Upcoming Presentations

Abstract: Are pre-grant patent effective forward-looking “news” signals for global innovation diffusion? To address this question, I use a novel 1980–2019 panel of pre-grant patent filing counts and trade data for 21 economies (17 OECD + 4 BRICS) to construct an import–share–weighted index of filed patents. I instrument this index with a Bartik shift–share of partner-country filed patent counts to isolate exogenous trade-driven shocks, and build an analogous granted-patent index for comparison. Panel local projections show that trade-driven pre-grant shocks, while slower to materialize, generate larger long-run TFP gains than granted-patent shocks and produce stronger, more immediate equity-market reactions across countries. At the sector level, shocks to the filed-patent index boost manufacturing TFP and R&D capital within one year and sustain growth thereafter; heterogeneous analysis shows that countries with more R&D-intensive manufacturing sectors experience even larger TFP gains. At the industry level, I use the quality-adjusted cited patent index by LaBelle et al. (2023) and interact it with value-added intensity to investigate the role of pre-grant cited patents across industries under their value-added structure in signaling future innovation diffusion. The average responses of labour productivity across manufacturing industries reveal that textiles and chemicals, which are more citation-driven, exhibit gradual but persistent gains. By contrast, machinery shows stronger and more immediate effects as it is more trade-driven. These results at the industry level further demonstrate the power of pre-grant patents as better forward-looking measures into the timing, channels, and heterogeneity of global innovation diffusion compared to granted patents. 

*This session is part of the Job Market Seminar Series.

Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of temporary sectoral shocks on human capital accumulation and introduces a structural model to quantify their long-term general equilibrium effects. I use Spain’s economic boom (1995-2007) as a case study, which represented a positive labor demand shock in construction and low-skill services, and show that it led to a persistent decline in educational attainment among young workers. To evaluate the general equilibrium implications of this shock during the transition, I construct a quantitative lifecycle model in which workers endogenously choose education and sectoral employment under imperfect human capital transferability. The model reproduces the observed decline in educational attainment and sluggish labor reallocation following the boom. The transition, which is driven primarily by new cohorts, entails a persistent decline in aggregate productivity, with cumulative losses of about 7% and convergence to the steady state over roughly 50 years. The findings demonstrate that positive sectoral shocks can generate adverse long-run aggregate outcomes and substantial distributional effects—cohorts born during the boom experience lifetime earnings gains of nearly 11%, while those born before or after incur losses—highlighting the scope for redistributive policy interventions.

*This session is part of the Job Market Seminar Series.

Abstract: This paper develops a search-theoretic model of money to analyze optimal fiscal and monetary policy when tax evasion is linked to payment methods. In a decentralized market, a sales tax is automatically collected on monitored electronic money (e-money) but can be evaded using unmonitored cash, subject to a detection probability. Buyers endogenously choose payment methods, determining the effective tax base. A benevolent Ramsey planner optimizes the sales tax, cash audit intensity, and fiat money growth rate, balancing revenue needs against evasion incentives and distortions. We then extend the model to include cryptocurrency as an untaxed alternative whose primary friction is its volatility. Crucially, volatility depends on a policy regime state Clear/Ambiguous x Friendly/Hostile, which evolves endogenously based on how policy actions of the government deviate from expectations. We set up the dynamic Ramsey problem and show that the planner balances current welfare gains against the future cost of inducing ambiguity when setting policies. The desire to maintain policy credibility disciplines deviations from expectations. The framework highlights the interplay between taxation, evasion technology, payment choice, policy credibility, and endogenous market volatility.

*This session is part of the Job Market Seminar Series.

Abstract: This study examines the socioeconomic characteristics of informal waste pickers in the city of Bamako, with a particular focus on the potential for formalizing their activities. Using a mixed-method approach, we combine both quantitative and qualitative data collected in the field between February and April 2021. The survey data allows us to develop a typology of waste pickers, highlighting the diversity of their profiles, while qualitative information from interviews with waste pickers and key stakeholders provides a better understanding of their experiences and perspectives. These qualitative findings help to contextualize and validate the trends observed in the quantitative data.

Our findings reveal a strong desire among waste pickers to transition to formal structures, particularly through the creation of cooperatives and associations. However, this transition requires targeted policy interventions, including the implementation of Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR), in order to improve working conditions, strengthen social protection, and integrate waste pickers into the city's formal waste management system. By addressing these challenges, formalization could have positive socio-economic and environmental effects in the city of Bamako.

*This session is part of the Job Market Seminar Series.