Probability

Learning Goals & Success Criteria

Probability review

Learning goal

By the end of the lesson I will be able to use the basic rule of probability to calculate the probability of an event occurring

Success criteria

I am able to:

· state the meaning of experiment, outcome, sample space, event, complement

· draw the basic probability scale from 0 to 1

· state the probability value for impossible, unlikely, even chance, likely, certain

· state the basic rule of probability for equally likely outcomes

· list the sample space for simple experiments

· calculate the probability of events involving everyday objects such as coins, dice, spinners, cards

· calculate the complement of an event

Venn diagrams and two-way tables

Learning goal

By the end of the lesson I will be able to represent combined events using a Venn diagram and a two-way table

Success criteria

I am able to:

· use a Venn diagram to calculate probabilities involving combined events

· use a two-way table to calculate probabilities involving combined events

· draw a Venn diagram to represent combined events

· draw a two-way table to represent combined events

Using set notation

Learning goal

By the end of the lesson I will be able to ruse set notation to represent different aspects of sets and combinations of sets

Success criteria

I am able to:

· state the meaning of universal set, subset, element, null, intersection union

· state the meaning of the symbols {}, x, Î,Ì, Æ, È, Ç, n(A), A’

· for given sets A and B, find n(A), A ÇB, AÈB, A’

· draw a Venn diagram to represent the relationship between two sets

· draw a two-way table to represent the relationship between two sets

· calculate appropriate probabilities relating to two sets

Using tables for two-step experiments

Learning goal

By the end of the lesson I will be able to represent two step experiments using a table

Success criteria

I am able to:

· state the difference between “with replacement” and “without replacement”

· draw a table to display the sample space for a two-step experiment

· calculate probabilities for a two-step experiment using a table

· represent a worded situation using a table

Tree diagrams

Learning goal

By the end of the lesson I will be able to represent multi-step experiments using a tree diagram

Success criteria

I am able to:

· draw a tree diagram to display the sample space for a multi-step experiment

· calculate probabilities for a multi-step experiment using a tree diagram

· represent a worded situation using a tree diagram

Experimental probability

Learning goal

By the end of the lesson I will be able to use the rule for experimental probability to calculate the probability of an event occurring

Success criteria

I am able to:

· state the meaning of “long run proportion”

· state the rule for experimental probability

· use the rule to calculate experimental probability of an event

· calculate the expected number of occurrences of an event

Victorian Curriculum

• List all outcomes for two-step chance experiments, both with and without replacement using tree diagrams or arrays. Assign probabilities to outcomes and determine probabilities for events (VCMSP321)
• Calculate relative frequencies from given or collected data to estimate probabilities of events involving ‘and’ or ‘or’ (VCMSP322)