這是你開始交易的第一個階段。
由於耳聞了眾多百萬富翁的傳奇故事，你知道「交易」是一個能賺大錢的買賣。
不幸的是，這就像是你準備學開車，你會想那是多容易呀！終究，那會有什麼難的呢?
價格不是上就是下，難不成背後會蘊藏著什麼內幕嗎？嗯，讓我來破解它吧！
This is the first step you take when starting to look into trading. You know that its a good way of making money because you've heard so many things about it and heard of so many millionaires. Unfortunately, just like when you first desire to drive a car you think it will be easy - after all, how hard can it be? Price either moves up or down - what's the big secret to that then – let’s get cracking!
不幸的是，就像你第一次坐在方向盤前，你很快就發現你根本不知道應該怎麼開始。
你開始不停地交易、不停地承擔著眾多的風險。
有時你一進場，市場就反向運行，於是你又反向做單。
「靠！怎麼又反向了」，你再反向…再反向…再反向…
Unfortunately, just as when you first take your place in front of a steering wheel you find very quickly that you haven't got the first clue about what you're trying to do. You take lots of trades and lots of risks. When you enter a trade it turns against you, so you reverse and it turns again and again, and again.
可能你一開始還做得很好，不過這反而更糟 –– 因為，這告訴你的大腦：「交易實在太簡單了」，然後你開始「隨心所欲」了，結果賠得更慘。
You may have initial success, and that's even worse - cos it tells your brain that this really is simple and you start to risk more money.
出現虧損時，你就試圖要扳回來，每次都加倍下注。有時，你僥幸地贏了回來，但更多的時間卻是損手爛腳。
這時，你已經完全忘記你對「交易」還是一個新手。
You try to turn around your losses by doubling up every time you trade. Sometimes you'll get away with it but more often than not you will come away scathed and bruised. You are totally oblivious to your incompetence at trading.
這個階段通常會持續一到兩個星期，時光易逝，很快你就進入到第二個階段。
This step can last for a week or two of trading but the market is usually swift and you move on the next stage.
在這個階段，你認識到要更好地交易賺錢還有些工作要做。
你意識到你還是一個不合格的交易員，「我還缺少真正可以獲利的技術。」
Step two is where you realize that there is more work involved in trading and that you might actually have to work a few things out. You consciously realize that you are an incompetent trader - you don't have the skills or the insight to turn a regular profit.
於是你開始在圖表裡設置各種「交易系統」，讀了一堆電子書，
到處瀏覽網頁–從美國到烏克蘭的網站都給你看過了。
這時，你開始探索一套自己的「必殺技」 (holy grail，聖盃)。
You now set about buying systems and e-books galore, read websites based everywhere from USA to the Ukraine and begin your search for the holy grail. During this time you will be a system nomad - you will flick from method to method day by day and week by week never sticking with one long enough to actually see if it does work. Every time you come upon a new indicator you'll be ecstatic that this is the one that will make all the difference.
你變成了一個「系統交易狂」，一天天、一週週地從這個方法到那個方法地試，
不過，你卻從未花足夠多的時間去檢驗這個系統是否真正可行。
每次你得到一個新的指標你就會欣喜若狂，「這個指標完全不同呀！」
你將 MetaTrader 裡的所有自動交易系統都測試過了，
你開始玩「均 線」、什麼「菲波納奇線」、什麼「支撐阻力線」、MACD、KDJ…弄了幾百種指標，
夢想著你的「魔法系統」今天就可以誕生。
You will test out automated systems on MetaTrader, you'll play with moving averages, Fibonacci lines, support & resistance, Pivots, Fractals, Divergence, DMI, ADX, and a hundred other things all in the vein hope that your 'magic system' starts today.
你成了一個「抄底摸頂」 的「大師」，用你的指標去找市場反轉的精確點位。
盡管你發現你還在輸錢，但你還是堅持不懈地「找、找、找」，因為你堅信你的做法是正確的。
You'll be a top and bottom picker, trying to find the exact point of reversal with your indicators and you'll find yourself chasing losing trades and even adding to them because you are so sure you are right.
你開始跑去聊天室、論壇，
你看到有些交易員可以賺到錢，
你很想知道「那為什麼不是我？」。
你會問很多很多問題，有些問題你事後想起來覺得還有點笨。
你很快成為了一個懷疑論者，「那些喊單的家伙都是騙子」，
他們不可能賺那麼多，因為你也已經「學了」，
但是你卻做不到，「嗯，他們是騙子，是托兒」。
(托兒，北京方言，《現代漢語詞典》是這樣解釋的：指從旁誘人受騙上當的人。)
不過，他們天天在那裡而且帳戶在增長，而你卻還在經歷失敗。
You'll go into the live chat room and see other traders making pips and you want to know why it's not you - you'll ask a million questions, some of which are so dumb that looking back you feel a bit silly. You'll then reach the point where you think all the ones who are calling pips after pips are liars - they can’t be making that amount because you've studied and you don't make that, you know as much as they do and they must be lying. But they're in there day after day and their account just grows whilst yours falls.
就像對一個無知的十幾歲的少年，
那些能賺錢的交易員會免費地給你建議，
但你卻固執 地認為你知道的是最好的。
你完全不在意別人的意見，而且開始過度交易，盡管其他人都說你很瘋狂。
你開始考慮跟別人的「喊單」，不過，結果很糟。
因此，你準備從某些網站、大師那裡買一些「交易信號」，不過，這對你還是不管用。
You will be like a teenager - the traders that make money will freely give you advice but you're stubborn and think that you know best - you take no notice and overtrade your account even though everyone says you are mad to - but you know better. You'll consider following the calls that others make but even then it wont work so you try paying for signals from someone else - they don't work for you either.
你可能還會在論壇上找一個「大師」來跟著他操作，
這個大佬「保證」會將你改造成一個真正的操盤手 (當然，通常這種「保證」是要收費的)。
不論這個「大師」是真的好，還是假的好，你還是沒法贏錢，因為時機不對，你仍然認為你知道的是最好的。
You might even approach a 'guru' like Rob Booker or someone on a chat board who promises to make you into a trader (usually for a fee of course). Whether the guru is good or not you won’t win because there is no replacement for screen time and you still think you know best.
這個階段可能會持續數年，
事實上，在現實中的交談中發現，這個階段會至少持續1年，一般情況下接近3年的時間。
經過無數的打擊，通常你在這個階段是最容易放棄“交易”的。
This step can last ages and ages - in fact in reality talking with other traders as well as personal experience confirms that it can easily last well over a year and more nearer 3 years. This is also the step when you are most likely to give up through sheer frustration.
大約 60% 的新手在前 3個月就退出比賽了–他們放棄了，不過這也不失為好事。
試想一下，如果「交易」是一件容易的事，我們都成百萬富翁了。
另外剩下的 20% 在堅持了一年後，在理所當然的暴倉下也繳械投降了。
Around 60% of new traders die out in the first 3 months - they give up and this is good - think about it - if trading was easy we would all be millionaires. another 20% keep going for a year and then in desperation take risks guaranteed to blow their account which of course it does.
可能會令你驚奇的是最後剩下的 20% 的人會堅持 3年之久，他們會想「我能夠在水中安全的游泳了」。
不過，就算經歷了 3年，也只有 5-10% 的人能真正地堅持下來，而且他們開始持續地賺錢了。
What may surprise you is that of the remaining 20% all of them will last around 3 years - and they will think they are safe in the water - but even at 3 years only a further 5-10% will continue and go on to actually make money consistently.
順帶一提，這些都是真實的資料，不是在我的腦海裡憑空想象出來的。
所以，就算你真的玩了這個游戲 3年，你也不要真的以為你可以如履平地。
By the way - they are real figures, not just some I’ve picked out of my head - so when you get to 3 years in the game don’t think its plain sailing from there.
有很多人跟我爭論過這些「時間之窗」–– 有趣的是他們中沒一個人交易超過 3年 –– 不信你可以在論壇上隨便找一個交易了 5年以上的人問問他多久才開始 100% 地精通。
我猜肯定有人超越這個「時間之窗」，不過，我真的還沒見過。
I’ve heard many people argue with me about these timescales - funny enough none of them have been trading for more that 3 years - if you think you know better then ask on a board for someone who's been trading 5 years and ask them how long it takes to become fully 100% proficient. Sure i guess there will be exceptions to the rle - but i haven't met any yet.
終於，你準備從這個階段出師了。
這時，可能你已經花了比你想像中更多的時間和金錢，爆了2到3個倉，曾經有 3-4 次想放棄了.
不過，這時「交易」已經深深地溶入了你的血液之中。
Eventually you do begin to come out of this phase. You've probably committed more time and money than you ever thought you would, lost 2 or 3 loaded accounts and all but given up maybe 3 or 4 times but now its in your blood.
某一天，在某個瞬間，你突然進入到了第三個階段。
One day – In a split second moment you will enter stage 3.
在第二個階段的後期，你開始認識到不是「交易系統」導致不同的結果。
你意識到其實可能一條簡單的移動平均線就可以賺錢了，只要你的心態和資金管理正確的話。
你開始讀一些交易心理學方面的書，將書裡描繪的角色跟自己進行對號入座。
Towards the end of stage two you begin to realize that it's not the system that is making the difference. You realize that its actually possible to make money with a simple moving average and nothing else IF you can get your head and money management right You start to read books on the psychology of trading and identify with the characters portrayed in those books and finally comes the eureka moment.
然後，「頓悟」就出現了。
「頓悟」好像將你頭腦裡的兩條筋給連了起來。
你突然認識到，不單是你，而是所有的人都無法精確地預測到下一個 10秒市場會怎麼走，更別說下一個 20分鐘了。
因為這個新發現，你停止去關注其他人在想什麼了–「主力」在這個資料公布後將怎麼搞，那個事件會導致什麼變化…
This eureka moment causes a new connection to be made in your brain. You suddenly realise that neither you, nor anyone else can accurately predict what the market will do in the next ten seconds, never mind the next 20 mins.
Because of this revelation you stop taking any notice of what anyone thinks - what this news item will do, and what that event will do to the markets. You become an individual with your own method of trading
你成為了一個按照自己交易方法交易的「獨立人」。
你開始按照你自己的交易方式和交易方法來工作，現在你變得快樂交易了，而且風險也在你的掌控之中。
You start to work just one system that you mould to your own way of trading, you're starting to get happy and you define your risk threshold.
你開始用你的這把「快刀」來操作，抓住每一個可能盈利的好機會。
當你的部位變壞時，你也不生氣了，甚至你會覺得「這不是我的錯，我不可能預測市場」。
當你覺得你的部位不好時，你只是簡單地平倉了事。
「下一次、再下一次或者再下下一次將會有越來越高的成功可能」，因為你知道你的交易系統是可行的。
You start to take every trade that your 'edge' shows has a good probability of winning with. When the trade turns bad you don't get angry or even because you know in your head that as you couldn't possibly predict it it isn't your fault - as soon as you realize that the trade is bad you close it . The next trade or the one after it or the one after that will have higher odds of success because you know your system works.
你停止用一單交易一單交易的角度來看交易的結果，你開始以每周的角度來看交易報表，「嗯，一單不好的交易並不是差勁的交易系統造成的。」
You stop looking at trading results from a trade-to-trade perspective and start to look at weekly figures knowing that one bad trade does not a poor system make.
你終於認識到「交易遊戲」，是在做一件事：持續不斷地使用你的「快刀」、遵守你自己的交易紀律，而不管你的喜好是什麼。
You have realised in an instant that the trading game is about one thing - consistency of your 'edge' and your discipline to take all the trades no matter what as you know the probabilities stack in your favour.
你學習到了正確的資金管理和槓桿的使用，而這時它們已經與你融為一體。
你回想早在很久以前就有人這麼建議你時，你臉上浮出一絲微笑，「那時我還年輕，現在我理解了。」
「頓悟」出現在你真正接受你無法預測市場的那一瞬間。
You learn about proper money management and leverage - risk of account etc etc - and this time it actually soaks in and you think back to those who advised the same thing a year ago with a smile. You weren't ready then, but you are now. The eureka moment came the moment that you truly accepted that you cannot predict the
market.
你的交易系統告訴你什麼，你就做什麼。你接受虧損就像你接受獲利一樣。
你現在會讓你的獲利單放飛了。
接受「虧損」和知道你的交易系統將會帶來比損失更多的獲利，當出現虧損單時，你隨手就平倉了，
「這只不過是給我的帳戶帶來些微的陣痛而已」。
You are making trades whenever your system tells you to. You take losses just as easily as you take wins You now let your winners run to their conclusion fully accepting the risk and knowing that your system makes more money than it looses and when you're on a loser you close it swiftly with little pain to your account.
大多數時間，你處於盈虧平衡的拉鋸狀態，
今天贏明天輸，有時這個星期贏 100點，然後下個星期輸 100點，
通常你都是處於盈虧平衡狀態而不會虧大錢。
這時你知道你總的來說應該算是「好的交易員」了，而且你開始獲得論壇的其他人的尊敬。
你仍然在繼續研究和思考你的交易，但在這個過程中，你的獲利已經持續地多於虧損。
You are now at a point where you break even most of the time - day in day out, you will have weeks where you make 100 pips and weeks where you lose 100 pips - generally you are breaking even and not losing money. You are now conscious of the fact that you are making calls that are generally good and you are getting respect from other traders as you chat the day away. You still have to work at it and think about your trades but as this continues you begin to make more money than you lose consistently.
這天，你開始就贏了20點，過後卻輸了35點，
但你對這種回吐已經完全沒有什麼感覺了，因為你知道他們又會回來的。
你開始每週持續地獲利了，這週賺25點，下週50點…
You'll start the day on a 20 pip win, take a 35 pip loss and have no feelings that you've given those pips back because you know that it will come back again. You will now begin to make consistent pips week in and week out 25 pips one week, 50 the next and so on.
這個階段將會持續6個月。
This lasts about 6 months
你「搞定」了！
就像開車，每天你坐進你的座位和交易–你達到了一種「行雲流水」的水準，就像你坐在自動導航的車上一樣。
你開始做真正的「大買賣」了，1天獲利200點，不過不會比獲利1點更加興奮。
Now we’re cooking - just like driving a car, every day you get in your seat and trade - you do everything now on an unconscious level. You are running on autopilot. You start to pick the really big trades and getting 200 pips in a day doesn't make you any more excited that getting 1 pips.
當你在論壇上看到有新手在大叫「錢來呀！錢來呀」，就像他們騎著好馬贏得大滿貫比賽一樣，
這時你好像看見了自己，不過這已經是幾年前的自己了。
You see the newbies in the forum shouting 'go dollar go' as if they are urging on a horse to win in the grand national and you see yourself - but many years ago now.
這時，你已經進入了交易的「烏托邦」境界，
你能控制你的情緒，而且你是一個真正的「操盤手」–– 一個日進斗金的操盤手。
This is trading utopia - you have mastered your emotions and you are now a trader with a rapidly growing account.
你成了論壇呀、聊天室呀的明星，每個人都想聽一聽你要說什麼。
你從他們的問題中看到了2年前的自己。
你發表你的建議，不過，你知道講了也沒什麼用，「他們還是小孩」
但他們中有人會成為你的，有些人會快些，有些人慢些
當然，我們知道大多數的他們無法進入第二個階段，但肯定會有的。
You're a star in the trading chat room and people listen to what you say. You recognise yourself in their questions from about two years ago. You pass on your advice but you know most of it is futile because they're teenagers - some of them will get to where you are - some will do it fast and others will be slower - literally dozens and dozens will never get past stage two, but a few will.
「交易」現在變得不那麼令人興奮了，事實上，你還覺得有點兒悶。
就像世間的其他事情一樣，你就算做得很好你也得繼續做下去，
「開始有點悶了，不過，這是給自己打工。真的，就是這樣。」
Trading is no longer exciting - in fact it's probably boring you to bits - like everything in life when you get good at it or do it for your job - it gets boring - you're doing your job and that's that.
最後，你從聊天室裡找了幾個志同道合的人討論市場，但這時已經變成了純粹的技術探討，大家都不會互相影響了。
Finally you grow out of the chat rooms and find a few choice people who you converse with about the markets without being influenced at all.
你潛心磨煉出來你的交易系統，它給你帶來了最大的利潤而風險並無增加。
你的交易方法沒有改變–只是變得更好，現在，你擁有了美眉經常說的一種能力：「直覺」！
All the time you are honing your methods to extract the maximum profit from the market without increasing risk. Your method of trading doesn’t change - it just gets better - you now have what women call 'intuition'.
你現在能大聲地說，「我是一個操盤手了！！」，
不過，謙虛的你覺得沒有必要告訴任何人，
「這只是一份工作而已。」
You can now say with your head held high "I'm a currency trader" but to be honest you don’t even bother telling anyone - it's a job like any other.
我希望你能樂於閱讀這篇成為交易者的旅程，而且也希望你能有所收穫。
I hope you’ve enjoyed reading this journey into a traders mind and that hopefully you’ve identified with some points in here.
也請記住只有 5% 的人可以真的達成，但與能力無關，而是你願意改變與否。
Remember that only 5% will actually make it - but the reason for that isn’t ability, its staying power and the ability to change your perceptions and paradigms as new information comes available.
失敗者希望「賺快錢」，但會失望的。
假如你正考慮放棄，請聽我的一個小忠告。
問問你自己，「要花多少年才能拿到大學文憑，那想要在一年中賺進大筆的錢，該花多少時間呢?」
加油，也祝你好運!
The losers are those who wanted to 'get rich quick' but approached the market and within 6 months put on a pair of blinkers so they couldn’t see the obvious - a kind of "this is the way I see it and that's that" scenario - refusing to assimilate new information that changes that perception.
I’m happy to tell you that the reason I started trading was because of the 'get rich quick' mindset. Just that now I see it as 'get rich slow'.
If you’re thinking about giving up I have one piece of advice for you ....
Ask yourself the question "how many years would you go to college if you knew for a fact that there was a million dollars a year job at the end of it?"
Take care and good trading to you all.
原作者不詳，若有知悉者，請告知 !!
I left of the name of the author of this piece by mistake. If anyone knows the name of the true author, please let me know and I'll add it here. Thanks and sorry for the confusion.
Dial
註:
position，應該邏為 "頭寸"，還是譯為 "部位" ，有人說在民初，銀行裡用於日常支付的“袁大頭”，十個袁大頭疊起來剛好是一寸，因此叫“頭寸”，不過，這位短命的皇帝的影響力也太長遠了吧，而且，交易中和袁大頭一起都沒關係，叫 "部位" 和倉位，還是較明瞭些。