Upcoming Presentations

Abstract: This article uses historical data from French banks to document the sources of bank failures in France between 1918 and 1928. The analysis shows that failed banks faced a liquidity and not a solvency issue. Indeed, a high capital ratio has led to an illusory feeling of stability, encouraging banks to invest in risky activities. Suffering losses or unable to meet repayment requests, they were forced to default. Conversely, banks’ readily available liquidity is associated with a reduced probability of failure, highlighting its protective role against shocks and strengthening the argument of the liquidity shortage. These results specific to the 1920s can be explained by the context of monetary instability which favored speculation. However, the involvement of the banking sector in financing public debt has prevented most banks from falling into the trap of excessive risk-taking and illiquidity, thus avoiding a significant increase in banking failures.

Abstract: Taxation is a cornerstone of state capacity, yet Africa faces persistent challenges in strengthening tax capacity, especially under intensified climate shocks. Using tax noncompliance behavior as a proxy, this study offers the first investigation into how climate change affects tax capacity across the continent. Leveraging public opinion surveys and remote sensing data from 38 African countries between 2011 and 2018, we demonstrate that weather extremes significantly increase the probability of tax noncompliance, particularly among economically disadvantaged populations. Three mechanisms underpin this relationship: worsening food and fuel insecurity, deteriorating economic prospects, and growing dissatisfaction and distrust in state institutions. Furthermore, we provide back-of-the-envelope estimations of potential revenue losses associated with climate-induced noncompliance and explore the role of climate adaptation in mitigating these effects. Our results imply that climate change is a critical threat to state capacity in developing countries and suggest building climate-resilient infrastructure while addressing citizen responses in the era of climate change.

Abstract: We examine the impact of the opening of refugee reception centers on natives' social media activity and voting behavior in the Netherlands during the large and unexpected refugee inflow of 2015-2016. Using over 100 million geocoded tweets and a difference-in-differences approach, we find a short-lived surge in refugee salience on social media, accompanied by a decline in expressed support for refugees and increased discussions about religious minorities, particularly Islam. Linking social media salience to voting behavior, we analyze detailed voting data and document a significant rise in anti-immigration voting near newly established reception centers. This effect diminishes over time and with distance from the centers. Furthermore, we show that areas with a strong initial salience response to refugees drive increased support for anti-immigration parties, while areas with high pre-existing refugee salience exhibit no such increase in anti-immigration votes.

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly reshaped labour markets globally, with significant gendered and intersectional disparities in employment outcomes. This study investigates the nuanced impacts of the pandemic on women’s labour market participation in the UK, with a particular focus on the "motherhood penalty" and the compounded vulnerabilities faced by women of ethnic minority and migrant backgrounds. Utilising data from the Understanding Society COVID-19 Study, this research analyses employment transitions during the initial stages of the pandemic (April-May 2020) to identify the interplay between gender, caregiving responsibilities, ethnic migrant status, and occupational characteristics. The findings reveal stark gendered inequalities: mothers with school-aged children experienced significantly higher unemployment rates compared to their male counterparts and women without caregiving responsibilities. These disparities were exacerbated for Black, Asian, and minority ethnic (BAME) migrant women, who faced compounded risks due to systemic barriers and limited childcare support. Additionally, employment in non-contact-intensive industries and cohabitation mitigated unemployment risks for some, while furlough schemes drove increased self-employment activities among women with caregiving burdens. This paper contributes to the literature by adopting an intersectional framework to unravel the complex dynamics of gender, ethnicity, and caregiving in shaping employment vulnerabilities. The findings underscore the urgent need for inclusive labour policies that address structural inequities and provide targeted support to the most affected groups. By shedding light on the disproportionate impacts of the pandemic, this research provides a foundation for designing equitable recovery strategies and fostering resilience in the labour market.