The Oscars

Red carpets have been rolling out since early January when the Golden Globes aired and kicked off award show season. Since then, the Critics Choice Awards, British Academy Film Awards (BAFTAs), Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards, and other cinematic award associations have crowned the best roles in film this past year. 

This year’s Oscars list is unexpected, with many film fans unpleasantly shocked at the nominations. Emilia Perez (starring Karla Sofía Gascon, Zoe Saldaña, and Selena Gomez) led the Oscars with 13 nominations. Members of the audience disagreed with the film's praise from critics, claiming that the film portrayed a poor representation of Mexican culture, was underscored by non-rhythmic music, and had a poorly written script. Many accuse nominators of giving the award to this film because it checks a diversity box. Films that weren’t nominated were also shocking to audiences. One example is the movie Challengers (starring Zendaya, Mike Faist, and Josh O’Connor) which many assumed would at least be nominated for music score, screenwriting, or cinematography. 

Also worth noting is that two films, Emilia Perez and The Brutalist (starring Adrien Brody, Felicity Jones, and Guy Pearce), were caught using Artificial Intelligence. Both films used AI to enhance the voices of the actors and actresses; Emilia Perez used it for vocal performance in their musical and The Brutalist used it to enhance Hungarian accents. I feel this should be an automatic disqualification for any award. 

The author’s predictions for this year’s Oscars are based on how I received the movies (disclaimer: I haven’t been able to watch every nominated movie this year), audience reception, and the recent trends with awards categories in the previous award shows. I mentioned the use of AI in film this year, it won’t affect my predictions. The list has been comprised to follow what I believe The Academy will decide to nominate. Here are my predictions for the 97th Academy Awards.

Best Picture - The Brutalist or Conclave

• I got a chance to watch The Brutalist in theaters, and it was beautiful with regard to production and acting. However, while I enjoyed Conclave’s story more than The Brutalist, I’m leaning more towards The Brutalist winning because of the trends in the awards. However, many believe it won’t win due to the film being in selective theaters and having a run time of three and a half hours. Many are expecting Anora to win, but I personally found the film to be decent and generally overhyped. I also found The Brutalist and Conclave to have more compelling plots and characters than Anora. While Dune: Part Two is also up for this award, I don’t believe it will win because of the Academy’s ongoing stigma against Science Fiction and Science Fantasy films.

Best Lead Actor - Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)

• Brody has won many awards already for his role as László Tóth in The Brutalist and I believe he will win again. Nominees for this category are great this year and many are deserving of this award, including Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), and Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice). Timothée Chalamet (Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown) has been campaigning for this award for the last few months, however, I don’t believe he will win this year, even after seeing his win at the SAG (Screen Actors Guild) Awards. That being said, if Chalamet were campaigning for his role as Paul Atreides in Dune: Part Two I predict he would win.

Best Lead Actress - Demi Moore (The Substance) 

• Demi Moore’s performance as Elisabeth Sparkle was jaw-dropping, in The Substance,  a gruesome horror of beauty standards and how far one could go to look beautiful again. Moore won Best Actress in a Comedy at the Golden Globes and Best Actress at SAG Awards. Mikey Madison also has a chance at winning for her stunning performance as Ani in Anora bringing Brooklyn attitude to the screen. Madison won Best Actress at BAFTAs for her performance. I am leaning more towards Moore winning as I found her character more compelling than Madison’s. I wouldn’t be surprised if Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) steals this win, as I’ve heard great reviews on her performance. I feel this category, like Lead Actor, can go either way between these three people. There are only two people I’m certain won’t win this award, and that’s Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) and Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Perez). Gascón won’t win because of her recent controversy on old Twitter posts, ruining most chances of Emilia Perez winning any award nominations (I find it worth mentioning Gascón has been absent at recent award shows due to her backlash, who knows if she will be at Oscar’s). I loved Erivo’s performance as Elphaba in Wicked, but with this being a musical and a lack of award translation to her role, I unfortunately don’t see her winning.

Best Director - Brady Corbert (The Brutalist)

• The Brutalist already won for directing at the Golden Globes. Sean Baker for Anora has been winning in this category as well, however, I enjoyed Corbet’s directing more than Baker’s. If I could pick anyone to win best director for this last year it would be Denis Villeneuve for Dune: Part Two. Many, including myself, were upset that Villeneuve didn’t get nominated for his work on Dune’s sequel, he along with everyone else in Dune’s production team did a stunning job.

Best Supporting Actress - Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)

• For not appearing until after intermission, Jones’ performance as Erzsébet Tóth in The Brutalist was amazing. Zoe Saldaña has been leading this category for her role in Emilia Perez, but I don’t believe she will win this time. Many are predicting she will win due to the award trends. Saldaña is one of my favorite actresses, but this is not the role I would like to see her win an Oscar for. For actresses who didn’t get nominated, I’m upset that Margerate Qualley’s performance in The Substance wasn’t recognized. Her character brought another level of horror alongside Demi Moore. If Qualley was nominated, I would give this award to her.

Best Supporting Actor - Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)

• Kieran Culkin has been leading this category in other award shows, so I expect that he will win his first Oscar this year for his role as Benji in A Real Pain. I saw Yura Borisov (Anora) and Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) in their respective roles on screen and they were great, but I see Culkin taking home this award.

Best Visual Effects - Dune: Part Two

• It would be a crime if Dune didn’t win visual effects. That being said, I did love Wicked’s visuals and they brought Oz to life.

Best Original Screenplay - The Brutalist

• I see The Brutalist winning this category, but Anora also has a chance. Anora is a Cinderella-inspired story, where a Brooklyn girl meets the son of a Russian oligarch and marries against his parents' intent. The Brutalist is about an architect who leaves postwar Europe for industrial America to start a new life but faces challenges in his new world. I do hope that The Substance could steal this award, where the film is about an actress who gets a hold of a “substance” to make her young again, diving into the gore and horrific views of beauty that were stunning to see put on screen.

Best Adaptive Screenplay - Conclave 

• Conclave has been leading this category for Best Adaptive Screenplay and it will likely win again. Conclave has won Golden Globe Best Screenplay along with Critics Choice and BAFTAs Best Adaptive Screenplay. Films like Nickle Boys and Sing Sing are also up for this category and have received many great reviews, however, it hasn’t translated into awards.

The Oscars will be airing on ABC and Hulu On March 2nd at 7 pm Eastern Time.