Working Papers:

• “Groundwater, Climate Change and Conflict: Empirical Evidence from Africa” (with Mathieu Couttenier and Remi Jedwab) - R&R at the World Bank Economic Review
  
  Groundwater plays a crucial role in supporting livelihoods and economic activities in Africa, particularly in regions affected by climate-induced water scarcity. This study explores the economic implications of groundwater resources during periods of climate shocks and their relationship to conflict dynamics in affected regions. It employs a comprehensive dataset covering the period from 1997 to 2021, encompassing information on conflict events and groundwater availability. The relationship between groundwater depth, climate shocks, and conflict occurrences is analyzed through both cross-sectional and temporal analyses across 10,310 cells (each 0.5×0.5◦, or ≈ 55×55 km). We define two measures of local climate shocks: a temporary shock based on yearly variation, and a persistent shock using a moving average of temperature over multiple years. The findings suggest that areas with a higher proportion of shallow water –i.e., more accessible groundwater– have become increasingly prone to violence over time, particularly in the presence of persistent local climate shocks. Moreover, these persistent shocks have a greater impact on low-intensity and localized conflict events in regions with more accessible groundwater. Further, within-cell inequalities in water access emerge as significant conflict drivers. Lastly, secondary analyses examining the respective contributions of pastoralist activities and state capacity to the observed effects provide insights into the mechanisms. Overall, the findings underscore the need for equitable water management strategies to mitigate conflict and promote sustainable development in Africa.

• "Dear Brothers and Sisters: Pope's Speeches and the Dynamics of Conflict in Africa" (with Mathieu Couttenier, Sophie Hatte and Tommaso Sonno)
  
  Public speeches by leaders can serve as a cost-effective tool for fostering peace, yet their effectiveness remains uncertain, particularly in divided societies experiencing violent conflict. This paper examines the impact of the Catholic Pope’s peace-promoting speeches on conflict dynamics in Africa. To investigate this, we construct a novel dataset covering all papal speeches explicitly addressing violent conflict events in Africa between 1997 and 2022. Using event-study methods, we find that papal speeches reduce overall conflict by 23% on average. However, these effects vary significantly depending on the Pope delivering the speech. While Pope John Paul II and Pope Francis’s speeches are associated with substantial reductions in conflict, Pope Benedict XVI’s speeches show no significant overall effect but are linked to increased battles and religious violence. We further explore four mechanisms driving these heterogeneous effects. First, the impact of papal speeches is significantly stronger in areas with a Catholic presence, where violence drops by up to 69%. Second, the effectiveness of a speech depends on the bishops’ ideological alignment with the Pope’s vision, with speeches delivered by a Pope who appointed the current bishop being 17% more effective. Third, political leaders play a crucial role in amplifying the Pope’s message, as violence significantly declines in birth regions of national leaders. Finally, the response of armed groups varies depending on their religious affiliation and prior history of violence.

Policy papers:

• "Beyond The Surface: Intersectionality of Gender and Underrepresentation in Water-Related Violence" (with Ebad Ebadi and Esha D. Zaveri)

This paper investigates the nexus between water fetching, gender-based violence (GBV), and underrepresented population in Africa. By analyzing individual-level data from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series-Demographic and Health Surveys (IPUMS-DHS), it is found that women responsible for water fetching experience increased risks of violence, particularly when traveling long distances to access water sources. In addition, the study explores the intersecting dynamics of gender and ethnicity, revealing that women from underrepresented groups face increased vulnerability to sexual violence, especially in regions with significant polarization. These findings underscore the multifaceted nature of water insecurity and its impacts on women’s safety and well-being, emphasizing the importance of addressing gender and ethnic disparities in water access to mitigate violence against women.

Work in progress:

• Job Market Paper - "Shaping the Narrative, Shaping the Response: Media content, public reactions, and policy around femicides"