Published Book Chapter
Yu, J. and Cao, W. (2024) ‘China’s strategic interest in Guyana’s oil: Present engagement and future outlook’. In: Mair, J. and Beck, A. (eds.) Oil Dorado, Edition 7 (2025 Edition).
Publication
Yu, J. (2022) ‘The effects of COVID-19 on the labor market’, Journal of Economics, Business and Management, 10(1), pp. 65–71. doi:10.18178/joebm.2022.10.1.675.
Work in Progress
Global Tehnology Shocks and Labor Dynamics: Aggregate and Sectoral Evidence from OECD Countries
Abstract: To what extent does trade facilitate gains from technology diffusion and productivity gains across countries? Using panel local projection, this study examines the aggregate and sectoral diffusion of global technology shocks across 18 OECD countries from 1971 to 2015. To capture the diffusion of global technology shocks beyond traditional domestic TFP measures, I construct World Total Factor Productivity (WTFP) as an exogenous measure through import-weighted average of trade partners' utilization-adjusted TFP changes. In the short run, global technology shocks diffuse through traded sectors and boost foreign demand and prices for domestic traded goods. This incentivizes firms to expand output and hire more workers along with increase in total hours worked and TFP for long term productivity growth. Over time, global technology shocks create more jobs along with permanent increase in output, domestic TFP with lower hours worked. Borrowing capacity and labor mobility reflects the cross-country heterogeneity in the global technology diffusion: countries with greater external borrowing capacity rely more on imports to meet rising demand while those with higher mobility of labor forces facilitate faster sectoral reallocation and more efficient uptake of productivity gains. In light of recent trade tensions, these findings highlight the importance of maintaining open trade networks to make the most of the global technology diffusion for future productivity growth and labor market resilience.
Presented at (*: scheduled): LSE-Miguel Dols Fellows' Workshop Spring 2024-5 (Video from 1:31:34); Durham University Business School Doctoral Conference: AI and Digital Technologies in Business (2025); MMF PhD Conference (2025); Lancaster Workshop on Empirical and Theoretical Macroeconomics (2025); Lancaster University Graduate College PGR Seminar (2024, 2025); Lancaster University PhD Economics Seminar series (2025); PhD-EVS seminar series (2023, 2024); RGS Doctoral Conference in Economics (2024); RES Easter Training School (2024); NWSSDTP PhD Conference (2024); Lancaster University Macro Reading Group (2023).