They say the market trends about 15% of the time and 85% of the time it is moving sideways or consolidating
Time frame continuity is finding multiple timeframes from the lowest to several larger time frames (10MIN, 1HR, 4HR, D, W, M, Y) moving in the same direction
Since the market only trends about 15% of the time on the larger time frame, our goal is to find short term trends that can yield positive results
When we can align the direction of the 10MIN, 1HR, 4HR, D we can often find a good runner that will last for the duration of the day and sometimes for several days
In other cases, we may only be able to align the 10MIN and 1HR. While this still may offer a nice a move, it is important to note that the less time frames you have in the same direction, the less likely it will continue to rise
Below is a video by one of the best at spotting and explaining price reversals: SSS50% Strategy
This video will cover how to look for full time continuity
We will also look at two different types of time continuity: trendline and by timeframe using the previous candle
Idea on how to use different timeframes
Larger timeframes mark overall patterns and reversals
Shorter timeframes are for entry and exits
Targeting the best setups only using Full Time Continuity
Yearly, Monthly, Weekly, Daily, Hourly trending in the same direction
Using your timeframe to get in and out
The simplest method is to look at the direction of the stock using the 200MA on each timeframe
Since larger time frames take longer to change than shorter timeframes you could focus on lower timeframes to confirm continuity on shorter terms
Monthly is down, Weekly is up, Daily/4-Hour/1Hour are up: potential bullish play
Monthly is up, Weekly is up, Daily/4-Hour/1-Hour are down; potential bearish play
In general, if Daily, Weekly, Monthly, and Yearly are all in line you should see fireworks on shorter time frames.
For conflicted continuity where the largest timeframes are not in line with lower timeframes, we can ride the trend on a short term basis; depends on the largest timeframe selected.
In this method we are looking at just the previous candle to determine whether we are bullish or bearish
Determine the closing of the previous candle and assess whether you are above or below the close
> close means you are bullish
< close means you are bearish
By timeframe (AAPL Example 06/20/22 to 06/24/22; market closed Monday for national holiday)
15-Minute (Bullish)
On the 15 minute candle we see a quick rise up signaling a bullish movement
I rarely use anything below the 15MIN timeframe as larger timeframes cuts out more of the noise and on the 1MIN chart you can get shaken out early overreacting to a movement
The only time I use a 1MIN timeframe is when I am looking to potentially exit my position near a profit point or resistance
Daily (Bullish)
On 06/21/22, we see a gap up and open at $133.42. Using the 30-minute candle we see it continue up quickly to a daily high of $137.06 before closing at $135.87.
Weekly Analysis (Bullish)
On Tuesday, the week started off bullish with an opening of $133.42 and closing at $135.87
Our bias on the weekly would be bullish until it broke below $133.42
On Wednesday, it gapped down and we were cautious of whether it would fall below the opening or push upward. Throughout the day it tested new highs but closed within the previous candle
On Thursday, we see it rise and close above the previous candle high at $137.76. The key mark to close above was really $137.34; the previous weeks high (shows that it able to push above)
On Friday, we see a gap up to $139.90 and close at $141.91
Monthly (Bearish)
Opening week of the month was bearish (06/01/22 to 06/03/22; Wednesday through Friday) opening at $149.90 and closing at $145.38.
The second week we see that the market pushed back up slightly, but never closing above our opening of the month at $149.90. By weeks end, we see a breakdown as it drops below $144.46 and closes at $137.06.
In the third week, we see it gap down and open at $132.87. We see a pullback and rise before closing the week at $131.56.
Overall Analysis
Despite being a Bearish month, we found a week where price action dictated a quick reversal for a $8 move
Using the opening as a method for determining time continuity can provide micro opportunities against the trend
It is important to note that the trend is your friend and you truly want to look at the overall market and ride the larger movement instead; moves quicker and farther (greater price action)
The reason why we dialed in on this particular week is to understand that the market has an ebb and flow to it that causes the market to have brief moments that go against the major trend. This is a good way to approach short term trading (intraday scalping and swing trading), spot reversals to exit your position and take profits, or to ride out for the long play.
Personal thoughts on play
I would not have entered at the beginning of the week due to the premarket high of $135.99 being rejected
Since we are ion a downtrend and there was a premarket high to be surpassed, I was looking for previous candle highs to close above in order for the price to continually rise.
Based on the premarket high and choppiness for day one, I was targeting a close above $137.34 (06/15/22). Typically, when I am looking to enter, I will use my 10-Minute and 1-HR for time frame continuity.
At the end of 06/23/22, with the market near close, I would have entered a starting position with the market most likely to close above my target.
On the next day, it gaps up and I am now in my gap play using my opening as a potential stop loss and profit.
It struggles, but eventually closes at $138.93. For me, since we are in a downtrend and typically 2-3 gap ups will often be met with a reversal, I would either look to close before market close or within the next few days; moving up my stop loss to lock in profits.
The next day we see it gap up again, fourth since 06/17/22, and after a brief push up it continues to fall and close below our open; a good sign to close an exhausted position.
Combining both Strategies
By combining both the trendline and opening price/period we can create a better educated assumption of the market
Knowing our trendlines are showing a heavy bearish outlook, any price rise should be short term and profits should be taken at previous resistance points or profits taken with tight stop losses on runners.
By the same token, any sign of the smaller time frames reversing path in line with the trendlines should be acted upon as the movements may be larger and quicker.
You should always be looking for reversal signals in a market pushing up in a downtrend and vice versa