Job Market Paper 

Pre-Grant Patents and Innovation Diffusion

Abstract: Are pre-grant patents effective forward-looking signals of global innovation diffusion? To answer this question, I use local projection to unpack the timing and channel-specific effects through pre-grant patent flows and quality across countries, sectors and industries over time. At country level, results show that the pre-grant patent shocks generate larger and more persistent TFP gains and stock price through foreign innovation channel. This confirms that international technology spillovers originate from the expansion of the global stock of knowledge rather than strategic changes in trade intensity between home countries and their partners. Pre-grant patent shocks raise manufacturing TFP and R&D capital after one year in manufacturing sectors across countries, reflecting their forward-looking nature that prompts resource reallocation in anticipation of future productivity gains. These gains are especially pronounced in countries whose manufacturing sectors are more R&D-intensive. At the industry level, the results show that countries with more value-added–intensive industries are better able to translate pre-grant patents into higher labour productivity gains.

Presented at (*: scheduled): *Annual Conference of Scottich Economic Society, 2026; CMA-Durham Workshop, 2025; RSA Regional Futures Conference, 2025 ; National Institute of Economic and Social Research Brown Bag Seminar, 2025; Lancaster University Macro Reading Group, 2025; PhD-Economic Virtual Seminar Job Market Paper Series, 2025; Lancaster University Department of Economics Internal Seminar, 2025; Macroeconomics Research Unit Seminar Series, University of Kwazulu-Natal; NWSSDTP PhD Conference, University of Manchester; 

References