Upcoming Presentations

Abstract: This paper introduces a granular measure of labor market slack to estimate the slope of the Phillips curve. The measure is based on business surveys of perceived labor shortages and is available at the sub-sector-country level. This granularity enables panel estimation with interactive fixed effects, which flexibly controls for unobserved common factors related to inflation expectations and supply-side determinants. Crucially, common components are allowed to impact differently both sub-sectors and countries. Estimates for the euro area result in a significantly steeper Phillips curve than those obtained using conventional measures and standard empirical specifications.

Abstract: In 2018, the Colombian government intervened in the pharmaceutical market by creating cap prices on high-cost birth control pills. Given the necessity of these drugs, the effects of price reductions are not always clear. Also, there is no evidence of whether the policy effectively increased access to contraception and reduced pregnancy rates. Therefore, this study aims to analyze fertility changes due to price caps on birth control pills. Using administrative claims from an insurer in the contributory regime, I found little evidence that price regulation affected fertility, even for young women. The results indicate that the policy did not achieve its goal of reducing fertility.

Abstract: This paper examines how political incumbency affects regional banking outcomes. Exploiting the pre-determined and fixed nature of gubernatorial elections in Indonesia, we find that the incumbent reelection lowers credit levels in their region, especially for provinces with a higher risk of political clientelism. Our transmission mechanism test indicates that the result is driven by the governors’ decreasing interest in investing in public infrastructure, which lowers fiscal expenditure and undermines the effect of fiscal multiplier on the economy. We further find asymmetric effects of political incumbency on economic growth, but no effect on bank credit risk. Overall, these findings highlight an underexplored channel, which allows clientelism to affect bank intermediation.

Abstract: We focus on the relationship between exposure to gambling shops and gambling-related harms. Gambling is now a public health concern, but its economic geography and associated harms are underexplored. We propose a framework that combines proximity and density, use data on gambling shops matched with surveys and measure the impact of gamblogenic environments on problem gambling using probit models and coarsened exact matching. Living closer to and in high densities of gambling shops, increases the likelihood of gambling and being a problematic gambler. The spatial distribution of gambling venues matters and calls for targeted interventions to mitigate harms.