Climate Holocaust and Climate Genocide.


This site documents authoritative opinions of leading climate scientists, climate economists, climate analysts and world figures who predict a massive  death toll from unaddressed, man-made global warming. Climate holocaust (huge numbers of deaths already from carbon burning and climate change) and climate genocide (huge numbers of deaths already from intentional carbon burning and climate change despite knowledge of the consequences) should be  key terms in the public discussion of the worsening climate emergency - but are not due to Mainstream media, politician and academic  lying by omission.

Presently over 7 million people die avoidably (prematurely) each year due to climate change or the effects carbon burning pollutants. Thus UN Population Division data (UN Population Division: http://esa.un.org/wpp/unpp/p2k0data.asp )  enable one to calculate that 17 million  people die avoidably (prematurely) each year (half of them children) due to poverty in the Developing World (minus China) (see Gideon Polya, “Body Count. Global avoidable mortality since 1950”, that includes a history of every country from Neolithic times and is now available for free perusal on the web: http://globalbodycount.blogspot.com/  ) .  The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that 7 million people die from the effects of  pollution each year (World Health Organization (WHO), “7 million premature deaths annually linked to air pollution”: http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/air-pollution/en/ ). The DARA 2012 Report commissioned by 20 countries states: “This report estimates that climate change causes 400,000 deaths on average each year today, mainly due to hunger and communicable diseases that affect above all children in developing countries. Our present carbon-intensive energy system and related activities cause an estimates 4.5 million deaths each year linked to air pollution , hazardous occupations and cancer… Continuing today’s patterns of carbon-intensive energy use is estimated, together with climate change, to cause 5 million deaths per year by 2030, close to 700,000 of which would be due to climate change. This implies that a combined climate-carbon crisis is estimated to claim 100 million lives between now and the end of the next decade. A significant share of the global population would be directly affected by inaction on climate change” (DARA, “Climate Vulnerability Monitor. A guide to the cold calculus of a hot planet”, 2012, Executive Summary pp2-3: http://daraint.org/climate-vulnerability-monitor/climate-vulnerability-monitor-2012/ and DARA report quoted by Reuters, ”100 mln to die by 2030 if world fails to act on climate”, 28 September 2012: http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/09/26/climate-inaction-idINDEE88P05P20120926 )]. As outlined below, as many as 10 billion people will die avoidably (prematurely)  this century  if man-made climate change is not requisitely addressed.


Both Dr James Lovelock FRS (Gaia hypothesis) and Professor Kevin Anderson ( Deputy Director, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester, UK) have recently estimated that only about 0.5 billion people will survive this century due to unaddressed, man-made global warming. 

Thus just before the 2009 Copenhagen summit, the Scotsman reported on Professor Anderson’s estimates of “only half a billion surviving” (see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_Anderson_%28scientist%29 ) : "Current Met Office projections reveal that the lack of action in the intervening 17 years – in which emissions of climate changing gases such as carbon dioxide have soared – has set the world on a path towards potential 4C rises as early as 2060, and 6C rises by the end of the century. Anderson, who advises the government on climate change, said the consequences were 'terrifying'. 'For humanity it's a matter of life or death,' he said. 'We will not make all human beings extinct as a few people with the right sort of resources may put themselves in the right parts of the world and survive. But I think it's extremely unlikely that we wouldn't have mass death at 4C. If you have got a population of nine billion by 2050 and you hit 4C, 5C or 6C, you might have half a billion people surviving'."

Dr James Lovelock FRS (top UK climate scientist, Fellow of the prestigious Royal Society, famous for his Gaia Hypothesis and atmospheric research): “If we can keep civilization alive through this century perhaps there is a chance that our descendants will one day serve Gaia and assist her in the fine-tuned self-regulation of the climate and composition of our planet. We have enjoyed 12,000 years of climate peace since the last shift from a glacial age to an interglacial one. Before long, we may face planet-wide devastation worse even than unrestricted nuclear war between superpowers. The climate war could kill nearly all of us and leave the few survivors living a Stone Age existence. But in several places in the world, including the U.K., we have a chance of surviving and even of living well. For that to be possible, we have to make our lifeboats seaworthy now ” (see: James Lovelock, “Climate war could kill nearly all of us, leaving survivors on the Stone Age”, Guardian, 29 June 2009: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/

Noting that the world population is expected to reach 9.5 billion by 2050 (UN Population Division) , these estimates translate to a climate genocide involving deaths of 10 billion people this century, this including roughly twice the present population of particular mainly non-European groups, specifically 6 billion under-5 year old infants, 3 billion Muslims in a terminal Muslim Holocaust, 2 billion Indians, 1.3 billion non-Arab Africans, 0.5 billion Bengalis, 0.3 billion Pakistanis and 0.3 billion Bangladeshis. [1].


Already 16 million people (about 9.5 million of them under-5 year old infants) die avoidably every year due to deprivation and deprivation-exacerbated disease – and man-made global warming is already clearly worsening this global avoidable mortality holocaust. However 10 billion avoidable deaths due to global warming this century yields an average annual avoidable death rate of 100 million per year. [2].


Collective, national responsibility for this already commenced Climate Holocaust is in direct proportion to per capita national pollution of the atmosphere with greenhouse gases (GHGs). Indeed, fundamental to any international agreement on national rights to pollute our common atmosphere and oceans should be the belief that “all men are created equal”. However reality is otherwise: “annual per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution” in units of “tonnes CO2-equivalent per person per year” (2005-2008 data) is 0.9 (Bangladesh), 0.9 (Pakistan), 2.2 (India), less than 3 (many African and Island countries), 3.2 (the Developing World), 5.5 (China), 6.7 (the World), 11 (Europe), 16 (the Developed World), 27 (the US) and 25 (Australia; or 89 in 2015 if Australia’s huge Exported CO2 pollution is included). [3, 4].


However there is also a past carbon pollution debt for carbon pollution from the start of the Industrial Revolution 2 centuries ago. European First World countries are responsible for about 73% of historical carbon pollution of the atmosphere from 1751-2006,with India, Japan and China contributing 2.5%, 3.9% and 8.2%, respectively. [5].


A further measure of responsibility into the future comes from proposals to limit GHG pollution put to the recent Copenhagen Climate Conference (COP15)  that was successfully sabotaged by 2 of the World’s worst per capita GHG polluters, Australia and the US, acting in collaboration with other major polluters.


The fairest plan at the Copenhagen Climate Conference (COP15) has been the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) proposal for "55% of 1990 levels by 2020 for Developed Countries" which means that Developed Countries’ per capita would go from 16 to 6.5 tonnes CO2-e per person per year  while Developing Countries would "in aggregate aim to achieve significant deviations  from baselines by 2020” i.e. less than a predicted 3.8 for the Developing World by 2020. [6].


The UN Draft Proposal is for a less just Developed 2020 per capita of 7.1- 8.9 from the present 16 but the US has proposed a 2020 per capita for itself of 12.4 from its current 27. [6].


The most unjust plan at Copenhagen comes from world's worst per capita GHG polluter, Australia, which has made a highly conditional best offer of "75% of 2000 value by 2020" which would mean that Australia's domestic per capita would go from 30 to 17.2 in 2020 and its domestic plus exported per capita would INCREASE 15%  from 54 to 62 tonnes CO2-e per person per year in 2020. [4, 6, 7].


Holocaust simply means death of a huge number of people as exampled by the WW2 Jewish Holocaust (5-6 million people killed, 1 in 6 dying from deprivation), the WW2 Holocaust in general (30 million Slavs, Jews and Gypsies killed), the WW2 Bengali Holocaust (6-7 million Indians deliberately starved to death by the British) and the 35 million Chinese killed associated with the Japanese occupation of China in the1930s and 1940s. [2].


However the definition of “genocide” by Article 2 of the UN Genocide Convention involves Assessment of “intent’ by those responsible and states “In the present Convention, genocide means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnic, racial or religious group, as such: a) Killing members of the group; b) Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group; c) Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part; d) Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group; e) Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.” [8].

“Intent” to commit mass murder is only rarely explicitly expressed. Thus British writer, patriot and genocidal racist  Charles Dickens expressed a desire to exterminate the Indian people after the so-called Indian Mutiny of 1857:: “I wish I were Commander in Chief over there [India]! I would address that Oriental character which must be powerfully spoken to, in something like the following placard, which should be vigorously translated into all native dialects, “I, The Inimitable, holding this office of mine, and firmly believing that I hold it by the permission of Heaven and not by the appointment of Satan, have the honor to inform you Hindoo gentry that it is my intention, with all possible avoidance of unnecessary cruelty and with all merciful swiftness of execution, to exterminate the Race from the face of the earth, which disfigured the earth with the late abominable atrocities [2,000 British killed in the 1857 Indian War of Independence aka the 1857 Indian Mutiny]”. [9].

In the event, the British killed an estimated 10 million Indians as reprisals for the so-called Indian Mutiny. [10, 11].

“Intent” in genocide can also be established by sustained, remorseless complicity in destruction (including forced removal of populations from Homelands) and mass avoidable death as exampled by Nazi German responsibility for the WW2 Genocide of Slavs, Jews and Gypsies (1939-1945) , Japanese responsibility for the Chinese Genocide of the 1930s and 1940s and British responsibility for the WW2 Bengali Genocide, 1943-1945. [12].

Sustained, remorseless “intent” to kill literally billions of non-Europeans through global warming is apparent in the sustained, remorseless pollution of the a atmosphere by the First World and by First World refusal at the disastrous 2009 Copenhagen Climate Change Conference to emplace legally-binding effective carbon pollution measures in the face of dire warnings from the world scientific community. [13].

Just as violent mass murder, mass paeodocide and genocide invite genocide trials before the International Criminal Court, so does remorseless commitment by the First World to climate holocaust and climate genocide. Indeed a formal complaint has been made to the International Criminal Court over Australian complicity in the ongoing Aboriginal Genocide (9,000 avoidable deaths annually out of an Indigenous Australian population of 0.5 million), Iraqi Genocide (4.4 million violent and non-violent excess deaths, 1990-2009), Afghan Genocide (4.5 million violent and non-violent excess deaths, 2001-2009) and Climate Genocide (10 billion predicted to die this century). [14].


This site represents a valuable resource for decent, civilized humanity – it  documents expert, authoritative opinions of leading climate scientists, climate economists, climate analysts and world figures who predict a massive, knowingly and deliberately caused  death toll from unaddressed, man-made global warming this century.


[1]. “Climate racism, climate injustice & climate genocide – Australia, US and EU sabotage Copenhagen COP15”: http://bellaciao.org/en/spip.php?article19422 .


[2]. Gideon Polya, “Body Count. Global avoidable mortality since 1950”, G.M. Polya, Melbourne, 2007; see: http://mwcnews.net/Gideon-Polya and http://globalbodycount.blogspot.com/  ).


[3]. “List of countries by greenhouse gas emissions per capita”: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_greenhouse_gas_emissions_per_capita .


[4]. “Climate justice & climate injustice: Australia wants a 2020 per capita GHG pollution 15 times greater than Developing World’s”: http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/climate-justice .


[5]. Letter to PM Rudd by Dr James Hansen (Head, NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies): http://www.aussmc.org.au/documents/Hansen2008LetterToKevinRudd_000.pdf .


[6]. “Copenhagen Greenhouse Gas reduction proposals - quantitative comparisons”: http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/copenhagen-greenhouse-gas-reduction-proposals---quantitative-comparisons .


[7]. “Climate racism, climate injustice & climate genocide – Australia, US and EU sabotage Copenhagen COP15”: http://bellaciao.org/en/spip.php?article19422 .


[8]. UN Genocide Convention: http://www.edwebproject.org

[9]. Grace Moore (2004), Dicken and the Empire. Discourses of class, race, and colonialism in the works of Charles Dickens” (Ashgate Publishing, Aldershot, UK): http://www.amazon.com/Dickens-Empire-Discourses-Colonialism-Nineteenth/dp/glanceands=books/0754634124  and http://books.google.com.au/books?id=ZUxw0x84cGwC&pg=PA94&lpg=PA94&dq=exterminate+dickens+%22

[10]. Gideon Polya, “UK BBC holocaust denial”, Countercurrents, : http://www.countercurrents.org/polya240509.htm .

[11]. Amaresh Misra, “War of Civilizations: India AD 1857”, Volume I, “The Road to Delhi” & Volume II, “The Long Revolution” (2008) RUPA, India).

[12]. Dr Gideon Polya, Professor Amartya Sen, Dr Sanjoy Bhattacharya et al., BBC (2008), The things we forgot to remember. The Bengal Famine:: http://www.open2.net/thingsweforgot/bengalfamine_programme.html ).

[13]. “Copenhagen: “Imperial” climate deal rejected by poor-country delegates”, LINKS, 19 December 2009: http://links.org.au/node/1418 .

[14]. Formal complaint to the Chief Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court re Australian Government involvement in Aboriginal Genocide, Iraqi Genocide, Afghan Genocide and Climate Genocide: http://climateemergency.blogspot.com/2008_02_01_archive.html .

Some useful compendia about climate change information, requisite actions & expert opinions:


 “2011 climate change course”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/2011-climate-change-course .

300.org: . https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/300-org .

“300.org – return atmosphere CO2 to 300 ppm CO2”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/300-org---return-atmosphere-co2-to-300-ppm .

“Carbon Debt Carbon Credit”: https://sites.google.com/site/carbondebtcarboncredit/ .

"Climate Revolution Now": https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/climate-revolution .

“Cut carbon emissions 80% by 2020”: https://sites.google.com/site/cutcarbonemissions80by2020/ .

“100% renewable energy by 2020”: https://sites.google.com/site/100renewableenergyby2020/ .

“Climate Genocide”: https://sites.google.com/site/climategenocide/ .

“Gas is not clean energy”: https://sites.google.com/site/gasisnotcleanenergy/ .

 “Biofuel Genocide”: https://sites.google.com/site/biofuelgenocide/ .

“Divest from fossil fuels”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/divest-from-fossil-fuels .

“Climate Justice & Intergenerational Equity”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/climate-justice .

“Science & economics experts: Carbon Tax needed NOT Carbon Trading”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/sciennce-economics-experts-carbon-tax-needed-not-carbon-trading/ .

“Stop air pollution deaths”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/stop-air-pollution-deaths .

“Stop climate crime”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/stop-climate-crime .

“Are we doomed?”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/are-we-doomed .

“Nuclear weapons ban , end poverty & reverse climate change”: https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/nuclear-weapons-ban .

"Too late to avoid global warming catastrophe": https://sites.google.com/site/300orgsite/too-late-to-avoid-global-warming .



Some key analyses by Dr Gideon Polya (Melbourne scientist):


Gideon Polya, “Expert Witness Testimony To Stop Gas-Fired Power Plant Installation”, Countercurrents,  14 June, 2013: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya140613.htm .

Gideon Polya,  " Doha climate change inaction. Only 5 years left to act", MWC News, 9 December 2012: http://mwcnews.net/focus/analysis/23373-gideonpolya-climate-change.html .

Gideon Polya, “Australia 's Huge Coal, Gas & Iron Ore Exports Threaten Planet”, Countercurrents, 15 May 2012: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya150512.htm .

Gideon Polya, “Country By Country Analysis Of Years Left Until Science-demanded Zero Greenhouse Gas Emissions”, Countercurrents, 11 June 2011: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya110611.htm

Gideon Polya , “2015 A-to-Z  Alphabetical List Of Actions And Advocacies For Climate Change Activists”,  Countercurrents,  14 January, 2015: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya140115.htm

Gideon Polya, “100 Ideas For Climate Change Activists Trying To Save The Biosphere And Humanity”,  Countercurrents, 10 August, 2013: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya100813.htm .

Gideon Polya, “Biochemical  Targets Of Plant Bioactive Compounds”: moral & utilitarian reasons to stop ecocide, speciescide, omnicide & terracide”, Countercurrents, 22 February, 2015: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya220215.htm .

“Climate change articles by Dr Gideon Polya”: https://sites.google.com/site/drgideonpolya/climate-change-articles .

“Climate change websites created by Dr Gideon Polya”: https://sites.google.com/site/drgideonpolya/climate-change-websites .

“Gideon Polya”: https://sites.google.com/site/drgideonpolya/home .

Carbon Debt:

Carbon Debt reflects the inescapable future cost in today's dollars of fixing the remorselessly increasing climate damage. Carbon Debt  is the historical contribution of countries  to the carbon pollution of the atmosphere and can be variously expressed as Gt CO2-e (gigatonnes or billions of tonnes of CO2-equivalent) or in dollar terms by applying a Carbon Price. Thus leading climate economist Dr Chris Hope from 90-Nobel-Laureate Cambridge  University has estimated a damage-related Carbon Price in US dollars of $150 per tonne CO2-e (see Dr Chris Hope, “How high should climate change taxes be?”, Working Paper Series, Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, 9.2011: http://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/user_upload/research/workingpapers/wp1109.pdf  ).

The World added 350 Gt C (1285 Gt CO2) to the atmosphere in 1751-2006 (see James Hansen, “Letter to PM Kevin Rudd by Dr James Hansen”, 2008: http://www.aussmc.org.au/documents/Hansen2008LetterToKevinRudd_000.pdf ) and currently adds a further 64 Gt CO2-e annually (see Robert Goodland and Jeff Anfang, “Livestock and climate change. What if the key actors in climate change are … cows, pigs and chickens?”, World Watch, November/December 2009: http://www.worldwatch.org/files/pdf/Livestock%20and%20Climate%20Change.pdf ).

The World  has a 1751-2006 Carbon Debt of     350 Gt C x (3.67 Gt CO2/Gt C) x $150 per tonne CO2-e = $193 trillion plus a 2007-2015 Carbon Debt of (64 Gt CO2-e /year) x  ($150 /t CO2-e) x 8 years  = $76.8 trillion or a total 1751-2015 Carbon Debt of $270 trillion (about 3 times the annual world GDP of $85 trillion)  that is increasing by about 64 Gt CO2-e/year  x ($150 /t CO2-e)  = $9.6 trillion/year or about $10 trillion each year.

By way of a national example, Australia is a world-leading annual per capita  GHG polluter with a 1751-2006 Carbon Debt of 5.9 Gt C x (3.67 Gt CO2-e/Gt C) x ($150 /t CO2-e) = $3.2 trillion plus a 2007-2015 Carbon Debt of  2 Gt CO2-e/year  x ($150 /t CO2-e) x 8 years  = $2.4 trillion i.e. a total 1751-2015 Carbon Debt of $5.6 trillion (A$7.2 trillion) that is increasing at 2 Gt CO2-e /year x ($150 /t CO2-e) = $300 billion (A$385 billion) per year. Thus Australia (population 24 million) with 0.34% of the world's population has 2.1% of the world's Carbon Debt. The Australian Carbon Debt will have to be paid by the young and future generations and for under-30 year old Australians is increasing at about $30,000 (A$38,500) per person per year, noting that the annual Australian per capita income is about $65,000 (A$83,000) (see Gideon Polya, “2015 A-to-Z  alphabetical list of actions and advocacies for climate change activists”,  Countercurrents, 14 January, 2015: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya140115.htm ).