Upcoming Presentations

Abstract: In 2018, the Colombian government intervened in the pharmaceutical market by creating cap prices on high-cost birth control pills. Given the necessity of these drugs, the effects of price reductions are not always clear. Also, there is no evidence of whether the policy effectively increased access to contraception and reduced pregnancy rates. Therefore, this study aims to analyze fertility changes due to price caps on birth control pills. Using administrative claims from an insurer in the contributory regime, I found little evidence that price regulation affected fertility, even for young women. The results indicate that the policy did not achieve its goal of reducing fertility.

Abstract: This paper examines how political incumbency affects regional banking outcomes. Exploiting the pre-determined and fixed nature of gubernatorial elections in Indonesia, we find that the incumbent reelection lowers credit levels in their region, especially for provinces with a higher risk of political clientelism. Our transmission mechanism test indicates that the result is driven by the governors’ decreasing interest in investing in public infrastructure, which lowers fiscal expenditure and undermines the effect of fiscal multiplier on the economy. We further find asymmetric effects of political incumbency on economic growth, but no effect on bank credit risk. Overall, these findings highlight an underexplored channel, which allows clientelism to affect bank intermediation.

Abstract: We focus on the relationship between exposure to gambling shops and gambling-related harms. Gambling is now a public health concern, but its economic geography and associated harms are underexplored. We propose a framework that combines proximity and density, use data on gambling shops matched with surveys and measure the impact of gamblogenic environments on problem gambling using probit models and coarsened exact matching. Living closer to and in high densities of gambling shops, increases the likelihood of gambling and being a problematic gambler. The spatial distribution of gambling venues matters and calls for targeted interventions to mitigate harms.

Abstract: While a large literature has examined how bank credit shocks affect firms or households, it has not accounted for the fact that such shocks may simultaneously impact both. In this paper, we overcome this limitation and disentangle the real impact of a credit market disruption into the effect of firm-side credit shocks, individual-side credit shocks, and their interaction. To this end, we construct a novel dataset linking Norwegian employees to their employers and their respective bank relationships. We show that individuals’ labor income and consumption decline by 1–2% when only they or only their employer face a credit shock, compared to the benchmark where neither do. However, when individuals and their employer simultaneously face a credit shock, labor income and consumption decline by nearly 6%, revealing a strong amplification effect. This amplification arises because personal credit constraints hinder individuals’ consumption smoothing and job search when confronted with wage cuts or layoffs triggered by their employer’s credit constraints. Our findings suggest that this mechanism also shapes the aggregate transmission of credit shocks.