31  Cold War Redux

Cold War Redux 

The writing of this chapter began in March 2022, some 30 years after the end of the Cold War. In February 2022, after a long military build-up along their mutual borders, Russia launched a "special military operation," an unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. Expecting a quick and easy victory, the invaders faced stiff resistance by the Ukrainian armed forces. The United States, its major NATO allies, and many states of the European Union responded by imposing economic sanctions on Russia in the hope that the Russian leadership might cease the invasion. That did not happen. Now more than three years into the conflict, the war has intensified and stagnated into a stubborn struggle for control of lands and peoples in eastern and southern Ukraine. The US as well as most NATO and EU nations have been providing arms and other logistical assistance to Ukraine. It is the first war in Europe to involve a major power since 1945. Its international impact is global as it disrupts commerce, strains financial resources, and undermines domestic political consensus within both democratic and, to a lesser degree, authoritarian states. And looming in the background is the greatest nightmare of all: big powers with stakes in the outcome having nuclear weapons.  It is indeed Cold War Redux.

(Author's note: My account of this war originated in a request from Buffalo Seminary, the college preparatory school where I taught history for most of my teaching career.  This account is somewhat of an annotated almanac, chronologically recording events at present, rather than a historical assessment. With luck and we survive all of this, someday I may edit and rewrite it as a much shorter summarization.)

If you are reading this account, I would appreciate hearing from you. I can be reached at hschooley@buffaloseminary.org.  Just a simple, "Yes, I'm reading it" is all that is necessary, but your comments and suggestions are certainly welcome.

Some History

    Readers are reminded that historically, Ukraine and Russia share the same origins. It is strongly suggested that one read chapter 7 "The Rise of Russia".  What follows here is an account of Ukraine's emergence as a separate state over the 20th century.  

               At the outbreak of World War One in 1914, the land that is today Ukraine was part of the czarist Russian Empire.  Among the background causes of the war was the rise of nationalist movements, particularly in the Slavic regions of the Austrian Empire and, to a lesser degree, in Poland and elsewhere in the Russian Empire.  As the war progressed, both Russia and Austria suffered massive losses that undermined and weakened their monarchist governments.  Non-Russian minorities resented being conscripted as soldiers and, ill-prepared and poorly armed, rushed to the front and thrown into battle as cannon fodder.  Russia’s battlefront casualties were horrendous. Estimates are 1,700,00 killed and another 4,950,000 wounded.  

       In March 1917 revolution broke out in St. Petersburg and the czar's government was replaced with a Provisional Government of moderate socialists.  Russia had become a republic.  The new government assured its own demise by continuing Russian participation in the war.  Political opposition to the Provisional Government was led by the communist Bolsheviks, whose promise of "land, bread, and peace" would bring them to power through a coup d'état in November.  Vladimir Lenin, as head of the Bolshevik Party, immediately sought an armistice with Germany. 

     The German conditions for peace were devastating and formalized by the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk in March 1918.  Russia agreed to independence for Poland, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, the Ukraine, and the Crimea.  The Germans intended not only to weaken Russia but to isolate communism behind a ring of newly independent states dependent on Germany.  Russia was required to pay an indemnity to Germany of some 300 million gold rubles and to end all Marxist revolutionary propaganda in Germany.  To a country already weakened and exhausted by war, the treaty devastated Russia even further.  She lost 1/4 of her former territory  - regions that contained 1/3 of her population, 1/3 of her croplands, and over half of her industry.  Economically, Russia was crippled and starving, but the war was over and Ukraine, theoretically, was independent.  But, with Germany's defeat in November 1918, the victorious Allies set about to create  new European order based on the outcome of the Paris Peace Conference (Jan-June, 1919).  Russia was excluded from the conference and the infant Ukrainian state would be ignored.  

           An independent Ukrainian state was proclaimed in March 1917 on the background of the revolution in St Petersburg that deposed the czar.  Under the leadership of an alliance of socialist parties, the new state proclaimed itself the Ukrainian People's Republic.  That political alliance, however, quickly fell apart and Ukraine slipped into its own civil war, a complex mishmash of conflicting partisan entities.  Russia over the same period had also plunged into civil war as anti-communist "white" armies fought Lenin's Bolshevik "red" armies.  By 1920-1921, Lenin's forces had triumphed and the Communist regime was secure in its new capital city, Moscow.  Earlier, seeing Germany on the verge of defeat, Lenin repudiated the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk in November 1918 and asserted that Ukraine was still part of Russia. In 1919 Bolshevik forces entered Kyiv.  To add insult to injury, Poland attacked and occupied Ukrainian territory along the Polish border.  Very simply, the outcome of all of this chaos was Ukraine's once again being under Russian sovereignty. 

             In 1922 Soviet Russia and its territories were officially renamed the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, Ukraine being one of 15 "republics".   The Soviet "republics" were on paper sovereign, but the reality was rigid centralization under Communist Party control in Moscow.  That centralization was implemented through the "Dictatorship of the Proletariat", the Marxist expression for the revolutionary and thorough political, economic, and social transformation of the USSR imposed by Moscow and enforced through police terror. All private enterprise in both industry and agriculture was ended and replaced with state controlled cooperatives. Ukraine was a major food-producer, and many farmers resisted the new policies. Thousands were killed or deported to Siberia.  This was especially true during the implementation of Stalin's Five Year Plans in the 1930s.  

           When Hitler's armies invaded the Soviet Union in 1941, many Ukrainians initially welcomed the invaders as liberators. They soon found that Nazi occupation was far more brutal than Stalin's and rose in heroic resistance to save their motherland. Hence, Ukraine became a major battleground as the German offensive pushed eastward to the Volga and again when Soviet forces were able to take the offensive and push westward.  As with the Russian experience in World War One, the estimates of the USSR's human losses are staggering: 27 million deaths: 12 million military, 15 million civilian. 

          When Stalin met in conferences with his wartime allies, Winston Churchill, and Franklin Roosevelt, he insisted that in a future United Nations Organization the USSR have three seats in the General Assembly, Russia, Belorussia (Belarus) and Ukraine. This, however, did not mean that Ukraine was an independent sovereign state, even though that's how it would be recognized in the UN.   

          The postwar period found the Soviet Union engaged in Cold War confrontation with the United States and its allies. At the end of World War II Soviet armies had "liberated" Eastern Europe and Communist regimes were installed in what the West came to call the "satellite" countries: Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Rumania, Bulgaria.  Albania and Yugoslavia also had Communist governments but remained outside the Soviet realm.  The division of Germany into Western and Soviet occupation zones ultimately led to two Germanys, West and East. Inside East Germany was also the east-west division of the city of Berlin, the focus of serious crises in 1948 and 1961.   US foreign policy was based on "containment" of the spread of communism. The most demonstrative of containment policies was the foundation of the NATO alliance in 1949. The Soviet Union later (1955)  likewise created its own military alliance, the Warsaw Pact, made up of its communist satellites.  

          The US also assisted the postwar economic recovery of Western Europe through the Marshall Plan. (See chapter 25, section 5: The Marshall Plan and NATO.) In time, the economic cooperation between nations required by the Marshall Plan led to greater economic integration through the Common Market and later European Union. Economic recovery also assured the revitalization of democracy across Western Europe. The economic revival of Western Europe was seen by the Soviets as threatening.  

           The success of western Europe's economic recovery and prosperity contrasted greatly with the repressive regimes of Communist East Europe. Wanting democracy and free enterprise, outbreaks of opposition to Soviet control broke out in East Germany (1953), Poland (1956), Hungary (1956), and Czechoslovakia (1968).  In East Germany and Hungary, these revolutions were suppressed by Soviet military intervention.  The threat of intervention brought Poland and Czechoslovakia back in line. 

          Throughout the Cold War Ukraine had been of significant strategic importance for the USSR as its Black Sea coasts enabled Soviet naval access to the Black Sea. That strategic importance was further enhanced by the installation of Soviet long-range missile and air bases in the 1950s and '60s.  The nuclear bombs with which these weapon systems would be armed, were likewise, stockpiled at these bases.  

          In the late 1980s efforts by Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev to reform and modernize the Soviet system signaled major changes that threatened to undo the traditional Communist power structure. In foreign policy, Gorbachev made overtures to the West that were readily welcomed. (Gorbachev is considered in chapter 29, section 1.)  It was on this background that in 1990 -'91, the Soviet control over Eastern Europe ended and Soviet Union broke up.  In December 1991 Russian President Boris Yeltsin joined Leonid Kravchuk of Ukraine and Stanislav Shushkevich of Belarus in declaring their independence from the USSR and forming a new relationship of former Soviet states called the Commonwealth of Independent States. With Gorbachev's resignation on December 25, 1991, the USSR ceased to exist. 

          When Ukraine declared its independence in 1991, it had the world's third largest nuclear arsenal. Subsequent negotiations led to Ukraine's joining the international Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons in 1994. The Ukrainians systematically disarmed the weapons. Ironically, had Ukraine remained a nuclear power, the 2022 Russian invasion most likely would not have even been contemplated. 

                                                                                                                               Vladimir Putin

   Since 1999 the Russian head of state has been Vladimir Putin. The son of working-class parents, he was born in 1952 in Leningrad (today St. Petersburg). His youth had been troubled. Bullied, he took up judo and the Soviet martial art called sambo and became known as a tough street fighter. He once wrote that when threatened, one “must hit first and hit so hard that your opponent will not rise to his feet.” (quotation source: “Putin’s Messianic Mission”, The Week magazine, Mar. 25, 2022, p. 11.)  In 1970 he entered the St. Petersburg State University and graduated with a degree in law in 1975. That same year he joined the KGB, the Soviet secret police, and trained as a counter-intelligence officer.  Later stationed with the KGB office in Dresden, East Germany, Putin witnessed first-hand the 1989 collapse of communism in that country. As mass anti-communist demonstrations took place In Berlin and other East German cities, the KGB was ordered by Moscow not to interfere. (One must remember that in 1989 Gorbachev was in power and was taking a hands-off approach to the revolutionary changes sweeping across Eastern Europe.) Putin was outraged by the Soviet retreat from Eastern Europe. In his mind it was weakening Russia’s strategic strength and influence in world affairs. Back in St. Petersburg, he took a position at the university wherein he oversaw KGB surveillance of student and teacher activity. This brought him to the attention of the city’s new governing authorities, and he was appointed to a position in the mayoral office.   

       With the collapse of the USSR in 1991, Putin continued to serve in the government of St. Petersburg until 1996 when he relocated to Moscow. There, he served in an administrative capacity in several bodies of Boris Yeltsin's government, including the Federal Security Service (FSB), the successor to the KGB.  Impressed with Putin's no-nonsense commitment to policy implementation, Yeltsin appointed him as Prime Minister in 1999. Suffering from ill-health, Yeltsin clearly saw Putin as a possible successor. In late 1999 Yeltsin resigned, and Putin was named as Acting President, pending the outcome of future elections.

       In the spring of 2000 Putin was elected President of Russia. He would be reelected to a second term in 2004. The Russian constitution at the time forbid a third consecutive presidential term, but in 2008 Putin assured his continued control of the government through the newly elected President Dimitry Medvedev. Medvedev had been Putin's hand-picked Prime Minister and would do as Putin directed. In 2012 Putin was reelected as President and subsequent constitutional changes have assured his continued presidency. Medvedev was again appointed Prime Minister, and in 2020 Putin named him as Chairman of the Russian Security Council.

           A word here about Putin and the Russian Orthodox Church. Traditionally, the Church always favored strong secular leadership.  After all, the czars were God’s anointed and sworn protectors of the Orthodox faith. Moscow, remember, had historically been identified by the Church as the Third Rome of Christianity. During the Soviet era, religion, although referred to by Marx as the “opiate of the masses”, was tolerated as long as it did not criticize or interfere in the Communist controls of the country. The Church and Communist dictatorship, consequently, mutually tolerated each other. However, the conservatism and traditions of the Church did not mix well with Gorbachev’s movement towards social and political reform, especially as this led to the dissolution of the Soviet Union, in effect, the breakup of the Russian Empire.  Moscow remained the center of Russian Orthodoxy, but in 2019, even that was challenged.  The Ukrainian Orthodox Church announced that it would no longer recognize the authority of the Russian Patriarch as the Head of the Church. This was a powerful rebuke of Orthodox history. Kyiv was where Russian Orthodoxy began in the tenth century when Prince Vladimir adopted the Eastern Orthodox form of Christianity which would in time become the Russian Orthodox Church. Consequently, the present Vladimir – Putin, with his intent to restore the Russian Empire, is seen by the Russian Church as its greatest secular champion. The Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill referred to Putin as a “miracle from God”.  (quotation source: “Putin’s Messianic Mission”, The Week magazine, Mar. 25, 2022, p. 11.)

As the Bishop of Rome is the Pope in the Catholic Church, the Patriarch of Moscow is recognized as the head of the Russian Orthodox Church.  The present Patriarch is Vladimir Gundyayev, who was ordained in 1969 and holds the spiritual name Kirill (Cyril, the patron saint of Russia). A theological scholar, Kirill rose through the church hierarchy and was elevated to Patriarch in 2009.  He is extremely conservative and outspoken in his spiritual values and supports Putin's ambitions to restore Russia to its imperial greatness. That includes bringing Ukraine back under his spiritual authority.

               Returning to 1999. Putin inherited the on-going rebellion of the Russian province of Chechnya. Chechnya, a Soviet province in the Caucasus, declared its independence from the USSR in 1991. In 1994 the Yeltsin government began military operations to end the Chechen rebellion, but Chechen resistance proved difficult to suppress. Russian military operations ceased in 1996 with a de facto recognition of Chechen autonomy. That, however, ended in 1999-2000 when, under Putin's direction, Russian troops secured control of the region. Sporadic Chechen separatist opposition continued with acts of terrorism in Russian cities.

              In 2008 Putin sent Russian forces into Georgia, an independent Caucasus nation that had once been part of the Russian Empire and, until 1991, part of the Soviet Union. Putin justified the invasion on the grounds that Georgia had unjustly suppressed pro-Russian separatist movements in two Georgian provinces, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Georgia resisted the Russian aggression but eventually accepted a Russian-brokered cease-fire. Russia removed its troops, but the issue causing the conflict was not settled. Today the status of the two provinces remains in limbo. (Georgia has signaled that it's preparing for European Union membership possibly in 2024. Based on what is happening in Ukraine, Russia will not tolerate another neighbor's seeking ties with the West.)

              In 2012 Putin's attention turned westward as the government of Ukraine began making overtures for closer economic and political contact with the European Union (EU). In Putin's mind, a Ukraine linked to the West would be a threat to Russian security. Ukraine was also Russia's largest trading partner. Were Ukraine to become open to western markets, the Russian economy would suffer. Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych initially seemed inclined to favor future EU membership but vacillated in response to Russian offers of financial aid. In early 2014, popular protest of Yanukovych's policy broke out in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv. Because the initial demonstrations took place in Kyiv's Maidan (Independence) Square, the general movement became known as the Euromaidan Revolution. The protests turned violent when demonstrators occupied government buildings and clashed with riot police in the streets. Some 130 protestors and police were killed. Although much more complex in its resolution than as told here, the Euromaidan Revolution saw Yanukovych's removal from power and the Ukrainian parliament establishing a provisional government pending future elections. Yanukovych, popular among the Russian-speaking Ukrainians in the eastern part of the country, condemned his ouster as illegal and called on Russia for assistance. Putin, apparently, was more than willing to assist.

             Before continuing, just a reminder. As previous chapters have indicated, Russia's history has in large part been based on xenophobic expansion. The rationale here is that we are not safe until we control the peoples around us. Oh good, we conquered them. Wait. There are now others around us. We have to conquer them. That xenophobia seemingly has fed Russian autocracy ever since the Mongol invasions of the 13th century. The autocracy then perpetuates and strengthens itself through that xenophobia. Clearly an autocrat, Putin sees Russia surrounded by potential enemies. In the West those enemies are the NATO alliance and the European Union. Ukraine must be prevented from joining both.

The War

             The present Russo-Ukrainian war actually began in February 2014 when Putin ordered Russian military and naval forces to seize Crimea.  A Russian Crimea would greatly expand Russia's access to the Black Sea. Part of Ukraine, Crimea is a diamond-shaped peninsula that extends into the Black Sea.  Acquired by Russia during the reign of Catherine the Great, Crimea was the location of the 1853-1856 international conflict known as the Crimean War. (See chapter 15.2.)  Within the Soviet Union Crimea had been part of Russia until 1954 when Khrushchev transferred it to Ukraine.  (Khrushchev was native to Ukraine.)  Putin justified the 2014 attack on the grounds that Crimea was historically part of Russia, and that Russians living in the region and in other parts of Ukraine were being oppressed and persecuted by the Ukrainian government.  Russia also sent troops into the Donetsk and Luhansk (collectively, the Donbas) regions of eastern Ukraine, both areas with active Russian separatist movements. While condemning Russian aggression, the Western alliance took no action to prevent it.  The new Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko (2014-2019), refused to recognize Russian sovereignty over Crimea and resumed negotiations with the EU.  He also authorized military action against Russian separatists in the Donbas regions.  Poroshenko's presidency ended in 2019 with the election of Volodymyr Zelenskyy.  

                 Zelenskyy (b.1978), a lawyer, actor, and television producer, came to national attention as a popular and somewhat controversial television comedian. In a 2015 - 2019 TV series titled "Servant of the People"  he portrayed an absent-minded high school history teacher who became president of the country.  His political party took the name Servant of the People and ultimately won a majority in the Ukrainian parliament. Prior to the 2022 Russian invasion, Zelenskyy's policies reflected continued interest in closer ties with the EU.  He traveled to Belgium and met with EU and NATO officials. Yet he also sought resolution with Russia of the Donbas separatist issue.  His diplomatic travels saw him meeting with Putin and Presidents Trump and Biden.  Putin, however, saw Zelenskyy's interest in EU and possibly NATO membership as an unacceptable threat to Russian security. 

              The massive movement and assemblage of Russian troops along the borders with Ukraine began in late 2021 and continued throughout January and February 2022.   International efforts to negotiate a withdrawal saw numerous foreign ministers and heads of state traveling to Moscow to meet with Putin. US President Biden held a telephone "summit" with Putin that came to naught.  Putin was warned that were he to authorize an invasion, the US and EU would impose severe sanctions that could cripple the Russian economy.  Putin threatened to cut off shipments of natural gas to the West. Speculation is that both sides could and would use cyber warfare.  Putin recognized the Donbas regions of Donetsk and Luhansk as "independent" countries, promising them "protection" from Ukrainian aggression.  

On February 24, 2022 Putin authorized a "special military operation" ordering Russian forces into the Donbas.  His justification?  Russia was obligated to defend Russian Ukrainians from persecution and genocide by Zelenskyy's "Nazi" regime and "demilitarize" Ukraine to make it no longer a threat to Russia's security.  Both claims were total fabrications.  Zelenskyy responded, reminding the world that Ukraine was a democracy with a Jewish President. 

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                 We need a map, maybe more than one, but this will do for a start.  We see here Ukraine in relation to its neighbors and bordering seas. The Donbas Region (Luhansk and Donetsk) and Crimea are labeled in red as these are areas that Russia has either occupied or claimed to be independent states under Russian protection. Ukrainian resistance in the Donbas has been persistent, causing Russia to intensify its offensive in the region. The faded north-south line across the map is the Dnieper River.

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Before continuing, here's an alphabetical list of international organizations, groups, conferences, meetings, etc. that will appear in the narrative. 

The dates indicate where to find identifying information.

African Union (AU)                                                    July 28, 2023

Amity International (AI)                                            August 3, 2022

Belt and Road Initiative group (BRI)                              July 25, 2023

Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI)                                    July 22, 2022

Brazil Russia India China group (BRICS)                       July 19, 2023

Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)          November 23, 2023

European Political Community (EPC)                         October 2, 2025

Group of Seven (G 7)                                                    June 27, 2022

Group of 20  (G 20)                                                 July 7, 2022

International Criminal Court (ICC)                        April 26, 2022

Munich Security Conference  (MSC)                    February 17, 2023

Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)                August 31, 2025

Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG)            April 26, 2022   (The UDCG is also referred to as the Ramstein Group.)

World Economic Forum  (WEF)                              January 17, 2023

Identifying information on the EU, NATO, and the UN are in other chapters. 

European Union (EU)                                                   See Chapter 30.

North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)             See Chapter 25 section 5.

United Nations                                                             See Chapter 24, section 5.

               In addition to the invasion of the Donbas, a Russian offensive was likewise launched from the north targeting the Ukrainian capital Kyiv. Both assaults were met with stubborn opposition by both Ukrainian armies and armed civilians. By late March over four million frightened civilians had crossed Ukraine's western borders (with Moldova, Romania, Slovakia, and Poland), creating an overwhelming refugee crisis for those neighboring countries. As the Ukrainian government required men between the ages of 18 and 65 to stay in the country and join in its defense, the refugees are primarily women and children. International assistance, through both official aid and private charities has been severely strained in response to the ever-increasing need for food, clean water, and medical aid.  The number of refugees will increase as the war continues. 

            In attacks on major cities, Russian missile strikes have been indiscriminate with little respect for differences between strategic and civilian targets.  One such attack hit a maternity hospital in the besieged city of Mariupol, killing children and pregnant women.   Advancing from the Crimea, Russian forces occupied the port city of Kherson.  Russian troops assaulted and captured the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Ukraine's (and Europe's) largest nuclear facility.  A resulting fire at the plant brought fears of a reactor meltdown - another Chernobyl, but was extinguished.  Still, the Russians controlled Zaporizhzhia reactors and the surviving operating reactors at Chernobyl are both potentially lethal weapons that a desperate Putin might bring into play.

             The United States cut off the import of Russian gas, and numerous American-owned businesses and banks in Russia ordered their investments to shut down. Poland offered the transfer of its Russian-made fighter aircraft to American airbases in Germany where pilots might be trained to fly air strikes against Russian positions in Ukraine. Seeing such involvement as a dangerous escalation that could provoke Putin to take the war beyond Ukraine, President Biden rejected the offer.  Demands for the establishment of a NATO-enforced no-fly zone over Ukraine have likewise been rejected.  Observers fear that Putin, frustrated that the offensive in Ukraine has not led to quick victory, might authorize the use of chemical weapons. 

              In mid-March Russian forces, otherwise stalled in besieging Kyiv and other major cities, advanced to within 30 miles of the Polish border.  As the war continued, Russian rocket and artillery attacks on urban areas increased, but troop movements seemed to have bogged down. Unconfirmed casualty reports claim that over 40,000 Russian troops, including six generals, have been killed. (By late April Russia confirmed that eight generals had been killed since the war began in February.)  There have also been reports that Putin is firing officials deemed disloyal, bringing to mind Stalin's purging of Soviet officials back in the 1930s.

              On March 23rd President Biden flew to Brussels to meet with the leaders of NATO's member nations. Their goal was to agree on a common response to the war in Ukraine.  As  NATO is a defensive alliance, it cannot take an active military role unless a member state is attacked.  Despite NATO's condemnation of Russian aggression and agreeing to stronger economic sanctions, anything short of direct military intervention would not be satisfactory to the Ukrainians. Biden did warn that should Russia use chemical or biological weapons in Ukraine, the US would respond in kind.  

    Biden then visited Warsaw where he gave a blistering speech condemning the Russian invasion as the "test of all time" for democracy and  that “It is Putin, Vladimir Putin, who is to blame — period.”  In an unscripted comment at the end of his speech, the President added in regard to Putin, “For God's sake, this man cannot remain in power”.  This remark both surprised and alarmed those traveling with Biden as it seemed to imply that the US sought regime change in Russia.  The White House issued a statement walking back the President's remark.  “The President’s point was that Putin cannot be allowed to exercise power over his neighbors or the region,”... “He was not discussing Putin’s power in Russia, or regime change.”  Intended or not, Biden's words were seen by the Kremlin as highly provocative.  (quotations source: The Washington Post, March 26, 2022.) 

  The last week of March saw the Russian offensive continued stalled, and in some areas under siege, namely north of Kyiv, troops were being withdrawn.  Broadcasts from Moscow indicated that it was not Russia’s intention to conquer Ukraine but to secure the independence of the Donbas region and Crimea.  This news was received in the West with a great deal of skepticism. Were the pronouncement and the troop withdrawals sincere or ruses to buy time for repositioning and a renewed offensive? In any case, Ukraine rejected the idea that the country be partitioned. 

Peace Talks.   Representatives of both countries met in Istanbul on March 29. Discussions were inconclusive, but Ukraine indicated that it would accept the future status of neutrality and not pursue NATO membership. However, Ukraine would not accept the division of the country. Some lesser agreements allowed refugee evacuation from the besieged port city of Mariupol.  

It was reported that the Russians are bringing Syrian mercenaries to Ukraine.  Russia took an active role in the on-going Syrian civil war, a brutally destructive conflict fought largely in Syrian cities.  As they are skilled in street fighting and terror, it’s speculated that the Syrian fighters would be sent into Ukrainian cities.

On March 31 it was announced that Russian troops were being withdrawn from Chernobyl. Soldiers digging trenches in soil heavy with nuclear contamination were showing signs of radiation poisoning. That the exposed ground was being abandoned raised concerns about spread of radioactivity.   

Also on March 31 Russia claimed that Ukrainian helicopters attacked an oil depot in the border region of Belgorod. There were no confirmed reports that Ukraine had ordered such an attack. If true, the attack would have been the first such action taken by Ukraine against a Russian target. Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine's military operations are defensive and do not include attacks on targets inside Russia. There were questions as to whether the operation was conducted by Russia as a "false flag" tactic to justify an escalation in retaliatory weapons. (Ukraine later acknowledged helicopter attack against a fuel depot in the Belgorod region.) There is also great concern that Russia intends to mount a seaborn assault to capture Odesa, Ukraine's major seaport.  Odesa is of strategic importance as it is the conduit through which flows most of Ukraine's international trade. 

            The first week of April revealed disturbing televised evidence of Russia's waging war against civilians.  Ukrainian troops entering Bucha, a suburb northeast of Kyiv, recently evacuated by Russian troops, found streets strewn with the bodies of recently murdered civilians, including women and children. Many of the victims were bound with hands tied behind their backs and shot through the back of the head.  A mass grave of some 29 victims, all civilians, was also unearthed.  It was later reported that more than 400 bodies had been unearthed in Bucha. Similar atrocities were also discovered in other villages evacuated by the Russians. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy accused Russia as waging a war of genocide against the Ukrainian people. Russia responded that the accusations are false and the televised evidence was staged by the Ukrainians. President Biden, already having labeled Putin a "butcher", accused Putin of authorizing war crimes against humanity and waging genocide.  Russian state media reports the war to the Russian people as a "special military operation" successfully liberating regions occupied by Ukrainian "Nazis".  

(The Bucha atrocity is reminiscent of the systematic mass executions in 1940 of some 22,000 Polish military officers taken prisoner by the Soviets. The victims were shot in the back of the head and interred in mass graves in the Katyn Forest in Soviet-occupied Poland. The massacre was carried out by the Soviet NKVD (secret police) under Stalin's order. The massacre was kept secret until the graves were discovered by the German army in 1943.  The USSR immediately accused the Germans of having committed the murders and that remained the Soviet official position until 1990 when the Gorbachev government opened an investigation.  In a striking public revelation the Soviets announced that the NKVD and Stalin were officially responsible for the Katyn massacres.  We're reminded here that Putin's government denies any responsibility for the systematic murder of civilians in Bucha and elsewhere in Ukraine.)

           On April 5, Zelenskyy made a televised address to the United Nations Security Council. Impassioned and angry, the Ukrainian President chastised the body for its failure to condemn Russian aggression and authorize UN military intervention in Ukraine's defense. (Readers need here to be reminded that Russia is one of the permanent members of the Security Council and, as do the other permanent members - US, Britain, France, and China - has veto power over any action the Council might take.)  Citing the atrocities in Bucha and elsewhere as evidence of Russian brutality, Zelenskyy scolded the Council. The Council must, "either punish Russia or dissolve itself."  (The United Nations Organization's origins and functions are discussed in chapter 24 section 5.)

          Having withdrawn their troops from the regions north of Kyiv, the Russians renewed their assault in the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine.  Renewed rocket attacks were launched against the besieged city of Mariupol.  On April 8 over fifty persons were killed when rockets struck a railroad station crowded with refugees, largely women and children, in Kramatorsk. Russia blamed the Ukrainians for the attack.

           In light of the revelation of Russian atrocities against Ukrainian civilians, the UN General Assembly on April 7 voted to suspend Russian membership in the UN Human Rights Council. That same day, the US Senate voted unanimously to end all US trade with Russia. Earlier, on April 5, Congress passed the Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act, enabling  provision of arms and other necessary equipment to Ukraine.  As with US Lend-Lease to the Allies in 1941, conditions of the loans are such that repayment is deferred to an undetermined future. The Lend-Lease, along with the earlier (March 11) Congress-approved grant of $14 billion in military and humanitarian aid, is expected to go a long way in assisting Ukraine's war effort. 

  In an effort to revitalize the Russian offensive in Ukraine, Putin made a dramatic change by placing General Alexander Dvornikov in command of the Russian campaign.  Known by reputation as "The Butcher", Dvornikov had commanded Russian armies in Syria when Russia intervened in the Syrian civil war in 2015.  Russia was acting in defense of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, then facing pro-democracy rebels.   Thousands of Syrian civilians were killed as Russian forces mercilessly attacked defenseless towns and cities. Those civilians, Dvornikov asserted, were giving aid and comfort to the enemy and were, therefore, legitimate targets.  Earlier, in 1999-2000, Dvornikov led the Russian suppression of the rebellion in the break-away province of Chechnya, reducing the Chechen capital Grozny to rubble.  It was speculated that Dvornikov would have seen the Ukrainian civilians as he did the Syrians and Chechens.  However, on August 6 Moscow announced that Dvornikov had been relieved of his command. Speculation was  that his firing was because he  had failed to make the Russian offensive capable of achieving quick victory.

          Mid-April also saw reports of thousands of Ukrainian civilians from Mariupol and other Russian-occupied locations being forcibly deported to "filtration" camps.  Mostly women and children, the detainees, subject to intensive interrogation and abuse, must surrender documents, phones, and any other valuables before being "processed" and then transported from the camps to other locations inside Russia.  Such locations include the far reaches of Siberia.  Despite reports of beatings  and rapes, a Kremlin spokesman denied any abuse, saying some 420,000 Ukrainians voluntarily had fled to safety in Russia.  

          On the background of the war in Ukraine, both Finland and Sweden have begun exploring the possibility of NATO membership. Both nations have long pursued policies of non-alignment, but both see Russia's aggression as a threat to the overall security of Europe. Of the two, Finland is expected to request NATO membership first. Russia and Finland share an 800+ mile border and parts, if not all, of Finland had been subject territory of the Russian Empire from 1721 to 1918. When World War Two broke out in 1939, the Soviets invaded Finland.  Finnish resistance was stubborn and the Soviet armies initially suffered embarrassing defeats. The Soviets, however, would be victorious in 1940. With the German invasion of Russia in 1941, the Finns again took up arms, siding with the Germans against the Soviets. Following Germany's defeat in 1945, the future status of Finland was not decided until 1947.  In that year delegations of the wartime allies, meeting in Paris, drew up the peace treaties for Germany's wartime allies: Italy, Hungary, Bulgaria, Rumania, and Finland.  Shorn of some border territories, Finland resumed its place among European nations. It would join both the United Nations and, later, the European Union.  For these reasons, a Finland in NATO would be seen by Putin as an unacceptable threat.

          April 14 saw the startling news of the sinking of the Moskva, flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.  The Moskva was a Slava class guided missile cruiser with a complement of over 500 officers and crew, operating off Ukraine's southern coasts.  The Russian official news agency TASS announced the ship, damaged by an internal explosion and fire of unknown origin was under tow when it "lost its stability" in a storm. All of its crew were ordered to abandon ship. Russia initially remained silent about any casualties from the  sinking but later revealed that 26 crew were injured and one sailor was missing.  Russia denied that the vessel was hit by Ukrainian missiles. Ukraine, however, maintains that the ship was struck by two Neptune anti-ship missiles fired from an undisclosed location ashore.  Neptunes are cruise missiles with a range of 60 to 65 miles. The Russian denial that the ship was struck by Ukrainian missiles was seen as a face-saving ploy.  Foreign naval experts affirm such a ship would certainly have had anti-missile defenses.  The sinking was followed by an intense Russian missile attack on targets in Kyiv. 

 It is on the background of the sinking of the Moskva that Snake Island comes into our story. Snake Island is a tiny rocky Ukrainian islet in the western Black Sea, some 22 miles from the mainland.  (Its name comes from the white snakes found there.) It holds a place in Greek legendry as the resting place of Achilles following his death at Troy. A small temple to Achilles was erected but centuries later its ruins were destroyed when a lighthouse was built on the site. A few inscribed stones and ancient amphorae were later housed in a museum.  Devoid of any resources, Snake Island’s value is strategic and was targeted for conquest by Russia early in the war. Control of Snake would provide the Russians with a base for future operations against Odesa.  The Moskva appeared off its shores and demanded that the small Ukrainian garrison surrender. In response a Ukrainian soldier signaled “Russian warship, go fuck yourself.” This epithet soon became the universal rallying cry of Ukrainian resistance. The island was immediately attacked by a Russian landing party and most of its defenders were taken as prisoners of war.  The Russians occupied the island until June, when as a “good will gesture,” they withdrew. A small Ukrainian commando force briefly landed on the island, making an inventory of abandoned Russian equipment and rescuing a cat before leaving. A renewed Russian bombardment intended to destroy what armaments were left behind destroyed the Achilles museum. The island remains uninhabited. Most of the island’s Ukrainian defenders were later released in a prisoner exchange.  (quotations source: The Week, January 6, 2023 issue)  

           The Russian Oligarchs 

            News reports relating to the imposition of US and EU commercial sanctions on Russia often mentioned that such actions are intended not only to weaken the overall Russian economy but to undermine the Russian oligarchs’ support for Putin. Perhaps an explanation is necessary. From the Greek oligarkhes, oligarchy means rule by a few. Of course, history often shows that the “few” who rule are the rich.  We’ll add the Greek words ploutos, meaning wealthy, and kratos, meaning rule. Thus, the oligarchy is also a plutocracy. Because, and especially in Russia’s case, the wealthy often made their fortunes in less than legal means, we’ll add the Greek kleptes, meaning thief. Putin’s Russia, therefore, is governed by a klepto-plutocratic oligarchy. The oligarchs are opportunistic billionaires who initially made their fortunes in the 1990s transition from the Soviet communist system of state ownership of the means of production to private enterprise. This was concurrent with the rise of Putin as a force within the Yeltsin government. As a former KGB operative, Putin was well-familiar with the relationship between government and crime.  It was to his advantage, both politically and financially, to both curry favor with and intimidate those seeking government approval of their business operations. He saw to it that many of his KGB and other police associates likewise rose to billionaire status through board membership and control of emerging Russian corporations.  They then would be beholden to and dependent upon his good will for the future of their fortunes, and lives.  

The rewards of the oligarchs’ relationship with Putin are many. They live lavishly with luxury properties both in Russia and abroad.  They have private aircraft, overseas resorts, and magnificent yachts, assets that US and EU sanctions are intended to seize.  According to The Week magazine April 8, 2022 issue, “A 2017 study conducted by the US-based National Bureau of Economic Research found that Russia’s wealthiest elite had at least $800 billion stashed abroad – roughly equal to the total wealth of Russia’s remaining 144 million people.” (Russia’s total population in 2022 is estimated at 146.5 million.) And Putin himself?  (from the same article) As President of Russia he makes $140,000 in salary but owns a 190,000 square foot $1.4 billion mansion on the Black Sea coast. It is estimated that his personal fortune is well over the some $200 billion he holds in various assets. 

Earlier on April 5, the EU announced a new wave of sanctions that included Putin’s two adult daughters, Maria Vorontsova and Katerina Tikhonova. Both women are in their 30s. By way of sanctions any foreign assets they may hold in EU countries are subject to seizure. Putin has always been secretive about his family life. The two women are the children of his former wife Lyudmila Alexandrovna. They were divorced in 2013. The naming of the Putin daughters pales in importance compared to the broad sweep of the sanctions whereby the EU nations will end Russian coal imports.

            Back to the War

             Russia launched air and rocket attacks against targets Lviv in western Ukraine and Kharkiv in the east. Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city, is near the contested Donbas region. Civilian sections of the city are among the targets in a siege that is becoming increasingly intensive.

             News reports on April 19 asserted that Russia has begun a major offensive against Ukrainian positions in the Donbas.  If confirmed, this assault may be the anticipated result of the Russian withdrawal of forces from the Kyiv region and repositioning them in the east. 

         In a show of force intended to intimidate those states, the US primarily, providing military assistance to Ukraine, Putin, on April 20, announced the test of a Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile.  The Sarmat has a range of 11,000 miles and can carry 10-15 MIRV nuclear warheads.  A MIRV is a Multiple Independently targetable Reentry Vehicle. Each MIRV is a separate rocket that can be launched from the carrying missile against separate pre-programed targets. The US also has an arsenal of similar missiles, be that any reassurance.

             Over the week of April 18 to 21 the Russians intensified their eight-week siege of Mariupol with renewed rocket and artillery attacks.  Russia's objective is to take Mariupol, even if it means destroying the city.  The goal is to secure its surrounding territory as a permanent land bridge between the Donbas and Crimea. But, does Russia aspire to conquests beyond that?  There are concerns that Russia seeks control of Ukraine's entire southern coasts with Odesa as the primary prize. 

          Ukraine's land-locked western neighbor Moldova, also once a part of the Russian Empire and Soviet Union, is nervous about Russian expansion westward. Putin, remember, aspires to restore the Russian Empire.  In 1991-1992, the eastern parts of Moldova between the Dniester River and the border with Ukraine, declared independence from Moldova, calling the territory the Transnistrian Republic.  A brief border war resulted, and a cease-fire demilitarized zone was established in 1992. Transnistria’s independence is not recognized by Moldova, but it is by Russia and Russia has troops in the region as part of an earlier peace-keeping mission. (author's comment: Confusing, right? But I did my best to simplify a very complex situation. If you look at the map above, imagine Transnistria as a narrow strip of land just inside the eastern border of Moldova.)

              In Mariupol what’s left of the city’s defenders, isolated in the Azovstal steel plant, continued to resist the Russian assault, and refused Russian demands for surrender.  With the Ukrainian soldiers are an estimated thousand civilians, including women and children, also holed up in tunnels below the steel plant. The Russians have promised safe passage for the civilians if the Ukrainian force surrenders. Considering how the Russians have treated Ukrainian civilians elsewhere, this promise is seen to carry little, if any, weight.  Zelenskyy insists that any safe passage of civilians from Mariupol must be done under UN protection.  One might compare what’s happening in Mariupol to the 1836 siege of the Alamo.  

              April 24 saw a three-hour meeting of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin with Zelenskyy in Kyiv. The  two highest US officials to visit Ukraine, they pledged continued US economic and military support. Blinken announced that the US would be reopening its embassy (closed since February) in Kyiv, and that President Biden would be naming Bridget Brink as US Ambassador to Ukraine. 

             Brink is currently serving as Ambassador to Slovakia. Brink's appointment, however, must be approved by the US Senate.  As a two/thirds majority vote is required, the current political division in the Senate makes that unlikely. There has not been an American ambassador to Ukraine since 2019 when former Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch was fired by President Donald Trump.  Perhaps at this point it might be interesting, or alarming, to know that of President Biden's 101 ambassadorial appointments, 30 have yet to get Senate confirmation. (Surprisingly, Brink was unanimously approved by the Senate on May 18. See below.)     

The New York Times reported that remarks made by both Blinken and Austin in Poland on April 25 may be signaling a shift in the US position on the war.  That shift being from not only assisting Ukraine preserve its sovereignty but a to broader goal of weakening Russia. "We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it cannot do the kinds of things it has done in invading Ukraine," Austin stated.  Be that the case or not, Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in response, likened the situation to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, implying that Russia will use nuclear weapons in its defense.

 On April 26 defense officials from 41 countries met in a conference hosted by Austin at the U.S. air base in Ramstein, Germany. The agenda focused on increasing and accelerating arms shipments to Ukraine.  Initially reluctant to contribute to the war effort, Germany announced that would send air-defense weapons to Ukraine. Other nations pledged howitzers, tanks, rockets, drones, hand grenades, and rifles. The meeting initiated the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) which would meet monthly to coordinate continued military aid to Ukraine. The UDCG would expand to 54 countries by Feb. 2023, but "membership" would be fluid as no state could guarantee consistent shipments of continued aid.   (The UDCG is sometimes referred to as the Ramstein Group.)  

               Russia announced the cessation of gas shipments to Poland and Bulgaria. 

               Transnistria on Ukraine's western borders with Moldova was mentioned above.  A series of unexplained explosions at Russian targets in that region on April 26 give rise to speculation that Russia may attack Ukraine from the west. Targets included the Russian military headquarters and transmission towers for Russian radio in the region. There were no announced injuries.  Russia blames Ukraine for the attacks. Ukraine denies the attacks, asserting that they were the work of the Russians.  

               On April 26 United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres met with Putin in Moscow, as part of a diplomatic mission to seek some sort of accommodation whereby peace talks might resume. The meeting ended with no agreement.  Guterres then traveled to Kyiv. Prior to meeting with Zelenskyy, he toured sections of the city, including the suburb of Bucha.  He commented that "war is an absurdity" and "There is no way war can be acceptable in the 21st century."  He also stated that he would urge Russia to cooperate with the International Criminal Court (ICC) in a future investigation of war crimes.  Five Russian rockets struck targets in Kyiv while Guterres was still in the city.  Former Deputy UN Secretary General Mark Malloch Brown, commenting on the attack, remarked  "It is humiliating in a way. I think the international community, not just Europe, but countries everywhere, will recognize they cannot have their UN secretary general sort of treated in this disrespectful, casual and, frankly, dangerous way by Putin."

         What is the International Criminal Court?  The ICC was created through the Rome Statute, an international treaty of some 132 nations signed in Rome in 1998.  Its purpose is to investigate and prosecute crimes against humanity (genocide) and war crimes.  It is not part of the United Nations Organization and should not be confused with the UN's International Court of Justice.  The ICC does, however, work with the UN in its investigations. The ICC headquarters are in The Hague in the Netherlands.  Russia was initially a signatory but withdrew its signature. The US withdrew its signature in 2002.  The Rome Statute is an international treaty and would require a two/thirds vote in the US Senate to approve ratification.  This is not likely as opponents of ratification from 1998 to present see the treaty as compromising US sovereignty, especially in the exercise of justice.  Still, the US has occasionally  cooperated with the ICC when the US administration sees its interests in agreement with the  ICC's actions.  An ICC investigation and prosecution of Russians accused of crimes against humanity in Ukraine would certainly be seen by the Biden Administration as in US interest. Non-member nations may call upon the ICC to investigate war crimes.  Ukraine does not belong to the ICC but called on the ICC to investigate war crimes committed in the 2014 Russian invasion of Crimea.  It is certain that Ukraine will do so again. 

             Some statistics according to the French news agency Agence-France Presse (AFP), April 29. "More than 5.4 million Ukrainians have fled their country since Russia invaded two months ago, with tens of thousands joining their ranks every day, the United Nations says.

Beyond the refugees, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) estimates more than 7.7 million people have been displaced within Ukraine, meaning that more than 13 million people overall have been uprooted by the conflict."

              US Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi and several members of Congress made an unannounced visit to Kyiv on April 30. She met with President Zelenskyy, assuring US support for the duration of the conflict. She is the highest-ranking American official to have visited Ukraine since the Russian invasion began.  Zelenskyy awarded her the Order of Princess Olga, “a decoration bestowed upon women who have made outstanding contributions to Ukraine.” (quotation source, The Washington Post) Pelosi and the others made a short walking tour of the city before flying to Poland.

            News reports from besieged Mariupol had civilians being evacuated from the Azovstal steel plant according to UN-brokered conditions accepted by both Russia and Ukraine. The agreed-upon cease-fire is tenuous at best and only small groups of the estimated 1000 civilians are able to leave at a time.  The first 100 evacuees were transported by buses to Zaporizhzhia.  On May 5 Russia announced another three-day truce for further evacuations, but artillery shelling continued. Understand that news reports from the Mariupol area are spotty and their accuracy is difficult to verify.

           Pope Francis announced on May 4 that he had a video conference call with Patriarch Kirill of the the Russian Orthodox Church on March 16. The Pope had hoped to enlist Kirill, as a fellow Christian, in a call for the end of hostilities. Instead, Kirill read from prepared notes Russia's justification for the invasion. Francis reported that he pleaded with Kirill not to become "Putin's altar boy".  Kirill, as we have seen above, sees Putin as a "miracle from God".

           Ukraine announced a May 5 missile attack on the Admiral Marakov, a Russian warship operating off the Black Sea coast of Ukraine and Bulgaria.  The Marakov is a Grigorvich Class frigate, launched in 2017.  The Marakov was struck by Neptune cruise missiles similar to those that sank the Moskva in April.  Damaged, the vessel escaped.

            US First Lady Jill Biden made an unannounced visit to Ukraine on May 8. Mrs. Biden had traveled to Slovakia where she met Ukrainian refugees at a refugee center near the border with Ukraine. Her two-hour secret visit to Ukraine was to Uzhhorod where she met with Ukraine's first lady Olena Zelenska.  “I wanted to come on Mother’s Day,” Biden told Zelenska. “I thought it was important to show the Ukrainian people that this war has to stop and this war has been brutal and that the people of the United States stand with the people of Ukraine." (Quotation source, Associated  Press)

             May 9 saw the annual "Victory Day" celebration in Moscow. Victory Day commemorates the 1945 Allied victory over Hitler's Germany, ending World War Two in Europe.  It is highlighted by a massive military parade through Red Square.  There was great speculation that Putin would use the day to declare war against Ukraine or make bombastic threats against Western support for Ukraine. Instead, he defended his "special military operation". Ukraine, he stated,  was  “a threat that was absolutely unacceptable to us [that] has been methodically created next to our borders ... The danger was rising by the day,” he claimed, adding that “Russia has given a preemptive response to an aggression” in what he described as a “forced, timely and the only correct decision by a sovereign, powerful and independent country."  Russia is "fighting for the Motherland, so that no one will forget the lessons of World War II and there will be no place in the world for hangmen, executioners and the Nazis.”  (quotation source, Associated Press.) 

 May 12 update: The Russian siege of the Azovstal steel mill in Mariupol continued to face defiant resistance by the small Ukrainian force in  the tunnels beneath the plant. It is believed that there remains an unknown number of civilians with them.  Ukraine news sources reported that Russian troops had been pushed back from the besieged city of Kharkiv.  Russian rocket strikes were reported in Odesa. Odesa is Ukraine's major Black Sea port and vital to Ukraine's war effort. Russia also increased rocket and artillery strikes against Ukrainian railroad lines and operation facilities.  Most of the foreign military equipment being sent to Ukraine is transported into the country by rail. In the US President Biden called for Congress to enact new legislation to increase the funding of military assistance to Ukraine.  A $40 billion appropriation was approved by the House of Representatives. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson met with the prime ministers of Finland and Sweden in establishing a mutually defensive agreement among the three countries. It is expected that Finland will ask to join NATO in the near future. Sweden is expected to follow. 

May 13 update:  Russia was quick to respond to Finnish and Swedish intent to join NATO. Russia's deputy ambassador to the UN Dimitry Polyanskiy warned "They know that the moment they become members of NATO, it will imply certain mirror moves on the Russian side" ..."If there are NATO detachments in those territories, these territories would become a target — or a possible target — for a strike ... NATO is a very unfriendly bloc to us — it is an enemy, and NATO itself admitted that Russia is an enemy. It means that Finland and Sweden, all of a sudden, instead of neutral countries, become part of the enemy and they bear all the risks." (quotation source: CBS News) We are reminded that Putin justified the invasion of Ukraine in part because Ukraine sought EU and NATO membership. Unlike Ukraine, however, Sweden and Finland were not part of the former USSR.

May 16 update:   On May 14 Ukrainian President Zelenskyy met with a delegation of US Republican senators led by Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (KY) and including Susan Collins (ME), John Barrasso (WY), and John Cornyn (TX) in Kyiv. The visit was unannounced. The visiting senators assured Zelenskyy of bipartisan support for Ukraine and that the Senate would consider the $40 billion aid bill passed by the House. The Republican senators then traveled to meet with officials in Sweden and Finland. 

The Russian siege of the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol continues, but news reports by both Russia and Ukraine state that some 260 Ukrainian soldiers, some with severe injuries, were evacuated during a brief humanitarian truce.  The injured soldiers were taken to a Russian hospital and the others to a town held by Russian separatists.  It is not known if they will be made prisoners of war or held for a future prisoner exchange. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar issued a statement.  “ Thanks to the defenders of Mariupol, Ukraine gained critically important time to form reserves and regroup forces and receive help from partners,” she said. “And they fulfilled all their tasks. But it is impossible to unblock Azovstal by military means." (quotation source: Associated Press)     "... it is impossible to unblock Azovstal by military means" seems to signal that Mariupol will fall to the Russians.

It's over in Mariupol. On May 17 the Ukrainian military command announced that the force defending Azovstal "has fulfilled its combat mission" and has been ordered to "save the lives of their personnel ... The heroes of our time." (quotation source: USA Today) It is estimated that the weeks-long siege of the steel plant had diverted some 20,000 Russian troops from other fronts enabling Ukrainian forces to regroup and reinforce defensive positions elsewhere. Russia reported the end of the siege as a mass surrender.  It is not yet known if there will be a prisoner exchange.  (An exchange took place on Sept 21. See below.)

President Recep Erdogan of Turkey announced that Turkey will not vote for the admission of Sweden and Finland to NATO.  Admission of new states to NATO requires unanimous approval by the alliance membership. Both Sweden and Finland have given asylum to Kurdish dissidents from Turkey and refuse to extradite them to Turkey. Turkey sees the dissidents as terrorists and demands their arrest and extradition.  The region known as Kurdistan was once part of the Ottoman Empire and  was partitioned among Turkey, Syria, and Iraq back in the 1920s. There has been sporadic armed resistance by the Kurds to Turkish rule since 1978 as Kurdish nationalists led by the banned Kurdish Labor Party - the PKK  - (seen as terrorists by Turkey, Syria, and Iraq) seek independence as a separate state.  

By a vote of 89-11 on May 17, the US Senate "advanced" the $40 billion aid package for Ukraine. 

May 18 In a ceremony at NATO headquarters in Brussels representatives of the Finnish and Swedish governments presented their countries' formal applications for NATO membership.  Approval, however, is not instant and could take months before there's a vote on admission.  

The US Senate unanimously voted confirmation of Bridget Brink as US Ambassador to Ukraine. The US Embassy in Kyiv, closed since the war began in February, reopened on May 18.  The US Senate, by a vote of 86-11, approved the $40 billion aid package for Ukraine. Russia announced that the Ukrainian soldiers who surrendered at Mariupol would not be exchanged for captured Russians but interrogated and prosecuted as "Nazis".  

May 27 update: The Associated Press reported that Turkey has listed a set of conditions upon which it would accept Sweden’s admission to NATO.  Sweden must terminate “political support for terrorism”, eliminate financial support for terrorism, and cease arms support to the PKK and other groups affiliated with it.  Regarded by Turkey as terrorists, the PKK is the Kurdistan Workers Party. The demands also called for the lifting of arms sanctions against Turkey and global cooperation against terrorism. (See May 17 update above.)

Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, speaking by video to the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland on May 23rd, stated that peace between Russia and Ukraine could not be restored until Ukraine agreed to cede the Donbas and Crimea to Russia. “Negotiations need to begin in the next two months," Kissinger said, "before it creates upheavals and tensions that will not be easily overcome ...” “... Pursuing the war beyond that point would not be about the freedom of Ukraine, but a new war against Russia itself.” (quotation source: World Economic Forum  Website)  Within hours, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy rejected Kissinger's call for negotiations.   In later remarks Zelenskyy compared the land-for-peace idea reminiscent of the 1938 Munich agreement wherein Britain and France sacrificed Czechoslovakia to Hitler.  

(Author's note: My former students might recognize Kissinger as "Machiavellian" in his overall view of policy-making. As Nixon's National Security Advisor and later Secretary of State, Kissinger engineered the policy of détente as the means to the end in the exercise of US foreign policy.  Highlights of détente were the accommodation of the US and China (1972), the US-Soviet Anti-Ballistic Missile agreement (1972), and the end of the US war in Vietnam (1973). If interested, see the section dealing with Soviet Foreign Policy, 1964 - 1982 in chapter 27.2 The Soviet Union under Brezhnev.)

May 31 update:  The last week of May found intense fighting continuing in the Donbas region. Both sides are claiming victories:  Russia in its offensive; Ukraine in its defense.  Those losing the most, of course, are the civilians caught in the cities, towns, and villages on the battlefronts.  In these areas the infrastructures for food, fuel, communications, transportation, medical services, water, and electricity have been severely disrupted if not altogether destroyed.  

Beyond Ukraine the global impact of the conflict is profound. Ukraine had long been a major producer and exporter of wheat and other grain crops with markets primarily in Africa.  The loss of the ports at Kherson and Mariupol and the Russian naval blockade of Odesa has ended wheat shipments by sea.  Ukrainian farmers who are still able to grow and harvest grain crops have lost their markets and face severe financial loss. Ukraine claims that some 20 million tons of grain supplies that could feed millions are going nowhere. Particularly affected are nations in the Horn of Africa (Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, South Sudan). Already devastated by drought, Somalia had become dependent upon grain supply from Ukraine and Russia.  The shortages and prospect of no shipments whatsoever have driven up commodity prices to levels that are unaffordable. Some 13 million people are threatened with starvation. The same is true for another 18 million in the Sahel, the drought-stricken transnational area south of the Sahara.

On May 30 the European Union approved a new round of sanctions cutting imports of Russian oil by some 90% over the next six months. The 27-nation EU imports about 25% of its oil from Russia.  The EU ban does not affect the import of natural gas.  Needing it to generate electricity and for heating  homes and businesses, EU countries import some 40% of their gas from Russia. (Percentage statistics source: Associated Press) 

Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban, however, threatened his country’s withdrawal from the EU should the oil ban go into effect. Hungary imports 65% of its oil and 85% of its gas from Russia and would suffer severely should it sever trade with Russia.  The EU accommodated Orban by exempting Hungary from the ban as it is a land-locked country with no access to imports by sea. The same exemption was extended to Slovakia and the Czech Republic, both also land-locked.  Orban has proved troublesome to Western efforts to isolate Russia. Hungary has refused to provide weapons to Ukraine and has denied other countries permission to transport weapons across Hungary to Ukraine.

Russia also uses oil and gas as economic weapons against countries giving aid to Ukraine. Gazprom, the major producer and exporter of Russian natural gas, has cut off shipments to the Netherlands, Denmark, Germany, Bulgaria, Poland, and Finland. (Russia, incidentally, has the world's largest natural gas reserves and is the world's largest natural gas global exporter.)

As the war moves into the summer months, there is speculation that General Alexander Dvornikov may no longer be in command of the Russian campaign.  Appointed by Putin in April, Dvornikov was expected to bring both strategic and tactical efficiency and discipline to the Russian war effort. There is of yet no evidence of such change. Dvornikov, lately, has not been visible in Russian media, a possible sign that he is no longer in control. 

June 4 update:  In addition to General Dvornikov's being absent, the Russian newspaper Pravda reported that Putin had fired five additional generals in what it calls a "standard employee reshuffle procedure." The firings were in response to failures to bring greater efficiency and effectiveness to Russian military operations, an issue that has plagued the Russian campaign since it began in February.

Despite failures in Russian tactical command, the Russian offensive in the Donbas continues to slog ahead with Ukraine reporting up to 100 battlefield deaths a day. The heaviest fighting is in Severodonetsk where Russian artillery and rocket fire as well as street-to-street combat has been devastating.   Severodonetsk is some 100 miles southeast of Kharkiv in Luhansk Province. 

President Biden announced that the US would begin providing Ukraine with HiMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) missiles. These are precision-guided missiles fired from mobile launchers and have a strike range of 45 to 50 miles.  Ukrainian President Zelenskyy had been requesting such weapons since the start of the war. However, the US will not send Ukraine the longer-ranged HiMARs capable of hitting targets inside Russia. Putin has warned that any attack on targets inside Russia could escalate the conflict beyond Ukraine.  

On June 5, the Associated Press reported a Russian rocket attack on targets in Kyiv.  This was the first Russian strike at Kyiv since late April. Russia claimed that the attack, aimed against military facilities, was successful, a claim that Ukraine denied. 

On June 7, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that Russia and Turkey have been discussing possible means whereby Ukrainian grain might be shipped from Odesa to markets in Africa and the Middle East. In one such scheme, Turkey would help remove mines * from the waters off Odesa and escort the shipments to and through the Turkish Straits. It is doubtful that Russia will agree without NATO’s first allowing Russian grain shipments to likewise have access to the Straits or the relaxing of EU sanctions.  (It is suspected that Ukrainian grain in those areas held by Russia is being shipped by Russia.)  While Turkey is a member of NATO, it marches to the beat of President Erdogan’s drum. Erdogan has been outspoken in opposing Sweden and Finland’s efforts to join the alliance. Turkey has not joined in the economic sanctioning of Russia. 

*Mines are subsurface explosive devices used as defensive weapons against enemy shipping.  The mines off Odesa are Ukrainian. In addition, Russian warships are blockading maritime access to Odesa and other ports. Removal of the mines to create an open channel would require Ukrainian approval and guarantees of protection by third party naval forces. It is highly doubtful that Ukraine would agree that Turkey, considering its relationship with Russia, be an acceptable guarantor.

The pressing need for continued food shipments to Africa compelled the head of the African Union, Macky Sall (President of Senegal), to meet with Putin in Sochi on June 3. The African Union, founded in 2001, is comprised of 55 member nations and functions much as does the UN or EU, seeking cooperation in economic and social development.  The WSJ reported “With Putin at his side, Sall urged relief for both Ukraine and the country that chose to attack it. ‘The fact that this crisis brought the cessation of exports from Ukraine, but also from Russia because of sanctions, we have found ourselves in between these two,’ Sall told reporters. ‘It’s of absolute necessity that [governments in the West] help to facilitate the export of Ukrainian grains, but also that Russia is able to export fertilizers, food products, but mainly cereals.’ ”

Putin the Great?  In a speech on June 9, Putin stated   “Peter the Great waged the Great Northern War for 21 years ... On the face of it, he was at war with Sweden taking something away from it … He was not taking away anything, he was returning. This is how it was.” It didn’t matter that European countries didn’t recognize Peter the Great’s seizure of territory by force. “When he founded the new capital (Saint Petersburg), none of the European countries recognized this territory as part of Russia; everyone recognized it as part of Sweden. However, from time immemorial, the Slavs lived there along with the Finno-Ugric peoples, and this territory was under Russia’s control. The same is true of the western direction, Narva and his first campaigns. Why would he go there? He was returning and reinforcing, that is what he was doing.”  Alluding directly to his own invasion of Ukraine, Putin added: “Clearly, it fell to our lot to return and reinforce as well.” (quotation source: CNN News)

"Return and reinforce": such words are alarming to the Baltic states, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania as all were once part of the lands conquered by Peter in the 1700s and made - and stayed - part of the Russian Empire and Soviet Union until 1990. Need a refresher? Peter the Great, Czar of Russia, 1682-1725, is considered in Chapter 7.   

June 15 update: In the Donbas, fighting in Severodonetsk shows the Russians in control of most of the city. Ukrainian resistance is stubborn, but may prove futile, much as was the case in Mariupol.  If Severodonetsk falls, Russia will control Luhansk Province.  On February 21, three days before his "special military operation" began, Putin announced that Russia recognized Luhansk and Donetsk as "independent" countries, promising them "protection" from Ukrainian aggression. In both of the Donbas regions there is a heavy presence of Russian-speaking peoples who had resented Ukrainian rule. 

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(Author's comment:  Before continuing, just a reminder.  Earlier in this reading it was indicated that Russia's history has in large part been based on xenophobic expansion. Again, the rationale here is that we are not safe until we control the peoples around us. Oh good, we conquered them. Wait. There are now others around us. We have to conquer them. That xenophobia seemingly has fed Russian autocracy ever since the Mongol invasions of the 13th century. The autocracy then perpetuates and strengthens itself through that xenophobia. Clearly an autocrat, Putin sees Russia surrounded by potential enemies. His having provoked war with Ukraine intensifies that concept.  The application of Sweden and Finland for NATO membership, the extent through which NATO countries have been providing Ukraine with weapons, and the extent to which EU countries have applied business sanctions on Russia, all, from Putin's perspective, demonstrate hostility.  

We may very well see Putin's dictatorship become stronger, even if the conflict stalemates into a long and vicious war of attrition.  That begs another question. If the war does stalemate, will Ukraine's allies gradually lose interest as the war begins to affect their own economies?  Americans are reminded of the twenty-plus years-long wars in Vietnam and Afghanistan, wars that cost billions of dollars and thousands of deaths and casualties, both without victory.  If our present economic and social concerns: rapid inflation in the costs of living, gasoline shortages, racial injustice, and the extreme partisanship of American politics take precedence, Putin's war in Ukraine could very likely see a Russian victory.) 

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June16 update: In a renewed demonstration of international support for Ukraine, the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, and Romania met with President Zelenskyy in Kyiv.  French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and Italian Premier Mario Draghi were joined by Romanian President Klaus Iohannis, who had already been in the capital. All four nations are members of both the EU and NATO.  While not committing themselves to the specifics, Macron, Scholz, and Draghi all affirmed that their countries would continue to provide humanitarian and, to varying degrees,  military assistance. 

Macron and Scholz, however, did not express support for Zelenskyy's request that they urge acceleration of Ukraine's bid to join the EU.  Germany, very much dependent upon natural gas from Russia, has been slow to provide arms.  Earlier, on June 4, Macron stated that the international response must not "humiliate" Russia. "We must not humiliate Russia so that the day when the fighting stops we can build an exit ramp through diplomatic means,"... "I am convinced that it is France's role to be a mediating power." (quotation source: Reuters)  Macron's remarks at the time were widely criticized as cozying up to Moscow.   

 June 21 update: Heavy fighting continued in the Donbas as Ukrainian forces struggled to keep a foothold in besieged Severodonetsk.  Reminiscent of the siege of Mariupol, the focus of combat is the Azot chemical plant where an unknown number of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians have taken refuge in the plant’s underground air raid shelters. Fighting also continues in southern Ukraine in those areas held by Russian forces since the conquest of the port cities of Kherson and Mariupol.

On June 17 the European Union announced that it would accept Ukraine’s bid for membership. The process of securing membership, however, is based on complex economic and social requirements which may prove difficult for Ukraine to fulfill under its present circumstances.  Moscow views the EU as a reflection of Western efforts to isolate and contain Russia. 

On June 17 Lithuania announced that it would cut off land transport of EU sanctioned commodities from Russia to the Russian oblast Kaliningrad.  Kaliningrad’s governor stated that “The EU sanctions list includes coal, metals, construction materials, and advanced technology would cover around 50% of the items that Kaliningrad imports”. (quotation source: BBC News)  The Lithuanian ban does not apply to proscribed goods imported by sea.

The Russian Foreign Ministry responded to the blockade as “openly hostile”, saying, "If cargo transit between the Kaliningrad region and the rest of the Russian Federation via Lithuania is not fully restored in the near future, then Russia reserves the right to take actions to protect its national interests." (quotation source: BBC News) 

On the Baltic coast, Kaliningrad is a part of Russia that is separated from Russia by Lithuania and Poland. While not part of Russia geographically, it is as much a part of Russia as Alaska is part of the US. The Russian term for an administrative region such as Kaliningrad is oblast.  In reconstructing Eastern European borders at the end of World War Two, the Allies agreed to the Soviet demand that the former German port city of Königsburg be part of Russia.  The city was then renamed for Mikhail Kalinin, a Bolshevik hero and a former president of the Russian Soviet Federated Republic when Russia was part of the Soviet Union. Kaliningrad is of strategic importance to Russia as it is the home base of the Russian Baltic Fleet and Russia’s only ice-free port on the Baltic.  Both Lithuania and Poland are members of NATO. 

On June 17 Putin delivered a long address, described by one source as “fiery and sardonic”, at the 25th meeting of the St Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF).  The annual SPIEF is a gathering of international business and political leaders to address matters of common economic concern.  Although delegations of US and European states have attended in the past, they were not represented at this meeting. Putin used the occasion to attack the West and defend Russia’s role in the current war with Ukraine. 

In short, he slammed the EU members as having surrendered their sovereignty to the interests of the US.  "When they won the Cold War”, Putin said, “the US declared themselves God's own representatives on earth, people who have no responsibilities -- only interests. They have declared those interests sacred. Now it's one-way traffic, which makes the world unstable…They live in the past on their own under their own delusions ... They think that ... they have won and then everything else is a colony, a back yard. And the people living there are second-class citizens …"

Later in his speech he justified Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine. Russia was “forced” to invade Ukraine to protect "our citizens, residents of the People's Republics of Donbas (Luhansk and Donetsk), who for eight years were subjected to genocide by the Kyiv regime and neo-Nazis who received the full protection of the West …” Russia made "the decision of a sovereign country that has an unconditional right to defend its security." Other aspects of his speech condemned the West for waging war against Russia using food as a weapon by denying Russian shipping (of stolen Ukrainian grain) through the Black Sea to markets in the Middle East and Africa. He also condemned the EU for its sanctioning of Russian commerce but assured his audience that the Russian economy remained strong despite the restrictions. (quotations source: CNN News)

June 24 update:  On June 24 Ukraine announced that it would be withdrawing its forces from the embattled city of Severodonetsk, in effect conceding defeat in the face of the  Russian siege.  Unlike Mariupol, where the Ukrainian defenders were ordered to surrender, Kyiv announced that the withdrawal is a tactical retreat and the troops will be repositioned.  Most likely, they will assist in the defense of the near-by city of Lysychansk which has also been under an intense Russian siege.  Severodonetsk and Lysychansk are key to Ukraine's weakening hold on Luhansk.  With Luhansk under Russian control, it is anticipated that the fighting will shift to the Donetsk cities of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. 

June 27 update:  On June 25 President Biden flew to Europe to attend the annual meeting of the leaders of the Group of Seven (G 7), June 26-28, at Elmau in Germany’s Bavarian Alps. The primary topics for discussion center on the economic impact of the war in Ukraine. As Germany is the host, it has the privilege of inviting other nations to attend as "partners". This year German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has invited Senegal, Argentina, Indonesia, India and South Africa. Why those nations? Many countries of the global south are concerned about the collateral damage from western sanctions. An EU official said G 7 countries would impress upon the partner countries that food price spikes hitting them were the result of Russia's actions and that there were no sanctions targeting food. It was also a mistake to think of the Ukraine war as a local matter.  

        (What is the G 7?  Founded in 1973, the G 7 is made up of seven of the world’s major economic powers and meets periodically to discuss economic and monetary concerns. Its members are the US, UK (Britain), France, Germany, Italy, Canada, and Japan. Russia belonged to the group from 1997 to 2014, temporarily making it the G 8.  However, Russia was expelled in 2014 when it invaded Ukraine and occupied and annexed the Crimea. Unlike the EU or NATO, the G 7 is not a formal organization and seeks consensus among its members in finding solutions to problems. China, Brazil, and India, all major economic powers, are not part of G 7, although membership for Brazil and India has been suggested. The G 7 members are all democracies, and that is certainly a factor in consideration of expanding membership.)

On June 26 the British news agency Reuters reported that the G 7 "moved to ban imports of Russian gold as part of efforts to tighten the sanctions squeeze on Moscow and cut off its means of financing the invasion of Ukraine". The targets of the ban are the Russian oligarchs. "We need to starve the Putin regime of its funding," said British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. 

As Germany is the G 7 host, it has the privilege of inviting other nations to attend as "partners". This year German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has invited Senegal, Argentina, Indonesia, India and South Africa. Why those nations?  Reuters states that "Many countries of the global south are concerned about the collateral damage from western sanctions. An EU official said G 7 countries would impress upon the partner countries that food price spikes hitting them were the result of Russia's actions and that there were no sanctions targeting food. It was also a mistake to think of the Ukraine war as a local matter." 

Beyond Ukraine, the G 7 leaders are also looking into an international infrastructure and investment partnership that would strengthen Western development in Asian and African countries. Heavy with geo-strategic implications, such development would counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative (CBRI).

Launched in 2013, the CBRI provides loans and investments for internal improvements, primarily of roads, railways, and ports. In effect, CBRI seeks a modern revitalization of the ancient overland “Silk Route” connecting China with Europe. Port development would create a maritime belt, facilitating China’s economic (and influential) expansion in Southeast Asia, the Indian Sub-Continent, the Middle East, and Africa.  

(Author's comment: So why does this matter in the context of the Russo-Ukrainian war? China is a world economic powerhouse.  It is opportunistic in the exercise of power, free to pick and choose with whom it will deal. It is also a Communist dictatorship, so debate in policy making is never an issue. Both Russia and the West need China.  Were Machiavelli still with us, he would say, “See? That’s how the means-end, good of the state works” (only in Italian, of course). The war and the European Union’s sanctions of Russia and Russia’s retaliation (cutting back shipments of natural gas, for example), have caused economic hardship beyond the conflict, particularly regarding energy in Europe and food shortages in the Middle East and Africa.  The longer the war goes, the more it is to China’s advantage.  The G 7’s infrastructure initiative may be too little too late.)  

In a statement addressing the food crisis brought on by the war, the G 7 leaders pledged some $4.5 billion in assistance.  "We, the leaders of the G 7, will spare no effort to increase global food and nutrition security and to protect the most vulnerable, whom the food crisis threatens to hit the hardest." (quotation source: NBC News) Other than "We're working on it" (Boris Johnson), the G 7 had no answer to how food shipments from Ukraine might be resumed. 

The G 7 also denounced a Russian rocket attack that on June 26 targeted a shopping mall in the central Ukrainian city of Kremenchuk. Eighteen civilians were killed and another 50 were injured. "We, the Leaders of the G 7, solemnly condemn the abominable attack on a shopping mall in Kremenchuk"...."We stand united with Ukraine in mourning the innocent victims of this brutal attack"...."Indiscriminate attacks on innocent civilians constitute a war crime"...."Russian President Putin and those responsible will be held to account." (quotation source: Newsweek)

On June 28, at a NATO meeting in Madrid, Turkey announced that it now approves NATO membership for Sweden and Finland. The issue blocking Turkish support had been Kurdish terrorists. (See May 17 above.) The terms of agreement have not yet been made public, but Turkey is satisfied that its demands are being addressed by the two Scandinavian countries.  The Russian Foreign Ministry called the future expansion of NATO "destabilizing" and "aggressive containment " to which  Russia will take "compensatory measures." (quotation source: UPI News)

Not only will NATO be expanded, it will be strengthened. In an address to the NATO conference, President Biden announced that the United States "will enhance our force posture in Europe and respond to the changing security environment as well as strengthening our collective security.” (quotation source: USA Today) To this end the US will establish a permanent military garrison in Poland and increase its military presence in Romania. Two squadrons of US fighter jets will be sent to Britain and air and radar systems will be provided for German and Italy.  The US would also "enhance" its rotational military deployments to the Baltic states.  

July 4 update: The Russian siege of Lysychansk ended when Ukrainian forces were ordered to withdraw from that battered city. All major cities in Luhansk are now under Russian control.  As were the earlier battles for Mariupol and Severodonetsk, the defense of Lysychansk became untenable. The retreating Ukrainian troops may be repositioned for the defense of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, key cities in Donetsk. Both cities are under Russian artillery fire. 

NATO membership for Finland and Sweden is now in the hands of the legislatures of the 30-member alliance. All must approve membership before admission is final. Turkey may still prove an obstacle as there might be in-house partisan opposition relating to the Kurdish terrorist issue. (See May 17 above.)

July 8 update: The war in Ukraine became the major focus of yet another international conference, a meeting of the G 20. A special session of the G 20 convened on July 7 on Bali, an island that is part of Indonesia.

(What is the G 20?  Meeting periodically since 1999, the Group of Twenty represents those nations with the world’s wealthiest economies. The primary objective of the G 20 is addressing issues affecting global financial stability.  Its membership consists of 19 countries and the European Union.  Foreign ministers, finance ministers, and central bank governors are the primary G 20 delegates. (The central bank of the US is the Federal Reserve System.)  The G 20 are:  Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, South Korea, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, the United Kingdom (Britain), the US, and the European Union.  (While the EU is 27 countries, it has only single representation in the G 20.) There are also permanent guest invitees that include Spain, the UN, the World Bank, the African Union, and others. The “guest invitees” are allowed to participate but not vote. Other nations may be invited to participate in G 20 gatherings. This year Indonesia is the G 20 host. The wealthiest G 20 economies are the US and China. With the admission of a single representation for the African Union, the G-20 would become the G-21 in September, 2023. See Sept. 9, 2023 below.) 

The July 7 G 20 opening session saw an angry tirade by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. The west’s arming of Ukraine, the EU sanctions of Russian trade and blaming Russia for the global food crisis, Lavrov stated, clearly demonstrate western hostility towards Russia. “If the west doesn’t want talks to take place but wishes for Ukraine to defeat Russia on the battlefield – because both views have been expressed – then perhaps there is nothing to talk about with the west.” (quotation source: The Guardian News Website)  Lavrov’s remarks were made in response to previous comments by other G 20 members criticizing the Russian invasion of Ukraine as unprovoked aggression and causing a threat to global economic well-being.  When the German Foreign Minister rose to speak, Lavrov left the meeting.

A G 20 summit meeting has been scheduled for early November in Indonesia. It is not known if either Biden or Putin will attend. (Curious? See November 11!) 

July 10 update: On July 10 the United Nations reported some 71 million more people are “experiencing poverty as a result of soaring food and energy prices that climbed in the weeks following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.” …. “In low-income countries, families spend 42% of their household incomes on food but as Western nations moved to sanction Russia, the price of fuel and staple food items like wheat, sugar and cooking oil soared. Ukraine's blocked ports and its inability to export grains to low-income countries further drove up prices, pushing tens of millions quickly into poverty. The total number of people living in poverty, or are vulnerable to poverty, stands at over 5 billion, or just under 70% of the world’s population.” (quotation source: The Associated Press)  

July 11 update:  The war, of course, does not stop for international conferencing.    As we have seen, since the start of hostilities in February Russia's strategy includes attacks on civilian populations.  On July 9 Russian rockets struck an apartment complex in Chasiv Yar, a town in Donetsk. The attack killed 48 civilians and injured many more.  Russia claimed the buildings were housing military personnel.  Other rocket strikes targeted Kharkiv, hitting a school and other buildings, none of which had military purpose.  The school was not in session at the time. Kharkiv is Ukraine's second largest city and had not been under attack since early in the war.  

On July 9 Gazprom, the major producer and exporter of Russian natural gas, announced that it was shutting down the Nord Stream pipeline system to Germany for ten days of "scheduled maintenance."  Germany suspects that the shutdown is politically motivated in retaliation for a German accusation that Putin is using "gas as a weapon".  Italy also reported that its Gazprom imports have decreased by 50%. "The head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, has warned that Russia may cut off gas supplies to Europe entirely and that Europe needs to prepare now". (quotation source: BBC News)

Nord Stream is a system of undersea pipelines connecting Germany and Russia.  See map below. 

We need a little humor.  No more Big Macs (Macskys)?  On May 16 MacDonald's sold its assets in Russia.  MacDonald's had already closed its 850 locations in March but continued to pay its 62,000 Russian employees.   MacDonald's had operated in Russia since 1990. The purchaser was billionaire  businessman Alexander Govor, a true oligarch owning multiple industries.  In June, under a new franchise called “Vkusno i Tochka,” which translates to "Tasty and That's It,'' the former MacDonald's began reopening in select cities. Customers thronged to the new restaurants and seemed pleased with the traditional menus.  However, many Russians were disappointed that MacDonald's refused to sell Govor the rights to the sale of Big Macs and the Russian substitute just did not compare.  (So ... Nyet, no more Big Macskys!)  You want fries with that?  Also, nyet! On July the Russian news agency TASS reported that some of the restaurants won't be serving French fries until the fall because of a shortage of the required type of potatoes. 

July 14 update:  On July 13 US Secretary of State Antony Blinken claimed that Russia has deported from 900,000 to 1.6 million Ukrainian citizens from occupied regions of Ukraine in a systemic “filtration” operation. Of these deportees, Blinken said, "roughly a quarter of a million ... are children." He attributed the data to “a variety of sources, including the Russian government." "Eyewitnesses and survivors of 'filtration' operations, detentions, and forced deportations report frequent threats, harassment, and incidents of torture by Russian security forces," Blinken continued. "During this process, Russian authorities also reportedly capture and store biometric and personal data, subject civilians to invasive searches and interrogations and coerce Ukrainian citizens into signing agreements to stay in Russia, hindering their ability to freely return home." (quotation source, the Washington Examiner) Russia's "filtration" policy is mentioned above. See mid-April.) 

Under United Nations auspices, delegations from Ukraine and Russia met in Turkey to discuss a possible ending of the impasse over blockaded Ukrainian grain shipments. On July 13 UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres sees the talks as a "critical step forward .... More technical work will now be needed ... but the momentum is clear. " (quotation source, The Washington Post)  

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that on July 15 Russian missiles struck the southern Ukrainian city of Mykolaiv, hitting two local universities.  "The attack in Mykolaiv came as rescue workers continued to dig through rubble in the central Ukrainian city of Vinnytsia, after a Russian airstrike on July 14 killed at least 23 people and injured scores of others, according to Ukrainian officials.  Ukrainian President  Zelenskyy said at least three children under the age of 10 were among those killed" .... “This day once again proved that Russia must be officially recognized as a terrorist state,” Mr. Zelenskyy said in a video posted online. “No other state in the world allows itself to destroy peaceful cities and ordinary human life with cruise missiles and rocket artillery every day.”  A member of the Russian delegation to the UN denied that Russia targets civilian populations. 

The WSJ also reported that on July 14 Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi offered to resign after his government lost its majority in the Italian parliament. The issue was political disagreement over how much aid Italy should provide Ukraine. Draghi has been a strong proponent of military and financial assistance.  Italy's president Sergio Matarella said he would not accept Draghi's resignation. 

Speaking of resignations, British Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson announced his resignation on July 7. Controversial at best, Johnson's government had been rocked by long-time allegations of inappropriate conduct by the PM and his lying in his defense.  Earlier that week numerous members of his administration resigned and other high-ranking members of Johnson's Conservative Party called for him to go.  PM since 2019, Johnson led the movement for "Brexit", Britain's 2020 withdrawal (exit) from the European Union.  (Britain had been part of the EU since 1973.)  Brexit, however, did not make Britain "great again" as Johnson had promised in campaigning for the Conservative Party in the 2019 elections. He stated that he would remain PM until the next elections in October.  Most political observers believe he will step down before then.  He did, leaving office on Sept 6.  Johnson had been one of the strongest advocates for assisting in Ukraine's defense. His political critics claim that the Brexit failure to make Britain great again made Johnson a pawn of the US as Britain, cut off from the benefits of open European commerce, became more dependent on the US, hence his strong stand on aid to Ukraine. 

(Johnson's successor as Prime Minister was Liz Truss, former MP for West Norfolk. Her administration lasted only 50 days before she stepped down on October 25. Rishi Sunak, MP for Richmond (Yorkshire) was named Prime Minister.)

 Despite frequent reports of Russia’s ground troops being in an “operational pause”, sporadic fighting continues along all fronts in the Donbas as well as in the south. President Zelenskyy has warned of increased air and missile attacks and Russian President Putin announced that Russia’s offensive has not “started in earnest yet.”

 The Washington Post reported that US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan announced on July 16 that the US has intelligence that Russia has been negotiating with Iran to purchase hundreds of Iranian-made armed “attack-capable” drones.  Iran denied the accusation as “baseless.” There is the likelihood that a weapons deal is in the making. 

 On July 19 Putin, making his first trip outside Russia since 2020, traveled to Tehran to meet with Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.   CBS News reported that Khamenei offered "staunch support" for Russia's war in Ukraine, saying that had not Russia sent troops in Ukraine, NATO would certainly have attacked Russia. Since the overthrow of the Shah in 1979 the radically theological regime in Teheran has been adamant in its public hatred of the United States. "Death to America" is a common catchphrase in public rallies and demonstrations. Iran has long been under economic sanctions as western nations are opposed to Iran's efforts to develop a nuclear weapon and the perceived threat of Iran to Israel and the Arab nations of the Persian/Arabian Gulf region.  While in Tehran, Putin also met with Turkish President Erdogan, who was in Iran at the time. 

On July 20 Ukraine's First Lady, Olena Zelenska, speaking before Congress in Washington, made a passionate appeal for increased American military and humanitarian assistance. Her address was supplemented with photos of Russian atrocities against Ukrainian women and children. 

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that on July 22, diplomatic representatives of Ukraine and Russia, meeting under UN and Turkish auspices in Istanbul, came to an agreement on the resumption of grain exports. The Russian blockade of Ukraine's Black Sea ports must, in some way, be relaxed to permit grain ships from Ukraine to have access to open sea.  (See updates for May 31 and June 7 above.)  "The agreement could free up about 18 million tons of wheat, corn and other supplies that have been stuck at Ukrainian ports and grain silos for weeks. Grain analysts have said they expect it could take weeks for grain shipments to begin flowing again, if both sides remain committed to the deal." (quotation source: WSJ)  

Under the agreement, known as the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Turkish, Ukrainian and UN personnel will supervise the loading of grain ships at the Ukrainian ports of Odesa, Chernomosk, and Pivdenyi before sailing a pre-planned route across the Black Sea to the Bosporus Strait in Turkey.  A joint UN, Russian, Turkish, and Ukrainian coordination center in Istanbul will be responsible for screening ships bound for Ukraine to ensure that they are not carrying weapons.

Despite the agreement, on July 23 Russian rockets struck sites in Odesa, Ukraine's major Black Sea port.  "It’s obvious that the agreement with Russia is not even worth the paper it was signed on…Russia is a terrorist state," said Ukraine’s ambassador to Turkey, Vasyl Bodnar, who was present at the signing of the agreement.  Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Oleg Nikolenko said the attack on Odesa was like spitting in the face of the U.N. and Turkey, which facilitated and hosted the negotiations. 'We urge the U.N. and Turkey to ensure Russia’s compliance with its obligations to provide a safe corridor for the grain exports." (quotation source: WSJ).  

Is Russia adding to strategic objectives?  USA Today reported (July 25) that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in a speech to the Arab League summit meeting in Cairo, that it is seeking regime change.  The target of Russia's war, Lavrov said, is Zelenskyy's  "absolutely unacceptable regime"..."We feel sorry for the Ukrainian people, who deserve far better .... We feel sorry for Ukrainian history, which is collapsing before our eyes". Previously, Russia had stated that its war aims were to liberate the Donbas and southern regions of  Ukraine.  

July 28 update: While Ukraine prepares for an offensive to retake the southern seaport Kherson, the Kyiv region experienced another wave of Russian rocket strikes. Ukraine claimed that the rockets were fired from locations in Belarus.  Belarus denied the claim. 

Even as rocket attacks have become part of daily life near the fighting in the country’s south and east, the capital has returned to something resembling normalcy. Locals often take little note of the air-raid sirens, continuing to sip their coffee at sidewalk cafes as the warnings blare. Oleksii Kuleba, governor of the Kyiv region, said the strike on Thursday was a reminder that the war wasn’t over, even in Kyiv.  “I urge you again, do not ignore the alarm signals—go down to the shelter,” he wrote on Telegram. “The war continues. The enemy continues to sneak missile strikes.” (quotation source, The Wall Street Journal)

July 28 is Ukraine's national holiday. Officially called the Day of Ukrainian Statehood, the holiday was proclaimed by President Zelenskyy on July 28, 2021. That date was chosen, he said, because it was on July 28 in 988 AD, that the Prince Vladimir of Kyiv converted to Eastern Orthodox Christianity. Vladimir, however, is also regarded as a founder of the Russian state.  Hence, Putin's claim that Ukraine and Russia are “one historical and spiritual space.”  (Recommended here is another look at Chapter 7 on the Origins of Russia.)  The Wall Street Journal quotes a taunting response to Zelenskyy by Maria Zakharova, a spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, "“Prince Volodymyr" (a reference to Zelenskyy)," then don’t be offended that part of Ukraine will be called Rus. You said it yourself.” 

July 29 Ukraine reported that the Russians purposely destroyed their own prisoner of war (POW) facility in the Donbas village of Olenivka. Explosions in the building killed 50 and injured another 75 prisoners. Those killed and injured were mostly Ukrainian soldiers who had surrendered at the end of siege of Mariupol in May. Russia reported eight prison guards were wounded.  Claiming evidence of US-made HiMAR shell fragments found in the wreckage, Russia blamed Ukraine for the attack, its purpose being to silence Ukrainian POWs who might share military information with their captors .  Ukraine denied any responsibility, responding that the shell fragments could have been planted and that photos of the building do not reflect damage caused by an external attack.  Ukraine suggested that the attack may have been the responsibility of Russian mercenaries known as the “Wagner Group.”

Despite its Germanic name, the Wagner Group is a private Russian paramilitary force. It was officially “founded” in 2014 by one Dmitri Utkin, a former Russian army officer known to be part of the GRU (the Russian Military Foreign Intelligence organization). Much like the US Special Forces (e.g. Green Berets and Navy Seals), the Wagner functions as an elite fighting force.  Although funded by and responsible to the Russian Ministry of Defense, Wagner denies any direct connection with the Russian government. Its military activity began with the Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014 and has since conducted very lucrative operations in Syria, Libya, the Central African Republic, and Mali.  

Instrumental in Wagner’s origin, development, and command is Yevgeny Prigozhin. Prigozhin is among that Russian billionaire oligarchy through whom Putin rose and holds power. Making his fortune in the casino gambling, grocery, restaurant, and catering industries, he became known as “Putin’s chef.” How he became the leader of Wagner remains unclear. His biography reflects no military service.  He claims that he founded the group and made Dmitri Utkin, one of his business managers, its commander. If so, Utkin’s role is purely honorary.  The reality is that Prigozhin is and always had been its commander.  He would build Wagner as a powerful military force with thousands of recruits (including jailed prisoners) attracted by salaries exceeding the compensation received by soldiers in the regular army.  Later in the war Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenaries would provide essential, if not decisive, battlefront support for the Russian war in Ukraine.  He would also challenge Putin for control of the country. (See June 2023.)  

(author's comment: In 2018 Prigozhin was indicted by the US Treasury Department and Special Counsel Robert Mueller for interference in the 2016 Presidential election. Prigozhin (with Putin's blessing, to be sure) had created an organization known as the Internet Research Agency (IRA) to spread disinformation intended to influence the election.  It was in Putin's interest to have Republican candidate Donald Trump win, and the IRA targeted his Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton with allegations of corruption.  While there's a US warrant for Prigozhin's arrest, it is meaningless outside of US jurisdiction.) 

July 30 The United Press International (UPI) reported that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy made a public appeal to the people of the Donbas to leave the region and relocate to the west.  He hinted that this appeal may become a "mandatory" evacuation. "The sooner it is done, the more people leave Donetsk region now, the fewer people the Russian army will have time to kill," Zelenskyy urged Ukrainians to plead with family members who remain in the Donbas to leave "especially if they are families with children.".... "We are not Russia. That is why every life is important for us. And we will use all available opportunities to save as many lives as possible and to limit Russian terror as much as possible."

The  UPI also reported that the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights said that at least Ukrainian 5,237 civilians have been confirmed to have been killed since Russia invaded in February. Of those, 348 are reported to be children with more than 560 children injured.  Data from the UN High Commissioner for Refugees shows that more than 6,162,309 individual refugees have fled Ukraine since February. 

Some good news, we hope!  On August 1 the BBC reported a shipment of Ukrainian grain departed Odesa by sea.  Bound for the Lebanese port of Tripoli, the bulk carrier Rizoni with 26,000 tons of grain is the first vessel to sail under the July 22nd UN-brokered agreement. Russia and Ukraine jointly produce nearly a third of global wheat supplies. Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called the shipment a "relief for the world" and urged Moscow to "respect its part of the deal". Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters in Moscow that the ship's departure was a "very positive" development. 

We have seen evidence of Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilians since the war began. But …  On August 3 Amnesty International (AI) issued a report that that the Ukrainian military's tactics "violate international humanitarian law and endanger civilians" AI Secretary General Agnès Callamard stated that "We have documented a pattern of Ukrainian forces putting civilians at risk and violating the laws of war when they operate in populated areas" …."Being in a defensive position does not exempt the Ukrainian military from respecting international humanitarian law." Between April and July AI investigators on site in the Kharkiv, Mykoliav, and Donbas regions cited evidence of Ukrainian forces operating in civilian facilities (including schools and hospitals) in some 19 towns and villages. (quotation source, Newsweek)  (authors’ comment: Suffice it to say, the ends justify the means, don’t they.)

  What is Amnesty International?  AI is an international non-governmental focused on human rights founded in 1961 with headquarters in London.  Its mission statement is to campaign for "a world in which every person enjoys all of the human rights enshrined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (1948) and all other international agreements on human rights.  AI has some 10 million members globally and pursues its goals through direct-appeal campaigns, research, on-site investigation, and lobbying. 

On August 5 Oksana Pokalchuk, the head of Ukraine's Amnesty International chapter, announced Ukraine's withdrawal from the AI.  She denounced the June 5 report as failing to recognize the realities of the war in Ukraine. And, because the report was released without giving the Ukrainian defense ministry adequate time to respond, AI had made it a "tool of Russian propaganda." (quotation source, USA Today)  

Fighting continued in the southern region as Ukraine seeks to recapture the port city of Kherson and other Russian-occupied areas along the eastern and southern regions along the Dnieper River. Of great concern is the renewed fighting around and in Zaporizhzhia, the site of the largest nuclear power plant in both Ukraine and Europe. Russia captured Zaporizhzhia early in the war, but the fighting in the area raised alarm as the plant was hit by rockets causing a fire that threatened one of the plant's nuclear reactors. Both Russia and Ukraine accuse the other of launching new rocket strikes in and near the plant. It is feared that electrical power disruptions affecting the plant's reactors could cause a nuclear disaster.  

On a more positive side of the war's story, some seven grain-laden ships have departed from Ukrainian Black Sea ports since August 1. The ships, bound for ports in the Middle East and Asia, must first stop just north of Istanbul for inspection as per the July 22 UN-brokered accord. The first vessel bound for famine-stricken Ethiopia departed on August 16. 

In an unusual turn in the war, on August 9 two unexplained explosions destroyed some eight combat aircraft at the Russian air base in Saky on the western coast of Crimea.  Unusual because Crimea, taken from Ukraine in the 2014 invasion and annexed by Russia, is now considered part of Russia, and Ukraine's policy to date has been not to attack targets in Russia.  Ukraine denied responsibility for the attack.  In response to celebratory comments,  President Zelenskyy publicly warned military and government officials not to make unauthorized public announcements on Ukrainian military operations.  "War is definitely not the time for vanity and loud statements. The fewer details you divulge about our defense plans, the better it will be for the implementation of those defense plans." Earlier in July, former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev, stated that were Crimea attacked, "Judgement Day will instantly await". (quotations source: BBC News)

Aside from Crimea, Zelenskyy urged the international community to act immediately to "chase out" Russian troops from the occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. That is not going to happen, but the G 7 (see June 26 above) and UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres have called for Russia to make the plant a neutral ground  under the administration of the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). That, most likely, will not happen either.  

On August 16 Russian news sources reported explosions at a munitions depot and a fire at a nearby power grid substation in the Dzhankoi region of Crimea.  Ukraine denied having conducted any rocket strikes in Crimea. On the Kherson battlefront both Russia and Ukraine are claiming success in their respective campaigns. Ukraine says its attacks against key Dnieper River bridges have drastically reduced Russia's ability to reinforce and supply its forces in the city. Russia denies rumors that its high command in Kherson is abandoning the city. We need also be reminded that fighting continues in the Donetsk region in Eastern Ukraine.  

Reports (August 18) of explosions at a munitions depot some 15 miles beyond the Ukrainian border in Russia's Belgorod province have given rise to additional accusations and denials that Ukraine is attacking targets inside Russia.  The attacks may be actions by paramilitary guerrilla forces supported by the Ukrainian army.  Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, in a televised announcement, stated that Ukraine's attacks in Crimea mark "an escalation of the conflict openly encouraged  by the United States and its NATO allies. " (quotation source, Los Angeles Times).  

UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres and Turkish President Recep Erdogan met with Zelenskyy in Lviv on August 18. In remarks to Turkish journalists, Erdogan reported that Zelenskyy asked him to appeal to Russia to demilitarize the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.  Yevgeny Balitsky, Russia's acting governor of the Zaporizhkzhia region, stated that Russia would permit inspectors from the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency to enter the plant from Ukraine. Russian officials in Vienna (headquarters of the IAEA) indicated that UN personnel could visit the plant in early September. At the same time, however, Russia ordered most of Russian personnel at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant not to report to work on Friday, August 19. There was no reason given for the command, giving rise to speculation that Russia may shut down electricity distribution across those areas served by the plant. 

Guterres also visited Odesa's port area to inspect the operation of Ukrainian grain shipments. Some 25 grain-laden ships have departed from Ukrainian ports since August 1. The export of Ukrainian grain and other agricultural products is the result of a UN sponsored agreement between Ukraine, Turkey, and Russia on July 22. 

Russian news media expressed popular outrage at the August 20 car-bombing death of Daria Dugina, a Russian TV commentator and daughter of Alexander Dugin, one of Putin's most outspoken allies.  Dugina, age 29, was a popular journalist, known for her hardline support for Putin's war in Ukraine. She had been attending a music festival and was driving home when the bomb exploded. Her father, seen as Putin's propagandist and popularly known as  known as "Putin's Brain" and "Putin's Rasputin", may have been the intended target of the attack.  The Russian FSB (Federal Security Service) quickly identified the bomber as Natalia Vovk, a Ukrainian woman who fled to Estonia.   Vovk, the FSB, said had moved into the same Moscow apartment building where Dugina lived a month before the bombing. Dugina had borrowed her father's car to attend the concert. Ukraine denied any responsibility for the attack.  Fearing Russian reprisal, Zelenskyy ordered Ukrainian government personnel to work from home over the next week. 

On Aug 22  Reuters reported that to date nearly 9000 Ukrainian military personnel have been killed since the war began on February 24.  That figure was announcement by General Valeryy Zaluzhnyy, Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, at a conference honoring the families of war veterans. The figure did not include a broader number of casualties of those wounded. This was the first time since the war began that Ukraine had publicly reported military deaths.  Ukraine claims that in the same period Russian forces have lost some 45,400.  Neither figure is verifiable.   

In anticipation of an intensive wave of Russian attacks on August 24, Ukraine's Independence Day, the US Embassy in Kyiv urged that Americans leave the country.  (Ukraine declared its independence from the Soviet Union on August 24, 1991.)  While President Zelenskyy warned that Russia may attempt a “particularly cruel” assault, the day passed with only sporadic rocket attacks on cities across the country, much like any other day since the war began.  

Concerns for the vulnerability of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant intensified as electricity to and from the plant was interrupted.  Earlier Moscow ordered most of the Russian technicians at the plant not to report to work on Friday, August 19. (The plant is operated primarily by Ukrainian personnel but under the control of armed Russian guards. Supervision of the plant is by Russian administrators.)  On August 25  Zaporizhzhia went off grid for the first time in its 40-year history. Power was lost in some areas served by the plant. Russia claimed that a fire caused by Ukrainian shelling cut the electrical transmission lines to the plant, forcing it to use backup diesel-fueled generators that not only enabled power restoration but kept the reactors working. If any one of the plant's six reactors loses power, a meltdown would cause a disastrous radiation release. Ukraine denied any attack on the plant. A second shutdown, again temporary, occurred on August 26.  Local authorities began the distribution of iodine pills to some 400,000 people in the nearby city of Enerhodar and elsewhere within a 35-mile radius of the plant. 

Under Russian escort, a UN team of 13 inspectors, led by IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi, arrived the plant on September 1.  Grossi is from Argentina and most of the other team members are from neutral countries.  Just prior to their arrival there was shelling in the plant's vicinity. Both Russia and Ukraine accused the other of the attack. Ukraine claimed that the Russians purposely launched the attack to intimidate Ukrainian plant personnel from cooperating with the inspectors.  The UN visit lasted one day.  On returning to Vienna (IAEA headquarters), Grossi commented "We've seen what I requested to see - everything I requested to see." (quotation source: Associated Press)  He added that the plant's physical integrity, the power supply to the facility, and the morale of the plant's technicians remained of great concern. A report would be issued on Sept. 6. 

On the background of the IAEA visit, Turkish President Erdogan contacted Putin and offered to be the "facilitator" regarding future discussions on the status of the Zaporizhzhia plant. 

The war continues with a renewed Ukrainian assault on Russian positions in the Kherson region.  Fighting continues in the Donbas.  

Former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev died in Moscow on August 30. Putin did not attend the Sept.1 funeral nor did he call for a state funeral. A state funeral would require the attendance of foreign heads of state.  (Gorbachev's administration and policies are discussed in chapter 29, The End of the Cold War.)

On Sept 1 Russia issued a stiff warning to Moldova not to threaten its "peace-keeping" troops in eastern Moldova's Transdniestria region.  (The Transdniestria issue is discussed in the April section above.) 

Sept 6  The IAEA inspection report on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant was issued by the UN. The main points, as reported by Ukrainian sources, are listed here.

All parties must agree to create a protective zone around the ZNPP to avoid damage.

The IAEA is ready to immediately start consultations on creating such a zone.

Continued shelling can damage important equipment and lead to an unlimited release of radioactive materials.

Damage to oil tanks for turbines and to several facilities where spent and fresh nuclear fuel is located.

All other Ukrainian nuclear power plants, except for Zaporizhzhia  (and, of course, Chernobyl), continue to operate safely.  (There are three other operating plants in Ukraine.  Ukraine is dependent on nuclear power generating about half of its electricity.) 

“Ukrainian staff operating the plant under Russian military occupation are under constant high stress and pressure, especially with the limited staff available,” the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said. “This is not sustainable and could lead to increased human error with implications for nuclear safety.” (quotation source: Freedom - a Ukrainian news source)

The Ukrainian offensive in the east continued with some significant gains in the Kharkiv region of the Donbas. The campaign is targeting Russian communications and supply centers.  Likewise, the southern campaign to retake Kherson continued to press forward. 

The economic warfare likewise continued.  On Sept. 2 Russia's Gazprom announced another shut down of the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline to Germany.  Again for maintenance, Gazprom reported, and until further notice. The Wall Street Journal reported that "Moscow has reduced gas supplies to Europe since June, blaming Western sanctions imposed in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for preventing maintenance of the Nord Stream pipeline.

In Moscow on Sept 10, Vladimir Putin presided over a ceremony celebrating the 875th anniversary of the city's founding.  This event gave rise to criticism from some pro-military bloggers on the social network Telegram. (Putin's government has blocked Facebook and Instagram but allows access to the pro-Russian Telegram.)   Making reference to Russian battlefield setbacks, one blogger wrote "You're throwing a billion-ruble party...What is wrong with you? Not at the time of such a horrible failure." (quotation source: The New York Times) Other Telegram blogs have reflect great disappointment in the military's seeming inability to resume the offensive on all fronts.  Back in February when Putin's "Special Military Operation" was launched, Russian armies were supposed to have overwhelmed Ukrainian resistance in a few days, with Ukrainians welcoming  their "liberation" from "Nazi" oppressors. The bloggers' anger comes not from sympathy for Ukraine but from frustration with Russia's inability to win. 

On Sept 10 engineers at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant were able to shut down the last of the facility's six reactors, putting the plant on "cold shutdown."  The cooling process is being fueled by the one remaining powerline into the plant. Still, the shelling in the area continues the danger of a power malfunction and possible meltdown.

 What is the status of Sweden and Finland's bid to join NATO?  Membership in the alliance requires the unanimous consent of all NATO member countries.  The legislatures of each member state must approve the expansion.  Of the alliance's 30 members, Greece, Hungary, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, and Turkey have not yet voted acceptance.  While President Erdogan did indicate back in July that Turkey will not oppose NATO expansion, political opposition in the Turkish parliament may prevent it. 

The Ukrainian offensive in the east has had startling success, pushing back Russian troops and liberating some 2300 square miles of territory from Russian occupation.  Retreating Russians have abandoned weapons and other equipment in what Moscow is now calling "repositioning."  The areas liberated are to the east of Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city.

On Sept 20, Russian President Putin announced that Russia will call up some of its 300,000 military reserves to active service.  The first mobilization of Russian armed forces since World War II, the announcement marks a disturbing escalation of the conflict. The announcement comes on the background of significant battle-front failures of Russian forces in the recent Ukrainian offensive in the Donbas. The "reservists" are supposedly men under 35 who have earlier served a mandatory year of military service.  

In the areas being liberated there is again evidence of Russian atrocities against Ukrainian civilians.  Mass graves have been discovered in the recently recaptured territory of Izyum, east of Kharkiv.  Liberated civilians testified to being interrogated and tortured by Russian military authorities. 

In a stiff warning to NATO, Putin accused the West of engaging in "nuclear blackmail" noting that "statements of some high-ranking representative of the leading NATO states about the possibility of using nuclear weapons of mass destruction against Russia .... To those who allow themselves such statements regarding Russia, I want to remind  you that our country also has means of destruction ... and when the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, to protect Russia and our people, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal.  It's not a bluff." (quotation source: Associated Press) 

The concept of Russian territorial integrity may become a significant issue, as Russia began conducting referendums in the Ukrainian territories still under Russian control.  Voters in these territories are being asked if they approve the annexation of their territory to Russia. If they do, then Russia can claim that those areas are legitimately part of Russia and that Ukraine is attacking Russia itself.  

Since February, Russia has recognized the Donbas regions of Luhansk and Donetsk as "independent states" under Russian protection. Putin's "special military operation," remember, was to defend Russian Ukrainians from persecution and genocide by Zelenskyy's "Nazi" regime and "demilitarize" Ukraine to make it no longer a threat to Russia's security.  The voting is also taking place in those southern areas, including Kherson and Zaporizhzhia (Mariupol), still under partial Russian occupation.  It was this means whereby Crimea became a "legitimate" part of Russia in 2014. 

The outcome of these "elections" is not in doubt.  The voting is taking place under Russian supervision.  For their protection, Russia reasons, these regions must be made part of Russia.  NATO and the West, and particularly Ukraine, will not recognize Russian sovereignty over these territories. 

While this is going on in Ukraine the United Nations is holding its annual General Assembly meeting in New York (Sept 13 - 27).  Beyond simply their UN ambassadors, many national heads of state and/or prime ministers are attending the meeting. Notably missing are Russian President Putin, China's Xi Jinping, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. (Modi is significant as he is regarded as a powerful voice for the interests of many Asian-African states.)  On Sept 21 President Biden addressed the assembly, calling the Russian invasion of Ukraine "outrageous", and urging the UN membership (of which Russia is part) to see the war as a blatant violation of the principles upon which the UN was founded in 1945.  Other issues addressed by the President included climate change, global food insecurity, and the pandemic.  

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy received a standing ovation following his video address to the assembly.  He appealed to the UN to recognize Russia as a sponsor of state terrorism.  "After the Russian missile terror. After the massacres. After Mariupol," he said. "After the burning of Ukrainian prisoners in Olenivka by the Russian military. After blocking the ports. After the strikes of Russian tanks and missiles on nuclear power plants. And after threats to use nuclear weapons, which have become the rule, not the exception, for Russian propagandists..." He then outlined a plan with five "preconditions" for peace with Russia: punishment for aggression; protection of life; restoration of security and territorial integrity; security guarantees; and determination to defend oneself. He also called for the U.N. to create a special tribunal "to punish Russia for the crime of aggression against our state." "We did not provoke this war," he said. "We held 88 rounds of talks in various formats to prevent this war, just from the beginning of my presidency until February 24 this year." But instead of finding a way forward, Russia, he said, began a "full-scale" aggression.  "Russia wants war. It's true. But Russia will not be able to stop the course of history. Mankind and the international law are stronger than one terrorist state," ... "Russia will be forced to end this war. The war it has started." (quotations sources CBS News)

The war in Ukraine in most Russian minds had been a far-away conflict with an easy and assured victory. State media had long glossed over battlefield set-backs, identifying them as tactical repositioning, and denied any Russian responsibility for atrocities committed against Ukrainian civilians. Putin's expanded mobilization order, however, has brought the war home, literally.  Across the country, Russian families are now seeing their fathers, husbands, brothers, and sons being called to renewed military service.  All those being called are veterans under 35 who had previously served. That the jobs they held and responsibilities they had to family and employers does not matter.  The result has been the outbreak of demonstrations of popular outrage across Russia. Within hours of the announcement, over a thousand civilian protestors in Moscow, St. Petersburg, and other major cities have been arrested.  Russian civil rights groups report that men among the arrested protestors were being served with orders to report for military service. 

The few airlines unaffected by the sanctions were suddenly deluged with ticket orders for flights out of the country. Ticket prices soared, making flight impossible for most.  

September 21 saw the Russian release of 215 Ukrainian prisoners of war in an exchange agreement brokered by Turkey's President Recep Erdogan. Ukraine released 56 prisoners, one of whom was Viktor Medvedchuk, leader of a banned a pro-Russian political group and a close confidant of Putin. Most of the Ukrainians released were survivors of the Russian siege of Mariupol.  Largely of the Azov regiment, they had been ordered to surrender in May, following a heroic resistance in the tunnels under the Azovstal steel plant. (See above.) Under the conditions of the release, the Ukrainian officers must remain in Turkey until the war is over. (On July 8, 2023, Turkey released five of the Ukrainian officers as a good-will gesture on the occasion of Zelenskyy's visit with Turkish President Erdogan in Istanbul.)

In a meeting of the UN Security Council on Sept. 22, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov clashed over US accusations of Russian war crimes in Ukraine.  The discovery of a mass grave of murdered civilians in Izyum, a town recently liberated by Ukrainian troops,  demonstrated Russian brutal insensitivity to noncombatants.  Lavrov angrily denied Blinken, blaming Ukraine for killing civilians in the Donbas  "with impunity" with the unspoken complicity of the US, France, and Germany. “The Kyiv regime owes its impunity to its Western sponsors,” he said. 

The Washington Post reported that "in singling out Russia for blame, Blinken was joined by top diplomats representing France, Britain, Norway, Albania and Ireland, as well as U.N. Secretary General António Guterres, who accused the Kremlin of violating international law."  Guterres also stated that Russia's holding of referendums in Russian occupied areas of Ukraine was a "violation of the UN Charter, and of international law and precedent."  

Russian border crossings with Finland, Turkey, Georgia, Mongolia, and Kazakhstan, suddenly saw long traffic backups as Russians fearing military conscription, sought refuge. Lines of cars at border points of entry were reported to be miles long, some cars being abandoned in favor of crossing on foot.  On Sept. 27 Mongolia reported that some 3000 Russians have crossed the border. 

The reaction of European Union nations to the exodus of Russians is mixed.  Germany has indicated that it will accept them as refugees.  "Deserters threatened with serious repression can as a rule obtain international protection in Germany," Interior Minister Nancy Faeser told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper. "Anyone who courageously opposes Putin's regime, and thereby falls into great danger, can file for asylum on grounds of political persecution," she said.  Berlin's softer line drew a stinging rebuke from Ukraine's ambassador to Germany, Andriy Melnyk, who insisted, "Young Russians who don't want to go to war must finally overthrow Putin." The Baltic states and Poland are taking a tougher stance. Latvia has closed its border to Russians. Latvian Foreign Minister Edgar Rinkevics said, "Many Russians who now flee Russia because of mobilization were fine with killing Ukrainians. They did not protest then. There are considerable security risks admitting them and plenty of countries outside EU to go to." The Estonian Interior Minister stated "We should not offer protection to deserters."  (quotations source: Agence France-Presse)  

Giving Russia's war holy sanction, the Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill, who has referred to Putin as a “miracle from God”, announced that God will absolve of their sins all Russian soldiers killed in the war.  

Anti-war demonstrations continue in Moscow and other cities across Russia, despite arrests, high fines, and imprisonments.  There are reports of men being conscripted and sent directly to the front.  (Author's comment: If true, combat training under live fire can hardly be effective and certainly be frightening and demoralizing.)

Sept 28  The LA Times reports that some 194,000 Russians, mostly single men but some with their families, have fled Russia since Putin's partial mobilization order on Sept 20.  

The US Embassy in Moscow has issued an advisory to all US citizens in Russia that they should leave the country. 

Two of the Nord Stream underseas pipelines are reported leaking natural gas leading to speculation that the lines had been sabotaged.  One of the lines had been shutdown for several weeks, but gas still backed up in it is creating a massive bubble pool on the water's surface. 

On Sept 29 Putin announced that the referendums held in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine show overwhelming approval for those territories being annexed to Russia. They are Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.  None of the four regions are entirely controlled by Russia, and Zaporizhzhian regional  capital (also named Zaporizhzhia) has never been under Russian occupation. (And, yes, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant is in that region.)

To "legitimize" making these territories part of Russia, Putin must first sign a treaty with the four territories confirming their acceptance of annexation. The treaty would then go the Russia's Constitutional Court for confirmation that it complies with Russian constitutional law. It then goes before the State Duma (lower house of the Russian Parliament) for its approval before being sent on to the Federation Council, the parliamentary upper house, for final approval. Putin, as President, would then proclaim the territories part of Russia. All this could have been done within hours, but Putin spanned it out over several days through well-televised ceremonial events. 

While this “constitutional” annexation process was going on, fighting continued in all four of the regions. Russia renewed rocket attacks against targets in Kharkiv, Dnipro, and other cities in the contested regions.  These attacks were aimed at residential neighborhoods and electrical power plants. Unable to defeat the Ukrainian forces in battle, the strategy seems to be to cause disruption within and demoralization of the civilian population. 

On Sept. 30 in a meeting of the United Nations Security Council, Russia vetoed a US-Albanian sponsored resolution condemning Russia's annexation of the four Ukrainian provinces. The resolution demanded an immediate halt to Russia’s “full-scale unlawful invasion of Ukraine” and the immediate and unconditional withdrawal of all its military forces from Ukraine.  (The UN Security Council has 15 members. The US, Britain, France, China, and Russia have permanent membership status, the remaining ten are elected by the General Assembly for two-year terms.  Decisions of the Council require nine yes votes.  Each of the five permanent members holds veto power over any Council decision on substantive matters).  The vote on the resolution was 10 - 1 in favor, with China, India, Brazil, and Gabon abstaining. Regardless of the outcome of the vote, it is nullified by the Russian veto.  US Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield responded that the resolution would be introduced in the General Assembly where there are no vetoes  “and show that the world is still on the side of sovereignty and protecting territorial integrity.”  (quotation source: Associated Press)

In a Sept 30 Kremlin speech celebrating the annexation, Putin bitterly attacked the West (i.e., the US, NATO, and the EU), calling for “a liberation anti-colonial movement against unipolar hegemony.” ... “The West is ready to step over everything to preserve the neo-colonial system that allows it to parasitize, in fact, to plunder the world at the expense of the power of the dollar and technological dictate.”  Western countries have “nothing to offer” other than “robbery and racketeering,” he said. “In fact, they spit on the natural right of billions of people, most of humanity, to freedom and justice, to determine their future on their own.”  He identified South Korea, Japan, and Germany as “slaves” of the US, because the US oversaw their economic revitalization and growth since the end of World War Two.  And he made paranoid allusions to those governments being “watched” by the US with “listening devices not only in their offices but also in residential premises.” With his audience chanting "Russia! Russia!"  He concluded his remarks, “The truth is behind us. Russia is behind us!”  (quotations source: US News and World Report) 

Western reaction to Putin's speech was predictable. The US almost instantly imposed new sanctions on more than 1000 Russian officials and businesses. President Biden described the Russian annexation as "phony" and showing "contempt for peaceful nations everywhere."  The EU's top diplomat Josep Fontelles tweeted "The announced annexation ... is a major breach of international law and violation of the UN Charter. No sham referendum can justify it. Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty is non-negotiable. The EU's support to Ukraine remains unwavering." (quotations source: US News and World Report)

On Sept 30 Ukraine announced that it will apply for fast-track admission to NATO. While NATO's present membership may well be sympathetic, admission is unlikely. NATO membership requires unanimous consent of all other member states.  Finland and Sweden applied for NATO membership earlier this year.  Turkey's President Recep Erdogan announced (Oct 1) that Turkey will not approve their joining NATO until they have demonstrated to Turkey's satisfaction that they are ending support for Kurdish terrorist groups. (See May 17 above.) Erdogan has had a working relationship with Russia that would most likely be instantly terminated should he support Ukrainian membership.  His stalling on Finland and Sweden is a signal to Russia that he's not favoring NATO expansion.)

On Oct. 6 US President Biden warned that the risk of nuclear "Armageddon" is at its highest since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. He sees Putin as “not joking when he talks about the use of tactical nuclear weapons or biological or chemical weapons.” He suggested the threat from Putin is real “because his military is — you might say — significantly underperforming.”  “I don’t think there is any such a thing as the ability to easily use a tactical nuclear weapon and not end up with Armageddon.” Referring to Putin, Biden remarked, “Where does he find a way out? Where does he find himself in a position that he does not only lose face but lose significant power within Russia?”  (In other words, as his forces continue to lose in Ukraine, Putin's power might be so threatened that, in desperation, he'd order a  nuclear strike.)   Despite the President's dire comments, US intelligence sources are not seeing evidence that Russia is moving nuclear weapons in preparation for a strike.  Jake Sullivan, the President's National Security Advisor,  said last week that the US will stay in direct  communication with Russia but has made it clear what the “consequences” of using a nuclear weapon in Ukraine would be.  (quotations source: Associated Press) 

It is estimated that to date (Oct. 7) some 200,000 Russians have crossed into other countries to avoid conscription. This number includes two men who on Oct 6 arrived by boat on Alaska's St. Lawrence Island. St. Lawrence is a small island in the Bering Sea, some 50 miles from the Russian coast. It was part of Seward's territorial purchase of Alaska from Russia in 1867. Both men have requested asylum and are the first such asylum-seekers to arrive in the US. Russia will certainly demand their repatriation.  Their arrival prompted concerns among Alaskan politicians for the overall security of the Alaskan coast. 

The war continues with Ukraine's forces making advances in the southern Kherson region.  On Oct. 7 an explosion of unknown origin bought down a span on a bridge connecting Russia with Crimea.  Built by Russia across the Kerch Strait (between the Sea of Azov and Black Sea), the 12-mile Kerch Bridge is a double span bridge, carrying a roadway and two railroad lines, making it a major transportation link with Crimea. As the northern land link between Russia and Crimea is now a combat zone, the loss of the Kerch Bridge has strategic implications in supplying Russia's forces in Crimea. Putin announced that a truck exploded on the bridge, causing the span to collapse and igniting fires in fuel-carrying railroad cars on the parallel span. Ukraine had no public comment on the incident other than it's seeking the liberation of Crimea from Russian control. Explosive experts, looking at photos of the damage, attest that the explosive force came from beneath the span, not from the road above. The bridge had long been Putin's signature project. It was Putin who ordered its construction in 2014 and drove the first vehicle across it in its ceremonial opening in 2019.  Repair of the bridge will become a Russian priority.

Elsewhere in Ukraine, the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency  (IAEA) announced that on Oct. 8 electrical power to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant had again been cut off by shelling in the region. Power is being provided by emergency diesel generators. The plant's six nuclear reactors had been shut down since Sept.10 but still need electricity for cooling.  The generators have sufficient fuel for ten days. 

In what appears to be a major shake-up in Russia's military command, the Russian Defense Ministry on Oct. 8 named Air Force General Sergei Surovikin as the overall commander of military operations in Ukraine.  Several other high-ranking officers were also replaced as the Kremlin seeks to reverse the recent spate of battlefront failures. The third paramount commander since the war began in February, Surovikin is a well-decorated veteran of the Russian wars in Afghanistan, Chechnya, and Syria. The British Ministry of Defense identifies him as "brutal and corrupt".  Known for his ruthlessness in directing air attacks on both military and civilian targets, particularly  in Chechnya and Syria, it is likely Surovikin will increase the use air power as a means to Russia's retaking the offensive. (Not so!  Having failed to achieve significant battlefield change, Surovikin would be removed from command in Jan, 2023.)

In seeming reprisal for the attack on the Kerch Bridge, Russian aircraft fired rockets into an apartment complex in the city of Zaporizhzhia, killing 13 and wounding 69 civilians.  The city of Zaporizhzhia is some 30 miles from the nuclear plant.  

On Oct. 10, Russian rockets struck center-city Kyiv as well as numerous other cities across Ukraine. The attack, which killed at least six civilians in Kyiv, was in retaliation for the Oct. 7 attack on the Kerch Bridge, an event now referred to by Putin as Ukrainian "terrorism". The attacks came during the morning rush hour as people were making their way to work and school.  Among other structures, an office of the German embassy in Kyiv was damaged in the attack as was a children's playground in the city's Shevchenko Park.  US President Joseph Biden announced that the US would increase its support for Ukraine. 

An emergency virtual meeting of the G7 leadership with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy was held on the morning of Oct.11.   (What is the G7? See June 27 above.)  Following the meeting, the G7 issued a statement affirming that “that we are undeterred and steadfast in our commitment to providing the support Ukraine needs to uphold its sovereignty and territorial integrity...We will continue to provide financial, humanitarian, military, diplomatic and legal support and will stand firmly with Ukraine for as long as it takes. We are committed to supporting Ukraine in meeting its winter preparedness needs.” The G7 did not, however, announce any new sanctions to be imposed on Russia  (quotation source: CNN) 

Russia continued to make random rocket attacks on Kyiv and other cities across Ukraine, targeting civilians and electrical power infrastructure.  Many of the weapons were Iranian-made Shahed-136 "kamikaze" drones, some being shot down by Ukrainian anti-aircraft defenses.  In the hotly contested south, Moscow urged Russians civilians living the Kherson region to evacuate. Ukrainians in Kherson were "invited" to evacuate to Russia on the condition that they become Russian citizens.  It was reported from the Russian borderland city of Belgorod on Oct. 16 that two gunmen, later identified as Russian recruits, entered a Russian military training center, killing 11 and wounding another 15 recruits.

The European Union announced on Oct. 17 that it would create a two-year military training program for 15,000 Ukrainian soldiers and provide some 500 million euros ($486 million) for Ukrainian armaments.  The program will be headquartered in Brussels and provide "individual, collective and specialized training" enabling Ukraine "to defend its territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders, effectively exercise its sovereignty and protect civilians."  The training will take place primarily in Germany and Poland. (quotations source: Associated Press)

Fourteen NATO countries on Oct. 17 began their annual nuclear deterrent aerial training exercises in the skies over Belgium, Britain, and the North Sea.  Labeled "Steadfast Noon", the exercises include some 60 aircraft, including American long-range B-52 bombers.  The B-52 has been the foundation of the US Strategic Air Command since the 1950s.  (Newer versions of the planes, of course, have been modernized ever since.)  In the past Russia has conducted its nuclear aerial training exercises at the same time and is expected to do so soon.

(Author's comment: The October dates for the NATO training exercises coincide with those of the two week period of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, the closest the US has ever come to nuclear war with Russia, then the Soviet Union.  Back in 1962 it was Soviet missiles, not bombers, that were the threat to the US. The decades following saw an intensive US-Soviet nuclear arms race in the development of Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs). That's the strategic weapon of Mutually Assured Destruction, and that's still the reality today.) 

Reports from Moscow revealed the Oct. 12 death of Nikolay Petrunin, a 46-year old executive of the Russian energy giant Gazprom. Petrunin was reputed to be among those oligarchs close to Putin. His passing might not be otherwise notable were it not for the recent deaths of others among Putin’s business associates. On Sept.1, Ravil Maganov, the 67-year old president of Lukoil died in an unexplained fall from a hospital window, making 17 the number of billionaire Russian business executives with ties to Putin who have unexpectedly died in 2022.  There is unspoken speculation that Putin is somehow behind these deaths.  Half of the deceased were in the energy production industry, the means whereby Moscow can exercise strong influence among EU states that depend on Russian gas imports. 

Oct. 18: Russian rockets and drones continued to strike across Ukraine, with energy infrastructure as the main targets. Hard hit were targets in Dnipro, Zhytomer, and Kharkiv. President Zelenskyy announced that "Since Oct. 10, 30% of Ukraine's power stations have been destroyed, causing massive blackouts across the country” … "No space left for negotiations with Putin's regime." (quotation source: ABC News)

In a predictable response, Russia on Oct. 18 denounced the NATO nuclear deterrent training exercises, accusing NATO of having violated the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT).  Russia claimed that NATO has violated the treaty "because it involves troops from countries without nuclear weapons" who would share "codes, passwords and aircraft" with countries that do have such equipment. The CTBT is a UN-sponsored treaty that has been ratified by some 176 nations, including Russia. Annex 2 of the treaty requires the signing and ratification of 44 specified countries (with nuclear weapons development programs) before the treaty goes into effect. Of those 44 states, North Korea, and India have not yet signed; China, Egypt, Iran, Israel, and the United States have not yet ratified. 

The Ukrainian offensive in the Kherson region has caused General Sergei Surovikin, Putin's newly-appointed commander of Russia's armies in Ukraine, to publicly express concern for his forces' ability to defeat it.   In a recent television interview he described the situation as "tense" and that "hard decisions must be made" in resolving it. Whether this meant a Russian withdrawal or renewed offensive is uncertain, but it was unusual for a commanding officer to not be emphatic in promising victory. At the same time, Russian civilian officials in the area continued to urge civilian evacuations from the west to the eastern side of the Dnieper River, justifying the evacuations as a safety measure in the event of renewed fighting or flooding caused by the possible destruction of the dam at the nearby Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant.  (quotation source: Newsweek)

In what may certainly be seen as an act of desperation, Russian President Putin announced on Oct 19 that the four recently "annexed" regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia were under martial law. Martial law is an action usually taken by governments in regions where the existing legal authorities are incapacitated and unable to provide their people needed protection and services. Under martial law operation of governance is assumed by the military or another policing authority with unlimited power to preserve and enforce order. Under martial law all constitutionally legal rights and privileges are suspended.  All economic and social services likewise come under the direction of the martial authority.  Putin's justification is that the four regions, now part of Russia, are under attack and occupation by a foreign power, Ukraine. That within them are enemies of Russia who seek to separate them from their rightful motherland.  The Wall Street Journal reports that the Russian-imposed martial law "grants Moscow-backed local authorities a number of powers including curfews, detention for up to 30 days of anyone, restrictions on freedom of movement, forced resettlement and internment (prison) of citizens from the country waging war against Russia, according to the text of the law published on the government's official legal information website .... Addressing his security council via video aired on television, Mr. Putin said the decision was driven by the refusal of Ukraine’s government to recognize what he described as the 'will and choice of people' to be part of Russia and 'on the contrary, shelling continues, civilians are dying,' he said." 

As Europe faces the on-coming winter, concerns are rising regarding the availability of natural gas for heating.  Much of Europe's natural gas comes from Russia.  Meeting in Brussels (Oct. 20 and 21), European Union leaders discussed imposing price caps on gas imported from Russia. A price cap places a ceiling on the amount companies in a given industry can charge for services. The regulated company can sell its services at any price that is equal to or below the cap.  The Associated Press reports that Germany and France, usually in agreement on policy regarding Russia, are not in concert on this matter.  Germany is not yet ready to set caps. France is.  Russia, however, might set its gas prices at levels higher than the cap. Were that the case, EU members would be prohibited from importing Russian gas.  Russia, however, needs the revenue from gas sales to help finance its war with Ukraine. 

Turkish President Recep Erdogan announced on Oct. 20 that Turkey and Russia have reached an agreement to create a natural gas hub in Turkey.  Using the TurkStream pipeline under the Black Sea (See map at July 9 above), Turkey will import the gas from Russia and sell it to the West. Turkey is a member of NATO but maintains a close relationship with Russia.  

Oct. 21- 24:  Russian forces and masses of civilians were reported evacuating the city of Kherson to the eastern shore of the Dnieper River. Both Ukraine and Russia are accusing the other of plotting destruction of the the dam at the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant.  Russian drone attacks continue to strike in Kyiv and other cities, but Ukraine reports having intercepted and shot down increasing number of the Iranian-made drones. It is also reported that Iranian military technicians are in Ukraine assisting the Russians with the drone attacks. 

Russia claimed that it has mobilized some 220,000 conscripts since its Sept. 20 call-up of 300,000 "reservists" to active duty. The Moscow Times, an independent English-language online publication, reports that the new recruits are thrown into battle without adequate training, weapons, or equipment and are surrendering en masse. Some are men over 40 (The order was for men under 35) and most seem to be  from the "'most legally illiterate' segments of society - those whose relatives are unlikely to lead protests.'" The Russian army is not providing its new recruits with bullet-proof vests. "Men have said their commanders told them that you aren't given one, you earn one, by taking it from the first Ukrainian soldier you kill."  Anti-war social media sources, advise Russians eligible for this wave of conscription, not to answer their phones or open their mail or door, not even be home.  In Russian Karelia, near the border of Finland, an "entire village disappeared into the forest when they heard recruiters were coming." (quotations source: The Week magazine, Oct. 28 issue)

The week of Oct. 24 saw Russia claim that Ukraine will explode a "dirty bomb" on its own territory and blame Russia for the attack. A dirty bomb is an explosive device laced with radioactivity, in effect a nuclear bomb. Ukraine denies the Russian allegation. Sergei Shoigu, the Russian Defense Minister, made calls to his American, British and French counterparts informing them of the alleged Ukrainian threat. Putin's top military chief, General Valery Gerasimov, likewise made calls to the American and British military chiefs.  NATO's General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg issued a statement: "NATO allies reject this allegation ... Russia must not use it as a pretext for escalation. We must remain steadfast in our support for Ukraine." The British Ministry of Defense commented that maintaining open channels of communication with the Russian defense ministry was essential to "manage the risk of miscalculation and to facilitate de-escalation." The British information service Sky News speculates that Russia's "sudden desire for dialogue could be part of the process of raising the idea of a dirty bomb ahead of whatever theatrics could be planned .... At the same time, it could possibly signal that Moscow is trying to attempt some form of renewed contact, or even negotiation, as its armed forces suffer repeated defeats on the battlefield at the hands of Ukraine's military, armed with Western weapons, and with winter approaching." (quotations source: Sky News) 

The United Nations IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi announced that a team of inspectors would travel to Ukraine to investigate the Russian allegations that Ukraine is building a "dirty bomb". The IAEA visit was invited by Kyiv and will be permitted access to the two sites named by Russia as locations for the weapon's construction.   

Oct. 25  It comes as no surprise that Russia announced the beginning of its annual nuclear training exercises. Called "Grom" ("Thunder"), the Russian exercises will include unarmed missile launches.  NATO's Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg advised that, in light of Russia's recent "dangerous nuclear rhetoric", the Russian maneuvers will be vigilantly "monitored". (quotation source: CBS News)  Russian media televised Putin observing graphics of a simulated massive nuclear attack in response to an attack on Russia.  Both the US and Russia have routinely conducted these training drills in the past, but because of the present crisis, they are getting greater media attention. 

On Oct. 27 Putin made a televised speech accusing the US and its allies of seeking global domination and playing a “dangerous, bloody, and dirty” game in order to do so. USA Today reported that “despite his repeated veiled references to Russia's nuclear arsenal in recent months, Putin said he has no intention of using such a weapon in Ukraine: ‘There is no point in that, neither political, nor military’.” Speaking at a conference of international policy experts one day after overseeing a nuclear training exercise, Putin seemed to downplay Russia's losses in its war with Ukraine and said the conflict he launched was unavoidable after years of building tension. 

Despite his repeated veiled references to Russia's nuclear arsenal in recent months, Putin said he has no intention of using such a weapon in Ukraine: “There is no point in that, neither political, nor military,” he said.

Describing the current decade as among the most "dangerous" and "unpredictable" since World War II, Putin claimed that “humankind now faces a choice: accumulate a load of problems that will inevitably crush us all or try to find solutions that may not be ideal but working and could make the world more stable and secure.” (quotations source: USA Today)

The Special Military Operation in Ukraine will  “accelerate” the inauguration of a “new world order based on law and justice” in which economic and political gains will justify the losses sustained thus far.  “Yes, there are some issues — I refer to the losses incurred due to the special military operation — and I always say that, yes, there are economic losses, but there are also enormous acquisitions,” What is happening, indubitably, in the end — I emphasize that — in the end, will benefit Russia and its future. Why is that? Because it’ll help reinforce our sovereignty in all domains, and in particular, in the economic field.” (quotations source: Washington Examiner)

On the background of the world’s attention to Putin’s televised rant came the news that the popular Russian television personality and journalist Ksenia Sobchak has fled Russia to Lithuania. Once known as the “Russian Paris Hilton”, Ksenia is the daughter of Anatoly Sobchak, the former mayor of St. Petersburg. It was Sobchak who, in 1990, brought his former law student Vladimir Putin into the government of St. Petersburg. Ksenia was rumored to be Putin’s goddaughter. In 2018 she was a candidate for the Russian presidency, running in opposition to Putin. It is believed that her candidacy was a ruse to give the impression that the elections were indeed democratic and open to opposition. Putin won overwhelmingly against her and several other contenders. Under an Israeli passport (since April 2022 she has had dual Russian-Israeli citizenship), she crossed into Lithuania from Belarus. She had earlier booked air passage to Dubai and Turkey to deceive her pursuers. 

Ksenia fled Russia because she was named in an arrest warrant accusing her of being in league with her media director Kirill Sukhanov who had been jailed on Oct 25 on charges of extortion. Sukhanov was a director Ostorozhno Media, one of Russia’s few remaining independent news outlets. Ostorozhno had been critical of Putin’s war with Ukraine.

Author's comment, Oct. 29, 2022:  It may be of interest to my readers with Buffalo Seminary connections that Mona Fetouh, Class of 1990, is presently in Kyiv with UNICEF.  I asked her if she would tell us about her work there.  She writes, "I am the Chief of Evaluation for UNICEF's Ukraine programs, which means that I am responsible for reviewing and evaluating our work to ensure that we are doing our best to realize the rights and well being of Ukrainian children. This includes conducting studies and collecting data on whether we are reaching the most vulnerable children, providing them with the services and supplies they need, and making a positive impact for their health, education and well being."  UNICEF is the United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund.  I'm sure we all commend Mona for her courage and commitment under what must be very uncertain and frightening conditions. 

Oct 29:  Russia announced that it would cease its participation in the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI), the international agreement that permits grain shipments from Ukraine by sea. The UN-Turkish brokered agreement was arrived at in July (see July 22 above), and since then some 400 shipments have passed through the Black Sea taking vital foodstuffs to Asia and Africa. Russia cites Ukrainian attacks against Russian naval vessels as the reason.  The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed Kyiv conducted an “act of terrorism” against Russian warships. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that Ukrainian armed forces, aided by British, launched “massive air and sea strikes using unmanned aerial vehicles against ships and infrastructure of the Russian Black Sea Fleet at the naval base in Sevastopol.” (quotations source: CNBC News) In this attack a Russian minesweeping vessel was slightly damaged.  Russia claims the strike was a direct attack on Russia itself.  (Sevastopol is in Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014. Ukraine and the UN do not recognize the legitimacy of the Russian annexation.)

In response to Russia's earlier battlefield failures in the Donbas, another Russian general was fired. General Alexander Lapin, commander of the Russian Armed Forces' Central Military District was removed from command.  Prior to his dismissal, Lapin was severely criticized for the loss of the city of Lyman in the Donetsk region.  Lyman was a major supply center for Russian operations in the Donbas. Its loss was a major defeat. One of Lapin's critics, the Chechen ruler Razman Kadyrov, had earlier said, "If I had my way, I would demote Lapin to a private, deprive him of his awards and, with a machine gun in his hands, send him to the front line to wash away his shame with blood." (quotation source: Newsweek)  Kadyrov was reacting to the devasting defeat of a Chechen unit of the Russian army in the battle for Lyman.

No more "Finger lickin' good" for Russians!  Yum! Brands, owner of Kentucky Fried Chicken, announced that it is selling its KFC operations in Russia. The purchasers of the  some 1000 KFC locations will rebrand the business as "Rostic's".  Supposedly the new owners will not have rights to KFC's recipes, but there's no way to prevent local franchisers from reproducing the "11 herb and spices" combination from memory. Yum! Brands also owns Pizza Hut and will be closing its 50 Russian operations.  We saw earlier that McDonald's sold its franchises in Russia. The same is true for Starbucks, Coca Cola, and PepsiCo. (author's comment: Well, that'll show them Russkys!) 

Despite Russia's withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, fourteen grain-carrying vessels departed from Ukrainian ports on Nov. 1. One of the ships was chartered by the UN World Food Program and is bound for Ethiopia.  Desperately dependent upon grain imports, Ethiopia and other countries on the Horn of Africa are severely drought-stricken and threatened by famine. 

Russia continues its war against civilians. Targeting essential energy infrastructure, Russia, on Nov. 1, fired some fifty cruise missiles at Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities. It was estimated that 80% of Kyiv was without water as a result of the attack.  

Nov. 2: Four days after withdrawing, Russia resumed its participation in the Black Sea Grain Initiative, enabling unimpeded grain shipments from Ukraine to other parts of the world. The Russian Defense Ministry issued a statement saying it had received written guarantees that Ukraine would not use the Black Sea shipping corridor for military operations against Russia. 

Nov.11: The battle for Kherson seemingly turned in favor of Ukraine as Russian forces withdrew from the city during the week of Nov. 7. Russia announced that its troops had fully evacuated the city by crossing to the eastern side of the Dnieper River.  Having withdrawn from the city, the Russians destroyed the Antoniviskyy bridge, the main conduit to the eastern bank.  Even though Ukrainian troops have entered the city, it is not certain that the Russian retreat is indeed admission of a failure at arms or a ploy to lure the Ukrainians into a city rigged with mine and other explosive traps or hidden units poised to attack. Still, the city's civilians flocked into the streets in celebratory elation, welcoming their liberators and raising Ukrainian flags above public buildings.  Kherson, a city of some 280,000, is the capital of the larger Kherson region. The city fell to the Russians in the early weeks of the war. The region was proclaimed annexed to Russia in September. Russia reminded Kherson that the war is not over with artillery shelling of the city from the east bank. Likewise, intense fighting still continues in the Donbas region. (On Nov. 14 Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made an unannounced visit to Kherson and was mobbed by joyous residents.)

The United States Treasury announced on Nov. 11 that it was ending financial sanctions against Russian diplomatic offices in the the US.  

The US also announced that a meeting between American and Russian delegations will take place on Nov. 29 in Cairo (Egypt) to renew discussions on continuing the nuclear arms pact known as New START, first signed in 2010. 

(START - STrategic Arms Reduction Treaty  - the acronym used for what's officially called "Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of     Strategic Offensive Arms." MFRLSOA - "mefrelesoa?" START is much easier to pronounce.) 

The New START agreement was for ten years and discussions for its modification and renewal in 2020 were postponed owing to the global pandemic. It is encouraging that, considering the very strained relationship between the two nuclear superpowers, both are willing to "re-START" dialogue on continuing the agreement. The present treaty commits both sides to limiting and reducing the production of both weapons and their missile-launching delivery systems. (That optimism would prove short-lived. See Nov. 28 below.)

Both the US and Russia were represented in the East Asia Summit held following the meeting of the ten-nation Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) held in the Cambodian capital Phnom Penh, Nov. 9-11.

(ASEAN was founded in 1967 on the background of the Vietnam War. Its primary objectives have been the promotion of economic growth and regional peace and stability. The Ten ASEAN states are Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Myanmar (formerly Burma), Laos (the Lao Democratic People’s Republic), Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.  Through the East Asia Summit (EAS) other nations with interests in the region are represented.  Founded in 2005, the EAS is an annual post-ASEAN meeting of the leaders of 18 states. Russia, China, and the US are part of the EAS, hence their being represented in Phnom Penh.)  

US President Biden and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken attended. (Both were en route to the G 20 meeting in Indonesia.)  Putin did not attend the EAS meeting, but Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov did. It was hoped the US and Russia might agree on a common statement regarding seeking resolution of the war in Ukraine. However, Lavrov announced that as the US refuses to acknowledge Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a “Special Military Operation” and that NATO’s arming of Ukraine was escalating the crisis, a common statement was not possible.

High-power diplomacy then moved on to the Indonesian island of Bali for the annual G 20 meeting, Nov. 14 -16. (See July 8 above for an explanation of the G 20.) There, on Nov. 14, Biden met with Chinese President Xi Jinping. It was the first time the two had met face-to-face, although there had been years of communications. 

"We share responsibility in my view,” Biden said, “to show that China and the United States can manage our differences, prevent competition from becoming anything ever to near-conflict and to find ways to work together on urgent global issues that require our mutual cooperation."  While not as assertive, Xi responded, "The world expects that China and the United States will properly handle the relationship." (quotations source: Los Angeles Times)

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(Author’s comment: Let’s look at some history here.  Since 1949 the relationship between the US and China has been off-on, ranging from open hostility (the Korean War) to accommodation, even friendship with mutual and prosperous commercial growth, but always under the awareness of a serious issue of disagreement: Taiwan. China is a communist state under single party rule. Xi Jinping is its present leader. (Understand that in Chinese names, the family name comes first, then the given name. Thus, it's President Xi.  Xi is pronounced "she".) 

The Chinese Communist Party came to power in 1949, following a decades-long civil war with the Chinese Nationalist government that then fled to Taiwan.  Since then, Taiwan has continued to identify itself as the Republic of China and claims sovereignty over the Chinese mainland. China sees Taiwan as a renegade province that is still legally part of China. Opposed to communism and seeing China as a potential threat to all of East Asia, the US long refused to recognize the legitimacy of the communist regime in Beijing and provided economic assistance and military protection to Taiwan.

 It was not until 1972 that the US and China began negotiations that led to their mutual recognition in 1979. The US then ended its official recognition of the government in Taiwan, while continuing its business interests in the island state.  Through the 1972 Shanghai Communique, the US accepted the concept of “One China” wherein Taiwan was part of China but the resolution of issues between the conflicting identities must be mutually and peacefully achieved. China then opened itself to US trade and investment and the economies of both countries thrived and expanded over the following decades. Nonetheless, Taiwan remains a contentious issue in US-China relations. President Xi wants Taiwan brought under direct Chinese sovereignty sooner rather than later and has been increasingly assertive in anti-Taiwan rhetoric.

China regarded early 2022 visits to Taiwan by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other US legislators as provocative and responded with active military maneuvers in the air and sea near the island. In October, a meeting of the Chinese Communist Party leadership voted (unanimously) to give Xi a third term as president. He was also imbued with extensive executive powers enabling him to remove potential opponents. He is, in effect, a dictator.  Also disturbing to the region is China’s aggressive territorial claims to islands belonging to Vietnam, Philippines, and Indonesia in the South China Sea. Military shows of force such as naval operations exercises are intended to impress and intimidate China’s regional neighbors.  Such activities have caused great concern for the US, and Biden made it clear to Xi that the US will act to defend Taiwan.

However, all the world knows that the US is strained by its political polarization and economic difficulties as well as the deteriorating relationship with Russia. With American attention otherwise directed, might the time be right for despotic regimes to pursue their own ambitions? North Korea attacking South Korea? China attacking Taiwan? Iran attacking Israel? As Thomas Paine wrote back in 1776,  “These are the times that try men’s souls.” Were he alive today, we hope he’d revise that to just “our souls”.

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Back to the G 20:  On Nov. 15 through a video telecast Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the assembled G 20 delegates, calling for  indefinite continuation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI). The BSGI is the agreement whereby Russia allows Ukrainian grain shipments, in place since July, expires on Nov. 19. 

In regard to the war, he stated "I am convinced now is the time when the Russian destructive war must and can be stopped." Throughout his address, Zelenskyy referred to the "G 19", a pointed barb at Putin's absence at the conference. Zelenskyy also called for the "G 19" to issue a statement condemning Russia's war against Ukraine. In this regard he presented a 10-point program for peace. The points reflect a broad sweep of conceptual matters to be resolved.  Very simply, they are:  radiation and nuclear safety, food security, energy security, release of prisoners and deportees, implementation of the UN Charter, withdrawal of Russian troops and cessation of hostilities, justice, ecocide and the protection of the environment, prevention of escalation, and confirmation of the end of the war. 

The G 20 summit represents the world's richest countries and meets annually to discuss mutual economic concerns. The Russo-Ukraine war certainly affects international commerce, especially with the trade and investment sanctions imposed on Russia and Russian retaliation such as cutting or reducing sales of vital oil and natural gas to Europe. 

Nov. 15  In a massive attack, Russia fired some 100 rockets against targets across Ukraine.  Ukraine claimed that it shot down 70 of them.  Neighboring Poland reported that a missile struck inside its borders with Ukraine, killing two.  There were initial concerns that Russia had launched the attack.  As Poland is a member of NATO, such an incident could lead to a dangerous escalation of the crisis.  Russia denied the attack, calling it a Polish "provocation."  Later investigation of the attack site wreckage found that the missile was a Russian-made anti-aircraft rocket fired by Ukraine in an attempt to shoot down the attacking Russian missiles. Ukraine has inventories of older Russian made anti-aircraft rockets dating from the Soviet era.  In Bali President Biden had earlier met with the G-7 members of the G 20 to discuss options for how to respond to the attack were it proved launched from Russia. He also spoke by phone to Polish President Andrez Duda and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.

Nov 16 In concluding their meeting, the leaders of the G 20 issued a 17-page declaration, part of which deplored  "in the strongest terms the aggression by the Russian Federation against Ukraine and demands its complete and unconditional withdrawal from the territory of Ukraine.”  Speaking in a post-meeting press conference, G 20 host Indonesian President Joko Widodo said,  “We agreed that the war has negative impact to the global economy, and the global economic recovery will also not be achieved without any peace.”  (quotation source: CNN News)  

Nov. 17  UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres announced that the Black Sea Grain Initiative, set to expire on Nov. 19, had been extended for another 120 days. The next step, Guterres stated, would be to enable Russia to ship food and fertilizer to markets abroad.  Under the July agreement, Russia has allowed Ukraine to ship grain and other foodstuffs across the Black Sea.  

Regional summit meetings are very much in vogue. The 21-nation Asia-Pacific Economic Conference (APEC) met in Bangkok, Thailand, Nov. 17 – 19.  APEC’s membership is largely Asian nations but includes the United States, Russia, Canada, Chile, Mexico, and Peru. The US was represented by Vice President Kamala Harris. Russia was represented by its first deputy prime minister. While primarily focused on regional economic concerns, the Russian war in Ukraine and uneasiness over issues relating to Taiwan and North Korea could not be ignored. In closing, the conference issued a declaration that included a condemnation of Russian aggression against Ukraine. 

The week of Nov. 20 saw Kyiv, Odesa, Kharkiv, Kherson and other cities across Ukraine, hit by multiple rocket strikes, all seemingly intended to disrupt or destroy energy infrastructure. Millions of Ukrainians were left without electricity. In Kyiv the attacks left wide areas of the city without water. The government  imposed rolling blackouts as utilities crews struggled to restore power. With the onset of winter, the constant disruption of power distribution is highly troublesome. In the southern city of Vilniansk, Russian rockets struck a maternity hospital, killing a two-day old infant.

As powerlines stretch across international borders, Russian attacks against Ukrainian utilities also affected neighboring Moldova, the eastern portions of which suffered widespread outages. 

Also under renewed attack was the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.  Inspectors from the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that the plant's reactors remained intact but the damage was severe enough to disrupt power distribution. As has usually been the case, both sides accused the other of the attack. The IAEA has been trying to negotiate a no-fire buffer zone around the plant. 

On Nov. 23 the Parliament of the European Union overwhelmingly voted to declare Russia a "state sponsor of terrorism."  The Parliament's statement asserted that Russia's attacks targeting civilians and infrastructure are "serious violations of human rights and international humanitarian law" which amount to "acts of terror against the Ukrainian population and constitute war crimes." (quotation source: Newsweek)

Unable to prevail on the battlefield, Russian "strategy" has turned to what Russia hopes are demoralizing attacks on Ukraine's civilian population.  Attacks that will undermine the Ukrainian will to resist and compel Zelenskyy to seek peace on Russia's terms. (author's comment: So what does history tell us?  Unable to secure air supremacy over the English Channel in 1940, Hitler then resorted to mass bombings of London and other British cities. Unable to take the cities of Leningrad and Stalingrad, Hitler resorted to sieges intended to starve the cities into submission. Did those bombings and sieges work?)

The Russian Foreign Ministry announced on Nov. 28  that the Russia-US  Strategic Arms Treaty (New START) meeting, scheduled to begin in Cairo on Nov. 29, has been postponed.  No reason for the postponement was given, but it is certain that Russian military setbacks and US support for Ukraine are contributing factors.  In August Russia had suspended the mutual inspection of each other's nuclear weapons facilities called for by the 2011 New START agreement.  It was hoped that the Cairo talks would lead to their resumption. (Previous START discussions took place in Geneva, but Russia no longer regards Switzerland as a neutral, hence the decision to hold talks in Cairo.)  

Dec. 1 French President Emmanuel Macron, on a state visit to the US, met with President Biden to confer on Ukraine and other matters of mutual concern.  Both reaffirmed traditional Franco-American friendship and continued support for Ukraine. Macron also pressed the President on the US Inflation Reduction Act, expressing concern that provisions of the law relating to energy and automobile manufacturing are to the disadvantage of European trade with the US. Promising a review of the law Biden was non-committal in response.  

As part of his conference with Macron, Biden announced his willingness to meet with Russian President Putin to discuss means to end the war. The Russian Foreign Ministry responded that Putin will not discuss any peace option that includes Russia's ceding back to Ukraine Crimea and the four provinces Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson "annexed" by Russia in September.  Ukrainian President Zelenskyy will not accept any peace that does not restore all lost territories, including Crimea, to Ukraine. 

Dec. 2  In an effort to exercise economic pressure on Russia, the European Union, G7 nations, and Australia announced a $60 price cap on the import of seaborn Russian crude oil. This means that those countries will pay no more than the equivalent of $60 per barrel for Russian crude oil. The cap also prohibits EU shipping and insurance companies from handling cargoes of Russian crude bound for non-EU customers unless it is sold for less than $60 per barrel.  The intent here is to cut into a significant Russian revenue source at a time when Russia's economy is already shrinking.  Announcing that Russia will not accept the cap, Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia's ambassador to international organizations in Vienna, stated that Russia will not sell oil to countries that do. "Starting this year Europe will live without Russian oil." (quotation source: Reuters)  Russia will be compelled to seek alternative markets. (author's comment: This will be a real test of European commitment. Russian oil was selling at $67 per barrel in European markets. Loss of Russian imports will raise demand - and therefore prices - for crude from other sources.  And, Russia will most likely find willing crude markets in India and China.) 

On Dec. 5 Moscow announced that two military bases inside Russia were hit by drones allegedly flown from Ukraine. One strike hit the strategic bomber air force base at Engels, a city in southern Russia near Saratov on the Volga River.  (Engels is named for Friedrich Engels who with Karl Marx co-authored The Communist Manifesto in 1848.) Several aircraft were damaged in the attack. Another drone struck a military airfield at Dyagilevo, a city some 150 miles southeast of Moscow.  On Dec. 6 a drone struck a fuel storage tank at a military airbase near the Russian city of Kurst, some 60 miles from Ukraine's eastern border.  Ukraine denied responsibility for the attacks, but such airstrikes deep inside Russia reflect an embarrassing failure of Russia's air defense warning system.  

On Dec. 6 Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu accused Ukraine of "nuclear terrorism" by deliberately attacking the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.  As we have seen, the plant was taken by Russia early in the war, but its area has since been under artillery shelling, both sides blaming the other for the attacks.  The fear, of course, is that a direct hit could cause a reactor meltdown, creating a massive radioactive catastrophe. Shoigu claimed that Ukraine was deliberately targeting the plant. Ukraine denies authorizing any attacks targeting the plant.

On Dec. 7 Time Magazine named Volodymyr Zelenskyy "Person of the Year" coupling him with the "Spirit of Ukraine," citing both “for proving that courage can be as contagious as fear.”  Russia's response was predictable. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Time's "editorial directives remain within the boundaries of the pan-European mainstream, which is totally short-sighted, anti-Russian and vehemently Russophobic."  (quotation sources: Time Magazine and International Business Times.) 

At an awards ceremony in the Kremlin on Dec. 8, Putin referenced Russian rocket attacks across Ukraine, saying “There is a lot of noise right now about our strikes against the energy infrastructure of the neighboring country,” ...“Yes, we are doing this. But who started it?”  He then went into a rant vowing that international condemnation "will not prevent us from completing our military objectives" and blaming Ukraine and its international supporters for starting the war. Putin cited the attack on the Kerch bridge and the Ukrainian assault in the Donetsk region as examples of Ukrainian aggression, justifying Russian retaliation.  (quotation source, Washington Post)

In an address to the Eurasian Economic Union summit meeting in Kyrgyzstan on Dec. 9, Putin warned that any country that attacked Russia would be “wiped off the face of the Earth”. (quotation source: The Independent).  

    The Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) was created by Russia in 2014 and, while its name sounds imposing, consists of only five nations, all once part of the Soviet Union. Its members are Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Armenia.  It is basically a free trade common market union.  Of the five, only one, Armenia, does not share a common border with Russia. 

Putin also warned that Russia may use pre-emptive military strikes against potential enemies, a strategy, he stated, that is a "US concept". 

Energoatom, Ukraine's nuclear energy agency, claimed on Dec. 9 that Russia is positioning multiple-launch rocket sites on the grounds of the Zaporizhyzhia nuclear power plant. The alleged sites are near the plant's spent nuclear fuel storage units and #6 reactor.  Were this to be the case, Russia could fire rockets from plant with impunity as retaliatory fire could damage critical structures and release radiation. 

The week of December 12 saw renewed Russian rocket attacks aimed at Kyiv and Kherson. Ukraine claimed to have shot down 13 of the incoming missiles.

A US Air Force veteran was among the 64 Ukrainian prisoners of war repatriated in a prisoner exchange on Dec. 13.  Suedi Murekezi, a naturalized US citizen originally from Rwanda, was living in Donetsk when seized by pro-Russian militia. He had emigrated to Ukraine in 2018 and was not part of any military group.

UNICEF, the United Nations International Children’s Fund, reported that nearly 7 million children in Ukraine are at “desperate risk” and without sustained access to electricity are “facing a bleak winter huddled in cold and dark.” Many schools have been destroyed and the energy disruptions hinder online learning.

Dec 14  NBC News reported that the US will be sending Patriot anti-aircraft missile defense systems to Ukraine. "Patriot" is an acronym for Phased Array Tracking Radar To Intercept On Target. The mobile rocket launchers have sophisticated tracking systems and are believed capable of intercepting Russian rockets. They are not, however, able to intercept drones as drones are too small a target.  Ukrainian military personnel will be trained in Patriot use in both the US and Ukraine. The Russian's see this as an escalation of US involvement in the war. "Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who is the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, has said that should Washington provide Kyiv with Patriot systems, they would become legitimate military targets."  (quotation source: NBC News)

Dec. 15  Continuing to use winter as a weapon, a Russian barrage of some 70 cruise missiles struck targets across Kharkiv and Kyiv, disrupting power and water systems and driving thousands into underground shelters. Ukraine claimed to have destroyed 60 of the incoming rockets. 

There is also speculation that Russia may launch a renewed assault on Kyiv in the new year. Belarus is allowing Russian troops to assemble in staging areas near the Belarus-Ukraine border. The Russian military build-up in Belarus is explained as joint training exercises by the two countries. Reports also indicate tensions between Russian and Belarusian troops caused by ethnic insults.

 Dec. 19 Ukraine claimed to have intercepted 30 of 35 Iranian-made Shahed drones launched by Russia against Kyiv. Those that got through struck a residential community and power plants, again darkening parts of the city. In the Donbas region intensive ground combat is taking place as Russian forces continued a weeks-long siege of Bakhmut in Donetsk.  The Russian forces attacking Bahkmut are largely of the mercenary Wagner Group. (The Wagner Group is identified above, July 29.) As did Mariupol earlier in the war, Bahkmut has become symbolic of the conflict.

On Dec. 19  Putin flew to Minsk to meet with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. In a post-meeting statement Lukashenko confirmed that Belarus has received Russian-made Iskander missiles. These rockets have a range of up to 310 miles. Putin added that future cooperation could include additional Russian-made Sukhoi-24 attack aircraft. (The Su-24 was developed by the USSR in the 1960s and has been exported and used in multiple conflicts over the decades since. Several former Soviet republics, including both Belarus and Ukraine, have Su-24s in their air forces.) These, however, Putin remarked, have been modified to carry tactical nuclear weapons. The Russian aircraft are, Lukashenko remarked, “not a threat to anyone …. We are very concerned about the tensions along the perimeter [of Russia and Belarus], primarily in the West.” (quotation source: UPI News)

In addition, Lukashenko allegedly said, "You know the two of us are co-aggressors, the most harmful and toxic people on this planet …We have only one argument—who is bigger. Vladimir Vladimirovich (Putin) says I am, I'm starting to think he is, so we decided together. The same. That's all." (quotation source: Newsweek) (author’s comment: Whaaaa?)

On Dec. 21, the BBC Putin made a televised pronouncement that Russia is not to blame for the war and that both countries are “brotherly” nations “sharing a tragedy” bought on by the West.  The West (meaning primarily the US and NATO countries) had “brainwashed” Ukraine and the other post-Soviet republics. “For years we tried to build good-neighborly relations with Ukraine, offering loans and cheap energy, but it did not work …. What’s happening now is a tragedy, but it’s not our fault.” (quotation source: Newsweek)

Dec. 21 Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy traveled to the US to address Congress. The trip had been secretly planned well in advance and involved Zelenskyy’s traveling by train to Poland and then flying to Washington aboard a US Air Force plane.  The flight across the Atlantic was accompanied by US and NATO military aircraft.

Before speaking to Congress, Zelenskyy met with President Biden at the White House. At the Capitol, he received an enthusiastic standing ovation on entering the House chamber. Speaking in halting English, he thanked the US for its support and asserted Ukraine’s will to resist the Russian aggression and ultimately achieve victory.  But very much aware of expressions of future doubts regarding the continuation of massive expenditures in military aid, he insisted that US aid must continue.  “Financial assistance is also critically important and I would like to thank you, thank you very much….Your money is not charity. It’s an investment in the global security and democracy that we handle in the most responsible way.”

In concluding his message, Zelenskyy said, “Standing here today, I recall the words of the President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, which I think so good for this moment: “The American people, in their righteous might, will win through – to absolute victory.” The Ukrainian people will win too. Absolutely.

I know that everything depends on us, on the Ukrainian armed forces, yet so much depends on the world. So much in the world depends on you.

When I was in Bakhmut yesterday, our heroes gave me the flag, the battle flag, the flag of those who defend Ukraine, Europe and the world at the cost of their lives. They ask me to bring this flag to you, to the US Congress to members of the House of Representatives and senators whose decisions can save millions of people. So, let these decisions be taken. Let this flag stay with you, ladies and gentlemen. This flag is a symbol of our victory in this war. We stand, we fight and we will win because we are united – Ukraine, America and the entire free world.

(The flag was a Ukrainian flag signed by soldiers at the Bakhmut battlefront.)

Just one thing, if I can, the last thing, thank you so much, may God protect our brave troops and citizens. May God forever bless the United States of America. Merry Christmas and happy, victorious New Year.”

On Dec. 29  Russia launched a massive missile attack across several regions of Ukraine including Kyiv. This attack also caused more damage to Ukraine's energy infrastructure, knocking out power in several regions amid freezing temperatures. The Ukrainian Defense Ministry said its air defense shot down 54 of the 69 Russian rockets.

In the Donbas nearly the entire 70,000 civilian population of the city of Bakhmut was evacuated  amid ongoing shelling at the frontlines.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said the Kremlin will not negotiate peace with Kyiv based on Zelenskyy's proposed ten point peace plan. 

(Zelenskyy's peace plan, conditions upon which Ukraine will accept peace, was introduced at the November G-20 summit. Here is a summarization of those points: radiation and nuclear safety, food security, energy security, release of prisoners and deportees, implementation of the UN Charter, withdrawal of Russian troops and cessation of hostilities, justice, ecocide and the protection of the environment, prevention of escalation, and confirmation of the end of the war.)

Belarus claimed a missile that landed near the city of Ivanovo was fired from Ukraine. The Ukrainian Defense Ministry denied the attack, identifying it as a Russian provocation but would conduct an investigation.

2023

On January 4, Lynne Tracy assumed office as US Ambassador to Russia.  Formerly Ambassador to Armenia, Tracy is a career diplomat and expert on Russia and post-Soviet countries. Her appointment by President Biden back in April was approved by the Senate on Dec. 21. Russia accepted her assignment. 

On January 6, Putin declared a 36-hour cease-fire for the Orthodox Christmas (Jan. 7).  Ukraine did not accept it, calling it a Russian opportunity to reposition troops along the battlefronts.  The Orthodox Public Affairs Committee, a U.S.-based advocacy group for the global Orthodox Christian Church, condemned Putin's proposal as “a hypocritical act of self-serving desperation.” It noted that "no such cease-fire was proposed for Holy Week and Easter of 2022, and the bombing of innocent civilians continued through the holidays and that "this staged piety...is clearly designed to win points with the despondent, disappointed, and angry people of Russia."…."The Russian government and Russian Orthodox Church have no right to appeal to the Prince of Peace unless they themselves practice peace.”  (quotation source: Newsweek)

Jan 12,  Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that Gen. Sergei Surovikin, commander of the Russian armies in Ukraine since October 2022, will be replaced by Gen. Valery Gerasimov, chief of the Russian military’s General Staff.  Surovikin, known as “General Armageddon” for his earlier combat successes, failed to achieve the quick victory anticipated at the time of his appointment. This has been the fourth command change since the war began in February 2022. Gerasimov (67) has been chief of the General Staff since 2012 and was instrumental in Russia’s seizure of Crimea in 2014.

The battlefront in the Donbas has expanded from Bakhmut to the near-by salt mining town of Soledar. A major factor in the Russian assault on Soledar is the mercenary force known as the Wagner Group. (The Wagner Group is explained above. See June 28, 2022.) Wagner commander Yevgeny Prigozhin announced (Jan 12) that his army has seized all of Soledar. “I want to confirm the complete liberation and cleansing of the territory of Soledar,” …“The whole city is littered with the corpses of Ukrainian soldiers.” The Ukrainian defense ministry denied that Russia had achieved victory.  However, on January  25, 2023, Ukraine announced that its forces had withdrawn from Soledar.

Jan 14, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced that Britain would be sending 14 Challenger 2 tanks and some 30 SA90 self-propelled artillery units to Ukraine.  Germany, France, Canada, and the US had earlier pledged additional armament shipments to Ukraine. President Zelenskyy expressed hope that the British announcement would encourage the others to expedite their shipments.  Some 90 to 100 Ukrainian soldiers have been sent to Fort Sill in Oklahoma to learn how to use the anti-aircraft Patriot missiles, promised by the US in Dec.  Training is expected to last several months. 

 Jan 15, the Ukrainian city of Dnipro was hit by Russian rocket strikes. Over 40 civilians were killed and numerous others wounded as the rockets were targeted at civilian residential areas. Dnipro was hardest hit, but the Russian attack (the largest in weeks) also targeted Kyiv and Kharkiv. Again, the targets were residential areas. The attacks also caused widespread power outages.  The rockets used were Kh-22s, Soviet era anti-ship missiles, fired from bombers over the Sea of Azov. 

Jan 16, Russian warplanes flew into Belarus for an announced series of joint training sessions with the Belorussian air force. The exercises are scheduled through February 1 and are seen as a portent of Belorussian intent to join the war against Ukraine.

CNN reported on Jan.16 that Artur Smolyaninov, a Russian actor, best known as the “Russian Rambo” for his role in the 2005 action movie Devyataya Rota, became the latest of Russian celebrities critical of Vladimir Putin. The film, featuring a Russian unit in Afghanistan, was reputed to be among Putin’s favorites. In an interview with the independent newspaper Novaya Gazeta, Smolyaninov expressed his disgust with Putin and the Russian war in Ukraine, saying that “I feel nothing but hatred to the people on the other (Russian) side of the frontline. And if I were there on the ground, there’d be no mercy.” The Russian Ministry of Justice classified the actor as an enemy agent, subject to arrest. Smolyaninov, however, left Russia in October and is believed to be in Latvia.  In addition, two prominent actors, accused of “anti-Russian sentiments” were fired from the Chekhov Moscow Art Theatre. (In October 2022 Novaya Gazeta’s publishing license was revoked. Based in Latvia, it continues to publish as Novaya Gazeta Europe. Its editor-in-chief Dmitry Muratov was a Nobel Peace Prize recipient  in 2021.)

Jan. 17  In Davos, Switzerland, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres addressed the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF). His pessimistic message expressed concern that the “gravest levels of geopolitical division and mistrust in generations” are undermining international efforts to meet the crises of inflation, energy, environment, pandemic, and supply chain disruption. Representing Ukraine at the meeting was First Lady Olena Zelenska and First Vice Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, both of whom appealed to the participants to support Ukraine in its war against Russian aggression.  (quotation source: Associated Press)

What is the World Economic Forum? The WEF is a Swiss-based international non-governmental and lobbying organization founded in 1971. Its annual gathering is often identified simply as Davos, the Swiss ski resort where it meets. WEF membership is fluid, being a mix of international corporations and individuals concerned with global financial well-being. Participants in its annual meetings include political leaders, academics, economists, journalists, scientists, and celebrities who champion global issues. Unlike the G 7, G 20, and other international organizations with annual summit meetings, Davos is primarily a talkfest that addresses issues affecting global well-being.  Heads of state often attend.  The 2023 Davos meeting is Jan. 16 -20. Its theme is “Cooperation in a Fragmented World.”

On the morning of Jan 18 a helicopter crash near Kyiv took the lives of 14 people, including the Ukrainian Interior Minister Denys Monastysky and two other Interior officials.  Minutes into a flight to Kharkiv, the aircraft crashed near a kindergarten, killing one child and injuring 11 other children.  Reason for the crash remains undetermined. The Interior Ministry functions much like the US Homeland Security Department. 

Jan 20  A bi-partisan delegation of three US Senators visited Kyiv and met with President Zelenskyy. Notable among them was Republican Lindsay Graham (South Carolina). Accompanying him were Democrats Richard Blumenthal (Connecticut) and Sheldon Whitehouse (Rhode Island).  "Graham singled out Germany as he expressed his frustration over a lack of tanks sent to Kyiv by its Western allies, including the United States. 'I am tired of the shitshow of who is going to send tanks and when they are going to send them,' he said. 'To the Germans: send tanks to Ukraine, because they need the tanks. It is in your interest that Putin loses in Ukraine.' Blumenthal said Ukraine's Western allies must 'stop the confusion and the chaotic debate about who sends tanks and when.'" (quotation source: Reuters)

 Jan 23  Germany consented to Poland’s sending German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. The tanks are part of Poland’s arsenal, but Germany holds the export license for the Leopard 2. Twelve other countries with Leopard 2s have likewise expressed intent to send tanks. Germany had been reluctant to itself sending tanks to Ukraine, seemingly waiting for the US to agree to send American tanks to Ukraine. Britain has already committed to send Ukraine 14 Challenger 2 tanks and other pieces of mobile artillery.  Anticipating a major Russian offensive in the spring, Ukraine has been pleading with the West for tanks. There is widespread speculation that the US will soon announce that it will be sending M 1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine. 

CNN reports that "Tanks represent the most powerful direct offensive weapon provided to Ukraine so far, a heavily armed system designed to meet the enemy head on instead of firing from a distance. If used properly with the necessary training, they could allow Ukraine to retake territory against Russian forces that have had time to dig defensive lines."  

Jan. 24 (UPI) Turkish President Recep Erdogan announced that Turkey will not support Sweden’s bid to join NATO.  His announcement was in response to an anti-Muslim demonstration in Stockholm. He also criticized the Swedish government for not acting thoroughly enough to distance itself from the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK), the political movement that seeks the independence of Kurdish territory in Turkey. Turkey considers the PKK as terrorists. (See May 17, 2022 above). The rally in Stockholm took place near the Turkish Embassy. It was the work of Stram Kurs (Hard Line), a right-wing nationalist party led by one Rasmus Paludan.  At the rally, an effigy of Erdogan was hanged and burned, and Paludan burned a copy of the Quran (Koran), the holy book of Islam. The Turkish government demanded Paludan be arrested. In response, the Swedish government condemned the rally, but could not ban it because it did not violate any free speech laws. The Swedish defense minister's visit to Turkey was cancelled. 

Jan 24  As admirable as Zelenskyy appears in the public eye, his government had come under criticism for suspected corruption among several high-ranking officials. Western governments, including the US, were demanding stronger accountability for Ukraine’s spending of the billions of dollars of both humanitarian and military aid. Responding, Zelenskyy demanded the resignations of four deputy ministers and five provincial governors, among them  Kyrylo Tymoshenko, deputy head of the executive office, and Deputy Defense Minister Viacheslav Shapovalov. Deputy Prosecutor General Oleksiy Symonenko also resigned. The  governors were those of Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv, Sumy, and Kherson provinces. All of those dismissed denied any wrong-doing.

Jan 25  German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that Germany would be sending 14 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. This ended a several week period of hesitation by Germany over providing additional military aid to Ukraine.  

US President Joseph Biden announced on Jan 25 that the US would send 31 M 1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine.  His announcement ended several weeks of seeming hesitation on the part of the Administration, claiming that Abrams tanks were not suited for combat in Ukraine, in part because they require a special fuel.   The German decision to send tanks is seen as a demonstration of allied  commitment to Ukraine that the US could not ignore. "We remain united and determined as ever in our conviction and our cause," Biden said at the White House. "These tanks are further evidence of our enduring, unflagging commitment to Ukraine and our confidence in the skill of the Ukrainian forces. As I told President Zelenskyy when he was here ... in December: 'We're with you for as long as it takes, Mr. President.' " (quotation source, ABC News)

Why do tanks matter?  Tanks are heavily armored, highly maneuverable mobile weapons armed with powerful turreted cannons and machine guns with sophisticated sighting and aiming systems. Tanks carry crews of at least four: a commanding officer, a driver, a loader, and a gunner. Western tanks such as the American M 1 Abrams, the German Leopard 2, and the British Challenger are used by most NATO members and are believed superior to the Russian T-tanks (the T-72, -80, -90, and -14, all variations of Soviet era T-72s). Tank units require a great deal of mobile logistical support, such as relief and maintenance personnel, spare parts, munitions, and especially fuel, without which their ability to function on the battlefield would be severely limited. (In the 1944-1945 Battle of the Bulge, the massive German offensive in France and Belgium ultimately failed because the Allies cut off the German supply lines and their tanks literally ran out of gas.) Unlike most tanks fueled with gasoline, the M 1 Abrams tanks have turbo-powered engines requiring a specially refined jet aviation fuel, something not readily available in most military fuel depots.

Jan 26 Russia launched another wave of missiles at energy infrastructure targets in Kyiv, Odesa, and other Ukrainian cities.  Ukraine claimed to have destroyed 47 of the 55 rockets, with 20 being shot down over Kyiv. Eleven civilians were reported killed in the attacks. 

Jan 27  Poland announced that it will send 60 tanks to Ukraine. These vehicles are PT-91Twardys, a Polish-designed tank based on the T-72. (Twardy in Polish means hard, resistant.) Portugal announced on Feb. 4 that it would send  Ukraine an unspecified number of its German-made Leopard tanks. 

While promises of providing new tanks for Ukraine are encouraging, there are profound drawbacks. It will take time, months most likely, to organize the means of shipping to Ukraine the tanks and all that is necessary to operate and supply them.  It will take time, again months, to train Ukrainian military personnel in the use of the vehicles, especially as there are at least four different types of tanks.  

(Author's comment:  Russia regards the intended supplying of tanks to Ukraine as a NATO-sanctioned "escalation" of the conflict. It is. In response, Russia will most likely intensify its rocket attacks on Ukraine's civilian populations and energy infrastructure as well as renew its offensive along the eastern and southern battlefronts. Russia, likewise, will become more hard lined in its anti-Western rhetoric and assertions that NATO is actually at war with Russia through its Ukrainian "puppet".  It is already saying that a negotiated peace is no longer feasible, except on Russia's terms.  Portraying his country  as a victim of Western aggression, Putin could - will - become more paranoid and desperate. Let's say that Russia or Russia's mercenary Wagner Group launches missiles against a NATO supply depot in Poland. How will NATO's an-attack-on-one-is-an-attack-on-all play out then?) 

Back in 1962 during the Cuban Missile Crisis, former Secretary of State Dean Acheson advised President Kennedy that once both sides started shooting at each other, "cooler heads will prevail" to seek a solution. "Cooler heads" are needed now before the shooting begins. JFK, by the way, ignored Acheson in pursuing a solution to the crisis.) 

 Almost immediately following the announcement of US tank shipments, Ukraine responded with a renewed request for American F-16 jet fighter aircraft.  Were the US to agree, such planes would become part of the Ukrainian air force and give Ukraine an important advantage in its war against Russia. In a press conference on Jan. 30, President Biden answered "No" when asked if the US would send the planes.  

Feb. 3 The Army Times reported that the US will provide Ukraine with ground-launched small-diameter bombs. These weapons have a range up to 95 miles.  Currently, Ukraine's US-provided rockets have ranges of no more than 50 miles.  The US had been reluctant to provide longer-ranged weapons, concerned that Ukraine might use them to hit targets inside Russia. 

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksyy Reznikov, in a meeting with EU officials stated, “If we could strike at a distance of up to 300 kilometers (186 miles), the Russian army wouldn’t be able to mount a defense and will have to withdraw. Ukraine is ready to provide any guarantees that your weapons will not be involved in attacks on the Russian territory. We have enough targets in the occupied areas of Ukraine, and we’re prepared to coordinate on (these) targets with our partners.” (quotation source: Army Times)

The weapons were included in a $2.17 billion aid package announced on Feb. 3.  That package also included  $425 million in ammunition and support equipment from existing stockpiles and $1.57 billion to purchase new weapons through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. The latter will pay for Ukraine's purchase of longer-range bombs, air defense system integration, two  HAWK air defense systems (HAWKs are mobile anti-aircraft rockets), anti-aircraft artillery and  ammunition, and anti-drone systems. 

The announcement of the US aid package came on the background of a meeting of a Ukraine-European Union (EU) summit meeting in Kyiv that began on Feb. 2. Standing with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen remarked, "We are here together to show that the EU stands by Ukraine as firmly as ever."  The EU meeting is intended to finalize new sanctions against Russia by February 24, the anniversary of the Russian invasion in 2022. 

At the Feb. 2nd celebrations marking the 80th anniversary of the Soviet liberation of Stalingrad (today Volgograd), Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed a decisive response to any country threatening Russia and lashed out at the EU, Germany specifically, for promising tanks for Ukraine. "It's unbelievable but true. We are again being threatened by German Leopard tanks."  Putin insisted that the war will continue and that Russia is weathering the barrage of sanctions imposed by Ukraine's Western allies and will continue its military campaign in Ukraine.  In Kyiv EU Commissioner von der Leyen said sanctions were effectively "eroding" Russia's economy, "throwing it back by a generation". Von der Leyen sees the existing oil price cap alone as costing Russia some 160 million euros a day. (quotations source: Agence France Presse)   (author's comment: Actually, the German tanks in World War II were Tiger and Panther tanks, but we'll excuse - maybe - Putin for his ignorance of predatory animals. The 1942-1943 brutal siege and battle of Stalingrad was a turning point in World War Two.)  

Feb. 4  The Washington Post reported that in an exchange of prisoners of war, 63 Russian captives were exchanged for 116 Ukrainians. The transfer was mediated by the United Arab Emirates.  Also returned to Ukraine were the bodies of two foreign volunteers, both British, who were killed in eastern Ukraine while assisting in a "humanitarian evacuation." 

Feb. 4  National Public Radio reported that in ending its summit meeting in Kyiv, the 27-nation European Union announced sweeping new sanctions on the purchase of Russian oil products.  The EU nations agreed to ban the purchase from Russia of any and all refined oil products. Previous sanctions had banned the import of Russian crude but not refined products. Refined fuels include diesel and gasoline used in cars, trucks, airplanes, and machinery, basically products that global consumers use daily. Europe had been importing a daily average of 700,000 barrels of Russian diesel, the bulk of Russia's diesel export trade.  That's estimated to be about half of Europe's total oil imports. That loss means Europe will have to seek new suppliers, and Russia will have to seek new markets, most likely in Africa, South America, China, and India. The intent of these decisions is to deny Russia revenues that support its war in Ukraine.  The desired outcome is that Russia's economy, already strained, will suffer further, affecting its ability to finance its war.  However, there is a loophole that will keep some refined oil flowing.  Both India and China are major refiners of crude oil.  Under international agreements, imported oil refined in a country becomes that county's oil. Russian crude can be refined as Indian or Chinese oil and sold universally.  Despite this there will certainly be initial instability in global gas prices.  

 Feb. 5  The German state broadcasting system Deutsche Welle (German Wave) reported that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov issued a public warning to Moldova that it may well become the West’s “next Ukraine.” Speaking in an interview on Russian state television, Lavrov remarked that Moldova “is one of the countries that the West wants to turn into another anti-Russia.” He accused Moldovan President Maia Sandu of having come to office by means ”far from being freely democratic,” and that she was demonstrably anti-Russian, wanting Moldova to join NATO. He also accused her of being a Romanian citizen, wanting to unite Moldova with Romania. (Sandu, born in Moldova in 1952, is Moldovan not Romanian. She is fluent in Romanian. Romanian, along with Russian, is an official language of Moldova.)

Lavrov reminded his viewers of the Transnistria conflict, accusing Sandu of not pursuing efforts to resolve it. (The Transnistria conflict is explained above in the context of April 2022.) He called for a renewal of the “5+2” negotiations: the five being Russia, Moldova, Transnistria, Ukraine, and the Organization for Cooperation and Security in Europe (OCSE), the two, as external observers, are the US and EU. (The 5+2 negotiations began in 2004 but had been suspended numerous times over the years since, the last being in 2022 with the Russian invasion of Ukraine.) Moldova’s being "hand in hand with the pro-NATO, pro-EU drive," explains “volumes” as to why the talks had been suspended. He warned Moldova against its expelling the some 2000 Russian troops (supposedly “peacekeepers”) stationed in Transnistria. (quotations source: Deutsch Welle)

Feb 8 NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg flew to Washington for meetings with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to discuss military assistance for Ukraine.  In comments to the press at the State Department, Stoltenberg stated, “We must continue to provide Ukraine with the weapons it needs to retake territory and prevail as a sovereign independent nation." (quotation source: Washington Post) Appearing on MSNBC's "Morning Joe" on Feb. 9, Stoltenberg was asked if Finland and Sweden would be admitted to NATO.  He explained that through their application for NATO membership they became "invitee" members, in effect becoming partners with NATO. 

Feb 8  Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made an unannounced trip to Britain and France. Flying to London, Zelenskyy met with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and spoke to Parliament, appealing for more military aid.  Addressing Parliament, he appealed for more advanced weapons and "wings for freedom."  Echoing his December presentation of a Ukrainian battle flag to the US Congress, Zelenskyy presented the Speaker of the House of Commons with a Ukrainian Air Force pilot's helmet, inscribed by pilot, "We have freedom. Give us the wings to protect it." For the first time, Sunak said he's open to the idea of providing Ukraine with fighter jets. “Nothing is off the table,” he said at a joint news conference at a British army base. “We must arm Ukraine in the short term, but we must bolster Ukraine for the long term.”  (quotation source: ABC News)  Zelenskyy's brief stay in London also included a meeting with King Charles III.  In his Parliament speech, Zelenskyy noted that Charles was a qualified military pilot. “The king is an air force pilot,” Zelenskyy said, and “in Ukraine today, every air force pilot is a king.” (quotation source: Associated Press)

Within hours of his London visit, Zelenskyy was in Paris, meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. This meeting was unexpected, and French officials had to scurry to make suitable arrangements for a head-of-state visit.  Macron immediately contacted  Scholz, urging him to get to Paris as soon as possible. The three met for dinner at the Elysee Palace at 10:00 PM. “Russia cannot and must not win this war,” Macron said at a joint news conference with Scholz and Zelenskyy ,“As long as Russia continues to attack, we will continue to adapt and moderate the necessary military support to preserve Ukraine and its future.” (quotation source: Agence France Presse) 

Feb. 9  Accompanied by Macron, Zelenskyy traveled to Brussels where he addressed a summit meeting of the European Union's 27 member states. His speech included an appeal for Ukrainian EU membership. “A Ukraine that is winning is going to be member of the European Union.”  Implying  that Russian aggression was a threat to all of Europe, he stated, “Europe will always be, and remain Europe as long as we ... take care of the European way of life". He expressed his hope that talks for Ukrainian membership will start soon, as word of such would be inspiration for Ukraine's battlefront armies. (The EU membership process has been known to take years as states seeking membership must demonstrate democracy, respect for the rule of law and human rights, and demonstrate economic stability.) At the end of his speech, Zelenskyy held up a Ukrainian flag, and the assembly stood for the playing of the Ukrainian and EU anthems. (The EU anthem is Schiller's "Ode to Joy," orchestrated by Beethoven.)  Before Zelenskyy’s speech, European Parliament President Roberta Metsola said allies should consider “quickly, as a next step, providing long-range systems” and fighter jets to Ukraine. The response to Putin’s war against Ukraine “must be proportional to the threat, and the threat is existential,” she said.  Metsola also told Zelenskyy that “we have your back. We were with you then, we are with you now, we will be with you for as long as it takes.” (quotations source: Associated Press)  

Feb 10  Russia launched a new wave of rocket and drone attacks against civilian and energy infrastructure targets across Ukraine. The rockets were fired from naval vessels in the Black Sea, aircraft, and ground-based launching stations, some within Russia itself. Ukraine claimed to have destroyed 61 of the 71 rockets and five of the seven Iranian-made Shahed drones launched in the attack.  The attacks were aimed against Kyiv, Lviv, and Karkhiv.  At the same time Russia intensified its ground operations in the Donbas region, particularly around the long-besieged city of Bahkmut. The Russian action is seen as prelude to an anticipated major spring offensive.  

Neighboring Moldova claimed that the rockets fired by Russian warships crossed over Moldovan airspace, a violation of international law. This took place on the background of a new political issue in Moldova, wherein that country's prime minister suddenly resigned. (We have seen above - Feb 5 - that Russia warned Moldova that its policies might make Moldova the "next Ukraine.")  In office since 2021, Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita struggled with the political kickback of energy shortages caused by both EU and Russian fuel export policies. Her pro-Western political party now faces the new challenge of a future parliamentary election, whereby a government less friendly with the West could come to power. The Moldovan President Maia Sandu commented that she does not see her country abandoning its relations with the West.

 (In a parliamentary government, the Prime Minister (PM) is the head of the political party or parties with the majority in its national assembly. Unlike the US and Britain that have two major political parties, most parliamentary systems are made up of numerous parties, none of which could win a majority on its own. To form a government (i.e., the executive body of a PM and cabinet), parties must join in a coalition. This often requires difficult negotiations and bargaining to arrive at a consensus for forming a majority coalition. In such systems the "head of state" - President, for example, is often elected separately and, depending upon its constitution, either has strong powers or a ceremonial role. The President of France has strong executive power. The King of England's power is largely ceremonial.) 

The British news agency Reuters reported on Feb. 14 that Moldova had closed its airspace, shutting down all commercial air service. The closure came a day after President Maia Sandu accused Russia of sending undercover agents to Moldova in a plot to disrupt and overthrow her government. 

Feb.15 On the Donbas front, Russia continued to intensify its attacks on Ukrainian forces in Bahkmut and nearby villages. The assault comes as NATO defense ministers met in Brussels, seeking means to coordinate arms shipments to Ukraine. The concern is that Russia might gain the battlefront advantage before meaningful supplies, including promised tanks, can even be sent let alone put into combat use.  NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg stated that "we're seeing the start already" of a fresh Russian offensive. (quotation source: HuffPost) The defense ministers of both Sweden and Finland attended the meeting as "invitee members. Stoltenberg urged Turkey to approve Swedish membership.  The consensus among NATO members is that both countries be admitted together. 

Reminder: Sweden and Finland both applied for NATO membership in the spring of 2022. While receptive to Finland's joining, Turkey has wavered on approving the admission of Sweden. The admission of new member states to NATO requires the approval of all of its present members.  Turkey has objections to Sweden's policy regarding the Kurdish rebellion in Turkey. (See May 27, 2022 above.) 

The annual meeting of the Munich Security Conference (Feb. 17 - 19) will see representatives from around the globe meeting in Munich, Germany, to discuss matters of international concern arising from the war in Ukraine.

What is the Munich Security Conference?   It is not an alliance.  According to the Conference’s Website,  the MSC is “the world's leading forum for debating international security policy. It is a venue for diplomatic initiatives to address the world's most pressing security concerns.”  

Founded in 1963 by West Germany and the United States as the Internationale Wehrkunde-Begegnung, the MSC’s original purpose was to reenforce NATO in the Cold War through annual security-related discussions with other European countries. The MSC held its first session at the Bayerischer Hof hotel in Munich, its meeting place ever since. With the end of the Cold War in the 1990s, MSC membership was extended to Russia and other nations across the globe.  Much like the annual World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland (See January 17 above), attendance at MSC sessions is fluid, including “political and military leaders, business CEOs, human rights activists, environmentalists, and other leaders representing “global civil society”.

The MSC identifies its mission. "The MSC's objective is to build trust and to contribute to the peaceful resolution of conflicts by sustaining a continuous, curated and informal dialogue within the international security community. Today, the MSC is the world’s leading forum for debating international security policy. The MSC conceives of its conferences as a type of 'marketplace of ideas' where initiatives and solutions are developed and opinions are exchanged. It provides a venue for official and non-official diplomatic initiatives and ideas to address the world’s most pressing security concerns. The MSC also offers protected space for informal meetings between officials and thus – as its original motto has it – build peace through dialogue. In addition to its annual flagship conference, the MSC regularly convenes high-profile events on particular topics and regions and publishes the Munich Security Report, an annual digest of relevant figures, maps, and research on crucial security challenges."  (quotations source: MSC Website)  

Traditionally inclusive, the MSC this year did not extend invitations to Russia and Iran.  Both nations had been attendees for decades, but Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Iran's suppression of human rights, particularly regarding women, deemed them unfit for participation. An unusually large bipartisan American delegation led by Vice President Kamala Harris and Secretary of State Antony Blinken included former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D), Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D), Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R), and Senator Lindsay Graham (R), all of whom in their remarks affirmed continued support for Ukraine. Addressing the conference, Harris accused Russia of committing crimes against humanity.

(author's comment: As with most of us reading this account, I had never heard of the MSC before now - Feb 16.  So much for my being an observer of world affairs!)  

Russian news sources reported the death by suicide (Feb 16) of Marina Yankina, finance director of Russia's Western Military District.  She was reported to have committed suicide by jumping from the 16th floor of her St. Petersburg apartment. Her death follows that of General Vladimir Makarov. Makarov had earlier been fired from his position as a security director in the Interior Ministry. Makarov's death (Feb 13) was also reported as a suicide.  Both Makarov's and Yankina's deaths add to a growing list of recent deaths of other significant Russian business and government personnel. (See Oct 17, 2022 above.) 

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, speaking to a panel at the Munich Security Conference on Feb 18, announced that the United Kingdom would be sending long-range missiles to Ukraine and appealed to other states to follow the UK's direction in aiding Ukraine. “What is at stake in this war is even greater than the security and sovereignty of one nation. It’s about the security and sovereignty of every nation," .... “Because Russia’s invasion, its abhorrent war crimes and irresponsible nuclear rhetoric are symptomatic of a broader threat to everything we believe in .... When Putin started this war, he gambled that our resolve would falter. Even now he is betting we will lose our nerve. But we proved him wrong then, and we will prove him wrong now.”

The Associated Press reported on Feb. 19 that grain shipments from Ukraine have dropped considerably since the July 2022 UN-brokered Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) permitting Ukrainian grain to pass through Russia's naval blockade of Ukrainian ports.  Under the BSGI, grain-carrying vessels going to and from Ukraine must stop for inspection in Istanbul before being permitted to pass on to their destinations. The inspections, by Turkish, Russian, and Ukrainian teams, are for weapons and any other materials that might in any way contribute to the war effort.  Slow-downs in inspections have caused a bottleneck effect of ships having to wait to be inspected. Over 150 ships are currently waiting. 

We are herewith reminded of the global impact of the war. The delay of shipments means rising prices for consumers and the greater threat of widespread starvation. Particularly affected are nations in the Horn of Africa (Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, South Sudan). Already devastated by drought, Somalia had become dependent upon grain supply from Ukraine and Russia. Some 13 million people are threatened with starvation. The same is true for another 18 million in the Sahel, the drought-stricken transnational area south of the Sahara.

Feb. 19 In an impassioned address to the Munich Security Conference, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned what a Russian victory in Ukraine would mean.  "Some worry that our support to Ukraine risks triggering escalation. Let me be clear. There are no risk-free options. But, the biggest risk of all is if Putin wins."   A Putin victory would enable other "authoritarian" leaders to use force to achieve their goals, making the world "more dangerous" and NATO nations "more vulnerable."  "So supporting Ukraine is not only the morally right thing to do. It is also in our own security interest".

Stoltenberg urged strengthening deterrence and defense because "wars are unpredictable," and it remains unknown whether the war in Ukraine has an end in sight.

"But I do know this. Even if the war ends tomorrow, our security environment has changed for the long-term. There is no going back. The Kremlin wants a different Europe. One where Russia controls neighbors," Stoltenberg said. (quotations source: Newsweek)  

On Feb. 20, US President Biden made a surprise visit to Kyiv.  Biden had traveled to Poland as part of a scheduled European trip, but his going to Kyiv and meeting with Zelenskyy had been kept secret for security reasons. The President traveled by rail from Poland to the Ukrainian capital, a ten-hour ride. Through a White House statement Biden said, “As the world prepares to mark the one-year anniversary of Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, I am in Kyiv today to meet with President Zelenskyy and reaffirm our unwavering and unflagging commitment to Ukraine’s democracy, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. When Putin launched his invasion nearly one year ago, he thought Ukraine was weak and the west was divided. He thought he could outlast us. But he was dead wrong.”  In another statement, Biden announced “another delivery of critical equipment, including artillery ammunition, anti-armor systems and air surveillance radars” as well as more sanctions. (quotations source: New York Times)

Following a meeting with Zelenskyy at the Mariinsky Palace (Ukr.'s official presidential residence), the two leaders went to the St. Michael's Monastery cathedral to pay respects at the memorial wall honoring those Ukrainians killed in combat. When they were at St. Michaels air raid sirens sounded, a dramatic reminder of the reality of life in Ukraine. The visit was very short, the President spending only five hours in Kyiv. Still, the visit was seen as a significant morale builder for Ukrainian resistance to the Russian invasion.

Biden's trip had been secretly planned over several months by the White House, security, and military personnel. It was also agreed that once the President was on his way to Kyiv that Russia be informed of the visit. 

Feb. 21 In his annual State of the Nation message Russian President Vladimir Putin blamed the West for starting the war and announced that Russia was suspending its participation in the New START treaty. (The New START treaty is considered above. See Nov 11 and 28, 2022.)  Putin accused the US and NATO of openly declaring the goal of Russia's defeat in Ukraine.  “They want to inflict a ‘strategic defeat’ on us and try to get to our nuclear facilities at the same time," he said. Alleging US duplicity, he accused the US of wanting to resume inspections of Russian nuclear facilities while its NATO allies were helping Ukraine launch drone attacks against Russian air bases

Putin argued that while the U.S. has pushed for the resumption of inspections of Russian nuclear facilities under the treaty, NATO allies had helped Ukraine mount drone attacks on Russian air bases hosting nuclear-capable strategic bombers.  (Ukrainian drones did strike a Russian strategic airbase at Engels on Dec. 5, 2022. See above. ) “The drones used for it were equipped and modernized with NATO's expert assistance,” Putin said. “And now they want to inspect our defense facilities? In the conditions of today's confrontation, it sounds like sheer nonsense.” 

Putin also said that Russia should stand ready to resume nuclear weapons tests if the U.S. does so, a move that would end a global ban on nuclear weapons tests in place since Cold War times. (Here Putin's "global ban" is most likely referencing the1963 Nuclear Test Ban treaty and its subsequent adoption by other countries as the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.)   (quotations source: Associated Press)

(author’s comment: Putin’s speech accuses the US and NATO as aiding the December Ukrainian drone attacks against Russian airbases. We are remined that Russia uses Iranian-made Shahed “suicide” drones in its frequent attacks on Ukrainian civilians.)

Following his visit to Kyiv, President Biden returned to Poland where, in an impassioned speech to a large crowd assembled at the Royal Castle in Warsaw, he lambasted Putin and the Russian war against Ukraine and affirmed a unified Western response.  Putin "thought NATO would fracture and divide,"  ... "Instead, NATO is more united and more unified than ever before. He thought he could weaponize energy to crack your resolve -- Europe's resolve. Instead, we're working together to end Europe's dependence on Russian fossil fuels."  “When Russia invaded, it wasn’t just Ukraine being tested. The whole world faced a test for the ages,” .... “Europe was being tested. America was being tested. NATO was being tested. All democracies were being tested.”

“One year ago, the world was bracing for the fall of Kyiv. Well, I’ve just come from a visit to Kyiv and I can report Kyiv stands strong. Kyiv stands proud, it stands tall and most important, it stands free”  .... “President Putin’s craven lust for land and power will fail,”  .... “Autocrats only understand one word: No. No, no. No, you will not take my country. No, you will not take my freedom. No, you will not take my future.”

“Ukraine, Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia. Never.” 

In addition, Biden praised Poland and the Polish people for welcoming Ukrainian refugees who fled their country at the beginning of the Russian invasion. 

For the full text of President Biden's speech, see ...

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/02/21/remarks-by-president-biden-ahead-of-the-one-year-anniversary-of-russias- brutal-and-unprovoked-invasion-of-ukraine/

Feb 22.  President Biden's visit to Poland continued with a meeting with NATO's Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and then addressing a meeting of the Bucharest Nine (B9), assuring the B9 delegates of the US commitment to NATO.  

 (The B9?  Prompted by the Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014, nine eastern European members of NATO met in the Romanian capital Bucharest to formulate a common response should Russia threaten their security as well. The nine are Romania, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Slovakia. Readers are reminded that all of these countries had either once been part of the Russian Empire/Soviet Union or - from 1945 to 1989 - under Moscow-directed Communist control.)

Biden also met with Moldovan President Maia Sandu and endorsed Moldova’s bid to join the European Union.  In June 2022 the EU granted Moldova candidate status.  Sandu's seeking a closer relationship with the West and the territorial issue of Transnistria has strained Moldova's relationship with Russia. (See Feb. 5 and 10 above.)  In his Warsaw speech, Biden singled out Sandu, commenting, “I’m proud to stand with you and the freedom-loving people of Moldova.”  

When asked by reporters what the President thought of Putin's announcement suspending Russian participation in the New START Treaty, Biden's comment was a terse "Big Mistake."  

On the background of these events, relations between the US and China have become increasingly strained. A visit to Beijing by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken was canceled earlier in February when a Chinese high altitude spy balloon crossed US territory.  On Feb. 14, the balloon was shot down off the Atlantic coast on orders of President Biden. China claimed that the balloon was for weather research, not espionage.

(author’s comment: Considering that China has intelligence-gathering satellites in orbit above the Earth, and, using Google or Bing maps, anyone can see everything on the ground through satellite photography, why make such a fuss over a balloon? Just because it’s there, I guess.)

Blinken later cautioned China about aiding Russia. Heretofore, China’s policy regarding the war in Ukraine had been non-committal.  China and Russia do have a trade relationship, but that, China claims, does not include “lethal” military material. Meeting with China’s leading diplomat Wang Yi at the Munich Security Conference, Blinken warned China about providing Russia with “non-lethal” weapons.  In a general statement to the MSC, Wang said “We do not want to see the Ukraine crisis protracted and expanded, and we are willing to work with the international community to avoid further deterioration of the situation and persevere in striving for peace.” (quotation source: NBC News)  Wang Yi is Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission of the Chinese Communist Party.  In this capacity he outranks China's Foreign Minister Qin Gang.  Qin Gang, a former Ambassador to the US, was appointed Foreign Minister in Dec. 2022.

Wang traveled to Moscow on Feb. 21 to meet with Putin in anticipation of a future visit by China’s President Xi Jinping. The timing of Xi’s visit has not yet been determined, possibly April or early May when Russia celebrates its victory over Germany in World War Two.  

Feb. 23 The US announced that it is sending up to 200 military personnel to Taiwan. The American troops will serve as advisors in training Taiwanese forces on the use of US weapons. (The relationship of China with Taiwan has long been highly contentious and is considered above. See Nov, 2022.) 

The United Nations General Assembly on Feb. 23 voted overwhelmingly to approve a resolution demanding that Russia immediately and unconditionally withdraw its armies from Ukraine and seek a "just and lasting" peace.  Reaffirming Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, 141 members voted in favor of the resolution. Joining Russia in opposing the resolution were Belarus, Eritrea, Mali, Nicaragua, North Korea, and Syria.  Among the 32 states that abstained from voting were China, India, Pakistan, and South Africa.  

A UN resolution is simply a statement of position. The UN has no power to enforce it unless approved by the Security Council.  Both Russia and China are permanent members of the Security Council, and, as such, hold the power to veto. Neither Russia nor China would approve the resolution.

Feb. 24 marked anniversary of the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.  We are reminded that Putin justified the invasion as a "special military operation" to defend Russian Ukrainians from persecution and genocide by Zelenskyy's "Nazi" regime and to "demilitarize" Ukraine to make it no longer a threat to Russia's security.  Putin expected a Russian victory within days.  

We are also reminded of Winston Churchill's remarks made in a speech to the Canadian Parliament in Dec. 1941. In it he is referencing the fall of France to the Germans in 1940. By late 1941 Britain had survived the Blitz, the German bombing of London and other cities. “When I warned them (meaning the French) that Britain would fight on alone whatever they did, their generals told their Prime Minister and his divided Cabinet, ‘In three weeks England will have her neck wrung like a chicken.’ Some chicken! Some neck!” 

 In a somber ceremony in Kyiv Ukrainian President Zelenskyy marked the anniversary acknowledging the sacrifices and courage of Ukraine's armed forces. In an address to the assembled military units, he praised their valor and patriotism, telling them  “It is you who will decide whether we are all going to exist. Whether Ukraine is going to exist. Every day. Every hour. It is you – Ukrainian soldiers – which will decide it."

On the background of the anniversary, the US and G 7 announced another wave of sanctions against Russian personnel, businesses, banks, arms dealers, tech firms tied to weapons production, and business operations in other countries trading proscribed materials with Russia. 

“Our sanctions have had both short-term and long-term impact, seen acutely in Russia’s struggle to replenish its weapons and in its isolated economy,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a written statement. "Our actions today with our G 7 partners show that we will stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes.”

Yellen is attending the G 20 finance ministers and central bank heads' meetings in Bengaluru, India, this week. On Feb. 24 she told senior Russian officials attending meetings that “their continued work for the Kremlin makes them complicit in Putin’s atrocities,” adding that they “bear responsibility for the lives and livelihoods being taken in Ukraine and the harm caused globally." (quotations source: CNN News)  

At the meeting's conclusion on Feb. 25, the G 20 drafted a statement that included two paragraphs condemning the war from the group's earlier declaration made at the Bali conference in Nov. 2022. Both the Russian and Chinese finance ministers, claiming circumstances had changed since November, demanded that those paragraphs be deleted from the report. They were. 

In a demonstration of its alleged non-committal position regarding the war, China, on Feb. 24,  announced a 12-point plan for peace.  The plan deals in generalities, not specifics.  Both sides should respect the sovereignty of all countries,  abandon the "Cold War mentality", cease hostilities, resume peace talks; resolve the humanitarian crisis, protect civilians and prisoners of war, keep nuclear power plants safe, reduce strategic risks, facilitate grain exports, stop unilateral sanctions, keep industrial and supply chains stable, and promote post-war reconstruction. ("Cold War mentality" is in refence to security blocs of allied nations, such as NATO.)  

In response Ukraine made it clear that any peace agreement must recognize its 1991 borders and that Russia withdraw from Crimea and the other Ukrainian regions it "annexed" in 2022.  Russia must also remove its troops from Ukraine before any peace talks would even begin. Still, Zelenskyy did say he would like to meet sometime with Chinese President Xi.  Russia, seeking China's good will and support, thanked China for the plan. 

However, Russia, on Feb. 27, announced that it could not accept any peace plan that failed to recognize the "new territorial realities" in Ukraine.  Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for the Kremlin, announced  that "We paid a lot of attention to our Chinese friends' plan" ... but ..."For now, we don't see any of the conditions that are needed to bring this whole story towards peace." The conditions for peace specifically sought by Russia are international recognition of the legitimacy of Russia's annexation of the Ukrainian territories Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson as well as acceptance of Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea. (quotations source: The Moscow Times as reported by Business Insider)

Fighting in the Donbas region of Donetsk intensified as Russian forces pressed their siege of Bakhmut. While not yet completely cut off from supply and reinforcements, the city's Ukrainian defenders acknowledge that munitions are running low and that some army units are being repositioned. "Repositioning" usually means being withdrawn. (author's comment: Bakhmut has become another Mariupol - see above, May 2022.   As was Mariupol, Bakhmut is of great symbolic significance. If Ukraine loses the city, it will be a tremendous propaganda boost for Putin and further Russia's hold in Donetsk which was "annexed" to Russia in the fall of 2022. Conversely, it will be a significant defeat for Ukraine.)

Mar. 7 NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg expressed gratitude to Albania's President Bajram Begaj for pledging additional funds for Ukraine. Stoltenberg praised Albania as a "valued Ally, (playing) a key role promoting stability in the Western Balkans, a region of strategic importance to NATO." (quotation source: CNBC News)

Ukraine expressed the need to renew the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI), scheduled to expire on March 18. Russia, however, has reservations, alleging that the shipments are being used to smuggle arms into Ukraine. The BSGI was initiated in July 2022 and allows Ukrainian grain shipments to pass through the Russian naval blockade. See Feb 19 above for last report on the BSGI. (See Mar. 13 below.)

Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko accused Ukraine and the US of supporting a "terrorist group" in Belarus, citing the drone destruction of a Russian surveillance plane at an airbase near Minsk.  Lukashenko, Putin's most avid ally, recently traveled to China where he met with President Xi Jinping.  In Beijing, both leaders affirmed their countries' friendship and condemned the West's support for Ukraine.  Relations between China and the US  have become strained over the issue of China's "non-lethal" aid for the Russian war effort.   (author's comment: Lukashenko is Putin's ally because he's terrified his country would be next - it most likely is - in Putin's expansionist ambitions. Cozying up with China might serve to make Putin less inclined to move on Belarus. Still, Lukashenko will serve as Putin's obedient lapdog. This again brings Winston Churchill to mind, "An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last.” )  

Newsweek  reported on Mar. 7 that the Hungarian Parliament will most likely vote in favor of Sweden's admission to NATO.  If this proves true, it reflects a significant rebuke of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's openly expressed  opposition to NATO expansion.  Although Hungary is a member of NATO, Orbán's  policy has been non-committal regarding the conflict in Ukraine.  Claiming to be working for peace, his actions show him highly sympathetic to Putin's claims that the Russian war in Ukraine is in defense of an expanding NATO.  (author's comment: A factor underlying Orbán's pro-Russian stance may be Hungary's high dependence upon natural gas imported from Russia. We are also reminded that Turkey, a NATO member, is opposed to Sweden's membership.)  A week later Hungary announced (Mar. 14) that its parliament has delayed a scheduled vote on NATO membership for Sweden and Finland. 

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres met with Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv on Mar. 8. In his public remarks Guterres expressed hope that the Black Sea Grain Initiative will be renewed. “I want to underscore the critical importance of the rollover of the Black Sea Grain Initiative,” .... “It contributed to lowering the global cost of food and has offered critical relief to people, who are also paying the high price for this war, particularly in the developing world.”  (quotation source: Associated Press)

Mar. 9  Russia launched widespread missile strikes on targets across Ukraine. Russian justified the attack as retaliation for an alleged March 2 Ukrainian terrorist attack on Bryansk, a town just inside Russia's border. Ukraine denied any such attack, claiming it was a Russian "false flag".  Ukraine Claimed to have shot down 34 of the 81 rockets fired across ten regions, including Kyiv, Lviv, Dnipro, Odesa, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia.  The targets, as described by President Zelenskyy, were "critical infrastructure and residential areas". A spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force reported that of the Russian missiles six were Kinzhal hypersonic weapons.  (quotations source: Newsweek) 

The Associated Press reported that the Kinzhal is "one of the latest and most advanced Russian weapons. The Russian military says the air-launched ballistic missile has a range of up to 1,250 miles and flies at ten times the speed of sound, making it hard to intercept. A combination of hypersonic speed and a heavy warhead allows the Kinzhal to destroy heavily fortified targets ..."  

Mar. 10  Ukraine announced that it was terminating the Russian Orthodox Church’s lease to the Pechersk monastery in Kyiv. The church at Pechersk is one of Kyiv’s landmarks, noted for its architecture and grounds.  The Russian monks have historically looked to Moscow for leadership and are under suspicion of being sympathetic to Russia’s war against Ukraine. Kirill, the Russian Orthodox Patriarch, has condemned Ukraine as anti-Christ. (Kirill is discussed above in the section on Putin at the beginning of this chapter.)  He is uncompromisingly loyal to Putin and has described the Russian leader as “a miracle of God”, who, through this war, is restoring Russia to its imperial greatness.  Ukraine has set March 29 as the deadline for the monks to leave Pechersk.

Mar 13  Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin announced that Russia will agree to a renewal of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) but only for 60 days. The BSGI enables shipments of Ukrainian grains and other agricultural products to pass through Russian naval blockades. 

Mar 14  Russia-US relations, already strained by the war, were further exacerbated on Mar. 14 when a Russian military jet collided with a US surveillance drone over the Black Sea. The Department of Defense reported that the drone, a MQ 9 Reaper, was in international waters when two Russian SU 27 fighter jets intercepted it. One of the planes struck the drone's propeller, disabling the craft and sending it crashing into the sea. Russia's Defense Ministry denied intercepting the drone, claiming it was flying with its transponders off and went into "unguided flight" causing it to crash. Russia claims a large stretch of the Black Sea off Crimea as its territorial waters.

The Reaper is a relatively large aircraft, 36 feet long with a 66 foot wingspan, weighing 4900 lbs. It has a range of 1400 nautical miles and can reach an altitude of 50,000 feet and stay aloft for 24 hours. Driven by a stern-mounted propeller, its top speed is 275 mph. If armed, it can carry up to eight laser-guided missiles.  It is flown remotely by two operators. Each Reaper costs about $32 million. 

In a statement to Newsweek, Russian Ambassador Anatoly Antonov denied the US report of the incident, stating there was no Russian harassment or physical contact with the US drone.

"We are well aware of the missions such reconnaissance and strike drones are used for," the ambassador said in a communique quoted by TASS (the Russian state news agency). "What do they do thousands of miles away from the United States? The answer is obvious; they gather intelligence which is later used by the Kyiv regime to attack our armed forces and territory."

"Let us ask a rhetorical question: if, for example, a Russian strike drone appeared near New York or San Francisco, how would the U.S. Air Force and Navy react? I am quite confident that the U.S. military would act in an uncompromising way and would not allow its airspace or territorial waters to be breached," he added.

"We proceed from the fact that the United States will refrain from further speculations in the media landscape and stop making sorties near the Russian borders...We perceive any actions involving the use of American weapons and military equipment as openly hostile.” (quotations source: Newsweek)

  (author’s comment: Let’s look at some history. Early in this chapter I reminded readers that xenophobia has been the primary foundation for Russian expansionism. That xenophobia created and perpetuates the Russian tradition of autocratic rule. Russia’s leadership, be it czar, commissar, or Putin, has long regarded the Black Sea as a Russian lake. Predominance over, if not control of, the Black Sea is seen as vital to Russia’s security.

We can liken this somewhat to the American attitude regarding the Caribbean Sea. The 1823 Monroe Doctrine basically told the world that the Western Hemisphere was closed to further European colonization. Within this context the US would not allow any foreign power to seek hegemony over the Caribbean. Several times in the 19th and 20th centuries the US exercised military action to keep Caribbean and Central American states “free.”  Cuba should come to mind. The 1898 Spanish American War was fought in defense of Cuba seeking its independence from Spain.  A “free” Cuba would be much more accommodating of US business interests on the island.  In 1903 the US used the threat of force to compel Colombia to recognize an independence movement (fomented and supported by the US) in Panama. Once independent, Panama allowed the US to build and control the Panama Canal, a waterway vital to world trade.  Control of the Canal meant control of Panama. The US fomented a coup d'état in Guatemala in 1954 to prevent that country from establishing a socialist (“commie”) government that would nationalize US business interests in Guatemala. In 1961 the US sanctioned a rebel invasion of Cuba intended to overthrow the Communist government of Fidel Castro. Castro’s government had seized all American businesses in Cuba. When Castro allowed the Soviets to establish missile bases Cuba, the US imposed a naval quarantine -blockade- on Soviet shipping to Cuba. This prompted the Cuban Missile Crisis, the closest the US and Soviet Union ever came to nuclear war. All of the continental US was within minutes striking range of the Soviet missiles on Cuba.  Fortunately, “cooler heads” prevailed and the Soviets withdrew their missiles and nuclear arms from Cuba. But the bottom line remained. The Caribbean was – and is still – of vital interest to the US. From the Russian perspective, the Black Sea is as much a Russian lake, as is the Caribbean an American lake.  Putin sees the US, NATO, and EU support for Ukraine as foreign interference in a region of vital interest to Russia. This is what makes any possible armed incident between Russian and Western militaries extremely dangerous.  Let's hope there are still some "cooler heads" in both military and political leadership.)

 Mar.16  Poland and Slovakia, both NATO members, announced that they would send fighter jets to Ukraine. Ukraine has long been asking for modern aircraft, such as the US-made F-16, but the major alliance powers are reluctant to do so.  The planes, four from Poland and 13 from Slovakia are Soviet-era MIG-29s, similar to those already part of the Ukrainian Air Force.  Slovakia states that most of the planes it's sending are not combat ready and would be best used for spare parts. 

(author's comment: The US Air Force announced in early March that several Ukrainian air force personnel have been in the US learning how to train pilots in flying F-16s. At this time (March 2023) they are working only with flight simulation, not actual in-flight operation. The objective is to learn how long it would take a pilot to become proficient in flying and fighting the aircraft.  Right now combat readiness for the US air forces requires 18 months of training. What's involved?  Those readers who are "Top Gun" movie enthusiasts should have a good idea of what it takes.)

Mar. 17  The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued a warrant for the arrest of Russian President Vladimir Putin, charging him and others with authorizing the forcible deportation of Ukrainian children.

Russia justifies the program whereby it transported thousands of Ukrainian children to Russia as a humanitarian policy protecting orphans and children abandoned in the war zones. In an angry response, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia "found the very questions raised by the ICC 'outrageous and unacceptable', and that any decisions of the court were 'null and void' ...."  Ukrainian President Zelenskyy "said the move would lead to 'historic accountability', adding that the deportations constituted a policy of 'state evil which starts precisely with the top official of this state.' " (quotation source: Reuters)

    Located in The Hague, Netherlands, the ICC is a123-nation body founded through the 1998 Treaty of Rome. Its function is to service as a criminal court charged with investigating alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity. Notable among those nations opting not to join the ICC are the US, China, and Russia.  (The ICC is described above. See April 26, 2022.)  

Mar. 20  As a sort of prelude to his summit meeting with China's President Xi Jinping, Putin made a visit to the city of Mariupol. Mariupol, in the southern Donbas, was the focus of two months of intense fighting in the spring of 2022. (author's comment: Readers might recall the heroic resistance of Ukrainian forces at Mariupol's Azovstal steel plant. See April, 2022 above. This was Putin's first visit to a location in Ukraine.  Of course, Mariupol is in Ukrainian territory that had been "annexed" to Russia, so from his point of view he was not in Ukraine at all but in Russian territory liberated from Zelenskyy's "Nazi" regime.) 

March 20 also saw the arrival in Moscow of Chinese President Xi Jinping for a three day visit consisting mostly of meetings with Putin, state dinners, and   much ceremonial pomp and circumstance.  For Putin, Xi's visit was of great propaganda value.  There are concerns among Western nations that China might provide lethal weapons for Russia's war in Ukraine. While official statements by both Chinese and Russian spokespersons denied any arms agreement between the two countries, what agreements there were affirmed a closer relationship, heralding, as Xi stated, a "new era" of cooperation. "We signed an agreement on deepening ... strategic partnership and bilateral ties."  While stressing China's neutrality in regard to the war in Ukraine, Xi cited China's 12-point plan for peace,  "We are guided by the principles of the United Nations ... and promote a peaceful settlement. We are always for peace and dialogue," 

A joint statement issued at the end of Xi's visit cited new trade and business agreements whereby Russia would import more Chinese electronic goods and Russia would provide additional gas deliveries to China. The two countries would also expand their transport links with new roads and bridges.  According to the statement, the relationship between Russia and China, had reached "its highest level ever" but was not a "military-political alliance." Relations between Russia and China "do not constitute a bloc, do not have a confrontational nature and are not directed against third countries.  (quotations source: Associated Press)

On March 23 Hungary announced that were Putin to visit that country, he need not fear arrest under the ICC charge of criminal deportation of Ukrainian children.  Hungary both signed and ratified the 1998 Treaty of Rome creating the ICC, but claims the justice provisions of the treaty are not part of Hungary's legal system.  

March  24 The US announced new economic sanctions to be imposed on Belarus. The sanctions prohibit Americans from doing business with several major Belarusian automobile and truck manufacturers and specified individuals in the management of those industries. The targeted businesses are major sources of revenue for Lukashenko's government.  The US justified the sanctions on grounds that the Lukashenko regime used brutal and extralegal force against pro-democracy demonstrators protesting the results of the 2020 Belarusian elections. The move comes as renewed suppression of demonstrations is anticipated for the March 25 "Freedom Day" anniversary. (It was on March 25, 1918, that Belarus declared its independence from the Russian Empire, prior to the creation of the Soviet Union.)  While not an official holiday, anti-government demonstrations have been held in Minsk on March 25 since the 2020 election put Lukashenko in power. 

The Associated Press reported that on March 25 Putin announced that Russia will be stationing tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.  He justified this action as a response to the British decision to provide Ukraine with armor-piercing  ammunition.  (Such ammunition is used by the Challenger tanks that Britain is sending to Ukraine.) The British weapons, Putin claimed, contain "nuclear components".  The British shells are made with non-lethal depleted uranium. Making the announcement on Russian state television, Putin stated Belarusian President Lukashenko had asked for the weapons, but that Russia would have control of the tactical nukes and oversee the construction of their storage facilities. In remarks on Russian-Belarusian relations, Putin cited Russian aid on modernizing Belarusian military aircraft making them capable of carrying nuclear warheads. 

 (author's comment: Depleted uranium has been used for decades in both American and British - and Russian - arms development. The International Atomic Energy Agency, to which Russia belongs, sees depleted uranium as non-lethal unless ingested. So, don't eat it!  It's also noteworthy that when China and Russia issued their joint statement at the end of  Xi's recent visit to Moscow, they both pledged not to send nuclear weapons to other countries.)

The French Foreign Ministry issued the following statement.  "France condemns the statement of the Russian President on the agreement between Russia and Belarus on the deployment of nuclear weapons there. Following Russia's violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which led to its termination, and the announcement of the suspension of Russia's participation in the intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty last February, this agreement represents a further erosion of the international arms control architecture and strategic stability in Europe." (quotation source: French Foreign Ministry)

The European Union's High Commissioner for Foreign Policy and Security, Josep Borrell Fontelles, tweeted "Belarus hosting Russian nuclear weapons would mean an irresponsible escalation and threat to European security. Belarus can still stop it, it is their choice. The EU stands ready to respond with further sanctions." The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry called for a meeting of the Permanent Members of the UN Security Council "to counter the nuclear threat from the Kremlin."  US State Department spokesman Vedant Patel reported that the US has not "seen any reason to adjust our own strategic nuclear posture, nor any indications Russia is preparing to use a nuclear weapon."  (quotations source: Newsweek)

Mar. 28 The Associated Press reported that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy had extended an invitation to China's President Xi Jinping to meet with him in Kyiv.  With world attention having recently been centered on the meeting of Xi with Putin, questions arose on how Russia might react to the possibility of a Xi-Zelenskyy summit.  When asked, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded,  "We know China's balanced position, we value it highly and we believe the leader of China makes his own decisions on the expediency of certain contacts. We have no right to offer any advice here."  (quotation source: Reuters) 

Key to any meaningful discussions between Zelenskyy and Xi would be China's 12-point peace plan. The plan was announced on Feb. 24, and both Ukraine and Russia disagree on parts of the Chinese plan, particularly those relating to the conditions of any cease-fire and the future status of Ukrainian territories "annexed" to Russia. (The intense fighting in the Donbass should remind us that Russia does not have secure control of any of those territories.) Zelenskyy has made it clear that Ukraine will consider peace settlements only after Russian troops have been withdrawn from Ukrainian territory. Still, Zelenskyy would like to meet with Xi. 

We see above (March 23) that Hungary would not arrest Putin were the Russian leader to visit.  However, the Russian state news agency TASS reports that because of Hungary's being an EU member it has been added to Russia's "Unfriendly Nations List."  The list is of those states that had committed "unfriendly actions against Russia, its companies and citizens."  It includes, therefore, the EU members, US, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and other countries supporting Ukraine. Russia's ambassador to Hungary, Yevgeny Stanislavov, stated that Russia would keep "channels of dialogue open .... Hungary has signed all the anti-Russian sanctions packages of Brussels and is forced to strictly comply with them. That is why it is classified as a country unfriendly to Russia, against which our retaliatory measures can be applied."  However, he said that Moscow was "optimistic" that there would be "constructive interaction with Hungary."  (quotations source: Newsweek) This most likely will be the case as Hungarian prime Minister Viktor Orbán  has shown himself friendly towards Putin and has not supported EU policies sanctioning Russia or NATO's military assistance to Ukraine. Hungary, consequently, is exempt from cutbacks of Russian natural gas shipments to other EU states.   

Mar. 30  Russia announced the arrest of American journalist Evan Gershkovich on suspicion of "espionage in the interests of the American government".  The arrest was made by the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) in the city of Yekaterinburg.  Gershkovich (31), a reporter for the Wall Street Journal, was taken to the Lefortovo court in Moscow and formally arraigned. He is the first American journalist to be arrested on espionage charges in Russia since Nicholas Daniloff in 1986. (Daniloff, a reporter for US News and World Report, was later exchanged for Gennady Zakharov, a Soviet spy captured in an FBI sting operation.)  The US denies allegations of Gershkovich being a spy and has demanded he be released.  He will be imprisoned in Moscow until May 29 when he will be returned to court for trial. His recent journalistic work had been investigating the effect and impact of Western sanctions on the Russian economy.   On April 1, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken spoke by telephone with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, demanding Gershkovich's release as well as that of American businessman Paul Whelan, held in Russia since 2018.  Russia's Foreign Ministry reported that Lavrov rejected the demand, claiming Gershkovich was "caught red-handed, collecting information on an enterprise of the military-industrial complex." (quotation source: Time Magazine)

April 3  NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced that Finland will be admitted to NATO on Tuesday, April 4. Finland becomes, therefore, the 31st nation to join the alliance.  With Finland in the alliance, NATO's territorial reach extends another 830 miles along Russia's western boundaries. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander warned that Russia would increase its military presence in its western regions If the “forces and resources of other NATO members are deployed in Finland." (quotation source:  The Guardian)

Finland remains newsworthy as Prime Minister Sanna Marin's Social Democratic Party failed to win a majority in that country's April 1 parliamentary elections.  Sanna Marin was appointed Prime Minister in 2019, and, at 37-years old, she among the youngest heads of government in Europe. While successful in leading Finland's response to the Covid pandemic and being an enthusiastic supporter of Ukraine in its war with Russia (hence, Finland's seeking admission to NATO), her progressive economic programs proved inflationary and unpopular. Finland has a parliamentary system of government. (See Feb. 10 above for an explanation of parliamentary government.)  While no one party won a majority in the parliament, the  rejection of Marin's government signaled the country's desire to move in a more conservative direction.   With the largest number of votes, the National Coalition Party (NCP) will seek to build a coalition of other like-minded parties to get the needed majority to form a government.  It is expected that NCP leader Petteri Orpo will replace Marin as Prime Minster. Orpo announced that he welcomes Finnish membership in NATO. 

(author's comment: So why does Finland matter?  As a member of NATO Finland is on the alliance's front line, sharing a common boundary with Russia.  That's a factor to be sure. However, the Finnish conservative politicians are much like conservative politicians everywhere. They are reluctant to fund massive public spending on matters and projects not benefitting their country's free enterprise and defense. The war in Ukraine is drawing billions of dollars (largely funded through public debt) of military and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine in a war that shows no sign of ending soon. Conservative political parties do not like spending billions when no immediate result is evident, especially when they see no immediate threat to their own country.  Spending fatigue is likely to spread within all of Ukraine's EU and NATO allies. The conservative victory in Finland may simply be a precursor of what's to come elsewhere among Ukraine's supporters. Putin knows this. All he need do is keep feeding his forces into the fight.  They do not have to win. They just have to wear down the enemy until the enemy gives up. It's called attrition. The US wars in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan were decades-long wars of attrition. Did the US win those wars?  Meanwhile, we can imagine that Putin's "buddy", China's Xi Jinping, is watching all of this with amused smugness, knowing that as Russian and Western  finances are being sucked into the Ukrainian void, the ultimate winner will be China.)

April 4 The British newspaper The Telegraph reported that Putin has sacked another high-ranking officer for battlefield set-backs in Ukraine. General Rustam Muradov was removed from his command following Russia's February failure to take the Ukrainian town Vuhledar. Vuhledar is a coal-mining town in Donetsk region of the Donbas.  The battle saw significant losses in manpower and armor as Muradov ordered his troops and tanks to advance across open terrain and known minefields. Some 130 tanks and other armored vehicles were destroyed in an advance that failed.  

(author's comment: History is always 20-20 in hindsight, right?  Business Insider's Website tells us that on April 4 former US President Bill Clinton expressed regret for his role in convincing former Ukrainian President Leonid Kravchuk to accept the 1994 Budapest Memorandum through which Ukraine would give up its nuclear weapons. We're reminded that when Ukraine declared its independence in 1991 from the then collapsing Soviet Union, it had the world's third largest nuclear arsenal. Subsequent negotiations in Budapest between Clinton and Kravchuk with Russian President Boris Yeltsin led to Ukraine's joining the international Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons in 1994. The Ukrainians systematically disarmed the weapons. Had Ukraine remained a nuclear power, Clinton surmised, the 2022 Russian invasion most likely would not have even been contemplated.) 

The night of April 4-5 saw 92 Russian air and rocket attacks against civilian targets across Ukraine. Considering the number of strikes, casualties were light with four dead and 16 wounded. 

April 5   Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made an unprecedented visit to Poland. Unprecedented because, unlike Zelenskyy's other foreign travels to date, this trip was announced, and it was the first time he was accompanied by Ukrainian First Lady, Olena Zelenska. Both had traveled abroad on other foreign visits, but on separate missions, not together. The purpose of their visit was primarily "to thank a country that has been an international cheerleader for Ukraine, as well as a safe haven for Ukrainian refugees and a transit hub for Ukraine-bound humanitarian aid and weapons." (quotation source: Associated Press)

In Warsaw Zelenskyy was warmly welcomed by President Andrzej Duda with the ceremonial pageantry characteristic of state visits and awarded Poland’s oldest and highest civilian distinction, The Order of the White Eagle.  Zelenskyy's meetings were primarily with Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. In their discussions they arrived at agreements providing Ukraine with additional weaponry, including tanks and aircraft, as well as aid for future infrastructure development once peace is achieved.  Zelenskyy also met with Ukrainian refugees who had fled to Poland in front of the Russian invasion in 2022. 

In Moscow on April 5 Putin presided at a ceremony accepting the diplomatic credentials from ambassadors of 17 countries, including those of US Ambassador Lynne Tracy.  In his public remarks, Putin stated that US-Russian relations are "in deep crisis".  Addressing Tracy directly, he said, "Dear Madam Ambassador, I know you may not agree, but I cannot but say that the United States' use ... of such tools as support for the so-called 'color revolutions', support in this regard for the coup in Kyiv in 2014, ultimately led to today's Ukrainian crisis ..."  (quotation source: Associated Press)

(Putin was making reference to the 2014 pro-democracy Euromaidan protests in Kyiv that led to the removal of pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych. In effect, Putin was saying that because the US was sympathetic to those who overthrew Yanukovych in the "coup" in 2014, Russia was compelled to invade and annex Crimea and then, seven years later, invade Ukraine in 2022 to save that country from the "Nazi" regime of Zelenskyy.  Therefore, all of this misfortune, he is saying, has been caused by the US.) 

April 5  At the United Nations Headquarters in New York City, representatives of the US, the UK (Britain), Albania, and Malta walked out of a meeting of the UN Security Council in silent protest to a televised speech being made by Russia’s Commissioner for Children’s Rights, Maria Lvova-Belova. Lvova-Belova's presentation justified the "evacuation" of Ukrainian children to Russia as a humanitarian action saving children from the horrors of war. She was included with Putin and others accused by the International Criminal Court of having committed crimes against humanity. (See Mar 17 above) 

Under the UN Charter, the presidency of the Security Council (UNSC) rotates monthly through those countries that are members of the body. The UNSC has five permanent members - US, Russia, China, France, and the United Kingdom - and ten temporary members, elected for two year-terms.  For April 2023 Russia holds the presidency, hence giving Russia control of the Council's agenda.  

Linda Thomas-Greenfield, US Ambassador to the UN, justified the walk-out.  “As Russia takes on the presidency of the Security Council, we will use every opportunity to push back on their using their perch in the chair to spread disinformation and to use their chair to push support of their efforts .... So, it’s for that reason today that we have opposed … a woman who has been charged with war crimes, who has been involved in deporting and removal of children from their homes to Russia.”  She added that the US and Britain had blocked webcasting the meeting so Lvova-Belova would not be given  “an international podium to spread disinformation and to try to defend her horrible actions.” 

Russia’s UN ambassador, Vassily Nebenzia, described the walk-out as “a clear demonstration of their indifference to the fate of the children of Donbas and Ukrainian children.” (quotations source: CNN News)

The Week Magazine, April 7, 2023 issue, reports that estimates range from 16,000 to 400,000 Ukrainian children have been transported to Russian "reeducation camps", some in Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine and others as far away as eastern Siberia. Some of the children have been held hostage for "resale" back to their families. Daria Herasymchuk, Ukraine's Commissioner for Children's Rights, said of the taken children, the Russians "change their citizenship, give them up for adoption under guardianship, commit sexual violence, and other crimes ... It's an act of genocide."  The United Nations 1948 definition of genocide reads "in addition to mass killings includes 'forcibly transferring children of the group to another group' and 'deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated its physical destruction in whole or part.'"  (author's comment: Readers are reminded that Russia, then the USSR, was among the founders of the UN and is a permanent member of the UN Security Council, a body pledged to the preservation of peace and human rights.)  The Week reported that Putin identifies the Russian "evacuation" and "reeducation" of Ukrainian children as the "Happy Childhood" program.  

The Associated Press reported that Ukraine estimates the number of children abducted as over 19,500.  

April 8  The Associated Press reported on  international efforts being made to reunite children their families in Ukraine. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has been in contact with Russia's Children's Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova. ICRC spokesman Jason Straziuso reported that reunification requires finding and establishing contact with family members in Ukraine and "obtaining relevant consents and documentation, reuniting families, and seeking to clarify the fate and whereabouts of those who remain missing. Families must first file a tracing request with details about the child with the Red Cross." 

"Lvova-Belova said that since February 2022, Russia has taken in more than 5 million Ukrainians, including 700,000 children — all with parents, relatives or legal guardians except for 2,000 from orphanages in the eastern Donbas....To date, she said, about 1,300 children have been returned to their orphanages, 400 were sent to Russian orphanages and 358 were placed in foster homes. She claimed no Ukrainian children have been adopted." (quotations source: Associated Press) 

The U.N. children’s agency UNICEF said it has also been in contact with Russian officials about the children, but spokesman Kurtis Cooper told The Associated Press that UNICEF “has not received feedback on our offer to facilitate reunifications processes." The Refugees International organization denied any contact with the Russians — despite Lvova-Belova's claim it had contacted her. 

                       -------------------------------------------------  Orphanages in Ukraine  -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Orphanages in Ukraine are referred to as internats. (Internat translates as "boarding" and commonly used to mean boarding schools.  However, internat in no way corresponds to our concept of a boarding school.)  Most internats are still functioning on inadequate state-run systems dating from the Soviet era.  Prior to the war, Ukraine had been working on internat reform. Recommendations for restructuring and closing internats, however, were politically controversial, stalling the reform process. There were 91,000 children in internats when the war began in 2022.

We think of orphans as children who have lost their families. Most children resident in internats, are from single-parent, poverty-stricken, or dysfunctional households whose families are unable to provide care for them. Many of children are disabled and medically dependent on services their families cannot afford. In many internats the care and support they need is poor or lacking. (Hence, the Russian “justification” that by taking the children, they are saving them from the horrors of war – and the horrors of Ukrainian internats.)  

Mona Fetouh (Buffalo Seminary, Class of 1990, working with UNICEF in Kyiv) reports that “UNICEF has been working to promote family-based alternative care for these children, and to support these families, including foster families, with cash and social services, while also working to shut down or transform the institutions. Sadly, there are entrenched political and financial interests in keeping them open, but on the bright side, there is support from the highest levels, including the President and First Lady, in de-institutionalization. It's also a requirement for Ukraine's plans for EU accession. Overall this work is a big area of focus for us as a critical child rights and well being issue. Hearteningly, many families have stepped up with willingness to be foster families so we are planning significant support to them. We use the phrase 'residential care institution' rather than orphanage generally". 

        ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

April 10   Meeting in Minsk with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko asked for assurances that Russia would defend Belarus in the event of an attack by NATO.  The Belarusian news agency Belta reported that Lukashenko requested that "in case of aggression against Belarus the Russian Federation protects Belarus as its own territory"...."We need such guarantees." Mykhailo Polodyak, a Ukrainian presidential advisor, labeled Lukashenko's remarks as "weird desires" that were akin to "an antelope asking for security guarantees in the crocodile's mouth." (quotations source: DPA - German Press Agency)  Readers are reminded that there are Russian troops and aircraft already stationed in Belarus, and that part of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine had been launched from Belarus.  

April 12-13 diplomatic representatives of Romania, Moldova, and Ukraine met in the Romanian capital Bucharest, confirming a tri-party agreement to bolster mutual support in seeking regional security and increasing trade and facilitation of energy transport.  In a reference to Finland's joining NATO, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dnypro Kubela (attending via video link) called the war “a bleeding wound in the middle of Europe” and said a security network for countries in the region that “feel threatened by the maniac [a reference to Putin] on the loose” must be sought. “It’s time to turn the Black Sea into what the Baltic Sea has become, a sea of NATO.”  (quotations source: Associated Press)  He also appealed for NATO to facilitate Ukraine's joining the alliance. 

(Author's comment:  NATO might consider but will not admit Ukraine to membership. Membership requires the approval of all 31 NATO nations, and Hungary and Turkey will certainly not approve, nor will the alliance's major powers, especially the US, Britain, France, and Germany.  Article 5 of the NATO Charter commits the entire alliance to defend a member attacked by a non-member state. A war on one is a war against all. That's the deterrence value of the alliance. NATO will certainly not admit a nation already at war as is Ukraine against Russia.)

 April 12   We have seen that the Western imposition of sanctions on the assets of Russian oligarchs has been a means of undermining financial support for Putin's war in Ukraine. (For an explanation of the oligarchs, see April 2022 above.) In April the US and Britain announced new sanctions on 134 Russian businesses and individuals, most operating in some 20 countries. Many of the targeted industries provide Russia with "critical technologies" essential to the war effort.  

In announcing the sanctions, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken cited two organizations supporting "the militarization and indoctrination of school children" (The All Russian Children’s and Youth Military Patriotic Public Movement Youth Army and the State Budgetary Educational Institution of Additional Education of the Republic of Crimea Crimea Patriot Center).  Sanctions were also imposed on three Russian executives of the International Investment Bank, a Russian-controlled financial institution centered in Budapest, Hungary. A Treasury Department statement said the bank “enables Russia to increase its intelligence presence in Europe, opens the door for the Kremlin’s malign influence activities in Central Europe and the Western Balkans, and could serve as a mechanism for corruption and illicit finance, including sanctions violations.” (quotations source: Associated press)  Readers are reminded that Hungary is a member of NATO and the EU. Sanctions on Russian businesses in Hungary risks further alienation of Hungary's pro-Russian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.  British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly  stated, “We are closing the net on the Russian elite and those who try to help them hide their money for war,".... “There’s no place to hide. We will keep cutting them off from assets they thought were successfully hidden."

April 16  The German news service Deutsche Welle reported on April 16 that Russia will issue electronic notices of military conscription in drafting men into its armed forces. Previously, draft notices were documents presented in person that had to be signed by the draftee at a recruitment office.  Under the new law, draftees are immediately eligible for service once their names appear on the government portal.   All male citizens between the ages of 18 and 27 are eligible for military conscription, although there are exemptions for university students and others in occupations seen essential to public well-being. It is anticipated that the new system will encourage men of draft eligibility to enlist voluntarily rather than be conscripted.  The Kremlin denies that the changes are in anticipation of a new massive mobilization for the war effort in Ukraine. Readers are remined that thousands of Russians fled the country when Putin announced the mobilization of some 300,000 "reservists" in September 2022. 

Slovakia announced that it would be joining Hungary and Poland in banning the importation of Ukrainian food products, especially wheat.  The bans are effective until June 30.  All three countries are EU members pledged to support for Ukraine, but relations are strained because their farmers are suffering lost income as the Ukrainian imports are less expensive on the domestic consumer market.  As agriculture is an essential of their economies, the loss of business through cheaper foods  from abroad could have political repercussions affecting their relations with Ukraine and their overall support for the war effort. Slovakia also claimed that examinations of imported foods show Ukrainian use of a pesticide banned by the EU. The European Commission (the EU's executive body) has expressed concern that the three countries are taking action independent of EU policies they agreed to support. When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the EU ended all tariffs on Ukrainian imports. Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland have, in effect, renewed those restrictions. 

April 18  Russian President Vladimir Putin made unannounced visits to military headquarters in the Russian occupied Kherson and Luhansk regions. Flying by helicopter, he met with field commanders in an effort to rally the morale of embattled troops. It is speculated that Russia expects a Ukrainian offensive later in the spring.  This was Putin' second visit to the region, having briefly visited Mariupol in March. 

The seeming battlefield stalemate in Bakhmut continues as do the occasional Russian rocket strikes against Ukrainian cities.   

The Foreign Ministers of the Group of Seven (G 7) met in Japan (April 16 -18) primarily to discuss matters of security relating to Russia and China. Nothing new came from the meeting. 

(Reminder: Founded in 1973, the G 7 is made up of seven of the world’s major economic powers and meets periodically to discuss economic and monetary concerns. Its members are the US, UK (Britain), France, Germany, Italy, Canada, and Japan. Russia belonged to the group from 1997 to 2014, temporarily making it the G 8.  However, Russia was expelled in 2014 when it invaded Ukraine and occupied and annexed the Crimea. Unlike the EU and NATO, the G 7 is not a formal organization and seeks consensus among its members in finding solutions to problems. China, Brazil, and India, all major economic powers, are not part of G 7, although membership for Brazil and India has been suggested. The G 7 members are all democracies, and that is certainly a factor in consideration of expanding membership.)

April 21   At a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Germany, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg again asserted the alliance's support for Ukraine "for as long as it takes". He had been in Kyiv the day before and had assured President Zelenskyy that Ukraine should be allowed to join NATO once the war ends.  In the meantime, Stoltenberg said, a "multiyear support initiative" will assist Ukraine make the transition from Soviet-era equipment and doctrines to NATO standards. Zelenskyy has been invited to attend the NATO summit meeting in Vilnius, Lithuania, in July. 

In quick response, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova warned of Stoltenberg's "dangerous statements."  "NATO sets itself the goal of 'defeating' Russia in Ukraine", she said, "and to motivate Kyiv, it promises that after the end of the conflict, the country can be accepted into the alliance." What NATO is promising is "short-sighted and downright dangerous. This can lead to the final collapse of the European security system." (quotations sources: NBC News, CNN)  Readers are reminded that Russia launched its war in part to keep Ukraine from joining NATO. 

The war continues.  On April 20 Russia launched 12 Iranian-made Shahed drones against targets in Kyiv. Ukrainian air defense using NASAM (National Advanced Surface to Air) missiles, shot down eight. Other drone attacks were launched at civilian and critical targets in the Poltava and Vinnytsia regions.  Ukraine reported a Russian advance in a section of the Bakhmut battlefront and renewed fighting near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.  

Led by the Admiral Vladimirsky, Russian "research" and "fishing" vessels are actively undertaking surveillance and mapping of Dutch, British, Danish, Swedish, Finnish, and Norwegian wind turbine farms and gas and oil rigs in the Baltic and North Seas.  Russian sabotage of these resources could be economically devastating. 

April 23  Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, threatened termination of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) should the G 7 impose a ban on exports to Russia. The present term of the BSGI is to set expire on May 18.  Chaired by Putin, the Russian Security Council is an advisory body composed of top state officials and heads of defense and security agencies.  It serves as a forum for coordinating and integrating national security policy, much as does the National Security Council in the US. 

(Author's comment: Since the BSGI was mentioned above, it should by now be well obvious to readers of this chapter that the war between Russia and Ukraine is much more than just a regional conflict. With the attention and involvement of the United Nations, European Union, NATO, ASEAN, OPEC, the G 7, the G 20, and other regional groupings of nations as well as the interlocking relationships of international commerce, finance, and technology, the war has far-reaching global implications and consequence.  The BSGI is the UN-brokered agreement that enables Ukrainian grain shipments to pass through the Russian naval blockade of Ukrainian ports. Because of that agreement, food supplies are able to reach famine-stricken regions of Africa. But ... the BSGI is dependent upon periodic renewals to continue. That means that Russia has to agree to allow those continued shipments.  If Russia does not, the consequence could be widespread starvation in populations otherwise unaffected by the war.) 

April 24  At a meeting of the UN Security Council (UNSC) in New York, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, presided over a session titled “Maintenance of International Peace and Security.”  (Why was the Russian Foreign Minister presiding over a UNSC  meeting? See April 5 above.)  

In reporting the event, CNN stated that Lavrov "launched into a tirade of unsubstantiated accusations against Ukraine and its western allies, blaming the conflict on them." .... 

“As was the case during the Cold War, we have reached the dangerous, possibly even more dangerous threshold,” Lavrov said, accusing the “United States and its allies” of “abandoning diplomacy and demanding clarification of relations on the battlefield.”

Lavrov repeatedly described the Ukrainian government as “the putchists” * and “the Nazi Kyiv regime,” a baseless claim that Russia has repeatedly made to justify its illegal invasion of the country. Lavrov also criticized Western countries for not recognizing the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea as Russian territory, despite “a referendum being held there.”  

(* Putsch is a German word for a coup d’état, the forceful overthrow of a government. The word has Nazi  implications, being in reference to Hitler's 1923 attempt to overthrow the German government. See  chapter 22, part 1.) 

Opening the session, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, stating it is "in violation of the United Nations Charter and international law, is causing massive suffering and devastation to the country and its people and adding to the global economic dislocation triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic.” 

The American UN Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield was direct in her response.  “Our hypocritical convener today, Russia, invaded its neighbor, Ukraine, and struck at the heart of the UN Charter. This illegal, unprovoked and unnecessary war runs directly counter to our most shared principles – that a war of aggression and territorial conquest is never, ever acceptable" .... “As we sit here, that aggression continues. As we sit here, Russian forces continue to kill and injure civilians. As we sit here, Russian forces are destroying Ukraine’s critical infrastructure. As we sit here we brace ourselves for the next Bucha, the next Mariupol, the next Kherson, the next war crime, the next atrocity." 

The European Union countries issued a joint statement before the meeting, condemning Russia’s actions in Ukraine and criticizing Lavrov’s appearance at the meeting.

“Russia is trying to portray itself as a defender of the UN charter and multilateralism. Nothing can be further from the truth. It’s cynical,” said Olaf Skoog, European Union representative to the UN. “We all know that while Russia is destroying, we are building. While they violate, we protect.”  (quotations source: CNN - Cable News Network)

Lavrov's UN appearance came amidst another diplomatic matter exacerbating the strains on US-Russian relations.  On April 22, Russia expelled some 20 German diplomats, a response to Germany's allegations that Russian diplomats in Germany were engaged in espionage. The US on April 23 denied visas to Russian journalists seeking to cover Lavrov's UN trip.  Angered, Lavrov lashed out.  “A country that calls itself the strongest, smartest, free and fair country has chickened out and done something stupid by showing what its sworn assurances about protecting freedom of speech and access to information are really worth”.... “Be sure that we will not forget and will not forgive.” (quotation source, San Diego Union Tribune)

April 26  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that he had a "long and meaningful" telephone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Zelenskyy  stated that "I believe that this call, as well as the appointment of Ukraine's ambassador to China, will give a powerful impetus to the development of our bilateral relations."  The Chinese state media reported that China would send special representatives to Ukraine to  "hold talks with all parties seeking peace."  (quotations source: Reuters)  Readers are reminded that in February China presented a 12-point plan for peace, parts of which were unacceptable to both Ukraine and Russia.  Still, Zelenskyy welcomes contact with Xi.  

Ukraine's relations with China were also recently strained when China's ambassador to France, publicly suggested that the former Soviet republics had no legal claim to sovereignty.  In other words, Ukraine and the other 13 former Soviet states still legitimately belonged to Russia. China immediately walked back the ambassador's comments by affirming its recognition that those countries were indeed independent, sovereign states. 

April 27/28  Russia launched another wave of missile and drone attacks against civilian targets in Kyiv and other locations across Ukraine. Ukrainian air defense claimed that most of the incoming missiles and drones were destroyed before striking, but those that got through killed and wounded civilians in the cities of Mikolayev, Dnipro, and Uman.  In Uman at least 23 were killed, among them children, when rockets struck an apartment complex.   

April 29 Russian authorities in Crimea reported a Ukrainian-launched drone attack struck an oil depot in Sebastopol. Russia claimed its defense forces  intercepted and destroyed two of the four drones in the attack.  As home port for Russia's Black Sea naval operations, Sebastopol is of strategic importance in Russia's war in Ukraine.  Ukraine did not admit or deny responsibility for the attack, identifying it as “God's punishment” for “the murdered civilians in Uman, including five children.” (quotation source: Associated Press)  Russia also reported that several villages near Belogrod were hit by rockets allegedly fired from Ukraine.  Belogrod was also the site of a major center city explosion, resulting from a Russian air force SU-34 fighter-bomber "accidentally" dropping a bomb over the city at 10:15 PM, April 20.  Two civilians were injured in the explosion, and nearby buildings were damaged.  A second bomb from the same aircraft was discovered two days later. This bomb had not detonated, and its removal required evacuation of over 3000 from the area while the bomb was excavated and removed. There was no report from Russian authorities that the plane was experiencing flight difficulties. Western experts on Russian aircraft saw it unusual that the bombs had been set to explode on hitting the ground. Were a plane having flight problems, Russian pilots were trained to drop their bombs over unpopulated areas. Russia has not announced the cause of the "accident" other than a mistake.

April 29  A dispute over an embassy school in Warsaw had Russia's former President Dmitry Medvedev calling for Russia to break diplomatic relations with Poland. Poland claimed that the school for children of Russia's embassy staff is being used for espionage operations and has ordered it vacated and equipment in it seized. Medvedev, currently Deputy Chairman of Russia's Security Council (See April 23 above.), wrote on Twitter that he saw "no point in maintaining diplomatic relations with Poland" in which "there is no one but Russophobes in power." He added that Ukraine "is full of Polish mercenaries, who should be ruthlessly exterminated like stinky rats." (quotation source, Newsweek)  (author's comment:  "Stinky rats"? Such eloquence! Medvedev once held Russia's highest office - 2008-2012, at Putin's pleasure - and has now become no more than a Putin toady and mouthpiece.  It would be unusual for Putin publicly to call Poles "stinky rats", but he can do so through Medvedev.)  Poland is an active supporter of Ukraine, providing arms and other logistical assistance. 

Embassies, consulates, and other diplomatically recognized properties are considered by the host country as property of the country they represent. Some host countries may recognize the property as holding extraterritorial status, recognizing it as being an actual part of the country represented. All diplomatic personnel hold some degree of immunity status, meaning they are not fully subject to the laws of the host country. Authorities of the host countries may not enter those properties without permission. The seizure of the Russian embassy school in Warsaw is seen by Russia as a violation of the Vienna Convention. 

May 3 Russian news media reported a nighttime drone strike on the Kremlin in Moscow. Two drones, allegedly Ukrainian, were shot down over the Kremlin, one causing a fire that was quickly extinguished.  One drone fell on the building housing  the Russian Senate and presidential offices.  The Russian presidential press service called the attack a “planned terrorist act and an attempt on the life” of President Putin. In a statement, a Ukrainian presidential adviser, Mykhailo Podolyak, strongly denied responsibility for the explosions, saying that Ukraine does “not attack targets on the territory of the Russian Federation.”  There was speculation that the attack was a "false flag" operation conducted by Russia. (quotations source: NY Times)

May 3  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy traveled to Helsinki, Finland, to attend the Nordic Summit. Meeting with the leaders of Finland, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, and Iceland, Zelenskyy appealed for their continued support for Ukraine's war effort and bids to join the European Union and NATO. On May 4 Zelenskyy was in the Netherlands for a meeting with the Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and members of the Dutch parliament. He also visited The Hague, headquarters of the International Criminal Court (ICC) and called for the creation of a special tribunal to try Putin. (The ICC on March 17 issued a warrant for the arrest of Putin and is described above. See April 26, 2022.) 

May 6 Ukraine reported the downing of a Russian hypersonic Kinzhal ("Dagger") missile over Kyiv.  The missile was intercepted by a US-supplied Patriot anti-missile battery. It was the first use of the Patriot defense system in Ukraine. Patriots are very technically complex in operational targeting and require extensive training in their use. Ukrainian military personnel went to the US to learn how to fire and guide them.  The Kinzhal can fly at up to ten times the speed of sound, so shooting one down is not easy.  

May 8 Russia launched a massive nighttime drone attack against Kyiv and other cities across Ukraine. Ukrainian air defense shot down 30 drones over Kyiv.  Five persons were injured by falling wreckage over the four-hour duration of the attack. Earlier drone strikes had been launched against Kharkiv, Kherson, Mykolaiv and Odesa. The Odesa attack damaged a Red Cross warehouse where humanitarian supplies were being stored.  

May 9 - In Moscow, Putin presided in reviewing the annual Victory Day military parade through Red Square. Victory Day celebrates the 1945 Allied victory over Nazi Germany. Usually a massive display of Russian military manpower and weaponry, this year's parade was much more toned down. Instead of parading tanks and mobile rocket launchers, there was only one tank, a World War Two vintage T-34. There was no aerial overpass of Russian air forces.  Missing on the reviewing stand were representatives of Russia's World War Two allies, the US, Britain, and France.  Parades were also canceled in 24 other Russian cities. 

In his remarks, Putin justified Russia's war in Ukraine.  Blaming the West for provoking the war, he said “A true war has been unleashed against our motherland .... We have repelled international terrorism and to fit we will defend the residents of Donbas and secure our own safety. Russia has no unfriendly nations in the West or in the East.” He also drew comparisons between the conflict in Ukraine and the fight against Germany, saying that civilization is once again at a turning point. Throughout his speech, he praised Russian troops fighting in the “special military operation” in Ukraine. “There is no more important thing now than your combat work." (quotations source: ABC News)

With Russia celebrating Victory Day on May 9, President Zelenskyy announced that in Ukraine May 9 would henceforth called Europe Day.  Ukraine's commemoration of the end of World War Two would be May 8, the date when the US and the Western Allies mark the victory over Hitler's Germany.  He also compared the current war with Russia to the Allied efforts to defeat the Nazis. “We will not allow lies as if the victory in that war could have taken place without the participation of any country or nation. As then we destroyed evil together, so now we are destroying a similar evil together," ... "Unfortunately, evil has returned. Although now it is another aggressor, the goal is the same -- enslavement or destruction. And just as then we relied on the joint strength of free nations, so now we fight against evil together with the free world, together with free Europe. And we will prevail! It will be the Day of our victory."  (Readers are reminded that in 1945 Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union and was a major battleground of the war.) (quotations source ---author's comment: I was distracted and did not get the source  at the time and could not find it in subsequent source searches. Trust me. It was from a valid  news source. ----)

May 9  European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen arrived in Kyiv to hold talks with President Zelenskyy and other officials regarding Ukraine's bid to join the European Union.  EU membership is complex and lengthy, years long in most cases.  She will also discuss ways in which the EU will continue to sanction Russia and provide Ukraine with financial assistance, pledging some 2 billion euros ($2.2 billion) for artillery ammunition. 

We're reminded of the global implications of the war when, on May 11, the US Ambassador to South Africa publicly questioned South Africa's "neutrality" regarding a secret shipment of weapons to Russia. The weapons were loaded on a Russian freighter in early December (2022).  South African President Cyril Ramaphosa neither confirmed nor denied  the accusation, saying "it is being looked into." (quotation source: USA Today)

May 13  The Russian Ministry of Defense announced the "repositioning" of units of the Russian army in Bakhmut to “more advantageous defensive positions”.  Yevgeniy Prigozhin, the head of the Russian mercenary force known as the Wagner Group, called the withdrawal “a flight, not a regrouping.” The Wagner Group had been fighting alongside regular troops since the siege of Bakhmut began. Prigozhin often complained that Putin purposely denied Wagner the ammunition necessary for effective combat and threatened to withdraw his forces altogether. Claiming the Russians were abandoning their positions, Prigozhin acknowledged Ukraine was making some “successful counterattacks.” (The Wagner Group is identified above. See July 29, 2022.) (quotations source: BBC News)

USA Today reported on May 13 that "Russia has ramped up recruitment of prisoners to fight in Ukraine and signed on an estimated 10,000 convicts in April 2023 alone. Since last summer, prisoners were the key pool of recruits for Russia's private Wagner Group mercenary team. But Wagner 'likely lost access to the Russian penal system' in February when its leader went public with his feud over ammunition supplies and other disputes with the Russian military."  (USA Today)

Britain announced on May 13 that it will supply Ukraine with air-launched Storm Shadow cruise missiles. The missiles have a 155-mile range.  Once launched, the missile drops to low altitude to avoid detection by enemy radar, before latching onto its target with an infra-red seeker.  By contrast, the US-supplied Himars missiles used by Ukraine have a range of around 50 miles.

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy traveled to Rome for a brief visit, meeting with President Sergio Mattarella and Premier Giorgia Meloni.  Both leaders support continuing Italy's military and humanitarian aid for Ukraine.  Zelenskyy also met with Pope Francis at the Vatican.  The relationship between Ukraine and the Vatican has been somewhat rocky.  Pope Francis claims the Vatican has been working on a peace plan, but what's in it he will not reveal until it's ready for public notification. In August 2022 the Ukrainian ambassador to the Vatican publicly criticized the Pope when Francis referred to Russian car bomb victim Daria Dugina as an "innocent" victim of war. (See August 20, 2022 above.) In his meeting with Francis, Zelenskyy insisted that a future peace must be based on the 10-point plan he presented at the G 20 meeting in Nov. 2022.

(Reminder: Zelenskyy's 10-point plan for peace. The points reflect a broad sweep of conceptual matters to be resolved.  Very simply, they are radiation and nuclear safety, food security, energy security, release of prisoners and deportees, implementation of the UN Charter, withdrawal of Russian troops and cessation of hostilities, justice, ecocide and the protection of the environment, prevention of escalation, and confirmation of the end of the war.) 

Zelenskyy then traveled from Rome to Berlin  where, on May 14, he met with the German leadership.  In a press conference with Chancellor Olaf Scholz, he thanked Germany for its financial and military support.  On May 13 Germany had announced a 2.7 billion euro ($3 billion) a new package of military, including tanks, anti-aircraft systems, and ammunition.  The anti-air defense component are radar guided IRIS-T SLM surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) with a 25-mile range.  Zelenskyy also said that Ukraine is preparing a counteroffensive to free those Ukrainian regions occupied by Russia, not to attack Russia itself. "We have neither the time nor the strength (to attack Russia)," he said, according to an official interpreter. "And we also don't have weapons to spare, with which we could do this" .... "We are preparing a counterattack for the illegally occupied areas based on our constitutionally defined legitimate borders, which are recognized internationally". (quotation source: NPR News)  Accompanied by Scholz, Zelenskyy then flew to the German city of Aachen where he was awarded the 2023 Charlemagne Prize.  

What's the Charlemagne Prize?  Established in 1950 and named for the 9th century German emperor Charlemagne, the prize annually celebrates services to European unification.  Charlemagne, as King of the Franks,  historically united much of Western Europe under a single crown. He was coronated emperor at Aachen in 800 AD. The Prize is "not only an expression of gratitude for lasting services for the unity of Europe, but also an encouragement and an expression of hopes and expectations directed towards the future. 'the Charlemagne Prize reaches into the future, and at the same time it embodies an obligation – an obligation of the highest ethical value. It is directed at a voluntary union of the European peoples without constraint, so that in their newfound strength they may defend the highest earthly goods – freedom, humanity and peace – and safeguard the future of their children and children's children.' " (quotation source: Wikipedia)

Moving on, the peripatetic Ukrainian President flew to Paris and met with French President Emmanuel Macron.  Macron's assurances of continued French military assistance included the equipping of several Ukrainian battalions with armored vehicles and light tanks.   Zelenskyy then flew to London where on May 15 he was hosted by British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak at Chequers, the PM's official country residence.  Sunak renewed Britain's commitment to Ukraine's defense, promising future deliveries of air defense missiles and long-range attack drones.  This comes on the background of recent British deliveries of cruise missiles with ranges up to 186 miles.  Prior to his London visit, Zelenskyy made a pre-recorded speech to the annual Copenhagen Democracy Summit meeting in Denmark. The summit addresses issues affecting the exercise of and threats to democracy in both democratic and authoritarian systems. 

China announced on May 15 that it will send a special envoy to meet with the governments of Ukraine, Russia, and several other European countries in an effort to  discuss a political settlement to the war.  The envoy is Li Hui, a former ambassador to Russia.

May 16 Russia launched an intensive missile and drone attack against targets in Kyiv.  The 18 missiles, including some hypersonic, were all intercepted and shot down by the city's air defense.  Damage on the ground was caused by falling debris, injuring at least three civilians. Ukraine's defense ministry speculates that the missile attacks may no longer targeting energy infrastructure but air defense systems.  Missile debris fell on the Kyiv zoo, but no animals were reported injured. The zoo opened at its usual 10:00 am starting time.

May 17 Russia announced that it would agree to another two-month extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) that allows the passage of Ukrainian shipments of grain and fertilizers through the Russian naval blockade of Ukraine's Black Sea ports. The BSGI, a UN and Turkey brokered agreement was accepted by Ukraine and Russia in July 2022. (See July 22, 2022 above.)

May 18-20 The G 7 Summit Meeting, Hiroshima, Japan   

What is the G 7?  Founded in 1973, the G 7 is made up of seven of the world’s major economic powers and meets periodically to discuss economic and monetary concerns. Its members are the US, UK (Britain), France, Germany, Italy, Canada, and Japan. Russia belonged to the group from 1997 to 2014, temporarily making it the G 8.  However, Russia was expelled in 2014 when it invaded Ukraine and occupied and annexed the Crimea. Unlike the EU or NATO, the G 7 is not a formal organization and seeks consensus among its members in finding solutions to problems. China, Brazil, and India, all major economic powers, are not part of G 7, although membership for Brazil and India has been suggested. G 7 members are all democracies, and that is certainly a factor in consideration of expanding membership.)  Representatives of other countries may also be invited to attend. At the Hiroshima meeting countries from the SE Asian and Australasian regions were in attendance and met with G 7 leaders  discussing matters of economic development and the growing influence and threat of China. India's Prime Minister Narenda Modi was also at the  conference. 

Readers are reminded that in August 1945 Hiroshima was destroyed by an atomic bomb dropped on the city by an American B-29 bomber, an event that hastened the end of World War II. Hiroshima is Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s hometown, and he chose the city to emphasize the need for the summit to address the issues of nuclear disarmament and and non-proliferation.  This is especially critical as Russia has stepped up its rhetoric threatening use of nuclear weapons in the war with Ukraine.  President Biden traveled to Hiroshima but had to cancel additional visits to Australia and Papua New Guinea, as he needed to return to the US to deal with the Congressional impasse over raising the US national debt ceiling . (He did, however, meet with the prime ministers of both countries during the conference.) 

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also flew to Japan to appeal to the G 7 membership for its continued and increased military and financial assistance.  Zelenskyy's day-long visit was not announced prior to the summit. He was reassured that the G 7 will support Ukraine. Biden promised Kiev further military aid worth $375 million for ammunition, artillery, and armored vehicles. (Since the war began in Feb. 2022 the US has provided some $37 billion in military assistance for Ukraine.) 

In addition Biden announced the US would permit other allied countries to supply US-made F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. Ukraine has been pleading for F-16s practically since the war began. None would come from the US. The aircraft are currently part of the air forces of Britain, France, Belgium, Denmark, and Portugal (the "fighter jet coalition"). US-made military aircraft in the air forces of other countries cannot be given or sold to a third county without US permission.  Ukrainian pilots would be trained to fly the jets but when, by whom, and how many will be delivered to Ukraine would be decided by the US in consultation with its allies. This policy marks a significant change in US policy since Biden has flatly denied Ukraine's previous appeals for F-16s. At the end of the three-day summit, Biden noted that Zelenskyy had assured him the aircraft would not be used beyond Ukrainian air space. 

 Russia's response was predictable.  As reported by the Russian news agency TASS, Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko stated, "We see that Western countries are still adhering to the escalation scenario" ...."This scenario involves colossal risks for themselves." (quotation source: TASS via NBC News) 

The G 7 also directed its attention to China.  British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak described China as "the greatest challenge of our time to global security and prosperity."   In its summit ending declaration the G 7 nations agreed to reduce their economic dependence on China and reduce "risks" in their supply chains. They also condemned China's claims to regional hegemony in Southeast Asia and warned China against taking any military action against Taiwan. 

China's response was likewise predictable, in effect: no one tells China what it can and cannot do.

(author's comment:  And as for Prime Minister Kishida's hopes for future nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation? The summit's lengthy statement called for both, but offered no substantive means of doing so. Without Russia and China and other nuclear states and nuclear wannabes, such as Iran,  committing themselves to international discussions and taking specific actions to achieve such goals, it all remains, in Kishida's words, "a dream.") 

The fall of Bakhmut    On May 20 the Russian mercenary Wagner Group claimed that its forces had finally taken the city, now in ruins. Ukraine, initially insisted that its forces were still fighting, but on May 22, a deputy Ukrainian defense minister acknowledged that the city was lost.  Earlier at the Hiroshima G 7 summit, Ukrainian President  Zelenskyy implied that the situation in Bakhmut was not good.  "It’s a pity, it’s tragedy but today Bakhmut is only in our hearts" ...."There is nothing in this place. Just drones and a lot of dead Russians. But they came to us. So our defenders in Bakhmut, they did strong work. And of course, we appreciate them for their great job." (quotation source: Fox News) 

Bakhmut, once a prosperous city of 70,000 people, had been reduced to rubble, its infrastructure destroyed. Most of its citizens fled during the months-long siege and only a few thousand remain.  Neither Russia nor Ukraine announced battlefield losses, but it has been estimated that Russia suffered some 100,000 killed and  wounded. The Wagner Group announced the loss of 20,000 of its troops. Ukraine did not reveal its casualties but estimates number in the thousands.  

The significance of Bakhmut?  It may prove a Pyrrhic victory for Russia.  The New York Times (May 26) saw Russian manpower and logistical losses as such that a renewed offensive in the Donbas region could prove difficult.  Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder and head of the Wagner Group, announced on May 25 that his troops were withdrawing from Bakhmut, to be replaced by units of the regular Russian army.  The relationship between Prigozhin and Putin has been at times strained and contentious. Without Wagner support, Russian occupation of the city may be vulnerable to counterattacks from Ukrainian forces.   

May 22 and 23 Russia boasted it had repelled a Ukrainian "invasion" of its territory near Belgorod. There had been a two-day incursion, but not by Ukraine. The "invaders" were from two Russian rebel paramilitary groups known as the Freedom of Russia Legion and the Russian Volunteer Corps. Both groups are Russian in personnel and anti-Putin in purpose.  Both are allied with and based in Ukraine. Their raid was intended to sabotage Russian military and communication sites in the Belograd province. Russia reported it had killed 70 of the invaders, calling them "Ukrainian nationalists".  The Russian rebels claim that only two of their personnel were killed. 

May 25 Russia and Belarus confirmed that Russia is sending tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus as was announced on March 25. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu met with his Belarusian counterpart in Minsk to sign the documents ordering the shipments.  Remarking on the agreement, Shoigu said, "The collective West is essentially waging an undeclared war against our countries" and doing all it could "to prolong and escalate the armed conflict in Ukraine." (quotation source: Reuters) This agreement has proved of great concern. (See Mar. 25 above.) 

May 28 In what has been the largest drone attack to date, Russia launched 59 Iranian-made Shahed drones against Kyiv.  Ukrainian air defense claimed to have destroyed 58 the aircraft. One civilian was reported killed and several others injured.  Drones also struck a medical center in the city of Dnipro, killing two.  These attacks were followed on May 29 by another nighttime wave of some 31 Russian drones against Kyiv and other cities across the country.  All were intercepted and destroyed, although several civilians were killed by falling debris.

May 30 Russia reported an overnight drone attack on a Moscow residential area. “The Kyiv regime staged a terrorist attack with unmanned aerial vehicles on sites in the city of Moscow this morning,” the Defense Ministry said in statement. “Eight plane-type drones were used in the attack. All enemy drones were shot down.”  Other reports stated 25 drones were in the attack.  There was damage to several residential high rise buildings in one of Moscow's more prestigious sections.  Russian lawmaker Maxim Ivanov called it the most serious assault on Moscow since Nazi Germany's invasion in World War Two, saying no Russian could now avoid "the new reality."  (quotations source: Reuters)

 June 5  The New York Times reported that the Russian border town of Shebekino had been repeatedly struck by rockets allegedly fired from Ukraine.  Shebekino is in the Belogrod region on Ukraine's northeastern border.  The attacks were believed to be by anti-Putin Russian militias (see May 22-23 above), based in Ukraine.  In what the Times called the "largest military evacuation effort in Russia in decades," thousands of civilians have fled Shebekino, reducing it to a ghost town. A woman refugee bemoaned her city's fate. "Shebekino was a wonderful, flowery town ... with happy, neighborly people ... Now only pain, death and misery live in our town. There is no power, no public transport, no open businesses, no residents. Just an empty shattered town in smoke."  Apparently, the attacks on Shebekino and other towns in the Belogrod area had been going on for quite a while, with little response from local officials and the Kremlin. The recent drone attacks on Moscow, said one Shebekino resident, "were immediately big stories; it was all over the news. And here, people have been under fire for months, and nothing."  (quotations source: New York Times)  

June 6  In what Ukraine accuses as an unprecedented attack on civilian infrastructure, Russian forces allegedly blew up a major hydroelectric dam on the Dnipro River.  Located in the Kherson Province, the Nova Kakhovka Power Plant provided electricity for much of southeastern Ukraine. Its destruction caused major downstream flooding, threatening both Russian-held territory and Ukrainian lands along the river. Major evacuations were ordered for communities in the downstream flood plains.  The flooding threatened both the quality of drinking water and farmlands.  On international markets the price of Ukrainian grain crops increased in anticipation of flood-caused shortages.   There was also concern that the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, upstream from the dam, might lose water necessary for cooling the plant's reactors.   Russia denied responsibility for the attack and accused Ukraine, which likewise denied responsibility.  

Over the North Sea Russian bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons flew alarmingly close to the Scottish coast.  The flights coincided with Russian naval exercises taking place in the Baltic.  Units of NATO naval forces, with leadership from the US, were also holding exercises in the Baltic.  It was the first time Finland, as a NATO member, participated in joint military operations.  While not a member of NATO, Sweden has been a past participant in its naval operations and is part of the NATO fleet.  In the Far East, Russia was also conducting naval exercises in the seas of Japan and Okhotsk. (Such military readiness activities are commonly referred to as "war games.")  

For months there had been speculation that Ukraine would launch a major counteroffensive against Russian forces in the Donbas.  The government in Kyiv neither denied nor confirmed that such a counteroffensive was in the immediate offing, but as of June 8, it was clear that fighting had renewed in the Bakhmut and Zaporizhzhya areas. 

June 13  The spate of Russian rocket attacks on civilian targets continued with a deadly strike in Kryvyi Rih, President Zelenskyy's hometown. Reported casualties numbered 12 dead and 28 injured.  Ukrainian air defense reported that missiles and drones aimed at Kyiv and Kharkiv were intercepted and destroyed. On the battlefront in the Zaporizhzhia region, Russia reported the capture and/or destruction of German-made Leopard tanks and US-made Bradley fighting vehicles abandoned by retreating Ukrainian forces.  Russian media reported the alleged captures as "our trophies".  

Moscow reported the loss of General Sergei Goryachev, one of its top battlefield commanders. A veteran of Russia's military ventures in Chechnya and Transdniestria, Goryachev was killed on June 12 in a Ukrainian missile strike behind the front lines in Zaporizhzhya. His death makes him the 10th Russian general killed in the war. 

June 14  Russian cruise missiles, targeting a residential and commercial area in the port city of Odesa, reportedly killed three and injured 13. Other overnight Russian missile attacks caused damage and casualties in two towns in Donetsk The missiles were believed launched from either Russian ships or aircraft in the Black Sea.  

Speaking of the Black Sea, five vessels carrying 188,000 tons of Ukrainian corn, soybeans, and sunflower meal departed for ports in Europe and China. In Moscow Russian President Putin made remarks to the effect that Russia is considering withdrawing from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, given that the sea lanes used by the grain ships are also being used by Ukraine's allies to ship armaments.  A Kremlin spokesman stated, “Russia has repeatedly made such gestures of goodwill [by extending participation in the deal], showing a very responsible approach, but, unfortunately, in the absence of reciprocity and the absence of the desire of the collective West to fulfill part of the agreements regarding Russia, of course, this manifestation of goodwill and political will cannot be endless.” (quotation source: the Russian news agency Interfax)

June 19  Ukrainian authorities affirmed modest territorial gains on battlefronts in the Kherson and Donbas regions, but the fighting has taken its toll on supplies of armaments and ammunition. There are concerns that existing stockpiles of Western-supplied weapons might not be enough to sustain meaningful advances. 

June 21  The European Union announced a new wave of sanctions affecting European trade with Russia.  Sanctions are punitive policies intended to restrict commerce, finance, and named individuals from engaging in business with Russia.  European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the new package will “deal a further blow to Putin’s war machine with tightened export restrictions, targeting entities supporting the Kremlin.” It also prohibits the transit via Russia of products and technologies which might help boost its defense and security sector. The sanctions enable implementation of measures restricting the sale, or export of sensitive dual-use goods and technology to third countries that could then transfer them to Russia. Under the new rules, the EU could exert much more pressure to end the practice than before. (quotation source: Associated Press) The new sanctions also prohibit EU importation of Russian crude oil and other petroleum products on ships of third countries to which those cargoes have been transferred.  It's certain that this new round of sanctions is not acceptable to all EU members, some still very much dependent on Russian oil and energy imports.  Hungary imports electricity from Rosatom, Russia's state-controlled nuclear energy company, and has made it clear that that it will continue to do so.

June 23  The Associated Press reported that Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Russian mercenary Wagner Group, released a May 5 video showing him standing in front of bodies of his slain troops near Bakhmut yelling expletive-riddled insults at the Russian high command.  He blamed them for not providing his forces with adequate supplies of ammunition. “They came here as volunteers and they died to let you lounge in your red wood offices,” Prigozhin shouted. “You are sitting in your expensive clubs, your children are enjoying good living and filming videos on YouTube. Those who don’t give us ammunition will be eaten alive in hell!” (quotation source: Associated Press).  Prigozhin directed his ire at Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and the chief of the General Staff General Valery Gerasimov, calling them weak, incompetent, and treacherous and blaming them for concocting the lies upon which Putin justified the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. While not naming Putin directly, Prigozhin implied that he was complicit in the military's failure to supply the Wagner Group. The relationship between Prigozhin and the Russian President has become increasingly uneasy and contentious.  Putin has not responded publicly to Prigozhin's May 5th tirade. 

Later, Prigozhin claimed that Russian rockets struck a Wagner Group camp, killing and wounding many.  He did not reveal the time and location of the attack but presented a video seeming to show rocket-related destruction of a military  encampment. In a statement shared to social media, Prigozhin openly called for taking up arms against Russia's defense ministry, saying that those who were responsible for the death of the Wagner mercenaries and Russian soldiers should be "punished."  The "PMC (Private Military Company) Wagner Commanders' Council made a decision: the evil brought by the military leadership (Shoigu and Gerasimov) of the country must be stopped," "They neglect the lives of soldiers. They forgot the word 'justice', and we will bring it back." (quotation source: Insider.)  In Moscow the Russian Federal Security Services announced that Prigozhin would be investigated on charges of fomenting an armed rebellion and called for Wagner forces to arrest their leader.  Security was tightened in Moscow and in Rostov-on-Don, the military headquarters of the southern region from which Russia directs the war in Ukraine.  Prigozhin claimed that his forces reached and occupied Rostov without resistance.  "... we will destroy anyone who stands in our way," Prigozhin said, "We are moving forward and will go until the end."  (quotations source: Associated Press)

June 24  The end came earlier than Prigozhin may have anticipated.  In a televised address, Putin called Prigozhin's actions treason, "a stab in the back" caused by "excessive ambitions and vested interests .... It is a blow to Russia, to our people. And our actions to defend the Fatherland against such a threat will be harsh .... All those who deliberately stepped on the path of betrayal, who prepared an armed insurrection, who took the path of blackmail and terrorist methods, will suffer inevitable punishment, will answer both to the law and to our people."  (quotations source, Reuters)  It was on this background that units of Prigozhin's army pushed north in what he said was a march on Moscow to rid the country of those who had long misled Putin in the war.  His troops were convoyed up highway M-4, the main road north to Moscow.  Russian resistance to the advance was relatively weak. Putin's plane was reported as having departed Moscow and flying to the northeast, giving rise to the rumor that he was fleeing the city,  Kremlin spokes personnel insisted that the Russian President was still in his Kremlin office.  The Wagner troops were within 124 miles of Moscow, when it all came to an end.  Word came that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko had brokered an arrangement, approved by Putin, whereby Progozhin would end his march on Moscow and leave Russia to reside in Belarus.  Prigozhin, stating that he did not want to see Russians killing Russians, ordered his forces to return to their camps.  Putin promised amnesty to the Wagner Group's soldiers.  (author's comment: It is doubtful Putin will indeed honor any promises of amnesty. Prigozhin tried to overthrow his government by armed force.  It is certain that Prigozhin will be hunted down, arrested, and killed.  Lukashenko is not strong enough to resist any pressure from Russia to prevent that.  There is also widespread media comment that Putin's power has been undermined by his seeming indecisiveness in the face of the rebellion.   He knew Prigozhin had declared war on Russia yet did not act to arrest him back in May when Prigozhin first started demanding the removal of Shoigu and Gerasimov. He did not order Russian armies to intercept and destroy the Wagner forces on their movement north towards Moscow. He most likely would have had the rebels advanced farther.  Yet they did get to within a day's reach of the capital. It's also fairly evident to the overall Russian population that Putin's war in Ukraine is not producing the results anticipated when the invasion began in the winter of 2022.) 

 June 26   Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin issued an 11+ minute audio message giving rationale to his armed rebellion against Vladimir Putin. The intent was to make a point, he said:  "We went to demonstrate our protest, not to overthrow the government." (quotation source, Associated Press)

Prigozhin acknowledged the intervention of the Belarusian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, who he said "extended his hand" and offered to find a way for Wagner to continue operating " in a legitimate jurisdiction."  "We regret that we had to hit air assets, but those assets were dropping bombs and launching missile strikes," Prigozhin said. The "air assets" were  seven Russian aircraft shot down as the Wagner troops moved north toward Moscow.  In a contemptuous statement critical of the failure of Putin's initial invasion of Ukraine in 2022,  he jibed that if Russia's armed forces had been able to advance in Ukraine as rapidly as Wagner's had in Russia itself — seizing the city of Rostov-on-Don, home to a military command center and more than one million people, and making it within striking distance of the capital — "then, perhaps, the special operation would have lasted a day."

 Prigozhin also did not apologize for his mutiny, saying only that he was sorry he was forced by circumstances to engage in an armed rebellion.  He did not confirm that he has agreed to exile in Belarus  nor offer any indication of his current whereabouts.  It was reported that he was being housed in a windowless hotel in Minsk, the Belarusian capital. Windowless?  There's a precedence of Putin's enemies allegedly "committing suicide" by leaping from hotel or hospital windows. (quotations source: Business Insider)

Going on national television on June 26, Putin addressed the country, saying the June 24 attack on the government was a "criminal adventure" of "armed mutiny."  The "treason", he said, was the result of "big ambitions and personal interests".   He praised those among the Wagner Group who fought and died alongside "our soldiers" for the "liberation" of the Donbas, but their memory has been betrayed by the perpetrators of the mutiny. "Anyone who consciously went on the path of betrayal, who prepared the armed mutiny, went on the path of blackmail and terrorist actions, will be punished inevitably. They will answer before the law and our people."...."I repeat: any internal mutiny is a deadly threat to our state, to us as a nation. It’s a blow against Russia, against our people. And our actions to defend the fatherland from such a threat will be brutal. He made vague reference to means whereby Russian security might be strengthened in Moscow and elsewhere and Russian control restored in Rostov-on-Don. "As a president of Russia and the commander-in-chief, as a citizen of Russia, I will do everything to defend the country, protect the Constitution, lives and safety, liberty of the citizens. Those who organized and prepared the military mutiny, who turned weapons against their comrades-in-arms, have betrayed Russia, and will be held accountable for that."  He concluded his message saying "I believe that we will defend and preserve what’s sacred for us. And together with the motherland, we will overcome all challenges, and become even stronger.”  At no point in his speech did Putin mention Prigozhin by name.  (quotation source: The Guardian)

On June 23 and 24, on the background of this crisis with its immediate outcome uncertain, US President Biden, Secretary of State Blinken, and other State Department personnel were in close telephone contact with the leaders of major European allies, particularly Britain, France, and Germany as well as with NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg and other G 7 states.  In Russia, American diplomatic personnel remained in contact with their counterparts in Moscow. It was stressed that the US regarded the Prigozhin mutiny as a Russian internal matter and expected Russia to ensure the safety of the US Embassy in Moscow and of other Americans in Russia.  

Putin did, of course, later in his June 26 speech, blame the West,  making the allegation that  "Russia is fighting fiercely for its future, repelling the aggression of neo-Nazis and their handlers. Directed against us is the whole military, economical and information machines of the West."  By "neo-Nazis" Putin meant the Zelenskyy government in Kyiv; their "handlers" being the US, NATO, and the EU. (quotation source: The Guardian)

The diversion of the Prigozhin "mutiny" did not mean the war paused. On June 27 a wave of Russian S-300 missiles struck the city of Kramatorsk. The missiles seemed primarily targeted at a popular pizza restaurant.  The attack killed at least 11, including three teenagers, two of whom were twin sisters.  Sixty one others were injured in the attack.  Residential areas, several schools, and a shopping center were also hit. None of the targets were military. On June 28 Ukrainian authorities reported the arrest of a "sleeper agent" who just hours before the attack filmed areas of the city, including the restaurant, and sent the video to the GRU, the Main Intelligence Directorate  (abbreviated GRU in Russian) of the General Staff of the Russian army.  The captured spy allegedly received orders to film the restaurant as proof that it was open for patrons. 

June 28  General Sergei Surovikin, Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces, was reportedly arrested. Known as "General Armageddon" for the brutality of his campaigns in Syria, Surovikin had served as commander of all Russian forces in Ukraine from Oct. 2022 until mid- January 2023.  He oversaw the Russian air and missile assaults on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, a campaign that ultimately failed, and was replaced by General Valery Gerisamov.  Despite his having publicly condemned Prigozhin's mutiny, Surovikin was reputed to have been close with the Wagner chief, sharing Prigozhin's disdain for Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. However, once Prigozhin began his advance towards Moscow, Surovikin was vehement in his public condemnation and ordered the air attack on the Wagner troops.  In that attack seven Russian military aircraft were shot down. Russia officially remained mute on the status of Surovikin.  When questioned by reporters on June 29, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told them to ask the Defense Ministry, in effect, "no comment." On August 22 the Russian Business Consulting news network reported that Surovikin had been relieved as commander of Russia’s aerospace forces but remained in the Defense Ministry.  

June 29 Former US Vice President Mike Pence made an unannounced  visit to Kyiv, meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Pence had announced on June 7 his candidacy for the Republican nomination for President and asserted that the US should continue its aid to Ukraine.  When in Ukraine, Pence was taken to Bucha, Irpin, and Moschun, three sites where Russian troops committed brutal atrocities against civilian populations.  With numerous other Republican candidates, including former President Donald Trump, Pence stands alone in affirming continued support for the war. In January, Trump claimed that if he were elected, he could guarantee a deal that would end the war in 24 hours.  (author's comment: Continued US support for the war will certainly be an issue in the primary elections for both parties. At this time there are 12 Republicans and three Democrats seeking their party's nomination.)

July 2 Kyiv was the target of an overnight Russian drone and missile assault, all 11 of which were reported intercepted and shot down with only one civilian injury. This was the first such attack on the capital in 12 days. Elsewhere in Ukraine Russian artillery fire into the city of Kherson injured four civilians.  On the eastern battlefront in Donetsk Ukrainian troops were reported to be advancing against Russian positions near Bakhmut. It is still not known if the sporadic fighting in the Donbas is part of the anticipated major offensive. 

July 4 Russia claimed to have intercepted and destroyed five Ukrainian drones near Moscow, causing Moscow's Vnukovo International Airport to be temporarily shut down to air traffic.  A defense ministry statement called the attack a "new terrorist act" against "civil infrastructure."  (quotation source, AFP) There were no reported injuries.

Ukrainian officials meanwhile said 38 people, including12 children, had been hospitalized following a Russian strike on the town of Pervomaisky in the eastern Kharkiv region.  

July 6  NBC News reported that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, in a lengthy televised press conference, announced that Wagner Group Head Yevgeny Prigozhin was not in Belarus nor were his soldiers.  Prigozhin, he said, was still in Russia - his hometown St. Petersburg, and the Wagner Group soldiers were still in their "permanent camps" in the Russian occupied zones (of Ukraine). 

This all seems surprisingly contrary to what was being announced on June 24, when Lukashenko was seen as the arbiter who ended the Prigozhin mutiny by negotiating an agreement that Prigozhin would end his campaign against Putin and take asylum in Belarus. In his press conference, Lukashenko  referred to the long friendship between Putin and Prigozhin, saying "You have to understand that Putin knows Prigozhin much better than I do" .... “Putin is much more familiar with him, even from the time in St. Petersburg, when they lived and worked there. And they had very good relations with each other — maybe even more than good.” (quotation source: NBC News)

July 7 US President Biden announced an $800,000,000 arms package for Ukraine that would include cluster munitions. Cluster "bombs", as they're known, are air-dropped or ground-launched (artillery) munitions that eject explosive bomblets, increasing the spread of destruction. The projectile "explodes", releasing a cluster of smaller bombs that fall over the area being attacked.  Often not all of the bomblets explode when hitting the ground, making them lethal weapons if picked up or stepped on. This makes them highly controversial as their use threatens civilian populations in combat zones.  Because of their wide range of killing potential, cluster bombs have been banned by over 120 countries through the UN's 2008 Convention on Cluster Munitions.  Russia, Ukraine and the US are not party to the agreement. The US used cluster bombs in its wars in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Russia used cluster weapons in Syria.  Both Russia and Ukraine have been using clusters against each other on their battlefronts.  The weapons, Biden explained, were needed to bolster Ukraine's waning supply of ordnance. The US aid package also includes Bradley and Stryker armored vehicles and an array of ammunition, such as rounds for howitzers and HiMAR rockets.  (HiMARs? See June 4, 2022 above.)

Reaction was voiced by Paul Hannon of the International Campaign to Ban Landmines and Cluster Munition Coalition governance board, “The Biden administration’s decision to transfer cluster munitions will contribute to the terrible casualties being suffered by Ukrainian civilians both immediately and for years to come. Russia and Ukraine’s use of cluster munitions is adding to Ukraine’s already massive contamination from explosive remnants and landmines.” Ilhan Omar, a Democratic congresswoman from Minnesota, commented, “We have to be clear: if the US is going to be a leader on international human rights, we must not participate in human rights abuses .... We can support the people of Ukraine in their freedom struggle, while also opposing violations of international law. In fact, the innocent victims of the cluster munitions will almost exclusively be Ukrainian civilians. Instead of dealing cluster munitions, we should be doing everything in our power to end their use.” Omar intends to introduce an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act that would prohibit the sale of cluster munitions. (quotations source: The Guardian)

July 8 Ukrainian President Zelenskyy released a video of his addressing his country from Snake Island.  July 8 was the 500th day of the war. It was not evident as to when the video was filmed as Zelenskyy was in Turkey that day. In his remarks he paid tribute to all who had lost their lives, especially, "the heroes" who fought to defend Snake Island back in February, 2022.  He likened the defiance of the Snake Island defenders as symbolic of Ukraine's resistance against Russian aggression. (The story of Snake Island is considered above. See April 14, 2022.)

July 8  Zelenskyy traveled to Ankara to meet with Turkish President Recep Erdogan.  Erdogan, surprisingly, announced that Ukraine "deserves" NATO membership. Surprising because Erdogan has taken a somewhat neutral stance regarding NATO's support for Ukraine and has maintained close ties with Russian President Putin. Putin is scheduled to travel to Turkey in August. Also surprising was that Erdogan released five Ukrainian army officers who had been under Turkish authority since September 2022. The officers had been commanders of the Ukrainian defense of Mariupol during the Russian siege of that city in the spring of 2022 and had been detained in Turkey as part of a Turkish brokered prisoner of war exchange agreement. They returned to Ukraine with Zelenskyy. Russia immediately condemned their release, calling it as violation of the prisoner of war detention agreement. 

Seeking reassurances from allied governments that they would support Ukraine's bid for NATO membership, he had made visits to Germany, Bulgaria, and the Czech Republic before arriving in Turkey.  A summit meeting of NATO leaders is scheduled for July 11-12 in Vilnius, Lithuania.

The war, of course, continues.  On July 6 a wave of Russian cruise missiles struck residential areas, killing six and injuring at least 36, in the city of Lviv. Lviv is in the western reaches of Ukraine, far from the regions most directly affected by the fighting.  A July 8 rocket attack on Lyman in Donetsk killed eight and injured 13 others. On July 9 a Russian guided bomb dropped from an aircraft, struck a UN humanitarian aid distribution facility in the town of Orikhiv in Ukraine's Zaporyzhzhia region. Seven were killed and 11 were injured, all civilians. 

USA Today reported on Monday, July 10 that Russian President Putin met with Yevgeny Prigozhin and other Wagner Group officers on June 29, five days following Prigozhin's June 24 "mutiny". Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that they met in Moscow and Prigozhin offered an "assessment" of Wagner’s actions on the battlefield in Ukraine and "of the events of June 24." Peskov said Putin "listened to the explanations of the commanders and offered them options for further employment and further use in combat." (quotations source: USA Today)  

Russia's military Chief of Staff, General Valery Gerasimov, whose removal was one of Prigozhin's demands prior to the "mutiny", reappeared on July 10 following a protracted period of media absence. That absence gave rise to speculation that Gerasimov may have been arrested or otherwise removed from command. He was shown in a video meeting with other generals.  

(author's comment: Is what we are hearing from Russia accurate, or is Russia's state-controlled media engaged in Orwellian Newspeak?  How is it that Prigozhin is vilified as a traitor one day and Putin's buddy the next? Are the videos showing Gerasimov meeting his generals current or just reruns of past meetings?  Remember the Machiavellian principles?  The good of the state is the supreme good and the end justifies the means to the end.  I'm sure he'd be fascinated with all that's going on.)

July 11 In another remarkable shift in policy, Turkish President Erdogan announced that his country will support Sweden's bid to join NATO. Both Sweden and Finland had applied for NATO membership in 2022. Finland was acceptable to Turkey, but Erdogan refused to consider Swedish membership as he saw Sweden as supportive of Kurdish rebels ("terrorists"), seeking independence for Kurdish territories in Turkey. Turkey, however, also wants admission to the European Union and backing Sweden's NATO membership may be a means to that end.  In any case, NATO membership requires the approval of the Turkish parliament. 

(author's comment: The strategic implication of Sweden joining NATO is significant. The Baltic Sea will, in effect, become a NATO "lake", almost entirely surrounded by member states.  Russia has only two sea accesses to the Baltic: through the Gulf of Finland to St. Petersburg and the Kaliningrad oblast (region), which is completely separated from the rest of Russia by Poland and Lithuania. Russia's Baltic fleet is based in Kaliningrad. Remember that a source of Russia’s historic xenophobia has been its geographic isolation by perceived enemies.)  

July 11 Leaders of the 31- nation NATO alliance met for a two-day summit in Vilnius, Lithuania. Topping the agenda was membership for Ukraine. This issue has proved controversial as Article 5 of the NATO charter binds all members of the alliance to an "attack-on-one-is-an-attack-on-all" commitment. Ukraine is now at war with Russia. The purpose of Article 5 is to preserve peace through deterrence. Were Ukraine a member of NATO before the Russian invasion, Russia would be attacking all members of the alliance; something it certainly would not do.  Ukraine wants full NATO membership immediately.  It had been clear for months, however, that immediate membership is not going to happen.   Most members agree that Ukraine should be in NATO, but when is another matter. In the meantime many NATO states will most likely continue to provide logistical, military, and diplomatic support for Ukraine.  Speaking in a press conference, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg stated that Ukraine will join NATO "when allies agree and conditions are met." The usual conditions for membership, he said, would be amended to allow Ukraine a speedier admission. Asked about Zelenskyy’s concerns, Stoltenberg said the most important thing now is to ensure that his country wins the war, because “unless Ukraine prevails there is no membership to be discussed at all.”  Zelenskyy was invited to the meeting and despite being given an enthusiastic welcome by the assembled delegations, he was not happy with the assembly's position, having earlier called it "absurd."  (quotations source: Associated Press) 

July 12  Zelenskyy met with President Biden in a conference with G 7 leaders at the NATO meeting and was assured that the G 7 states would continue their support for Ukraine.  This caused him to moderate his criticism, stating in a tweet that his country understands "that Ukraine cannot become a member of NATO while there is a war ongoing." He added that the NATO meeting was a "much needed and meaningful success for Ukraine ...."It opens for us absolutely new security opportunities." (quotation source: CBS News)

The NATO conference also expressed its acceptance of Sweden once the Turkish parliament approves.  A photograph from the conference showed Turkish President Erdogan shaking hands with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson.  (author's comment: It has not been making the news, but Hungary has also expressed reservations regarding Sweden's joining NATO.  However, Hungary claims that once Turkey approves, its parliament will vote for Swedish membership. NATO membership requires the parliamentary approval of all other member nations.)

July 13 On his return to the US, President Biden made a stopover in the Finnish capital Helsinki. There he met with met with Finnish President Sauli Niinistö and the leaders of Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Iceland. He thanked them as NATO allies and assured them US support for NATO and  Ukraine will not waver.

 (author's comment - and digression: Biden and Niinistö met in the same room of the Finnish Presidential Palace where former President Trump and Putin met in their Helsinki summit in July 2018.  At that meeting Putin assured Trump that Russia in no way interfered in the 2016 US presidential election.  Evidence (The Mueller Report) showed that Russian operatives had manipulated disinformation discrediting Trump's Democratic rival Hillary Clinton.  In a Helsinki press conference, Trump stated, "He (Putin)  just said it's not Russia. I don't see any reason why it would be" ... "President Putin was extremely strong and powerful in his denial."  Of course, Putin was. He knew how to manipulate Trump to his advantage. Trump admired strong authoritarian leadership. It was, after all, his ethic as a businessman.  The quotation source here is Fiona Hill's There Is Nothing for You Here, 2023 edition. Hill is a foreign policy Russian expert who served in the Bush, Obama, and Trump administrations.)  

July 16  Russia reported having successfully intercepted an alleged Ukrainian drone attack aimed at the naval base at Sevastopol in Crimea. All nine drones were destroyed.  Ukraine did not comment on the attack.  

Fighting continued along the eastern battlefronts in the Donbas. The Russian forces have "dug in," in lines of defensive entrenchments in front of which they have "sewn" fields of land mines. Reminiscent of the trench warfare of World War One, Ukrainian forces face exposure to deadly fire when advancing against the Russian lines.  Hence, the offensive has begun to lose momentum.  It's also losing momentum because of dwindling supplies of ammunition.  Battlefield setbacks have also seen the loss of Western-provided tanks and Bradley armored vehicles essential to the Ukrainian forces.  Ukrainian President Zelenskyy was promised continued support by the NATO allies, but the shipment of needed ammunition and weaponry is slow and inconsistent.  He has repeatedly called for longer-range missiles, namely the 190-mile range US Army Tactical Missile System. (The Biden administration to date has been reluctant to provide such weapons, but is supposedly reconsidering.)  Ukraine has also made pleas for F-16 jet fighter planes.  The New York Times reported that "the defense ministers of Denmark and the Netherlands announced this past week that they had gathered 11 countries to help train Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets as soon as next month."  The training will take place in Romania.  

A July 14 report from Minsk stated that Wagner Group troops are in Belarus to assist in training the Belarusian army.  While Yevgeny Prigozhin's presence has not been confirmed, he is reputed to be in the Belarusian camp where the Wagner force is billeted.  That camp is some 55 miles southeast of Minsk.  Also unconfirmed is the report that Putin wants Prigozhin to be replaced as Wagner head by Andrei Troshev. Troschev (age 70)  is a veteran army officer who distinguished himself in Syria and Chechnya. He was in on the Wagner Group's founding and has been part of the Wagner command structure since. 

July 17 Russia announced that it will not approve renewal of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI). Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia's demands regarding its own agricultural shipments have not been met. The BSGI agreement allows Ukrainian grain and fertilizer shipments to pass through the Russian naval blockade of Ukrainian ports. Russia has complained that restrictions on shipping and insurance have hampered its own exports of food and fertilizer and it wants those restrictions lifted. “When the part of the Black Sea deal related to Russia is implemented, Russia will immediately return to the implementation of the deal," Peskov said. The BSGI has not hurt Russia's grain export.  The US Department of Agriculture estimates Russia exported 45.5 million metric tons of wheat in the 2022-2023 trade year, with another record of 47.5 million metric tons expected in 2023-2024." (quotations source: Associated Press)  The BSGI was last renewed on May 18 for a period of two months, expiring on July 19. (The BSGI is explained above. See July 22, 2022.)  If the BSGI is not renewed, food shipments to vulnerable parts of the world, primarily the drought-stricken Horn of Africa, will end. 

July 17 Russia reported a Ukrainian attack on the Kerch Bridge, claiming “Two Ukrainian unmanned underwater vehicles carried out an attack on the Crimean Bridge.” Two civilians were killed and their daughter was injured in the pre-dawn explosions. The roadway was damaged, forcing closure of the bridge to civilian traffic.  Completed in 2019, the Kerch Bridge is a 12-mile long road and rail span linking Russia with Crimea over the Kerch Strait.  As it is the only land link, it has great strategic value. It also has great personal prestige value to Putin. It's his bridge. He authorized its construction and drove the first vehicle to cross it in its opening ceremony.  Part of the bridge was seriously damaged in a truck bomb explosion in October 2022. (See Oct 7, 2022 above.)  Ukraine has remained silent in relation to both attacks. (quotation sources: The Guardian) The damaged roadway on the bridge was reopened on July 18. 

July 18  A day after announcing its withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI), Russia launched a wave of missile and drones against Odesa and other Ukrainian port cities. Russia justified the attacks as "mass revenge strikes" in retaliation for Ukraine's strike against the Kerch Bridge. Ukraine claimed that its air defenses had intercepted and destroyed most of the Russian drones and missiles. Still, there was damage to some homes and port infrastructure in Odesa and Mykolaiv. Andriyy Yermak, head of the Ukrainian presidential staff, called the attacks "further proof that (Russia) wants to endanger the lives of 400 million people in various countries that depend on Ukrainian food exports." (quotation source: Reuters) Some 60,000 tons of grain in an Odesa storage facility were reported destroyed.

Ukraine and Russia are both among the world's biggest exporters of grain and other foodstuffs. If Ukrainian grain is again blocked from the market, prices could soar around the world, hitting the poorest countries hardest. Commenting on Russia's withdrawal from the BSGI, UN Secretary-General Antonia Guterres said  that Russia's action "will strike a blow to people in need everywhere." (quotation source: Reuters)

While Russia has not officially declared a naval blockade of Ukrainian ports, it has made public notice of maritime exclusion zones in the Black Sea. Such zones serve warning that commercial shipping in those waters risks being caught in combat operations. Russia's intent is to deter further commerce with Ukraine as insurance costs for both ships and cargoes would become prohibitive.  Ukraine is seeking an agreement with Romania to move its shipping through Romanian territorial waters. As Romania is a member of NATO, Ukraine presumes Russia will not risk attacking ships in Romanian waters. 

July 18  The Wall Street Journal reported that Russia had seized the assets of Danone and Carlsberg, two major European conglomerates still doing business in Russia. Danone is a French dairy business and had been the largest producer of dairy products in Russia.  Carlsberg is a Danish brewer and operated  in Russia through Baltika Breweries. Baltika has eight breweries in Russia and around 8,400 employees there, representing more than one in every five members of Carlsberg’s total global workforce. April, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow was taking retaliatory measures to what he described as Western efforts to seize Russian assets abroad. Last year, Germany took control of the German business of Russian oil giant Rosneft and put Gazprom’s German natural-gas business, formerly known as Gazprom Germania, under trusteeship.  Many Western businesses in Russia ceased operations earlier during the war, among them being Pepsico, Coca Cola, and MacDonald's. In order to do so they sold their Russian assets (properties, equipment, etc.) to Russian buyers.  Since December 2022, Russia requires a government audit of the market value of any foreign asset. The seller is then required to sell the asset at a 50% discount of that value. On top of that, there is a 10% exit tax. Consequently, businesses like Danone and Carlsberg face considerable financial losses in ridding themselves of their Russian assets. 

However, that may not be possible. Putin has assigned operation of the two conglomerates to two of his confederates. Yakub Zakriev, Chechnya’s agriculture minister, is now listed as general director of Danone Russia and  Taimuraz Bolloyev will lead Carlsberg’s Baltika Brewing Co, a business he once managed. Both Zakriev and Bolloyevwill are among Putin's oligarch cronies. “Putin is distributing assets to his vassals,” said Andrei Kolesnikov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. The takeovers represent “a kind of oligarchic state capitalism that does not exist outside of ties with the state. And certainly it will result in less efficiency in the economy.” (quotation source: Bloomberg)

July 19  It was announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin will not attend a summit meeting of the leaders of the BRICS Group of nations scheduled for August in South Africa.  Readers will remember that in March the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued a warrant for Putin's arrest, charging him for authorizing the forcible deportation of Ukrainian children, a crime against humanity. (See March 17 above.)  South Africa is a member of the ICC and, as such, obligated to arrest Putin were he to travel there.  In a public statement South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said the decision was by mutual agreement. Russia will be represented by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Putin will "attend" by video. 

    What is BRICS? Unlike NATO and other such multi-national groupings, BRICS  is not a formal organization. It was "founded" in 2006 when the foreign ministers of  Brazil, Russia, India, China met together on the background of the annual UN General Assembly meeting. They met to discuss common economic interests and development and decided to meet annually. The first summit of BRIC leaders was held in 2009. South Africa joined the group in 2010. The leaders have had annual summits since, and the 2023 host is South Africa.   The BRICS are all regional economic giants with a combined population of 3.21 billion people (41% of the global population).  All BRIC states have authoritarian or right-leaning governments.  (India, Brazil, and South Africa are democracies, but their presidents are all leaders of right-wing parties.  China and Russia may be "democracies" on paper, but the political reality is dictatorship.) 

July 20  In response to reports that the Wagner Group is training Belarusian troops near Belarus' border with Poland, Poland has begun increasing its military and police presence along that border. In Moscow Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated, "Of course it is a cause for concern. The aggressiveness of Poland is a reality. Such a hostile attitude towards Belarus and the Russian Federation requires heightened attention from our side." (quotation source: Reuters)  On July 21 Putin announced that a Polish attack on Belarus would be considered an attack on Russia. 

Another wave of Russian rockets and drones struck port areas in Odesa and Mykolaiv, injuring 21.  There was no report on how many, if any, of the incoming aircraft were destroyed by air defenses.  The Chinese Consulate in Odesa was among the buildings damaged.   Despite the attack, there was no statement of condemnation from China.  The 60,000 tons of grain destroyed in the Russian drone attack in July 18 was awaiting shipment to China. 

Meeting in Warsaw, the agricultural ministers of Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria signed a joint declaration supporting continued road, rail, and river shipments of Ukrainian grain to pass through their countries, even though they have banned the domestic sale of Ukrainian agricultural products in their own markets.  Why are Ukrainian agricultural imports banned?  Very simply because the Ukrainian grain is less expensive than their domestic products, and their farmers are suffering loss of income.  (See April 16 above.) That ban has been extended to the end of 2023. While moving Ukrainian grain to European markets and distribution centers helps Ukraine's export trade, it does not come close to the volume of sales made made when agricultural produce moves by ship.  Overseas shipping, however, has been ended with the Russian withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

July 20  UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemned the Russian attacks on Ukraine’s Black Sea ports warning that the "destruction of civilian infrastructure may constitute a violation of international humanitarian law." Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) on July 17 also ended UN support for the shipment of Russian grain and fertilizer across the Black Sea to world markets beyond. A UN spokesperson, commenting on the ending of the BSGI and the Russian air attacks, stated they have "an impact well beyond Ukraine. We are already seeing the negative effect on global wheat and corn (grain) prices which hurts everyone, but especially vulnerable people in the global south." The UN Security Council will meet on July 21 to consider the “humanitarian consequences” of Russia’s actions.  Readers are reminded that Russia is a permanent member of the Security Council and, as such, has veto power over any actions it takes.  (quotations source: Reuters)

On a much broader level, Guterres issued a policy paper titled “New Agenda for Peace”, regarding the challenges ahead for the UN. The post-Cold War period is over, he maintains, and "the world is moving toward a new multipolar era already marked by the highest level of geopolitical tensions and major power competition in decades." What are the challenges?  "More complex and deadly conflicts, re-emerging concerns about possible nuclear war, growing inequalities within and between countries, widespread terrorism, the climate emergency, mounting distrust in public institutions, and human rights under attack globally 'including a pernicious pushback against women’s rights.' ” These issues are undermining the philosophy and purpose upon which the UN was founded in 1945: peace and progress through international cooperation.  "Without naming Russia, he clearly criticized it, saying if every country fulfilled its obligations under the U.N. Charter which include respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all nations – 'the right to peace would be guaranteed.' ” (quotations source: Associated Press)  

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The UN Charter was presented by its founding states in San Francisco on June 26, 1945.  By joining the UN, all members accept the principles of the Charter and are expected to act accordingly.  Today there are 193 UN members. 

Article II (two) of the UN Charter states ...

1. The Organization is based on the principle of the sovereign equality of all its Members.

2. All Members, in order to ensure to all of them the rights and benefits resulting from membership, shall fulfill in good faith the obligations assumed by them in accordance with the present Charter.

3. All Members shall settle their international disputes by peaceful means in such a manner that international peace and security, and justice, are not endangered.

4. All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.

For background on the origin and purpose of the United Nations, see Chapter 24, Section 5.

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Guterres' New Agenda proposes the UN move away from its past exercise of sending multi-national peacekeeping forces to member countries in crisis. UN Peacekeeper forces are made up of military forces from member nations and were sent to suppress armed insurrections or establish and enforce peace in countries experiencing political or social instability. Today (September 2023) there are numerous UN peacekeeping operations, primarily in Africa and the Middle East but also in India, Pakistan, Timor, Haiti, and Afghanistan. Such missions are extremely costly to the participating countries and seemingly unlimited in duration.   

On June 30 the UN Security Council voted to end its 15,000-strong peacekeeping presence in Mali. The peacekeepers are from 65 UN member states with participation ranges from 1400 to one person.  Mali's ruling military government is facing an Islamic insurgency and has arranged for Wagner Group mercenaries to suppress the revolt. 

Instead of military peacekeepers, Guterres proposes member nations "move toward 'nimble, adaptable' peacekeeping models with exit strategies, and to support 'peace enforcement action by regional and sub-regional organizations,' mandated by the Security Council, paid for by UN member states, and backed by political efforts to promote peace."  (quotations source: Associated Press) 

(The full text of Gutteres' New Agenda for Peace can be found on the UN Website. https://press.un.org/en/2023/sgsm21885.doc.htm)

July 22  Remember the Russian oligarchs, the billionaire businessmen who benefited from their long-time support for Putin?  Anton Cherepennikov, 40, head of ICS Holding, Russia's largest IT company, was found dead at his Moscow office. ICS is used by Russia's Federal Security Service for surveillance of phone and internet use.  ICS is engaged in active spying on the Russian population.  His death was officially reported as cardiac arrest. Two days earlier, billionaire Igor Kudryakov (65), a former government official and businessman was also found dead. Unlike Cherepennikov's, Kudryakov's death is not seen as suspicious. 

July 23  Odesa was struck by another overnight wave of Russian missiles and drones. The attack, Ukraine reported, targeted a residential area, killing two  and injuring 19 other civilians.  The Ukrainian Orthodox Transfiguration Cathedral was severely damaged. Consecrated in 1809, the cathedral was demolished in 1936 as part of Stalin's suppression of the Ukrainian Orthodox church. Rebuilding began in 1999, and Transfiguration was consecrated anew in 2003.  Also damaged in the attack was the House of Scientists, a museum that was once the home of Count Tolstoy, a relative of the Russian author Leo Tolstoy.  Russia denied attacking the cathedral, claiming the destruction was most likely caused by the fall of a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile. Ukrainian air defenses reported destroying nine of the 19 attacking aircraft. In early 2023 the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) declared Odesa's historic center an endangered World Heritage Site.

In St. Petersburg Putin met with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. In a public statement Lukashenko referenced joint training drills by Belarusian and Wagner Group troops, saying that Wagner wanted to go “on an excursion to Warsaw, to Rzeszow” in Poland, but that "Belarus would not allow them to relocate. I am keeping them in central Belarus, like we agreed. ... We are controlling what is happening.” (quotation source: Newsweek)

Poland expressed concern that Wagner aspirations, whether in collusion with Russia and Belarus or not, are to invade Poland and seize the Suwałki Gap.  The Suwałki Gap or Suwałki Corridor is a 40-mile stretch of Polish territory separating Russian Kaliningrad from Belarus.  The Suwałki region also borders Lithuania. The territory has been labelled NATO's "Achilles heel" as its conquest would isolate the Baltic States from their NATO neighbor Poland. (Belarusian military training exercises would begin on August 7 in the Grodno region near the Suwałki Gap.)

July 24  Ukraine reported overnight Russian drone strikes on grain storage facilities in the cities of Reni and Izmail. Both cities are on the Danube River, the border between Ukraine and Romania. The attack, by 15 Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones, reportedly injured six civilians. This was the first time a Russian attack occurred within sight of a NATO member. Ukrainian grain shipments on the Danube account for a very small percentage of overall agricultural exports, but with the end of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Russia intends to end that as well. 

Ukrainian drone attacks were reported in Crimea and Moscow. Russian state-controlled media reported that one of two drones fell near the Defense Ministry building in Moscow. "A strike on that facility would have represented a major symbolic blow to the Russian military and might have killed or injured top military officials." The other drone appears to have struck an office building in southern Moscow, destroying several upper floors of the facility, according to media reports. (quotation source, The Washington Post) A swarm of 17 drones entered Russian-controlled airspace in Crimea overnight and hit a weapons storage facility in Dzhankoy. Nearby residents were evacuated to temporary shelters for fear of munitions explosions, and traffic was rerouted around the depot. Russian officials said 14 of the drones, including those that initially hit their targets, were brought down using electronic jamming equipment, while three were shot down by air defenses. 

July 25  The Russian Parliament approved a new law adjusting age ranges for military conscription. Beginning in 2024, the law makes all males between the ages of 18 and 30 eligible for the draft, the maximum age being increased by three years.  The change makes an additional 2.32 million men eligible for military service.  Putin also signed a new law raising the age at which senior reserve officers can be sent into combat from 60 to 65. 

Another (the sixth this month) wave of Russian drones was launched against Kyiv.  Ukraine claimed all of 10 of the attacking aircraft were destroyed. There was no report of ground casualties. 

Questions are being raised over China's July 25 announcement that Foreign Minister Qin Gang had been replaced by Wang Yi. Qin held the office for only seven months and had vanished from public life for a month. Wang was once Ambassador to the US and had earlier served as Foreign Minister. There was no public explanation for Qin's removal.  We had seen earlier that China's consulate in Odesa was damaged in a drone attack on July 20. 

China plays a significant role in regard to the war in Ukraine.  It has business assets in Ukraine, and Ukraine is a participant in China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)   

    What is the BRI? The BRI is an ambitious international economic development program that China launched in 2013.  Through the BRI China aims to promote inter-regional infrastructure development in partnership with some 148 countries in Europe, Asia, Africa, and Latin America.  Such projects as building highways, railways, ports, power stations, aviation facilities, and telecommunications systems.  The BRI is the centerpiece of Chinese President Xi Jinping's foreign policy. It is China's modern variation on the ancient Silk Route, through which a distant China traded with Europe, India, and the Middle East. The BRI, of course, expands China's global reach immensely, and its economic expansion brings its political and military influence as well.  In June 2023, China and Cuba announced that they were negotiating the future building of a military base in Cuba where China will train Cuban soldiers.  We have seen that the US considers Cuba and the overall Caribbean area an area of vital interest to American security.  (See March 14 author's comment.)

July 27  While China certainly plays a major role in global geopolitics (and everything else), Africa is also part of the global picture, and parts of the continent are directly impacted by the war in Ukraine.  The countries in the Horn of Africa - Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, South Sudan - are experiencing devastating drought and are under threat of widespread famine. The Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI), enabling the shipment of Ukrainian grain to the region provided some relief, but Russia's withdrawal from the BSGI agreement on July 17 ended those shipments.  Russian efforts to have and expand  influence in the Continent go back decades to Soviet encouragement of resistance to European imperial rule in the 1950s and '60s.  (See Chapter 28 The End of Imperialism and the Emergence of the Third World.)  

Putin has been attempting to renew and energize Russian influence in Africa.  That effort began in 2019 with a Russia-Africa Summit, a  meeting in Moscow attended by the heads of state of 43 of the continent's 56 countries.  At that meeting Putin pledged to increase Russian trade in Africa to some $40 billion, a goal that had not as yet been reached, and, considering the international sanctions imposed on Russia since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, most likely will never be reached. 

July 27 A new two-day Russia-Africa Summit began on July 27 in St. Petersburg. Unlike the meeting in 2019, only 17 African heads of state are in attendance; 32 states sent lesser officials. Asked about the low number of attending leaders, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: "This is absolutely blatant, brazen interference by the United States, France and other states through their diplomatic missions in African countries and their attempts to put pressure on the leadership of these countries in order to prevent their active participation in the forum... It’s absolutely outrageous, but it will in no way prevent the success of the summit,”  (quotation source, PBS)  Russia's ending the BSGI is a more likely reason than allegations of Western "pressure." Kenyan Foreign Minister Korir Sing’Oei stated on July 24 that “The decision by Russia to exit the Black Sea Grain Initiative is a stab on the back at global food security prices and disproportionately impacts countries in the Horn of Africa already impacted by drought.” (quotation source: The Guardian)

Addressing the end of the BSGI, Putin pledged that Russia would provide free grain to six African countries (Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Somalia, Eritrea, and the Central African Republic) and continue grain shipments a low cost to other African states. “I want to give assurances that our country is capable of replacing the Ukrainian grain both on a commercial and free-of-charge basis,” Putin said, asserting that Russia shipped almost 10 million tons of grain to Africa in the first half of the year. (quotation source, PBS) Still, the African leaders called for renewal of the BSGI. Putin responded by blaming the West for violating the BSGI agreement and causing the correspondent rise of global grain prices. 

On July 28, the summit directed its attention to ending the war in Ukraine.  The war, after all, was what was causing the disruption of grain shipping and consequent rise of food prices.  African Union Commission Chairman Moussa Faki Mahamat told the assembly, "This war must end. And it can only end on the basis of justice and reason, .... The disruptions of energy and grain supplies must end immediately. The grain deal must be extended for the benefit of all the peoples of the world, Africans in particular." (quotation source, Reuters)  In June the Africa Union Commission presented a plan for peace that included a "Russian troop pull-back, removal of Russian tactical nuclear weapons from Belarus, suspension of an International Criminal Court arrest warrant against Putin, and sanctions relief." (quotation source: Reuters) Other leaders, including South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, called for de-escalation and constructive engagement and negotiation. Putin allowed as how his government was "studying" the African plan, but that Ukraine refuses to negotiate. (author's comment: In other words, Putin has no intention of acting on the African peace plan.)

What is the African Union? Founded in 2001and headquartered in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, the African Union (AU) is an international organization of 55 nations.  The AU is organized similarly to other international bodies with a general assembly of its members and an executive commission.  As with other such groups, it addresses political, economic, and social issues of common interest, but, as with any organization of sovereign states, rarely achieves consensus on effective means to resolve those issues. 

Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin was reported present at the summit, albeit not in an official capacity. Contracted by their governments to fight insurgencies, Wagner mercenaries have been long involved in Sudan, Mali, and the Central African Republic.  Prigozhin requires payment in gold for Wagner services. While this places his client states under great financial obligation, it finances Wagner operations and pays its soldiers' wages.  It has also made Prigozhin a billionaire.  

July 30 In an impressive review of assembled vessels and personnel in St. Petersburg, Putin celebrated Russia's annual Navy Day. In his remarks, Putin praised the navy for its service and promised 30 new warships of all classes would be added to the fleet over the next year. The ceremony was attended by several African leaders in Russia for the recent Russia-Africa Summit. His remarks did not include mention of the Ukrainian drones that struck buildings in Moscow overnight.

Russia's Ministry of Defense reported the overnight interception and destruction of three Ukrainian drones over Moscow.  Despite the interception, two drones either struck or their debris hit two high rise buildings in Moscow's business center. Two people were reported injured. Ukraine did not affirm the attack, but President Zelenskyy commented, "Ukraine is becoming stronger," ... "The war is gradually returning to Russian territory, to its symbolic centers and military bases, and this is an inevitable, natural and absolutely fair process.” (quotation source: Associated Press) 

Led by a merchant ship from Israel, three cargo vessels defied the Russian blockade and crossed the Black Sea to the Ukrainian port of Izmail on the Danube River. The ships were escorted by several unarmed patrol NATO aircraft.  All the ships had their transponders on and were clearly visible on Russian radar, but there was no attempt to stop them.  The ships are registered under the flags of Israel, Greece, and Turkey/Georgia. 

July 31 Russian missiles struck a residential area in the Ukrainian city of Kryviyi Rih, killing six and wounding many others. Kryviyi Rih is the birthplace of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy.  The attack was seen as retaliation for the earlier missile strike in Moscow.  Twelve civilians were killed in missile strikes against the city on June 13. 

Aug 2 A Russian drone attack against port and storage facilities in Izmail destroyed some 40,000 tons of Ukrainian grain. The grain was destined for markets in Africa, China, and Israel.  Reuters reported that because of that attack global wheat prices initially rose 4% on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, a very pessimistic sign for the future market. Ukraine's grain exports in July fell 40% from the previous month. President Klaus Iohannes of neighboring Romania commented that the attacks "are war crimes and they further affect UA's [Ukraine's] capacity to transfer their food products towards those in need in the world."  (quotation Source: POLITICO) 

Aug 3  Russia announced the beginning of "Ocean Shield 2023," a multi-day naval training exercise in the Baltic Sea.  The exercise involves some 30 warships and 6000 troops.  It's not clear if the troops are the ships' crews, marines, or other military personnel.  The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that the aim of the maneuvers is to review the operational readiness of the Baltic fleet and will involve live-fire drills.  (Russia last conducted such "war games" in the Baltic in June.) 

According to a report released on August 3rd by the Yale University School of Medicine's Humanitarian Research Lab, Russian authorities in occupied areas of Ukraine "have made access to certain medicine and medical care conditional on accepting Russian citizenship" .... "These restrictions force vulnerable persons (including residents who are elderly, have chronic medical problems, have disabilities, or have low income) to decide between accepting Russian citizenship or forgoing medical care, especially when they are unable to leave the occupied areas." (quotation source: Insider)

Aug 4  Update on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.  The Russian-occupied plant, located in an area that has seen frequent artillery exchanges between Russian and Ukrainian forces, has been idle for months. Ukraine has insisted that the Russians placed mines and explosives throughout the facility and threatened destruction of the plant should Ukraine prevail in recovering it. The United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency had long pressed Russia to allow its personnel  into the plant. Allowed access on Aug. 3, the UN inspectors reported finding no explosive devices.  The plant remains highly vulnerable. While all six of its reactors have been shut down, it's dependent upon a steady flow of electricity to operate pumps for the cooling systems. Electricity has been frequently interrupted by fighting in the area.

Former governor of New Jersey Chris Christie met with President Zelenskyy in Kyiv. Christie is a declared Republican presidential candidate whose public statements show him supportive of continued US assistance to Ukraine.  He was taken to view a mass grave in Bucha and damage in Irpin, a Kyiv suburb.  (Christie later ended his candidacy.)

Russia reported that on Aug 4 an attack by Ukrainian sea drones in the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk damaged, but did not sink, two warships.  Located on the coast southeast of Crimea, Novorossiysk is the primary port from which Russia exports oil, petroleum products, and much of its grain. Likewise, on Aug 5 Moscow acknowledged that a Ukrainian sea drone damaged a Russian tanker in the Kerch Strait. None of the crew were reported wounded or killed. The ship reportedly was transporting aviation fuel to Syria. Russia calls such attacks acts of terrorism against civilians. As is its practice for such events, Ukraine denied responsibility for the attacks. The British Ministry of Defense reported on Aug. 9 that while such sea drone attacks may seem insignificant, they are disrupting Russian Black Sea shipping. 

What are sea drones? Sea drones are radio-guided explosive-laden surface (and underwater) vessels about the size of a 16-foot motorboat.  Lacking human crews, they are usually identified as "unmanned surface vessels" (USVs).  Built with a low surface profile, USVs are equipped with cameras that beam back video images to their controllers. Long range targets are pre-programmed into the USV before its launch and remotely hand guided in for the final strike. Ukraine released video from the August 4th USV attack on a Russian warship, showing its night time approach to the vessel, the image ending on impact. Russia also uses USVs and claims it used them in a recent attack on the Odesa waterfront.  Russia claimed  that underwater USVs were used in Ukraine's July 17 attack on the Kerch Bridge. Ukraine did not confirm responsibility for that attack. 

Aug 6  Mohammed bin Salman (MbS), the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia (and its de facto ruler), presided at a two-day international conference addressing a peaceful resolution of the war in Ukraine. Meeting in the Red Sea coastal city of Jeddah, representatives of some 40 nations, including the US, Ukraine, India, and China, discussed means to end the war.  Russia was not invited to attend. 

The focus of their discussions was the 10-point plan announced by Ukrainian President Zelenskyy at the G 20 summit in Nov. 2022.   (Reminder: Zelenskyy's 10-point plan outlines the conditions upon which Ukraine will accept peace. Here is a summarization of those points: radiation and nuclear safety, food security, energy security, release of prisoners and deportees, implementation of the UN Charter, withdrawal of Russian troops and cessation of hostilities, justice, ecocide and the protection of the environment, prevention of escalation, and confirmation of the end of the war.)  

China, it may be remembered, put forth its own 12-point plan for peace back in February. (Those points are vague at best. Both sides should respect the sovereignty of all countries, abandon the "Cold War mentality", cease hostilities, resume peace talks; resolve the humanitarian crisis, protect civilians and prisoners of war, keep nuclear power plants safe, reduce strategic risks, facilitate grain exports, stop unilateral sanctions, keep industrial and supply chains stable, and promote post-war reconstruction.)  At the conference, Zelenskyy met with the representatives of several BRICs countries (See July 19 above.), and they all seemed supportive of his demand that any peace with Russia must recognize Ukraine's prewar boundaries.  That, we know, would be totally unacceptable to Russia.  Russia, not having been invited to attend, dismissed the Jeddah conference as pointless.

(author's comment: Clearly, the Jeddah conference does not change anything regarding the war, other than to show that the war has global impact and attention. It also may provide MbS with some respect as a leader interested in peace, considering his reputation as a tyrant. More importantly, as repugnant as he may be, he is the ruler of the richest oil-producing country in the world. In effect, as Metternich might say, if Saudi Arabia sneezes, the world catches cold. Metternich? The 19th Century Austrian statesman? Really? See Chapter 13 section Major Participants at the Congress of Vienna.)

Peace conference or not, the war continued.  A wave of some 70 Russian drones and missiles was launched against Ukrainian targets, killing at least six civilians. There was no confirmation as to how many of the incoming weapons were destroyed.  Russia justified the attacks as revenge for the attack on the Russian tanker the day before. A Ukrainian drone was reported shot down near a Moscow airport.

In Kyiv workers completed sculptural changes to the 200-foot tall statue of "Mother Ukraine".  Previously named "Motherland," the defiant-faced towering female figure was originally constructed in 1981 to commemorate the Soviet Union's victory in World War II.  The hands of her upraised arms clenched a sword and shield embossed with the Soviet hammer-and-sickle. The renovation replaced the hammer-and-sickle with the Ukrainian  tryzub, the trident that was adopted as the national coat of arms in 1992. In a statement about the Soviet emblem’s removal, the Website of Ukraine’s national World War II museum described the Soviet coat of arms as a symbol of a totalitarian regime that “destroyed millions of people.”  “Together with the coat of arms, we’ve disposed the markers of our belonging to the ‘post-Soviet space’. We are not ‘post-’, but sovereign, independent and free Ukraine.” (quotation source: Associated Press)

Aug 7  Ukraine reported that a woman had been arrested for plotting to assassinate President Zelenskyy. The woman's name is being withheld, but the Ukrainian State Security Service said she had been passing information to Russian intelligence services regarding preparations for a late July visit by Zelenskyy to the Odesa and Mykolaiv regions. 

Belarus began military training exercises in the Grodno region near the border with Poland. This area is very near the geographically strategic Suwałki Gap. (See July 23 above.) The Belarusian Defense Ministry announced that the drills are based on experiences from “the special military operation”, the term Russia uses for its war in Ukraine. It said that includes the “use of drones as well as the close interaction of tank and motorized rifle units with units of other branches of the armed forces.” (quotation source, Associated Press) While it is known that Wagner Group forces had been training units of the Belarusian army, there’s no confirmation of Wagner involvement in these exercises.  Reservist Colonel General Andrey Kartapolov, chairman of the Russian parliament defense committee, told state TV last month that Russia "needs this Suwałki Corridor very much ... A strike force is ready to take this corridor in a matter of hours." (quotation source, Daily Express) Two Belarusian helicopters crossed some three miles into Polish air space. Flying low to avoid radar detection, the aircraft were reported by civilian observers. Belarus claimed that the copters were securing areas along the border prior to a visit by President Lukashenko and had "accidentally" strayed into Poland. 

Aug 8   In a report by the British news service Telegraph, we are reminded of the effect of the war on Black Sea commerce.  It has “very serious implications for food price inflation”.... Approximately 70% of Russia’s grain usually leaves by the black Sea ports and it was over 90% for Ukraine prior to the war.”

Aug 9  The Associated Press reported that within an hour after an Aug. 7th Russian missile strike against the Ukrainian town of Pokrovsk, a second wave of missiles struck the same area of the city.  (Pokrovsk is in the Donetsk region.) This second attack was purposely targeted against the emergency personnel rescuing victims of the first attack  The weapons used were  Iskander missiles, rockets with advanced guidance systems ensuring accurate targeting. This tactic of a second strike intended to disrupt rescue work is called a "double tap." Russia used "double tap" strikes in Syria's civil war and in other attacks on Ukrainian cities. Its purpose is to demoralize and disrupt civilian (police, fire, rescue) emergency efforts.  Ivan Vyhivskyi, chief of Ukraine’s National Police, said of the rescue workers, “They knew that under the rubble were the injured — they needed to react, to dig, to retrieve, to save. And the enemy deliberately struck the second time.” (quotation source: Associated Press)  

Aug 11 Russian media reported the destruction of 20 Ukrainian drones targeting areas in Crimea and the bridge over the Kerch Strait. Smoke was seen coming from the bridge, but Russian authorities claimed it was a defensive screen. (Author's comment: Drones guided by radar would not likely be affected by a smoke screen.)  Traffic on the bridge resumed after a brief shutdown. 

Aug 12   On the Black Sea the Sukru Okan, a cargo vessel bound for the Ukrainian port at Izmail, was intercepted by the Russian warship Vasily Bykov and ordered to halt for inspection. When the Okan ignored the demand, the Bykov fired warning shots across its bow.  Claiming the ship had not understood the message, Okan's captain allowed a boarding party to inspect the ship. Finding nothing to justify its seizure, the Okan was allowed to continue its voyage.  Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry said the incident violated international law and called on other countries to “take decisive action to prevent” such incidents. (Quotation source: Reuters)

Aug 14/15  As has become somewhat commonplace, a wave of Russian missiles struck cities across Ukraine overnight.  Most of the weapons were destroyed by air defense, but falling debris also caused damage and injuries.  Presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak called the strikes “Deliberate large-scale attacks on civilians. Solely for the sake of killing and psychological pressure,” The barrage, he added, was “an undeniable manifestation” .... "of Russia’s terrorist activity, legally documented by numerous destructions and victims.” (quotation source, Associated Press). Several of the strikes were in the Lviv region of northwest Ukraine, others were in the central Cherkasy region and the southeastern Dnipropetrovsk area.  In Cherkasy water and power infrastructure facilities were damaged.  In Dnipro, the Meteor sports complex was damaged.  The complex is the training base for the Ukrainian national swimming team. The attacks caused three deaths and numerous injuries. 

Aug 15 The eleventh annual Russian-hosted Conference on International Security opened in Moscow on Aug. 15. Primary among attendees was Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and his Chinese counterpart Li Shangfu. Defense officials from Belarus, Iran, India, and other non-aligned countries in the Middle east and Africa are also attending the four-day meeting. Putin made a video address to the conference, accusing the West of fueling the conflict “by pumping billions of dollars” into Kyiv and “supplying it with equipment, weapons, ammunition, sending their military advisers and mercenaries." “Everything is being done to ignite the conflict even more, to draw other states into it...”   Downplaying Western assistance for Ukraine, Shoigu stated that despite all that support, Ukraine's forces "fail to achieve results on the battlefield."  (quotation source, Associated Press)  Ukraine, he said, routinely shelled civilian populations in parts of the Russian-occupied Donbas and used the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) to smuggle weapons and munitions to Ukrainian ports. (author's comment: Under the BSGI all vessels sailing to/from Ukrainian ports were subject to UN, Turkish, and Russian inspection in Constantinople.  No contraband arms were ever found in those ships.)  

China's Li Shangfu expressed China's readiness to strengthen security measures within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). He stated that China is prepared to engage in joint exercises and drills with all nations, with the aim of expanding the scope of these activities and enhancing global collaboration on arms control and non-proliferation efforts. Li also highlighted China's commitment to bolstering defense cooperation with Iran and Belarus. 

    What is the SCO?  Founded by Russia and China in 2001, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is an economic, political, and security alliance comprising China, Iran, India, Russia, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Pakistan. SCO Observer countries include Afghanistan, Belarus, and Mongolia, with Azerbaijan, Armenia, Cambodia, Nepal, Turkey, and Sri Lanka holding a dialogue partner status. Belarus is slated for full         membership soon. 

Aug 16  In a test of Russian resolve, the Joseph Schulte, a Hong Kong registered container ship carrying 30,00 metric tons of grain, departed from Odesa for ports beyond the Black Sea. The ship had been in Odesa since Feb, 23, 2022, the day before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The ship's route is along a Ukrainian-proclaimed "Humanitarian Corridor. "  Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov  stated "The corridor will be primarily used to evacuate ships that were in the Ukrainian ports (Chornomorsk, Odesa and Pivdennyi) at the time of the ... invasion." (quotation source: Reuters)  Russia has not confirmed that it will respect the corridor. (author's comment: Russia, most likely, will respect the corridor for this vessel at least.  Hong Kong is in China.)  

In Brussels, Stian Jenssen, chief of staff to NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, commented in an interview with a Norwegian newspaper that were Ukraine to cede the contested Donbas and southern regions to Russia, it might ensure admittance to NATO. The reaction from Ukraine was predictable. Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to President Zelenskyy, said such a concession would be a "triumph" for Russian Vladimir Putin. "Trading territory for a NATO umbrella?" …. "That means deliberately choosing the defeat of democracy, encouraging a global criminal, preserving the Russian regime, destroying international law, and passing the war on to other generations."  Walking back his land-for-NATO comment, Jenssen stated it "was part of a larger discussion about possible future scenarios in Ukraine, and I shouldn't have said it that way. It was a mistake."  Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev (now head of Russia’s Security Council) accused the West of being unwilling to negotiate a peace because the combined US and European military-industrial complex is making “mammoth profits” on the war. (quotations source: USA Today)

Aug 19  In what has become commonplace across Ukraine, a Russian missile strike in the northern city of Chernihiv killed at least seven and injured more than 100  civilians. On the messaging platform Telegram President Zelenskyy wrote, “This is what we unite the whole world against" .... “A square, the polytechnic university, a theater. An ordinary Saturday, which Russia turned into a day of pain and loss.”  Russia's Ministry of Defense reported Ukrainian drones struck a military airfield near Novgorod and had shot down a Ukrainian drone in the Belgorod region. There were no reported casualties in either  event.  The Ministry also claimed its air defenses had downed a Ukrainian drone over center-city Moscow on August 18. (quotation source: Wall Street Journal) 

Aug 19 Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and First lady Olena Zelenska made a working visit to Stockholm.  Meeting with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, King Carl XVI and Queen Silvia, and parliamentary leaders, Zelenskyy thanked Sweden for its support in the war. Sweden on August 17 had announced a military aid package for Ukraine of some $300 million.  In addition to discussing military aid, Zelenskyy pressed for Ukraine's "European integration and common security in the Euro-Atlantic space" and support for Sweden's admission to NATO. (quotation source, Kyiv Independent News)

Aug 20 Moving on to the Netherlands, Zelenskyy met with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte who announced that the Netherlands and Denmark would be providing Ukraine with US-made F-16 fighter jets.  The dates and numbers of the aircraft transfers have yet to be determined as provisions must be made for Ukrainian airbase infrastructure and the training of Ukrainian pilots, engineers, and maintenance personnel.  Denmark and Romania have offered to provide pilot training, which can take from six to eight months.  (author's comment: See March 16 author comment re. F-16 pilot training.) 

Aug 23  Ukraine claimed to have made a successful drone attack against a Russian S-400 missile defense base in Crimea. The S-400 surface to air missile has a 250-mile range and can simultaneously hit multiple targets. An overnight Russian drone attack struck targets in Odesa, destroying some 14,300 tons of grain.  

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 Author’s comment, August 23, 2023 It may be of interest to my readers with Buffalo Seminary connections that since late October 2022, Mona Fetouh, Class of 1990, has been Chief of Evaluation for UNICEF in Kyiv. UNICEF is the United Nations Children's Fund. I asked her for an update on UNICEF’s work in Ukraine. 

In short, UNICEF continues its humanitarian work in the frontline areas in concert with the UN and other civil society partners. It is also involved in the country’s future reconstruction.  “This is the phase after a crisis of rebuilding, focusing not just on repairing damaged buildings, but also on rebuilding systems, services, human capital etc.” 

Mona’s office participated in the World Bank’s Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment which estimates that as of now the overall cost of rebuilding the economic and social assets of Ukraine will cost some $411 billion and take ten years. 

UNICEF, she writes, “is doing both humanitarian and development work, while the context is quite uncertain! Another issue on everyone's mind is Ukraine's aspirations to join the EU. It obtained candidate country status last year and is now on a long path of reforms to be in line with EU standards across all sectors. So part of the recovery work is to assist with these reforms. In the case of UNICEF, this really helps our work because European standards for education, de-institutionalization etc.  are very much in line with our own standards for children.”

Mona’s work has taken her beyond Kyiv to other parts of the country. “I did manage to go to Dnipro last month and visited Zaphorzhzhia and Kharkiv, so that's as close as I've gotten to the frontline. You can definitely see more damage in those areas and access to services is much tougher in frontline areas overall. Across the country the missile and drone strikes do indeed impact education - many schools don't have adequate shelters, which is a requirement to open, so a third of children are still learning online only, and another third are doing a hybrid of online and in person. It's definitely affected learning, and children in the frontline areas don't always even have access to online learning. So that's a big area we (UNICEF) are supporting.”

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Aug 23  Russian media reported that a private aircraft alleged to belong to Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin crashed near the town of Kuzhenkino northwest of Moscow.  The plane, an Embraer Legacy 600 business jet, was on a flight from Moscow to St. Petersburg.  Ten persons were killed in the crash, three flight crew and seven passengers. Prigozhin's name was on the passenger list, but there was no immediate official confirmation that he was on the plane.  Russia later confirmed that Prigozhin had been killed.   Also confirmed dead were Dmitry Utkin and Valery Chekalov. Utkin, along with Prigozhin, founded the Wagner Group in 2014. Chekalov served as Wagner’s logistics chief, managing mercenaries, securing weapons, and running the oil, gas and mineral businesses in Syria and Africa. The other four passengers were also Wagner officials. 

There was speculation that Russian air defense purposely shot down the plane.  Russian media shared video showing what witnesses claimed to be a missile striking the plane causing it to fall to earth in a fiery crash.  It's more likely that the plane was destroyed by a bomb planted aboard in Moscow. President Putin, then on a visit to Kursk, did not comment on the matter.  

On Aug 24 Putin delivered a televised statement of condolence. “First of all, I want to express my sincere condolences to the families of all the victims, this is always a tragedy. Indeed, if they were there, it seems … preliminary information suggests that Wagner Group employees were also on board,” Speaking about Prigozhin, Putin acknowledged that he had known the Wagner leader “for a very long time,” and that he was “a talented man, a talented businessman.” .... “He was a man of difficult fate, and he made serious mistakes in life, and he achieved the results needed both for himself and when I asked him about it – for a common cause, as in these last months." (quotation source: New Yok Post)

(author's comment: There is much here we don't know and may never learn. Why would the key Wagner officers all be on a single plane flying from Moscow to St. Petersburg?  Knowing Putin as he did, why would Prigozhin not be wary of treachery?  He was treacherous himself. Did he really believe Putin would not take some action against him for the June 23-24 mutiny? In an author's comment on June 24, I wrote, "It is doubtful Putin will indeed honor any promises of amnesty. Prigozhin tried to overthrow his government by armed force.  It is certain that Prigozhin will be hunted down, arrested, and killed."  Well, this comes pretty close, doesn't it?) 

Aug 24  The 32nd Ukrainian Independence Day began with Russian drone strikes on Dnipro and Kherson.  Several injuries and one death were initially reported in the attacks on civilian infrastructure in both cities.  President Volodymyr Zelenskyy presided at ceremonies in Kyiv. The Presidents of Lithuania and Portugal attended the ceremony, delivering speeches in the Ukrainian language.  The President of Bosnia Herzegovina and the Prime Minister of Norway were also in attendance.  

Speaking forcefully, Zelenskyy celebrated Ukraine's freedom and commitment to its future.  "We remember what the Ukrainian people went through. We see the threats. We are fighting the enemy. And we know what we are capable of. We are capable of winning! And we will prevail! Ukrainian children in Ukrainian squares and streets will celebrate Ukrainian independence in the same way. Our grandchildren will celebrate. And their grandchildren. Together with the friends of our state. With Ukraine's allies and partners. The ones Ukraine will choose for itself. Always freely. And there will never be any more pauses in Ukrainian history...We will give Ukraine the strength it needs to always prevail. And we will be tough on anyone who tries to undermine, trade, or weaken Ukraine's power from within. And there will be appropriate legislative initiatives. In the near future." (quotation source: Yahoo!News)

Aug 24  Norway announced it would donate F-16s to Ukraine, becoming the third country, after Denmark and the Netherlands, to pledge to fulfill Kyiv’s longstanding request for jets which it says will strengthen its air defenses against Russia.

Aug 25  The leaders of the international group known as BRICS  (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) met in Johannesburg, South Africa, for their annual summit meeting.  What is BRICS? See July 19 above.  With a warrant for his arrest from the International Criminal Court, Russian President Putin did not attend and was represented by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.  The group meets to consider common economic interests and development.  However, as these concerns cannot be separated from political considerations, BRICS has global political implications as well. The significance of this meeting is that Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Ethiopia, have been admitted to the group. This will enhance China's influence in the Middle East, a part of the world that provides the West with much of its oil. President Xi Jinping's address to the assembly was predictably critical of US policy, claiming the US seeks global hegemony. 

Aug 26  Ukraine reported that Russian artillery struck civilian areas near the northeastern city of Kupiansk, killing two and inuring others.  The Kupiansk region was occupied early in the 2022 Russian invasion but was recaptured by Ukrainian forces in September.  The region, however, remains a battlefront, and Ukraine issued orders for the mandatory evacuation of some 12,000 civilians.  It's believed that Russia is intensifying offensive efforts in the Kupiansk and Lyman areas to take pressure off its forces in the Bakhmut and Zaporizhzhia regions where the Ukrainian offensive has been primarily directed. 

Aug 26 Ukraine’s foreign ministry condemned as “unacceptable” restrictions on imports of Ukrainian grain by several EU members. (See July 20 above.) "Such unilateral restrictions do not correspond to the spirit and letter of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU and the principles and norms of the EU single market … Only in the spirit of solidarity can we counter the challenges caused by Russian aggression against Ukraine and strengthen the EU Single Market." (quotation source: The Guardian) 

In response to a US request that Iran stop selling Shahed -136 "kamikaze" drones to Russia, Iranian defense ministry spokesperson Reza Talaei-Nik said: “None of the transactions [regarding drones] that we have had ... with other countries, such as Russia, have been cancelled." Russian Deputy Defense Minister Sergei Ryabkov stated, “... cooperation with Iran will continue, .... We are independent states and do not succumb to the dictates of the United States and its satellites." (quotation source: The Guardian)  In the past Russia has denied it uses Iranian drones in Ukraine, and Iran has claimed that any Iranian drones used in the war were sold to Russia before the 2022 war.  (author's comment: The Russian-Iran relationship was strengthened by the admission of Iran to BRICS on August 25th.)  

Aug 27 In an interview with CNN, Moldovan President Maia Sandu appealed to the international community for continued support for Ukraine. It was on Aug 27, 1991, that Moldova declared its independence from the USSR, and Sandu sees the invasion of Ukraine as the first step in Putin’s intent to bring the former Soviet republics back under Russian control. If Ukraine falls, Moldova is next. “There are the Russian troops which are stationed illegally in the Transnistrian region. And of course, this is how the Russian authorities are trying to influence things in the Republic of Moldova.” (The Russian presence in Transnistria is explained above. See April 18-21, 2022.)  Earlier in July, Moldova ordered the expulsion of 45 Russian diplomats, accusing Russia of installing electronic intelligence gathering equipment atop its Embassy and encouraging Moldovan opposition to the government. Russia had previously expelled several Moldovan diplomats. “When people from Russia try to overthrow a democratically elected government, this is a very clear sign that there is no respect for this country,” she said.  

Moldova has sought membership in the European Union and has been granted candidate status. Full membership is dependent on Moldova’s making reforms consistent with the EU’s political, economic, and social standards. President Sandu noted that the transition to EU expectations “it’s a long process” and acknowledged “we still have corrupt judges and corrupt prosecutors who do not want our reforms to succeed,” but she emphasized that “Moldova’s democracy will be preserved when Moldova becomes an EU member state.” (quotations source: CNN)

Aug 28 The news service POLITICO reported that on Aug 25 in a televised address to an assembly of Catholic Russian youth, Pope Francis praised Russia's imperialist past. “You are the heirs of the great Russia: the great Russia of saints, of kings, the great Russia of Peter the Great, of Catherine II, of that great, enlightened Russian empire, of great culture and great humanity" (author's snide remark: That's seven greats in one sentence.) “Never give up this legacy, you are the heirs of the great Mother Russia, go forward with it.” ... "Thank you for your way of being Russian.” While the Pope did urge Russian youth to be  “artisans of peace” and to “sow seeds of reconciliations,” he did seem to be overlooking that the "enlightened Russian empire" included the conquest and domination of Ukraine.  (quotations source, POLITICO)    In a statement posted on the Russian news service TASS, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov wrote, “The Kremlin welcomes the words of the Pope of Rome about the legacy of great Russia, it is good that the pontiff knows Russian history.”  (quotation source: CNBC)  The Vatican issued a statement that it was not the Pope's intention to glorify Russian imperialism. 

Aug 29 The Pentagon announced that the United States will begin flight training for Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets in October. The training is set to take place at the Morris Air National Guard Base in Tucson, Arizona, once the pilots receive English-language training. ("The Pentagon" identifies the US Department of Defense and is in reference to the department's headquarters in Arlington, VA.)  

Aug 29   In an interview with Tucker Carlson on X (formerly Twitter) Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said that "the only way out" of the war in Ukraine was to "call back Trump." ..."Trump is the man who can save the Western world."  (quotation source: San Diego Tribune) (author's comment: So there, now you know.)

Aug 30  Both Ukraine and Russia reported large-scale drone and rocket attacks at targets in both countries.  Ukrainian air defense claimed to have destroyed all of the 28 cruise missiles and 15 of the 16 drones aimed at Kyiv and other cities. At least two persons were killed in Kyiv.  Moscow vowed Ukraine will "not go unpunished" for missile strikes aimed at military targets in Pskov and Sebastopol.  At Pskov four military transport planes, a fuel depot, and a microelectronics factory were hit. 

Aug 31 The defense ministers of Poland and South Korea, meeting in Warsaw, agreed to continue arms support for Ukraine.  Poland purchases Korean-made armaments and has been providing weapons for Ukraine's war against Russia.  It's important to Poland that Russia's attention be focused on Ukraine rather than  Poland.  The Korean-made weapons will help keep Ukraine in the fight.  The Wagner Group's presence in Belarus and recent Russian and Belarusian military training exercises near the border with Poland caused Poland to increase its military presence along the Belarusian border.  Poland fears that Belarus, with Russian encouragement and support, will attempt to seize the strategic Polish Suwałki Corridor. (See July 23 and Aug 7 above.) 

Aug 31 Russian high school students return to classes on Sept. 1.  The curriculum for grade 11 (students aged 17-18) includes a new Russian history textbook. (Grade 11 in Russian schools is the equivalent of the senior year for US students.) The book is also being distributed to schools in the Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine, those territories "annexed" to Russia in 2022.  One of the authors, former Minister of Culture Vladimir Medinsky, stated that  "the section about the period from the 1970s until the 2000s has been completely reworked,"... "a section has been added that covers the period from 2014 to the present".... "And, of course, there is a separate chapter devoted to and justifying Putin's 'special military operation'..."  (Readers are reminded that the "special military operation" is the Russian invasion of Ukraine.) The chapter repeats Putin's claims that Ukraine is an "'ultranationalist' and 'neo-Nazi' state; that Kyiv is controlled by the West, which seeks to dismember Russia and steal its natural resources; that NATO advisers pushed Kyiv to 'attack the Donbas' in 2020; that 'strictly secret' U.S. 'biolaboratories' were created in Ukraine; that Kyiv has been 'aggressively' seeking to acquire nuclear weapons; and more." (quotations source: Radio Free Europe)  (author's comment: Nothing new here. Authoritarian regimes use education to further strengthen and consolidate their control. The boys in these classes are eligible for military conscription at age 18. Those who do not qualify for higher education may find themselves part of the "special military operation." And, need we be reminded that even in democracies, education can be used and manipulated to serve political ends.  There are those among the US population and state governments who seek the banning of books in schools and changes in how African-American history is taught.)  

Sept 1 marks Knowledge Day, the beginning of the academic year in Russia.  Across the country (and in the Russian occupied regions of Ukraine) Russian youth are returning to their schools and universities. We have seen above (Aug 31) that a new Russian history textbook is included in the 11th grade high school curriculum, a book that justifies Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In a video message telecast in schools and universities across Russia, President Putin praised Russia's Soviet past.  It was a time when "we lived in one single country " and were "absolutely invincible".... “I realized why we won the Great Patriotic War,” (World  War II) .... “It was impossible to defeat such a nation with such a spirit. We were absolutely invincible. And we are like that now.” Introduced in Russian schools in 2022 are compulsory weekly sessions called "Conversations About Important Things" in which teachers present the official position in  "important" matters, such as Russia's war against the "neo-Nazis" who rule Ukraine. New in school curriculum will be  “Fundamentals of Life Safety" for grades 5 through 11.  In this course high school students will get basic military training, learn about weapons and drones, and have military drills. Next year, the new “Fundamentals of Security and Defense of the Motherland” course will include more military content, as determined by the Ministry of Defense.  (quotations source: The Washington Post)

Sept 2 Among the conditions for membership in both the European Union and NATO are demonstrated commitments by candidate nations to the elimination of corruption in all areas of national life. In Ukraine President Zelenskyy had pledged to fight corruption in his 2019 campaign for president and remains committed to that pledge, despite the priority and demands of the war. On Sept 2 Ukrainian businessman Ihor Kolomoisky was arrested for fraud. A billionaire oligarch and staunch Zelenskyy supporter, Kolomoisky made his fortune in both media and banking.  In 2021 he was sanctioned by the US State Department for alleged involvement in “corrupt acts that undermined rule of law and the Ukrainian public’s faith in their government’s democratic institutions and public processes, including using his political influence and official power for his personal benefit.”  A trial is scheduled for October. Bail is set at $14 million and places severe restrictions on Kolomoisky's freedom of movement. (quotation source: CNN) 

Sept 3 Perhaps continuing his crackdown on corruption but more likely for strategic reasons, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced the dismissal of Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov. Reznikov had been overseeing Ukraine’s war since the Russian invasion in 2022.  Under Ukrainian law, his dismissal is subject to approval by the national parliament. The seeming stagnation of the offensive and corruption within the higher ranks of the defense ministry are among the justifications for change at the top. In August Zelenskyy fired several regional defense officials for taking bribes from men attempting to avoid conscription. Also fired and arrested was the head of military recruitment in Odesa, charged with illegally taking military funds to buy a villa and cars. 

Zelenskyy intends to appoint Rustem Umerov as Minister of Defense. Umerov has headed the cabinet level State Property Fund since 2022 and has been lauded for rooting out corruption within that body. Speaking Turkish, he has served in key diplomatic missions with Turkey, namely negotiating prisoner exchanges and the Black Sea Grain Initiative in 2022. As he was born a Crimean Tatar, Umerov has been an active humanitarian champion of Tatar rights in Russian-dominated Crimea and elsewhere. (Tatar refers to those Turkic ethnic populations of northern and central Asia once ruled by the Mongol Empire.) Umerov’s Crimean ancestry also signals Russia of Ukraine’s intent to liberate the region.  (Remember, this Ukraine-Russian war actually began in 2014 with the Russian invasion and annexation of Crimea.) Umerov’s appointment as Defense Minister is subject to the parliament’s approval.

Sept 4  Meeting in the Russian Black Sea resort city of Sochi, Turkish President Recep Erdogan conferred with Russian President Putin on matters of mutual concern.  (Their meeting had been originally scheduled for August in Ankara, the Turkish capital.)  Relations between the two leaders had historically been mutually supportive, but Erdogan had recently shown surprising accommodation of Western interests.  In a July 8 meeting with Zelenskyy in Ankara, he stated that Ukraine "deserved" NATO membership. He also allowed five Ukrainian POWs (prisoners of war), captured by the Russians in Mariupol and being detained in Turkey, to return to Ukraine, an action that caused Russia to accuse Turkey of violating policy regarding third-party detention of POWs.  At the July NATO conference he stated that Turkey would not object to Sweden becoming a NATO member. (See July 11,12 above.)  However, Turkey remains independent of other joint actions taken by Ukraine's allies.  It does not honor NATO and EU sanctions imposed on Russia and continues its trade relationships with Russia.  Turkey has held Candidate Membership in the EU since 1999, but meeting the qualifications for full membership have proved difficult, compounded by issues with Greece and Cyprus. 

Most of what was discussed in Sochi remains confidential.  Publicly, Putin stressed the benefits of the Russian relationship with Turkey.  Cut off from traveling to Western Europe, Russian tourists are now making Turkey a travel venue. Russia has eased payment requirements regarding Turkish import of Russian natural gas.  Russia is building a new nuclear power in Turkey. Erdogan expressed interest in building another.  The Turkish and Russian delegations included their central bank chiefs, suggesting more trade in their national currencies instead of in US dollars. The presence of Dmitri Shugayev, head of the Russian Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation, indicated Russian interest in mutual military matters. The major issue that was not resolved was Erdogan's seeking to renew the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI). He had played a major part in negotiating the BSGI with the UN, Russia, and Ukraine in 2022, and considered its operation his crowning diplomatic achievement. 

Sept 6  The New York Times reported that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un plans to meet with Russian President Putin at the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) in Vladivostok, Russia, September 10 -13. (North Korea, officially the People's Democratic Republic of Korea, is a hard-line Communist dictatorship that since 1953 has been under the rule of three generations of the Kim family.)  The EEF, founded in 2015, is a Russian-sponsored annual conference which encourages international investment in Russia's Far East. Participating nations vary but all have active commercial interests in the greater region. Russia's war with Ukraine has negatively affected Russian business activity with such nations as South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, causing Russia to seek closer business ties with China and North Korea. Beyond the commercial, Putin's meeting with Kim has military implications.  Russia needs armaments, namely artillery ammunition and antitank missiles.  North Korea can provide these, although much of it is older Soviet-era weaponry.  In return Kim wants Russian technology for satellites and the building of nuclear submarines.  While not a priority for Kim, much of his country is starving and Russian foodstuffs will be part of any exchange agreement.  (The name Kim Jong Un?  In Korea, as in China, the family name comes before the given/birth name.)

(author's comment: It's important that readers understand that the fighting and Russian drone and rocket attacks across Ukraine are continuing even if I do not report on them.) 

Sept 6   In what has been the most devastating attack in months, Russian artillery smashed into a crowded open air market in the city of Kostiantynivka, killing 17, including a child, and injuring another 32. Kostiantynivka is an industrial city in the Donbas region of Donetsk.  Its pre-war population was 67,000. The attack came as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Kyiv for two days of meetings with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and Foreign Minister Dmitro Kubela.  

Blinken traveled by armored train overnight from Poland.  Just prior to his arrival, Kyiv had experienced a Russian missile attack. The Secretary's visit had not been publicly announced.  Meeting with Zelenskyy and Kubela, Blinken assured "We are determined in the United States to continue to walk side-by-side with you."...."President Biden asked me to come to reaffirm strongly our support." During an evening  press conference with Kuleba, Blinken confirmed previous reports that the United States would commit over $1 billion in new aid to Ukraine. Blinken ticked through the itemized list of expenditures, highlighting what he called "significant support for Ukraine's air defenses," as well as funding to restore order in liberated areas. (quotation source, ABC News)  This package included new security assistance worth up to $175 million that would include needed ammunition for Abrams tanks as well as equipment for defusing unexploded land mines. 

Sept 7  In what has become an almost daily overnight occurrence, Russia launched widespread drone attacks against the Danube port cities of Izmail and Odesa and the northern region of Sumy.  Ukrainian air defense claimed to have shot down 25 of the 33 drones.  Russia claimed that it intercepted and destroyed Ukrainian drones aimed at Moscow and Rostov-on-Don. Neither country reported anyone killed in the attacks. 

Sept 9  Unlike 2022, the war in Ukraine was not a high-priority agenda item for the annual Group of Twenty (G 20) summit meeting, Sept 9 -10.  Hosted by President Narendra Modi of India, the leaders of the world's twenty richest states met in New Delhi.  (See July 8, 2022 for an explanation of the G 20.) While both Russia and China are G 20 members, their presidents (Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping) did not attend but were represented by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Chinese Premier Li Qiang.  The agenda for the summit focused on developing nations, a trend pushed by Modi. 

The G 20 announced agreement on the international development of an India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, a massive railroad transport system.  “This landmark corridor is expected to stimulate economic development through enhanced connectivity and economic integration across two continents, thus unlocking sustainable and inclusive economic growth,” the White House said in a statement. (quotation source: The Hill)

Partners on the project signed a memorandum of understanding, committing to the linkage of commercial centers with rail lines, bolstered by  extensions of new internet and electrical power systems. The memorandum also says the project will link with industry in Jordan and Israel, a step that appears to symbolize efforts to bring Saudi Arabia and Israel closer together.  “Participants intend that the corridor will increase efficiencies, reduce costs, enhance economic unity, generate jobs, and lower greenhouse gas emissions, resulting in a transformative integration of Asia, Europe and the Middle East,” the memorandum reads. (quotation source, The Hill)  (Speaking of greenhouse gas emissions, the G 20 adopted a resolution to triple renewal energy, but took no action to reduce coal-burning carbon emissions.)  Also problematic is that the proposed economic corridor would require the participation of Pakistan and Iran, states lying between India the Middle East. Pakistan and India have on-going issues regarding boundaries, and Iran sees the Western G 20 states as ideological and spiritual enemies.  (author's comment: In contrast to his active role at the Nov. 2022 G 20 summit, US President Biden's involvement seemed more that of an observer than active participant.  The New York Times reported his primary attention was in "nurturing his relationship with Narendra Modi."  Biden did comment that "it would be nice" if Putin and Xi were at the meeting.)

The G 20 has become the G 21.  As does the European Union, the African Union will hold a membership seat.  Initially requested by US President Biden in December 2022, adding the African Union has been a popular among G 20 members.  Previously, only South Africa had held membership. African Union membership allows the continent to be better represented on matters of the economy, climate, health policy and national security. The African Union includes membership of every country on the continent and will be represented at the G 21 by its chairman, Comoros President Azali Assoumani. (See July 8, 2022 above.)

Ukraine?  In its closing declaration, the G 20 / G 21, without mentioning Russia, simply said,  “All states must refrain from the threat or use of force to seek territorial acquisition” and noted that among the G 20 membership “there were different views and assessments of the situation” (a sop to Russia and China) in Ukraine.  (quotation source: CNN News)  In response, the Ukrainian foreign ministry said that the G 20 declaration was “nothing to be proud of."  (quotation source: Reuters)   (author's comment: This represents quite a change in position.  Seeing the war as a global threat to international economic well-being, the final declaration of the G 20 meeting in Bali in November 2022 deplored "in the strongest terms the aggression by the Russian Federation against Ukraine and demands its complete and unconditional withdrawal from the territory of Ukraine.”  See Nov. 16, 2022 above.)

Sept 12  In remarks made at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Russian President Putin commented that Ukraine’s four-month long counteroffensive has produced no results and cost 71, 500 of its soldiers. Western pledges to provide F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, he added, will do no more than prolong the conflict. He then praised Russia’s response to the demands of the war.  The Sept. 2022 partial mobilization order, he said, has yielded some 570,000 new recruits for military service. "We have carried out partial mobilization. Three hundred thousand people were called up. Now, over the past 6-7 months, 270,000 people have voluntarily signed contracts to serve in the armed forces and volunteer units. This process continues” …. "This is what distinguishes the Russian people, Russian society. I don't know if this is possible in any other country or not. People deliberately enroll in military service, realizing that they will ultimately end up at the front" …. "And our men, Russian men, understanding what awaits them, understanding that they can give their lives for their homeland or get seriously wounded, they still do it consciously and voluntarily." (quotation source: Newsweek) (author’s comment: There is no way we can determine the accuracy of these figures. Putin will say what he wants the world to hear.)

Sept 13 We've seen above (Sept 6) that a meeting of Russian President Putin with North Korean "Supreme Leader" Kim Jong-Un was anticipated to take place in Vladivostok. Instead, the two leaders met at the Vostochny Сosmodrome, Russia's premier space launch facility, some 930 miles to the north. The site was most likely chosen to impress Kim with Russian space achievement; something that interests Kim greatly. Among Kim's goals for the meeting is to secure Russian assistance in developing long-range ballistic missiles, military reconnaissance satellites, and nuclear submarines.  Putin wants North Korean arms and ammunition to bolster Russian forces in Ukraine.  North Korea has stockpiled a huge arsenal of Soviet-era weapons and ammunition. In a dinner toast Kim stated, "We are confident that the Russian army and people will win a great victory in the just fight to punish evil groups who pursue hegemony, expansion, and ambition." He also praised the "heroic" Russian army.  When later questioned about Russia's having earlier signed on to UN sanctions of arms deals with North Korea, Putin responded that Russia "complies with international obligations, but within the framework of the rules there are opportunities for cooperation." He did not go into detail about any "opportunities for cooperation" discussed with Kim.  (quotations source: CBS News)

(author's comment: Readers are reminded that North Korea and South Korea are both in a state of war that has lasted since 1953 when, following the Korean War (1950 - 1953), fighting was ended by a United Nations monitored truce, in place ever since.  They are separated by a UN-monitored De-Militarized Zone stretching across the Korean Peninsula. Both countries seek the unification of Korea and claim the territory of the other as rightfully theirs.  South Korea is a democracy allied with the US and other democratic states. North Korea is a communist totalitarian dictatorship with close ties to Russia and China.  North Korea has nuclear weapons and is constantly conducting tests of missile systems. In fact, just hours before Kim and Putin met, North Korea test fired two ballistic missiles some 400 miles over the Sea of Japan.  North Korea claims it has long-range ballistic missile capable of reaching the US.)  

Sept 12-13  Overnight the Russian naval base at Sevastopol in Crimea was struck by an air and sea drone attack. In addition to port infrastructure, two warships were reported damaged, and 24 persons were reported injured. Russia claims to have shot down seven missiles and sunk all the sea drones. As is usual, Ukraine did not acknowledge responsibility for the attack.  However, Mykola Oleschuk, commander of Ukraine’s Air Forces, thanked his pilots for their “excellent combat work” on the Telegram app, as he said “the occupiers” were still recovering in Sevastopol. “More to come,” Oleschuk added.

Romania reported fragments of Russian drones have been found inside its Danube border with Ukraine.  Russian drone attacks against the port of Izmail have been frequent as Russia attempts to disrupt Ukraine's Black Sea shipping. 

Sept 14 The US Treasury and State departments announced new sets of sanctions on Russian businesses, political entities, and designated individuals.  Sanctions are "measures taken by a nation to coerce another to conform to an international agreement or norms of conduct, typically in the form of restrictions on trade." (author's comment: AI told me this!)   

Among the 70 businesses sanctioned by the Treasury Dept. is State Corporation Rostec – “a massive Russian government-owned conglomerate of defense, aerospace, automobile, and metal industries, seen as the "foundation of Russia's military-industrial base."  Not all the sanctioned businesses are in Russia. Targeted was a Finland-based transport system that ships foreign electronics to Russia and two Turkish companies that are linked to shipments of equipment used to make drones and cruise missiles.

Rachel Rizzo, speaking for the Atlantic Council's European Center, commented that “If we can cut off their ability to export, import, sell, buy in these different sectors that then help Russia fund and continue to wage war against Ukraine, then that significantly decreases Russia’s ability to do so,” However, she noted that she does not believe “that any of the sanctions that we are implementing are meant to deter Russia in the very near term.”  The Treasury Dept. also sanctioned officials of the Russian-installed governments in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions annexed by Russia in 2022. 

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced State Department sanctions on 45 entities and 29 individuals, and moved to impose visa restrictions “on 511 Russian military officers for threatening or violating Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, or political independence, in connection with Russia’s unprovoked and unjustified war against Ukraine,” and “on 18 Russian nationals in relation to suppression of dissent, including politically motivated detentions.”  Among those individuals sanctioned were 19 members of the Rostec board of directors, nine of their spouses or adult children."  “The Department of State is also designating certain Russian military units that have been credibly implicated in human rights abuses or violations of international humanitarian law as part of our commitment to promote accountability for atrocities in Ukraine,” Blinken said in his statement. The State Department also sanctioned Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) for its role in human rights abuses in the war, including its reported involvement in Russia’s so-called filtration camps. (filtration camps? See mid-April 2022.)  (quotations source: CNN News)

(author's comment:  All of these sanctions are meaningless unless the sanctioned businesses and individuals engage with countries willing to enforce them.  If a sanctioned individual were to travel to, say, France, French authorities could arrest that person, if they so desire. If a Russian aerospace business attempts to purchase technical equipment from Canada, it's up to Canada to decide to deny that purchase. Russia can also conduct business through a third country.  For example, let's say Canada sells widgets to Guatemala. Guatemala then sells the widgets to Russia. What's a widget?  Look it up.)

Sept 17 In a unexpected stance on the war, four Republican Senators sent a letter to President Biden calling for the US to send additional missiles to Ukraine. Unexpected as there is concern among Congressional Republicans that the war in Ukraine is costing US tax payers billions of dollars for a war that shows no signs of ending. The letter urges Biden to authorize sending MGM 140 Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to Ukraine.  The MGM-140s have a range of 190 miles and are fired from mobile launchers.  Biden had been hesitant about sending additional missiles as he had been advised that the supply was low. “We … urge you to immediately send MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to Ukraine,” the lawmakers wrote. “Additional delay will only further undermine U.S. national security interests and extend this conflict.” The letter reminds the President that “The U.S. is fully capable of providing these weapons without any appreciable risk to its own combat capability. Ukraine has significantly degraded Russian combat power and only requires a small portion of our stockpiled ATACMS.  Further, the U.S. has the capability to produce hundreds of ATACMS and Precision Strike Missiles a year and replenish its inventory in the near term.” (quotation source: The Hill) 

Sept 19 With less than optimistic words United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres opened the 78th annual session of the General Assembly. Warning of an impending "Great Fracture," "Drop by drop, the poison of war is infecting our world."  Existing multi-national organizations are no longer up to the task of maintaining peace and progress in a changing world.  Even the UN Security Council is no longer up to the task of effective peacekeeping. “The alternative to reform is not the status quo. The alternative to reform is further fragmentation,” he said. “It’s reform or rupture.”  Of the UN's 193 member states, the leaders of 145 are attending the meeting at the UN headquarters in New York. Other than President Biden, the leaders of the other four permanent Security Council members are not. Putin (Russia), Xi (China) have not attended in the past, but British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and French President Emmanuel Macron have, but not this year. (Both Sunak and Macron are preoccupied with King Charles III's visit to France.)  Ukraine's President Zelenskyy is attending in person. Last year he addressed the UN meeting by video. 

While also addressing global issues such as climate change, Biden chastised Russia.  "We strongly support Ukraine in its efforts to bring about a diplomatic resolution that delivers just and lasting peace," ... "But Russia alone, Russia alone bears responsibility for this war. Russia alone has the power to end this war immediately. And it's Russia alone that stands in the way of peace because the Russians' price for peace is Ukraine's capitulation, Ukraine's territory and Ukraine's children."

"Russia believes that the world will grow weary and allow it to brutalize Ukraine without consequence. But I ask you this: If we abandon the core principles of the United States to appease an aggressor, can any member state in this body feeling confident that they are protected? If we allow Ukraine to be carved up, is the independence of any nation secure?" (quotation source: CBS News)

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke later, warning "that Russia is 'weaponizing' everything from food and energy to abducted children in its war against Ukraine — and he warned world leaders that the same could happen to them.".... “When hatred is weaponized against one nation, it never stops there," he said. “The goal of the present war against Ukraine is to turn our land, our people, our lives, our resources into weapons against you — against the international rules-based order.”

The war in Ukraine has deepened major global supply disruptions caused by the pandemic, driving a huge spike in food and energy prices, jolting the global economy and increasing hardship in many developing countries.

Decades-old energy supply channels to Europe from Russia, a major oil and gas producer, were halted or severely disrupted by the war due to sanctions, trade disputes, pipeline shutoffs and a major push by Western countries to find alternative sources. Both Russia and Ukraine also are major grain exporters, and Russia withdrew this past summer from a deal that allowed shipments of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea. 

Zelenskyy's speech highlighted the Russian kidnapping of tens of thousands of children. “What will happen to them?” .... "Those children in Russia are taught to hate Ukraine, and all ties with their families are broken. And this is clearly a genocide.” (Readers are reminded that the International Criminal Court has called for Putin's arrest for crimes against humanity, namely the abduction of Ukrainian children.) 

As Zelenskyy spoke, Russia's Deputy UN Ambassador Dmitry Polyansky sat in Russia’s seat. “Did he speak?” Polyansky said with a wry smile when an Associated Press reporter asked about his reaction to the address. “I didn’t notice he was speaking. I was on my phone.” (quotations source: ABC News)

Sept 20  Zelenskyy was invited to address the UN Security Council.  The Council member for Russia, Ambassador Vasily Nebenzia, protested, but was overruled by the Albanian Prime Minister, Edi Rama.  Albania currently holds the Security Council presidency, and Rama, as head of the Albanian government, was holding that seat for the day's meeting. In response to Nebenzia, Rama said, "I want to assure our Russian colleagues and everyone here that this is not a special operation by the Albanian presidency" (a humorous gibe at Putin's invasion as a "special military operation"). "There is a solution for this," Rama continued. "If you agree, you stop the war and President Zelenskyy will not take the floor."  Nebenzia went on to say the session was a show and criticized Rama for what he said was a political stance rather than an act of a neutral guardian of procedure.  

Prior to Zelenskyy's speaking, UN Secretary-General Gutteres addressed the Council, reminding the body that Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine was “in clear violation of the United Nations Charter and international law.” The war “is aggravating geopolitical tensions and divisions, threatening regional stability, increasing the nuclear threat and creating deep fissures in our increasingly multipolar world."  He again condemned the war and repeated his call for “a just and sustainable peace in Ukraine in line with the U.N. Charter and international law — for Ukraine, for Russia and for the world.” (quotation source: Associated Press)  

Zelenskyy's speech to the  Council appealed for UN to defend Ukraine and called for reform of the veto power. (The UN Charter gives the Council's five permanent members - The US, Britain, France, China, and Russia - the power to veto any action the body approves. See chapter 24 section 5.) (quotations source: Reuters)  The invasion, he said, is “a criminal and unprovoked aggression by Russia against our nation aimed at Ukraine’s territory and resources.”  “But it’s not just that.”  “The terrorist state is willing, through its aggression, to undermine all the grounds of international norms meant to protect the world from the wars.”  Because Russia could veto any UN concerted action against Russia, he called for charter reforms that might allow the 193-member General Assembly to overrule or suspend a Security Council veto by an aggressor power. He also reiterated "two key concrete steps to ensure Ukraine’s future security: a complete withdrawal of all Russian troops, mercenaries and military and paramilitary 'formations,' and ships, from Ukraine’s internationally recognized territory and its Black Sea waters. That step would be followed by 'full restoration” of Ukrainian control' over the entire state border and exclusive economic zone.” “Only the implementation of these two points will result in an honest, reliable and complete cessation of hostilities.   To avoid a verbal clash, Zelenskyy left the Council chamber before Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov took the floor. (quotations source: Associated Press) 

Sept 19 During its monthly meeting the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) inaugurated the IT (Information Technology) Coalition. The 20-nation IT Coalition was the creation of the defense ministers of Ukraine, Estonia, and Luxembourg. “The key outcome of the IT Coalition is the establishment of a single command and control and defense resource management digital ecosystem for the (Ukrainian) Defense Forces that will support better coordination and more effective Defense forces engagement and employment of capabilities provided by partner nations.” (quotation source: Global Security. Com)

Sept 21  Poland announced that it will no longer send arms to Ukraine.  Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki stated that “We no longer transfer weapons to Ukraine because we are now arming Poland.”.... “If you want to defend yourself you have to have something to defend with." This comes as a disturbing change as Poland had been a major supplier of weapons as well as the first NATO member to send fighter jets and tanks to Ukraine. And most of the military supplies being sent by other countries are transported to Ukraine across Poland.  There are also some two million Ukrainians in Poland, refugees from the 2022 Russian invasion.

Why this change in policy?  Polish government spokesman Piotr Muller made reference to remarks by Ukrainian President Zelenskyy in his address to the UN General Assembly. Speaking in regard to Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary's ban on agricultural products from Ukraine, Zelenskyy stated that such policies are aiding Russia. “It is alarming to see how some in Europe, some of our friends in Europe, play out solidarity in a political theater – making a thriller from the grain.”  They “may seem to play their own role but in fact they are helping set the stage to a Moscow actor.” From Poland's point of the view, those comments hurt. (See April 12 above for an explanation of the issue over Ukrainian agricultural exports.)

Polish President Andrzej Duda later qualified that Poland will continue those arms shipments to Ukraine that have already been authorized for export. There will be no new weapons shipments.

Poland is also facing an October 15 general election in which right wing nationalist political parties are making gains in the polls. Prime Minister Morawiecki's ruling Law and Justice Party is being criticized for making Ukraine a priority over Poland's own interests and well-being and may lose its majority in the Polish Parliament.

Overnight Sept 21-22  Multiple waves of Russian cruise missiles slammed into Kyiv and Kharkiv. Ukrainian air defense claimed to have shot down 36 of the 43 missiles, 20 of them over Kyiv.  There were numerous injuries among the civilian populations, in many cases caused by falling debris. It was the heaviest attack since August. 

Zelenskyy moved on from New York to Washington where he met with President Biden and Congressional leaders. While Biden reassured Zelenskyy of continued American support, Speaker of the House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy denied Zelenskyy's request to address a joint session of Congress, claiming that there was not time to organize such a meeting. Instead, Zelenskyy met with smaller groups of Senators and Congressmen. Biden intends to ask Congress to approve new $20 billion aid package to Ukraine and numerous Republicans are reluctant to support it. They see that despite all the assistance, Ukraine's inability to break the Russian lines is a troubling sign that the war could go on for years.   (Readers are reminded that Republicans hold the majority of seats in the House while Democrats hold a narrow majority in the Senate. Spending requires the approval of both houses.)  Biden assured the Ukrainian President the US would deliver long-range MGM 140 Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS)  and Stinger missiles to Ukraine. How many of these weapons was not specified. 

After his Washington meetings, Zelenskyy flew to Ottawa where he was warmly welcomed by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. In contrast to his experience in meeting with leading US congressmen, the Ukrainian President addressed the Canadian House of Commons. He praised Canada for its having been on the “bright side of history” in fighting previous wars and that its aid to Ukraine had saved thousands of lives. He also thanked Canadians for financial support and for making Ukrainians fleeing the war feel at home in Canada. (quotation source: Associated Press) 

Sept 22 Ukraine launched a missile attack against the Russia's Crimean naval base at Sevastopol and claimed to have killed 34 naval officers, including the Black Sea fleet's commander Admiral Viktor Sokolov. Russia denied the admiral's death. Still, damage to the port was significant and an unverified number of base personnel were injured.   In response Moscow accused US and British intelligence services of helping in the attack. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stated that “There is not the slightest doubt that the attack was planned in advance using Western intelligence assets, NATO satellite equipment and reconnaissance aircraft." (quotation source: N-Tv De, a German television news channel) 

Sept 23   In an address to the UN General Assembly, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov lashed out at the US and the West as self-interested defenders of a fading international order. Vilifying the West as an "Empire of Lies,“  Lavrov added, "The U.S. and its subordinate Western collective are continuing to fuel conflicts which artificially divide humanity into hostile blocks and hamper the achievement of overall aims. They’re doing everything they can to prevent the formation of a genuine multipolar world order." .... “They are trying to force the world to play according to their own self-centered rules." .... "You can call this whatever you want to call this, but they are directly at war with us. We can call this a hybrid war, but that doesn't change the reality."  "They are effectively engaged in hostilities with us, using the Ukrainians as fodder."  Considering the Ukrainian attack on the Russian naval base at Sevastopol the day before, Lavrov only alluded to the war in Ukraine, referencing the breakup of the USSR in 1991. (quotation sources: The Express and Associated Press) Referring to suggestions made by UN Secretary-General Guterres that might encourage Russia to return to the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Lavrov said, "We explained to the Secretary General why his proposals won't work. We don't reject them. They're simply not realistic. They cannot be implemented" He also dismissed the 10-point peace plan proposed by Ukraine as "completely not feasible." (quotation source: Reuters)

Sept 24-25 Overnight a wave of Russian Shahed drones and cruise missiles struck Odesa and Beryslav, a city in the Kherson region.  Ukrainian air defense claimed to have destroyed 30 of the incoming weapons. Grain storage facilities in Odesa's port and city power grids were the primary targets. Six civilians were reported killed with others being injured.  Ukrainan President Zelenskyy announced that the first shipment of US-made Abrams tanks had arrived in Ukraine. 

Sept 25  Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán threatened to withdraw support for Ukraine in its war against Russia over concerns about Ukraine's treatment of ethnic Hungarians. In an address to the Hungarian Parliament, he cited a 2017 Ukrainian law that prohibits the country's ethnic Hungarians from speaking Hungarian in Ukrainian schools. There are just under 170,000 ethnic Hungarians in the Zakarpattia region of western Ukraine. Zakarpattia  borders Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania.  The area was once part of the Transcarpathian region of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and then part of the Russian Empire and Soviet Union. In 1991 Hungary was the first nation to recognize Ukraine's independence. The new Ukrainian government allowed its Hungarian residents Ukrainian citizenship and the legal right to use their language, but in 2017 Hungarian as a language of instruction was ended.  Orbán said Hungary would not support Ukraine on international issues “until the previous laws are restored.”

Even though Hungary is a member of NATO, Orbán tends to lean towards Russia. He has been critical of European Union aid for Ukraine but claims that “Hungary is doing everything for peace”.  (quotations source: The Hill)

Sept 28 The Swedish financial newspaper Dagens Industri reported that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has labeled Sweden Russia's greatest enemy in the north.  Lavrov accuses Sweden of being a "puppet of the United States", having allowed American military bases on Swedish soil. There are no US bases in Sweden. Sweden is on a fast track to NATO membership.

Sept 28  NATO General-Secretary Jens Stoltenberg met with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy in Kyiv and reaffirmed NATO's continuing support. “The stronger Ukraine becomes, the closer we come to ending Russia’s aggression,” Stoltenberg said. “Russia could lay down arms and end its war today. Ukraine doesn’t have that option. Ukraine’s surrender would not mean peace. It would mean brutal Russian occupation. Peace at any price would be no peace at all.”  Zelenskyy reminded the Secretary-General of the recent drone and rocket attacks, “In the face of such intense attacks against Ukrainians, against our cities, our ports, which are crucial for global food security, we need a corresponding intensity of pressure on Russia and a strengthening of our air defense." (quotation source: Associated Press)

The meeting with Stoltenberg came on the same day that Sebastien Lecornu, France's Minister of Defense, also met with Zelenskyy. Lecornu brought a delegation that included representatives of French defense contractors who manufacture drones, robots, artillery, ammunition, and employ artificial intelligence and cybertechnology. This French delegation would become part of a much larger group meeting in Kyiv, the International Defense Industries Forum.

Sept 30 Meeting in Kyiv, the International Defense Industries Forum saw the meeting of personnel from some 250 defense companies representing more than 30 countries. Among the businessmen were also numerous defense ministers and other officials.  Attending were tank manufacturers, artillery producers, drone manufacturers, ammunition makers, developers of innovative software, and owners of unique advanced technologies from partner states. Ukrainian state-owned and private defense industry enterprises also participated. NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg addressed the assembly by videolink. “Heroism alone cannot intercept missiles. Ukraine needs capabilities, high quality, high quantity, and quickly. There is no defense without industry.”  Acknowledging that many allies had depleted their own stocks of weapons in support of Ukraine, Stoltenberg added,  “This was the right thing to do, but now we need to ramp up production, both to meet Ukraine’s needs and to ensure our own deterrence in events.”  (Stoltenberg had been in Kyiv on Sept 28. NATO's representative at the forum was Wendy Gilmour, NATO's Assistant Secretary General for Defense Investments.) Both Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kubela and newly-appointed defense minister Rustem Umerov spoke on how forum members must not only assist Ukraine with needed weapons technology but help Ukraine's own arms industry modernize and increase its own production.  (quotations source: Associated Press) 

Sept 30  The Kremlin announced  that President Putin appointed Andrei Troshev as head of the mercenary Wagner Group.  Troshev had previously served as Yevgeny Prigozhin's Chief Of Staff.  Officially identifying Troshev as an "employee" of Russia's defense ministry, Putin added he would oversee "volunteer" units "in various combat missions," including Ukraine.  An assessment published by the British military intelligence service showed that just prior to the June 24 Prigozhin mutiny, Troshev had been actively encouraging Wagner troops to join with the Russians. As a result, the assessment read, "Many Wagner veterans likely consider him a traitor." (quotations source: Business Insider)

Sept 30  The US House of Representatives approved a down-to-the-wire stopgap Bill to fund the US Government for the next 45 days. But the Bill did NOT include continued funding for Ukraine.  A minority of extreme-right Republican congressmen had been refusing to fund the Government if the Bill contained expenditures designated for the war. In order to prevent a government shutdown, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (Republican, CA) reluctantly agreed to scrap those provisions relating to the war.  McCarthy was among those Republicans in favor of supporting aid to Ukraine, but there would be no majority for the overall funding bill without the support of the others. In response, President Biden issued a statement that "We cannot under any circumstances allow American support for Ukraine to be interrupted. I fully expect the Speaker will keep his commitment to the people of Ukraine and secure passage of the support needed to help Ukraine at this critical moment." (quotation source: Newsweek)

Newsweek reported that "the spending package has drawn questions about the future of U.S. support for Ukraine, as polls throughout this year have also shown slipping support for Ukraine aid. The U.S. has been one of Ukraine's strongest allies, with Biden overseeing the transfer of billions of dollars to Kyiv.  Between January 2022 and July 2023, the U.S. has provided Ukraine with $46.6 billion in military aid, $3.9 billion in humanitarian aid and $26.4 billion in financial aid, totaling roughly $77 billion, according to a recent analysis from the Council on Foreign Relations. This means it has provided more than any individual nation, though the European Union (EU) institutions have provided more than $80 billion."

Oct 1 Parliamentary elections in Slovakia signaled a loss for Ukraine. Slovakia, which shares a border with Ukraine, had been providing military support for Ukraine since the war began.  The most significant of  that aid being Soviet-era MIG fighter jets. The Slovakian elections gave the Smer-SD Party a controlling majority.  The Smer (meaning "Direction") Social Democratic Party is a left-wing populist party that was once the country's Communist Party. It is pro-Russian and opposed to continued military aid to Ukraine. Robert Fico, the party's leader and most likely Slovakia's next prime minister, has pledged to end military assistance to Ukraine.  He will support continued humanitarian aid but maintains that "arming Ukraine brings nothing but killing." (quotation source: Newsweek)  Fico was confirmed Prime Minister and announced the cessation of Slovak military aid on Nov. 25. Seeing that the war had stalemated and that sanctions against Russia have failed, he said Slovakia would favor a negotiated peace. Slovakia will continue to provide humanitarian aid to Ukraine. 

Oct 1 Russia reported having intercepted and destroyed numerous Ukrainian drones aimed at targets in the Smolensk, Krasnodar, and Belgorod regions. Russian military spokespersons described the attacks as "terrorist" and that there were no reported casualties.  

Oct 3  The economic effect of Western sanctions on doing business with Russia compelled Russia to raise rates on electricity exported to China. The change would add 7% to the cost of Russian power. Were that acceptable of China, Chinese consumers would be paying 7% more for their electricity. China's own power output has been affected by drought, reducing rainfall needed to replenish water for hydroelectric power generation.  While needing Russian electricity, China responded by cutting back on its power imports.  (author's comment: In effect this is a game of chicken. Who will give in first?)

Oct 5  Here's a "whopper" of a story!  Newsweek reports that Burger King has continued to operate franchises for its restaurants in Russia, despite its March 2022 announcement that it would end its operations. Restaurant Brands International owns many of the BK franchises in Russia claimed it had started the process of selling its BK assets back in 2022, but the process would "take some time." 

Oct 5  Yevgeny Balitsky, a Moscow-installed official of the Russian "annexed" Zaporizhzhia region, told journalist Julia Davis that Russia is justified in its war to conquer Ukraine. Ukraine was once part of the Russian Empire and later Soviet Union under which it knew peace and prosperity and, through Putin's "special military operation" is destined to be restored to Russia.   Balitsky added that parts of eastern Poland, all of Finland and "all of the Baltics" were "all our (Russian) lands, and our people live there," noting the Russian-speaking populations in those countries. "They were turned into a voiceless herd, they became trembling beasts," he said. "We have to correct this...through the might of Russian weapons. I don't believe in any diplomacy in this instance. Of course diplomacy always has to be present but I believe we can get it back only with the might of Russian weapons." Russia can "get our people back, the former subjects of the Russian Empire" so that the "whole world does not turn into Sodom and Gomorrah like it is happening in Europe." (Julia Davis is an Ukrainian-born American journalist and media analyst noted for founding Russia Media Monitor, a project monitoring Russian state television. She is also writes for the news Website, The Daily Beast.)  (quotations source: Newsweek)

Oct 5 A Russian Iskander missile slammed into a café in Hroza, killing 52 of the 58 villagers attending a wake for a fallen soldier. Hroza is in the Kharkiv region and was once under Russian control but had later been liberated by Ukrainian forces. The missile strike destroyed much of the village. The café had been closed but was opened specifically for the funeral wake.  As the Iskander is a precision targeting weapon, it is speculated that an informant had alerted the Russian military of the event. Among the dead were many of the deceased soldier's family, including children. There was no Ukrainian military presence in the area.  Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied Russian responsibility for the attack, saying the Russian "strikes target military infrastructure and troop locations." (quotation source: Associated Press)

(Oct 7 - 8 War in the Middle East In a sudden and massive land, sea, and air attack from Gaza, armed forces of the Islamic group Hamas struck targets across southern Israel, killing hundreds and taking civilian hostages, including women and children.  Thousands of rockets were fired at targets in Israel,  overwhelming the Israeli aerial defense system. The tactics used by Hamas revealed a significant failure of Israeli intelligence.  The attack took place on the Jewish holiday Simchat Torah, part of the week-long celebration of Sukkot, the Feast of the Tabernacles. It was a time for family gatherings and fun celebrations. Caught by surprise, Israel immediately declared war against Hamas and launched attacks against targets in Gaza. The US responded by affirming its support for Israel and ordered two naval aircraft carrier task force groups to the Eastern Mediterranean.  It is feared that the renewal of war in the region could lead to a wider conflict as Iran backs and provides intelligence to Hamas. Radical Islamist groups in Lebanon and Syria might also support Hamas in the east and north. It is not the purpose of this report on the war in Ukraine to be diverted to the Middle East, but events there might have impact on the actions of Russia, the US, and NATO that could affect Ukraine.) 

Oct 13 The war, of course, continues with fighting near the Ukrainian town of Avdiivka in the Donetsk region. (Donetsk, remember, is among those territories claimed to have been "annexed" by Russia in 2022.  The region is not fully under Russian control  and is part of the battle front that has seen prolonged and stalemated fighting since the war began.) As was the Donetsk city of Bakhmut, Avdiivka has become a symbol of Ukrainian resistance. "The Russians threw a lot of forces in this direction. They are betting on quantity. Our army is holding positions in heavy fighting,"   .... "Avdiivka. A Ukrainian city. Our land."  So wrote Andriy Yermak on X (Twitter). Yermak is the head of the Ukrainian presidential office (equivalent to the US President's White House Chief of Staff).  (quotation source: Reuters)  

Oct 13 The US imposed sanctions on two shipping companies in violation of the G 7 $60 cap per barrel of crude oil exported from Russia. Two companies in Turkey and the United Arab Emirates have been identified as paying $75 - $80 per barrel for Russian crude. That oil is then sold to consumers abroad. However, Business News Europe (bne Intellinews) reports that three-fifths of Russian seaborne crude exports are being carried by tankers not subject to comply with the $60 cap.  These ships are old vessels that were no longer in service but had been reactivated. Many are in need of repair, making them vulnerable to the vagaries of weather and heavy seas. 

Oct 17 Reuters reported that Russia announced a temporary cessation of gasoline and diesel fuel exports.  The action was taken in response to internal fuel shortages caused by refinery maintenance, transport bottlenecks, and Western sanctions. It is expected that the US will increase its fuel exports with buyers found in those countries previously reliant on Russian petroleum purchases. (author's comment: Reuters speculates that while this may be seen as beneficial to American fuel producers, it could mean higher prices for fuel on the US domestic market. Why? The more the US exports, the less is available to US consumers leading to higher prices at the pump and for heating oil. A decreasing supply will lead to higher demand and higher prices. It's not just fuel. Increased fuel costs mean higher operating costs for trucking companies which will be passed on to the rest of us, contributing to an economy already experiencing inflationary pressures. Then there's also the violence in the Middle East. The richest oil-producing countries, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Iran are all Muslim countries with stakes in the outcome of the Israeli-Hamas war.)  

Oct 17  The State Duma, the lower house of the Russian parliament, voted unanimous approval to the first reading (presentation) of a bill revoking Russia's ratification of the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT).  (There will be three required readings before a final vote, but it does not seem likely the vote will change.) Duma speaker Vyacheslav Volodin described the Russian vote as a response to the US “boorish attitude to performing its obligations to ensure global security" ...“They (the US) thought about themselves as hegemons, proponents of a unilateral world,” ... “Today's decision will ring the bell for them.”  (quotation source: Associated Press)  The US signed but never ratified the CTBT. (In addition to the US, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, Israel, Iran and Egypt have not ratified the CTBT.)  By withdrawing from the CTBT, Russia is signaling the possible resumption of nuclear weapons testing.  Putin, however, has indicated that Russia will not do so unless the US does first.  (With the bill's having been approved by the State Senate, Putin formally signed the de-ratification legislation on Nov. 1.) 

Within hours of the Duma vote, the US set off an underground explosion at a nuclear testing facility in Nevada.  Newsweek reported the Department of Energy stated the test was to improve US ability to "detect low-yield nuclear explosions around the world" and used chemicals, high-explosives, and radiotracers to "validate new predictive explosion models."  (Radiotracers? The IAEA identifies radiotracers as "substances with atomic or nuclear, physical, chemical or biological properties that can help identify, observe or follow the behavior of various physical, chemical or biological processes. Radioactive tracers are widely used to diagnose industrial reactors, for instance by measuring the flow rate of liquids, gases and solids." There. now you know.) While the radiation traces were miniscule and the test was not of a weapon, it still had nuclear components and might be used by Russia as a justification to resume nuclear tests. 

Oct 17  The UN General Assembly voted not to restore Russia's seat on the UN Human Rights Council (HRC).  Russia had been expelled from the HRC in the spring of 2022 following its invasion of Ukraine.  Of the UN members voting, however, some 83 (nearly 50%) voted for the Russian restoration.  This is seen as an indication that Russia still retains the favor of a significant part of the world community.  Of the UN's 193 members, several states abstained from voting.  

Oct 18 Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made a two-day visit to North Korea, thanking its "Supreme Leader" Kim Jong Un for supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine.  "… the Russian Federation," Lavrov said, "extends its complete support and solidarity with the aspirations of the DPRK” (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea). Following a September 13 meeting of Kim and Putin, Russia has been receiving shipments of North Korean armaments.

 The warming relations between North Korea, Russia, and China has been of concern to the US and its regional allies, Japan and South Korea.  A US naval aircraft carrier strike force made a five-day good-will visit to the South Korean port of Busan (Oct 13-18), this following several days of naval training exercises with South Korea and Japan.  North Korea sees such exercises as an "undisguised military provocation." (quotation source, Reuters)  Author's comment: The relationship of the two Koreas is referenced above. See Sept 13. 

Oct 19  President Joseph Biden, in a nationally televised speech relating to the Israeli-Hamas war, commented that "we cannot and will not let terrorists like Hamas and tyrants like Putin win. I refuse to let that happen." While his remarks were primarily reaffirming US support for Israel, Biden announced that he would seek a $105 billion aid package, part of which would be for Ukraine.  (author's comment: If anyone is actually reading this, you might also be aware that the US Congress, which would have to approve such expenditures, is presently unable to consider any new legislation as the Republican membership of the House of Representatives is unable to approve a choice for Speaker of the House.)  Russia's reaction to the president's words was predictable. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated,  "Such rhetoric is hardly suitable for responsible heads of state, and such rhetoric can hardly be acceptable for us; we do not accept such a tone towards the Russian Federation and towards our president." (quotation source, Reuters) 

Nov  10  author's comment: Readers may have noticed that I took a several week hiatus in updating this account. With global news reporting having been co-opted by the Israeli-Hamas war in the Middle East, reporting the war in Ukraine has been put on the back burner. 

Suffice it to say, the war has stalemated with the most active front being the Russian siege of Avdiivka in Donets. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the southern Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions has stalled, falling short of its efforts to reach Crimea.  Both sides continue drone and rocket attacks, Ukraine striking at Russian Black Sea naval bases.  With cold weather coming on, it is a given that Russia, as it did in 2022, will "weaponize" winter with attacks against Ukrainian energy infrastructure, disrupting distribution of electricity and heat to civilian populations.  

Nov. 15   President Biden's $105 billion aid package for Israel and Ukraine remains to be introduced in the House of Representatives. The Republican congressional leadership deadlock was resolved on Oct. 25 with the election of Mike Johnson as Speaker of the House. Representing Louisiana, Johnson is among those Republicans reluctant to continue major spending for Ukraine. The package designates $61 billion for Ukraine but remains in political limbo as the House wrestled to achieve agreement on another bill for the temporary extension of continued funding for the federal government.  Having passed the House, the extended funding bill was then approved by the Senate, following which both houses adjourned for a two week recess.  President Biden signed the Act into law. The extension expires at the end of February 2024.  There will be no congressional action on the Israel-Ukraine aid package until the new year.  (author's comment: Clearly, a dysfunctional Congress can do no better than just kick the fiscal can down the road. Such is the sad fate of our partisan politics nowadays. Achieving consensus in the better interest of the American people and our future seems to be a forgotten art.  Yeah ... I'm angry.) 

Nov 15   The Associated Press reported that Ukrainian forces in the Kherson region crossed the Dnieper River and secured a foothold on the Russian-controlled southern bank.  Vladimir Saldo, the Russian-appointed governor of Kherson, acknowledged the Ukrainian incursion and promised the invaders would face a "fiery hell" of destruction. 

Nov 16    A high-ranking Russian air force commander and his wife were found dead at their home in Russia's Stavropol region.  Lt. General Vladimir Sviridov (68) had once publicly criticized Russian President Putin for overseeing "third-rate" training of pilots and army officers. No cause of death has been announced. Readers will recall that several Russian high-ranking  military commanders have died under mysterious conditions since the war began in 2022.   

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The following Nov. 16, 2023 article in the British digital Financial World very effectively explains Russia's perspective regarding its current relationship with the US. 

(It was on Nov. 16, 1933, 90 years ago, that President Franklin Roosevelt restored US diplomatic relations with Russia, broken since the Communists took power in 1917.) 

Russian-American relations are teetering on the edge of rupture, a precarious situation attributed by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia to Washington's actions. In an official announcement commemorating the 90th anniversary of the restoration of diplomatic relations between Russia and the USA, the Ministry underscored the profound crisis gripping the bilateral ties, laying blame squarely on Washington's doorstep.

The Ministry contends that a seismic shift in global geopolitics, marked by Washington's obsessive pursuit of global containment against Moscow and Beijing, lies at the heart of the deteriorating relations. This global containment strategy, aimed at nations diverging from the Western-imposed world order, has pushed the relationship between Russia and the USA to a breaking point, according to the announcement.

The focal point of the tension, as per the Russian Ministry, is Washington's unabated Russophobia, a sentiment that has intensified to the extent that diplomatic relations are at constant risk of rupture. The Ministry emphasizes that Russia is not the instigator of this crisis; rather, it attributes the perilous state of affairs to the irresponsible actions of the United States.

The doctrinally set objective of inflicting a "strategic defeat" on Moscow, as outlined by the US, is singled out as a particularly alarming factor that could have catastrophic consequences. The Russian Ministry places the blame for the deep crisis on the world view of the American political elite that assumed power in the 1990s and 2000s.

Additionally, it criticizes the current inability of American politicians and experts to accurately assess the developments in Russia post-1991. The Ministry decries the futile and absurd focus of certain American circles on "regime change" and fomenting unrest in Russia, backed by substantial financial investments.

Despite the prevailing discord, the Ministry points to a historical positive precedent in the bilateral relationship. It recalls a time when cooperation was built on principles of respect and mutual appreciation of interests.

Citing the agreement on the restoration of diplomatic relations from 1933, the Ministry argues that these principles remain relevant, even in the face of the unprecedented challenges of the present day.

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Nov 18  Reuters reported that a Liberian-flagged bulk carrier vessel was damaged when it struck a floating mine in the Black Sea on Nov. 16.  The ship was carrying grain from the Ukrainian port at Pivdennyi to Constanta in Romania. Other incidents of merchant ships hitting mines were reported on Oct. 5 and 16. It is not known if the mines were Ukrainian or Russian as both use mines to protect ports or to destroy shipping entering or leaving ports.  Readers are reminded that mines are undersea explosive weapons. There are many different types of mines with differing degrees of destructive sophistication, but most are tethered to anchors at the sea bottom.  As most mines are magnetized, they are attracted by the steel hulls of passing vessels. If a tether breaks accidentally, the mine could float to the surface as was the case regarding these ships.

While not mentioned here for a while, drone attacks continue to be launched by both sides. The Moscow Times reported a Ukrainian drone was shot down near Moscow on Nov. 18. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported there were no casualties or damages.  Targeting Kyiv and other locations with Iranian-made Shahed drones, Russia launched multiple strikes over the nights of Nov. 17 and 18. The Ukrainian General Staff reported the destruction of 44 of the 58 incoming drones, with no casualties and only minor ground damage.  The Moscow Times is an independent newspaper that publishes in multiple languages.  It was a print publication from 1992 to 2017 when, under strict Russian censorship, it relocated its base from Moscow to Amsterdam.  It is today an online publication.  On Nov. 18 Russia officially designated the paper's publishers as “foreign agents.”

Nov 20  US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin made an unannounced visit to Kyiv. In a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Austin announced a new $100 million security package and assured continued American support for Ukraine.  It provides a single HiMARS rocket system, some anti-aircraft systems, artillery and small arms ammunition. In dollar amounts, the package, coming from Department of Defense inventories, is modest compared to past expenditures, largely because of the failure of Congress to pass legislation for greater funding. 

Nov 21 At the same time as Austin's visit, the European Union presented its members a draft of a "framework to give Ukraine lasting security commitments, including a mechanism for longer-term military support, the training of Ukrainian troops and help to boost the country’s defense industry." (quotation source: Bloomberg) The draft will be considered first by EU ambassadors and then by EU heads of state at a summit meeting in December.  This comes as the EU is falling short of a pledge to provide Ukraine with a million rounds of artillery ammunition by March 2024.  

The EU agenda for the December summit also includes consideration of fast-track EU membership for Ukraine, a policy opposed by Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán. (EU membership admission requires unanimous consent of all member states.)  Hungary accuses Ukraine of violating the rights of ethnic Hungarians living in western Ukraine by restricting the use of the Hungarian language in schools.   

Orbán has also launched an anti-European Union billboard attack. Across the country billboards have been posted picturing European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Alexander Soros with the caption "Let's not march to their tune." Soros is the son of the Hungarian-American financier George Soros, accused by Orbán seeking to weaken Hungary. Orbán maintains that Hungary's membership in the EU has been as suppressive as were Hungary's 40 years under Soviet domination.   The EU has been increasingly critical of Hungary, saying that its government had become "a hybrid regime of electoral autocracy."  Orbán's billboard campaign is a promotional effort intended to encourage participation in a "national consultation," a survey sent to every adult in the country on a "number of divisive issues including migration, LGBTQ+ rights and support for Ukraine." (quotations source: Associated Press) 

Nov 22  Indian Prime Minister Narenda Modi hosted a virtual meeting of the Group of 20, the purpose of which was to follow up on the Sept G 20 meeting. (See Sept 9, 2023 above.)  Neither President Biden nor Chinese President Xi "attended".  In his first address to the G 20 since the war in Ukraine began, Russian President Putin called the war "a tragedy" but did not express any responsibility for having caused it and accused Ukraine of refusing to negotiate a settlement. In previous statements Ukraine has refused to negotiate any settlement that does not call for the removal of Russian troops and restoration of all territory occupied by Russia since 2014. 

Nov 23     Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko expressed angry dissatisfaction with Armenia's decision not to attend the annual meeting of the  Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in Minsk.  Formed in 2002 CSTO is a military alliance of six former Soviet republics: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan,  Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tadzhikistan.  In September Armenia donated 1000 tech items (laptops, tablets, smartphones, etc) to Ukrainian schools, an action deemed by Russia as contrary to CSTO policy. Armenia has also been in a long on-off armed conflict with its neighbor Azerbaijan stemming from mistreatment of the Armenian population in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, an enclave in Azerbaijan. Armenia accuses Russia of supporting Azerbaijan. Despite these issues and the boycotting of the Minsk summit, Armenia insists it has no intention to withdraw from CSTO.  

Nov 23   Parliamentary elections in the Netherlands returned a slight majority to that country's right-wing Partij Voor de Vrijheid  (PVV: Party for Freedom). PVV leader Geert Wilders will most likely become Prime Minister. Ultra-nationalist and populist, the PVV claims to champion the "Dutchness" of the Dutch people and is opposed to the assimilation of non-European immigrants, wants to expel Muslims, and seeks to end Dutch membership in the European Union.  While numbering only 37 parliamentary seats, the PVV has the largest representation of the country's 18 political parties in its House of Representatives.  Not holding a majority of seats in the 150-seat House, the PVV will not be able to rule on its own and will, therefore, be required to form a coalition with enough other parties to get a majority. Making a coalition of opposing parties requires difficult negotiating with all parties needing to seek a consensus on policy and office-holding personalities. Wilders will have to make deals and concessions to other rightist and centrist parties. 

Nov 25   Robert Fico, the new Prime Minister of Slovakia, announced that Slovakia will no longer provide military assistance to Ukraine.  (See Oct. 1 above.)  

Nov 25   In what was an exceptionally large attack on Kyiv, 71 of 75 Russian Shahed drones were destroyed by Ukrainian air defenses.  Falling debris caused ground damage, but only two civilian injuries were reported.  The western city of Khmelnytskyi has also come under Russian drone attack.   Khmelnytskyi is the location of a nuclear power plant.  The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)  reported that shockwaves from explosions interrupted power to some nearby radiation monitoring stations.

Nov 26    Ukraine responded with renewed drone attacks against targets around Moscow and in four other provinces . Russian air defense claimed the destruction of 24 drones and acknowledged some ground damages but gave no casualty figures.  As a precaution, flight operations at four airports in the Moscow area were temporarily suspended.  

Nov 27   Bettina! A devastating storm with hurricane-force winds, producing high seas, moved across the Aegean and Black Seas over the weekend of Nov 25 -27.  Damage along the Crimean and eastern Black Sea coasts was severe and included destruction of floating barriers placed to protect the Kerch Bridge.  Named "Bettina" by European meteorologists, the storm produced wide-spread power outages, killed at least four persons, sank a cargo ship in the Aegean and drove another aground in Russia. North of the Black Sea the storm produced blizzard conditions in Ukraine, causing power outages, disruptions of water supplies, highway and road closures with snow drifts of more than six feet.  Thirteen persons were injured in the Odessa region.  Romania, Serbia, Moldova, Bulgaria, as well as the Moscow region also experienced strong winds and snowfall. A week earlier, another storm swept along Turkey's Black sea coast, killing nine people and sinking a cargo ship.  

Nov 28  The foreign ministers of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia (the Baltic states), and Ukraine announced that they would not attend the meeting of the foreign ministers of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) on Nov. 30 in Skopje, North Macedonia. The 57-nation OSCE was founded in 1975 in Helsinki, Finland, as the result of an international gathering of Western and Soviet bloc states seeking means of resolving Cold War tensions.  The Baltic and Ukrainian boycott is in objection to the attendance of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Ukraine issued a statement accusing Russia of "resorting to blackmailing and open threats .... coercing and undermining the OSCE through the abuse of the rule of consensus”  by blocking Estonia's candidacy for OSCE chairmanship for 2024.  The Baltic states issued a statement that “For the past two years we have witnessed how one OSCE participating state has actively and brutally tried to annihilate another... Let us be very clear: Russia’s war of aggression and atrocities against its sovereign and peaceful neighbor Ukraine blatantly violate international law.”  Lavrov’s attendance at the Skopje meeting “risks legitimizing aggressor Russia as a rightful member of our community of free nations, trivializing the atrocious crimes Russia has been committing." 

Speaking of Lavrov, North Macedonia’s foreign minister, Bujar Osmani, said “Lavrov is not coming to Skopje, in a way. Lavrov is coming to the OSCE just as he went to (the) U.N. in New York a few months ago,” ... “I won’t be meeting him as the foreign minister of North Macedonia, but as the OSCE chairman in office.”  Asked what he would say to Lavrov, Osmani said: “I think the Russian Federation has violated (the) commitments of OSCE principles that we have voluntarily subscribed to 50 years ago.” 

He added: “We have condemned the aggressor throughout our chairpersonship. And also we have turned (the) OSCE into a platform for political and legal accountability of the Russian Federation for its deeds in Ukraine, and we will continue to do so. And this is what I am going to tell to Mr. Lavrov as well.”  (quotations source: Associated Press)

Dec 1 The OSCE meeting did not go well for Lavrov.  Addressing the assembly, Luxembourg's foreign minister Xavier Bettel passionately criticized Russia for starting an unjustified war.  Making reference to the Russian slaughter of civilians in the Ukrainian village of Bucha (April 2022), Bettel said, "With your behavior, you destroyed everything we built: cultural, political and economic relations" ...."You have made a big mistake .... Stop what has no explanation and no reason. Believe me, the power is not in showing that you are stronger, but in stopping the suffering of millions of people .... Starting a war is easy. Ending the war is a trait of leaders." (quotation source: Ukrainska Pravda)  

In his 15-minute address to the assembly, Lavrov justified the Russian invasion of Ukraine as the response to “NATO’s reckless expansion to the East” and Western tolerance of the “ruling neo-Nazi regime in Kyiv." Referring to Ukraine's once having been part of Russia, he said, “The very existence of Russians and their decisive contribution to the history of Ukraine are denied” ... “There are plenty of facts. The OSCE and its relevant institutions are silent.” On completing his remarks, Lavrov left the meeting.  (quotation source: ABC News) The Ukrainian delegation, led by Deputy Foreign Minister Andriy Melnyk, walked out as Lavrov spoke. The US was represented at the meeting by James O'Brian, US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken met with the North Macedonian and Ukrainian foreign ministers on a short visit to Skopje on Nov. 29.

Lavrov had earlier (Nov 29) commented that Moldova's bid to join the European Union makes it the "next victim in the hybrid war against Russia unleashed by the West." On Nov. 30 Moldova's Foreign Ministry responded, "Russia's statements, whether today or on previous occasions, are part of the series of hostile actions that the Russian Federation has been trying to implement towards our country over the past 30 years," .... "Fortunately, throughout this time, the partner states in the West have been by our side, helping us to successfully overcome these threats." ...."We hope that our message—clear and sharp—will be understood by him (Lavrov) as well: the Republic of Moldova is going, irreversibly, on the European path and today, more than ever, we insist on the immediate and unconditional withdrawal of Russian troops from our territory." (Those Russian troops are in the Transnistria region along Moldova's border with Ukraine.  See April 18-21, 2022 above.)  In June 2022 the EU granted Moldova candidate status for membership and in March 2023 renewed its promise of continued security and economic support. (quotations source: Newsweek)  

Dec 4 NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg issued a warning that "bad news" lies ahead regarding the war in Ukraine.  The war has stalemated, he said, and Ukraine's battlefront victories over the last few months have not been enough to push the Russians back. It was therefore essential that the allies not waver in their continued efforts to send military aid to Ukraine. "The more we support the Ukraine, the faster the war will end." (quotation source: The Hill)

Stoltenberg's warning comes as US Budget Director Shalanda Young made written appeals to Congressional leaders to approve Biden's $105 Billion aid package. If not implemented by the new year, the US will run out of time and money to provide weapons and logistical support for Ukraine. (See Nov. 15 above.) 

Dec 7 On a two-day visit to Washington, British Foreign Minister David Cameron called on the US Senate to pass Biden's $105 billion aid package, releasing the $60 billion designated for Ukraine. On Dec 6 Republicans in the Senate again blocked the aid package, demanding that the Biden administration make changes in US border and immigration policy.  Reflecting the view of hardline Republican Senators, South Carolina Senator Lindsay Graham, usually a staunch supported for assistance to Ukraine, remarked that security on the southern border is a greater priority than aid to Ukraine.  Commenting on the congressional stalemate, Cameron remarked that support for Ukraine "is an investment into their success, and the worst thing in the world would be to allow Putin a win in Ukraine – not just because that would be bad in itself, but (because) he’d be back for more.” Aid to Israel is also part of that $105 billion package. (quotation source: CNN) Cameron is a former British Prime Minister, 2010-2016. 

Dec 8 Russia unleashed a cruise missile attack against Kyiv, Kharkiv, and other targets across Ukraine.  Ukrainian air defenses claimed the interception and destruction of 14 of the 19 aircraft-born missiles.  Civilian casualties reported were two deaths and several injuries caused by falling debris.  In all areas hit by missiles or debris, there was damage to residences and businesses. 

Dec 10 Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy traveled to Buenos Aires, Argentina, to attend the inauguration of newly elected president Javier Milei. While in the Argentine capital he also met with the presidents of Ecuador, Paraguay, and Uruguay, securing their support for his 10-point "Peace Formula". 

(author's comment: Readers are reminded that Zelenskyy presented Ukraine's conditions for peace at the G 20 meeting in Nov. 2022.  The ten points reflect a broad sweep of conceptual matters to be resolved.  Very simply, they address  radiation and nuclear safety, food security, energy security, release of prisoners and deportees, implementation of the UN Charter, withdrawal of Russian troops and cessation of hostilities, recognition of Ukraine's pre-2014 boundaries, justice, ecocide and the protection of the environment, prevention of escalation, and confirmation of the end of the war.) 

Dec 11 Republican Senator David Vance (Ohio) in comments on the Fox News "State of the Union" telecast remarked that the United States needs to accept that Ukraine must "cede some territory" to Russia and that American leadership must ensure the U.S. is "not writing more blank checks" to fund Ukraine's defense. "We can't make strategic decisions based on stark morality tales. We have to figure out what is in America's best interest," Vance said Sunday during an appearance on CNN's "State of the Union." "We have a food crisis that's getting worse because of the prolonged war in Eastern Europe. We have an energy crisis that's threatening to swamp multiple allied governments in Western Europe. What's in America's best interest is to accept Ukraine is going to have to cede some territory to the Russians, and we need to bring this war to a close. When I think about the great human tragedy here, hundreds of thousands of eastern Europeans, innocent, have been killed in this conflict. The thing that's in our interest and in theirs is to stop the killing." .... "On the Ukraine question in particular, everybody knows everybody with a brain in their head … knows that this was always going to end in negotiation," Vance added. "The idea that Ukraine was going to throw Russia back to the 1991 borders was preposterous. Nobody actually believed it. So what we're saying to the president and really to the entire world is you need to articulate what the ambition is. What is $61 billion going to accomplish? That $100 billion hasn't reached."  (quotation source: Fox News) 

Dec 12 Traveling to the US on President Biden's invitation,  Zelenskyy pressed his case for uninterrupted continuance of US military and logistical assistance.   In a closed-door meeting Senate leaders Chuck Schumer (Dem) and Mitch O'Connell (Rep) and House Speaker Mike Johnson (Rep) assured Zelenskyy that the US would continue to support Ukraine, but only through the congressional process of approving Biden's $105 billion aid package.  That process has been stalled in the House of Representatives as the Republican majority wants it tied to guarantees of presidential and legislative action on US border security. If it is not approved by the time Congress adjourns for its holiday recess on Dec. 15, current US funding will end on Dec. 31. After having spoken with Zelenskyy, Johnson said that the Biden administration did not have a "clear strategy that will allow Ukraine to win"...."We need specifics about what we are doing in Ukraine, how we are monitoring the use of precious American taxpayer money and transformational change at the border. So far, we have none of that."  (quotation source: Ukrainska Pravda) 

In a news conference with Zelenskyy Biden announced a pre-approved $200 million aid package for Ukraine, saying “We’ll continue to supply Ukraine with critical weapons and equipment as long as we can, including $200 million I just approved today in critical needed equipment, additional air defense interceptors, artillery and ammunition,” ... “But without supplemental funding, we’re rapidly coming to an end of our ability to help Ukraine respond to the urgent operational demands that it has.” (quotation source: NBC News)

Dec 13 Continuing his travels, Zelenskyy flew to Oslo, Norway, for the second Ukraine-Northern Europe Summit Meeting, also known as the Nordic Summit. There he met with the leaders of Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, and Iceland. The first Nordic Summit took place in Helsinki, Finland, on May 3, 2023.   His purpose was to "discuss strengthening defense, political, and economic cooperation, as well as our common future in Europe." (quotation source: RBC Ukraine - established in 2006, RBC is a Ukrainian news Website)

Zelenskyy then hoped to attend the European Union's annual summit meeting in Brussels, but French President Macron and German Chancellor Scholz advised that it would be better for Ukraine were he not there. He was assured, however, that the EU was still committed to future Ukrainian membership and continuing EU financial aid to Ukraine.  The summit began on Dec. 13. 

Addressing the summit, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated,  "as the war drags on, we must prove what it means to support Ukraine for as long as it takes,”  She said Ukraine needs stable financing over the coming years “so that it can be stronger tomorrow at the table, when it is negotiating a long-lasting and just peace for Ukraine.” (quotation source: Wall Street Journal)

Beyond military assistance, the EU has committed billions of dollars in support of Ukraine's social and economic survival and recovery and is considering a new $54 billion four-year budget package.  To date such funds have been used "to keep hospitals, schools and power plants running, pay veterans’ benefits and rebuild homes." the new package is "designed to give Ukraine and potential investors confidence that the country can stave off bankruptcy in coming years."  The Wall Street Journal reported that "Ukraine’s expected budget deficit for 2024 is around $43 billion. The EU has so far been covering more than half of Ukraine’s annual budget gap during the war, including more than $19 billion in financial assistance this year.  

Dec. 14  The major opponent of future Ukrainian EU membership has been Hungarian President Viktor Orbán, who has objections to Kyiv's policy towards Ukraine's ethnic Hungarian population. (See Nov. 21 above.)  However, in a meeting with Macron and Scholz on Dec. 14, Orbán hinted at a deal whereby he would not oppose it. The EU had been withholding some $30 billion in budget and pandemic recovery funding from Hungary for its violation of EU standards for members' judicial standards, corruption, and budget management.  In return for unblocking those funds, Hungary might not oppose funding for Ukraine.  He also stated that when a vote was taken for continuing consideration of Ukrainian membership he would abstain.   However, when that vote came on Dec. 15, Orbán voted no. 

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Dec. 15  Author's comment: I am here adding a Nov. 29 article from Newsweek on Russia's current relationship with NATO.  I may later integrate it with the lengthy narrative this chapter has become. 

Sergei Ryabkov, Russia's deputy foreign minister, has issued an ominous warning about a possible armed conflict between Moscow and NATO member states during an interview with Russian daily newspaper Izvestia, published Wednesday.

Russian officials have routinely insinuated that Russia could attack NATO members for providing Ukraine with assistance in the ongoing war. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said in December 2022 that such countries could be "legitimate military targets."

Ryabkov was asked whether he expects an armed conflict between Russia and NATO in the future, should relations remain as strained as they are now.

"It depends on the North Atlantic Alliance. NATO has a choice. As we already demonstrated, we are ready to protect our national interests by all means," said Ryabkov.

Ryabkov said it would be a "dangerous path" to "encroach endlessly" on Russia's interests and said that "the people who continue to test our strength, they must have believed that there was no limit to their own rate-raising game, but they may find themselves among the total losers in this arena."

The deputy foreign minister said he does not think that relations between Russia and NATO will be restored "in the foreseeable future."

"This is excluded for reasons of both principle and practicality. If anyone in the West thinks that we need these relationships and at some point, we will come and ask for their restoration, this is a big mistake," said Ryabkov.

The Kremlin has repeatedly accused members of NATO of becoming involved in the conflict in Ukraine by sending Kyiv weapons, providing its troops with training, and assisting with military intelligence.

Ryabkov said he believes relations between Moscow and Washington have "deteriorated to such an extent that its rupture is possible," but said if this happens, it will be because of "the decisions and actions of the White House."

The minister repeated the Kremlin line that the West is waging a "hybrid war" against Russia.

"But we are ready for them. If this is Washington's choice, we will take note of it and take appropriate countermeasures," warned Ryabkov.

"We will not allow people to talk to us in a mentoring, commanding manner, as is customary in Washington. Let me emphasize once again: we use the entire arsenal of means at our disposal in order to ensure our interests. If diplomatic relations fall out of this arsenal of means because of the United States, then this is Washington's choice," he added.

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Dec 17  Lithuania and Germany announced that they had concluded an agreement whereby a brigade of German troops would have a permanent presence in Lithuania.  The "Roadmap Action Plan" calls for the stationing of some 4800 German troops and their families in Vilnius and Kaunas. The deployment will be in stages beginning in 2024 with full-operation capability in 2027.  Lithuania will provide civilian and military infrastructure. This will be the first time German troops have been stationed in another European country since World War Two.  In a press release Lithuanian Defense Minister Arvydas Anusauskas wrote, "The German commitment of permanently stationing a brigade in Lithuania is a historical step for both Germany and Lithuania" .... "We are turning over to a page of even deeper strategic partnership" .... "The German Brigade will significantly increase our defensive potential and enhance NATO deterrence and collective defense. The Roadmap signed today lays out in detail the track we and Germany will take to implement it." (quotation source: Newsweek)

Dec 17 In an interview with Rossiya state television, Russian president Putin referred to recent statements by President Biden that if victorious in Ukraine, there would be nothing to stop Russia from attacking NATO states in Europe.  "It is complete nonsense” Putin said, “and I think President Biden understands that. Russia has no reason, no interest - no geopolitical interest, neither economic, political nor military - to fight with NATO countries." (quotation source: Reuters)

(author’s comment: In Sept of 1938 in the heat of the Sudetenland crisis with Czechoslovakia, Hitler remarked that acquiring the Sudetenland would be "the last territorial demand I have to make in Europe." How did that work out?  See chapter 24, part 1 The Origins of World War Two in Europe.) 

Russia’s relations with Finland are strained at best. Finland provides Ukraine with arms and logistical support, including pilot training.  Finland has been increasing its military presence along its 830-mile border with Russia.  Putin, in response, has announced that Russia will create a “military zone” adding troops to border areas near St. Petersburg. Finland has eight border crossings with Russia but has closed all but two, and in recent weeks, they had been temporarily closed.  Anti-immigration political parties in Finland claim Russia is attempting to push refugees from Asia and the Middle East into the country and are pressuring the government to act to prevent it. Commercial truck and rail traffic is likewise restricted, with financial losses to both countries. 

Finland's relations with Russia were further exacerbated on Dec 19.  Finland's ambassador to Russia was summoned to the Foreign Ministry in Moscow in response to a Finnish-American defense agreement allowing the US a military presence in Finland.  The Dec. 18 agreement allows the US "unimpeded access" to 15 areas, including four air bases and a port facility, for storage of equipment and munitions.  The ambassador was told Russia would "not leave unanswered the buildup of NATO military potential on our border, which threatens the security of the Russian Federation, and would take the necessary measures to counter the aggressive decisions of Finland and its NATO allies" (quotations source: Reuters)  The US has similar arrangements with other NATO partners. 

Dec 25  Reflective of Ukraine's breaking with centuries of cultural identity with Russia, the Ukrainian Orthodox Church officially celebrated Christmas on Dec. 25. Under the traditional Orthodox liturgical Julian calendar, Christmas was always January 7. The designation of Dec. 25 as Christmas was established through legislation in July 2023.  Many Ukrainians, however, will continue the traditional observance on January 7.  

Dec 26  The foreign policy committee of the Turkish parliament voted to approve NATO membership for Sweden.  Swedish membership, however, must be ratified by the full parliament.  Deputy Foreign Minister Burak Akcapar assured the committee that Sweden had made suitable changes in its anti-terrorism laws in ways that “no one could have imaged five or six years ago.”  (quotation source: Associated Press) Turkey had long protested that Sweden protected Kurdish refugee terrorists and supported Kurdish resistance to Turkish rule.  

Dec 26  The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that an attack by Ukrainian cruise missiles on Russian port facilities at Feodosia in Crimea critically damaged the Novocherkassk, a large naval landing ship. An exceptionally large explosion occurred during the attack. The ship was being used to ferry munitions to Russian forces in Crimea. An old minesweeper being used as a training vessel, docked nearby, was sunk. One death was announced and 33 persons were initially reported missing.  An updated (Dec. 29) report adjusted the casualty count to 74 deaths and 27 injured. Earlier Ukrainian attacks on Sebastopol and other Russian Black Sea ports have caused the Russians to withdraw naval units to safer ports more distant from the war zone.  

Dec 27  Russian rocket and drone attacks continue.  Overnight Russia fired almost 50 Shahed drones at targets across Ukraine. Russian artillery fire struck a railroad station in Kherson, killing five and knocking out power in most of the city. The attack occurred at a time when some 140 passengers were waiting to board a train for Kyiv. The train did make its run to the capital. While such attacks are almost commonplace, Ukrainian authorities believe this was in retaliation for the Dec. 26 Ukrainian attack on the Russian naval facilities at Feodosia. 

Dec 27 The Biden administration announced a $250 million military assistance package for Ukraine. This was drawn from already existing funds allocated for the war. While sizeable, it does not come near the $60 billion package now stalled in Congress.  (See  Dec. 7 and 12 above.)  Foreign financial assistance for Ukraine has been allocated by other NATO and EU nations, but with the confidence that US assistance will, as it has, provide the great bulk of funding.  The perception that the US might not continue that level of funding has caused concern among some German politicians.  Germany has provided the second-most financial assistance to Ukraine. If the US cuts back, Germany and the other allies will not be able to fill the financial void and may cut back as well.  This has given rise to the suggestion that Ukraine seek some sort of resolution of the conflict by ceding territory to Russia. Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Oleh Nikolenko dismissed that notion, "arguing that accepting any loss of territory would 'inevitably lead to more aggression' from Russia." (quotation source: Newsweek)

On the background of the war's having stalemated, there is speculation that Putin may be contemplating  discussing a cease-fire upon which to open negotiations for a resolution of the conflict.  International observers and insiders familiar with Putin's goals and intentions, see him as looking for a way out and present conditions are seen working to his advantage.  The Western allies are experiencing domestic political challenges to continued funding of Ukraine.  The outbreak of war in the Middle East has also refocused international attention away from Ukraine.  Any discussions, however, would be based on Russia's not withdrawing from any territory already taken. Ukraine has long insisted that any future peace must be based on full Russian withdrawal and recognition of Ukraine's pre-2014 boundaries. 

Dec 28-29  In the most massive aerial attack of the war to date, Russia launched 122 missiles and 36 Shahed drones at targets across Ukraine. The assault took place over an 18-hour period. Ukrainian air defense claimed to have intercepted and destroyed 87 of the missiles and 27 of the drones. Kyiv, Odesa, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, and Lviv were the cities attacked. Some 52 deaths were reported across the country: Of these, 27 deaths and 30 injuries in Kyiv. Ground damage included a maternity hospital, apartment blocks, and schools.   (author's comment: Throughout the war casualty figures as reported by various media are fluid at best and subject to change.) 

Dec 30 Russian authorities reported a Ukrainian drone attack killed at least 14 and injured some 100 civilians in the city of Belogrod and the nearby village of Urazovo. Russia claims the attack struck the Belogrod city center, damaging residential and government buildings and a medical center. Residences and a school were reported damaged in Urazovo.  Belogrod is located 19 miles north of Ukraine's northeastern border with Russia.  (See map at June 5, 2023)  It has been the target of other missile and drone attacks. Neither Russia nor Ukraine acknowledged what specific types of drones or missiles were used in the attack. Suspilne, the Ukrainian public radio / television service, claimed that the attacks were aimed at military targets and that any civilian casualties were the result of Russia's air defenses.  

Dec 31  In his New Year's Eve address to Ukraine, President Zelenskyy commended his country's resilience. “Ukraine has become stronger. Ukrainians have become stronger… at the beginning of 2023, in January and February, we surmounted, without exaggeration, the most difficult winter in history… we did not fade away in the darkness. The darkness did not engulf us. We defeated the darkness." ....“The war, unfortunately, separated families, took away sons and daughters, and at the same time united us into one big family… hold onto the belief in Ukraine’s return. Knowing that all expectations are not in vain. And I want you to feel our gratitude to you for this. And remember: without each and every one of you, Ukraine will be incomplete.” (quotations source: CNN)

2024

 Jan. 1 In light of the recent air attacks, President Zelenskyy declared January 1 an official Day of Mourning.  Regardless, the war continued.  Another wave of Russian aerial strikes across Ukraine reportedly killed five and inured 22. A residential area in Odesa was among the targets.  Ukraine struck back in the Russian-occupied Donetsk.  Russian authorities in the Zaporizhzhia region claimed midnight strikes by at least 15 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems that killed at least four and injured 13.  Ukraine reported the successful destruction of a Buk-M2 anti-aircraft missile system and a 9S36 radar station. 

Jan 2  The Russian aerial assault on both Kyiv and Kharkiv continued.  Ukrainian air defense claims that 10 hypersonic Kinzhal  missiles and 62 cruise missiles were intercepted and destroyed. The attack is reported to have killed five people and injured more than 100.

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Author’s comment, Jan 2, 2024  It may be of interest to my readers with Buffalo Seminary connections that since late October 2022, Mona Fetouh, Class of 1990, has been Chief of Evaluation for UNICEF in Kyiv. UNICEF is the United Nations Children's Fund. I asked her for an update on conditions in Kyiv. 

"…. just like this time last year, Russia has significantly stepped up the missile and drone strikes. Last week was one of the biggest and most complex strikes so far, with a mix of Khinzal missiles, drones and other munitions across a number of urban centers. And this morning we had another massive attack, primarily the Khinzal hypersonic missiles which are launched from MiGs. The danger is that since they are very fast, they can strike very quickly after the air alarm goes off. In cities like Kharkiv which are close to the Russian border, they often hit even before the alarm is triggered. Thankfully, air defense is catching most of them (in Kyiv at least) so most of the danger comes from falling debris, which has caused some building fires in some areas of the city. It seems their strategy is to try and deplete Ukraine's air defense resources. The only defenses capable of intercepting the hypersonic missiles are Patriots, and no one publicly knows (I'm sure it's a closely guarded secret!) how many Ukraine has. No one is sure either that Patriots will be resupplied, considering the current political climate in the US which has seen waning support for military aid to Ukraine. … Once the Patriots run out the attacks will become significantly more dangerous. We've gotten used to relying on air defense working well. 

One good change since last year is that despite the Russians still targeting the power infrastructure, the grid remains largely intact and there haven't been widespread power and water cuts this year. At least not yet (fingers crossed)! Our security staff are telling us however to expect the stepped-up strikes to continue, so we are taking extra care to shelter when the air raid alarm goes off.

In the meantime, life goes on, and there are even a few more holiday lights on display this year compared to last, and a smaller-than-usual tree on display in St Sophia's Square. This is also the second year that Christmas was officially moved to December 25 rather than the traditional January 7, but it seems some families are taking the opportunity to celebrate both and have a prolonged holiday period. :) One nice fact I learned is that the Carol of the Bells is actually from a Ukrainian folk song called Shchedryk. …. I also learned that there has been a turn away from the Soviet era secular Santa "Did Moroz" back to the traditional St Nicholas. 

Work wise, we (UNICEF Kyiv) are up to our ears in end-of-year processes, several evaluations and our five-year planning process."

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Jan 3 In more positive news, Russia and Ukraine completed the largest prisoner exchange of the war to date , wherein 230 Ukrainian and 248 Russian POWs (prisoners of war) were freed. The agreement was  brokered by the United Arab Emirates (UAE).  

The Ukrainian men and women included 130 regular soldiers, 55 national guard troops, 38 border guards, one police officer, and six civilians. Several of the prisoners had been captured in the the battles for Chernobyl and Mariupol in the spring of 2022.   In an address to the nation, President Zelenskyy hailed the "long-awaited good news" ..."We remember all Ukrainians held in Russian captivity" ... "There was a long pause in the exchanges, but there was no pause in the negotiations regarding the exchanges. We seize every opportunity, try all mediation options. At every international meeting that can help the cause, we raise the issue of returning our captives. And we will continue this work to return our people … All our people."  The Russian Defense Ministry thanked the UAE for its mediation and reported that the exchange came as "a result of difficult negotiations."  In a statement to Russian media the ministry reported that the freed POWs are being given medical and psychological assistance and will undergo treatment and rehabilitation (quotations source: Business Insider)

Jan 4 Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree making it easier for Ukrainian children captured and being detained in orphanages or "adopted" by Russian parents to be made Russian citizens. (In an April 5, 2023 televised address to the United Nations, Russia's Commissioner for Children's Rights Maria Lvova-Belova identified the deportation as a humanitarian "evacuation," saving children from the horrors of war.) Ukraine reports that since the beginning of the invasion over 19,000 Ukrainian children have been deported to Russia and that only 387 have been returned.  Most of the children being detained are from the eastern regions later "annexed" to Russia.  The decree enables the Russian guardian of a child or the head of an organization responsible for the child (i.e., orphanage) to apply for citizenship for the child. Ukraine reacted with outrage, condemning the decree as a violation of international law.  Readers are reminded that in March 2023, the International Court of Justice ordered the arrest of Putin and Lvova-Belova for the criminal abduction of children. (See March 17, 2023 above.)

Jan 11 Across Sweden, nerves are jittery in response to Civil Defense Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin's remark that “there could be war in Sweden.” Bohlin was addressing the "People and Defense" conference, an annual meeting of defense and civil officials.  Sweden's long-time neutrality ended with its 2022 application for NATO membership, signaling a new direction for public consciousness. In short, Swedes are not used to the possibility of going to war as part of a military alliance. NATO support for Ukraine's war against Russia has intensified Russian xenophobia as it sees itself under greater threat. Bohlin said it was not his intention to "appeal to your fear, but rather to your situational awareness" in effect telling Swedes to be aware and prepared for future conflict. When asked to respond to Bohlin’s comments, Sweden’s military Commander-in-Chief Micael Bydén said he agreed with the minister, stating: “We need to prepare as far as possible, at all levels, throughout society.” (quotations source: CNBC News) 

At the same time Ukrainian president Zelenskyy was visiting the Baltic states.  On Jan. 10 he met with Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda in Vilnius.  Their discussion focused security matters, Ukraine's bids to join the EU and NATO, and collaboration in electronic warfare and drones.  In Tallinn on Jan.11, he met with Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, who announced that Estonia would provide Ukraine with $87.5 million in assistance over the next four years. In addition, a "memorandum of understanding" was signed "in support of defense partnerships ... including research and production of autonomous systems and electronic warfare equipment."  (quotation source: CNBC News) 

 Jan 17 In an address to the World Economic Forum (WEF) Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called for international endorsement of Ukraine's Peace Formula and stronger sanctions on Russia. "The terrorist state manufactures weapons, including missiles. There are dozens of critical components in each of them that were manufactured abroad, many of which were produced by companies from the free world," he said in a post on X. "Blocking sanctions evasion loopholes means literally blocking terror. I am grateful to all of our partners who understand this, as well as everyone around the world who supports our relevant efforts." (Quotation source: CNBC News)

 (The WEF meets annually in Davos, Switzerland. The 2024 meeting is Jan 15-19. Its purpose is identified above. See Jan 17, 2023.) 

Ukrainian parliament member Sasha Ustinova spoke to a bipartisan delegation of US Congress members, urging continued US support.  "Ukraine will not make it without the support of the world and especially the United States .... I want to be honest with you. I think everyone thinks Ukraine is winning. We're going to lose without you." President Biden's national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also met with Zelenskyy.  Sullivan stating, "The people of Ukraine are steeled for the struggle ahead. And the United States and our partners will continue to stand with them."  (author's comment: Readers are reminded that, owing to partisan resistance, a $60 billion aid package for Ukraine remains stalled in Congress.) 

In a question-and-answer session, Zelenskyy commented that as the US moves towards its presidential election, "radical voices from the Republican Party" have created "tension and caused pain for the Ukrainian people." ....  "In the time of war, everything hurts more, everything is more sensitive ... some of the radical voices really scare the society in Ukraine." .... "We need peace in the world. Peace in Ukraine means peace in Europe. It means peace in the world." (quotations source: New York Times)   

Jan 18  In reaction to an American proposal to resume strategic stability discussions, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov answered with a flat-out nyet. In a Moscow press conference Lavrov accused the West of destabilizing global security through its continued support for Ukraine, especially in encouraging drone attacks on Russia. Efforts by the US to revive discussion on nuclear weapon control, Lavrov stated, was motived by the desire to resume inspection of Russian nuclear weapons sites. “Amid a ‘hybrid war’ waged by Washington against Russia, we aren’t seeing any basis not only for any additional joint measures in the sphere of arms control and reduction of strategic risks, but for any discussion of strategic stability issues with the U.S.,” he said. “We firmly link such possibility to the West fully renouncing its malicious course aimed at undermining Russia’s security and interests.”..."The West is pushing toward the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis, and that raises new strategic risks.” 

Lavrov reaffirmed that Russia would pursue what it calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine regardless of Western pressure.  “We will consistently and persistently press the goals of the special military operation, and we will achieve them,” he said. “They should have no hope that Russia could be defeated in any way. Those in the West who fantasize about it have failed to learn history lessons.” (quotations source: Associated Press)

Jan 18  Pierre Levy, France's Ambassador to Russia was summoned to the Foreign Ministry in Moscow. He was informed that French mercenaries were among those killed in a recent battle with Russian forces near Kharkiv. There was no supporting evidence to the accusation.  French law prohibits mercenary activity. The State Duma (lower house of the Russian parliament) may take up the issue with a formal request to the French National Assembly asking if France sent mercenaries. 

Jan 18  Following two days of meetings of member defense chiefs in Brussels, NATO announced that it will soon commence Operation "Steadfast Defender 2024," a massive four-month military training exercise.  In making the announcement, NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe, US General Christopher Cavoli, stated that some 90,000 troops from all 31 NATO allies would be participating in the war games to be held in the Baltic and Eastern European regions and regional waters.  Although holding candidate status for NATO membership, Sweden will also participate.  "More than 50 ships from aircraft carriers to destroyers will take part, as well as more than 80 fighter jets, helicopters and drones and at least 1,100 combat vehicles including 133 tanks and 533 infantry fighting vehicles."  Cavoli said the drills would rehearse NATO's execution of its regional plans, the first defense plans the alliance has drawn up in decades, detailing how it would respond to a Russian attack. (quotations source: Reuters) 

Jan 18-19  Ukraine launched a series drone attacks against targets in Russia.  An oil storage depot in the western city Klintsy was struck, resulting in a massive fire. The Russian news agency TASS reported that four oil reservoirs with a total capacity of 6,000 cubic meters (1.6 million gallons) were set ablaze. Ukrainian media reported a drone attack on a gunpowder mill in Tambov, a city some 370 miles south of Moscow. Tambov Governor Maxim Yegorov, however, announced that the plant was working normally.   The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that its air defense intercepted and destroyed a drone on the outskirts of St. Petersburg. Wreckage fell in the city's oil terminal, the assumed target.  The Associated Press speculates the "strike apparently was the latest in a recently intensified effort by Ukraine to unnerve Russians and undermine President Vladimir Putin’s claims that life in Russia is going on as normal before its March 17 presidential election." Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has publicly stated that Ukraine will intensify its drone attacks inside Russia.  

(Author's comment: Ukrainian drone strikes in Russia unnerving?  It seems to be working, in Belgorod at least.  In response to the drone threat Belgorod canceled its traditional Orthodox Epiphany celebration.  The Russian Orthodox Epiphany is Jan. 19.)   

Jan 21 Russian authorities in the occupied city of Donetsk reported 25 civilians killed and another 20 wounded in a Ukrainian artillery attack on a suburban shopping center.  Russia’s foreign ministry denounced the strike, saying “security threats and acts of terrorism should not be committed from the territory of Ukraine”. In a statement, it added: “These terrorist attacks by the Kyiv regime clearly demonstrate its lack of political will towards achieving peace and the settlement of this conflict by diplomatic means.”  Ukrainian authorities did not comment on the attack. (quotation source: The Guardian)  Readers are reminded that Donetsk is the capital city of the Donetsk region.  The region was claimed annexed to Russia in 2022, but the  Russians do not have full control of the territory. 

Jan 22  In celebration of Ukraine's Unity Day, President Zelenskyy signed a decree titled "On the Territories of the Russian Federation Historically Inhabited by Ukrainians". The decree calls for the "restoration of truth" about Ukraine's history and safeguard the "national identity of Ukrainians" living in Russia.  The decree claims that several Russian regions bordering Ukraine are "historically  inhabited by Ukrainians." These Russian territories include Belgorod, Kursk, Byransk, and Krasnodar.  (Krasnodar lies east of Crimea along the western shores of the Azov and Black Seas.)  "We must take steps not only to strengthen the unity of Ukraine and our people, but also to act for the unity of rights and freedoms, the truth about Ukrainians, the truth about us, and the truth about our history" and that includes Ukrainians who live in parts of Russia that historically had been parts of Ukraine.  The Ukrainian government, Zelenskyy said, will develop a "plan for preserving the national identity of Ukrainians in the Russian Federation, including in lands historically inhabited by them."  Their testimonies on the forced Russification, political repression, and deportations they suffered should be recorded, according to the decree. (quotations source: Newsweek)  The decree calls for more work to counter "disinformation and propaganda of the Russian Federation regarding the history and present of Ukrainians in Russia."   The decree calls for the government to work with the National Academy of Sciences to develop materials about the "more than a thousand-year history of Ukrainian state formation, the historical connections of lands inhabited by ethnic Ukrainians, and Ukrainian national state formations in various historical periods." Educational textbooks should include the "true history of ethnic Ukrainians in the lands historically inhabited by them within the borders of the Russian Federation." (quotations source: Kyiv Independent)

(author's comment  Here's something scary, as if all that is written above over the last two years is not unsettling enough. The Week magazine (Jan. 26 2024 issue) references an article in the German tabloid Bild. Secret military documents leaked to the press see Russia defeating Ukraine in 2024 and invading neighboring countries in 2025. Russia would first conduct cyber attacks on Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania (NATO allies), provoking internal discontent and unrest within the Russian populations in those countries. Russia would then move troops and missiles into its Kaliningrad enclave, enabling the easy takeover of the strategic Suwałki Gap between Poland and Lithuania. (See July 23, 2013 above.) This would provoke war with NATO. The Week reports that German authorities "played down the story, saying that considering even implausible threats was "everyday military business.' "   The Week is a British/American news / opinion publication drawing on international news media that seeks to present a balanced perspective in its reporting.)

Jan  23  At the monthly video conference of the 50-nation Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG), Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced that the US was no longer able to contribute financially for the defense of Ukraine. (The UDCG? See April 26, 2022 above.)  Any future appropriations for US ammunition and weapons systems must wait until the Senate ends the impasse stalling approval of the $110 billion aid package for Ukraine and Israel. Of that, over $60 billion is slated for Ukraine. The package is also dependent upon the approval of the House of Representatives, which is likewise stalled due to Republican opposition. 

Addressing the UDCG membership, Austin said, "Ukraine's fight is important for all of our countries" ...."Ukraine's incredibly brave troops are continuing their battle against the Kremlin's invaders across a vast front line in Ukraine's east and south, in bitter winter weather. “I urge this group to dig deep to provide Ukraine with more lifesaving ground-based air defense systems and interceptors.”  The need for air defense and interceptors is certainly a priority.  Continuing its air assault, Russia, on Jan 23, struck Kyiv and Kharkiv with a barrage of some 40 missiles. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted at least 21 of the weapons, but the attack killed 18 and injured 130 civilians.  (quotation source: Newsweek)

The US has provided Ukraine with more than $44.2 billion worth of military assistance since the war began in 2022. About $23.6 billion of that was pulled from existing military stockpiles and almost $19 billion was sent in the form of longer-term military contracts, for items that will take months to procure. So even though funds have run out, some previously purchased weapons will continue to flow in. An additional $1.7 billion has been provided by the U.S. State Department in the form of foreign military financing.

The British newspaper The Guardian reported that in addition to providing financial assistance for armaments, the US and numerous allies are also training Ukrainian forces in their own countries. Of the 118,000 Ukrainians training abroad 18,000 have been trained in or by the US.

Jan 23  The Turkish Parliament approved Sweden’s bid for NATO membership. Hungary remains the only NATO state that has not approved Swedish membership, but Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán announced that he had invited Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson to visit Budapest to negotiate.  A specific date for such discussions was not set.  NATO membership requires the unanimous approval of all alliance partners and in each, the legislative body (as did the Turkish Parliament) must approve the membership.   

Jan 24  The Russian news agency TASS reported the crash of an Il-76 transport plane near the village of Yablonovo in the Bolgorod region.  All aboard the aircraft were killed.  The dead included the plane's crew and 65 others identified by Russia as Ukrainian PoWs (Prisoners of War). The PoWs were being taken to a location for a prisoner exchange meeting. Russia claimed the plane was shot down by a Ukrainian missile. Without denying the Russian accusation, Ukraine accused Russia  of intentionally putting the plane in jeopardy by not informing Ukraine of the flight's humanitarian purpose.  The flight paths of previous PoW exchange flights had been announced in advance. A second Russian transport carrying 80 PoWs returned to its airbase. 

At the United Nations headquarters in New York, visiting Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov commented that Ukraine would oppose any effort by Donald Trump to end the war should Trump be elected US President in 2024. Lavrov's remarks were in reference to Trump's comment that, as President, he could end the war in 24 hours. 

In an unexpected about-face, Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico announced that he would not oppose renewed sale of weapons to Ukraine.  Fico, appointed Prime Minister on Nov. 25, declared the end of Slovak armaments to Ukraine.  On Jan 24 Fico met with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Denys Shmyhal. "I told him about the atrocities of the Russians, about the bombing of the civilian population, about the kidnapping of Ukrainian children, about nuclear blackmail and the nuclear threat that Russia poses to the whole world," Shmyhal said.  They then issued a joint statement affirming  "the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders," expressing Slovak support for the Ukrainian peace proposal and emphasizing "the importance" of Ukraine and Slovakia "developing military-technical cooperation."  Shmyhal also stated that Fico expressed "his full support for Ukraine's European integration aspirations" and the European Union's "Ukraine facility program, which is set to give Kyiv aid worth $54.5 billion." (quotations source: Newsweek) 

  Jan 26 Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson announced that Swedish membership in NATO was not negotiable. (See Jan 23 above.) It is, however, anticipated that he and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will meet in March at the European Council conference in Brussels.  Such discussion could include "... Hungary's future presidency of the EU, support for Ukraine, and how to achieve maximum synergy from their respective air forces, which use the same fighter jet program – the Swedish JAS Gripen".   (quotation source: Reuters)  The presidency of the European Union rotates through its members. Hungary will hold the office starting July 1, 2024. Sweden currently holds the EU presidency.  The SAAB-built JAS-Gripen is a sophisticated fighter jet. In addition to Sweden and Hungary, the aircraft is part of the air forces of Austria, Brazil, Czech Republic, South Africa, and Thailand. (quotation source: Reuters)

Readers may not be aware, but on March 15 -17, 2024 Russia will hold a presidential election. Putin, of course, will seek – and assuredly gain – another six-year term. He will not, as in the past, be running as the candidate of the United Russia Party but as an independent.

Under the conditions of the Central Election Commission, aspiring presidential candidates from parties not already represented in the State Duma (Russian parliament) must file petitions, signed lists of voters from districts all across the country.  A spot on the ballot requires 105,000 signatures. Putin claims to have over three million.  In addition to Putin, the Commission has approved three other candidates, all from parties with parliamentary representation. In December the Commission barred Yetakarina Duntsova from the ballot. Duntsova, whose campaign called for restoring Russia’s future, is a former journalist and regional office-holder. She was outspoken in her criticism of the war in Ukraine. The Commission rejected her petitions because of “errors” in her paperwork. (Such errors proved to be largely typos.)

Russians, however, followed with interest the campaign of Boris Nadezhdin.  Nadezhdin, 60, was formerly a university professor, Duma member, and Moscow municipal councilor.  As his Civic Initiative Party does not have Duma representation, Nadezhdin campaigned across the country for petition signatures and submitted them to the Central Election Commission on Feb. 1. He called for ending of both the war in Ukraine and military conscription and wants Russia to seek dialogue with the West. He was also critical of Russia’s repression of LGBTQ+ activism. Online videos showed long lines of petitioners at polling places in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Krasnodar, Sartov, Yekaterinburg, and Yakutsk and other cities across the country.  One petitioner in St. Petersburg explained her support for Nadezhdin. “The economy is really falling, people are getting poorer, and prices are rising.” Putin has not done “anything good for the country.” (quotation source: Associated Press)

(author's comment: On Feb. 2 Russia's Central Election Commission announced that it was finding "irregularities" in Nadezhdin's petitions and on Feb. 8 disqualified him altogether. The Commission ruled that it found additional "irregularities" with 9000 petition signatures, just enough to deny him the 105,000-signature requirement for candidacy.  No surprise there at all.) 

Jan 28-29  A barrage of 158 Russian drones and missiles struck Kyiv and other cities across Ukraine, killing at least 30 and wounding over 160 others.  Ukrainian air defenses claimed to have intercepted and destroyed 114 of the incoming weapons. 

Jan 29  Russian President Vladimir Putin met in St. Petersburg with Belarussian President Viktor Lukashenko. The purpose of the meeting was to reaffirm the alliance between the two states. 

Jan 31 Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced the return of an additional 207 Prisoners of War (PoWs) in the latest prisoner exchange with Russia. Almost half of those returned were Mariupol defenders, captured in 2022.  The group consisted of 180 privates and sergeants, as well as 27 officers from the Armed Forces, National Guard, Border Guard, and National Police.  To date there have been 50 exchanges over which some 3035 Ukrainian PoWs have been returned.

Jan 31 In a rare break from its long tradition of neutrality, Switzerland began the export of 25 Leopard 2 tanks to Germany.  The former Swiss tanks will replace German tanks (also Leopards) sent to Ukraine. The agreement for the tank transfer prohibits Germany from sending the Swiss tanks to Ukraine. The German tanks already in Ukraine were the latest part of similar weapons systems sent from Britain and the US. Britain sent 14 Challenger 2 tanks in March, 2023, one of which was destroyed in battle in September. The US sent 31 Abrams tanks in September. The tanks are all operated and maintained by Ukrainian troops as part of the Ukrainian army.

Feb 1  At the opening session of the European Union Council summit meeting in Brussels Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán withdrew his threatened veto of the EU's four-year $54 billion aid package for Ukraine.  This reverses Hungary's opposition to the funding approved by the EU at its summit in December. (The EU requires the unanimous approval of its 27 members on any spending measure.)  Orbán required, however, that the aid program be reviewed in two years to assure the funds are being spent for the purposes designated and not siphoned off by corrupt officials  in Ukraine. He also revealed that the EU grant contains no money from Hungary.   (author's comment: It is speculated that Orbán's approval was motivated by the hope that the EU will release the some $30 billion being withheld from Hungary. See Dec. 14, 2023 above. And, just a reminder: partisan resistance continues to prevent congressional approval of the $61 billion Ukraine aid package proposed by President Biden in October 2023.)

In his daily evening radio address Ukrainian President Zelenskyy thanked the EU leaders for their approval of the $54 billion aid package for his country. “Europe has demonstrated exactly the kind of unity that is needed ... This is a clear signal to Moscow that Europe will withstand and that Europe will not be broken by any destructive waves that the Kremlin always comes up with,” .... “But at the same time, it is a clear signal across the Atlantic that Europe is taking on commitments. Security commitments. Strong commitments. We are waiting for America’s decisions.” (quotation source: CNBC)

Feb 1 The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense announced the destruction of a Russian naval vessel on Jan. 31. The ship was identified as the guided missile corvette Ivanovets. The ship was sunk by six USV sea drones off the coast of Crimea.   (USV? See Aug. 4, 2023 above.)  A naval corvette is a small, fast warship, equipped with various torpedo and missile systems and usually operates in coastal waters.  Russia is believed to have had three such ships in the Black Sea.  Ukrainian sea rescue personnel searched for survivors. 

Feb 3 France’s Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne said Russia would have to “answer for its crimes” after two French humanitarian volunteers were killed and three others were injured in a Russian missile strike in the Kherson region of Ukraine. Posting on the social platform X, Sejourne wrote, “Russian barbarity has targeted civilians in Ukraine .... France stands by their side. Russia will have to answer for its crimes,” French president Emmanuel Macron called the attack a “cowardly and unworthy act.”  (quotation source: CNBC)  

Feb 3  Authorities in the Russian-occupied Luhansk region claimed that 28 civilians, including a child, were killed by a Ukrainian rocket strike on a bakery in Lysychansk. The Russian foreign ministry reported that the building was most likely struck by a HiMAR rocket. (HiMAR? See June 1, 2022 above.)  Readers are reminded that Luhansk is among the four regions claimed to have been annexed to Russia in 2022. The other regions are Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Contested along the battlefront, none of these areas are under full Russian control.  

Feb 4  Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, announced that the House will vote on a "standalone" $17.5 billion aid package for Israel. Funding for Ukraine will not be considered by the House until the Biden administration agrees with Republican demands for greater US-Mexico border security. 

Feb 4 The Netherlands announced that it would be sending 24 US-made F-16 jet fighters to Ukraine but did not specify a future delivery date. Denmark, Belgium and Norway have also pledged F-16 fighters.  The earliest arrival of any of the planes would be in March or April as the Ukrainian pilots who would fly them are still in training.  (See March 16, 2023 above.) Flight training is taking place at air bases in Romania, Denmark, Britain, and the US.  France has announced that it will begin training pilots in the summer of 2024.  In addition to the training of pilots, the on-ground logistical services also have to be in place.  This requires the building of secure maintenance, repair, fuel, flight control, and armament storage facilities as well as the training of all on-ground service personnel.  

Feb 5 The US Senate in a procedural vote approved a bipartisan bill designating $118 billion in aid packages for Ukraine and Israel as well as new US-Mexican border immigration restrictions.  A procedural vote is not on a bill's content but the procedures upon which it will be considered for a final vote.  Readers are reminded that to become law the Senate bill must be approved by the House of Representatives.  House Speaker Mike Johnson declared that the Senate bill would be "dead on arrival."  "This bill is even worse than we expected, and won’t come close to ending the border catastrophe the president has created," he said in a statement on the social media platform X.  Johnson's remarks caused new controversy as the Senate must now review the bill, seeking changes in its content that might be more acceptable to the Republican majority in the House. (quotation source: Reuters) 

(author's comment: Media pundits see the Republican resistance to any new border restriction legislation as being encouraged by Donald Trump.  It's given that Trump will be the Republican candidate for President in the 2024 election and that Biden will be the Democrats' choice.  Chaos on the border will discredit Biden as it's happening on his watch. The last thing Trump wants is any border solution brought about under Biden's administration.  So, from Trump's point of view, border chaos is a good thing.  As for Ukraine, we know that Trump admires Putin and sees NATO as just wastefully sucking up American dollars. It is surmised that should Trump become president, he will take the US out of NATO.) 

Feb 7 In a statement posted on X, Poland's prime Minister Donald Tusk admonished US Republican senators for opposing continued aid for Ukraine. “Dear Republican Senators of America. Ronald Reagan, who helped millions of us to win back our freedom and independence, must be turning in his grave today. Shame on you.” (quotation source: Associated Press)

Feb 8  In an apparent shake-up in Ukraine’s military command, President Zelenskyy announced the dismissal of its Commander-in-Chief General Valeryy Zaluzhnyy. In a post on Telegram, Zelenskyy said he met with and thanked Zaluzhnyy for his loyal service and the two discussed the future of military command.  Zaluzhnyy, also posting on Telegram, wrote, “The tasks of 2022 are different from those of 2024. Therefore, everyone must change and adapt to the new realities as well….It was decided that we need to change our approaches and strategy." Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyy  was appointed Commander-in Chief.  (quotation source: CNN)   In March Zelenskyy appointed Zaluzhnyy as Ukraine's Ambassador to The United Kingdom (Britain).

Speaking of a change in strategy, back to the US Congress!  On Feb. 8 seventeen Republican senators, including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, joined with Democrats to begin debate on a on a revised bill that would provide $95.34 billion in assistance for Ukraine, Taiwan, Israel, and humanitarian relief in Gaza. The bill does not include the controversial border issue. The bill faces challenges. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer seeks an open amendments process. Some Senate Democrats want new conditions imposed on Israel, and other Republicans do not want to send more money to Ukraine as they do not see the war serving American interests.  Republican Senator Rand Paul (Kentucky) called the bill "rotten" and will not approve it unless it contains tough border restrictions. If the bill is approved by the Senate, it may, as has other bipartisan measures, be rejected by the House of Representatives. Republican Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene (Georgia) has threatened to call a vote to oust Speaker Mike Johnson if he allows another vote on aid for Ukraine. Democratic Senator Bernie Sanders (Vermont) voted against debating the bill saying he will not support a bill allowing Israel to "continue its horrific war against the Palestinian people."  (quotation source: Business Insider)  

Feb 9  A bipartisan group of four members of the US House of Representatives Intelligence Committee arrived in Kyiv to meet with President Zelenskyy. Speaking in a press conference, House Intelligence Chairman Mike Turner (Rep, Ohio) said, "We came today so that we can voice to President Zelenskyy and others that we are seeing that the United States stands in full support of Ukraine and is working diligently in the House of Representatives and the Senate to secure the funding that is necessary in 2024 for the U.S. support for Ukraine and their defense of Russia aggression." He assured that the debates over the recent $95.34 billion Senate bill were largely "... procedural and not substantive"...."There is overwhelming support in the House of Representatives and in the Senate for support for Ukraine. We certainly look forward to this legislative process being resolved."  The other members of the delegation are Republican French Hill (Arkansas) and Democrats Jason Crow (Colorado) and Abigail Spanberger (Virginia).  US Ambassador to Ukraine, Bridget Bank, commented that "Ukraine needs our assistance now. And I am personally quite grateful for the support of these members, as well as so many members of Congress." (quotation source: Kyiv Independent)   (author's comment: The Senate will be in recess between Feb 10 and 26, so  "assistance now" for Ukraine may have to wait.)  

Feb10   Speaking for nearly two hours at a Republican campaign rally in South Carolina, former President Donald Trump lambasted NATO. Under his presidency, he said, the US would not defend NATO allies against Russia if the allies fail to pay debts owed the US. "If we don't pay and we're attacked by Russia, will you protect us?" Trump recalled another country's leader asking while him while he was president. “You didn’t pay? You’re delinquent? '‘No I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them (the Russians) to do whatever the hell they want. You gotta pay. You gotta pay your bills."

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, said in a statement on Feb.11 that “any suggestion that allies will not defend each other undermines all of our security, including that of the U.S., and puts American and European soldiers at increased risk.”  White House spokesperson Andrew Bates responded to Trump’s comments by saying that “encouraging invasions of our closest allies by murderous regimes is appalling and unhinged – and it endangers American national security, global stability, and our economy at home.”   

Posting in all UPPER CASE letters on his social media site, Truth Social, Trump called for the end of foreign aid “WITHOUT “STRINGS” ATTACHED,” arguing that the U.S. should dramatically curtail the way it provides money.  Addressing the US Senate, “FROM THIS POINT FORWARD, ARE YOU LISTENING U.S. SENATE(?), NO MONEY IN THE FORM OF FOREIGN AID SHOULD BE GIVEN TO ANY COUNTRY UNLESS IT IS DONE AS A LOAN, NOT JUST A GIVEAWAY.”   He added that the US might loan money to other nations  “ON EXTRAORDINARILY GOOD TERMS,” with no interest and no date for repayment.  But he said that, “IF THE COUNTRY WE ARE HELPING EVER TURNS AGAINST US, OR STRIKES IT RICH SOMETIME IN THE FUTURE, THE LOAN WILL BE PAID OFF AND THE MONEY RETURNED TO THE UNITED STATES.”   (author's comment: One can imagine Putin's satisfaction with Trump's comments.)

Feb. 11  Appearing on the CBS television news commentary show "Face the Nation," Nikki Haley, Trump's rival on the Republican campaign trail, stated “NATO has been a success story for the last 75 years.” She added that after the 9/11 attacks, “... we (the US) needed a lot of friends. We can never get into the point where we don’t need friends. Now, we do want NATO allies to pull their weight. But there are ways you can do that without sitting there and telling Russia, have your way with these countries.”  Haley is a former governor of South Carolina and served as Trump's Secretary of State for two years.  (Feb 10 and 11quotations sources: NPR and Associated Press)  

"After Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine in 2014, NATO countries pledged to move toward spending 2% of their GDP (gross domestic product) on defense by 2024. According to data released in July 2023, only 11 of the 31 member countries have hit that target, with the United States contributing 3.49% of its GDP..." (quotation source: NPR) 

Feb 13 Russia issued arrest warrants for numerous officials in Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania, accusing them of being responsible for the destruction and/or removal of monuments celebrating the Soviet defense and liberation of their countries during World War Two. The charges include "desecration of historical memory" and "destroying monuments to Soviet soldiers", acts that are punishable by a five-year prison term under the Russian criminal code. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said: "This is only the beginning .... Crimes against the memory of the world's liberators from Nazism and fascism must be prosecuted."  (Readers are reminded that the three Baltic states had been part of the Soviet Union from 1940 to 1991.)  The Russian warrants carry  no weight within the boundaries of the three countries. It's only if the accused officials were to travel to Russia that they'd face arrest.  (quotations source: US News and World Report)

Feb 14   While almost daily Russian rocket and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities seem to have become commonplace, Russia may have set a new record on Valentine's Day.  Reports from across the country indicated the of the some 159 bomb, missile, and drone strikes, the number of those intercepted and destroyed as well as casualties and damage were not reported. 

On Feb. 14 Ukrainian authorities announced the sinking of another Russian warship.  The landing craft vessel, Caesar Kunikov, was reported hit in a sea drone attack off the southern coast of Crimea.  A Ropuchka Class assault ship, the Caesar Kunikov was the third vessel of that class to have been sunk since the war began in 2022. 

Feb 14 Back in the USA ... In a bipartisan vote of 70 to 29, the Senate passed the proposed $95.34 billion package to provide aid to Ukraine, Israel, and allies in the Indo-Pacific.  (See Feb. 9 above.) The package includes $60.6 billion in aid to Ukraine; $14.1 billion in in aid to Israel to assist with its war against Hamas; $2.44 billion for US Central Command to address combat expenditures for conflict in the Red Sea; $9.15 billion in humanitarian assistance to Ukraine and Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza; and $4.83 billion to support regional partners in the Indo-Pacific to push back against China. The bill now goes to the House of Representatives where it will probably die as it has no provision for stricter border regulations. 

Feb 16  On a visit to Hungary, Chinese Public Security Minister Wang Xiaohong met with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. The occasion was the 75th anniversary of establishing diplomatic relations between the two countries in 1949.  (In 1949 the Communists had come to power in China and Hungary was under a Communist regime established by Stalin.)  Readers will remember that even though Hungary is a member of both NATO and the EU, Orbán has taken an increasingly pro-Russian position on the war in Ukraine.  In recent weeks, he has wavered in his relationship with both international bodies. China actively seeks to weaken both NATO and the EU  and a closer relationship with Hungary would be to its advantage. That was in part achieved when Wang met with the Hungarian Interior Minister Sandor Pindar and signed documents on cooperation in counterterrorism, combating transnational crime, and expanding law enforcement capability, all of this being done as part of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).   (The BRI? See July 25, 2023 above.) Reflective of the growing relationship of the two nations was the announcement that Bǐyǎdí, China's electric vehicle manufacturer, plans to open its first European production factory in Hungary.  (Bǐyǎdí, anglicized "Build Your Dream" is the world's largest manufacturer of electric vehicles.) 

Feb 16  Russian state media outlets announced the death of Alexei Navalny, a long-time outspoken critic of the Putin regime.  Navalny, age 47, died in an Arctic maximum security-prison, where he had been held for "extremism and fraud" since 2021. The prison, some 40 miles north of Arctic Circle in Russia's Yamalo-Nenets region, is known as "Polar Wolf." Prison authorities said Navalny "felt unwell" but went for a walk and "almost immediately lost consciousness." 

Navalny, a lawyer, was well-known for his active opposition to Putin and intense investigation of corruption within the Russian President's inner circle of cronies and oligarchic enablers.  Although he did have a network of supporters who risked their own security by helping him spread his message, he was not the leader of a mass movement.  In 2018 Navalny ran for the Russian presidency, but was removed from the ballot.  In 2020 he was poisoned with a nerve agent and sought treatment in Germany.  Wherever he was he remained upbeat and personable in his public remarks.  He was arrested on his 2021 return to Russia. Particularly galling to Putin was Navalny's two-hour YouTube exposé of Putin's luxury estate and palace-like mansion on Russia's Black Sea coast.  The video was released by Navalny's followers just after his 2021 arrest.  (author's comment: There are numerous videos on YouTube featuring Putin's palace.)   Navalny, Daniel Roher's documentary film about his poisoning and imprisonment, won an Oscar in 2023.  Allowed video messaging in prison in January 2024, Navalny joked about being like Santa Claus, living as he did so close to the North Pole. 

Navalny was respected by foreign leaders who admired his courageous open defiance of tyranny.  In meeting with Putin in Geneva in 2021, President Biden warned that "Navalny’s death would be another indication that Russia has little or no intention of abiding by basic fundamental human rights."  Posting on the social platform X, French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné wrote "Navalny paid with his life for his resistance to a system of oppression. His death in a penal colony reminds us of the reality of Vladimir Putin's regime." Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda said, Navalny "didn't die in prison, he was killed by the Kremlin's brutality and its aim to silence the opposition. Russia's regime must face consequences. It must be brought to justice."  (Navalny-related quotations source: USA Today)   

The British news agency Reuters reported that Russian authorities presented Alexei Navalny's mother Lyudmila Navalnaya with an official death notice attributing her son's death to "sudden death syndrome."  She and Alexei's lawyer arrived at the prison on the morning of Feb. 17.   In a Zoom conference with Reuters, Kira Yarmysh, a spokesperson for Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation, said “We lost our leader, but we didn’t lose our ideas and our beliefs." She demanded that his body be handed over to his family. 

Russian authorities refused to render his body to Lyudmila until Feb. 24.  Spokesperson Yarmysh wrote on X, that a funeral is to come and that they don't yet know if authorities will allow the family to carry out the funeral "the way the family wants and as Alexei deserves." She did not mention if the family will hold a public funeral. (quotations source: Reuters)  Russian authorities eventually permitted the return of Navalny's body to Moscow. A funeral was held on March 1. See Mar. 1 below.  

New sanctions!  The international reaction among the US and Western nations was a new wave of sanctions imposed on Russia. President Biden announced sanctions primarily targeting businesses and individuals engaged in exports to of materials that could aid Russian military infrastructure.  Both the US and British sanctions named specific individuals associated with the Russian prison camp.  British sanctions included new bans on Russian metal, diamond, and energy exports.  The European Union sanctioned some 200 businesses and individuals named for helping Russia acquire weapons and the abducting  Ukrainian children. Those sanctions included arms shipments from North Korea to Russia. Such sanctions might be on any EU member business or shipping company used for arms shipments by either Russia or North Korea.  (While seemingly impressive as punishing hindrances on Russian commerce, sanctions are only as effective as the willingness of businesses and sanctioned individuals to honor them. It is doubtful that Russian prison authorities would be traveling to either the US or Britain.)  

Since the war began in Feb. 2022, the US, EU, and other countries have hit Russia with over 16,500 sanctions. Most sanctions have targeted Russian financial assets such as foreign currency reserves and banks and imports of Russian gold and diamonds. Sanctions have also banned the exporting  of weapons-related technology, the termination of passenger and freight airline flights to and from Russia, and any foreign assets (such as properties, bank accounts, and businesses) belonging to wealthy Russian businessmen linked to Putin. (The oligarchs!  See the explanation of The Russian Oligarchs, April 14, 2022 above.)   

Feb 17  In what appears to be a strategic setback, Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy announced that Ukrainian forces had been withdrawn from the Donetsk city of Avdiivka.  Once an industrial center of over 31,000 people, the city, became a battlefront early in the 2022 Russian invasion. Besieged by the Russians on three fronts, thousands of its citizens fled, but Ukrainian defenders managed to keep a supply line open. In January and February 2024 dwindling deliveries of troops, food, ammunition, and other needed materials compelled Ukraine's new military commander-in-chief General Oleksandr Syrskyy to order the retreat.  

Like Mariupol and Bakhmut, Avdiivka now becomes a symbol of Ukrainian resistance.  While the city had fallen to the Russians, the overall battlefront remains stalemated.  Still, the lack of ammunition is a telling sign of Ukraine's dependence upon aid from other nations. Readers are reminded that the some $60 billion designated for Ukraine as part of a wider aid package bill remains stalled in the US Congress.  

Zelenskyy was attending the 60th annual meeting of the Munich Security Conference (MSC) at the time of his announcement on Avdiivka. (The MSC? See Feb. 15, 2023.)  He again appealed for MSC support for Ukraine saying, “Please, everyone remember that dictators do not go on vacation” (a reference to both houses of the US Congress having recessed for two weeks on Feb.16).

Representing the US at the MSC were Vice President Kamala Harris and Secretary of State Antony Blinken.  At the podium Harris assured the assembly of continued US support for Ukraine and the US commitment to democracy despite those Americans "wanting to isolate (the US) ... "embrace dictators" and abandon  commitments to our allies in favor of unilateral action" ... "Let me be clear: that worldview is dangerous, destabilizing and indeed short-sighted. That view would weaken America and would undermine global stability and undermine global prosperity. "These are questions the American people must also ask ourselves: whether it is in America’s interest to continue to engage with the world, or to turn inward. Whether it is in our interest to defend longstanding rules and norms that have provided for unprecedented peace and prosperity, or to allow them to be trampled. Whether it is in America’s interest to fight for democracy or to accept the rise of dictators. And whether it is in America’s interest to continue to work in lockstep with our allies and partners or go it alone."  (quotations source: The Guardian)  She praised the European Union and NATO for standing with Ukraine by increasing their defense spending, and assured that the US would stand with them. (Readers are reminded that former President Trump had recently been adamant in his criticism of NATO, saying its members have not paid their "debts" to the US and therefore forfeit US protection.  See Feb. 10, 2024 above.)  

Receiving a standing ovation, Yulia Navalnaya, Alexei Navalny's widow, also addressed the MSC. She was there, she said, because her husband would have been there if that were possible. Accusing Putin and his government of lying about the "accidental" nature of Alexei's death: "I would like Putin and all his staff – everybody around him, his government, his friends – I want them to know that they will be punished for what they have done with our country, with my family and with my husband. They will be brought to justice, and this day will come soon. And would like to call upon all the international community, all the people in the world, we should come together and we should fight against this evil. We should fight this horrific regime in Russia today. This regime and Vladimir Putin should be personally held responsible for all the atrocities they have committed in our country the last years.” (quotation source: The Guardian)  

Feb 21  The Russian victory in Avdiivka and the apparent inability of the US Congress to fund future arms and ammunition shipments to Ukraine, appears to be giving Russia the upper hand on the battlefront. Recent comments by Donald Trump disparaging NATO are likewise encouraging to Russia, in effect saying why fight a losing war?  On Feb. 23 Alabama Republican Senator Thomas Tuberville told the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC)'s annual meeting that  “I haven’t voted for any money to go to Ukraine because I know they can’t win.”  

Feb 21  Armenia announced that it would suspend its membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Russia's equivalent of NATO.  Armenia contends Russia did not honor its treaty obligation when in September 2023 Azerbaijan launched a military operation to take Nagorno-Karabakh, a Caucasus region claimed and bitterly contested by both countries.  Russian troops had been in Nagorno-Karabakh as peacekeepers but were withdrawn before the Azerbaijani incursion from which some 100,000 Armenians fled.  Like NATO, the CSTO is based on the principle that an attack on ally one is an attack on all.   (The CSTO? See Nov. 23, 2023 above.) 

A Russian victory in Ukraine would encourage a Russian take-over of the Baltics.  Latvian Prime Minister Evika Silina was vehement in her comments to Newsweek as reported on Feb. 21. "When you start to believe you have lost, you really have lost .... We cannot fall into a trap of starting to believe that we have lost .... What's the option then? Will you be joining Russia? Definitely not. So, wake up, get up from the couch and start doing the best you can do for your country and for yourself."  Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia have long been urging greater aid for Ukraine and harsher measures on Russia.  "Such a regime as Putin's regime, he is using our own values against us, our own tools against us, our own international treaties against us," she said. "They know it's our weakness .... We have to remember that we are policy makers, we can change our rules, but still remain true to the same values. It is very important to remember that ...  We have been living through hybrid threats for two years already through our borders .... Massive migrations have been pushed over as hybrid attacks from Belarus, and from Russia .... We have built a fence along the border with Belarus, and it's also an external border for the European Union. And we are building a fence with Russia, it's also an external border for Europe. And if we will not do those things, probably it will be a problem for France, and the U.K., and Germany .... We are the front runners, we are at the front line," Silina said. Other NATO allies are warning that the alliance faces a resurgent Russian military threat within less than a decade, despite Moscow's mauling in Ukraine.  "I cannot say there is a three- or five-year timeline for the threat, but we understand .... We see Ukraine winning. But yes, after this, Russia will again gain capabilities to attack someone else. And it could be five years, it could be three years, it depends which tools they will decide to use.

Asked by Newsweek how allies should respond, Silina said, "By sending more help to Ukraine, by giving an opportunity to free Russian journalists to speak out here abroad. For example, Latvia is a hub of exiled Russian journalists, who spoke differently than the regime, and they can send the message to Russian people as well."  Most important, she said, is weapons for Kyiv, "and not just for them to survive, but to win; that's a big difference, that's a big shift of paradigm .... We really need to help them more. And also, not just militarily and politically, but also they have issues with trade and economic issues. We need to give them opportunities to grow and to live normal lives as well, in the regions where there are no war zones." Asked if any diplomatic solution were possible, she responded, "There will be no such diplomatic solution with Putin. So, I can only agree with Ukrainians. It's their house, it's their homeland, it's their sovereign territory, and only they can decide."

Asked about sanctions on Russia, Silina answered, "We are very serious about the sanctions .... We still have only some points open with Russia and Belarus for transit because there is this united European agreement with third countries to provide food for them. But yes, it would be much easier for us just to close everything. But then we need a common European decision for that. And we don't have it .... It's really, really difficult for countries like us to manage all the big border line with Russia." 

Newsweek commented that the coming year will pose "a myriad of challenges to NATO. First, the alliance must choose its next leader. Outgoing Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte appears in poll position to succeed Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, though not everyone is pleased by the prospect of a Western European leader whose country (Netherlands) has consistently failed to hit its NATO spending obligations. (NATO membership requires its members to allocate two percent of its defense spending to the alliance.) "Central and Eastern Europe has to be satisfied with the leader NATO chooses, because this person should represent our interests as well, and has to understand the real risks we are facing every day," Silina said. "They have to understand not just theoretically, they really have to understand what it means to find a solution politically to spend 2 percent—and even more—on your defense." (quotations source: Newsweek)

Feb 22  There were signs that Hungary will approve NATO membership for Sweden on Feb. 26. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán explained the 18-month delay as being opposition by some in his Fidesz Party who are offended by Swedish politicians accusing Hungary of being anti-democratic.  Hungary's air force, however, leases Swedish-made JAS Gripen jet fighters and wants more.  (See Jan. 26 above.)  It's not just the planes that Hungary wants but other arms as well.  (author's comment: Opposition to his policy from Orbán's party is purely window dressing.  He is in control, and any "opposition" is at his command. Here, it's politick to make it seem as though he's being restrained by elements of his own party. Such delays will make Sweden more accommodating.)  

Feb. 23 Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson flew to Budapest where he met with Orbán and sealed a military agreement whereby Sweden will provide more Gripen jets for Hungary.  In a press conference, Orbán remarked, "To be a member of NATO together with another country means we are ready to die for each other.... A deal on defense and military capacities helps to reconstruct the trust between the two countries." (quotation source: Associated Press)

 Feb 24 marked the second anniversary of the Russian "special military operation, " the invasion of Ukraine.  Putin's justification?  Russia was obligated to defend Russian Ukrainians from persecution and genocide by Zelenskyy's "Nazi" regime and "demilitarize" Ukraine to make it no longer a threat to Russia's security.  In a solemn acknowledgement of the anniversary, President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked those nations that have been supporting Ukraine's war effort. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen were in attendance as Zelenskyy spoke.  

Feb 26  In a vote of 188 to six, the Hungarian parliament, as anticipated, approved Sweden's NATO membership. This brings NATO membership to 32 nations.  Sweden will officially join the alliance on March 11.

Feb 27   Speaking at a meeting of the Atlantic Council, Poland's Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski sharply criticized US House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson, in effect accusing the Speaker denying Ukraine the military assistance it needs to resist Russia. That assistance is the $61 billion aid package now stalled in the House.  Johnson, Sikorski said, "has in the past spoken warmly about Ukraine" but now shows no interest in helping Ukraine fight the war.  "Therefore I'd like him to know that the whole world is watching what he would do and if the supplemental [aid package] were not to pass and Ukraine was to suffer reversals on the battlefield it will be his responsibility."  

Seeking to end the stalemate and secure continue government funding, President Biden hosted a White House meeting with Johnson, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, and Vice President Kamala Harris. Democratic leaders commented that the meeting was "intense."  Speaking to reporters after the meeting, Johnson said, "we'll get the government funded" and the Republican Party's top priority remains US border security.  (quotations source: Newsweek)   Headquartered in Washington, DC, the Atlantic Council is a "think tank," a non-governmental research organization that focuses on areas of international concern. 

Funding for the continued operation of the US government expires in early March.  Funding for agriculture, transportation, military construction and some veterans’ services expire on March 2nd.  Funding for the rest of the government, including the Department of Defense, Department of Homeland Security, and State Department expires on March 8th. Much of Biden's agenda in the Feb. 27 meeting was aimed at getting congressional leadership to work for passage of funding the federal government.  

Feb 27  Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy traveled Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, where he met with the Saudi ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS). Their discussions centered primarily on pursuit of a peace plan and release of Ukrainian prisoners of war. Zelenskyy's visit followed by a day MbS's having received a delegation of Russian diplomats.  MbS sees himself as a sort of arbiter between the two warring states in seeking some sort of workable peace settlement.  He has also been instrumental in arranging exchanges of prisoners of war. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar — all neighbors on the Arabian Peninsula — have been involved in prisoner exchanges since the war broke out in 2022.  Following a day of talks, Zelenskyy departed for Albania. 

Feb 28 In another "kick-the-can-down-the-road" action, US congressional leaders approved an extension measure to assure government spending for another few weeks, making March 8th and 12th the expiration dates. However, this requires congressional approval by next week for six of the 12 appropriations bills that fund the departments of Agriculture, Commerce, Justice, Interior, Energy, Veterans Affairs, Transportation, and Housing and Urban Development. Lawmakers would then have two more weeks to pass the remaining six spending bills that include funding for the departments of Defense, Homeland Security, State, Health and Human Services, and Labor.  

In Russia another human rights advocate was sentenced to prison. Oleg Orlov, a co-chairman of the Russian human rights organization Memorial, was sentenced by a Moscow court to 30 months for his public criticism of the war in Ukraine.  He was convicted for "discrediting" the Russian army in an op-ed for French media. In his article Orlov wrote that Russian troops were committing "mass murder" in Ukraine and that Putin has been making  Russia "fascist".  Russian prosecutors claimed that Orlov’s article had “a motive of enmity and hatred toward military personnel.” Orlov told the court in his closing statement that he rejected the charges against him. “I don’t regret anything, and I don’t repent anything,” he said.  Amnesty International issued a public statement that “Today’s sentencing of Orlov is the result of a sham trial enacted by the Russian authorities to punish a prominent state critic and instill fear among those who dare to speak up against the war in Ukraine.” (quotations source, Time)  (Will Orlov survive his imprisonment?  Readers are reminded of the recent in-prison death of Russian dissident Alexei Navalny. See Feb. 16, 2024 above.)

Memorial was founded in 1989 during the last years of the Cold War.  Facing constant opposition by authorities during the Yeltsin and Putin years, the Russian chapter of the organization in 2021 was declared a "foreign agent" and ordered disbanded. The Memorial movement continues to exist through branches in other countries, the largest and most active being in Germany. In 2022 the Nobel Prize for Peace had three recipients, Memorial being one of them. 

Feb 28 -29 Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelelnskyy traveled to Tirana, Albania, for the Ukraine-Southeast Europe Summit. There he met with leaders from Albania, Bulgaria, Serbia, North Macedonia, Kosovo, Bosnia, Montenegro, Croatia, Moldova, and Romania to discuss matters of peace, security, and cooperation. Representatives from the EU administration were also in attendance.  In a press conference, Zelenskiy alluded to the US Congress, calling delays in providing assistance for Ukraine a “gift” to Russia.  While no definitive action was taken by the participants, it was agreed that they would meet again in Switzerland later in the spring.

(Author's comment: Recent updates here have focused on other matters than military, but readers are reminded that the war continues. Over the night of Feb. 24-25, Russia launched rocket and drone strikes against targets in the Kyiv, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.  Ukraine's Air Force Command reported the destruction of 16 of the incoming Shehad drones. Casualties and damage were reported as light.  Along the battlefront, Russian troops forced a Ukrainian withdrawal from two small villages near the recently captured city of Avdiivka.) 

Feb 29  Speaking for more than two hours, Russian President Vladimir Putin made dire warnings to the West in his annual State of the Nation address. He accused the West of trying to weaken Russia by meddling in Russia's internal affairs. How? Through allied and EU support for Ukraine. This meddling, he said, was dangerous and could provoke nuclear war if they sent troops to Ukraine. (He was responding to a Feb. 25 remark made by French President Emmanuel Macron that NATO may possibly be compelled send ground troops to aid Ukraine. The French President's comments were quickly disavowed by the US and other allied states and later walked back by Macron.  Readers are reminded that NATO is a defensive alliance based on the deterrence principle that an attack on one ally is an attack on them all requiring a unified response by all 32 members.  The Western nations, Putin said, "must realize that we also have weapons that can hit targets on their territory. All this really threatens a conflict with the use of nuclear weapons and the destruction of civilization. Don't they get that?!"  Russia's "strategic nuclear forces are in a state of full readiness."   Reminding his audience of the failed invasions of Russia by Napoleon and Hitler, Putin warned that the consequences of an invasion "will be far more tragic." (quotation source: Reuters)

Mar 1 Thousands of mourners turned out for the funeral of dissident Alexei Navalny.  The funeral took place at the Church of the Icon of the Holy Mother Soothe My Sorrows in Moscow.  Navalny's parents Anatoly and Lyudmila attended the service. His widow, Yulia, his son, Zakhar, and daughter, Dasha, did not as they live outside Russia and were concerned for their safety should they be there. The service was attended by the ambassadors of the United States, Germany, and France as well as by diplomats from numerous other countries. 

Following the service Lyudmila was hugged and thanked by mourners. In a farewell message to her husband posted on X, Yulia thanked her husband for "26 years of absolute happiness." The message included a video of clips showing them together.  

Despite the heavy police presence, mourners chanted “Russia will be free”, “No to war”, “Russia without Putin”, “We won’t forgive,” "Love is betther than fear," and “Putin is a murderer." In an Instagram post on Friday, Navalny’s daughter, Dasha, vowed to “live my life the way you taught me, to make you proud, and most importantly, with the same bright smile on my face.”  

The European Union offered its condolences. In a tweet on Friday, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell wrote: “EU expresses its condolences to Alexei Navalny’s family and  friends as he is laid to rest. EU Ambassador and other diplomats are paying respects. Navalny’s beliefs will not disappear-ideas cannot be tortured, poisoned or killed. He remains an inspiration for many in Russia and  beyond.” The US Embassy issued a statement, calling Navalny  a “shining example of what Russia could and should be .... His death is a tragic reminder of the lengths the Kremlin will go to silence its critics. Our hearts go out to his family, friends, supporters, and  all those he has inspired to work for a brighter future." (quotation sources: The Guardian and Reuters)  

Following the funeral service, Navalny was buried in Moscow's Borisovsky cemetery.  As his coffin was lowered into the ground,  the music played was a recording of Frank Sinatra's " My Way."

It is estimated that more than a quarter of a million people watched the funeral on Navalny's YouTube channel, which is blocked inside Russia. Russian state media gave little coverage to the funeral.  Asked to comment on the event, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov refused to say anything about Navalny and added that he had nothing to say to Navalny’s family.

Mar 1 Alexander Stubb, formerly one of Finland's prime ministers, was inaugurated as the new Finnish President. Addressing the nation, he announced that Finland "is facing a new era" as a NATO member and that he would be observing NATO training military training exercises in neighboring Norway. Identified as "Nordic Response," some 30,000 troops from all 32 NATO members will conduct a 12-day (March 3 -14) training exercise in the Arctic  environment. It will be Finland's first participation in NATO maneuvers. 

(author's comment: Does Russia have reason to be concerned by this?  Readers are reminded that Russia's major naval base at Murmansk is a relatively short distance from Norway. Both nations share an Arctic border.  Murmansk is the headquarters of Russia's Northern Fleet, and a major base for Russia's nuclear submarines.  Why base subs there?  In spite of its Arctic location, Murmansk is a warm-water port. At the Arctic end of the Gulf Stream, the ocean's waters do not freeze. Murmansk is also Russia's only seaport with direct access to open seas.  All others are not. St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad are locked into the Baltic Sea, now completely surrounded by NATO members.  Rostov-on-Don and Sevastopol in Crimea are locked into the Black Sea and the Turkish Straits to the Mediterranean. Turkey is a NATO member.  Russian naval vessels in the Mediterranean Sea must then pass through the Strait of Gibraltar which is controlled by Britain, a NATO member.  In the Far East, Russia's major port, Vladivostok is on the Sea of Japan, with access to the open Pacific blocked by Japan and South Korea, both US allies.  Access to open seas has been Russia's strategic nemesis and, for centuries, a driving motivation for Russian expansion which takes us back to where we began this epic chronicle.  Does Russia have reason to be concerned about 30,000 NATO troops conducting war games a short distance from a strategic naval base? I think that question answers itself.

As previous chapters - Chapter 7 in particular - have indicated, Russia's history has in large part been based on xenophobic expansion. Here's what I wrote at the beginning of this chronicle.  "The rationale here is that we are not safe until we control the peoples around us. Oh good, we conquered them. Wait. There are now others around us. We have to conquer them. That xenophobia seemingly has fed Russian autocracy ever since the Mongol invasions of the 13th century. The autocracy then perpetuates and strengthens itself through that xenophobia. Clearly an autocrat, Putin sees Russia surrounded by potential enemies. In the West those enemies are the NATO alliance and the European Union. Ukraine must be prevented from joining both.")

Mar 2 A Russian drone and missile attack seemed to target a residential section of Odesa. Twelve civilians were killed, among them five children, one as young as seven months.  Commenting, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis called the attack "absolutely outrageous murder. By deliberately killing babies in their sleep, Russia is declaring a clear contempt for any peace agreements, past or future. There must be serious and immediate consequences, not continued impunity." (quotation source: Reuters) 

Mar 4-5  Overnight, a Ukrainian sea drone attack near the Kerch Strait sank another Russian patrol vessel.  The Sergei Kotov was a 308-foot long 1500-ton patrol ship, launched in 2021. In addition to its cannon and missile armaments, the ship carried a helicopter. Initial reports on deaths and injured from the ship's 80-man crew, have not yet been confirmed, but there were at least seven fatalities. The Kotov was the third Russian warship to be sunk in the last five weeks. 

March 5 also saw the International Criminal Court (ICC) issue warrants for the arrest of two high-ranking Russian military commanders, Admiral Viktor Sokolov and Air Force General Sergei Kobylash. Sokolov had earlier (February 2024) been relieved of his command following embarrassing losses of Black Sea Fleet vessels.  Kobylash oversaw long-range aerial attacks against Ukrainian civilian targets across Ukraine. The ICC sees the two as responsible for war crimes, including "directing attacks at civilian objects." In a statement to the media, the ICC said "There are reasonable grounds to believe that the two suspects bear responsibility for missile strikes carried out by the forces under their command against the Ukrainian electric infrastructure from at least 10 October 2022 until at least 9 March 2023."  Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov gave Russia's response on March 6; "We don't recognize this."  (quotation source: Newsweek) The ICC? See March 17, 2023 above.  (Readers are remined that the ICC issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Putin on March 17, 2023. The warrant is valid only in those nations belonging to the ICC.)  

Mar 8 Li Hui, China's Special Representative for Eurasian Affairs, was in Kyiv, a hours-long stop on a European tour. China's relationship with Russia has been troubling for Ukraine and the West as it has increased its trade with Russia and has blamed Ukraine and its allies for starting the war.  Ukrainian officials, meeting with Li,  described the conditions on the battlefront and Russian drone and missile attacks on civilians, but apparently did not make much of an impression.  In a news release, China stated only that "Li arrived in Kyiv by train at noon, held candid and friendly talks, and departed by train that same evening."  The Ukrainian press release on Li's visit  reported that discussions covered "the possibility of China’s assistance in prisoner exchanges, the return of Ukrainian children in Russia and the return of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant." (quotations source: Associated Press) 

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy traveled to Istanbul, Turkey, to meet with Turkish President Recep Erdogan.  Turkey is a member of NATO but retains close ties with Russia. This has proved somewhat of a challenge for Erdogan as he strives to maintain good relations with both.  Ever since the war began, he has offered to broker peace. The closest he came was the Black Sea Grain Initiative (See July 22, 2022 above.), but that cooperative humanitarian program collapsed in the summer of 2023 when Russia refused to renew it.   In addition to talks, Zelenskyy visited a Turkish shipyard where two Ukrainian corvettes (naval vessels) are under construction. 

Mar 9  Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán met with former US President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago, Trump's resort in Florida. At a concert in honor of Orbán, Trump lauded him saying, “There’s nobody that’s better, smarter or a better leader than Viktor Orbán. He’s fantastic.”  Orbán, Trump added, is “a noncontroversial figure because he (Orbán) said, ‘This is the way it’s going to be,’ and that’s the end of it, right? He’s the boss and … he’s a great leader, fantastic leader. In Europe and around the world, they respect him.”  Following the meeting, Orbán said he and Trump were aligned on the war in Ukraine and that Trump would not give “a single penny” to Kyiv if elected.  Orbán was in the US for President Biden's State of the Union speech. (quotation source: The Hill)  

Orbán came to power in Hungary in 2010 as leader of the right-wing Fidesz Party (Fiatal Demokraták Szövetsége meaning Alliance of Young Democrats). His political identity can be described as populist, nationalist, anti-immigration, and anti-democratic. He calls it "illiberal democracy." While Hungary remains a member of NATO and the EU, its role in both has been less than cooperative as Orbán seeks closer ties with Russia and China. 

Mar 10 In an interview with a Swiss television service, Pope Francis remarked that Ukraine should have the “courage of the white flag” and negotiate an end to the war with Russia. The Pope’s words prompted a swift response from Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kubela. “Our flag is a yellow and blue one. This is the flag by which we live, die, and prevail. We shall never raise any other flags …. The strongest is the one who, in the battle between good and evil, stands on the side of good rather than attempting to put them on the same footing and call it ‘negotiations.’”  Speaking to Ukrainians in New York, the head of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church, Archbishop Sviatoslav Shevchuk said “Ukraine is wounded, but unconquered” and that no one is thinking about making concessions. “I want to tell you one thing from the people of Ukraine ….Ukraine is exhausted, but it is standing and will stand! Believe me, no one even thinks of surrender, even in the places where fighting is ongoing today.”  Offering an explanation, Matteo Bruni, the Director of the Vatican press office, said “the Pope picked up the image of the white flag, proposed by the interviewer, to indicate a cessation of hostilities, a truce reached with the courage of negotiation,” and not surrender as some may have interpreted his remarks. Commenting on X, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski wrote, “How about, for balance, encouraging Putin to have the courage to withdraw his army from Ukraine. Peace would immediately ensue without the need for negotiations.” Lativan President Edgards Rinkēvičs, also on X, wrote, “One must not capitulate in [the] face of evil, one must fight it and defeat it, so that the evil raises the white flag and capitulates.”  Alexandra Valkenburg, the head of the EU delegation to the Vatican said on X that “Russia started an illegal and unjustified war against Ukraine two years ago” and “can end this war immediately” by respecting Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.  (quotations source: CNN)

Mar 11 In a ceremony at NATO headquarters in Brussels, the flag of Sweden was raised in the official flag circle, signifying Sweden's membership in the  alliance.  In attendance were NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and Sweden's Crown Princess Victoria. In addressing the “The Russian, brutal, full-scale invasion against Ukraine," Kristersson said, "united Sweden behind the conclusion that a full-fledged NATO membership is the only reasonable choice. ”  (quotation source: Associated Press)

Reports from the Russian media service Izvestia affirm the dismissal of Admiral Nikolai Yevmenov, commander of Russia's Black Sea fleet. Yevmenov had held command since 2019, but embarrassing losses of Russian warships through Ukrainian drone and missile attacks had undermined confidence in his leadership.  It is reported that he has been replaced by Admiral Alexander Moiseev. 

Mar 12 US President Joe Biden announced a new $300 million aid package for Ukraine. The new package is not the result of congressional action. That $60 billion aid bill has been stalled in the House of Representatives since mid-February. The new funding comes from savings made in weapons contracts. The Defense Department reported that the package includes “stinger anti-aircraft missiles, additional ammunition for HIMARS, 155 millimeter artillery rounds, including high explosive and dual purpose improved cluster munition rounds, 105 millimeter artillery rounds, AT4 anti-armor systems, additional rounds of small arms ammunition, demolitions, munitions for obstacle clearing, spare parts, maintenance and other ancillary equipment.”  Announcing the package, Biden stated that it was  “not nearly enough,” and Congress needs to pass additional funding. “We must act before it literally is too late, before it’s too late, because as Poland remembers, Russia won’t stop at Ukraine ....Putin will keep going, putting Europe, the United States the entire free world at risk...”  (quotations source: CNN)

Mar 13  Overnight Ukraine launched drone strikes targeting oil refineries in Russia's Ryazan and Rostov regions.  These attacks followed a March 12 strike on a refinery In Nizhny Novgorod.  Since January Ukraine has conducted drone attacks on Russia's oil infrastructure, seeking to weaken its economy.  About 50% of Russia's refining capacity is within range of a Ukrainian drone attack.   The strategy seems to be working.  Over the winter Russian cities suffered serious shortages of heating oil, causing a great deal of citizen discomfort and dissatisfaction.  The latest attacks are intended to undermine the March 15-16 presidential election.  Among the consequences, however, are a general rise in oil prices for those nations importing Russian oil. Russia is a major international oil exporter, either by pipeline or ocean traffic. Both China and North Korea import Russian oil, but so do Belarus, Slovakia, Hungary, Turkey Belgium, Netherlands, Italy, Czech Republic, Spain, South Korea, Japan, Singapore, India, and Brazil.  With Russia's supply of exported oil and other fossil fuels such as coal and natural gas shrinking, the costs for international purchasers will rise and be passed on to consumers.

Mar 13  In Washington President Biden met with Poland's President Andrzej Duda and Prime Minister Donald Tusk. The occasion was to celebrate the 25th anniversary of Poland's joining NATO. In their meeting the Polish leaders pressed Biden to use his influence to urge NATO members to increase their defense spending to 3% of their GDP.  In 2014 NATO urged its members to dedicate at least 2% of their GDP to defense, but has no way to enforce such conditions. Biden responded that the priority should be compelling all NATO members to reach the 2% first.  (See Feb. 11 above.)

 Mar 15  The Ukrainian port city of Odesa was hit by two Russian missile strikes, a "double tap" in military parlance. The second strike targeted the same section of the city and was believed to be intended to kill rescue workers and medical first responders. Early estimates numbered 20 dead and 75 injured in an area of the city that was primarily residential.  President Zelenskyy referred to the attacks as "vile acts" perpetrated by "scum." 

The European Commission announced awards totaling €500 million (roughly $545 million) for several European munitions companies, enabling them to increase ammunition production.  "This will allow the European defense industry to ramp up its ammunition production capacity to two million shells per year by the end of 2025," it said. Ukraine's armies are increasingly strained by depleting supplies of ammunition, a situation that could prove disastrous on the front lines where Russia has renewed its offensive. Funding for munitions is also a significant piece of the aid package that has been stalled in the US Congress since February. 

Still Mar 15 ....  In a meeting of the "Weimar Triangle," German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met with French President Emmanuel Macron and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Berlin. Founded in 1991 in the German city of Weimar, the "Triangle" is a regional alliance of Germany, France, and Poland. Its meetings are on an as-needed basis. Ukraine has been a primary focus of the group since the war began in 2022.  Recent disagreements between France and Germany over strategy on how to assist Ukraine more effectively have given the meeting its focus, especially as US aid for Ukraine remains stalled in Congress.  At an end-of-meeting press conference Scholz announced solidarity in providing arms for Ukraine. “Starting immediately, we will procure even more weapons for Ukraine, on the overall world market .... Secondly, the production of military equipment will be expanded, including through cooperation with partners in Ukraine”.  The purchase of new weapons, Scholz said, will come the earnings of frozen Russian assets seized when the war began. That was it. The three leaders gave no details and took no questions. (quotation source: AP)

The urgency of increased and immediate aid for Ukraine became more pronounced when Josep Borrell, the European Union's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, met with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and others at the State Department in Washington on March 14. His message was that Ukraine was running out of time.  Speaking to reporters, Borrell warned that the "The next months will be decisive. Many analysts expect a major Russian offensive this summer, and Ukraine cannot wait until the result of the next US elections," "Whatever has to be done, it has to be done quickly .... It's true for us (meaning the EU). We have to speed up. We have to increase our support, to do more and quicker. That's why we are increasing our industrial defense capacities. And it is also true for the US." The money to acquire arms for Ukraine will come from frozen Russian assets (quotations source: Reuters)

Mar 17 The three days of voting over, it comes as no surprise that Vladimir Putin won the Russian presidential election. Final counts show Putin having won over 87% of the 77 million votes cast.  He had three rivals in the election: Nikolai Kharitonov (Communist Party), Vladislav Davankov (New People Party), and Leonid Slutsky (Liberal Democratic Party). (author's comment: despite its name, the Liberal Democratic Party is ultranationalist and populist in its ideology. It's about as far right on the political spectrum that a political party can get.)  A fifth candidate, and genuine threat to Putin, Boris Nadezhdin of the Civic Initiative Party had great popular following but was disqualified by the Central Election Commission in February.  (See Jan. 26 above.)  Putin's election moves him on to another six-year term that will begin on May 7.  If he serves the entire six years, Putin will become the longest serving Russian leader in some 200 years. Putin would have 31 years by 2030, beating Stalin by four years.

In his victory speech, Putin announced that he would make Russia's "Special Military Operation" (war in Ukraine) a priority. "We have many tasks ahead. But when we are consolidated - no matter who wants to intimidate us, suppress us - nobody has ever succeeded in history, they have not succeeded now, and they will not succeed ever in the future."  

Commenting later on a noon rally held by supporters of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, Putin told reporters that Navalny's death had been a "sad event" but it had no effect on the outcome of the election.  After all, he said, he had tried to arrange a prisoner exchange for the release of Navalny before Navalny's death. 

When asked by an NBC reporter if his election was democratic, Putin responded by attacking the US. "The whole world is laughing at what is happening (in the United States) ....This is just a disaster, not a democracy"  In a veiled reference to the four criminal cases against Donald Trump, he asked, "Is it democratic to use administrative resources to attack one of the candidates for the presidency of the United States, using the judiciary among other things?" (quotations source: Reuters)

Mar 21 The leaders of the European Union met in Brussels to consider the European Commission's proposal that the EU confiscate income from frozen Russian assets to fund military assistance to Ukraine.  While the proposal may appeal to most EU members, it is evident that Hungary opposes it. The summit is also considering enabling Ukraine and Moldova to begin the process for acquiring EU membership.  Candidate states for EU membership must have the unanimous approval of all 27 EU members even to begin the application process.  Hungary is certain to oppose their membership. 

Meanwhile in the United States, Congress shows itself in no hurry to approve the $95.34 billion aid bill still stalled in the House of Representatives. ($60.6 billion of that bill is designated for Ukraine.)  Speaker of the House Mike Johnson promised "quick action" once Congress approved a bill for renewed funding of the federal government.  However, Congress will take a two-week Easter recess (Mar 25 - Apr 8).  Referring to the stalemate, Senator Chuck Schumer (Dem, NY) commented, "The longer that the national security supplemental sits on Speaker Johnson's desk, the more desperate the situation in Ukraine becomes .... Russia is now making three times -- three times -- as much artillery and munitions as the US and Europe, and Ukrainian forces are suffering the consequences on the ground." (quotation source: Agence France-Presse)

Mar 21  (author's comment:  As it did for me, it may come as a surprise to readers to learn that since the war began in 2022, Ukraine has continued to allow the pipeline flow of Russian natural gas across its territory to markets beyond Ukraine's borders. That will now be ending.)  The British news agency Reuters reported that Ukraine will not renew its current five-year agreement allowing the Russian state-owned Gazprom energy company to use Ukrainian pipelines nor will it renew it when it expires at the end of 2024.  We have seen that the EU has encouraged its member states to reduce or end their purchase of Russian gas, but Europe's need for heating fuels has enabled Russian export to continue. Ukrainian energy authorities have assured the country that its own gas storage and distribution systems are sufficient to meet the needs of the country. 

Mar 21 Gas flow or not, the realities of the war continue. Ukraine's air defenses successfully intercepted and destroyed all 31Russian aircraft (drones and cruise missiles) targeting Kyiv. No one was killed, but 13 were reported injured by falling debris.  An attack on March 20 killed five and injured nine in Kharkiv. In a radio address President Zelenskyy repeated his call for more weapons from Ukraine's Western allies and, in a post on X, urged them to "demonstrate sufficient political will" as "Such terror continues every day and night. It is possible to put an end to it through global unity. When it helps us with air defense systems. Russian terrorists do not have missiles capable of bypassing Patriot and other leading world systems.” (quotation source: Bloomberg)

Mar 22  Russia launched a massive Shahed drone and missile attack against numerous targets across Ukraine.  Ukrainian air defenses reported that of the 88 missiles, 37 were shot down and 55 of the 63 drones were likewise destroyed.  There was no report of deaths or injuries. The targets appeared to be Ukraine's energy infrastructure.   Among them was Ukraine's largest hydroelectric plant, the Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Station dam in Zaporizhzhia. While the dam itself was hit, the damage did not cause a breach.  The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), occupied by Russian troops since March 2022 and at constant risk of disaster since, was also impacted. The Ukrainian state-owned nuclear power corporation Energoatom reported that a power line connecting the plant to the national grid was severed in the Thursday-night bombardment.  Energoatom head Petro Kotin said: "This situation is extremely dangerous and may result in an emergency. If the last line of communication with the national power grid is disconnected, ZNPP will be in another blackout, which is a serious violation of the conditions for safe operation of the plant." (quotation source: Newsweek)

Mar 22 A terrorist attack at a Moscow concert venue killed 140 and injured over 130 others.   The attack took place at the "Crocus City Hall", a massive entertainment complex that opened in 2009.  During the performance, a group of masked and camouflaged attackers suddenly entered the auditorium, spraying gunfire and throwing incendiary grenades, causing chaos among the several thousand panicked concert-goers.  An Islamic extremist group calling itself ISIS-K proclaimed responsibility for the attack.  ISIS-K is part of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), a Sunni Muslim jihadist group that calls itself a caliphate and claims religious authority over all Muslims.  Russia's Federal Security Service, the FSB, said it arrested 11 people, including four suspected gunmen identified as Tajik nationals.  Over the following days, Putin accused the attackers as having ties with Ukraine and that those who had been arrested were attempting to flee to Ukraine.  He also accused the US, France, and Italy as somehow having a connection to ISIS.  There was no basis for Putin's allegations, and on March 26, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko publicly said the terrorists were heading to Belarus when arrested.  Earlier on March 7 the US Embassy in Moscow issued a security alert based on intelligence that  “extremists” were planning a future attack in Moscow and advised avoiding large gatherings. Putin dismissed the warning as "provocative" and "outright blackmail. "  (quotation source: The Hill)

That the attackers were identified as Tajiks, reflects another Putin concern: that of the increasing numbers of foreign migrants. It’s not clear how many migrant workers are in Russia. The numbers range from estimates of four million to as much as 10.5 million. The numbers are not constant as people come and go in response to fluctuating demand for labor. The migrants are mostly from the Central Asian countries Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. These states were formerly part of the Russian Empire and Soviet Union, and their economies depend heavily on funds sent home by the migrants. 

Russian attitudes towards the migrants are highly xenophobic. They are seen as foreigners with a different religion (Islam), languages, and customs. They tend to live in their own communities, intermixing with the general Russian population only through their occupations.  “Because I am not Russian, hatred was directed at me even before the Crocus City Hall (attack), but now, they especially hate the migrants,” said a taxi driver who came to Moscow from his native Osh, Kyrgyzstan’s second-largest city, some four years ago in search of stable work.  The attackers “happened to be Tajiks, and Russians cannot differentiate between Tajiks and Kyrgyz. We all have the same face to them,” he added, requesting anonymity due to safety concerns. “I’m scared...I don’t work at night anymore.” (quotations source: The Moscow Times, an independent on-line newspaper, now published in Amsterdam.)  Children of migrants are reported to be afraid of going to school.  On March 27 Russian police and National Guard raided a warehouse belonging to the online retail giant Wildberries, checking the documents of some 5000 male migrant employees. Those lacking the proper papers were taken to military enlistment centers.  Wildberries is the Russian equivalent of Amazon.    

Mar 22 -23  The US Congress finally addressed the pressing issue of renewing the budget that funds the operation of much the US Federal Government.  Reflecting surprising bipartisan support, the House of Representatives passed the $1.2 trillion funding bill by 286 to 134 votes.  In a vote of 74-24 the Senate approved the bill in the early hours of March 23rd.  The act will continue to fund the departments of State, Defense, Homeland Security, Health and Human Services, and Labor. Commenting before the vote, House Speaker Mike Johnson said, "This FY24 (Fiscal Year 2024) appropriations legislation is a serious commitment to strengthening our national defense by moving the Pentagon toward a focus on its core mission while expanding support for our brave men and women who serve in uniform." (quotation source: UPI)   A budget bill approved by Congress in early March funds the departments of Veterans Affairs, Agriculture, and Interior. That law was also approved with only hours to spare before the expiration deadline. The two laws raise the overall federal budget package to $1.66 trillion.  President Biden signed the Act into law.

(Author's comment: The US government, having survived the divisiveness of congressional partisanship, will be funded through the end of the fiscal year on September 30. The congressional approval of the budget in no way reflects a mellowing of that partisanship. In protest of some of her Republican colleagues voting in favor of the budget bill, outspoken Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene (Rep. Georgia) filed a motion to vacate House Speaker Mike Johnson. This same technique was used to remove Speaker Kevin McCarthy in October 2023. With the House being in recess for two weeks, no immediate action will be taken on her motion, but she wanted Johnson to see it as a clear warning that his credibility as Speaker is in question. Greene is in no way alone among her party colleagues in seeing Johnson as having betrayed Republican Party "values". Why does this matter in the context of the renewed Cold War?  Back in the 1830s Metternich allegedly once observed, "When France sneezes, all of Europe catches a cold." So it is that the partisan machinations of the US Congress have impact on the war in Ukraine, thus affecting all of Europe.)

Mar 24 Russian authorities in the Crimean port city of Sevastopol reported Ukraine launched "a massive overnight missile attack" on the naval base and other facilities.  Ukraine claimed the attack damaged a communications center and two warships, the Yamal and Azov.  Both vessels were landing ships. Russian air defense reported that ten of the incoming missiles were intercepted and destroyed, but falling debris killed a civilian on the ground. Also damaged was the Konstantin Olshansky. The Olshansky had once been part of the Ukrainian navy but was seized by Russia in the 2014 invasion of Crimea. While Ukraine did not reveal the type of missiles used in the attack, it's assumed they were British-made Storm Shadows and French SCALPs, both types having been used in earlier port attacks.  

Mar 26 Poland reported that on March 24 a Russian missile violated Polish air space and demanded an explanation from Moscow. The missile was tracked traveling at a speed of 500 mph at an altitude of 1200 feet and crossing over Polish territory for 39 seconds near the village of Oserdow. Oserdow is on the border with Ukraine.  Polish Armed Forces Operational Command activated its air defenses. Had there been any sign the missile was heading toward a target in Poland, it would have been shot down. In a radio address, Polish Deputy Foreign Minister, Andrzej Szejna, said the incident was a Russian test of Polish defenses.  He also said that "NATO is analyzing different concepts, including that such missiles should be shot down when they are very close to the NATO border," he said, "but this should happen with the consent of the Ukrainian side and taking into account international consequences ....  In this case, NATO missiles would hit Russian missiles outside the territory of the Alliance Treaty .... We take Putin's threats very seriously." (quotations source: Newsweek)

Mar 29  Russia launched some 99 missiles and drones in strikes on fuel and energy infrastructure across Ukraine.  Ukrainian air defense reported having intercepted and destroyed 84 of the weapons.  There was no report of on-ground casualties.  A nervous Poland ordered units of its air force into the skies to intercept any Russian weapons that might cross into Polish air space.   (See March 26 above.)  

Mar 29 In remarks to several European news publications, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that a wider "war is no longer a concept of the past" and that Europe is now in "the prewar era." Describing the present as "the most critical moment since the end of the Second World War," Tusk warned that the next two years would be crucial to Europe's future."  (quotations source: BBC via Newsweek) 

April 2  NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg proposed that the alliance consider a $107 billion five-year military aid package for Ukraine.  If approved, it would be the first time the entire bloc would provide weapons and other military equipment to Ukraine.  It has been providing non-lethal assistance, but NATO members have been independently providing military aid through bi-lateral agreements with Ukraine since the war began in 2022.  It is speculated that Stoltenberg's proposal is intended to guard against any future cuts in US assistance should Donald Trump become President in 2025. Under the plan NATO would take over some coordination work currently being done by the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) .  (The UDCG? See April 26, 2022 above.)  Stoltenberg's proposal will be discussed at the NATO foreign ministers meeting, April 3 - 4.  Any decisions by the foreign ministers will be on the agenda of the NATO summit meeting in July. 

April 3 Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed into law an act lowering the minimum age for military conscription from 27 to 25 years. The law had been passed by the parliament in 2022.  He did not say why he had not approved the law in 2022, but any military draft, especially one that lowers the age would be highly unpopular.  "Zelensky also signed two other laws pertaining to mobilization, including one that creates an online registry for recruits.  'These laws introduce changes only to some aspects of the mobilization process. But still there are many other issues that have to be resolved,' said Oksana Zabolotna, an analyst with the Center for United Actions, a government watchdog in Kyiv.  Lowering the conscription age likely will not meet the military’s goal of 500,000 new recruits, she said. 'There are about half a million men aged 25-27. Some of them are unfit for service, some have left, some are (in the) reserve or have the right to deferment.' She estimated the new law may achieve about 10% of the goal.                                                       That is still a step forward. The average age of Ukrainian soldiers, like those on the Russian side, is around 40, military analysts say. Some Ukrainians worry that taking young adults out of the workforce will backfire by further harming the war-ravaged economy, but the problem reportedly has become acute as Kyiv girds for an expected summer offensive by the Kremlin’s forces." (quotations source: Time Magazine) 

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Apr 3  BBC News reported on the status of Ukrainian grain exports. Readers will recall that Russia ended the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) in July 2023, making Ukraine’s direct sea lanes vulnerable to attack. The strategy, of course, was to weaken Ukraine’s economy and will to resist. In the immediate months following, Ukrainian grain exports fell from pre-war levels of 6.5 million tons a month to just over two million tons. However, Ukraine would establish new export routes, one being that grain ships shadow the coasts within the territorial waters of Romania and Bulgaria (both NATO members). The other was moving shipments up the Danube to the Romanian port at Constanta. There the grain could be transferred to ships flagged to other countries for crossing the Black Sea or move by barge to markets up the Danube.  Russian submarines would be unable to attack shipping in the shallow coastal waters, and Russia dare not attack the ships of other, especially NATO, countries on the open sea. As a result, Ukraine exported 16.3 million tons of grain in the first three months of 2024 and a total of 20 million tons to 42 countries since the BSGI ended.  All this being done despite 30 Russian drone and missile attacks against Ukrainian grain ports and storage facilities during that same period. 

When the war began in 2022 the European Union ended tariffs on goods imported from Ukraine. This was intended to help Ukraine by making Ukrainian exports less expensive and therefore encourage demand. However, this meant that prices on grain products imported from Ukraine would be less expensive for consumers than the domestically produced goods. Very simply, wheat bought from Ukraine in Poland was cheaper than wheat produced by Polish farmers. The same was true for consumers and producers in Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria. This caused great dissatisfaction among farming populations in those countries, leading to protests and boycotts and making Ukrainian food imports a political issue. The EU amended its position by banning domestic purchase of Ukrainian grain in those five countries, allowing only grain meant for transit to markets in other countries.  Still, however, the imports continue to reach the domestic market.

On March 6, several thousand Polish farmers staged a raucous demonstration in Warsaw, protesting EU policies relating to food imports from Ukraine and other restrictions.  Blocking some streets with their tractors, the crowd assembled at the Prime Minister’s offices and marched to the Parliament building.  Some protestors threw stones at police and attempted to breach barriers at the Parliament. Several police officers were injured. In addition to Ukrainian imports they were protesting the EU’s Green Deal, a policy requiring farmers to reduce the use of chemical fertilizers.  The demonstrators also included miners, foresters, and hunters. They trampled an EU flag, burned a mock coffin labeled “farmer,” and set off firecrackers and smoke bombs despite police warnings.  The Polish government attributed the violence to hooligans and provocateurs and vowed to prosecute arrested offenders. 

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April 3  Meeting for two days at NATO headquarters in Brussels, the foreign ministers of all 32 alliance members discussed the war in Ukraine. Following the meeting, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg commented, “The Ukrainians are not running out of courage, they are running out of ammunition,” .... “in our meeting today, we discussed how to put our support on a firmer and more enduring basis for the future. All Allies agree on the need to support Ukraine in this critical moment. There is a unity of purpose. Today, Allies have agreed to move forward with planning for a greater NATO role in coordinating security assistance and training. The details will take shape in the weeks to come, but make no mistake: Ukraine can rely on NATO support now, and for a long haul." (quotation source: NATO Website) 

(author's comment:  The "details" will be difficult to negotiate as "unity of purpose" will have a different meaning for each member state. As all are democracies, they are subject to the interests of political parties and public opinion. What we've seen in the political paralysis of the US Congress regarding assistance for Ukraine is a case in point. Each NATO member will bring to the table its own agenda in working out the details.) 

April 4 marked the 75th anniversary of the alliance's founding.  Speaking to the assembly, Stoltenberg remarked, “NATO is bigger, stronger, and more united than ever”. Referring to the 1949 founding treaty, he added "never has a single document with so few words meant so much to so many people. So much security, so much prosperity, and so much peace. All because of its solemn promise: that we stand together, and protect one another, as we have for 75 years." (quotation source: NATO Website)   Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kubela was present at the April 4 session and spoke with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, urging "our American partners to find ways to provide additional Patriot air defense systems as soon as possible." (quotation source: The Guardian)   British Foreign Minister David Cameron, making reference to the 1938 appeasement of Hitler, stated  “What we face today is as simple as then. We have a tyrant in Europe who is trying to redraw borders by force, and there are two choices. You can appease that approach or you can confront that approach.” (quotation source: The Independent)

April 7 Both Russia and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that a Ukrainian drone struck the dome of one the six reactors at the  Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. There was no damage to the reactor.  IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi warned Ukraine and Russia to avoid attacks that “jeopardize nuclear safety” at the massive power plant. Ukraine neither confirmed nor denied the attack.  The plant, under Russian control since 2022, lies in a region that has long been contested by Russian and Ukrainian forces, and there is always the possibility that an attack might cause a catastrophic nuclear melt-down. (quotation source: Associated Press) 

April 7  As the US Congress ends its spring recess, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, gave it a somber reminder.  "It is necessary to specifically tell Congress that if Congress does not help Ukraine, Ukraine will lose the war. If  Ukraine loses the war, other states will be attacked." (quotation source: Agence France-Presse)  Readers are reminded that a $60 billion aid bill approved by the Senate remains stalled in the House of Representatives. 

April 8  A combined Russian missile and drone strike hit targets in Ukraine's second largest city Kharkiv. The attack, killing at least eight and injuring 13 others, seemed aimed at residential areas of the city. Ukrainian air defense claimed to have destroyed three of the six missiles and 28 of the 32 drones. An earlier drone strike on April 3 killed four civilians. 

April 8  As part of a visit with US leadership, British Foreign Minister David Lord Cameron made a trip to Mar-a-Lago, Donald Trump's Florida resort , to confer with the former President. The purpose of the meeting was Cameron's intent to impress upon Trump the strategic necessity of providing military assistance to Ukraine.  A bill to provide some $60 billion in aid for Ukraine remains stalled in the House of Representatives because of the resistance of Trump-leaning Republican members.  In the past Cameron has referred to Trump as “protectionist, xenophobic, [and] misogynistic” and denouncing one of his policies as “divisive, stupid and wrong”.  On April 4 in an address to NATO, Cameron urged the US Congress not to show “the weakness displayed against Hitler” in the 1930s.  That comment drew the ire of right-wing congresswoman and staunch Trump ally Marjorie Taylor Greene (Rep- GA), who said Cameron could “kiss my ass” and should “worry about his own country”. (quotations source: The Independent)

April 11  In response to a report in The Washington Post that former President Donald Trump is working on a plan to end the war, Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov told Newsweek,  "We have seen reports on this, but so far, no initiatives have been announced by Donald Trump .... Therefore, it is impossible to make estimates."  Responding to Trump's repeated suggestions that Ukraine should cede territory in pursuit of peace, Ukrainian president Zelenskyy said he had invited Trump to come to Ukraine  "to see everything with his own eyes and draw his own conclusions." Zelenskyy added that he had heard nothing from Trump, but if Trump did have suggestions for peace, he could come to Ukraine where Zelenskyy "will with pleasure listen to them and then we can discuss the topic."  (quotation source: Newsweek)

April 10 -11  Overnight, Russia launched 82 missiles and drones targeting energy infrastructure across Ukraine. Despite air defenses having shot down 76 of the incoming aircraft, the Trypilska Thermal Power Plant near Kyiv was completely destroyed.  Trypilska was one of three thermal power plants operated by the  Centrenergo energy company.  Another near Kharkiv was destroyed in March.  The third, in Donetsk, was captured in 2022.  The loss of the Trypilska plant puts a severe strain on energy distribution in much of the Kyiv region.  As the barrage of missiles approached targets in western Ukraine, Polish air forces went on alert. (Poland, remember, remains wary of Russian missiles, especially as one crossed Polish air space on March 26.)  President Zelenskyy later stated that Trypilska was attacked by 11 missiles and Ukrainian forces intercepted and destroyed seven, but four got through to destroy the plant.  "Why? Because we had zero missiles. We ran out of all missiles." (quotation source: CNBC)  

April 12  Vladimir Yermakov, head of the Russian Foreign Ministry's Department of Nonproliferation and Arms Control,  said that Moscow has not received any "fundamentally new ideas" from the United States in terms of strategic stability and arms control. Readers are reminded that in February 2023 Putin "suspended" future Russian participation in negotiations towards a New START agreement. In a statement to the Russian news agency TASS, Yermakov said the US must first end its "policy to undermine Russia's security" and show  "genuine desire for comprehensive efforts focused on eliminating the root causes of the fundamental disagreements created by the Americans, which threaten a direct military clash between our countries." (quotation source: Newsweek)  (START is the STrategic Arms Reduction Treaty. See Nov 11 and 28, 2022 above. New START refers to negotiations to renew the treaty.) 

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  April 15  author's comment: Our account of the war and its international impact is now further compounded by the continuing crisis in the Middle East. On night of August 13-14 Iran launched a massive missile and drone attack on targets in Israel.  The launch points were in Iran, Iraq, Yemen, and the Hezbollah-controlled region in Lebanon.  In all of these regions Houthi and other Islamic extremist groups are supported by Iran.   The assault was in retaliation for Israel's having launched a missile strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria earlier in April.  (It had been determined that sporadic rocket attacks on Israeli assets had been controlled from that consulate.)  Israeli air defenses intercepted and destroyed almost all of the some 300 weapons before they reached Israeli airspace.  Several of the attacking missiles were destroyed by rockets fired from US warships in the Mediterranean and from British aircraft based on Cyprus.  

How does this new wrinkle affect the war in Ukraine?  In the US President Biden assured Israel of American support but cautioned Israel to show restraint in any retaliation against Iran.  In Congress there were calls for American action to provide immediate aid and assistance in support of Israel. This, of course, would mean greater spending.  There already exists a bill - the same one that provides aid for Ukraine, that provides aid for Israel. Because of partisan resistance to support for Ukraine, that bill has been stalled in the House of Representatives since February. 

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April 16  The ground war continues along the Donetsk battlefront with Ukrainian forces defending the town Chasiv Yar against an intensifying Russian assault. Chasiv Yar is just west of Bakhmut, captured by the Russian in May, 2023.  Russia is seen to have the advantage in this battle as the Ukrainians need to conserve supplies of vital ammunition and weapons.  Ukrainian forces in the Lyman and Avdiivka areas reported multiple air and missile strikes along their lines of defense.  In Washington, DC,  the Institute for the Study of War (ISR) issued a statement saying that Ukraine's ability to resist the Russian assault has "degraded due to materiel shortages and will likely continue to degrade in the near future should delays in U.S. security assistance continue." (quotation source: CNBC) The ISR is an independent think tank, "focusing on military operations, enemy threats, and political trends in diverse conflict zones"  (quotation source: Institute for the Study of War) 

April 17  Will Ukraine get that "security assistance"?  The future of US aid to Ukraine is again being debated in the US House of Representatives.  A bit of review: In February the House took up consideration of a Senate-passed bill providing $95.34 billion in aid for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and humanitarian aid in Gaza.  Of that $60.6 billion was designated for Ukraine.  While the bill had the approval of most House Democrats, the Republicans are the majority party, and they are divided on the issue. A highly partisan faction is totally opposed to Ukraine aid without first getting a guarantee of legislative action for stricter controls on the US border with Mexico. The most vocal of those in opposition is Georgia Representative Marjory Taylor Greene, whose uncompromising position is compatible with that of former President Donald Trump. Greene and her allies in the House have threatened to remove House Speaker Mike Johnson, if the Speaker attempts to force a vote on the bill. Seeking some sort of resolution, Johnson on April 16 stated that he would break the bill into four bills designated for Ukraine ($60.6 billion), Israel $26 billion), the Indo-Pacific ($8 billion), and for the US seizing of Russian assets.  Johnson indicated that votes on the bills will be on Saturday, April 20. If the House passes the bills, they will be combined in one package to be sent to The Senate.  The House calendar has it recessing on Friday, April 19.  The bills all passed!  See Sept. 20 below. 

The Ukraine piece of the bill will be a loan, but it comes with the provision that after six months the President can cancel half of the debt and the whole debt after Jan. 1, 2026.  The bill also calls for the provision of ATACMS ballistic missiles and requires the State and Defense Departments to present a strategy for supporting Ukraine within 45 days. ATACMS - Army TACtical Missile Systems - are 190-mile range weapons that are easily moved from place to place for launching. 

April 18  The foreign ministers of the Group of Seven (G 7) began a three-day meeting on the Italian island of Capri. (The G 7? See June 27, 2022 above.) The security of and assistance to Ukraine remains a primary topic of discussion, but the Israeli-Hamas war in Gaza and now the Israeli-Iranian hostility demand serious attention. 

April 18  Poland released news that it had thwarted a Russian plot to assassinate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Police arrested a man identified only as Pawel K on the charge of unlawful surveillance at the Rzeszow-Jasionka airport in southeastern Poland. Under US military control, the airport is used by Zelenskyy for international travel. It is also the center to which military and humanitarian is flown before being shipped by railroad and truck into Ukraine. 

April 19  An overnight Russian aerial attack killed eight and injured at least 28 others in the Dnipro and across Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk region. Ukrainian air defenses claimed to have destroyed 15 missiles and 14 drones.  In addition, Ukraine claimed to have shot down a Russian Tu22M3 strategic bomber from which some of the missiles had been fired.  Russia acknowledged that such a bomber crashed in the southern Stavropol region well inside Russian airspace, but it was due to a "technical malfunction" on returning from a combat mission. One of the plane's four-man flight crew was killed in the crash. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy again called for urgent supplies of air defenses from Ukraine's allies. "Russia must be held accountable for its terror, and every missile, every Shahed must be shot down," he said. "The world can guarantee this, and our partners have the necessary capabilities." (quotations source: Reuters)

April 20  Months of legislative gridlock ended with the US House of Representatives approving four bills, one of which provides $61 billion for much needed assistance for Ukraine.  The vote count showed the Ukraine aid bill passing with a 311- 112 majority. With one Democratic congressman abstaining, all Democratic representatives voted for the bill as did 101 Republicans.  Those Republicans opposing the bill are among the hard-liners who have sought to remove Congressman Mike Johnson from the Speakership. 

The other three bills were as follows. The $14 billion Indo-Pacific Security Supplemental bill was approved with a bipartisan vote 385-34 and one abstention. This bill provides funding primarily for the defense of Taiwan.  The $26 billion Israel Security Supplemental  (366-58) provides funding for weapons and defense systems (such as the Iron Dome anti-missile shield) and includes $9 billion for humanitarian assistance in Gaza and elsewhere. And the 21st Century Peace through Strength Act (360-58) which provides for a variety of circumstances. These include sanctions on Iran's oil industry and transport, seizure and transfer to Ukraine of frozen Russian assets held in the US, and a ban on TikTok, if the social media's Chinese parent company ByteDance does not sell it to a US buyer within nine months.  TikTok's Chinese ownership has raised congressional suspicions that the social media company is gathering information on its users. 

Commenting on X Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he was grateful “for the decision that keeps history on the right track.” The House's action “will keep the war from expanding, save thousands and thousands of lives, and help both of our nations to become stronger.” “Democracy and freedom will always have global significance and will never fail as long as America helps to protect it,” .... “Just peace and security can only be attained through strength.”  

Welcoming the news, President Biden said: “Today, members of both parties in the House voted to advance our national security interests and send a clear message about the power of American leadership on the world stage.  At this critical inflection point, they came together to answer history’s call, passing urgently needed national security legislation that I have fought for months to secure.”  The package “comes at a moment of grave urgency, with Israel facing unprecedented attacks from Iran, and Ukraine under continued bombardment from Russia”.

British Foreign Secretary David Lord Cameron said the bill was a “vital step forward .... If Putin ever doubted the West’s resolve to back Ukraine, this shows our collective will is undimmed .... With support, Ukraine can and will win.” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg commented that the package would “make us all safer." (quotations source: The Telegraph) 

The Russian response was predictable. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was quoted by TASS saying, “It will further enrich the United States of America and ruin Ukraine even more, by killing even more Ukrainians." (Peskov quotation source: The Telegraph)  Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that it was clear that the United States wanted Ukraine "to fight to the last Ukrainian" including with attacks on Russian sovereign territory and civilians. "Washington's deeper and deeper immersion in the hybrid war against Russia will turn into such a loud and humiliating fiasco for United States as Vietnam and Afghanistan."  (Zakharova quotation source: Reuters)

 April 22  Ukraine announced that in a missile strike on Russia's naval base in Sevastopol its forces had attacked and damaged the oldest ship in the Russian navy.  The vessel is the Kommuna, a twin-hulled (catamaran) salvage/rescue ship that was launched in 1913.  The Kommuna saw active duty in both World Wars and was instrumental in salvaging parts of the Moskva, the Russian guided missile cruiser sunk by Ukraine in April 2022. Ukraine did not reveal what type of weapon struck the Kommuna, but it's speculated that it was a Neptune anti-ship missile.  Neptunes were used to sink the Moskva. Noted author and naval expert H. I. Sutton commented that the Kommuna "gets a degree of sympathy because she is an ancient and beautiful ship .... But objectively she is a legitimate target and provides Russian navy with valuable capabilities .... She often participates in submarine trials and can conduct seabed warfare." (quotation source: Business Insider)

April 23 In a surprising move, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu ordered the arrest of Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov, accusing Ivanov of accepting bribes in the administration of military construction projects. Corruption has been rife in Russian administration at all levels for decades as both officials and contractors seek to profit personally from business agreements. It was speculated that Shoigu's arrest of Ivanov was to deflect attention away from his own corruption at higher levels of government.  (See May 12 below.)

April 23  In an 80 to 19 procedural vote the US Senate approved advancing the $95.34 billion package of the four bills passed by the House on April 20. In what debate there was, Alabama Republican Senator Tommy Tuberville vehemently denounced the bill in a speech lasting almost ten minutes. In it he described Ukraine as a "black hole with no accountability" while accusing House Republican leaders of having "sold out Americans" by allowing a vote on the bill in the first place. "The war in Ukraine is a stalemate. It has been for a while, "he said. "We should be working with Ukraine and Russia to negotiate an end to this madness."  When the final vote was taken, Tuberville was among the three senators who did not cast votes.  The final vote was 79 -18 with 48 Democrats and 31 Republicans voting in favor and 15 Republicans, two Democrats, and one Independent (Bernie Sanders, VT) in opposition. Commenting on the vote, President Biden said, "[A] bipartisan majority in the Senate joined the House to answer history's call at this critical inflection point .... Congress has passed my legislation to strengthen our national security and send a message to the world about the power of American leadership: we stand resolutely for democracy and freedom, and against tyranny and oppression"  (quotation sources: Business Insider and NBC News) 

April 24 President Joseph Biden signed the Congressional four-bills-in-one legislative package into Law. Biden said it was a “good day for America, a good day for Ukraine and a good day for world peace.” The aid package is “going to make America safer. It’s going to make the world safer. And it continues America’s leadership in the world .... It was a difficult path,” Biden said. “It should have been easier. It should have gotten there sooner. But in the end, we did what America always does: We rose to the moment, came together. We got it done.”  (quotation source: CNN News)

April 24  During a visit to Poland, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced a new military aid package for Ukraine. The package adds $620 million to the $3.1 billion previously allocated for 2024. (author's note: I am using US dollar equivalents to British pounds.)  Much of the  funding will be used to manufacture drones in the UK, but the package also provides for 400 vehicles, 1600 missiles, four million rounds of ammunition, and 60 boats. "Defending Ukraine against Russia's brutal ambitions is vital for our security and for all of Europe," Sunak said.  "If Putin is allowed to succeed in this war of aggression, he will not stop at the Polish border....Ukraine’s armed forces continue to fight bravely, but they need our support — and they need it now ....[This] package will help ensure Ukraine has what they need to take the fight to Russia .... The United Kingdom will always play its part at the forefront of European security, defending our national interest and standing by our NATO allies." (quotation source: The Guardian)

April 24 In a Newsweek interview Anatoly Antonov, the Russian Ambassador to the US, issued a disturbing warning in response to Biden's signing the Ukraine aid bill into law.  "America has chosen the path of war and agonizing delays of the inevitable collapse of the Zelenskyy regime .... With their decision, local politicians are actually deciding the fate of an entire country, which is being used as a 'battering ram' against Russia .... Thus, the United States is performing a balancing act above burning ground. With bravado of a duelist, it fatally balances on the brink of a direct clash between nuclear powers .... But it can no longer stay on the thin, worn out 'tightrope' of the world order. The US is ready to rush headlong into the abyss, dragging others with it .... having "launched an all-out hybrid war against us ...." (The Biden administration is) .... "encouraging attacks on Russian territory, including strategic deterrent facilities .... The compiled 'explosive mixture' of legislative acts points to a hostile radicalization of the consciousness of local elites and takes a particular toll on the prospects for a hypothetical revival of the Russia-U.S. relations in the future," Antonov said. "What can be seen is a bipartisan consensus of people who failed to destroy the Russian state in the 1990s." 

On the economic front, the new U.S. legislation would also pave the way for the transfer of billions of dollars' worth of frozen Russian assets toward a special fund for supporting Ukraine.  Antonov saw this, too, as a part of the "same weapon" against Moscow, "albeit a financial one." "Russophobes are trying to cover up robbery with pseudo-legal arguments," Antonov said. "At the same time, they are not at all embarrassed by their actions, while trampling on the very sacred principles of the inviolability of property that America so boasts of. The international financial system will inevitably break down."

Referring to the  START and New START agreements, Antonov continued, "For many years, a strategic security safety net existed between our countries that saved Russia-US ties and ensured global stability .... Nowadays Washington has completely torn it apart .... America is increasingly driving itself into zugzwang ...." (a zugzwang is a chess reference in which one player is put at a disadvantage due to an obligation to make a move.)  "Any measure taken against Russia is a powerful argument, proving the infeasibility of a world subject to unipolar dictate by one country," Antonov said. "Military supplies from the United States and its allies (in Ukraine) have been burned, are being burned and will be burned by the Russian Armed Forces." And though the U.S. has only doubled down on its commitment to supporting Ukraine indefinitely, he said Russia too has rallied around its leadership, which shows no sign of backing down from the conflict. "The Russian people are completely united around President Vladimir Putin, our Army and Navy. Russian citizens understand that our cause is just .... All goals and objectives of the Special Military Operation will be achieved." (quotations source: Newsweek)

April 24  Meanwhile at the United Nations ... Russia vetoed a Security Council resolution forbidding the placing nuclear weapons in space. The resolution, sponsored by the US and Japan, was approved by 13 of the 15 Council members. China abstained and Russia vetoed.  (The UN Charter gives permanent Security Council membership to the US, Russia, China, Britain, and France, each having veto power.) On Feb. 20, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin had stated, “Our position is clear ... We have always been categorically against and are now against the deployment of nuclear weapons in space.”  (quotation source: New York Times)  US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield challenged Russian ambassador Vasily Nebenzya "Today's veto begs the question: Why? Why if you are following the rules would you not support a resolution that reaffirms them? What could you possibly be hiding? .... It's baffling and it's a shame." Nebenzya responded, "We want a ban on the placement of weapons of any kind in outer space, not just (weapons of mass destruction). But you don't want that ... Let me ask you that very same question: Why?" (quotation source: US News and World Report)  Space has long played an essential role in conflict. Communications and GPS satellites provide for the operation of missiles and drones.  Were an orbiting nuclear weapon to be detonated, the result would be the disruption of those systems. Imagine how that would impact the war in Ukraine. 

April 26  In a Pentagon press conference, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin Pentagon said the US would "move immediately" to rush Patriot air defense missiles to Ukraine. (Patriot missiles? See Dec. 14, 2022 above.) “Understand what’s at stake for Ukraine, for Europe, and for the United States,” he said. “If Putin prevails in Ukraine, Europe would face a security threat it hasn’t seen in a lifetime. Russia will not stop in Ukraine .... It’s going to take some time to get it (the Patriots) in there and distribute. The Ukrainians were able to hold; with this capability, they can do a lot better.” (quotation source: The Independent)

April 27 Australian defense minister Richard Marles met with Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal in Lviv to announce a $100 million military aid package. The package would include short-range air defense missiles and drones.  Since 2022 Australia had already provided Ukraine with over $800 billion worth of military assistance. 

April 28  The war, of course, continues. An overnight Russian missile attack struck energy targets across Ukraine with strikes in the Lviv, Kharkiv, and the central Dnipropetrovsk region.  Power and water supply systems were disrupted in some areas. In Kharkiv a hospital was hit, but only one injury was reported.  Ukrainian air defense claimed to have intercepted and destroyed 21 of the 34 incoming missiles. Ukraine responded with drone strikes against the Ilsky and Slavyansk oil refineries and the Kushchyovskaya military air base in Russia's Krasnodar region.  

April 28 The New York Times reported that the costs of the war with Ukraine are beginning to strain Russian revenue sources. Russia is allocating one third of its annual budget for FY (Fiscal Year) 2024 to defense spending. Another one third comes from oil and gas sales and exports. Russians pay a 13% income tax. (In the US taxation is based on a gradual scale, the average being 15 - 20%.) In March Putin announced that he plans to introduce a new progressive tax scale that will increase taxes on corporations and the wealthy but reduce those  on lower income earners, a sop to those most dissatisfied with the war.  Compared with FY 2021, the year before the war began, Russia's defense spending has more than tripled.  

April 29   Ukraine announced that its forces have taken control Nestryha island in the Dnieper River about 12 miles southwest of Kherson.  The island has strategic importance as control of that stretch of the Dnieper enables easier military access to Crimea. (Remember, it has been Ukraine's intent to  liberate Crimea ever since the region was taken by Russia in 2014.)  The control of the river in the Kherson region has been long contested by both sides.

May 7 Ukraine announced the arrest of two high-ranking security officers accused of accepting payments from Russia to kidnap and assassinate President Zelenskyy. Both were charged with treason.  The Ukrainian State Protection Department stated that the suspects were working with the Russian state security service and receiving both money and arms (including drones).   

May 12  In a major leadership shake-up, Russian President Vladimir Putin removed long-time defense minister Sergei Shoigu and replaced him with former economic development minister Andrey Belousov.  Shoigu was then appointed head of the Russian Security Council, a position still with influence but no control over military funding.  The New York Times speculated that with Russian advances on the Kharkiv and Donbass battlefronts, Putin is in a stronger position to address matters of corruption within his government. Belousov has no military experience, but his career shows him to be free of scandal.  

May 14  The shake-up in Russian leadership continued with the arrest of Lt. General Yury Kuznetsov, chief of the Defense Ministry's main personnel directorate.   Kuznetsov was accused of accepting "an exceptionally large bribe" and jailed pending an investigation and trial. The Investigative Committee, Russia's highest investigation authority, alleged Kuznetsov had received the bribe in his previous post as head of the General Staff's military secrets directorate. (quotation source: Associated Press) 

May 15  An assassination attempt on Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico. Shot five times by a single assassin, Fico was gravely wounded.  The shooter, Juraj Cintula, is a 71-year old writer and poet with past ties to pro-Russian movements. Slovakian authorities, however, reported that he was a "lone-wolf" and not affiliated with any group.  Others say Cintula is reflective of partisan polarization arising from Fico's pro-Russian sympathies. He supposedly had been angered when Fico ended Slovakian military assistance to Ukraine in October 2023. Cintula was immediately arrested and charged with attempted murder.  Fico's injuries were not overly serious, and he was released from the hospital on May 30. 

May 16  Russian President Putin traveled to Beijing for two-day conference with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The two vowed to deepen their strategic partnership, and took aim the United States, identifying it as a "destabilizing aggressor." Issuing a lengthy statement the two leaders expressed their views on Taiwan, Ukraine, and the war in Gaza, proclaiming “Russian-Chinese relations stand the test of rapid changes in the world, demonstrating strength and stability, and are experiencing the best period in their history.” (quotation source: CNN)

May 18  Russia's Ministry of Defense reported the destruction of six missiles fired from Ukraine into Russia's Belogrod region. The weapons, Moscow claimed, were French-made Hammer missiles and US-made HARM anti-radar missiles.  Additionally, Russia's foreign ministry announced the thwarting an earlier attack by British-made Storm Shadow and Czech-made Vampire missiles, claiming that Western nations "now authorize their use against Russia" and that they (the West) were "playing with fire."  The US issued a statement calling the allegations "Russian propaganda" adding that the US  "longstanding policy has been clear: we are focused on helping Ukraine defend against assaults it is facing from Russian forces every day, though we do not enable or encourage attacks inside of Russia" .... "Ukraine makes its own decisions about its military operations and how it uses equipment that it manufactures."  

Since the war began in 2022, The US and other Western nations have provided Ukraine with weapons on the understanding that those arms not be used in attacks on targets in Russia.  Experiencing setbacks in resisting the renewed Russian offensive against Kharkiv, Ukraine recently appealed to the US to relax that restriction. Both France and Britain have called upon the US to lift restrictions on weapons use against military targets in Russia and expressed the possibility of their allowing Ukraine to use their weapons without restriction. Italy, however, announced on May 30 that Ukraine must not use any Italian-provided weapons in attacking targets inside Russia.

Ukraine also has need for more effective Western assistance in the training its of its armed forces. (See author's comment below,)

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Author's comment: Ukraine's defense against the Russian invasion and occupation depends greatly upon NATO assistance in the training of Ukrainian armed forces. To date that has meant the sending of Ukrainian troops to those NATO countries providing assistance with armaments. NATO provided weapons, tanks, aircraft, and logistical services (radar defenses, aerial tactics, etc), especially if new, require training. The renewed Russian offense has seriously strained Ukraine's ability to resist and mandates speedy assistance. Sending Ukrainian soldiers and airmen to NATO countries for training is time-consuming and depletes the manpower needed at the battlefronts.  Ukraine has called up 150,000 new recruits and is now asking the US and other NATO countries to deploy trainers to Ukraine.  This raises the question:  If US and NATO military personnel in Ukraine were attacked by Russian forces, would that mean war  with Russia?  The foundation of the alliance is an attack on one is an attack on all. If French or British military trainers in Ukraine are attacked by the Russians, is the US obligated to retaliate? Very simply, yes. Would that mean a wider war? Most likely.  The New York Times on May 17 reported, "The White House has been adamant that it will not put U.S. troops, including trainers, on the ground in Ukraine, a position that an administration official reiterated Thursday. The administration has also urged NATO allies not to send its troops. The US military has done training for Ukrainian troops in Poland, Germany and the United States, but pulling troops out of Ukraine is time-consuming. American officials now acknowledge that the current training by Ukrainian forces is not sufficient and that they need better and faster training to push back on an expected Russian drive this summer."  (quotation source:  New York Times, May 17, 2024)

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May 19 Ukraine claimed to have struck and severely damaged a Russian warship in a drone attack on the Russian naval base at Sevastopol. Named Tsiklon, the vessel is a Karakurt Class corvette. (A naval corvette is a small, fast warship, equipped with various torpedo and missile systems and usually operates in coastal waters.) The Tsiklon's weaponry included Kalibr missiles. Kalibrs are cruise missiles have a range of up to 1600 miles. If reports are accurate, the Tsiklon is the last Russian corvette in the Black Sea. 

May 20  With his five-year term of office about to expire, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced that a Ukraine at war could not risk holding elections. Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers would be unable to vote as would those Ukrainians living in the Donbas and other areas under Russian occupation.  Polling places would be certain targets for Russian attacks. The country had been under martial law since the war began in 2022. Elections, it was said, could be held once the war is won.  

May 23  The Brazilian and Chinese governments proposed a “Six-Point Consensus” upon which a peaceful settlement of the war might be based. The six points are: 1) non-escalation 2) direct negotiation, an international peace conference accepted by both Russia and Ukraine, and discussion of all peace plans 3) Humanitarian assistance, exchange of prisoners of war, no attacks on civilians 4) No use of weapons of mass destruction 5) No attacks on nuclear power stations; respect for the Convention on Nuclear Safety 6) Stable global trade. "The two sides call for efforts to enhance international cooperation on energy, currency, finance, trade, food security and the security of critical infrastructure, including oil and gas pipelines, undersea optical cables, electricity and energy facilities, and fiber-optic networks, so as to protect the stability of global industrial and supply chains."  This criteria was reintroduced at the UN General Assembly meeting in September. (See Sept. 28, 2024 below.)

May 30  In a significant change in policy, US President Biden announced that Ukraine may use US-provided weapons against Russian positions inside Russia.  Since the war began in 2022, the US had prohibited Ukraine from using any American armaments in attacks aimed at targets inside Russia.  (See May 18 above.)  At a press conference in Prague, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed the decision had been made following a request from Ukraine. “Over the past few weeks, Ukraine came to us and asked for the authorization to use weapons that were provided to defend against this aggression” near Kharkiv, "including against Russian forces that are massing on the Russian side of the border.”  (quotation source: CNN) Primarily through drone and rocket strikes, Ukraine had been attacking targets inside Russia since the war began. But it was using weapons of its own manufacture. The most active use of foreign weapons has been against Russian forces inside Ukraine or in the Donbas and Crimea, regions that are internationally recognized as parts of Ukraine. Only Russia claims that the Donbas and Crimea are legally part of Russia. 

Germany announced that it will allow Ukraine to use German long-range weapons against targets in Russia but only in the defense of Kharkiv. The change in stance on deploying Western weapons into Russian territories has given rise to questions over whether the F-16 fighter jets expected imminently in Ukraine will also be permitted to strike on Russian soil. 

May 31  When asked about the use of Western-provided F-16 fighter jets, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy  replied, "I'm not sure that for today we have [the] possibility to use these jets on the territory of Russia, we will see. We began to speak to speak about it, and I think that using any weapon, Western kind of weapon, on the territory of Russia, it's ... it's a question of time, I think so," Zelenskyy said, arguing that Russian troops can otherwise continue capitalizing on carrying out offensives from borderline positions. "This way, they attack, and we can't."  (quotation source: CNBC)

Zelenskyy's remarks were made  in Stockholm, Sweden, where he was attending the Nordic- Ukrainian Summit Meeting. Called by Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristerssen, the summit (May 31) included the prime Ministers of Norway, Denmark, Finland, and Iceland. Zelenskyy had earlier visited Spain, Portugal, and Belgium, concluding three new bilateral security agreements. 

June 3   In a statement on the Russian news service TASS, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov warned  the US of the potential "fatal consequences" of permitting Ukraine to use US-supplied weapons against targets inside Russia. "For some unknown reason, they (the US) underestimate the seriousness of the rebuff they may receive." (quotation source: CNBC)   

June 5  Speaking to a gathering of international journalists, Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed a question by a reporter relating to Russia's possibly attacking the NATO alliance.  Angered, Putin responded, “There is this fanciful stuff that Russia wants to attack NATO.  Are you out of your mind? Are you as dumb as this table?  Who made that up?!  It’s nonsense, do you understand?  It’s a bunch of gibberish!” (quotation source: HuffPost UK) 

           A Reuters reporter asked if Russia would use tactical (battlefield) nuclear weapons in Ukraine. “You know, they keep trying to accuse us of brandishing some nuclear sabre.  But was it me who just raised the question about the possibility of using nuclear weapons? You did.  You are suggesting this subject to me and afterward you will say that I was brandishing the nuclear sabre.  For some reason, the West believes that Russia will never use it ("nuclear sabre"). But we have our nuclear doctrine.  Take a look at what it says.  If someone’s actions threaten our sovereignty and territorial integrity, we believe that it is possible to use all means at our disposal. This should not be treated lightly; this should be treated with professionalism.”  Seeming to relax, Putin continued, “Let us all prevent not just the use of (a nuclear weapon) but also threats of using it.”  He then informed his audience that the nuclear bombs dropped by the US on Hiroshima and Nagasaki had the explosive power of 20 kilotons. (A kiloton is equivalent to 1,000 tons of TNT).  Russia's Tactical nuclear weapons, he said, have the explosive yield of  70-75 kilotons.  (quotations source: HuffPost UK) 

In commenting on the US presidential election, Putin said that Russia “does not care” who wins as “nothing serious” will change in US policy towards Russia.  But he conceded it was “hard to say” whether a second Trump presidency could change the situation in Ukraine, adding: “I can’t make a definite conclusion as to whether something will change or not. One has to look at the priorities of the future administration .... No one in the United States is interested in Ukraine, they are interested in the greatness of the United States, which is fighting not for Ukraine and the Ukrainian people, but for its own greatness. But if the future administration will change its goal-setting vector ... then something may change.” (quotation source: The Independent)

June 6   Ukrainian President  Zelenskyy traveled to Normandy, France, to attend ceremonies commemorating the 80th anniversary of D-Day. At the American cemetery he met with US President Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron.  In his remarks, Biden described Ukraine’s fight against Russia as similar to the war against Nazi Germany and warned against isolationism. 

 (author's comment: Biden was referencing the isolationist thinking that was prevalent among Americans in the late 1930s and early '40's as Europe faced the threat of German aggression.  Hoping to avoid war, the British and French leadership followed a policy of appeasement of German demands for territory.  That failed when Germany invaded Poland in 1939, and both countries declared war.  In 1940 an "America First" sentiment characterized political opposition to President franklin D. Roosevelt (FDR), who, needing political support from both parties, approved neutrality legislation.  "He kept us out of war!" was a rallying slogan for FDR's unprecedented - and successful - run for reelection in 1940. Isolationism and America First are very much sentiments of Donald Trump, Biden's opponent in the 2024 presidential election.)

June 7  Following the D-Day ceremonies, Biden continued on for a state visit to France with Macron providing all the pomp and circumstance characterizing such visits. There he again met with Zelenskyy and announced a new $225 million arms and aid package for Ukraine.

June 8  The war, of course, continues. Ukraine reported that its air defense forces shot down nine of 13 Russian Shahed drones and one missile over the central Poltava, Zaporizhzhia, Dneipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv regions of the country.  Commercial and residential buildings were damaged, but there was no report of military or civilian casualties. 

June 12   Reminiscent of Cold War tensions centering on Cuba in 1962, a group of Russian naval vessels arrived in Havana for a five day visit.  The four ships are a salvage tugboat, fuel tanker, frigate, and nuclear submarine. Of the four, only the frigate and submarine are warships, and the US Navy verified that neither carried nuclear weapons or represented a threat to the US. The Russian ships were shadowed by US naval units as the Caribbean is seen as a region vital to US security. Readers are reminded that Havana is only a hundred miles from Key West, Florida.  According to American University Professor William Leogrande, an expert on US and Latin American relations, the visit is seen as "Putin's way of reminding Biden that Moscow can challenge Washington in its own sphere of influence." US-Cuban relations have been strained for decades and a present crisis of shortages of food, medicines, and fuel has compelled Cuba to seek closer ties with Russia. "This ... has echoes of the Cold War, but unlike the first Cold War, the Cubans are drawn to Moscow not by ideological affinity but by economic necessity," (quotations source: Reuters)   (See the author's comment on May 14, 2023, for a consideration of the US strategic interest in Caribbean region.) 

 June 13 -15  The leaders of the Group of Seven met at the Borgo Egnazia, a luxury resort in Fasano in southern Italy, for the annual G 7 summit.  Attending the meeting were European Council President Charles Michel, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, US President Joseph Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.  (G 7? See June 27, 2022 above.)  

(The meeting had global representation far beyond the G 7 leadership. Other invited leaders were  Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, Argentinian President Javier Milei, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Jordanian King Abdullah II, Kenyan President William Ruto, Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani (representing the African Union), Tunisian President Kaïs Saïed, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, United Arab Emirates President Mohamed bin Zayed, and Vatican City's Pope Francis.)   

The G 7's primary agenda item was the war in Ukraine and further sanctioning of Russia. It was agreed that post-war canceling of sanctioned Russian assets (worth $260 billion) would be held up until Russia pays reparations for its invasion of Ukraine.  Ukraine was then granted a $50 billion loan for military, economic and humanitarian needs and reconstruction. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy traveled to Borgo Egnazia to meet with President Biden to sign a 10-year bilateral security agreement.  Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, described the agreement as a “real marker” of the U.S. commitment to Ukraine, “not just for this month and this year, but for the many years ahead.” Zelenskyy said the agreement is “unprecedented, as it should be for leaders who support Ukraine.” Sullivan added that the agreement would not commit US troops to Ukraine’s defense.  (quotations source: Associated Press) 

In the event of an armed attack or threat of such against Ukraine, top U.S. and Ukrainian officials will meet within 24 hours to consult on a response and determine what additional defense needs are required for Ukraine. "To ensure Ukraine’s security, both sides recognize Ukraine needs a significant military force, robust capabilities, and sustained investments in its defense industrial base that are consistent with North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) standards .... The United States intends to provide long-term materiel, training and advising, sustainment, intelligence, security, defense industrial, institutional, and other support to develop Ukrainian security and defense forces that are capable of defending a sovereign, independent, democratic Ukraine and deterring future aggression." The agreement is not a treaty requiring Congressional ratification and could be amended or cancelled by a future president. (quotation source: Reuters)

The international impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) was also a major area of G 7 discussion, a topic addressed by Pope Francis on June 14. The 87-year-old Pontiff was the first Pope ever to attend a significant international summit meeting. AI, Francis said, represented an "epochal transformation" for humanity, but stressed the need for close oversight of the ever-developing technology to preserve human life and dignity. "No machine should ever choose to take the life of a human being," he said, adding that people should not let superpowerful algorithms decide their destiny.  "We would condemn humanity to a future without hope if we took away people's ability to make decisions about themselves and their lives, by dooming them to depend on the choices of machines." (quotation source: Reuters)  

(author's comment: AI if applied to military use remains an area of unknown consequence. There exists the danger that a weapons system tied into AI might perceive imminent threat and act independently of human control to meet that threat. For example, maneuvers during a nation's war games might be "understood" by AI as actual warfare requiring an immediate response with actual weapons.) 

June 13 -14  In Brussels, Belgium, NATO defense ministers met to discuss a new plan for long-term assistance and military training for Ukraine to be presented at the NATO summit in Washington later in July.  NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, said that "Ukraine’s beleaguered armed forces need longer-term predictability about the kinds of weapons, ammunition and funds they can expect to receive ....The whole idea is to minimize the risk for gaps and delays as we saw earlier this year,” Stoltenberg told reporters. The hold-up, he said, “is one of the reasons why the Russians are now able to push and to actually occupy more land in Ukraine.”  Stoltenberg said he hopes the US will maintain its funding level for military support. He estimates that at $43 billion worth of equipment per year.  

(author's comment:  The earlier "gaps and delays" is in reference to the partisan stalemate in the US Congress in relation to the passage of a $95.34 billion aid bill back in the winter of '23-'24. That delay in military assistance enabled Russia to make significant gains on the battlefront. Ukraine is still short of critical weaponry, particularly Patriot missiles.) 

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán announced that he would not veto the NATO plan if Hungary is not forced to take part.  Stoltenberg assured him that NATO cannot compel its members to send weapons or ammunition to Ukraine.  All NATO assistance is provided by its members on a voluntary bilateral basis.  The other 31 NATO states "see Russia’s war on Ukraine as an existential security threat to Europe, but most of them, including Biden, have been extremely cautious to ensure that NATO is not drawn into a wider conflict with Russia." (quotations source: Associated Press)

June 14  In a speech at the Foreign Ministry in Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia would agree to an immediate truce and negotiations for peace if Ukraine would recognize Russian sovereignty over those territories claimed as part of Russia (Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Crimea) and renounce its intention to seek NATO membership. He also referred to his justification for the 2022 invasion, the need to "denazify" and demilitarize to create a "neutral, nonaligned, non-nuclear" Ukraine. “Today we are making another concrete, real peace proposal .... If Kyiv and the Western capitals refuse it, as before, then in the end, that’s their business and their political and moral responsibility for the continuation of bloodshed .... The essence of our proposal is not some kind of temporary truce or suspension of fire, as the West would want it to restore losses, rearm the Kyiv regime, prepare it for a new offensive,” he said.  “I repeat, we are not talking about freezing the conflict but about ending it.” (quotations source: Washington Post)   Readers can see that Putin's speech contains nothing new about Russia's conditions for peace. It comes on the eve of The Summit for Peace in Ukraine, another international conference to address the war.  Zelenskyy called the Russian offer "absurd."

June 15 - 16  The Summit for Peace in Ukraine met at the Buergenstock resort near Lucerne in Switzerland.  The conference was the result of Swiss authorities meeting with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy in January of 2024.  Some 157 countries and organizations were invited, and 100 attended.  The US was represented by Vice President Kamala Harris and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan.  At Zelenskyy's request Russia was not invited, and China declined to attend on the grounds that both warring parties needed to be part of any actual peace discussions. Attending the meeting, Zelenskyy pressed for food security, nuclear safety, and the release of all prisoners and deportees, including Ukrainian children taken by Russia in 2022.  The nuclear safety issue relates to the precarious circumstances of Ukrainian nuclear power plants in war zones, Zaporizhzhia in particular.  US Vice President Harris announced a $1.7 billion US aid package for Ukraine. Of that package $500 million is designated for repair and restoration of Ukrainian energy infrastructure.  Some $379 million is designated for humanitarian assistance, to "address urgent needs of refugees, internally displaced persons, and conflict affected communities impacted by Russia’s brutal war against the Ukrainian people.”  The funding includes "food assistance, health services, shelter, water, sanitation and hygiene services. It will also include psychological support services and other assistance so families can restore income and meet basic needs." (quotation source, The Hill)

A statement was issued at the end of the conference confirming all of Zelenskyy's points as the foundations for peace. Nothing, however, was stated about Ukraine seeking NATO membership.  The statement was signed by 79 nations and four international organizations: the European Commission, the Council of Europe, the European Council, and the European Parliament.  Notable, however were those states that did not sign: Brazil, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, India, and Indonesia, all six being members of the Group of Twenty. 

June 18-19  Russian President Vladimir Putin made a two day state visit to Pyongyang, capital of communist North Korea, to meet with President Kim Jong Un.  North Korea is providing arms to Russia and Putin sought continued shipments of anti-tank missiles, portable surface-to-air missiles, rifles, rocket launchers, mortars, and ammunition.  Russia provides military-related technical assistance, especially in long-range missile development.  Both countries deny such a relationship. Both countries signed a mutual security pact, pledging to aid each other if attacked.  It was Putin's first visit to Pyongyang in 24 years.  Prior to his trip Putin wrote an op ed published in North Korean newspapers saying, "Pyongyang has always been our committed and like-minded supporter, ready to confront the ambition of the collective West to prevent the emergence of a multipolar world order based on justice, mutual respect for sovereignty and consideration of each other’s interests."  (quotation source: Fox News) The two leaders did meet briefly in eastern Russia in September 2023 while Putin was on a visit to Vladivostok.  

June 20  From North Korea Putin moved on to Hanoi, capital of Vietnam. There he met with Communist Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong and President To Lam.  Signing numerous cooperation agreements, Putin agreed to supply fossil fuels, including natural gas to Vietnam.  Speaking on Russia's relationship with Vietnam,  Putin said the two countries share an interest in “developing a reliable security architecture” in the Asia-Pacific region with no room for “closed military-political blocs.” President Lam added that both Russia and Vietnam wanted to "further cooperate in defense and security to cope with non-traditional security challenges.” (quotations source: Associated Press)

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author's comment: Putin did not include China on his Asian trip. Observers see this as a strategic move to expand Russian influence in areas that China sees as in its vital interest. Both China and Vietnam are in dispute over oil-rights claims in the South China Sea.  Russia provides oil exploration technology to Vietnam, enhancing its ability to develop and expand its presence in the region. Throw into the mix the US ally, The Philippines. The Philippines also has oil claims in the South China Sea.  There have been some tense moments as Philippine, Chinese, and Viet naval and coast guard units confront each other.  

In regard to the war in Ukraine, China seems content to stand aside, acting as an arbiter for some sort of settlement. But China has reason to be concerned about Putin's new relationship with North Korea and Vietnam.   Historically, China and Vietnam had been enemies, both in China's pre-Communist Imperial history and as recently as 1979 when a brief Sino-Viet war was fought over claims to Cambodia. Those tensions were not resolved until 1991.   China has traditionally acted as a "big brother" to North Korea as it presses its claim to sovereignty over all of the Korean Peninsula. After all, It was China's intervention in the Korean War (1950-1953)  that saved North Korea from being overrun by the US-led United Nations alliance fighting to protect South Korea. China has also been North Korea's largest trading partner. Putin's policies, however, might compel the North Koreans to see Russia as a more valuable ally. Russia also needs new trade contacts as the war in Ukraine has pretty much cut off Russian commerce with Europe and the West. As for Russia's reaching  out to other allies, Peter Tesch, former Australian ambassador to Russia, sees Putin as being "quite happy for Russia to be the smelliest, farting uncle at the barbecue ..." The signal to the West is "Yes, I am a disrupter, I can act in ways that increase the complexity of what you're trying to manage." (Quotation source: New York Times)

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June 23  Continuing reconstruction of his group of close advisors, Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly replaced Federal Security Service (FSB) Fifth Directorate head Sergei Beseda with one Alexi Komkov, a former FSB deputy head.  The FSB is Russia's intelligence bureau, similar to the US CIA. In other words, its chief spy service.  The FSB Fifth Directorate operates intelligence gathering in Ukraine. In 2022 it was Beseda who provided Putin with information that a Russian invasion would be an easy success. The change was officially announced that Beseda had resigned, having reached the mandatory retirement age of 70.   Observers speculate that Komkov is only a front for one Sergei Korolev, former head of FSB's Internal Security.  According to Newsweek, Korolev  aspires to be FSB Director. (author's comment: It is interesting that Putin did not fire Beseda when it became evident that Russia's invasion of Ukraine did not lead to a speedy victory.) 

June 24  While officially saying that it is a friend of Russia and does not send arms to Ukraine, Serbia, however, seems to be doing just that.  On June 23 the British newspaper Financial Times reported that some $855 million worth of ammunition had been indirectly shipped to Ukraine.  Indirectly because it’s first shipped to (purchased by) third party countries. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić stated that while Serbia does not send weapons to either Russia or Ukraine, it does have contracts with the US, Spain, Czech Republic, and other countries, and "what they do with that in the end is their job." When asked about Serbia's ammunition sales, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said "we have seen and heard these statements by Mr. Vučić …. We will deal with this topic in contacts with our Serbian friends."  

Vučić told the Financial Times that the sales of Serbian ammunition were "part of our economic revival and important for us …. I need to take care of my people … we have friends in Kyiv and in Moscow. These are our Slav brothers."

In an interview with Newsweek, Nikola Mikovik, a Serbian political analyst, said that Russia tolerates the sales of Serbian ammunition "because the Kremlin aims to preserve an illusion at home that there is a European country (Serbia) that has not taken an anti-Russian stance." (quotation sources: Russian news agency TASS via Financial Times via Newsweek)

July 2 During his first visit to neighboring Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán told President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that the war was Europe’s “most important issue,” and recommended an immediate cease-fire. Orbán's visit to Kyiv was a step in his so-called "Peace Mission 5.0" wherein he is meeting Putin in Russia and Xi Jinping in China. His tour also included a stop in Azerbaijan and ended in Washington for the NATO summit on July 9.  Orbán has routinely blocked, delayed or watered down EU efforts to extend assistance to Ukraine and to sanction Moscow over its war, frustrating both Zelenskyy and other EU leaders. “We are trying to leave the disputes of the past behind us and focus on the period ahead,” Orbán said in brief comments to journalists following the talks. “We would like relations between our two countries to be much better.”  Orbán sees an immediate cease-fire as the first step to any settlement. That is absolutely unacceptable to Zelenskyy, but he did express gratitude for Hungary's humanitarian support. He also suggested that Hungary take an active leadership role in organizing a second European summit meeting. (The first being the summit in Switzerland in June.)     (author's comment: For the 5th piece of his "peace Mission", Orbán also tacked on a July 11 meeting with Donald Trump in Florida. The two see eye-to-eye regarding the future of Ukraine.) (quotations source: Associated Press)

author's comment (July 2): Readers, if there are any, will notice that I let lapse my almost daily reporting of events relating to the renewed Cold War to more infrequent updates. In this one, I am sharing my own comments and observations on recent events. 

It is clear that Donald Trump will be the Republican Party's nominee for the presidential election in Nov. 2024. Until recently it was assumed that the Democratic Party will nominate President Joseph Biden for a second term. I say "assumed," because in the Presidential Debate on June 27, Biden appeared weak-voiced, confused, and uncertain on the issues questioned.  His poor showing, his office said, was because he had a cold.  Immediate media reaction was: Biden's reelection was suddenly in doubt. The question was: should he withdraw from the presidential race in favor of another candidate? If so, who might that candidate be? No one in the Democratic Party had heretofore expressed any interest in seeking nomination. The next day, June 28, Biden made a powerful campaign speech in Chicago asserting that he had had a bad night, his health was fine, and he knows how to do the job (Presidency). Trump was his usual self in the debate, denying any wrongdoing, accusing Biden of all kinds of policy deceits, and asserting his version of truth.  That did not matter. The outcome of the debate was a stunning lack of confidence in Biden as a candidate.

So how does this affect the war in Ukraine? Biden has been unrelentingly committed to a policy of supporting Ukraine that has been evident throughout this narrative. He has met with NATO leaders, encouraging their continued support for Ukraine.  Yet we have seen a reluctance among Republicans in Congress to provide financial and other assistance, saying Ukraine is a distraction from the greater threat, a porous US border and unchecked illegal entry by thousands of migrants.  Trump says he can end the war in Ukraine within a day of his assuming the presidency.  He does not say how, but he appears to believe that Putin and he can make a "deal."  Trump has also evidenced a dislike for NATO, seeing the alliance as dependent on the US and not making the financial efforts sufficient enough to strengthen their own armed forces.  The US is now facing a difficult identity crisis regarding its role in the Arab-Israeli conflict in Gaza, a matter that has profound implications for the political future. Whatever weakens Biden is much to Putin's advantage.  

And now, on top of all this, the US Supreme Court in a 6-3 ruling announced on July 1, proclaimed that a US President has the right to immunity from prosecution in taking official actions that could later be called crimes by the President's political enemies. This was in reference to Trump's attempt to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election.  (Trump's sanctioning the January 6, 2021 mob attack on the US Capitol in order to prevent the ratification of the electoral count.)  In effect this means that a President is unlimited in the exercise of executive power. If what the President does is seen as a crime, the President is immune from prosecution.  If Donald Trump is elected President, once he's inaugurated, he can do whatever he wants with impunity. This prospect terrifies a great many Americans and US allies across the globe. Have a nice day! (end of author's comment)

June 30  French voters went to the polls in the first round of parliamentary elections for the 577-seat National Assembly. The National Assembly is the lower house of the French government and, as such, corresponds to the US House of Representatives. The upper house is the Senate. Of the two bodies, the National Assembly is the preeminent.  There are two rounds of elections, both on successive Sundays. France has a multi-party political system, meaning that it is difficult for any one party to win a majority in either house. Therefore, legislation is dependent upon parties forming coalitions and acting together in common interests or making deals to support one another. France has 38 parties spread across the political spectrum. The formation of coalitions is difficult and constantly in flux depending upon issues. As a parliamentary system, France has a Prime Minister, but executive power resides primarily in the Presidency. The present President, in office since 2017, is Emmanuel Macron.

In what may be signaling a change in direction for France, the far-right National Rally party (RN en Français) party led by Jordan Bardella won 33.15% of the vote. The left wing New Popular Front coalition won 28% of the vote, and Macron's Ensemble alliance polled only 20.76% of the vote. The minimum majority for control of the National Assembly is 289 seats.  The RN is expected to win the most seats in the Assembly but not get a majority. The election results reflect considerable dissatisfaction within the French electorate for the more moderate and liberal policies of Macron's government. 

RN leader Bardella is a protégé of Marine Le Pen.  A veteran of French conservative politics since 1986, Le Pen had three times campaigned for President, the last being in 2022. Her political activism is reflective of that of Donald Trump (only with a bit more grace). She calls for strong anti-immigration, nationalist, and protectionist measures and is opposed to globalization and multiculturalism. She admires Russian President Putin, but strongly condemned the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.  Le Pen turned the RN leadership over to Bardella in 2022 but remains a leading voice in RN policy making. What is disturbing to the US is that the rise of the French right could weaken French support for the NATO alliance and end French support for Ukraine. 

(Need a reminder of the left-center-right political spectrum?  It had its origin during the French Revolution and is considered in Chapter 11, part 1. Very simply, the left is liberal, the center is moderate, the right is conservative. There are, however, extremes of both the left and right.  The far-right are reactionaries.  The far-left are radicals. History has shown that reactionaries and radicals are not beyond using violence in pursuit of their political aims.) 

July 5 In a stunning outcome to Parliamentary elections in Britain, voters overwhelmingly rejected the incumbent Conservative Party's control of government. Winning 414 seats in the 650-seat House of Commons, the Labor Party, led by Keir Starmer, assumed control of government. Following traditional protocol, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak met with King Charles III at Buckingham Palace to present his formal resignation.  (Sunak, however, still retains his seat in the Commons as Leader of the Opposition.) Starmer also traveled to the Palace to receive the King's official appointment as Prime Minister. The victory ended 14 years of Conservative Party control of Parliament. 

Clearly, the British electorate, much like the French, wanted a change.  But, unlike the French who voted for the conservative right, the English voted for the liberal left.  Speaking outside of the official residence of the Prime Minister at 10 Downing Street, Starmer acknowledged that many people are disillusioned and cynical about politics but said his government would try to restore faith in government. “My government will fight every day until you believe again"...“The work for change begins immediately. We will rebuild Britain …. Brick by brick we will rebuild the infrastructure of opportunity.” (quotation source: Associated Press)  Starmer is in favor of NATO and Britain's continued support for Ukraine.  While the Conservative Party's representation in the Commons is the lowest since the party originated in the 1830s, the rise of several smaller parties contributed to the Conservative loss.  (The Conservative Party is the political descendent of the Tories, and Conservative politicians are still today referred to as Tories.)  

For most of the last two centuries, Britain has been thought of as a two-party electorate, liberal and conservative, but smaller parties have played a role in British politics. The Liberal Democratic Party won 71 seats in the new Parliament. A right-wing  party, calling itself Reform UK, won four seats. Led by one Nigel Farage who holds one of those seats, Reform UK wants to “take our country back” and with its anti-immigration position, undercut support for the Conservatives. Farage comes closest to the French Marine Le Pen in his political thinking.  In Scotland, the Scottish National Party lost considerable representation winning only nine seats. It had held 48 seats.  Elsewhere across the UK, Sinn Féin became the largest Northern Irish party in Parliament, winning seven of the 18 seats there. Its MPs (Members of Parliament) do not occupy their seats, asserting that Britain does not exercise legal sovereignty over Northern Ireland which they insist should be part of the Republic of Ireland. 

July 7  Back to France!  The second round of parliamentary elections in France surprisingly reversed the trend to the right seen in the first round of June 30.  Voters returned to the National Assembly a leftist coalition of parties calling itself the New Popular Front (NFP en Français). However, NFP's 182 seats were  not enough to secure a majority in the 577-seat body. President Macron's Ensemble alliance placed second (163 seats) and Jordan Bardella's right wing National Rally came in third (143 seats). It was thought that after the June 30 elections, the National Rally party would win a majority.  With no coalition holding a majority, France is left with a hung parliament. Unless some kind of agreement can be reached between the left and center coalitions, France will face political paralysis. 

July 8 - 9  The war in Ukraine, of course, continues.  Russia launched a wide-spread missile and drone strike on targets in Kyiv, Kryvyi Rih, and Dnipro, killing 38 and injuring another 200.  Unlike other aerial attacks this one was during daylight.  Among the sites hit in Kyiv was the Okhmatdyt children’s hospital.  Russia denied responsibility for the hospital strike, insisting it doesn’t attack civilian targets.  Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that the hospital was hit by a Ukrainian air defense missile. 

The attack came as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was meeting with Russian President Putin in Moscow.  In remarks following Putin's welcoming embrace and address, Modi made refence to the Russian attack.  “Whether it is war, conflict or a terrorist attack, any person who believes in humanity, is pained when there is loss of lives ... But even in that, when innocent children are killed, the heart bleeds and that pain is very terrifying ... Resolution can’t be found on the battlefield, peace needs to be pursued through dialog and diplomacy.” 

Modi posted photos of himself on X hugging Putin when they met, saying he was looking forward to more talks “which will surely go a long way in further cementing the bonds of friendship between India and Russia.” 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was deeply critical of Modi’s Moscow visit, saying “It is a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world’s largest democracy hug the world’s most bloody criminal in Moscow on such a day.” (quotations source: Associated Press and Bloomberg)  India has not condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine or joined other states in sanctioning trade with Russia. 

July  9 - 11  The leaders of the 32-member NATO alliance assembled in Washington on the occasion of the 75th anniversary of the organization's founding.  (NATO is considered in Chapter 25, part 5.) In addition to the NATO states, the leaders of South Korea, Japan, New Zealand, Ukraine, and  representatives of the European Union were also participating in the conference. (Australia was invited, but declined to attend.) States on Russia's periphery such as Moldova, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Georgia are also attending.  Key among leaders attending were French President Emmanuel Macron, the new British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, US President Joseph Biden (officially the meeting's host), Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán,  Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson (This is Sweden's first NATO summit since joining the alliance in March 2024.), Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. 

In his welcoming speech, Biden presented NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg (Norway) with the Presidential Medal of Freedom, citing Stoltenberg's leadership over the past decade.  Stoltenberg's term as NATO Secretary General ends on Oct. 1. He will be replaced by the former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte.

 Biden set the tone and direction of the NATO summit in his welcoming speech. The primary focus of the meeting would be the continuation of NATO assistance to Ukraine. "Putin wants nothing less -- nothing less than Ukraine's total subjugation, to end Ukraine's democracy, to destroy Ukraine's culture and to wipe Ukraine off the map and we know Putin won't stop at Ukraine," Biden declared. "But make no mistake Ukraine can and will stop Putin ....The United States will make sure that when we export critical air defense interceptors, Ukraine goes to the front of the line. They will get this assistance before anyone else gets it .... All told, Ukraine will receive hundreds of additional interceptors over the next year, helping protect Ukrainian cities against Russian missiles" (a reference to the Russian aerial attack that hit a children's hospital in Kyiv the day before).  ABC News reported that "the  commitments Biden outlined included four Patriot anti-missile batteries; the US, Germany, and Romania will supply one each, and the fourth will be cobbled together from components provided by the Netherland and other NATO members, according to a statement from the countries." (quotations source: ABC News) 

 (author's comment:  Of course, in the back of the minds of many hearing the speech was the disturbing remembrance of Biden's poor performance in the debate with Trump on June 27th. How did he look today? Was he forceful? Was what he was saying coherent? Did he appear capable of surmounting a grueling presidential campaign?  Would he even be President come the inauguration in January?  Even if he wins, will he live through another four-year term? No matter how Biden presents himself from now on, those questions will persist.

Then there's the question, what if Trump wins the election? Trump has shown himself to be no friend of NATO. Back on February 10th, he railed against NATO, claiming its members count on the US to protect them and that they have not paid their debts to the US.  If they don't pay their debts, he would not protect them and Russia could "do whatever the hell it wants" with them. (See February 10-11, above.)  The prospect of a Trump presidency is quite unsettling to NATO. (end of author's comment)

Prior to the opening of the Washington meeting,  NATO General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg held a press conference in which he explained the invitation to New Zealand, Australia, Japan, and South Korea. "Our security is not regional, it is global" and that it is important to "work closely with our friends in the Indo-Pacific." This remark provoked a strong response from China. 

In Beijing Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian addressed reporters saying, “The security that NATO speaks of is a sacrifice at the expense of other countries’ security. What NATO does brings an extremely high-security risk to the world and the region .... China firmly opposes NATO’s attack on China ("attack" meaning criticism of China) and the shifting of responsibility. We oppose NATO's using China as an excuse to advance into the Asia-Pacific region and accelerate territorial dispute.”  He added that NATO has been creating false perceptions of China internationally and urged the alliance to stop creating “imaginary enemies" and provoking international conflict.   When asked about Russia's new military pact with North Korea (See June 18 above.), Lin Jian replied that it was "cooperation between the two sovereign countries of North Korea and Russia.” (quotations source: Agence France-Presse) 

Previously, the Chinese Foreign Ministry had criticized NATO, claiming the alliance "is a product of the Cold War. It is the world’s largest military alliance. On one hand, it claims to be a regional and defensive organization, but on the other hand, it constantly crosses boundaries and expands its authority. It promotes confrontation beyond its defense zone.” The Ministry added, “It should not attempt to disrupt the Asia-Pacific region after disrupting Europe.” It seems clear that China strongly opposes NATO’s cooperation with the Asia-Pacific region. (quotations source: Agence France-Presse)  

Of course, with Ukraine being the primary focus of the NATO summit, Ukrainian President Voloymyr Zelenskyy appealed for both increased assistance and admission to NATO. In a July 9th address at Washington's Reagan Institute, Zelenskyy said, “It’s time to step out of the shadows to make strong decisions to act and not wait for November or any other months to descend. We must be strong and uncompromising all together."  The President of the United States, he said, must be “uncompromising in defending democracy, uncompromising against Putin and his coterie.” (quotation source: Associated Press) "I hope that if the people of America will elect President Trump, I hope that his policy with Ukraine will not change," Zelenskyy said in a question-and-answer session after his speech, "I hope that the United States will never go out from NATO. Otherwise, he said, "the world will lose a lot of countries" that "count on America." (quotation source: Fox News)  The Reagan Institute is a think tank and policy research organization focusing on issues related to national security, economic policy, and governance. Zelenskyy chose that site for his remarks as the Institute's membership is primarily Republican. 

(author's comment) As for Ukraine being admitted to NATO, that is not going to happen. The alliance will allow Ukraine access to "a bridge to membership," but not membership under present conditions.  That "bridge" requires Ukraine to meet NATO standards for governmental, economic, and rule-of-law reforms that Ukraine must first fulfill.  That means cleaning up corruption in all areas of the country's economic, political, and justice systems. This would require intensive self-examination, prosecution, and reform: processes that could take years to accomplish.  Even if that were accomplished, it would have to be during a time of peace.  In other words, the present war must be over.  NATO membership commits states to the defense of all others in the alliance.  This policy is called deterrence. Very simply, an attack on one would be an attack on them all. A potential enemy would be deterred from risking war with all other NATO allies by attacking one of them. But, If Ukraine were allowed to join the alliance now, all other 32 allies would be required to go to war to defend it against Russia.  International agreements aside, every nation on Earth claims sovereignty as an independent state. Each NATO member, however, would certainly put its own interests first before committing to war. Why should Denmark, for example, send its armed forces to fight Russia in Ukraine?  NATO needs to demonstrate solidarity to be an effective deterrent. Viktor Orbán of Hungary has already shown that Hungary will cooperate with NATO only when it sees such cooperation to be in its interests.   (end of author's comment)

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Author’s comment  July 11, 2024  It may be of interest to my readers with Buffalo Seminary connections that since late October 2022, Mona Fetouh, Class of 1990, has been Chief of Evaluation for UNICEF in Kyiv. UNICEF is the United Nations Children's Fund. I asked her for an update on conditions in Kyiv. 

“I'm doing fine and still finding satisfaction in the work, though almost two years on am feeling a bit tired. It's summer now in Kyiv, and, on one hand it's great - lots of outdoor activities, people drinking cocktails on terraces, having barbecues, at the city beaches (yes there are some beaches on the river!) and parks etc. It's also very hot - much more than normal. Seems there are heat waves in many parts of the world these past few weeks. However, the main issue now is that the main power station that serves Kyiv has been badly damaged, so there are a lot of scheduled power cuts - for many hours a day. And that's projected to be the case for a couple of years, so people are worried about winter. Now with these high temperatures,  it's not easy without AC. For some reason my own apartment is not affected, but this is a very rare exception. The other main news was the terrible attack on Monday that hit the children's hospital. What kind of military targets sick children - the most vulnerable of society! (Sadly it's a common occurrence in Gaza these days as well but that's a whole other sad story).

Ukraine is becoming stricter about military conscription with a new law going into effect next week. Overall morale is much lower than before as things drag on, and the sad truth is that Russia has the population advantage. I imagine popular support for some kind of peace negotiation will start to build, but I don't know to what extent it exists now. People are also worried about waning international support, decreased weapons (including air defense systems) supplies, etc.  And yes, the US election is a concern, as a Trump victory will mean a very sharp decrease in support from the US. So, overall, the mood is not great, but people are continuing to live their lives with what joy they can, going to their dachas on weekends, gardening, and spending time with family.” 

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 July 12 Following the NATO summit, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán flew to Florida, meeting Donald Trump at Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort. He identified this mission as "peace mission 5.0"  (meaning fifth in a series of visits to other states, the last two being China and Russia). Posting on the social media platform X, Orbán  wrote, “It was an honor to visit President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago today. We discussed ways to make peace. The good news of the day: he’s going to solve it!”  Trump thanked Orbán in a Truth Social post, saying, “There must be PEACE, and quickly. Too many people have died in a war that should have never started!” he wrote. (quotation source: CNN)  (author's comment: It tells us something when Orbán's "peace missions" have him meeting with Xi and Putin, but not Biden.) 

July 13   Campaigning in western Pennsylvania, Donald Trump was slightly wounded in an assassination attempt while making a speech in Butler. The shooter was identified as 20-year old Thomas Crooks of Bethel Park, PA. Crooks was immediately killed by a Secret Service sharpshooter. Another person in the audience was killed and two more were injured in the attack. Surrounded by Secret Service personnel, Trump was rushed to a hospital in Butler, treated, and released. The bullet had only grazed his right ear. The shooter carried no identification but was identified by DNA proofing.  The site, a rooftop from which Crooks shot, was some 100 yards from Trump's podium and had not been previously secured by the Secret Service.  Investigation into Crooks' background found he was a registered Republican but had made a small financial donation to the Democratic Party. Trump was driven to Pittsburgh from where he was flown to Newark, New Jersey, and then to his golf resort in Bedminster.  (author's comment: What has this to do with the war in Ukraine?  In short, nothing - directly. However, Trump's popularity will rise, and the Republican Presidential Convention begins in Milwaukee on July 15. The Convention will get constant media coverage and Trump's message will certainly include his claim that he can end the war in one day if elected. Remember also that he shows no enthusiasm for the EU and US membership in NATO.)  

July 15  Putin's purge of potential enemies continues.  Newsweek Magazine reported that two associates of former Defense Minister Russian Sergei Shoigu were found dead in a Moscow detention center.  They were Magomed Khandayev, a Russian Defense Ministry official, and businessman Igor Kotelnikov.  Kotelnikov had been accused of corruption earlier in July and interrogated by the FSB seeking his testimony against former Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov. Khandayev had also been a close associate with Ivanov. No cause of death was given, causing rise to suspicions that they had been murdered under Putin's orders.  (See April 23 and May 12 and 14 above.)

July 15 Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy suggested that Russia should be at any future peace conference. Russia was not invited to participate in the Burgenstock summit in Switzerland in June.

Responding to Zelenskyy’s remarks, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, "The first peace summit (Burgenstock) was not a peace summit at all. So perhaps it is necessary to first understand what he (Zelenskyy) means."  Russia has made it clear that any peace talks must be based on recognition by Ukraine of Russia’s claim to sovereignty over Crimea and the Donbas and southern provinces currently being contested on the battlefront. Ukraine has insisted that any peace be based on Russian withdrawal from all territories, including Crimea.  

US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller commented, "When they (Ukraine) want to invite Russia to that summit, of course, that is something we (the US) support …. We've always supported diplomacy when Ukraine is ready, but it has never been clear that the Kremlin is ready for actual diplomacy.” (quotations source: Agence France-Presse)

July 17  Both Russia and Ukraine announced a prisoner of war (POW) exchange whereby 95 captives on each side were released. Most prisoner exchanges are not reported in the media, but there have been 54 such exchanges since the war began. The exchange was brokered by the United Arab Emirates.  Ukrainian authorities reported that among the POWs were some who had been captured in the early months of the war in Mariupol and in battles in eastern Luhansk. The Ukrainian Coordination Headquarters for POWs reported that over 3400 prisoners (both civilian and military) have been returned from Russian captivity since the war began.  The Russian Defense Ministry said the freed Russian soldiers will be flown to Moscow for medical treatment and rehabilitation.

July 18 The New York Times published an article on the effects of a recent heat wave across Ukraine. We have seen how Russia has made missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure a significant part of its offensive strategy.  In 2022 and '23 the attacks were largely in the fall, with the intent of shutting down power over the winter months.  In 2024 Russia renewed the attacks in late March.  Over the two and a half years of the war, Russian attacks have destroyed or disabled nearly all of Ukraine's thermal power plants and a third of its hydroelectric power stations.  As Mona Fetouh mentioned in her July 11 update above, the government has begun wide-scale power blackouts.  With temperatures now in the high 90s and 100s (Fahrenheit), the Times reports that every day "Ukrainians consult online timetables of planned power cuts that mark outage hours" with symbolic lightning bolts (blue for scheduled and gray for possible cuts". The blackouts may last up to ten hours and are rolling, morning, afternoon, and night. Businesses such as restaurants and grocery markets that depend on power for refrigeration, have had to either close or throw out rotted food. Of course, home refrigeration is also affected.  Many businesses and homes have hooked up gas powered generators to compensate for lost electricity. The demand for generators exceeds the supply, making them expensive and hard to find.  They are also extremely noisy and pollute the air with exhaust. Gas to fuel generators is also in demand and costly. Government operated utilities such as sewage and water and public transit systems as well as hospitals and medical centers are dependent upon electricity for their operation. Seeking some relief from the heat, Ukrainians crowd riverside beaches across the country. 

In the US the Republican Party's National Convention met in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, July 15-18. As there were no other challengers for the Presidential nomination, the party officially named Donald Trump as its candidate in the 2024 election.  The Convention also nominated Trump's choice for Vice President, Senator J.D. Vance of Ohio.  In his 90-plus minute acceptance speech Trump first recounted the July 13 assassination attempt but then launched into what the Washington Post called a "thoroughly confusing" and "meandering" and "often divisive" address. He promised to end "the horrible war with Russia and Ukraine" but did not say how.  In the past he has said he could end the war in one day if he were President.  

July 19 Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made a phone call to Trump congratulating him on his nomination and condemning the assassination attempt.  In a statement on X, Zelenskyy said,  "I wished him strength and absolute safety in the future .... Ukraine will always be grateful to the United States for its help in strengthening our ability to resist Russian terror. Russian attacks on our cities and villages continue every day. We agreed with President Trump to discuss at a personal meeting what steps can make peace fair and truly lasting."  He did add that in his conversation with Trump that it was important that US support for Ukraine be bipartisan and bicameral, reflective of political unity.  On his social media platform Truth Social, Trump said that Zelenskyy congratulated him on the very successful Republican National Convention and "becoming the Republican nominee for President of the United States .... I appreciate President Zelenskyy for reaching out because I, as your next President of the United States, will bring peace to the world and end the war that has cost so many lives and devastated countless innocent families,”   He added that both sides would be able to come together and agree on "a deal that ends the violence and paves a path forward to prosperity."  According to Zelenskyy's press secretary, Trump and Zelenskyy agreed to meet, but the date and format of the meeting has not been set. (quotation sources: RBC Ukraine and UPI)  

July 21  In a surprising announcement of historic significance, US President Joe Biden announced that he will not seek reelection. He made the announcement from his summer home in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, where he was recuperating from a bout with COVID-19.  USA Today stated the announcement "marks an extraordinary turn for Biden, who for three weeks remained defiant in the face of growing calls from Democratic lawmakers that he withdraw after a disastrous June 27 debate with Trump raised scrutiny over the president's mental fitness." The pressure for withdrawal came from the Democratic leadership in Congress as well as from major campaign donors.  Biden's decision makes Vice President Kamala Harris the frontrunner as the Democratic nominee, but other challengers may be include governors Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and Gavin Newsom of California.  Biden, 81, "has battled Americans’ concerns over his age since he took office but it turned into panic for Democrats after last month's debate with Trump .... Biden's campaign was in a free fall over the past few weeks with his future in doubt. Instead of focusing solely on Trump, Democrats spent as much time and energy debating whether Biden could even defeat his predecessor."  The last incumbent president to not seek reelection to a second term was Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968 "amid national unrest and turmoil within the Democratic Party over the Vietnam War."  Biden entered national political life in 1972 with an upset victory for U.S. Senate in Delaware. He served as a senator for 36 years, then as Barack Obama's vice president from 2009 to 2017. Biden returned to public life to run against Trump in the 2020 presidential election, beating Trump 51%-47% in the popular vote. (quotations source: USA Today)

July 22  The foreign ministers of the 27 state European Commission (the executive body of the European Union)  met at EU headquarters in Brussels to select new commissioners whose five-year term will begin in October 2024.  Their meeting was overshadowed by a demand by Hungary regarding its import of Russian oil. Claiming that the energy security of both Hungary and Slovakia faces” fundamental risk,” Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto demanded that the EU act to compel Ukraine to end its transit ban on the Russian oil company Lukoil.

Some background:  In response to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, the EU imposed sanctions on the purchase of Russian crude oil, cutting back, if not ending entirely, Russian pipeline transit of oil to EU member nations. Because of their landlocked location Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic were exempted from the EU ban. But much of the Russian oil passes through pipelines across Ukraine, and in June 2024 Ukraine sanctioned Lukoil.  Ukraine, however, did not sanctioned other Russian oil companies using the same pipeline. The loss of the Lukoil imports caused a drop by a third in Hungary’s oil imports, resulting in the possibility of electrical shortages and higher energy prices for Hungarian consumers. Szijjarto threatened a reduction or cut off of electricity to Ukraine as EU powerlines to Ukraine cross Hungary and demanded that the Commission mediate the matter. To add some muscle to its demand, Hungary blocked the EU’s $6.5 billion allocation of military aid for Ukraine.   The German news agency Deutsche Welle cited  Vaibhav Raghunandan, an analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, who said Hungary had already had a " 'long time" to find an alternative energy supply, but pointed out that Hungary's imports of Russian oil had instead increased "by 56%" since before the war. And, he added, despite being landlocked Hungary did have access to alternative routes.' They could definitely get supplies from Croatia via the Adria Pipeline,' or through the Transalpine Pipeline from Italy, he said.  Analysts have said that instead of reducing dependence on Russian oil supplies, Orbán is deliberately aiding the Russian economy and helping to fund the Kremlin's war." On July 30 Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico threatened to stop sending diesel fuel to Ukraine in response to Ukraine's halting of Lukoil's crude oil transit through its territory. Ukraine receives a tenth of its imported fuel from Slovakia. 

July 22 In response to Hungary's recent foreign policy actions, primarily  Orbán's "peace missions" to China and Russia (as well as his July 12 meeting with Donald Trump), the EU's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell rescinded Hungary's hosting of the August 28 meeting of the union's foreign and defense ministers.  Instead of Budapest, the conference will be held in Brussels.  Hungary now heads the Commission's rotating presidency, but Borrell said Hungary's actions should have consequences. The EU "had to send a signal, even if it is a symbolic signal." Borrell's actions are also seen as reflective of the EU's disapproval of Orbán's "peace missions." Responding to Borrell's action, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto commented, "What a fantastic response they have come up with .... I don't want to hurt anyone's feelings, but it feels like being in a kindergarten."  Orbán's "peace mission" sparked condemnation from leaders across the EU, with Commission President Ursula von der Leyen describing it as "nothing but an appeasement mission".  Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo said Orbán had "no mandate to negotiate or discuss on behalf of the EU", while Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said the trip sent "the wrong signal to the outside world and is an insult to the Ukrainian people’s fight for their freedom." (quotations source: BBC)

July 26 The 33rd Olympic Games opened in Paris.  Because of the 2022 Russian invasion and subsequent war in Ukraine, the International Olympic Committee has, with the exception of 36  athletes, banned Russia from the games. (There also existed a 2022 ban on Russian participation because of the doping of athletes.) The 36 permitted may compete in cycling, gymnastics, wrestling, tennis, canoe, judo and swimming.  Of those 36, however, only 15 will be participating. They are identified as Individual Neutral Athletes - Athlètes Individuels Neutres, AINs en Français- and will participate without the Russian flag or its national anthem. They will not march in the Opening Ceremonies parade, and any medals they might win will not be included in the official medal count. AINs will compete under their own flag and an anthem with no lyrics will be used at medal ceremonies.  (In the 2022 ban from the Winter Olympics, that anthem was from the beginning of Tchaikovsky's Piano Concerto No. 1.) Because of its support for Russia, Belarus has also been banned, but AIN athletes will participate under the same conditions. The Head of Russia's Olympic Committee Stanislav Pozdnyakov referred to the participating AINs as "foreign agents" as some of them live outside Russia. "Foreign agents" is a "derogatory designation for people the authorities consider to be working against the national interest." (quotation source: New York Times)  With 140 athletes in 22 events, Ukraine is participating in the games. 

July 27 Seemingly always willing to add fuel to the fire, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán stated “The Poles are pursuing the most sanctimonious and the most hypocritical policy in the whole of Europe .... They are lecturing us morally, criticizing us for our economic relations with Russia, and at the same time they are doing business with the Russians and buying oil indirectly, and running the Polish economy with it.”  Poland's Deputy Prime Minister Wladyslaw Bartoszewski angrily responded, “We do not do business with Russia, unlike Prime Minister Orbán, who is on the margins of international society – both in the European Union and NATO.”  Poland had imported Russian oil but ended doing so in December 2022.

 July 27 The American business news Website Business Insider reported that Russian troops' use of personal mobile phones jeopardizes military operations in Ukraine.  Independent of a central command structure, they are using unsecured phones to coordinate artillery and drone strikes and troop positioning along the battlefront.  Recognizing the problem, an amendment was introduced in the State Duma (the lower house of the Federal Assembly, the Russian parliament) that would authorize punishment for soldiers using personal phones in combat. "Wearing gadgets while serving in a special operation zone will be considered a gross disciplinary offense."  Personal phone calls can be and are easily intercepted by Ukrainian intelligence services.  Such interceptions better enable Ukraine to target Russian positions. Dan Rice, a former US military adviser to the Ukrainian high command and now President of the American University Kyiv, sees the dilemma as a long time problem for the Russians.  "Realistically, the Russian military not enforcing 'no cellphone use' is because they will receive tremendous backlash .... So they allow it, knowing use of unsecure civilian cellphones will result in more Russian deaths and mission failures." Mark Cancian, a defense expert and retired US Marine Corps colonel, said "the ideal thing to do is to use custom-designed — and highly secure — military systems for communications. But this is expensive, whereas everyone already has their mobile phone, making that an attractive option, even if it's risky." (quotations source: Business Insider)  (author's snide comment: "Gadgets!" Can't the Russian Duma come up with a more precise word? You know, like phone, cell, remote, device, thing, etc.) 

July 28   As part of Russia's annual Navy Day commemorations in St. Petersburg, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a stiff warning to the US and  NATO.  His remarks referenced a July 10  statement issued during the NATO summit in Washington that starting in 2026, the US  will begin sending long-range missiles to Germany.   Coming from the White House, the statement reads as follows: 

         The United States will begin episodic deployments of the long-range fires capabilities of its Multi-Domain Task Force in Germany in 2026, as part of planning for enduring stationing of these capabilities in the future.  When fully developed, these conventional long-range fires units will include SM-6, Tomahawk, and developmental hypersonic weapons, which have significantly longer range than current land-based fires in Europe.  Exercising these advanced capabilities will demonstrate the United States’ commitment to NATO and its contributions to European integrated deterrence.

Putin's July 28 speech warned the US that it risked triggering a Cold War-style missile crisis with the move. “The flight time to targets on our (Russia's) territory of such missiles, which in the future may be equipped with nuclear warheads, will be about 10 minutes.  "We will take mirror measures to deploy, taking into account the actions of the United States, its satellites in Europe and in other regions of the world.”  (author's comment: "Mirror measures" implies Russia's stationing long range missiles in a location near the US.  For those of us of a certain age, this should bring to mind the Soviets building intermediate and long-range missile bases in Cuba back in the fall of 1962.  Yes, the Cuban Missile Crisis. The missile crisis is referenced above. See March 14, 2023.)

July 30  The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that "The Russian Navy formations and units have begun conducting scheduled exercises in the operational zones of the Northern, Pacific and Baltic fleets, as well as in the Caspian Flotilla's area of ​​responsibility ....The main goal of the exercises is to check the actions of the military command bodies of the Navy at all levels, as well as the readiness of the crews of ships, naval aviation units and coastal troops of the Russian Navy to perform tasks as intended."  The exercises involve some 300 ships and submarines as well as 20,000 military and civilian personnel. The units will take part in "over 300 combat exercises," involving the use of anti-aircraft missiles, anti-submarine weapons and artillery against a "simulated enemy."  (quotations source: Newsweek) (author's comment: Notice that the announcement does not mention the Russian Black Sea fleet, which, because of vulnerability to Ukrainian attack, has been confined to bases in Sevastopol and Novorossiysk.)  

July 31 Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced that, despite Slovakia's objections, Ukraine does not intend to lift import sanctions against the Russian oil exporter Lukoil. Such sanctions, Shmyhal said, do not threaten the energy security of Slovakia or any other European country. 

"Ukraine has insisted and continues to insist on the need to phase out Russian oil as much as possible. Russia and energy security are incompatible. All countries understand this, and most are acting on it. The EU has allowed Slovakia and several other countries to use Russian oil on the condition that they actively develop alternative supply channels. Most are working on this," the Prime Minister said. "The sanctions imposed by the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine do not pose a threat to the energy security of Slovakia and Europe as a whole, which is why their removal is not up for discussion. We have full understanding from Brussels on this matter," (Brussels is the headquarters of the EU.)  Slovakia, he said, was a reliable partner of Ukraine, "from which we do not expect blackmail or threats, .... threatening Ukraine, which is defending itself from an aggressor, to allow a terrorist state (Russia) to continue earning its bloody profits is a dubious path." He added that "Ukraine remains a reliable transit country for all nations that value freedom and the rule of law, and is fully adhering to the EU Association Agreement."  He then announced that he and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico will meet in October to continue their "constructive, pragmatic dialog, "Thank you to my colleague, Mr. Fico, for the important constructive conversations. I am confident that we will find mutually beneficial solutions for Ukraine, Slovakia, and Europe." (quotations source: RBC Ukraine)

Aug 1  In a note to the EU, Hungarian Foreign Affairs Minister János Bóka announced that Hungary had ended its "peace mission" regarding Ukraine. (author’s comment: Orbán's free-wheeling trips to Moscow, Beijing, Kyiv, Washington (NATO meeting), and Mar-a-Lago all seemed to be about him rather than Hungary’s or Ukraine's interests.  Tensions between Hungary and the EU intensified with the controversy over Russian oil transit across Ukraine to Hungary and Slovakia. And his missions coincide with Hungary’s six-months of the rotating presidency of the EU Council, which Orbán presumes gives him greater “weight” in European affairs. In short, it’s awkward and troubling.)

Aug 1 In a surprising turn of events, the US and Russia (and Belarus) conducted an exchange of 26 prisoners, not prisoners of war but civilians who had been arrested on various charges of espionage.  It was the largest exchange since the end of the Cold War in 1991. The exchange was the result of secret negotiations stemming back to the Munich Security Conference in February.  There, US Vice President Kamala Harris met with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Golob. They had hoped to arrange an exchange that would include the release of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny.  (Navalny? See above Feb. 15, 2024.) 

Russia and Belarus released 16 detainees while the United States, Germany, Poland, Slovenia, and Norway collectively released eight adult detainees and two children.  The Americans released were Evan Gershkovich, Paul Whelan, and Alsu Kurmasheva.  Gershkovich is a reporter for The Wall Street Journal and Whelan is a former US Marine.  Charged with espionage, both had been sentenced to 16 years in prison.  Kurmasheva is a journalist for Radio Free Europe and had also been sentenced to a 16-year incarceration only a week before the announced release.  Among the ten Russians released were Artem Dultsev and his wife Anna, who had been detained in Slovenia. What's remarkable about their release is that their two children were allowed to join them.  On July 21 US President Biden telephoned Golob to secure pardons for and release of the Dultsev family.  The exchange took place at the Ankara Esenboğa Airport in Turkey. 

Aug 3  The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (GSUAF) announced the sinking of the Russian submarine Rostov-on-Don in a missile attack on the Russian naval base at Sevastopol in Crimea. In its statement the GSUAF added, "The destruction of the Rostov-on-Don proves once again that there is no safe place for the Russian fleet in the Ukrainian territorial waters of the Black Sea."  This was the second time the submarine was attacked. It was severely damaged in an aerial attack on September 13, 2023, and had not left the port since.  The GSUAF also claimed to have damaged a number of Russian S-400 anti-missile launch sites near Sevastopol. 

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Author's comment: I am a reader of The Week, a British news magazine with US and Australian editions. My subscription is to the US edition. In addition to news, The Week considers arts, leisure, and business. My focus is primarily on news, although I enjoy reading all sections, The news categories are: main stories, controversy of the week, the US at a glance, the world at a glance, people, briefing (various topics: the latest edition's briefing is on the dinosaur bone trade.), best US columns, best international columns, and talking points. While certainly selective in its content, the publication does seem relatively objective in its reporting.  

In the Aug. 2, 2024 edition is an article, "How They See Us: What Vance would do to Ukraine." J.D. Vance is a Republican Senator from Ohio who Donald Trump has selected as his Vice Presidential running mate.  The article draws on commentary from LB.ua  and Kyiv Independent (both Ukraine), Le Monde (France), Financial Times and Evening Standard (both British). So where does Senator Vance stand on Ukraine? In 2022 he stated, "I don't really care about Ukraine." Being partnered with Trump, Vance is seen as supporting a peace based on Ukraine's ceding the Donbas and southern provinces to Russia. The overall emphasis of the editorials is that Vance, like Trump, admires Putin and Hungary's Viktor Orbán. Vance has referred to Germany as "weak" and "idiotic" and that the new Labor government in Britain could make Britain "the first Islamist country in Europe" with nuclear weapons.  Oren Cass of the Financial Times, however, writes, that "the Atlantic alliances are vital but they must be reciprocal, and the Europeans must take responsibility for their own defense." Vance, Cass says, is "merely signaling to Ukraine and Europe what they already know - that Asia is where the greatest threat to US interests is manifesting, and where the allocation of scarce American resources must focus." 

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Aug 5  As Austria looks forward to parliamentary elections in September, there are concerns that the far-right Austrian Freedom Party, the FPO, may win a majority and get control of the government. (FPO? The party’s German name is the Freiheitliche Partei Österreich – Freedom Party Austria.) FPO leader Herbert Lickl has established a close relationship with Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Andrej Babiš, head of the Czech Republic’s right-wing ANO Party.  (ANO? From the Czech Akce nespokojených občanů- Action of Dissatisfied Citizens) "We're entering what I would like to call a new era in European politics," Kickl said when he, Orbán, and Babiš  announced in Vienna on June 30 the formation of the Patriots for Europe alliance of conservative parties.  The French National Rally Party joined the alliance in July, making it the third largest political group in the European Parliament.  Lickl, who has called European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen a "warmonger", said he and Orbán backed a "peaceful solution to the war between Ukraine and Russia" and pointed to Pope Francis' (June 10, 2024) remark that Kyiv should have the "courage of the white flag" to negotiate peace. (quotations source: Reuters) (author's comment:  Action of Dissatisfied Citizens: I think that pretty much sums up political party membership in democracies everywhere. The concern is that if Austria does swing to the right, it might join Hungary and Slovakia in opposition to EU support for Ukraine. Austria has long prided itself on its neutrality in world affairs, and an FPO government might reference "neutrality" as no support for Ukraine.)  In parliamentary elections on September 29 the FPO did win a majority. See Sept 29, 2024 below. 

Aug 5  The Russian Ministry of Defense reported Ukrainian military forces crossed the border and attacked several small communities in Russia's Kursk Province. Kurst lies along Ukraine's eastern and northeastern boundaries with Russia. Alexei Smirnov, acting governor for the region, said on Telegram that five civilians were killed and 20 others injured in "fierce clashes" but the situation is "controllable."  The defense ministry claimed that the attacking Ukrainian forces numbered up to 1000 troops with tanks and armored personnel carriers. Several Russian soldiers were captured.  The Russian TV channel Rybar said the incursion was not an isolated raid but had been "planned by the enemy for a long time" and would continue for "several days." The Ukrainian assault, Rybar stated, was "for the sake of filling the Ukrainian media feed with their 'successes' in battles on Russian territory, in order to overshadow the collapse of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' defense in other areas."  Smirnov said that civilian populations in affected areas are being evacuated amid warnings of future missile attacks.  (Some 27,000 civilians were reported evacuated.) A Ukrainian objective was achieved: capturing the town of Sudzha.  Sudzha is home to a key pipeline hub for supplying Russian gas to Europe. The Ukrainian incursion is the first "invasion" of Russia since World War Two. (quotations source: Newsweek) 

Aug 9 Ukraine acknowledged that its military movement into Russia's Kurst province was intended to strengthen Ukraine's bargaining position should there be future peace talks with Russia. It is also believed that the incursion will cause Russia to relocate forces from the fighting front in Donetsk. Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolya added that in addition to scaring Russians, the raid would weaken their support for Putin.  

Kurst's acting governor Alexei Smirnov claimed that debris from downed Ukrainian drones was found at an electricity transformer substation. There were power outages reported across the region. Electrical power for the region is generated by the Kurst Nuclear Power Plant in Kurchatov, some 40 miles north of Sudzha. The nearness of the power plant to this new battle front prompted Rafael Grossi, head of the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency, to urge both Russia and Ukraine to use "maximum restraint" to "avoid a nuclear accident" should fighting intensify. (quotation source, Associated Press)

Aug 11 In addition to concerns regarding the security of the Kurst Nuclear Power Plant, both Russia and Ukraine blamed the other for a fire at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in southern Ukraine. Ukraine claims that Russia started the fire. Russia stated that Ukrainian drone and shelling strikes on or near the plant were responsible.  The fire, in one of the plant's cooling towers, was extinguished and radiation levels were reported as normal. In 2022 Zaporizhzhya was a center of combat in the war's early months, giving rise to fears that destruction of the plant's reactors could release massive amounts of radiation.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated, "As long as Russian terrorists retain control of the nuclear power plant, the situation is not and cannot be normal. Since the first day of the seizure of Zaporizhzhia NPP, Russia has been using it solely to blackmail Ukraine, the whole of Europe and the world." (quotation source: CNN)

Aug 11  Continuing Ukraine's attacks on the border with Russia, Ukrainian troops crossed into Russia's Belgorod region.  The region's administrative head administrative head Andrey Miskov announced that 11,000 civilians have been evacuated from the Krasnoyarsk district.  Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova accused Ukraine of "intimidating the peaceful population of Russia" with its offensive in the Kursk and Belgorod regions. (author's snide comment: Hello, Maria! And the people of Ukraine don't feel intimidated by Russia? Maybe that war that you launched in 2022 is just a figment of our imagination.)

Aug  14  The Ukrainian military movement into Russia’s Kurst and Belogrod provinces continues. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine controls 74 Russian communities.  The amount of Russian territory under Ukrainian control, however, remains fluid as military operations continue.  On August 12 Alexei Smirnov, the Russian acting governor of Kurst, met with Russian President Putin. At that time, he reported that 28 “settlements” had been taken and that more than 120,000 people and been evacuated. On Aug. 13, Smirnov acknowledged that “the crisis has not yet been overcome.” (quotation source: Newsweek) When the Ukrainian forces occupied Sudzha, their capture of the railroad station enabled Ukrainian access to cyber information linking all parts of the Russian rail system. Such information could prove of great strategic value. 

Aug 16  The BBC reported that the Ukrainian forces in Kurst destroyed a strategically important bridge over the Seym River. The bridge had been a main conduit for moving Russian troops and supplies attempting to counterattack the advancing Ukrainians.  President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian gains in Kurst will provide an “exchange fund” in any future negotiations with Russia. The idea being that Russian territory held by Ukraine might be exchanged for Russian occupied parts of Ukraine. Posting on X, Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior aide to Zelenskyy, wrote that "Ukraine is not interested in occupying Russian territories,” but to compel Russia to negotiate "on our own terms …. In the Kursk region, we can clearly see how the military tool is being used objectively to persuade Russia to enter a fair negotiation process." The Ukrainian presence in Kurst, he said, has proven “effective means of coercion”. (quotation source: BBC) 

Yet, while Ukraine makes advances in Kurst, Russian forces continue to pressure Ukrainian defenses in the Donbas. On Aug. 16 Russia claimed the capture of the town of Serhiivka as part of its advance on the city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk. Pokrovsk has strategic value as it’s on a major road for supplying Ukrainian troops at the battlefront. Civilians in the city have been urged to evacuate.

Many of the Russian troops rushed to Kurst were battle-hardened units from the Donetsk battlefront, but most of the Russians who were captured were conscripted recruits with little training. The Ukrainian incursion was totally a surprise and coordinating strategies for repelling an invasion had not been developed or even anticipated.

In Crimea Russian anti-aircraft systems destroyed a nighttime Ukrainian missile attack on the Kerch Bridge. Russia claimed to have destroyed all 12 of the missiles, identified as US-made ATACAMs (Army TACtical Missile Systems). The Kerch bridge spans the strait between the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, connecting mainland Russia with Crimea, and is a crucial transportation conduit. It has been under Ukrainian attack in both 2022 and 2023. Damage to the bridge from those attacks was quickly repaired. 

Aug 17  Keeping it in the family, Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed his niece, Anna Tsivilova, as Deputy Minister of Defense. Her responsibilities will include overseeing social and housing support for military personnel and managing interactions with the state foundation "Defenders of the Fatherland," which supports participants in the ongoing conflict with Ukraine. Her prior experience had primarily been supplying medical supplies to hospitals, but she is part of the oligarchy through which Putin exercises his power. Her husband Sergey Tsivilov is Russia’s Minister of Energy. (The Russian organization Defenders of the Fatherland is similar in purpose to the Veterans of Foreign Wars in the US.)

Aug 17  The US blocked Britain’s approval of Ukraine’s using Storm Shadow missiles against targets in Russia.  The French-British built missiles are air-launched GPS guided cruise missiles with a 155 mile range. Ukraine’s use of the weapons is dependent upon the consent of Britain, France, the US, and a fourth NATO country. There was no definitive reason given for the US refusal other than the need for further discussions. A spokesperson for the Pentagon explained that the use of long-range missiles may escalate the crisis, something the US hopes to avoid, and suggested that the missiles are not essential for Ukraine to reclaim its territories. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy claims that if Ukraine had use of the Storm Shadows, there would have been no need for Ukraine to send troops into Kurst.

Aug 18 -20 Ukrainian drone attacks against a vital Russian oil storage depot in Proletarsk ignited numerous fires and caused severe damage to the facility. Proletarsk lies some 150 miles from the Ukrainian border in the Rostov province.   Russia initially reported having repelled the attack but later revised its statement admitting considerable damage to industrial warehouses and diesel reserve storage tanks in fires ranging across some 10,000 meters. According to Yaroslov Trofimov, a Ukrainian-born journalist and chief foreign affairs correspondent for the Wall Street Journal, the Proletarsk facility holds up to $200 million worth of fuel, based on a domestic wholesale price of around $500 per ton of diesel. While Ukraine is usually silent in taking responsibility for drone attacks, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Irnya Vereschuck on August 20 announced that "This is how, step by step, the war enters the enemy's territory. This is the Rostov region of the Russian Federation." (quotation source: Newsweek)

Aug 19 Accusing Ukraine of aggressive policies, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, on August 10, ordered the relocation of troops to the border with Ukraine. Ukraine claimed that among the Belarusian troops were mercenaries from the Wagner Group, an accusation Belarus denied.  By August 18, a third of Belarus’ armed forces were on the border. Lukashenko justified the action, saying that Ukraine had moved some 120,000 Ukrainian troops to the border. Ukraine denied having sent any troops to the border. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry warned “that in case of a violation of Ukraine’s state border by Belarus, our state will take all necessary measures to exercise the right to self-defense guaranteed by the UN Charter …. Consequently, all troop concentrations, military facilities, and supply routes in Belarus will become legitimate targets for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.” (quotation source: Al Jazeera)

Aug 21 Ukraine launched multiple drone attacks at targets in Russia, including Moscow. Russia's Ministry of Defense claimed to have intercepted and destroyed 45 drones, 11 of which were fired at Moscow, in what the city's mayor, Sergey Sobyanin, described as "one of the largest attempts to attack Moscow using drones of all time." Russia also claimed to have destroyed 23 drones over the Bryansk,  six over the Belogrod, three over the Kaluga, and two over the Kurst regions.  The Ukrainian land assault in Kurst continued with reports claiming movement towards the Seym River. It's speculated that if they reach the river, some 3000 Russian troops could be trapped. (quotation source: Daily Express US)

Aug 21 Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán announced implementation of a June decree that Hungary will no longer automatically provide shelter to some Ukrainian refugees who had fled the war.  In the village of Kocs a hundred of those being housed were immediately expelled from the shelters, leaving them homeless in the streets. Most of the refugees are women and children. There are an additional 3000 refugees facing future such expulsions. Under Orbán's decree, future refugee accommodations will be available only on a monthly basis to those from active combat zones and they must be able to provide address identification affirming their being from an area where fighting is happening.  Hungarian humanitarian organizations are acting to process and place the refugees but with no assistance from the government.  Andras Lederer of the Hungarian Helsinki Committee stated,"The fact is that in many of the families involved, the men are working somewhere. Nevertheless, the families cannot afford to rent a flat or simply can't find one." Lederer said that the recent decree and the situation of the evicted refugees is "a new low in Hungary's migration policy" and that the way the Hungarian state is behaving is a "disgrace and an outrage" because the people affected are not only from a country that is at war, but also have been given the status "in need of temporary protection .... So, it is in breach of Hungarian and international law." (quotations source: Deutshe Welle)

Aug 22 Lithuania announced the beginning of construction of a military base to house 4000 German troops near its border with Belarus.  Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė said: "One more step towards the security of Lithuania and its allies: today sending a message to our future generations we officially began development of the infrastructure military campus for the German brigade. We do not threaten, just making sure that, if anyone wants to test our strength, they will lose the desire to do so." The base will be used for tank storage and maintenance.  Lithuania's Ministry of Defense stated, "This unprecedented project strengthens regional security and reaffirms our commitment to the NATO collective defense," Lithuania's defense ministry said. The stationing of German soldiers in their country does not sit well with many Lithuanians, fearing that it makes them more vulnerable to Russian aggression. Russia sees the German base as provocation.  The project, known as the  "Roadmap Action Plan," was first announced in December 2023 (See Dec. 17, 2023 above.) (quotations source: Newsweek)

Aug 22  Ukrainian authorities reported attacking and sinking the Russian railway ferry Conro Trader in the Russian port at Kavkaz.  The ship was carrying 30 fuel tank cars. Russia identified the strike as a terrorist attack, claiming that the ferry was hit but not sunk.  Dmitry Pletenchuk, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Navy, justified the attack.  "This ferry is one of the vital links of Russian military logistics that provides for the occupying forces. First of all, [it carried] fuel and lubricants, but in addition, of course, it also transported weapons. Therefore, this is a completely legitimate target. And accordingly, this should reduce the potential of our enemy in those locations where they are conducting active military operations." Of the 19 persons aboard the ship,  two were reported missing. Kavkaz is on the Sea of Azov, east of the Kerch Strait which connects the Black Sea with the Sea of Azov. (quotations source: Reuters)

Aug 23  Anatoly Antonov, Russian Ambassador to the US, told the Russian news agency RIA that he expects the US to end all restrictions on the use of American weapons supplied to Ukraine.  "The current administration behaves like a person who extends one hand and holds a dagger behind their back with another one," Antonov said, describing Washington's recent comments about Kyiv not being allowed to use US weapons for strikes deep into Russian territory as "goading". The US currently prohibits Ukraine to use US-provided weapons, especially long-range missiles and drones, in attacks beyond Ukraine's borders.  Antonov said serious dialogue with the US would not be possible until the US ends its "hostile" policy towards Russia, which includes support for Ukraine and Ukraine and sanctions against Moscow.  When asked if Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov would meet with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken at the September meeting of the UN General Assembly, Antonov commented that it seemed unlikely.  (quotations source: Reuters)

Aug 24 was the 33rd anniversary of Ukraine's 1991 declaration of independence from the Soviet Union. The day was marked by ceremonies in Kyiv, a prisoner exchange, and continued drone and missile attacks.  In Kyiv ceremonies were primarily low-keyed commemorations of civilians and soldiers killed in the war. The events were attended by Polish President Andrez Duda who paid respects by visiting the Wall of Remembrance for the Fallen.  In another ceremony, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced the first combat use of a new domestically produced drone, the Palianytsia.  Without giving any details, he said, "the enemy was struck." In a news conference he commented on the new weapon saying, "I want to stress once more that our new weapon decisions, including Palianytsia, is our realistic way to act while some of our partners are unfortunately delaying decisions .... It will be very difficult for Russia, difficult to even pronounce what exactly has hit it."  (The drone's name comes from palianytsia, a type of Ukrainian bread that apparently is difficult for Russians to pronounce.)  (Quotations source: Reuters)

The prisoner exchange, again brokered by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), saw 115 Ukrainian POWs exchanged for 115 Russians. This was the 55th UAE brokered exchange since the war began. The Russians were recently captured in the Ukrainian advance into Kurst. The Ukrainian POWs had been captured in 2022 in the early months of the war, fifty of them taken during the siege of the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol.  Neither Russia nor Ukraine has revealed how many POWs each now has in captivity. In an Independence Day post, Zelenskyy wrote, “We remember each and every one. We are searching and doing our best to get everyone back." 

Both Russia and Ukraine launched drone, missile, aerial bombing, and artillery attacks against military and civilian targets in both countries. While reported deaths and injuries were low, the destruction caused by such attacks has long-ranging effects on morale and interrupt logistical operations. Attacks on Ukrainian targets took place in Donetsk, Kherson, Sumy, and even on Snake Island.  Ukrainian attacks on Russian targets occurred in the Voronezh, Belogrod, Bryansk, and Kurst regions. Both sides claimed success in their attacks and the thwarting of the enemy's attacks. Ukraine claimed to have destroyed 5000 tons of ammunition in an attack on a warehouse in the Voronezh region. 

Aug 26  In a massive aerial assault Russia launched 127 missiles and 109 drones, striking targets in 15 regions across Ukraine. The Russian Ministry of Defense announced, “This morning the armed forces of the Russian Federation launched a massive strike with long-range air and sea-based precision weapons, and with operational and tactical aviation and unmanned aerial vehicles against critical energy infrastructure facilities supporting the work of Ukraine’s military-industrial complex .... All designated targets were hit, resulting in disruption to the electricity supply and to the transport - by rail - of weapons and ammunition to the line of contact.”  Russia claimed the attacks struck two airfields with facilities housing arms and  F-16 jets provided by Ukraine's Western allies.  The attack included hits on electricity substations in nine Ukrainian regions and gas compressor stations in three regions. Ukrainian air defenses downed 102 of the incoming missiles and 99 of the drones. Despite the scope of the attack, Ukraine reported only seven deaths.  (quotation source: The Telegraph)

Commenting on the attack, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, “Like most previous Russian strikes, this one was just as vile, targeting critical civilian infrastructure,” Zelenskyy said, adding that most of the country was targeted — from the Kharkiv region and Kyiv to Odesa and the west.  Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said, “The energy infrastructure has once again become the target of Russian terrorists,” adding that the state-owned power grid operator, Ukrenergo, had been forced to implement emergency power cuts to stabilize the system. Power cuts also affected water pumping facilities, causing disruption to water distribution systems.  Shmyhal urged Ukraine’s allies to provide it with long-range weapons and permission to use them on targets inside Russia.  “In order to stop the barbaric shelling of Ukrainian cities, it is necessary to destroy the place from which the Russian missiles are launched .... We count on the support of our allies and will definitely make Russia pay.” (quotations source: Associated Press) 

Aug 26  Still smarting over the Ukrainian movement into and occupation of parts of Kurst, Russia dismissed the idea that ceasefire talks with Ukraine might be in the future. We saw earlier statements from Ukraine that the Russian territory now held by Ukraine might have exchange value and provide a basis for ceasefire negotiations. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated there had not been any negotiations and that "the topic of negotiations at the moment has pretty much lost its relevance." But, he asserted, "There will definitely be a response." (quotations source: Reuters)

Aug 27  Russia launched another aerial attack against targets across Ukraine, including Kyiv, Kryvyi Rih, and Zaporizhzhia.  The Ukrainian air force reported the attack numbered 10 missiles and 81Iranian-designed Shahed drones, of which most were intercepted and destroyed.  The Kryvyi Rih attack struck a hotel, killing four. Two persons were killed in Zaporizhzhia. In both cities others were injured. 

 Vyacheslav Gladkov, the Russian governor of Belgorod province, reported a Ukrainian artillery and drone attack prior to a new offensive of 500 ground troops across the provincial border.  The Russian state news agency TASS reported the incursion, saying that the situation remained “difficult but under control.” Readers are reminded that Kurst and Belgorod are Russian provinces on Ukraine's eastern borders. (quotation source: The Independent)

One of Ukraine’s aims with the incursion into the Kursk region was to force the Kremlin to divert troops from the front lines in Donetsk where they have been advancing on the strategic city of Pokrovsk.  That may be happening.  Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyy, Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine's armed forces, claimed that some 30,000 Russian troops are being repositioned from Donetsk to Kurst. Their relocation, it is hoped, may provide some relief for the Ukrainian defenders of Pokrovsk, which has been under Russian siege for several months. (See Aug 16 above.) Ukraine claims that its forces in Kurst now control some 500-square miles of territory within which are some 100 settlements . 

How is it that Ukraine can defend against Russian drone and missile attack?  The New York Times  reports that "Ukraine relies on Soviet-legacy interceptors, which it had in great numbers before the invasion in 2022, and an array of Western-provided air defenses. They include long-range Patriots; the midrange NASAMS; and short-range, shoulder-fired Stingers, intended to prevent missiles from slipping through to hit targets." (NASAMS? NASAMS stands for National - or Norwegian - Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System. Norwegian in origin in the early 1980s, the missiles can be fired from aircraft and mobile ground launchers. They are radar guided and have a range of 30 miles.

And the Ukrainian Air Force was also instrumental defending against the Russian attack.  Ukraine's first F-16 jet fighters were deployed on Aug 26 to intercept and destroy the wave of incoming Russian missile and drones.  This was the aircraft's first combat mission since delivery earlier in August.  In a press conference President Zelenskyy told reporters  The F-16s "had a very good result .... We thank our partners for providing us with the F-16s .... Of course, this is not enough. We don’t have many of them, and we still need to train pilots.” Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway have promised to provide Ukraine with more than 80 F-16s.  As the jets are manufactured in the US, any country with F-16s must have American consent to the planes being sent elsewhere.  The Ukrainian pilots had trained for only a year at the European F-16 Training Center in the Netherlands.  F-16 pilot training in other countries takes up to four years to achieve combat efficiency. (quotation source: New York Post)  Zelenskyy's "Very good result," unfortunately, saw fatal crash of one of the F-16s.  The plane's pilot, Colonel Oleksyy Mes, was killed.  It is not known if the jet was shot down or the crash was an accident.  Mes had reportedly shot down three missiles and a drone.  A well-known pilot going by the code name "Moonfish," Mes and a fellow pilot, code named "Juice," visited the US in Nov. 2022, meeting with congressmen and other officials to advocate for F-16s for Ukraine. In May 2023, the US approved allowing other nations with the F-16 to provide the jets to Ukraine.  On Aug 30 President Zelenskyy dismissed Air Force commander Lt. General Mykola Oleshchuk. The reason was not made public, but there have been unconfirmed allegations that Mes' plane may have been hit by a Ukrainian Patriot missile.  

Aug 28  Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has again issued a World War III warning to the US, saying that the West was "asking for trouble" by even considering Ukrainian requests to use supplied weapons to conduct strikes deep within Russian territory. "We have long been hearing these speculations about allowing the use of not only Storm Shadow, but also American long-range missiles. By the way, some anonymous source in Washington said that such work is being done, Ukraine's request is being viewed in a generally positive light .... This is blackmail, this is an attempt to pretend that the West wants to avoid excessive escalation. But in reality, this is deceit .... The West does not want to avoid escalation. The West…is asking for it. And it seems to me that this is already obvious to everyone .... We are now confirming once again that playing with fire—and they are like small children playing with matches—is a very dangerous thing for grown-up uncles and aunts who are entrusted with nuclear weapons in one or another Western country." 

Earlier on Aug 27, US Department of Defense Press Secretary Major General Patrick Ryder told reporters during a news conference that Washington's policy on Ukraine's use of American-supplied missiles had not changed.  "You've heard us say that the Ukrainians can use US security assistance to defend themselves from cross-border attacks, in other words counterfire," Ryder said. "But as it relates to long-range strike, deep strikes into Russia, our policy has not changed .... We're not seeking conflict with Russia. We are simply supporting a democratic nation who was invaded two and a half years ago and enabling them to protect themselves."  (quotations source: Newsweek)

Aug 28  Western-provided long-range weapons notwithstanding, Ukraine launched a drone attack on the Zenit oil depots in Russia's Kirov region. Russia reported destroying two drones but three others got through, causing fires at two oil depots.  No injuries were reported. The Kirov region is some 700 miles beyond Ukraine's border with Russia.      

Aug 30   Addressing the 2024 meeting of the Global Security Forum in Prague, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, without directly identifying countries by name, criticized the failure of certain states to support European Union efforts in support of Ukraine. "They blame the war not on the invader but on the invaded. Not on Putin's lust for power, but on Ukraine's thirst for freedom. So I want to ask them: would you ever blame the Hungarians for the Soviet invasion of 1956? Would you ever blame the Czechs for the Soviet oppression of 1968? The Kremlin's behavior was evil and atrocious back then, and it is evil and atrocious today." She also criticized Europe's pre-2022 "illusion" that greater economic integration with Russia would lead to more stability. "What was supposed to be the source of security, became the source of vulnerability .... If we want true peace, we must fundamentally rethink the foundation of Europe's security architecture .... While NATO must remain the center of our collective defense, we need a much stronger European pillar,” von der Leyen said, stressing that economic innovation and competitiveness are not only an essential part of Europe’s future prosperity, but they are also an essential and crucial part of its long-term security. Van der Leyen called for a systemic overhaul of Europe's defense, and the future appointment of a European Defense Commissioner.   (quotation sources: Kyiv Independent, Radio Prague International)  

(author's comment: Van der Leyen's remarks were aimed at Hungary and Slovakia as both countries, as she put it, "blame the war not on the invader Russia, but on the invaded" Ukraine).

Also addressing the assembly, Czech President Petr Pavel endorsed Van der Leyen's position on defense, support for Ukraine, and economic innovation. While Europe "remains a leader in may areas, it is falling behind the United States, some Asian countries and India in a number of technology sectors. It is time to recognize that our technological competence and development strongly shapes our geopolitical relevance and the security of our citizens," Mr. Pavel said, praising the creation of the new GeoTech Center, a platform aimed at fostering greater cooperation between governments and businesses in Europe, the US and democratic countries the world over. 

Commenting on Ukraine, Pavel said that Ukraine and its allies are facing "a long conflict with an uncertain outcome ....The time can, however, work in Ukraine's and our favor, but only if we pull ourselves together and learn lessons of the past two and a half years .... At this point, we are dealing with Russia that still believes it has no reason to change its course of action." Calling for long-term, predictable support, stronger sanctions enforcement, and outreach to third countries to prevent them from helping Moscow evade sanctions. "Russia must grow to an understanding that persisting in this misguided war will no longer be in their interest .... The Ukrainians are doing more than their part to drive this message home. They pay the highest price – their lives. Whatever we do to support them will never bear the same price tag." (quotation source: Radio Prague International)

What is Globsec?  In short, Globsec defies simple explanation.  Founded in 2005, it is the Global Security Forum, a non-partisan, non-governmental organization based in Bratislava, Slovakia. Its annual security forum usually meets in Bratislava, but in 2024, it's meeting in Prague, Aug 30 to Sept 1. Primarily a think-tank, it issues policy papers and analyses on international politics and security issues. In other words, it's a forum for discussion of global issues. This year's meeting sees some 1500 attendees from over 70 countries.  (author's snarky comment: Isn't it a bit ironic that an organization based on international security issues is headquartered in Slovakia, a country that has not supported the security of Ukraine in its war against Russia? )

Sept 1 Following up on an earlier attack on Aug 30, Russia again launched ballistic and guided missile strikes on targets in Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city.  Both attacks were aimed at civilian infrastructure. In the Aug 30 attack a strike on a 12-story residential building killed six and injured another 59.  The Sept 1 attack struck a post office, sports complex, and shopping center, wounding 41. 

Sept 1 Responding to remarks by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov that Russia intends to change its doctrine on the use of nuclear weapons, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning reminded Russia that "China has repeatedly reiterated that nuclear weapons cannot be used or that a nuclear war cannot be fought." Ryabkov told the Russian news agency TASS that the Russian position was based on escalation by Western "adversaries" of the Ukraine conflict.  Mao urged that "Under the current circumstances, all parties should remain calm and exercise restraint, and jointly promote de-escalation and reduce strategic risks through dialogue and consultation."  She also reminded Ryabkov that in January 2022 China, France, Russia, Britain, and the US, as signatories of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, issued a joint statement affirming "that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought."  The statement added that the use of nuclear weapons would have far-reaching consequences, and therefore they "should serve defensive purposes, deter aggression, and prevent war."  According to the British news service Reuters, "Russia's existing 2020 nuclear doctrine stipulates that it may employ its nuclear arsenal in the event of a nuclear attack by an enemy or a conventional attack that threatens the existence of the state."  Ryabkov did not elaborate on when any updated nuclear doctrine would be ready. (quotations source: Newsweek)

Sept 2   In a devastating attack, a Russian missile strike in Poltava killed 47 people and injured at least 206 others. Targeted were a military school and hospital.  Appealing to the outside world, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy  issued a statement: “We say again and again to everyone in the world who has the power to stop this terror: air defense systems and missiles are needed in Ukraine, not somewhere in a warehouse .... Long-range strikes that can protect against Russian terror are needed now, not later. Every day of delay is, unfortunately, the death of people,” he added.  Ukrainian first lady Olena Zelenska announced the latest death toll in an afternoon update, adding: “This is a terrible tragedy for the whole of Ukraine. Russia is taking away our most valuable asset – our lives. We will never forget this.” Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said, “The only way to intercept them was to have the Patriot system or a SAMP/T air defense system because they are the only ones capable of intercepting ballistic missiles.”  (quotations source: CNN) 

(author's comment: Readers should be aware that the statistics re dead and injured victims of attacks and the numbers of missiles and drones in an attack or destroyed in an attack may differ depending upon the sources and the times the information was acquired. This has been the case since I began reporting on this war and will continue to be so in the future.)

Sept 2  Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski stated that Poland and other NATO allies have the right to intercept and destroy Russian missiles in Ukraine's airspace.  “Membership in NATO does not trump each country’s responsibility for the protection of its own airspace — it’s our own constitutional duty... I’m personally of the view that, when hostile missiles are on course of entering our airspace, it would be legitimate self-defense [to strike them] because once they do cross into our airspace, the risk of debris injuring someone is significant,” he added.  Amid concerns that such actions could lead to a NATO war with Russia, Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Paweł Wroński clarified that Sikorski’s statement on the need to intercept Russian missiles over Ukraine was his personal opinion, not the government’s position.  Any such action taken by Poland would be done with the approval of NATO. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, however, said NATO would not approve that. "NATO will support Ukraine," Stoltenberg said, but "NATO's policy is unchanged." (quotations source: RBC Ukraine)

Sept 3  Newsweek reported that the US is considering sending long-range air-launched cruise missiles to Ukraine.  The weapons are identified as JASSMs, Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles. There are two versions of the missile, one having a 330-mile range, the other 575 miles.  Both are fired from aircraft and two can be mounted on an F-16.  Most of the planes in the Ukrainian Air Force are Soviet-era fighter jets, but it is expected that adjustments can be made to accommodate JASSMs.  The JASSMs would enable Ukraine to attack targets well inside Russia.  "Washington has been reluctant to supply Ukraine with weapons that can strike targets deep inside Russian territory for fear of escalating the conflict. The delivery of JASSMs would add to pressure on the U.S. to drop restrictions on the use of its weaponry in the conflict, an unnamed congressional staffer told Reuters." (quotation sources: Newsweek and Reuters) 

Sept 3 - 4  On his way to the annual Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Russian President Vladimir Putin stopped in Ulan Bator, Mongolia, to meet with Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh.  Mongolia is dependent upon Russia for 95% of its oil and gas supplies and 20% of its electricity.  It is also on the route of a proposed gas pipeline, known as the Power of Siberia 2, that would connect Mongolia with Russia and China.  The two leaders signed agreements regarding energy and petroleum product supplies, the reconstruction of a power plant, and environmental protection. While the meeting was important for what it accomplished, there was greater importance in what did not happen.  Mongolia did not arrest Putin.  

In March 2023 the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued a warrant for Putin's arrest, charging him with authorizing the forcible deportation of Ukrainian children. This made him subject to arrest on setting foot in any ICC member country. Mongolia is a member of the ICC.  (The ICC? See April 26, 2022 above.)   In Moscow Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov commented, "This whole story with the ICC ... cannot and will not be a limitation in the development of Russia's relations with partner states that are interested in developing bilateral relations and covering international contacts ....The global majority has a much broader vision of the prospects for international cooperation than the blinkers of the ICC." (quotation source: CNBC) (author's comment: Machiavelli was right. Regardless of their stated positions on moral standards, states will do whatever is seen in their best interests.) 

Sept 5  In the early hours of the morning, Belarus scrambled units of its air force to intercept and shoot down two Shahed attack drones that had entered its airspace. Belarusian authorities did not comment on whether the drones came from Russia or Ukraine. Shaheds are Iranian-made drones that Russia uses to attack Ukraine. It is not known if Ukraine has Shaheds. The drones were shot down in the Gomel oblast (region) of southeastern Belarus.  Gomel lies along the border with Ukraine. Russian drones and missiles targeted for Ukraine could cross that region. 

It was mentioned above that Putin was attending the annual Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok. While that conference focuses on the economic development primarily of East Asian countries, other global representatives with interests in East Asia attend. Such was the case of Serbia that took advantage of the conference to strengthen its ties to Putin.  Serbia's Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vulin met with Putin and essentially pledged Serbia's allegiance to Russia.  "Serbia is not only a strategic partner of Russia; Serbia is also Russia's ally," Vulin said. "This is why pressure on us by the West is huge."  Where's the irony here?  While proclaiming its affinity with Russia, Serbia is seeking European Union membership.  Annually, 63% of Serbia's trade is with the EU, but Serbia relies heavily on Russia for energy supplies, particularly natural gas. Serbia's reaffirmed relationship with Russia came only days after making lucrative trade deals with France and Germany. French President Emmanuel Macron had recently visited Belgrade and agreed to sell Serbia new fighter jets. Before that, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz had also gone to Belgrade for the signing of a tentative EU agreement on raw materials vital for green energy development. Both agreements seemed to be moving Serbia out of the Russian orbit. The US imposed sanctions on Vulin in July, accusing him of "involvement in illegal arms shipments, drug trafficking, and misuse of public office to further Russia's influence in the region."  In their meeting, Putin expressed optimism about Serbia's role in strengthening economic cooperation between the two countries—most prominently in Russia's Far East, a region the Kremlin is eager to develop. (quotation source: Newsweek)

Sept 5  The war, of course, continued with an overnight Russian aerial assault across Ukraine by some 78 Shahed drones and one Iskander-M ballistic missile fired from launch areas in Kurst and Crimea.  Targeted were Kyiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Kherson, Poltava, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, Zaporizhzhia, and the Kherson regions. Ukrainian air defenses claimed 75 of the drones were destroyed and three returned to Russia. There was no immediate report of damages or casualties.  

Sept 5  On Aug 31 NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told the German newspaper Welt am Sonntag that Ukraine's incursion into Russia’s Kurst province was an act of self-defense against Russian aggression, and that Russian targets in the border regions were legitimate targets for Ukrainian attacks.  "Russia has been waging an unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine for more than 900 days and has since carried out numerous attacks from the Kursk region across the border against Ukraine  .... The Russian soldiers, tanks and bases are legitimate targets under international law." Ukraine's right to defend itself from Russian attacks "does not stop at the border." 

Maria Zakharova, director of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s  press department, responded on Sept 4. "We would like to warn such irresponsible politicians in the EU, NATO, and overseas that in the event of corresponding aggressive steps by the Kiev regime, Russia's response will follow immediately ...and will be extremely painful," (author’s comment: Notice that Zakharova calls the Ukrainian capital by its Russian name, “Kiev.” Kiev officially became Kyiv in 1995 as part of Ukraine’s efforts to “de-Russify” its culture in asserting its independence from centuries of Russian domination.)

On Sept 5, the European Union's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell added that Ukraine had shown "a lot of strategic audacity" by launching attacks inside the Russian territory, and that the Kursk operation had "dealt a blow to Putin's narrative about this war."   Borrell also called on Ukraine's allies to lift restrictions on the use of weapons provided to Ukraine and allow the use those weapons in strikes against targets inside Russian territory.  In making Russia's response, Zakharova charged that Borrell's remarks amounted to the EU "allowing terrorism against Russia .... EU politicians refuse to think not only sensibly and far-sightedly, but also in line with their own principles .... They lose their sense of reality and do not think at all about the risks of further dangerous escalation of the conflict, even in the context of their own interests." (quotations source: Newsweek)

Sept 10  Russia claimed to have intercepted and destroyed 144 Ukraine-launched drones in an overnight attack targeting locations in the Moscow area and eight other regions.   A residential area of the city was struck in the attack.  Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that the attack was another reminder of the real nature of Ukraine's political leadership. "There is no way that nighttime strikes on residential neighborhoods can be associated with military action, .... The Kyiv regime continues to demonstrate its nature. They are our enemies and we must continue the special military operation to protect ourselves from such actions."  Ukraine announced that the attack was in response to an earlier Russian attack in which 38 of 46 drones were destroyed. Authorities in both Moscow and Kyiv reported few or no civilian casualties as a result of the attacks. (quotations source: Reuters)

Sept 10  Russia began "Ocean-24," six days of naval and air training exercises taking place on the Pacific and Arctic Oceans and the Baltic, Caspian, and Mediterranean seas.  The maneuvers involve some 90,000 troops, over 400 warships, submarines, and support ships as well as 120 planes and helicopters. Units of the Chinese Navy will be part of the Pacific operations.  Referencing China, Russian President Vladimir Putin commented, "We pay special attention to strengthening military cooperation with friendly states. Today, in the context of growing geopolitical tensions in the world, this is especially important."  Putin accused the United States of "trying to maintain its global military and political dominance at any cost," seeking "to inflict a strategic defeat" on Russia in its war with Ukraine and to "break the established security architecture and balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region." (quotations source: Associated Press)

Sept 10 In a nationally televised debate with Democratic Presidential candidate Kamala Harris, Republican candidate Donald Trump made reference to Hungarian President Viktor Orbán.  “Let me just say about world leaders, Viktor Orbán, one of the most respected men, they call him a strong man. He's a tough person. Smart prime minister of Hungary. They said, Why is the whole world blowing up?”  “He (Orbán) said, ‘Because you need Trump back as president. They were afraid of him. China was afraid.’ And I don't like to use the word afraid, but I'm just quoting him. 'China was afraid of him. North Korea was afraid of him.' Look at what's going on with North Korea, by the way. He said 'Russia was afraid of him,' ” he added. (Readers are reminded that on July 12 while Orbán was in the US for the NATO summit, he made trip to Florida to meet with Trump. See July 2 above.) Harris asserted, “He's trying to, again, divide and distract from the reality, which is it is very well known that Donald Trump is weak and wrong on national security and foreign policy, .... It is well known that he admires dictators, wants to be a dictator on day one, according to himself. It is well known that he said of Putin that he can do whatever the hell he wants and go into Ukraine.” (quotations source: NPR) 

Sept 11 Russia claims to have launched a major counteroffensive to retake those areas in Kurst occupied by Ukrainian forces in August. Russian Major General Apti Alaudinov, who commands special forces fighting in Kursk, said that Russian troops took back control of about 10 settlements."Our situation is good ... our units have gone on the offensive. Yesterday and by today, in total, about 10 settlements of the Kursk region were liberated." In comments on the Russian news agency RIA Novosti, Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Ukrainian forces were "now being steadily squeezed out from" Kursk, and "will be squeezed out completely, there can be no doubt about it." (quotations source: CNBC) 

Sept 12 - 13    Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that any decision by the US or its NATO allies to allow Ukraine to use Western-supplied long-range missiles to hit targets deep inside Russia would be viewed as NATO's direct participation in the war, which he said would significantly change "the very nature of the conflict."  The programmed targeting of the missiles can be entered only by NATO personnel, not by Ukrainians, Putin charged. Therefore any attack using these missiles means NATO and the US are attacking Russia.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been seeking permission from both the US and Britain to use ATACAMs (US) and Storm Shadows (Br) to strike targets in Russia.  

Knowing that US President Biden and British Prime Minister Starmer would be meeting on Sept 13, Putin warned, If the US and Britain approve the move, it "will mean that NATO countries ... are fighting Russia .... And if this is so, then, bearing in mind the change in the very essence of this conflict, we will make appropriate decisions based on the threats that will be created for us."  

Sept 13   When asked whether the Kremlin had seen a reaction among Western powers to Putin's statement, spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said "the statement that Putin made yesterday is very important. It is extremely clear, unambiguous and does not allow for any double readings. And we have no doubt that this statement has reached its addressees." (quotations source: CBS News) (author's comment: Considering how dire all this is, It seems fitting that the date is Friday the 13th.)

Sept 13  As part of its "Ocean-24" naval exercises (See Sept.10 above.), Russia has dispatched two naval missile corvettes into Lake Ladoga. Ladoga (about the same size as Lake Ontario) is northeast of St. Petersburg and is part of the White Sea to Baltic canal system.  The strategic purpose is to strengthen Russia's western reaches along its borders with Scandinavia. (Readers are reminded that all the Scandinavian countries are members of NATO.)  The ships are armed with Kalibr cruise missiles that have ranges up to 1600 miles.  The Finnish newspaper "Ilta-Sanomat" notes that "such equipment on Lake Ladoga puts Finland in Russia's crosshairs." (corvettes? See May 19 above.) The ships are believed to continue on to and across Lake Onega and then on the canal to the White Sea. (author's comment:  Lakes Ladoga and Onega are the two largest lakes in Europe, Ladoga being the bigger of the the two. Good Jeopardy question/answer, right?)

 Sept 14   Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chair of the Russian Security Council, said Kyiv could be reduced to a "giant melted spot" if Western nations allow Ukraine to use Western-made long-range weapons to attack targets in Russia. Medvedev, a former Russian President, made the comments in a lengthy post on his Telegram social media channel.  On Sept 3 US President Biden met with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Washington, and both reaffirmed their support for Ukraine but did not reveal any information on allowing Ukraine to use US and British long-range weapons to attack Russia.  In his Telegram post Medvedev also said that Russia already has "formal" grounds to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine after the latter sent troops into Russia's Kursk region. But he also admitted that "a nuclear conflict is really not needed by anyone. It is obvious that a nuclear response is an extremely difficult decision with irreversible consequences."

Following a Sept. 14 meeting with former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Kyiv, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy thanked the US for its support and assistance, "but we need permission to use long-range weapons. I hope that the US political community understands this clearly and that the relevant decision will be made."  (quotations source: UPI)

 Sept. 15  Ukrainian special forces from the “Khimik” unit of the Main Intelligence Directorate carried out an operation against a Russian military base near Aleppo, Syria. This base was reportedly involved in the production and testing of strike drones, as well as the manufacturing of camouflaged improvised explosive devices (IEDs). Khimik, meaning "Chemist", is a highly specialized force, trained in conducting high-risk operations, often involving chemical and unconventional warfare tactics.  Russia is providing assistance to the Syrian government in its conflict with rebel groups.  Khimik has worked closely with Syrian rebels, enhancing their operational effectiveness and extending their reach. This collaboration has allowed them to target Russian forces and military equipment more effectively. (Why are Russians in Syria? Russia has supported the administration of President Bashar al-Assad of Syria since 2011. The Assad regime is highly oppressive and has been long engaged in a civil war with opposing militant groups.  Seeing an opportunity to get a foothold in the Middle East, Russia supports Assad. In 2015 Putin sent Russian troops to Syria to bolster Assad's forces against the rebels.) 

Sept. 15  The BBC reported that Russia and Ukraine made another prisoner of war exchange. In this one 103 captured Russians were exchanged for 103 Ukrainians. The Russians had been captured during the Ukrainian incursion into Russia's Kurst Province.  The Ukrainians, a mix of soldiers, border guards, and police, were taken in several sites across Ukraine. As has been the practice in such exchanges, the Russians were taken to Belarus for "necessary psychological and medical assistance" before being reunited with their families.  As have other exchanges, this was brokered by the United Arab Emirates. (quotation source: BBC)

While we have seen Russia's threats regarding any future use of Western long-range weapons, Ukraine's defenses have been augmented by the introduction of 18 new "Bohdana" mobile howitzers. The mobile cannons were made with assistance from Denmark, the first EU country to assist in financing the manufacture of Ukraine's military equipment. The new weapon was announced by Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen in Kyiv on Sept.14.  The Bodhana is the first piece of Ukrainian-made artillery using the 155 mm NATO-standard ammunition.  It has a five-person crew, can drive at 50 mph, and can fire at targets 35 miles away.  The Bohdana (meaning "God's gift) is designed to be driven into position, rapidly fire multiple rounds, and retreat before the enemy has time to respond. The Ukrainian news service RBC Ukraine reported that Poulsen said it is much cheaper to manufacture weapons in Ukraine than to manufacture or buy them in the West.

Sept. 16 The online news service Moscow Times posited this question. Why does Ukraine still allow the transit of Russian oil and gas via the Druzhba pipeline through Ukraine to markets in Europe? Russia nets some $12 billion in exporting the fuels, while Ukraine receives some $230 million in return for transit fees.  Ukraine had earlier announced that it would close down the pipeline on January 1, 2025, but that has been since been cancelled.  Continuing the fuel transit "allows pro-Russian lobbies in Austria and Slovakia – who still purchase Russian oil and gas – to slow down European military support to Ukraine. European leaders like Slovakia's Robert Fico and Hungary's Viktor Orbán use concerns over the economic impact on EU member states to justify their blatantly anti-Ukrainian stance on aid to Kyiv." (quotation source: Moscow Times)  (author's reminder: The Moscow Times is an independent newspaper that publishes in multiple languages.  It was a print publication from 1992 to 2017 when, under strict Russian censorship, it relocated its base from Moscow to Amsterdam.  It is today an online publication.  On Nov. 18, 2023 Russia officially designated the paper's publishers as “foreign agents.”)

Sept. 16   The British news service Reuters reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a decree increasing the Russian army by 189,000 troops. This would raise the total of active duty army personnel to 1.5 million, making the Russian army the second largest in the world after China's. 

Sept.18  As is customary with such attacks, Ukraine acknowledged but did not outright claim responsibility for the overnight destruction of a major ammunition depot in Russia's Tver region.  "We do not comment on what is happening in Russia," asserted the Ukrainian defense ministry.  What did happen was a drone attack on the Main Missile and Artillery Directorate arsenal in Toropets, about 240 miles west of Moscow.  Newsweek reported that "Ukrainian internal affairs advisor Anton Gerashchenko posted on X that there were reports the explosion was the equivalent of between 1.3 and 1.8 kilotons of TNT, with a blast wave spreading up to 200 miles." The depot in Tver reportedly contained North Korean KN23 ballistic missiles, missiles for Grad multiple rocket launcher systems, and S-300 air defense systems, as well as Iskander ballistic missiles. The Russian government newspaper Rossiskaya Gazeta reported that the arsenal had been built in 2015 as part of a program to improve the storage system for missiles, ammunition and explosives.  "Former Deputy Defense Minister Dmitry Bulgakov had said in 2018 that the facility could withstand missiles and even a small nuclear attack. Tver Governor Igor Rudenya said on Telegram that a fire had broken out in Toropets caused by falling drone debris but claimed the situation was 'under control.' He later announced an evacuation of part of the town's population." (quotations source: Newsweek)

Sept. 18  In a rebuke to Russian President Putin, Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced that Russia's Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) "doesn't ensure its security obligations towards Armenia" and "creates threats for Armenia's security and Armenia's future existence, sovereignty and statehood."   Russia, Pashinyan asserts, has refused to support Armenia in its conflict with neighboring Azerbaijan. Both countries claim sovereignty over the disputed border region of Nagorno-Karabakh. In February Armenia suspended its membership in CSTO. (quotation source: Business Insider)  The CSTO? See Nov. 18, 2023.

Sept. 19   The European Parliament (the assembly of the European Union) passed a resolution calling for EU members to support Ukraine's appeal to use "Western weapons systems against legitimate military targets in Russia."  It also called for EU states to fulfil previous promises of further deliveries of weapons, air defense systems and ammunition, "including TAURUS missiles." TAURUS are German and Swedish-made cruise missiles with a range over 300 miles.  The Russian response came from Vyacheslav Volodin in a post on Telegram. "The flight time of the Sarmat missile to Strasbourg is 3 minutes 20 seconds." (Strasbourg is on the border of France and Germany, an easy target for the Sarmat's 6000-11,000 mile range.)  Volodin is Chairman of the Russian State Duma (lower house of the Russian Parliament).  Echoing the Kremlin's earlier warnings, Volodin wrote, "If something like this happens, Russia will give a tough response using more powerful weapons ....What the European Parliament is calling for leads to a world war using nuclear weapons." (quotation source: Newsweek)  

Sept.  20   Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov walked back the Sept 19 threats made by Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin, telling journalists from Sky News Arabia that Russia does not seek nuclear war.  The Russian news service TASS also referred to Volodin's remarks as "irresponsible and inappropriate." "We talk about red lines, expecting that our assessments, statements will be heard by intelligent, decision-making people,” Lavrov said. “It is not serious to say that if tomorrow you do not do what I demand, we will press the ‘red button.’ ” (author's comment: By "intelligent, decision-making people," Lavrov means the Western powers aiding Ukraine and their present refusal to allow Ukrainian use of long-range weapons to attack Russia.) 

Sept. 21 Ukraine launched a major drone attack against Russian weapons depots in Toropets, Tikhoretsk, and Crimea. The Toropets depots had already been attacked on Sept. 18.  Ukraine claimed that missiles from North Korea were among the arms destroyed in the raid.  Russia claims that any destruction on the ground was caused by debris falling from destroyed Ukrainian drones and not by direct strikes. (Where are these places? In the Tver region of Russia, Toropets is some 250 miles west of Moscow. Tikhoretsk is in the Krasnodar region some 105 miles south of Rostov-on-Don.)  Russia launched drone and missile attacks against Kryvyi Rih (Zelenskyy's hometown) and Kharkiv.  Total reported civilian casualties were two deaths and 15 injured.  

Sept 22   Newsweek reported on both Ukrainian and Russian combat casualties since the start of the war in 2022.  Getting an accurate number of troop losses is difficult as both sides do not release official estimates. Russia has not updated its death toll since September 2022 when it said just under 6,000 of its soldiers had been killed. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claims Russia has lost approximately 642,420 military personnel since the start of the war.  Citing unnamed Western intelligence estimates, the Wall Street Journal, recently reported that 200,000 Russian troops had been killed and 600,000 wounded, while Ukrainian losses stood at 80,000 killed and 400,000 wounded. (author’s comment: Regardless of the counts, all of those people were alive and uninjured the day before the war began.)

Sept 22.  The Associated Press reported that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy renewed his appeals to the US to provide and enable Ukraine to use long-range missiles in its attacks on Russia.  He will attend the meeting of the UN General Assembly in New York on Sept. 24. Arrangements are such that he will meet with US President Joseph Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris in Washington. He also plans to meet with Donald Trump.  

On flying to the US, Zelenskyy began his visit by inspecting the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant ammunition plant in Scranton, PA.  The plant builds 155-millimeter howitzer shells, the primary ammunition for Ukrainian artillery. Zelenskyy was accompanied by PA Governor Josh Shapiro, US Senator Bob Casey (D-Pa.), US Representative Matt Cartwright (D-8th District), Scranton Mayor Paige G. Cognetti, and other local officials.  “It is in places like this where you can truly feel that the democratic world can prevail,” Zelenskyy said. “Thanks to people like these – in Ukraine, in America, and in all partner countries – who work tirelessly to ensure that life is protected.” During the visit, PA Governor Shapiro signed an agreement with the governor of the southeastern Ukrainian region Zaporizhzhia, “that will strengthen both states and foster collaboration for years to come,” he said. “Pennsylvania looks forward to building a close relationship with Zaporizhzhia as we continue to stand on the side of freedom.” Scranton is also the hometown of US President Biden. (quotations source: Yahoo/news)

(author's comment: I include this in my narrative because I am from that region of northeastern Pennsylvania.  As an infant in 1945 I actually lived in Scranton for a brief time with my mom at my grandfather's apartment while my dad was still overseas in the army.  Dad came back from the war in 1946, and we relocated to Philadelphia while he was at the University of Pennsylvania Law School.  He started his law practice in Wilkes-Barre in 1948. Being only 20 miles apart, Scranton and Wilkes-Barre are sort of regional rivals. They do put that rivalry aside in support of the Scranton-Wilkes-Barre Railriders, a Triple A professional baseball team.) 

Of course, there was political reaction. On Sept. 25 Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, demanded that Ukraine recall its ambassador to the US, Oksana Markarova. Markarova, Johnson stated, arranged the Zelenskyy visit to the Scranton ammunition plant, but did not include any members of the Republican Party.  Johnson is a Republican, representing Louisiana in the House.  "The tour," he said, "was clearly a partisan campaign event designed to help Democrats and is clearly election interference. This shortsighted and intentionally political move has caused Republicans to lose trust in Ambassador Markarova’s ability to fairly and effectively serve as a diplomat in this country. She should be removed from her post immediately." (quotation source: Essanews.com)

Sept 24  Using US-made made Patriot and British-made S-200 missile systems, Ukraine reported the destruction of a Russian A-50 Beriev surveillance aircraft in flight.  Using a radar rotodome mounted on the plane’s fuselage, the A-50 can detect, observe, and track all air objects within a radius of 400 miles. The A-50 can also detect ground targets, but the range is limited to 186 miles. Ukraine had previously downed an A-50 in January 2024. That plane was accompamied by an Ilyushin Il-22 airborne command aircraft which was also destroyed.  The A-50 is a large aircraft with a crew of 15 personnel. Its  maximum speed is 560 mph with a flight range of 4700 miles. There was no public comment from Russia. 

In New York City the United Nations General Assembly convenened its 79th annual meeting with speeches by numerous heads of state, among them US President Joseph Biden. Remarking on his decision not to run for reelection, Biden appealed to the assembled leaders to put their people above their personal ambitions.  “My fellow leaders, let us never forget some things are more important than staying in power. It’s your people that matter the most,” he said. "Never forget, we are here to serve the people, not the other way around. Because the future, the future, will be won by those who unleash the full potential of their people to breathe free, to think freely, to innovate, to educate, to live and love openly without fear.” (quotation source: CNN) 

That democracy is under threat was among the warnings challenging the UN's future as presented in the opening address by UN Secretary-General Antonio Gutteres.  “We can’t go on like this." The world is in “an era of epic transformation” facing challenges never seen before, with geopolitical divisions deepening, the planet heating and wars raging in the Middle East, Ukraine, Sudan and elsewhere with no clue how they will end. “We are edging towards the unimaginable – a powder keg that risks engulfing the world.”  Guterres called the situation in Gaza “a nonstop nightmare that threatens to take the entire region with it.” He said escalating air attacks acrorss the Israel-Lebanon border have put Lebanon “at the brink.”  In Ukraine, he said, there is no sign of an end to the war that followed Russia’s February 2022 invasion. In Sudan, he said, “a brutal power struggle has unleashing horrific violence — including widespread rape and sexual assaults” and “a humanitarian catastrophe is unfolding as famine spreads.” (quotations source: Associated Press) 

Prior to the General Assembly meeting, representatives of the UN’s 193 member states met to draft a “Pact for the Future.”  Described as a master plan for tackling challenges that lie ahead for humanity, the Pact presents 56 "actions" to meet those challenges.

author’s comment: To summarize the Pact here would take pages of text and there is already too much here for readers, if any, to wade through. I suggest that readers consult online news and analysis for some sense of the issues. The greatest challenge, as I see it, is reform of the UN Security Council. It is unchanged since 1945. The world today and its issues are far more complex than in 1945.  The five permanent members - US, Russia, China, Britain, and France – do not represent the billions who live in Africa and Latin America – and each has the power to veto any action wanted by the others. So if Russia doesn’t like a Security Council action proposed by the US and wanted by the three others, it can veto it. That’s no way to move ahead. But wouldn’t a UN reform to do away with the veto or allow Nigeria to become a permanent member be vetoed by one of the original five? We’d have to wait and see, but, most likely, yes. end of author's comment

Sept. 24  Czech President Petr Pavel expressed the need for international support for Ukraine, but indicated that neither Ukraine nor Russia can win the war militarily. Peace can come only through an agreement that Ukraine accept the reality of Russia having “temporary” control of the occupied Donbas regions and Crimea. Pavel said Ukraine’s joining NATO must be part of any future peace.

Sept. 24  There is no way the war in Ukraine can be separated from American politics. Speaking in Savannah, Georgia, Republican candidate Donald Trump mocked President Biden's continued commitment to provide logistical and military assistance to Ukraine. "Biden says, 'We will not leave until we win.' Trump said, lowering his voice to mimic the Democratic president. 'What happens if they (the Russians) win? That’s what they do, is they fight wars. As somebody told me the other day, they beat Hitler, they beat Napoleon. That’s what they do. They fight. And it’s not pleasant.' ” The Russians win wars, Trump was saying. They defeated Napoleon's 1812 invasion and Hitler's 1941 invasion.  (author's snarky comment: "Somebody told me the other day ..." What? Only then did he learn some history? Sheesh.)  The US had, he said, "to get out" of the war.  Trump then attacked Zelenskyy, calling the Ukrainian President “the greatest salesman on Earth .... Every time Zelenskyy comes to the United States, he walks away with $100 billion.”   An official on Trump's campaign said that Trump will not meet with Zelenskyy, who is in New York attending the UN General Assembly. (quotations source: Associated Press) 

Sept. 25   Speaking in Mint Hill, North Carolina, Donald Trump referred to the Ukrainian people as “dead” with their country "in rubble." Saying Ukraine should have made concessions to Russia before the February 2022 invasion, He declared that “the worst deal would’ve been better than what we have now."  US aid is "something we have to have a quick discussion about because the president of Ukraine is in our country, and he’s making little nasty aspersions toward your favorite president, me .... If they (Ukraine in 2022) made a bad deal it would’ve been much better. They would’ve given up a little bit and everybody would be living and every building would be built and every tower would be aging for another 2,000 years.” 

Sept. 26   In Washington, meeting Zelenskyy at the White House, US President Biden announced a new commitment of $7.9 billion in military assistance for Ukraine. Beginning with a $375 million package that includes the first shipment of glide bombs called Joint Standoff Weapons (JSOWs). Having a range of 81 miles, the JSOW is a glide bomb designed for precision strikes against both stationary and moving targets. Using a combination of GPS guidance and infrared targeting, the bomb glides towards its target without the need for rocket propulsion, enabling it to engage enemy positions from a safe range. "The $375 million will be the largest package the US has sent Ukraine since May, and could be the last presidential drawdown of equipment before the end of the fiscal year on Sept. 30. Under authority granted by Congress, the U.S. pulls existing weapons from its stockpiles, and the money is meant to purchase replacement munitions and equipment. The Pentagon is working with Congress to roll the remaining $5.8 billion left in the presidential drawdown authority over to the next fiscal year. No deal has been struck yet as lawmakers struggle to come up with a plan to avoid a government shutdown on Oct.1, which will occur if no stopgap funding measure is passed in time." (quotation source: POLITICO)

Sept. 27  Contrary to what was stated on Sept. 24, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy did meet with Donald Trump at Trump Tower in New York. Prior to their discussion, the  two spoke to the media. “We have a very good relationship," Trump said, "and I also have a very good relationship, as you know, with President Putin. And I think if we win I think we’re going to get it resolved very quickly,” Trump added. In response, Zelenskyy expressed hope that Trump's relationships with him are indeed better than those with Putin. “I hope we (Ukraine) have more good relations,” Zelenskyy cut in. “Oh, I see,” Trump responded. “But it takes two to tango, you know, and I we’re going to have a good meeting today. And I think the fact that we’re even together today is a very good sign.” Asked why he decided to meet with Trump, Zelenskyy said the two had a “common view” on ending the conflict and, regardless of who wins the election, he hoped US support would continue. “I think we have [a] common view that the war in Ukraine has to be stopped, and Putin can’t win. The Ukrainians have to prevail, and I want to discuss with you (Trump) the details.” (quotations source: The Hill)

Sept. 28  At the UN in New York Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Celso Amorim (Chief Special Advisor to the Brazilian President) to announce the "Friends of Peace" platform.  Based on the China-Brazil "Six-Point Consensus" initiative (See May 23, 2024 above), the platform "will focus on promoting inclusive dialogue and avoid competition or confrontation."  Among the 17 members of the group are Turkey, Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Zambia, and  Kenya. Hungary is the only European country to announce that it will join, although Switzerland, long known and respected for its commitment to neutrality, has expressed support for the initiative. The US, France, and Switzerland have been invited to join. China's Foreign Ministry commented that "The platform is designed for peace and should be welcomed by the international community," adding that it seeks to express an "objective and rational voice" while contributing constructively to the political resolution of the so-called "Ukraine conflict".  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy criticized the joint initiative, saying that the only just basis for ending the war is his 10-point peace formula. (quotation source: MSN)  

Reminder:  Zelenskyy's 10-point program for peace was introduced in November 2022. The points reflect a broad sweep of conceptual matters to be resolved.  Very simply, they are:  radiation and nuclear safety, food security, energy security, release of prisoners and deportees, implementation of the UN Charter, withdrawal of Russian troops and cessation of hostilities, justice, ecocide and the protection of the environment, prevention of escalation, and confirmation of the end of the war.  

Sept. 29  Parliamentary elections in Austria gave the right-wing Freedom Party (FPO - Freiheitliche Partei Österreich) 57 seats in 183-seat National Council. While that might seem insignificant, no other party secured as many seats, giving the FPO the power to form a government. The FPO was founded in 1956 by two former officers of the Nazi SS.  Its electoral program calls for building Festung Österreich (“Fortress Austria”), a bastion against migrants, “political Islam,"and trans-friendly language. It likewise seeks "remigration" (deportation) of asylum seekers (There are some 80,000 Ukrainian refugees in Austria), the end of Austrian sanctions on Russia, and the ending of financial and humanitarian support for Ukraine.  Its leader is Herbert Kickl, who should, according to precedent, be appointed Chancellor (prime minister) but he will rename the position "Volkskanzler," the title the Nazis used for Hitler.  Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen, however, may not do so.  There is nothing in Austrian law requiring the President to appoint the leader of the majority party as Chancellor. Citing the rule of law, rights of minorities, independent media, and EU membership, Van der Bellen said "the pillars of our liberal democracy" should be respected. Any government that Kickl may form will need a minimum majority of 92 seats in the National Council. Achieving a majority will reqire the FPO's forming a coalition with another like-minded party, most likely the center-right OVP (Austrian People's Party - Österreichische Volkspartei).  Edelweiss, edelweiss ... certainly not the country the Von Trapp family fled from, but judging from the times, they probably would leave this Austria too.   

(author's comment: Since 1955 Austria's stance in international affairs has been neutrality. This was the condition upon which the Soviet Union would accept the restoration of an independent Austria. Readers are reminded that in 1938 Austria had been annexed by Germany as part of Hitler's Third Reich.  As such its military forces became part of the German army. The status of post-war Austria was part of the peace settlement, but its neutrality was not established until 1955.  See Chapter 25 part 1.) 

Oct. 1  Former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte was inaugurated as Secretary General of NATO. At 13 years in office, Rutte had been the longest serving prime minister in Dutch History.

Oct. 2  Croatian President Zoran Milanovic announced his refusal to send Croatian soldiers to Germany to participate in NATO’s Activity for Security and Training Support to Ukraine (NSATU).  Headquartered in Wiesbaden, NSATU was established in July 2024, and coordinates the provision of military equipment to Ukraine and training for Ukrainian forces.  Saying that despite the massive international military and financial support provided by NATO and the EU, the end of the war is not in sight and in danger of spreading beyond Ukraine, Milanovic stated the war is not in Croatia's national interest. His office issued a statement.  “It is the task of the President of the Republic — and in his opinion also the task of all Croatian state institutions — to protect Croatia from war and to take all measures to keep Croatia out of war conflicts. This is precisely why the President of the Republic did not give prior consent to the decision on the participation of members of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the mission of security and training support to Ukraine, being guided above all by Croatian interests and protecting Croatia from possible involvement in a war conflict."  How many Croatian soldiers were to be sent to NSATU? Five officers.  The Croatian Parliament has the power to overturn Milanovic's decision with a two-thirds vote.  (quotations source: bne intellinews  Headquartered in London, Berlin, and Tallinn, Business News Europe is a news service focusing on global emerging markets.)

Oct. 4   Ukraine launched a major overnight drone attack against several Russian oil depots in the Belgorod, Voronezh, Rostov, and Perm Krai regions. Located in the Urals, Perm Krai is some 1100 miles beyond the border with Ukraine.  Russia claimed to have destroyed the drones, and any ground damage was the result of falling debris.  Russia denied that a major fire in a 10,000 square-meter industrial zone in Perm Krai was not caused by a drone attack.  Commenting of the attack, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereschuck said, “This is how, step by step, the war enters the enemy's territory." (quotation source: Newsweek)