Size and Value of Calcium Substitute Market

C: I would like to reiterate to ensure that we are on the same page. I am to come with a structure to estimate the market size followed by market valuation of calcium substitutes in Indian Pharmaceutical market.

C: So, calcium substitutes come in various forms including swallowable tablets, chewable tablets, capsules etc. Do you want me to focus on any specific form.

C: So, I will start off with sizing the market for calcium substitutes in India. I would first like to divide the population of India in terms of 4 distinct age brackets i.e., 1-25 years, 26-50 years, 51-75 years and above 76 years of age. The percentage of population that I would attribute to each of these age brackets is 15%, 30%, 25%, 20% and 10%. Does this approach seem appropriate in your opinion.

C: I would further divide people in each bracket into a segment who consume calcium substitutes because of a specific medical condition (prescription) and regular consumption (off the counter). The former is to probably take the calcium substitutes as prescribed tablets by a medical professional while the latter might use them as off the counter medicines.

C: Assuming the population of India to be roughly 130 Cr, I would first split the population base into 2 major segments ‘Urban’ and ‘Rural’ with 30% & 70% split approximately. Is that reasonable?

C: To start with, the age bracket of 1-25 years who use for regular condition would be 20% as this age bracket is characterized by low levels of nutritious food consumption, decreased outdoor activity combined with rapid body growth. For the people consuming calcium substitutes because of a medical condition would be around 5% as this age is associated with good health

C: I believe the largest customer segment for us are the people of the age group 26-50 years. Somewhere around 30% of people might consume it as a regular substitute. This age group includes majorly majority of pregnant women who require calcium substitutes in the first trimester of pregnancy. 

C: I have observed that people usually develop bone weakness during this time because of the work-oriented lifestyle. I think here 50% of the people in this age bracket consume calcium substitutes because of a medical condition.

C: Proportion of people of age 51-75 years will also require calcium substitutes as the aging process sets in rapidly and weakening bones are one the first symptoms majority of these adults face at the onset. I think 70% of this segment might consume calcium substitutes here a majority of which might be compelled by a medical condition. 

C: Lastly people 76 years and above will require calcium substitutes but I would allocate 55% of people here consume calcium substitutes. The reason for a lower number to this age bracket is because these people usually are deficient of many other nutrients as well. Hence their consumptions of multi vitamins and externally infused vitamins will be much greater. 

C: A good way to triangulate this data based on actual data gathered from the sales data of calcium substitutes on various e-commerce platforms that home-deliver medicines. Also, on the ground medical representatives and pharmacy retailers could provide us concrete data that can be extrapolated to the entire population.

C: Thank you!