International Foresight Workshop on Arctic Sea-Ice Change

Arctic Sea-Ice Change: Insights into near-future changes in Arctic sea-ice biogeochemistry and associated ecosystems

Davos, June 15-­17, 2018

Background: Sea ice is one of the largest and most dynamic ecosystems on Earth, covering ~10% of the ocean and harbouring, in some locations, standing crops similar to productive oceanic regions. In addition to affecting climate through physical feedbacks, sea ice plays a significant but still poorly understood role in the biogeochemical dynamics of the polar oceans. Arctic sea-­‐ice volume and extent are decreasing at an alarming rate and faster than the mean of climate projections. In addition, the nature of sea ice is changing. Yet the magnitude of these changes and their biogeochemical and ecological consequences are neither fully explored, nor described and quantified. This workshop aims to: 1) Summarize existing knowledge of changes for a number of selected physical and biogeochemical variables and parameters, representative of the sea-­‐ice ecosystem; 2) Make a first tentative analysis of the effects of the predicted changes in the sea-­‐ice horizon on the Arctic ecosystem. 3) To generate an accessible description of future changes in sea-­‐ice biogeochemistry to focus scientific efforts, raise public awareness and facilitate climate policy making.

Program: The workshop will consist of three plenary sessions organised around specific parameters, followed by parallel discussion groups: Session 1: Impact of sea-­‐ice changes on physico-­‐chemical parameters (nutrients, light, water column stratification). Session 2: Impact of sea-­‐ice change on sea-­‐ice biota (from primary production to fish). Session 3: Impact of sea-­‐ice change on climate-­‐active gases (CO2 including ocean acidification, CH4, DMS, O2, VOCs).

Venue: The workshop is one of the side meetings preceding the IASC/SCAR POLAR2018 open-­‐science conference in Davos (http://www.polar2018.org). The venue will be the Davos Congress Centre (http://www.davoscongress.ch). The foresight workshop will be organized in conjunction with the annual meeting of the BEPSII (Biogeochemical Exchange Processes at Sea‐Ice Interfaces) science community and the ECV-ice annual meeting.

Participation: The discussions will be prepared in dedicated subgroups in advance of the meeting. If you want to get involved contact one of the below organizers. The workshop itself is free of charge for participants; a limited number of travel grants are available on a need-­‐base. The total number of participants in the workshop is limited to 50. If you wish to participate, please send an email to Jacqueline Stefels (j.stefels@rug.nl). You will also need to sign-­‐in on the BEPSII side meeting at Polar2018. Contact: Jacqueline Stefels (j.stefels@rug.nl), Letizia Tedesco (Letizia.Tedesco@ymparisto.fi), Delphine Lannuzel (delphine.lannuzel@utas.edu.au)

Participants are welcome to present themselves during a one-minute pitch with ONE slide with your name, affiliation, scientific interest and your Foresight Statement. That means: How do you think future reduced Arctic sea ice will impact on the parameter you know most about. (e.g.: “I predict primary production will be reduced by 80% because all nutrients will be consumed” or: "I predict primary production will double because of increased irradiance”). If possible illustrated with one figure; either data from your own science or a figure that you find particularly inspiring.

Please send the slide to Letizia Tedesco BEFORE Wednesday the 13th: Letizia.Tedesco@ymparisto.fi. You will be asked to present your slide in alphabetic order.

Meeting agenda

The workshop is funded by the Euromarine Network.