Professor Kevin Anderson is the Director, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester, UK. Professor Anderson, together with Dr Alice Bows wrote an extremely important paper describing 6-8% annual GHG emissions reductions needed for 450 ppm CO2-equivalent (CO2-e): “According to the analysis conducted in this paper, stabilizing at 450 ppmv [carbon dioxide equivalent = CO2-e, atmospheric concentration measured in parts per million by volume] requires, at least, global energy related emissions to peak by 2015, rapidly decline at 6-8% per year between 2020 and 2040, and for full decarbonization sometime soon after 2050 …Unless economic growth can be reconciled with unprecedented rates of decarbonization (in excess of 6% per year), it is difficult to envisage anything other than a planned economic recession being compatible with stabilization at or below 650 ppmv CO2-e ... Ultimately, the latest scientific understanding of climate change allied with current emissions trends and a commitment to “limiting average global temperature increases to below 4oC above pre-industrial levels”, demands a radical reframing of both the climate change agenda, and the economic characterization of contemporary society” (see: Kevin Anderson & Alice Bows, “Reframing the climate change challenge in light of post-2000 emission trends”, Proc. Trans. Roy. Soc, A, 2008: http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/publications/journal_papers/fulltext.pdf ; Gideon Polya, “Good and bad climate news”, Green Blog, 2009: http://www.green-blog.org/2009/01/13/good-and-bad-climate-news/ ; and George Monbiot, “One shot left”, Monbiot.com (also published in the UK Guardian, 2008): http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2008/11/25/one-shot-left/ ).
Professor Kevin Anderson (2011): “A [plus] 4°C future [relative to pre-industrial levels] is incompatible with an organized global community, is likely to be beyond ‘adaptation’, is devastating to the majority of ecosystems, and has a high probability of not being stable” (Anderson, K. (2011) “Going beyond dangerous climate change: Exploring the void between rhetoric and reality in reducing carbon emissions”, LSE presentation, 11 July 2011, http://www.slideshare.net/DFID/professor-kevin-anderson-climate-change-going-beyond-dangerous ).
Professor Kevin Anderson (2009): ““If you have got a population of nine billion by 2050 and you hit 4°C, 5°C or 6°C, you might have half a billion people surviving” (Kevin Anderson quoted in J. Fyall, “Warming will ‘wipe out billions”, The Scotsman, 29 November 2009, archived at http://www.webcitation.org/5ul6K9Jmt?url=http://news.scotsman.com/latestnews/Warming-will-39wipe-out-billions39.5867379.jp and in Ian Dunlop and David Spratt, “Disaster Alley climate change conflict & risk”, Breakthrough, 2017: https://uploads.guim.co.uk/2017/06/20/ACFrOgDkCYAvFeJ9d4YxhOlZiOHNkTOnWbkhlY_dX8kl_O3ChbGcEmWsbUNrOnJUwE4SNWFvzB7RM6w4GsF0pDwdnREIip-k5J-03TQc0Op4FWrsNcZpjXAuy7NNJ_Y=.pdf ).
Professor Kevin Anderson on how many will survive the century in a “terrifying prospect” (November 2009): “For humanity it's a matter of life or death. We will not make all human beings extinct as a few people with the right sort of resources may put themselves in the right parts of the world and survive. But I think it's extremely unlikely that we wouldn't have mass death at 4C. If you have got a population of nine billion by 2050 and you hit 4C, 5C or 6C, you might have half a billion people surviving… The worst possible result at Copenhagen is a bad deal where the world leaders have to come home and say it's a good deal when its rubbish. That's the real danger – that they will feel under pressure to sign up to anything. That could lock us into something bad for the next ten years." [1].
[1]. Professor Kevin Anderson quoted by Jenny Fyall, “Warming “will wipe out billions””, The Scotsman, 29 November 2009: http://news.scotsman.com/latestnews/Warming-will-39wipe-out-billions39.5867379.jp .
Kevin Anderson (Tyndall Centre, University of Manchester, UK) predicting climate famine (2011): “[Slide 21] There is a widespread view that a 4oC future is incompatible with an organised global community, is likely to be beyond “adaptation”, is devastating to the majority of ecosystems & has a high probability of not being stable (i.e. 4oC would be an interim temperature [rise] on the way to a much higher equilibrium level). Consequently… 4oC should be avoided at “all’ costs… [Slide 28] In low latitudes 4oC gives a 40% reduction in maize and rice as population heads toward 9 billion by 2050… [Slide 60] 2oC stabilization is virtually impossible … 4oC by 2050-2070 looks “likely” (could be earlier & on the way to 6oC +)… [Slide 61] So where does this leave us? Manchester Mandate: mitigate for 2oC, plan for 4oC, Bows’ reflection: mitigate for 4oC, plan for 2oC… we’re heading for the worst of all worlds” (Kevin Anderson, “Climate change: going beyond dangerous ,,, brutal numbers & tenuous hope or cognitive dissonance?”, 11 July 2011: https://www.slideshare.net/DFID/professor-kevin-anderson-climate-change-going-beyond-dangerous ).
Kevin Anderson (2009): "For humanity it's a matter of life or death. We will not make all human beings extinct as a few people with the right sort of resources may put themselves in the right parts of the world and survive. But I think it's extremely unlikely that we wouldn't have mass death at 4C. If you have got a population of nine billion by 2050 and you hit 4C, 5C or 6C, you might have half a billion people surviving" (Kevin Anderson quoted in Jenny Fyall “Warming will wipe out billions”, Conservative Underground, 20 November 2009: http://www.conservativeunderground.com/forum505/showthread.php?22139-Warming-will-wipe-out-billions and in Renfrey Clarke, “Climate change: when scientists become revolutionaries”, Green Left Weekly, 17 January 2014: https://www.greenleft.org.au/content/climate-change-when-scientists-become-revolutionaries ).
Professor Kevin Anderson (director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change) (2009): “For humanity it’s a matter of life or death. We will not make all human beings extinct as a few people with the right sort of resources may put themselves in the right parts of the world and survive. But I think it’s extremely unlikely that we wouldn’t have mass death at 4°C. If you have got a population of nine billion by 2050 and you hit 4°C, 5°C or 6°C, you might have half a billion people surviving” (Kevin Anderson quoted in Jenny Fyal, “Warming will “wipe out billions””, The Scotsman, 29 November 2009: https://www.webcitation.org/5ul6K9Jmt?url=http://news.scotsman.com/latestnews/Warming-will-39wipe-out-billions39.5867379.jp ).