students across classes, conditional on lagged ability and school fixed effects. We find that an increase in the proportion of female students in the classroom causes females math abilities to improve, while it causes boys’ English abilities to improve. When we exclude single-sex schools from the sample, we find that girls also experience a positive peer gender effect in English abilities. We find that our results are driven by public-school going students, who study in schools that do not offer instruction in English medium and schools that do not provide basic amenities like gender segregated toilets for girls. Finally, we consider various channels through which peer gender effects cause improvement and heterogeneity in improvement in cognitive abilities, by gender.

Abstract: This paper proposes a method for conducting inference on finite-dimensional parameters in models defined by a finite number of conditional moment restrictions (CMRs). CMRs are allowed to depend on non-parametric components, which might be flexibly modeled using Machine Learning tools, and non-linearly on finite-dimensional parameters. Inference is based on constructing locally robust/orthogonal/debiased moments, in a data-driven our automatic way, extending these to accommodate CMRs. The key step in this construction is the estimation of Orthogonal Instrumental Variables (OR-IVs)—"residualized" functions of the conditioning variables, which are then combined to obtain a debiased moment. Our strategy exploits the CMRs implied by the model in a general way and can thus be applied to a wide range of settings, where the construction of orthogonal moments has remained unexplored, including highly non-linear and complex settings with CMRs, prominent in economics. We introduce a GMM estimator of finite-dimensional parameters in a two-step framework. We derive theoretical guarantees for our construction of orthogonal moments and show √n-consistency and asymptotic normality of the introduced estimator. Our Monte Carlo experiments and an empirical application on estimating firm-level production functions and productivity measures highlight the importance of relying on inference methods like the one proposed.

Abstract: I develop a novel measure of carbon sensitivity in lending to assess reductions in portfolio exposure to brown assets. Using syndicated loan data, I show that countries with greater resistance to brown lending, proxied by economic development, experience faster shifts in the sectoral composition of loan portfolios. The decarbonization is driven primarily by domestic credit reallocation. I find consistent evidence of risk transfers to less regulated lenders and foreign countries, indicating arbitrage and incomplete regulations. Furthermore, lenders’ climate risk-taking and transfer behaviors vary sharply by syndicate role, loan type, and specialization. The existence of international trade in brown loans has important implications for supervisory evaluation. Using the European Central Bank’s climate guide, I show that accounting for regulatory leakage reveals effects contrary to common wisdom.

*This session was part of the Job Market Seminar Series.

Abstract: Conventional empirical models occasionally incorporate sentiment to explain business cycle movements but rarely distinguish consumer optimism or pessimism from overall sentiment level. In this paper, I decompose consumer sentiment into trends and cycles using five filtering methods, with the cycles representing consumer over-optimism or pessimism. To mitigate discrepancies arising from specific statistical methods, I construct an average cycle based on a suite of five distinct commonly used measures. Using the average cyclical sentiment, I analyze the impact of sentiment on inflation expectations and macroeconomic variables. When using monthly U.S. data from 1978 to 2023, I find that cyclical sentiment significantly impacts inflation expectations, unemployment, and industrial production. However, the responses of core CPI inflation and CPI inflation to cyclical sentiment are ambiguous. I also incorporate several additional variables related to personal income, consumption, financial markets, and the labor market to examine their responses to cyclical sentiment. All these variables also exhibit short-lived but significant responses to cyclical sentiment movements.

*This session was part of the Job Market Seminar Series.

Abstract: This paper introduces a time-series methodology to quantify heterogeneity in the dynamics of the unconditional temperature distribution and its association with climate drivers. By recognizing that temperature unconditional quantiles represent temperatures at different locations—or seasons—, I establish an equivalence between a structural One-Dimensional Energy Balance Model (1D-EBM) and a statistical reduced-form Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for a range of distributional characteristics of temperature—mean and quantiles—and total radiative forcing, including radiative forcing from anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs). The VECM is estimated employing time-series methods agnostic about the type of trends (stochastic or deterministic) in climate data, and is utilized to produce the following outcomes of practical interest for economic analyses: i) estimation of long-run responses of temperature distribution to changes in GHGs, ii) long-term temperature density forecasts, iii) conditional projections of temperature distribution under different scenarios of future GHGs emissions, iv) extraction of the common-trending component behind the existing warming trend, and v) identification of distributional climate shocks and impulse-response analysis. An empirical study using station-level temperature records (1880–2021) reveals strong climate heterogeneity at global, hemispheric, and continental (Europe) scales, with important potential implications for damage analysis and integrated assessment modeling. A deeper understanding of global warming dynamics is crucial for informing more efficient adaptation and mitigation policies.

*This session was part of the Job Market Seminar Series.

Abstract: This paper investigates the welfare effects of Nano, Micro, Macro, and Mega influencers in Instagram marketing, using data from a digital-marketing platform in Iran. I develop a matching model to estimate brand preferences for influencer characteristics such as followers, engagement metrics, and media category, while accounting for brand decisions like campaign goals. Through counterfactual analysis, I assess how welfare varies across different influencer sizes based on these preference estimations.

*This session was part of the Job Market Seminar Series.

Abstract: Organisational units such as banks, criminal networks, or firms face a dilemma: while increased connectivity can increase their total payoffs, but so heightens exposure to external disruptions (e.g., shocks or infiltration), potentially dismantling their structure. In this paper, we examine how these disruptions influence network structures. We model this as a network design problem, building on the formulation of Ballester et al. (2006), and solve for an efficient network in the presence of external disruptions. The efficient network depends on the probability that an individual node becomes disrupted through direct and indirect connections. If the probability of disruption is the same through both direct and indirect connections, the efficient network is designed of maximally connected subgraphs—i.e., cliques. However, if the probability of disruption is higher through direct connections than through indirect ones, the resulting efficient network may consist of non-maximally connected subgraphs. The efficient network may consist of either symmetric or asymmetric cliques, depending on the disruption probability. Under certain parameter values, the efficient network consists of only symmetric cliques.

Abstract: This paper employs a proxy structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to examine the Federal Reserve's response to global supply chain shocks and their aggregate propagation under two counterfactual policy rules. Historically, the Fed has overlooked initial price surges, presumably favouring output, before adjusting its policy in response to persistent inflation. Stabilising inflation would entail an initial tightening and a mild recession, but ultimately more stable inflation expectations. Conversely, minimising a dual-mandate loss function—whether through inflation targeting (IT) or average inflation targeting (AIT)—calls for a more accommodative initial policy followed by greater subsequent tightening compared to the actual policy rule. The AIT policy rule, prioritising output and tolerating higher inflation more than the IT policy rule, would require a looser policy stance. However, prices being more sensitive than output to GSC disruptions eventually led to a much more contractionary policy under the AIT policy rule, worsening the inflation-output trade-off.

Abstract: We study the impact of emotional responses to professional soccer match outcomes on transactions and prices in the commercial sex market. Our findings indicate that football matches lead to an increase in sex work activity, while prices and durations decrease. We decompose this effect into two components: the pure game effect and the emotional channel, observing substantial heterogeneity in magnitude and significance depending on the different emotions of home and away fans.

Abstract: This paper explores how differences in job search behavior and preferences contribute to the gender wage gap. Using data from the Job Search Supplement of the Survey of Consumer Expectations, I find that women are more likely to search for jobs and do so more intensively than men. Despite differential search inputs, men and women receive a similar number of job offers, implying a lower job offer yield for women. Women’s best job offer has lower wages and hours, and fewer fringe benefits. Women are more sensitive to nonwage features of a job, such as commute time, hours worked, and location of a job. Lastly, women are more likely to search only for part-time work and have not worked in recent years. Building on these findings, I develop an on-the-job search model with endogenous search effort. I allow jobs to differ in their wage and amenity value. I incorporate the incidence of children and parental leave into the model, as the empirical facts show this is an important mechanism accounting for differences in search behavior, preferences, and labor force attachment by gender. Through the lens of the model I find that gender differences in amenity valuation can explain close to 20% of the overall gender wage gap.

Abstract: Conflicts persist widely with devastating consequences, underscoring the imperative of peacekeeping and peacebuilding efforts. International speeches play a pivotal role in peacebuilding by fostering awareness, facilitating dialogue and comprehension, urging action, and cultivating a climate of peace through an emphasis on dialogue, compromise, and reconciliation. This paper delves into the impact of the Pope’s speeches on African conflicts since 1997, examining the extent to which Vatican addresses explicitly mentioning conflict situations in a given country can influence the dynamics of violence. Specifically, utilizing data on conflict events across all African countries from 1997 to 2021, at a spatial resolution of 0.5*0.5 latitude and longitude, we discern, on average, a decrease in violence in the weeks following the Pope’s speeches. We observe notable disparities across pontiffs, with John Paul II yielding a significantly greater effect on violence reduction compared to Pope Francis or Pope Benedict XVI. Furthermore, we ascertain that the local relay of the Pope’s message—such as bishops—impacts the transmission of peace initiatives. Moreover, areas with a diversity of religious structures display greater receptiveness to the Pope’s peace message. While the Pope’s speeches demonstrate a capacity to mitigate the frequency and intensity of conflicts, the spatial variations we uncover underscore the nuanced reception of peace messages within diverse communities.

Abstract: This study examines the impact of green bond issuance on corporate carbon emissions, with particular attention to how linguistic factors, specifically Future Time Reference (FTR) in language, moderate this relationship. We utilize a unique dataset comprising 178 corporate green bonds and 4,538 conventional bonds, totalling 30,000 issuance-year observations from 2002 to 2022. Using a staggered Difference-in-Differences approach, we analyze firms across countries with varying linguistic structures. The findings reveal that green bond issuance is generally associated with a reduction in direct greenhouse gas emissions. However, this effect is more pronounced among firms in countries with weak FTR languages, where speakers are inclined to perceive future events as more immediate, potentially driving greater environmental commitment. In contrast, firms in strong FTR environments exhibit less pronounced emission reductions, potentially due to a deferred perception of environmental responsibility. The results underscore the role of cultural and linguistic context in shaping firms' environmental behaviour post-green bond issuance. This chapter contributes to sustainable finance literature by highlighting the significance of linguistic influence on the environmental efficacy of green financial instruments.

Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between the mode of delivery (natural delivery or caesarean delivery) and symptoms of respiratory illness in Pakistani children, using data from the Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (DHS).  With acute respiratory infections (ARIs) posing a significant threat to childhood morbidity and mortality in Pakistan, understanding the factors that contribute to this, including birth delivery method is important to families and policymakers. We present initial results from OLS regression models to study the relationship between caesarean delivery and symptoms of respiratory illness in early childhood. We study the heterogeneity effects of the gender of the child, as female children are more resilient to respiratory infections. Our results show that male children are 5% more likely to suffer from respiratory illness if they are born via caesarean, whereas the effect for female children is insignificant. To address endogeneity concerns, we propose using the mode of delivery of the older sibling of the study child as an instrumental variable for the study child’s mode of delivery. By examining the link between delivery mode and respiratory health outcomes, this study contributes to the global understanding of caesarean section practices and informs targeted interventions to support decisions regarding maternal and child health in a lower middle-income country.

Abstract: This study evaluates the effects of specialized educational programs for linguistic minorities, focusing on bilingual indigenous schools in Mexico, on academic performance and on bullying. These schools aim to provide instruction in native languages and create safe spaces for minorities who often face discrimination; however, they encounter significant implementation challenges. I develop and estimate a structural model of parents choosing primary schools for their children that incorporates bullying as a key social interaction depending on the school ethnic composition and heterogeneous human capital formation technologies. I find that bullying consistently negatively impacts academic performance (by 0.15-0.38 standard deviations) and that increasing the proportion of indigenous students in a school from 0% to 100% reduces bullying for indigenous students by 7.3 percentage points, without affecting non-indigenous students. However, I find that teachers in indigenous schools are on average less effective than teachers in regular schools in promoting academic achievement. Their effectiveness is mediated by their indigenous language proficiency. Parental school choice is influenced both by academic aspirations and bullying concerns. I use the estimated model to evaluate counterfactual policies. Enhancing resources in indigenous schools improves academic scores and reduces bullying by encouraging student shifts from regular to indigenous schools. Policies targeting ethnic-based bullying improve academic performance directly and indirectly by fostering a conducive learning environment and encouraging students to choose more productive regular schools. Eliminating indigenous schools enhances academic achievement and reduces bullying for indigenous students attending regular schools, thanks to the influx of indigenous peers. Therefore, indigenous schools need additional resources to address minorities' education needs; otherwise, they risk being counterproductive.

Abstract: I study the extent and evolution of labor market power in the US food retailing sector by estimating the wedge between marginal productivity and wage. Using data on a near universe of American food retailers and market-level worker information for the period 2004-2022, I first examine effects of minimum wages on employment in food retailing labor markets. To understand the mechanisms behind the effects, I build a structural model based on the production function approach and estimate labor markdowns. I then examine how these markdown estimates vary across years and along worker, firm, and market characteristics.

Abstract: Does male scarcity empower women, or, conversely, push them to become more dependent and conform to traditional gender roles? Drawing on the episode of extreme male scarcity caused by 27 million Soviet casualties during WWII, I find that male scarcity decreases women's bargaining power in the marriage market, leading to a long-term rise in conservative gender attitudes and willingness to create a family. Based on exogenous local within-region variation in the military deaths, I identify a causal effect of a 10 percentage-point increase in female share leading to a 3.3 percentage-point increase in the share of married females today. Using survey data, I document that in historically more male-scarce localities modern-day respondents are 11 percentage points more likely to find marriage important and 20 to 40 percentage points more likely to believe in conservative gender roles in the family. To reconcile these results with the literature, I show that the effect of sex ratio skewness is more pronounced in districts where females were already a part of the labor force before the war. Overall, I show how male scarcity, when female labor force participation is high to start with, leads to more conservative and family-oriented societal norms.

Abstract: Nigeria has experienced over 18,000 crude oil spills in its 50-year history of oil production and supply. These spills are associated with land, surface water, and groundwater pollution. By employing a staggered difference-in-differences framework, I study adaptation measures adopted by households in the face of these land pollution shocks. I find that exposure to crude oil spill shocks increases the likelihood of out-migration. A sub-group analysis helps me investigate the causal mechanism driving my results. I find that oil spills are linked to migration only for those who resided in households that practiced agriculture at baseline. They report fewer hours worked in cultivation after exposure to oil spills. Weak evidence suggests that rural household members migrate to urban areas as a consequence of oil spill exposures, indicating a substitution away from their farms for better work or education opportunities elsewhere. Reported short-term migration responses to oil spill exposure are often marriage-related, while longer-term migrations are reportedly driven by work and education pursuits, predominantly among female members. Thus, persistent exposure to land pollution shocks can prompt agriculture-dependent households to resort to out-migration as a coping strategy.

Abstract: According to conflicts of interest (COI) policies adopted by various publishers, research-active editors face a potential COI when handling submissions from their colleagues or recent collaborators. However, the interplay between such policies and the way editors handle COIs is unknown to date. Here, we analyze half a million papers from six publishers who specify the handling editor of each paper. We find numerous papers handled by editors who either share the same affiliation or have collaborated recently with the authors. Analysis of such papers reveals that they are accepted faster only when the prior editor-author collaboration happens in relatively small teams. Leveraging three quasi-experiments, we find that COI policies could have an effect on regulating this phenomenon. Finally, we show that completely avoiding COIs may compromise the suitability of the handling editors, highlighting a suitability-integrity trade-off when managing editorial COIs. These findings highlight the need to revisit current policies, and provide quantitative evidence that can guide policy reform. 

Abstract: This paper studies the impact of different types of Italian Asylum Seeker Reception Centres (ASRC) on Italian municipalities’ finances. We differentiate between centres that provide integration courses and job formation (SAI) and emergency centres whose main purpose is to give basic needs to the refugees (CAS). We find significant differences between the two types of centres on local public spending. SAI projects substantially increase municipalities’ population, while CAS do not show any relevant change. We also find significant differences between the two types of centres on populations and local public spending. On public spending, SAI centres increase total current spending, mostly for items related to the centre, i.e. social, cultural, and on tourism. Results are robust even when taking government funding out, suggesting important spillovers on municipalities’ budgets. On the other hand, CAS centres decrease total current spending, mostly for goods and services. These results underline the importance that the design of refugee centres might have on local communities and public spending. 

Abstract: Have we worked longer or shorter hours after the common adoption of technological improvements across countries? To answer this question, this study incorporates import in constructing World Total Factor Productivity (WTFP) as a global common stock of knowledge and examines the effects of WTFP shocks on total hours worked. Compared to previous studies that focused on Country-Level TFP (CLTFP) or labor productivity that often overlook the importance of trade in diffusion and propagation of technology shocks, this research addresses this gap by highlighting the import share as a measure of diffusion reflecting productivity changes from technology shocks. 

Following Gali's (1999), I identify, extract, and apply permanent WTFP shockd within a local projection model to analyze their impact on hours worked across 18 OECD countries from 1971 to 2015. Primary results indicate that total hours worked increase in response to WTFP shocks across selected OECD countries. Furthermore, I conduct a mechanism inspection to examine how GDP growth, financial openness, and labour income share growth contribute to the increase of total hours worked following WTFP shocks. While GDP have contributed an increase in total hours worked across countries, financial openness and the aggregate labor income share contribute to a decline in total hours worked, with more decline in the traded sector compared to the non-traded sector. Intuitively, these validate critical role of traded sector as a main channel for knowledge diffusion following WTFP shocks from foreign to domestic economies and confirm the labour reallocation across sectors within 18 OECD economies. 

Abstract: This paper presents empirical evidence demonstrating that individuals exposed to multiple macroeconomic shocks, accounting for the years of their countries' participation in the EU, exhibit diminished trust in European institutions, supporting attitudes opposing a further European Unification. Furthermore, individuals who have experienced such macroeconomic shocks are more likely to vote in favor of leaving the EU and hold negative attitudes towards immigrants from European countries. Notably, these findings are observed specifically for non-symmetric shocks, while the opposite pattern emerges for symmetric shocks. The analysis employs data from the European Social Survey (ESS) spanning from 2002 to 2019, encompassing multiple countries to construct a measure of differential individual exposure to macroeconomic shocks during that period. Overall, this research underscores the lasting impact of past asymmetric economic shocks on European identity and emphasizes the importance of inclusive policies by the EU in addressing asymmetric risks. 

Abstract: This paper evaluates the effect of imposing tuition fees in Sweden on the location decisions of international university students. Using a synthetic difference-in-differences model, I compare non-Swedish EEA students, who are not affected by the policy, to students from a set of developed countries who face this rise in tuition costs over a period of 17 years. I find an average decrease of 130 students per country of origin, which corresponds to approximately 89% of the average number of students from non-EEA developed countries studying in Sweden. The effect is stable over time,  additionally, I find weak evidence that fewer foreign students impact the decision of Swedish students to study abroad in the short run. 

Abstract: We investigate how air pollution impacts outdoor activity avoidance, leveraging changes in local wind direction in an instrumental variable setup for causal identification. Our findings reveal a significant reduction in time spent outdoors during polluted days, mainly driven by decreased engagement in employment-related activities at the intensive margin. This effect is more prominent among individuals engaged in self-employment and casual wage labor, implying substantial pecuniary costs. Our analysis suggests visually perceptible changes in air quality as a potential mechanism behind the effect, and our results remain robust under various sensitivity tests. Moreover, we find that reduced outdoor time due to air pollution can potentially promote a more equitable allocation of unpaid care responsibilities within households via increased male involvement.

Abstract: Equivalence testing methods can provide statistically significant evidence that relationships are practically equal to zero. I demonstrate their necessity in a systematic reproduction of estimates defending 135 null claims made in 81 articles from top economics journals. 37-63% of these estimates cannot be significantly bounded beneath benchmark effect sizes. Though prediction platform data reveals that researchers find these equivalence testing 'failure rates' to be unacceptable, researchers actually expect unacceptably high failure rates, accurately predicting that failure rates exceed acceptable thresholds by around 23 percentage points. To obtain failure rates that researchers deem acceptable, one must contend that over 75% of published effect sizes in economics are practically equivalent to zero. Because such a claim is ludicrous, Type II error rates are likely quite high throughout economics. This paper provides economists with empirical justification, guidelines, and commands in Stata and R for conducting credible equivalence testing in future research.

Abstract: In 2013, England and Wales implemented a comprehensive legal aid reform, removing publicly funded legal assistance for low-income households confronting social welfare issues. The reform acted as a large funding shock, resulting in uneven closure and congestion among legal assistance providers. This paper examines the far-reaching consequences of this reform on access to justice and socioeconomic outcomes for vulnerable populations, as well as mortality rates. Constructing panel data on the activity of legal assistance providers between 2011 and 2022, we adopt a difference-in-differences approach to assess the dynamic effects of the reform on eviction court cases, housing market tension indices and mortality rates. Our analysis leverages the exogenous spatial and temporal variation in access to legal assistance providers, considering changes in distance and congestion of the nearest provider. By adopting estimation procedures corrected for heterogeneity, we quantify the cumulative impact of reduced access to free, in-person legal assistance on outcomes with lasting socioeconomic implications. This study sheds light on an overlooked program targeting households at risk of homelessness and over-indebtedness, providing empirical insights essential for elucidating the unintended socioeconomic and public health consequences of legal reforms.

Abstract: This paper makes use of the rapid surge of short-term rentals in Portugal to estimate its impact on local businesses. We create a continuous treatment variable, which is a measure of new short-term rentals registries divided by number of dwellings, at a parish level, and we use firm-level data to examine the effect on the evolution of the percentual change between 2016-2019 of certain outcome variables. We document that exposure to short-term rentals increases the probability of closure, especially for low performance firms. We estimate sizable increases in sales and external expenses, for both resident and tourist-oriented companies, while uncovering significant increases in number of employees, wages and liquidity for tourist-oriented, validated through a set of robustness checks. Higher treatment exposure is also linked to increases in probability of an entry firm being tourist-oriented, potentially leading to changes in urban business geography, and having larger turnover than closing firms.

Abstract: We find evidence that patent grants influence the stock returns of firms that are connected through technological knowledge dependencies. Using the direction of patent citations between publicly listed companies, we construct a daily exposure of each firm to new patent grants to its knowledge upstream firms (neighborhood) weighted by how intensely they are cited by it. We find that a percent increase in the market value of patents granted to a firm’s neighborhood increases its ab- normal returns by about 0.5 basis points each day within three days of patent grant. These spillovers are about 20 percent in size relative to returns generated a firm’s own patents. Moreover, stock returns attributable a firm’s neighbors increase over the course the week of grant, whereas they fade out with respect to its own patent grants, suggesting a gradual diffusion of information in financial markets. We further show patents granted to product market rivals decrease, and patents granted to suppliers increase, stock returns of firms. However, accounting for them does not affect our estimates of financial spillovers attributable to techno- logical knowledge dependency. We test for robustness using alternative controls and measures of patenting, restricting analysis to firms operating across industries, using placebo weights for knowledge dependencies, and demonstrating that financial spillovers tend to be localized within a firm’s immediate connections.

Abstract: This paper investigates colorism, racial discrimination based on skin color, in men’s football. Firstly, using machine learning algorithms, we extract players’ skin tones from online headshots to examine their impact on fan-based ratings and valuations. We find evidence of a skin tone penalty, where darker-skinned players face lower fan-driven market values and ratings. Secondly, using algorithm-based ratings and employing a Difference-in-Discontinuities design with geolocated penalty kicks data, we show that lighter-skinned players enjoy a premium higher by 1.25 standard deviations than their darker-skinned peers, conditional on scoring a penalty. Additionally, we find evidence that non-native players with dark skin face a double penalty. Leveraging the COVID-19 pandemic as a natural experiment, we highlight the role of fans’ stadium attendance in algorithm-based results. The findings underscore direct skin tone discrimination in football and highlight fans’ role in perpetuating algorithmic bias.

Abstract: This paper investigates how changes in household wealth affect the likelihood of divorce among older adults aged 50 or above in the United States. Using panel data from the Health and Retirement Study from 1992 to 2018, I first establish a descriptive non-linear relationship between wealth and divorce probabilities. The likelihood is higher for lower levels of wealth, and monotonically declines, but only upto the median – beyond that it remains fairly flat. Extreme changes in wealth, both positive and negative are associated with higher probability of divorce, as compared to moderate changes. To estimate the causal effects, I use two separate plausibly exogenous shocks to wealth, one from the stock market and the other from the housing market. A $1,000 predicted increase in wealth coming from the stock market increases the likelihood of divorce by 26.2 percent, significant with a p-value of 0.06. A similar sized shock from the housing market increases the likelihood by 30 percent, significant at 1 percent. I find little evidence of any non-monotonic effect in a causal setting.

Abstract: This study explores the proliferation of electoral parties in democracies globally, using the Costa Rican context as a laboratory. It seeks to understand whether the transformed political landscape in Costa Rica since 2002, marked by a shift from a two-party to a multi-party system, can be attributed to the growing disparities in income and increasing exposure to globalization. This research contributes significantly to the existing literature on globalization and its impact on electoral outcomes, particularly within the context of a developing nation with a solid democratic tradition. It uniquely combines two sets of administrative data at the individual level: electoral registries and social security employer-employee records. The study reveals a positive correlation between income and voter turnout. The primary findings related to income shocks are stable to the inclusion of immigration data. Notably, the analysis demonstrates that immigration decreases voter turnout across most specifications. However, when applying an IV strategy at the individual level, the presence of more immigrant colleagues appears to positively influence the voting behaviour of local workers, suggesting a potential buffer effect. Furthermore, our analysis at the polling station level reveals that areas with positive income gains tend to exhibit more stable voting preferences and declining support for traditional parties. Moreover, exposure to immigration appears to foster electoral volatility and, paradoxically, greater support for traditional parties, possibly as a refuge for discontented voters amidst evolving political landscapes.

Abstract: This paper examines the welfare effects of work restrictions in disability benefit programs. Work restrictions can discincentivize people with high work capability from applying and therefore control fiscal costs. However, they also distort the labor supply of claimants. To credibly assess the overall effect on claims from removing work restrictions, I study a disability benefit program in the UK which does not feature work restrictions or means tests. Only around 3% of benefits payments are made to those in the top 20% of the household income distribution, while over 40% of payments are made to those in the bottom 20% of the household income distribution. Transitions onto benefits have small effects on the labor supply of beneficiaries. I simulate an ex ante welfare-neutral expansion of benefit generosity with corresponding tax increases and find that this policy generates positive net revenue for the government, suggesting welfare gains from increased generosity. I evaluate the effect of work restrictions by developing a structural life cycle model with endogenous benefit application, work, and asset accumulation decisions. I estimate this model using UK data and use it quantify the effect of benefit generosity and introduction of work restrictions on benefit claims, labor supply, and welfare. I find that a revenue neutral doubling of benefit generosity in my model leads to a 24% increase in the benefit take up rate, while overall welfare is improved by the equivalent of 1.9% to 2.2% of lifetime consumption, depending on educational attainment. Introduction of work restrictions in my model reduces overall welfare by 1.6% to 1.3% of lifetime consumption, depending on educational attainment. Since most disability benefit programs include some form of work restriction, my results have important implications for the design and reform of public disability insurance programs.

Abstract: Recent surveys indicate that households correlate higher expected inflation with lower output growth, aligning with a supply-side view. In contrast, firms and experts often associate higher expected inflation with stronger economic fundamentals and anticipate higher output growth, reflecting a demand-side view. This paper attributes the divergent views to natural asymmetry in agents' attention choices. Given their respective objectives, households find it optimal to allocate more attention to supply shocks which are more important for them, while firms optimally allocate more attention to demand shocks.

I develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with rational inattentive households and firms and compare its prediction to survey evidence. I then shed light on the potential impact on business cycle fluctuations, and policy predictions beyond standard models.

Abstract: How does going public by high-technology firms affect local neighborhoods? The paper finds that those IPOs result in economic growth, but greater inequality and gentrification among incumbent residents in both short and long run. I document positive wage effect on both high-skilled and low-skilled workers but displacement effect on low-skilled workers only. With rising housing price and rent, there is also a growing number of homeless people in the local neighbourhoods. Finally, I construct a spatial equilibrium model to quantify the change in workers’ utility and estimate that an average IPO can increase the productivity of surrounding high-skilled workers by 20%.

Abstract: This paper investigates how trade facilitation affects firms asymmetrically. We explore China's ``Single Window'' reform, which streamlined administrative procedures in international trade, to elucidate within-country distributional effects. Leveraging the by-province roll-out of the reform, we find decreasing per-shipment fixed costs and increasing export value at the aggregate level due to quantity growth. The falling trade costs encourage entry of new firms, intensify competition, thus lead to null, if any negative, impacts on top firms. The consequent declining export prices signify welfare gains to international buyers. Our findings provide vital empirical insights for the real impacts of the trade facilitation reform.

Abstract: Italy has one of the slowest civil judicial systems in Europe. At the same time, there exists anecdotal evidence suggesting that informal contract enforcement can be provided by organized crime. I present a simple theoretical framework to explain why citizens may turn to the Mafia for contract enforcement when the State is increasingly unable to fulfill this service. I empirically test the main model prediction using a novel database of Mafia-controlled areas across Italy between 2014 and 2019. I obtain confidential yearly data from the Superior Council of the Judiciary about the judge’s retirement, which I use as a source of exogenous variation in the State’s enforcement capacity. Results indicate that the Mafia expands its control over the territory when the State weakens its contract enforcement capacity.

Abstract: Does the Internet bring closer or further segregate immigrants and locals? This paper documents the effects of origin-country Internet expansion and new ICTs on immigrants' social integration at destination. In a model of migration and networking, individuals choose where to live, and how to allocate time between destination- and origin-country ties. An increase in origin-country connectivity is predicted to decrease immigrants' integration at destination. Using language proficiency and naturalization data from the ACS, I find that growing Internet access at the origins slows down the pace of immigrants' integration. Importantly, the effect is driven by lower-skilled immigrants, suggesting that the Internet can exacerbate the gaps between low- and high-skill immigrants. To establish the mechanisms of how new ICTs transform networking behavior of immigrants I rely on the American Time Use Survey, as well as data on international phone calls. This paper adds to our understanding of how new ICTs transform the links between immigration, diversity, and social cohesion.

Abstract: The study explores the intersection of agricultural volatility, financial access, and child health outcomes in rural India. It highlights how income fluctuations in agricultural communities, primarily due to crop price variations, adversely impact household nutrition and infant mortality. The research utilizes data from the National Family and Health Surveys of India and spatially merged agricultural price information to examine these effects. Particularly, it focuses on in utero exposure to agricultural price shocks and their implications for child health, including infant mortality and anthropometric measures. The study also investigates the mitigating role of rural financial development, specifically the proximity and availability of banking services, in cushioning these adverse effects. It employs data on local bank branch distribution and examines the relationship between financial access and health outcomes post-agricultural shocks. The findings indicate that improved financial infrastructure in rural areas can significantly offset the negative health impacts of agricultural income volatilities. This research contributes to the understanding of economic conditions, transitory income shocks, and their effects on child health in developing countries, while also highlighting the potential of financial development in enhancing rural welfare.

Abstract: This study examines the allocative efficiency of agricultural input subsidies using a two-stage experiment in Bangladesh. I randomize the price subsidy, ranging from full to zero subsidies, for a new wheat seed variety in stage one. In stage two, I randomize free distribution across the self-selected sample of non-buyers from stage one. This design allows me to compare realized returns across the entire population with the returns among the sample choosing not to buy in stage one. I find that the stage-two free distribution increases adoption by an amount almost equal to the effect from stage one. Thus, higher prices screen out farmers who are willing to plant the new seed. In addition, I find no evidence that choosing not to buy in stage one is associated with having lower returns from adoption. These results suggest that increasing price subsidies for agricultural inputs do not distort allocation to lower return farmers.

Abstract: Individuals form economic expectations for a given region by extrapolating from the economic outcomes of another geographic area, a phenomenon we term 'spatial extrapolation.' We exploit the scenario when Out-of-town (OOT) buyers purchase property in places different from their previous residences. Analyzing roughly 3 million U.S. housing transactions by OOT homebuyers from 2002 to 2017, we find that a 50% increase in the past five-year hometown house prices induces OOT buyers to pay an additional 2% for new OOT properties. We implement two identification strategies to rule out the wealth effect and other channels. First, we compare the purchase price differences among renters, migrants, and second-home (SH) buyers. Second, we construct a belief sensitivity instrumental variable (IV) by combining house price belief and housing transaction data. The IV provides exogenous variation in extrapolative house price belief across locations that is orthogonal to wealth changes.  Our research pioneers the exploration of spatial extrapolation and sheds light on the intricate interplay between homebuyer beliefs and behaviors, emphasizing the profound influence of extrapolative belief on local housing market dynamics.

Abstract: There is a longstanding debate in public finance about the effect of the size of the political class on the size of the government. However, there is no consensus on the direction of this relationship. This paper reconciles this contrast by considering a new factor: the role that politicians play in the government. Using unique administrative data from Italian municipalities and an instrumental variable strategy, I find that the role of local politicians matters: more executive politicians increase expenditure, through higher investments financed via capital transfers; more councilors, instead, curb them. I explain these findings with specialization within a larger executive and political fragmentation within a larger council. I find that voters positively react to the additional spending of a larger executive by favoring upward career movements for the mayor and re-appointment of executive board members. The councilors' careers, instead, do not benefit from their spending behavior.

Abstract: Does the composition of Research and Development (R&D), in particular its split between public and private funding, matter for aggregate productivity growth? Using a unique firm-level dataset with patent and balance-sheet information covering 70 years (1950-2020), I estimate the impact of the decline in public R&D in the U.S. on long-run TFP growth. I first document three new facts about publicly funded innovations: they are (i) more reliant on science, (ii) more likely to open new technological fields, and (iii) more likely to generate spillovers, especially toward smaller firms. In other words, public R&D tends to be more of a public good for firms. I then use two instrumental variable strategies-a historical shift-share IV and a patent examiner leniency instrument-to estimate the impact of the decline in public R&D on the productivity of firms through spillovers. I find that a 1% decline in public R&D spillovers causes a 0.17% decline in productivity growth. This impact is three times as big as that of spillovers from private R&D and persists at the sector level. Moreover, smaller firms benefit more from public R&D spillovers than large firms. A calibrated model of growth with heterogeneous firms suggests that the decline in public R&D can explain around a third of the decline in TFP growth in the U.S. from 1950 to 2018, and half of the rise in inequality between firms.

Abstract: Do supply-side interventions influence human behaviors? This paper examines the effect of India's Accredited Social Health Activists (ASHAs) on long-term reproductive health. I use large-scale survey and administrative data and exploit the variation in the number of ASHAs along with variations in the birth year, employing a difference-in-differences design. I find that the policy made women better off in terms of utilizing various reproductive healthcare services, such as antenatal care and institutional deliveries, along with an increase in contraceptive use in the long term. I find that an additional ASHA per 1,000 population is associated with a 2.14 to 5.2 percent increase in the utilization of reproductive health. This result is robust to an alternative specification with district-level ASHA utilization as the treatment. Results are heterogeneous across groups, with contraceptive use being driven by women who are richer, literate, and have less than three children during their peak reproductive ages. I find that ASHAs are associated with higher contraceptive use only in districts where utilizing the ASHA service is below the sample median, suggesting that performance incentives for the provision of family planning methods should be revised to meet the aim of lower fertility.

Abstract: Can forced sterilization programs targeting men lead to male-perpetrated violence? This paper investigates the impact of a government-mandated male sterilization program introduced in India on the rise of violence. Launched in April 1976, the program predominantly targeted men and saw heterogeneous implementation across India over 10 months. Using various household surveys and newly digitized historical data sources, we study whether the program triggered unintended effects on violence, measured by crime rates. Using a difference-in-differences strategy by exploiting geographical variation in coercion intensity, we find that an increase in exposure to the program led to an increase in violent crime rates of 7% on average, which persisted over time. Violent crimes against women primarily drive the increase in crime rates, as rapes are increasing by 22% on average. We find that the program was ineffective in reducing fertility, so we hypothesize that a forced sterilization program targeting men may increase violence against women through one main channel: the procedure inducing trauma, impacting perceptions of masculinity. In line with this channel, we see that districts with high coercion intensity correlate with more harmful gender norms: higher levels and acceptance of Intimate Partner Violence, lower bargaining power of women and lower contraception adoption.

Abstract: The paper studies how the degree of firms' disclosed political risk varies with the intensity of lobbying activities. Beyond the traditional rent-seeking mechanism, lobbying can also overcome information asymmetry between firms and policymakers, enabling firms to mitigate their political risk exposure. The paper uses the information on lobbying meetings of UK-based publicly listed firms and their disclosed political risk through quarterly conference call reports and shows that lobbying reduces firm-level political risk. However, the effectiveness of lobbying as a risk-mitigating tool depends on the political risk and lobbying type. The largest effect of lobbying on political risk reduction is documented in the case of risk coming from institutions and political processes, tax policy, or environmental policy. The least effect is observed on trade policy uncertainty. The results also show that group lobbying is relatively more effective than individual lobbying as it is associated with better information transfers from policymakers and other meeting participants. Importantly, lobbying at the highest policy level does not contribute much to political risk reduction. However, targeting lobbying activities to specific government positions matters the most, such as the Economic Secretary and Parliamentary under-secretary. Lastly, the value of lobbying is larger during periods of high economic policy uncertainty when the demand for policy information is high.

Abstract: I study how the introduction of formal insurance impacts the structure of social networks providing insurance. Agents, confronted with idiosyncratic risks, can either establish risk-sharing connections or opt for formal insurance. In deciding to form a connection, agents evaluate the sum of the utilities of both parties. I characterize the equilibrium of the insurance game and show that an agent's equilibrium demand for formal insurance decreases with the number of agents she can rely on. Moreover, this demand is Pareto efficient given the network. 

If insurance pricing results in only unconnected agents subscribing, efficient network components can be smaller than those in stable networks. Interestingly, the impact of formal insurance pricing on the size of stable network components is non-monotonic. Contrary to expectations, formal insurance doesn't entirely displace informal networks; it can even bolster informal risk-sharing.

Abstract: Tourism is an essential sector of the global economy, contributing significantly to GDP and employment. Despite its importance, our understanding of its impact on urban economic activity remains limited. This paper aims to fill this gap by examining the impact of tourism on urban transformation using a dataset of hotel openings in Madrid over the period 2001-2010. I show that hotel openings have a positive impact on the number of establishments and employment by using the number of protected buildings as an instrumental variable to account for the non-random distribution of hotel openings. Interestingly, the impacts vary between different economic sectors and areas within the city, with tourism-oriented businesses benefiting significantly while production-oriented activities experience negative impacts. In addition, the spatial impacts of tourism extend beyond the immediate vicinity, suggesting indirect economic spillover effects on job creation in more distant areas. Finally, economic effects extend to the real estate market, increasing rental prices and residential investment.

Abstract: Growing evidence indicates that workers are affected by shocks to the product market demand of their employers, yet the role of labor market institutions in determining the winners and losers of these shocks is not well understood. I study the role of collective bargaining, a prevalent wage-setting institution in many countries, in determining the effect of economic shocks across firms. To do so, I leverage novel administrative data which allows me to construct the network linking employers to collective bargaining agreements in Argentina. I exploit changes in world import demand between 2009 and 2013 to construct exogenous shocks to both the product demand of the individual firm and the average agreement-level product demand. My findings indicate a 1.5% wage increase following a shock equivalent to a 10% rise in firm revenue, and a 4.3% wage increase following a shock equivalent to a 10% rise in average revenue of firms under the same agreement. The evidence suggests that these effects are driven by changes in common wage floors, which means that bargaining extends the impact of economic shocks to firms and workers not directly affected. I develop and estimate a general equilibrium model of the labor market with collective bargaining to study how the degree of centralization of bargaining affects the intensity of shock propagation. Contrary to expectation, I find that counterfactual networks with more centralized bargaining do not necessarily lead to stronger shock propagation.

Abstract: Marriage migration is a considerable component of migration to OECD countries, but its economic drivers are underexplored. Muslims, a significant and growing population in OECD countries, exhibit a notable rate of marriage migration. Approximately 50\% of British Muslims marry someone from their country of origin. Using a structural estimation approach, this paper identifies the contributions of various underlying factors driving the markedly high Muslim marriage migration rate. I introduce the option of marrying someone from abroad into the classical matching models, thereby identifying and quantifying the drivers of marriage migration.  Results show that when Muslims marry within their own group, the gains are similar to those of Indian and Sikh communities. However, due to their “cheap” access to similar individuals from their home countries, Muslims are more inclined to choose international marriages. In the absence of assortative matching preferences, their marriage migration rate would resemble that of non-Muslims, about 10%. Marriage migration policies cannot alter preferences in the short run; therefore, policies designed to increase the costs associated with marriage migration cannot significantly increase mixing between Muslims and non-Muslims. However, these policies lower Muslims' welfare and lead to a larger number of them remaining single.

Abstract: Approximately one-third of global youth encounter bullying, but we're still grappling with how to effectively prevent it. Empathy, a crucial social-emotional skill, is believed to be negatively related to aggressive behaviors, yet the underlying mechanisms remain understudied. This paper fills these gaps by leveraging unique data obtained from conducting a randomized control trial of a parental involvement program on empathy development in middle schools in China. We find that the treated students improved their empathy and reduced bullying. Furthermore, offering this program also changed the social network structure: it increased friendship links, decreased isolation, and reduced the number of bully friends. To understand the mechanisms, we build and estimate a model composed of the empathy production function, network formation, and students' bullying decisions. The model reveals the individual human capital effect of empathy on bullying through private utility and the social effect through changes in the friendship network and associated peer effects. Decomposing the empathy effects, we find that the social effect is non-negligible, accounting for half of the empathy’s human capital effect on reducing bullying. Ultimately, this study aims to foster the innovation of public policy to prevent bullying and violent behaviors more broadly.

Abstract: The reservation wage is an important element in equilibrium labor market models. In this paper, I use new government Benefit Accuracy Measurement (BAM) survey data on unemployment insurance (UI) claimants to study the relationships between reservation wages and labor market conditions. The direction of most measures is in accordance with the theory. While the layoffs rate coefficient aligns with the theory, the total separation rate deviates from it, due to the role of quits rate in the job separation rate. Among the main indicators, workers are most responsive to the employment-to-population ratio. Results also show that the aggregate employment indicators matter more than worker’s group-specific measures, indicating that workers focus more on the aggregate market conditions. To introduce exogeneity, I include shift share measures in my specifications and find similar positive relationships between the reservation wage and the shift share measures. All results are robust to different sub-sample selections and specifications.

Abstract: Are households with low financial skills disadvantaged in the mortgage market? We construct a unique dataset encompassing mortgage details and borrowers' attributes including a financial literacy measure to find that households with low financial skills search less, lock in at 15-20 b.p. higher rates, face a 12-16%  higher mortgage delinquency and end up with a 30% lower likelihood of refinancing. Overall, for a smaller $100,000 loan, the potential losses from low financial literacy are over $10,000 over the mortgage duration. To understand how financial education, more accessible mortgages or mortgage rate changes affect households with low financial literacy, we formulate and calibrate a mortgage market model with search frictions and endogenous financial skills. Our model estimates show that search intensity and financial skill variations contribute to 55% and 10% of mortgage rate variations, respectively. We find that i) more accessible mortgages lower the search cost and lead to a higher delinquency risk among low-skilled households, ii) financial education mitigates the adverse effects of increased accessibility, and iii) low mortgage rates favor high-skilled homeowners and, by reinforcing refinancing activity, deepen consumption differences across different financial skill levels. 

Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of a permanent shock to world common element of Total Factor Productivity (WTFP) on total hours worked (THW) in 21 OECD countries from 1971 to 2017. Using Gali's identification method (1999), I find that the WTFP shock creates a positive effect (less decline or even increase) in total hours worked compared to Country Level TFP (CLTFP) shock. In the further analysis, I introduced Financial Openness (FO) and Factor Biased Technological Change (FBTC) following the model by Cardi and Restout (2022) to investigate the transmission mechanism of WTFP shock in the international trade context. Robustness checks show that countries with greater FO experience more decline in THW. Meanwhile, FBTC is approximated by Labour Income Share (LIS) to indicate the sectoral biased effect of WTFP shock. The results reveal the dispersion in total hours worked, aggregate and sectoral labour income share, meaning that there are more factors than LIS to indicate the biased effect of WTFP shock that eventually causes the positive effect on THW. Overall, this research offers valuable insights into the sectoral implications and the influence of technology shocks in the international trade context.

Abstract: Utilizing an internal migration shock, this study examines the labor substitutability between prime-age (ages 25-54) and marginal-retirement-age (ages 55-64) workers. A 1% increase in young worker inflows boosts relative employment of young to old workers by 1.47%, with approximately 55% attributed to the non-mechanical effect of the inflows. The inflow shock triggers a reduction of 0.19% in relative earnings, which indicates the elasticity of substitution around 7.7 between these two labor cohorts. Moreover, interpreted via the overlapping generations model, these findings imply that the utility of older workers may have diminished in an aging society due to the slowdown in economic growth. However, the inflow of younger workers can offset this by increasing total output and enabling older workers to earn higher wages. A high elasticity of substitution in an economy can further mitigate the decline in older workers' utility.

Abstract: I uncover an economically meaningful channel through which fund managers foster investor risk-taking, build trust, and impact asset prices. I measure communication by fund managers about unrealized risks to their clients, and document its prevalence. Using an institutional setting that enables causal identification, I find that increased communication about future risks encourages investors to increase (not decrease) their holdings in the market portfolio. I rule out belief-based persuasion, uncertainty reduction, ambiguity alleviation and other potential explanations. Additional analyses show this communication soothes investors' anxiety and alleviates their effective risk aversion, consistent with the money doctors framework of Gennaioli, Shleifer, and Vishny (2015, Journal of Finance).

Abstract: This paper seeks to identify the long-term effects of the 1980-2000 Peruvian civil conflict by providing evidence on the intergenerational impacts. Using spatial and time-varying exposure to conflict, we find that an increase in mothers' exposure to violence leads to adverse effects on children, mainly on non-cognitive outcomes such as agency, self-esteem and pride. These effects are present in early childhood and persist into adolescence, and these results are robust to several checks. An investigation of the underlying mechanisms highlights the role of the effect of conflict on mother’s education and fertility decisions. Using detailed information on migration patterns, we also find that while migration decisions mitigated some of the adverse effects of conflict, they are unable to account for all the effects.

Abstract:  Like US monetary policy, US fiscal policy has a formidable global footprint: the US fiscal condition is the single most important fiscal determinant of any risky asset price, anywhere around the world. Even for their own risky asset markets, foreign fiscal conditions play a limited role in price determination once the US fiscal condition is appropriately controlled for. These findings are not driven by US monetary policy: the risk-free rate component poorly accounts for the international transmission of US fiscal shocks into global risky asset prices. These results therefore shed new light on the economic origins of the global financial cycle, suggesting that it is as much a fiscal phenomenon as it is a monetary one. To explain these striking results, I advance a novel fiscal mechanism that emphasises the special US role as the global innovation leader. Since the US is central to the global innovation network, her fiscal policy can uniquely shape i) global growth prospects, ii) the global fiscal cycle, iii) global policy uncertainty and iv) global risk-premia through her outsized distortionary impact on global innovation. Thus the global footprint of US fiscal policy is an artefact of the US leadership role in the global economy, an asymmetry that is distinct from the dollar's global reserve currency status which is thought to drive the global footprint of US monetary policy. 

Abstract: : In the light of the rise in populism in Europe, this paper empirically explores the interplay between population aging and populist attitudes. We test our hypothesis by conducting a multilevel analysis of individuals living in 34 European countries over the period 2002-2019. Our measure of population aging is the country's old-age dependency ratio, thus we focus on population or societal aging as opposed to individual aging. Populist attitudes are derived from individual level data that provide information about voting for populist parties, political trust and attitudes towards immigration available in nine consecutive rounds of the European Social Survey. Our findings suggest that societal aging is associated with a fall in trust in national and European institutions and a rise in attitudes against immigrants. There are two potential mechanisms driving our results. First, a shift in the median voter age. Older people tend to be more conservative, voting for right-wing parties and this is reflected on the median vote and attitude as well. The second mechanism appeals to the impact that the presence of the ``old'' group has on the society and the economy as a whole, it is thus more of an ``externality'' effect. Living in an aging society, young people are aware of the fact that they have to cater for a large share of old people and this gives rise to different incentives and attitudes compared to individuals living in ``young'' societies. 

Abstract: : This paper explores the impact of the 2018 China-U.S. trade war on air pollution in China. On one hand, trade shock may decrease economic output and air pollution. On the other hand, China's recent policy emphasis on pollution control may be redirected to economic growth. Local governments may relax the enforcement of environmental policies, which leads to an increase in air pollution. Using HS8-product-country level export data, we find that the trade war has no effect on China's total exports due to a destination country shift from the U.S. to other countries. We then construct city-level tariff exposure and compare the pollution in highly and lowly attacked cities. We find that the trade war increased air pollution in 2019. As the tariff burden increases by 1%, SO2 and PM2.5 increase by 1.7% and 0.9%, respectively. We conclude that the trade war leads to lenient environmental policies while having minimal effect on China's economic activity.

Abstract: Do inflation expectations respond to changes in monetary policy, namely, Inflation Targeting? Subjective expectations, a survey expectations of professional forecasters for 32 Inflation Targeting countries, and an event study methodology are used to find that countries with price stability as the single objective, have a reduction in short run forecast errors. Moreover, the reduction in forecast errors is the result of a change in inflation and not expectations. The key insight of the paper is that Inflation Targeting does not have a direct impact on short-run inflation expectations. In addition, the change in forecast errors but not expectations lends support to the idea that inflation leads expectations. Finally, the paper also performs a quantitative exercise which finds that agents attach some weight to the inflation target which central banks can leverage to build credibility ex-post, by reducing inflation.  

Abstract: : Black and Hispanic students are under-represented in advanced high school courses such as calculus. Peer composition is a potential explanation, but there is limited evidence on whether desegregation can close this racial gap. To this end, I estimate a simultaneous-move game of course choice with race-specific heterogeneous peer effects. The model estimates reveal substantial heterogeneity in peer effects both between and within racial groups. Using the model estimates and the concept of entropy to measure segregation, I simulate course choices at counterfactual segregation levels. The simulations suggest that the racial gap between White and Black students' course-taking decreases as segregation between schools decreases. 

Abstract:  Univariate panel model with grouped fixed effects has been well discussed in previous studies. This paper studies the multivariate panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model with group-based estimators. It is flexible as the number of groups, the group membership in each group and equation are not specified, and it can also be extended to group-specific heterogeneous coefficient Panel VAR and Panel VAR with both grouped fixed effects and individual fixed effects. Compared with interactive fixed effects model, it is parsimonious and coefficients are unbiased. We show that it is consistent when both N and T goes to infinity. 

Abstract:  While extensive literature is available on the impact of the early childhood nutritional food program, little we know about the nutritious food provision at a later stage. Our paper examines the causal effect of one such program. In late 2010, the central government of India introduced the Rajiv Gandhi Scheme for Empowerment of Adolescent Girls (SABLA) for adolescent girls aged 11-18. The implementation of the program provides us with ample variation in the treatment. Using multiple nationally representative datasets, we employ the difference in differences technique to estimate the causal impact of the program on the educational and learning outcomes of potentially treated adolescent girls. Our results reveal that the program significantly improves enrollment status and basic learning outcomes (reading ability and math skills). We identify the significant improvement in the programs’ potential recipient health status (BMI and weight) and the increase in the child-specific educational expenditure as the possible mediating channels causing these effects. Our findings also suggest that the impact is vital for those who get early access to the program. This implies that government should focus on providing nutritious food in early childhood, rather than later, for the overall development of children. Our findings are consistent across different datasets, tested against potential confounding factors, and are robust to alternative specifications.   

Abstract:  This study aims to examine the factors that affect individuals' perceptions of the affordability of residential energy across European union countries. Using data from the European Social Survey (ESS) we conducted an econometric analysis to investigate the relationships between energy affordability perception and risk and trust attitudes. The results indicate that trust, particularly trust in politicians, is a significant factor in shaping individuals' perceptions of energy affordability. The impact of risk attitudes is largely mediated by social attitudes and socio-economic characteristics. Overall, this study suggests that trust may be an important factor influencing household energy consumption.  

Abstract:  The decisions on place-based infrastructure development can be influenced by the vested interests of policymakers. This paper investigates the role of politicians’ rent-seeking behavior in shaping urban development, with a focus on South Korea. Specifically, I examine the suspicion that infrastructure projects are more likely to be announced near politicians’ real estate assets, with the aim of inflating the prices of neighboring properties. To test this hypothesis, the publicly disclosed wealth data of South Korean politicians is analyzed. The results indicate that the distribution of politicians’ assets tends to cluster around future development sites. To establish causality, a regression discontinuity design (RDD) analysis is conducted using close-election results. The RDD regression results suggest that the proximity of winning politicians’ real estate assets within 1 km has a 7.1 percent higher probability of seeing an urban development project announced within five years after the close elections, compared to the proximity of runner-ups’ assets within 1 km. These findings provide evidence that politicians’ rent-seeking behavior may influence the evolution of urban development.

Abstract: A partially privatized public firm competes with a private one in a game of endogenous product differentiation. The public firm maximizes a convex combination of its profits and the median voter's utility. I show that: (i) the public firm's profits may exceed those of its private competitor; (ii) the socially optimal degree of privatization is interior; (iii) there is a trade-off between efficiency and access to provision.

Abstract: Are green investors investing in activities that actually benefit the environment or only claim to benefit it? I answer this question by testing the relationship between investor decisions and a firm's substantive green transition (i.e., walk) or communication of a green corporate image (i.e., talk). I propose a novel approach to measure walk and talk separately by applying natural language processing to online job postings. Since walk and talk require workers to specialize in different tasks, I use a firm's demand for walk-relevant workers as a proxy for its efforts on walk, and the same goes for talk. I document firms that talk more are assigned a better environmental rating and are held by more sustainable funds, keeping the walk level fixed. A higher level of talk correlates with a higher increase in the number of institutional investors holding the firm's stock and predicts a significantly higher stock return, while a higher level of walk does not. These findings show that green investors' portfolio choices are sensitive to a firm's talk, potentially deviating from their goal of supporting substantive green transition. 

Abstract: In this study, I consider the general equilibrium consequences of government intervention in markets through the lens of trade in wildlife and environmental protection policies. As a first step, I show that wildlife trade is associated with armed groups’ activity and fuels conflicts. After establishing this relationship, I show that both banning trade in a main demand market (China) for ivory and banning international trade in rhino horn and expensive trees - rosewood and ebony - fuel conflicts in resource habitat areas. In order to show this, I construct a georeferenced panel-grid of conflict events for 1997-2021 using the ACLED database and combine it with habitat areas of different species across Africa, necessary to assign cells to either treatment or control groups. In the case of ivory, an increase of one standard deviation in its price increases the likelihood of conflicts by approximately 10% from the baseline risk. When accounting for elephant’s spatial distribution, its contribution to conflicts is larger than the contribution of other well-investigated commodities (e.g. gold and copper). Based on the analysis, banning the ivory trade in China - ivory’s primary demand market - increases the likelihood of conflicts in elephant habitat areas in Africa by six percentage points (52%), and CITES bans on the international trade of rosewood and ebony increase the likelihood of conflicts in their habitat areas by 2.9 and 4.6 percentage points (14.5% and 27% respectively). I conclude the analysis with an empirical investigation of the effect of supply-increasing policy shocks in the ivory market - following Kremer and Morcom (2000) - on conflicts, pointing to a possible solution. This analysis emphasises several main points. First, the degree of sophistication of armed groups in extracting resources and their funding channels - any valuable resource will be exploited by those economic agents. Second, this analysis emphasises the complexity of government intervention policies in general, and specifically of imposing environmental conservation and protection policies - especially at the international level and calls for a reevaluation of the cost-benefit of some of those policies. Third, the study uncovers a major channel for environmental damage and reduction in biodiversity. Fourth, the study emphasises the gap and complementarity between legislation and enforcement - unenforced legislation could potentially cause more harm than the initial state. 

Abstract: Does city tourism harm residents’ quality of life and satisfaction with amenities? Using TripAdvisor reviews, we construct a unique panel data on tourism activity in Paris. Based on two exogenous drops in tourism, the 2015 terrorist attack and the first wave of the Covid- 19 pandemic, we document that tourism causes a decline in Parisians’ satisfaction with restaurants and other amenities. We consider three potential mechanisms: overcrowding, supply-side changes and xenophobia. Using text analysis we find some support for the xenophobia mechanism. Tourism increases the occurrence of subjects related to tourists in the restaurant reviews, while other topics related to food quality, price and overcrowding remain unaffected. The effect is strongest for restaurants popular among tourists from countries with weaker social ties to France.

Abstract: Much is understood about how trade affects gender inequality in terms of labour force participation and wages at the firm and sector-level. However, how trade affects gender inequality at the household-level is an under explored area of research. This paper uses the Vietnam-US Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) that came into force in 2001 as a natural experiment to explore how the disproportionate expansion of female-intensive sectors can trigger structural transformation for the female labour force, and how this affects the spousal wage gap. Exploiting provincial variation in exposure to the BTA, I find that women increased their contribution to the total household income by up to 13 percent points in the 4 years following the implementation of the trade agreement. I then turn to look at whether the closing of the spousal wage gap led to changes in the allocation of household resources that could be indicative of higher female intrahousehold bargaining power. I find that although the spousal wage gap is smaller in more liberalised areas, this did not translate unequivocally into higher bargaining power for women.

Abstract: This research explores the biogeographical origins of the emergence and diffusion of agriculture. I develop a model showing that large-herbivore extinction decreased hunting gains and permitted an earlier agricultural transition. It also shows that mammals’ biological vulnerability increased the extinction risk and promoted an earlier transition. To test the predictions, I construct a novel measure of the loss of hunting resources resulting from mammal extinction. Using multiple datasets and exploiting the biological vulnerability as an instrument for the extinction, the research establishes a positive impact of the extinction on the timing and the likelihood of the agricultural transition. It also shows a persistent effect of the prehistoric extinction on socioeconomic development that lasted until the preindustrial period.

Abstract: Institutional design can influence the efficacy of public investment programmes. Specifically, devolution of authority may trigger tactical redistribution between different tiers of government and facilitate patronage dynamics at local level. We test this hypothesis in the context of the Cassa per il Mezzogiorno (CasMez): a massive investment programme for the development of Southern Italy (1950-1984). By 1971, a radical institutional reform modified the CasMez’s governance: the authority over funds allocation was transferred from a centralised and technical committee to the newborn Regional governments. This paper investigates how the reform affected the CasMez’s distributive politics. We focus on the period 1960-1984 and study whether municipalities aligned with the Regional government (i.e controlled by the same party) received more funds compared to unaligned ones. We combine unique historical data on local administrators with detailed information on projects approval and financing, and implement a Two-Way-Fixed-Effects strategy. Our results suggest that aligned municipalities were assigned a higher number of projects and received larger per-capita amounts, without producing any positive impact on long-run economic outcomes. The effect is driven by subsidies to local firms. This evidence supports our claim that the institutional reform of 1971 distorted funds allocation, and possibly paved the way for rent-seeking pressures by local lobbies and patronage dynamics.

Abstract: Can public violence spill over to intimate partner violence (IPV) and if so, through which channels? This paper uses the unexpected and geographically heterogeneous rise in drug-related violence occurring in Mexico since December 2006 to analyze whether living in a municipality increasingly exposed to violent crime changes a household’s internal use of violence. Combining georeferenced conflict data with survey data on household dynamics, I use two difference-in-differences methodologies to show that a rise in conflict-related homicides leads to a significant increase in the share of women experiencing both acts and threats of physical violence by their male partners. This trend is found in parallel to an average rise in women's tolerance for partner abuse, and a drop in divorces on grounds of domestic violence in those affected municipalities. Furthermore, IPV growth is mostly found amongst households where the woman has low bargaining power. Thus, the conflict effect on IPV is associated with a rising tolerance for violence, which might become a new instrument for the male partner to get more decision-making power, especially when the woman's outside options seem hampered.

Abstract:  Advocates for the use of a multi-measure system of performance evaluation argue that multiple measures may better capture meaningful differences in employee effectiveness and help align effort with organizational objectives. This may be particularly important in organizations such as schools that produce multiple outcomes. In this paper, I estimate the relative contributions of the subjective (supervisor observations and student surveys) versus objective (value-added) evaluation measures in capturing teacher effectiveness at increasing cognitive and non-cognitive skills. I use data from a large urban public school district where teacher compensation is tied to the evaluation measures. Estimates reveal that the subjective measures provide information about teacher effects on short-run achievement and absences as well as long-run achievement in ways that value-added does not. However, value-added remains the most significantly related to long-term achievement and absences along with short-term achievement. Findings in this paper establish a foundation for the larger investigation of the effects of the evaluation and compensation reform on student outcomes.

Abstract:  This paper investigates the economic incentives underlying the choice of bonds in corporate bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs) redemption. In the primary market between ETF sponsors and authorized participants (APs), sponsors fill baskets with bonds exposed to price pressure, and APs select assets that negatively correlate with illiquidity in their overall corporate bond portfolios. In the secondary market, where ETF shares are publicly traded, days with redemption are associated with lower ETF returns, liquidity, price efficiency, and demand elasticity. APs profit from redemption by correcting discrepancies between ETF share prices and portfolio values. These results are robust and persistent in exaggerated redemption throughout the COVID-19 pandemic.

Abstract:  The decision to arrest men who abuse their partner is often at the police officers' discretion, especially when the abuse is not serious. However, such light abuse may accumulate and deteriorate women's welfare. This paper uses Russia's criminal law reform that decriminalized light domestic and non-domestic violence as a natural experiment to study the effect of decriminalization of light intimate partner violence on married women's welfare. Using difference-in-differences and flexibly controlling for macroeconomic shocks with unmarried women as a control group, I find that the reform decreased married women's life satisfaction and increased depression. The effect size is similar for college-educated women and women in high-qualified occupations who may be more sensitive to general violence norms. The likely mechanism is that the reform muted married women because the law no longer protected them from their partners' light abuses: while unmarried women began to express less tolerance toward intimate partner violence, married women did not. Also, married or unmarried men did not change their tolerance significantly, suggesting that the effect is women-specific. These findings suggest that decriminalizing intimate partner violence decreases married women's welfare, even if it is a light one, and highlights the importance of legal institutions in harnessing intimate partner violence. 

Abstract: We study the reasons behind firms’ decision to finance politics. We formulate two hypotheses under which firms decide to spend resources in political activity: rent-seeking and as insurance to avoid erratic policies. We test the first hypothesis on the basis of the data, finding no significant effect on profits and returns of prior spending for political activity. To test the second hypothesis, we created an insurance/ ex post- mitigation model and tested its prediction using an event study framework. We found that uninsured firms increased spending on lobbying after Trump’s election in 2016. As a robustness check, we also tested this prediction in the previous two Obama elections, without obtaining significant results. These results suggest that an unexpected political change involves firms in strengthening

political connections.

Abstract: Marriage migration is a considerable component of migration to OECD countries, but its economic drivers are underexplored. Muslims, a significant and growing population in OECD countries, exhibit a notable rate of marriage migration. Approximately 50\% of British Muslims marry someone from their country of origin. Using a structural estimation approach, this paper identifies the contributions of various underlying factors driving the markedly high Muslim marriage migration rate. I introduce the option of marrying someone from abroad into the classical matching models, thereby identifying and quantifying the drivers of marriage migration.  Results show that when Muslims marry within their own group, the gains are similar to those of Indian and Sikh communities. However, due to their “cheap” access to similar individuals from their home countries, Muslims are more inclined to choose international marriages. In the absence of assortative matching preferences, their marriage migration rate would resemble that of non-Muslims, about 10\%. Marriage migration policies cannot alter preferences in the short run; therefore, policies designed to increase the costs associated with marriage migration cannot significantly increase mixing between Muslims and non-Muslims. However, these policies lower Muslims' welfare and lead to a larger number of them remaining single.