Where Have all of the Derbys Gone?

This is the first time that I have put anyone else's research and work on here, however as soon as I saw this, I knew that Town fans needed to have a look.

I would like to thank H The Duck (X account) for this excellent work.

By ‘H The Duck’

This dive into the current state of Swindon Town FC looks at the underlying issues of the club rather than the on-pitch issues (of which there are many but that’s for another day). 

Where have all the Derbys Gone ?

Every summer holiday I like to keep tally of how many of our local rivals football shirts I can spot. A sad pastime I’ll admit but it was cold and wet in Torquay this summer. At the final tally it was Bristol City who were clear winners this summer. Which got me to thinking ‘Whatever happened to Town playing them regularly ?’

A Brief History of the ‘Big Four’ Rivals and some Derby Day Data

For those of us of a certain age a decent local derby seemed like a regular occurrence. Perhaps something, in hindsight, we took for granted. Who can forget back in the 80’s and 90’s having to negotiate the streets around Elm Park. Running the gauntlet of The Cuckoo Lane. Finding yourself in an IKEA car park trying to remember where the Bristol Nomads were playing. Or peering beyond the Dolman stand to the river Avon to see if you could spot where ‘that’ Gordon Owen penalty eventually landed ?

Those heady days of my youth are a long time passing now of course. But it’s not just the thrill of watching the Town in some rickety old stadium that was so obviously inferior to our own beautiful ‘Wembley of the West’ that have long gone. Also disappeared into the ether are the actual traditional proper local derby fixtures against ‘The Big Four’ of Oxford, Reading, Bristol Rovers, and Bristol City. 

What used to be regular fixtures each season seem nowadays to be an increasingly rare treat. In the 1980’s Town had 28 league games against the local Gang of Four. In the 1990’s there were 40. In the 2000’s there were 28. Then the situation begins to change and dramatically so. Combining the 2010’s (14 derbys) and 2020’s (6 so far) Town have enjoyed just 20 derbies across a decade and a half. From an average of 3 or 4 derby matches per season across the 80’s 90’s and 00’s to an average of just over one derby match per season in the 2010’s and 2020’s.

Chart 1: Derby Matches by Club and by Decade 1980-2024

Ever Decreasing Rivalries. 

It’s not like Town have outgrown one or two of the locals but fallen behind the others. That could be forgiven as the normal ups and downs of a football club’s lot. To put a positive spin on things over the years Town have ‘stood still’. But to simply stand still is simply to be overtaken by everyone else. The local ‘Gang of four’ rivals have upped sticks and left us behind. Oxford, City, Gas, and Reading. All literally in a league (or more) above us.

Last time we played the above teams in a league match ;

Reading 2002

Bristol City2015

Oxford 2021

Bristol Rovers 2022

Since 2017/18 our entire derby tally against the ‘Big Four’ rivals is;

City - No games

Reading - No games

Oxford - One season

Rovers - Two seasons

The 2015/2016 season was the last time any one of our four rivals has been in a league below Town. That’s ten seasons since Town were in a league above any single one of them.

Neither City nor Reading have been in a league lower than Swindon Town for the past 25 seasons. Thats over 40 Town managers ago. 

In the 80’s Town were up and down across the leagues between League 2 at the start of the decade and finishing the decade as a Championship club. 

A Pattern of Decline Emerges. 

The pattern is that each decade that passes the club becomes a regular in the league below where it was the previous decade. 

1990’s Town were consistently  Championship. 

2000’s Town were consistently League 1 (with just an occasional drop into League2)

2010’s Town were predominantly a League 2 club (with the occasional foray into League 1). 

2020’s Town undeniably a League 2 club and currently on-course to continue the pattern and drop into National League. November 2024/25 and Town are poised precariously in 22nd place, above the relegation trapdoor on goal difference. 

-Town had their worst ever league finish last season in 19th place. 

-Town are currently on their joint worst consecutive run of bottom league seasons (4 seasons currently and almost certain to be 5 seasons at start of the next - unless Town get relegated this season.)

Table 1 :

STFC Vers Our Big Four Rivals - 1980’s to Present Day.

Season-by-Season Who is in the higher League ?

How have Town fallen so very far behind our traditional local rivals?

Our fall in comparison to our rivals revivals has much to do with the fact that we no longer run Reading around the streets of Elm Park. We no more endure the Cuckoo Lane gauntlet or get lost in East Bristol. The days of being able to see over the top of the Dolman are long gone. Those rickety old run-down grounds were long-ago demolished. Each respective club either relocated to a new purpose built stadium or else redeveloped beyond recognition. Their new stadiums have been designed to generate income outside of match days. Stadiums have been the driving force behind the progress of the football side of the business. As the one time (and still much missed by many Town fans) Town CEO Andrew Fitton once said ‘League tables are simply a reflection of how well each football club is ran as a business’.

Reading FC Snapshot.

Reading left Elm Park in 1998 and have spent each of the past 20+ seasons at the Madjeski. Since Town last played them in the league in 2005 Reading have constantly been in league(s) above Town. The Madjeski has provided revenue outside of the football matches and has hosted various concerts and has extensive conference facilities for hire.

However. The quality of ownership and leadership at Reading has deteriorated recently. Reading have seen their league position mirror their off-field decline.

Table 2:

STFC Vers Reading - 1980’s to Present Day.

Season-by-Season Who is in the higher League and by how many Leagues ?

Oxford United Snapshot. 

Oxford left the Manor Ground in 2001 to move to The Horseshoe stadium. They have now reached the Championship under the direction of joint owners Thohir and Bakrie (previously Thohir was Inter Milan owner).

Since Town opened The South Stand in 1994 the Headington heathens have left the Manor Ground. Built and played at The Kassam for 20+ seasons. They will likely have sourced another new location , designed , received planning permission , secured £100m funding and completely built another brand new stadium whilst Town pontificate on retrofitting some hospitality boxes into the 30+ years old South Stand by 2026.

Table 3:

STFC Vers Oxford - 1980’s to Present Day.

Season-by-Season Who is in the higher League and by how many Leagues ?

Bristol Rovers Snapshot. 

The Pirates acquired the Memorial Ground from their original tenants Bristol Rugby in 1998 and have continuously added and improved it. Gas have added roofs to the Clubhouse stand and the family stand. Most recently they built a brand new South stand. They now reside in League One with ambitious plans to further develop The Mem with student flats and a hotel as future revenue providers.

Table 4:

STFC Vers Rovers - 1980’s to Present Day.

Season-by-Season Who is in the higher League and by how many Leagues ?

Bristol City Snapshot. 

Of all the local clubs it is probably Bristol City that have redeveloped their ground the most impressively. In 2014 it had a £45million pound refurbishment. Ashton Gate now has a capacity of 27,000. In ‘concert mode’ this can increase to 32,000. It has extensive conferencing and exhibition facilities plus hospitality boxes for either the football or the Bristol Bears rugby team which share the venue.

Table 5:

STFC Vers Bristol City- 1980’s to Present Day.

Season-by-Season Who is in the higher League and by how many Leagues ?

The Pillars of Progressive Football Club Leadership: 

Finance and Recruitment. Knowledge and Experience

Of course the ability to secure such off-field facilities requires a first-class team at the very top of the club. It needs the leadership , vision , financial backing and know-how to deliver correct development decisions. Who do our rivals have in their ‘Team behind the Team’ ? A quick flick through Wikipedia gives this small snapshot of each club ;

Bristol City

Owner (Chairman since 2002)

Steve Lansdown

Financial Services Billionaire

CEO / CFO (most recent appointment top)

Tom Rawcliffe (prev AFCWimbledon and MBA in Football Industries)

CEO Phil Alexander (CPFC CEO for 26 years)

CEO Richard Gould (prev Surrey CC CEO)

Bristol Rovers

Owner (since 2023)

Hussain AlSaeed

Banking / Tourism. £500m est

CEO

Tom Gorringe (prev Brighton & H.A. FC)

Martin Starnes (prev CEO Plymouth Argyle FC)

Oxford United

Owner(s) (Since 2022)

51% Joint Owner(s)

Erick Thohir

Billionaire and former owner of Inter Milan.

Anindya Bakrie

Billionaire

CEO

Tim Williams (Prev Man UTD CFO and Inter Milan CEO)

Reading FC

(‘On the up’ structure)

Owner (Since 1990)

1990-2012 John Madjeski

Net worth est £250m-£300m

CEO

1995 - Nigel Howe specialist property developer brought in specifically to oversee Elm Park to Madjeski Stadium move.

Reading FC

(On the slide’ structure)

Owner (Since 2017)

Dai Yongge

Chinese businessman est £650m former owner of Chinese football club Beijing Renhe (which went bankrupt)

CEO(s) 

Dayong Pang - No known prior football experience

Nigel Howe (Former) CEO (who when subject to a 12 month football ban) became ‘Property Projects Manager’ brought in to oversee sale of club. 

Swindon Town

Owner (majority owner)

2021 - Current. Clem Morfuni Australian businessman ,

Unknown wealth. No previous football experience

2014 - Morfuni becomes minority shareholder

2013-2021 Lee Power ex Pro Footballer , unknown wealth

CEO

2021 - Current. Andrew Hall (No previous football experience)

Just this quick quick scroll through the financial clout of owners and each CEO’s CV show two important components to a successful club structure. The owner has to be legitimately wealthy , trustworthy , and with a genuine track record of business success. Connection with the local area is a nice to have (Lansdown, Madjeski) but not a necessity.

The second component is that the owner has to have the sense to appoint a CEO with a proven track record in the football industry.

When either of these two components are missing then things can quickly unravel as seen at post Madjeski Reading.

How can Town bridge the gap between us and our traditional local rivals before the distance becomes too great? 

Major redevelopment of the County Ground (or a new stadium in a new location) is urgently required to begin with. Revenue must be generated outside of match days and used to support the football side of the business.

Through the Joint Venture the club own 50% and the supporters 50% of the ground. The club pay rent to The Trust which is used to improve facilities. Major stadium development is the responsibility of the owner(s). 

The club don’t own their own training ground. The County Ground has been neglected for decades. The toilets (almost literally) speak for themselves. No new major structural upgrade since the Don Rogers stand back in the mid 90’s. The Arkells is from the 70’s and the Town End and the Stratton Bank are barely fit for purpose.

Clem Morfuni, the current majority owner and Andrew Hall the CEO, recently failed to put in place a basic process to pay Police and Ambulance services on time. They have been in their roles for approaching four seasons now. To them it was acceptable to regularly pay the Joint Venture (JV) late for the County Ground rent. The club have had numerous Football League sanctions and financial penalties for various types of ‘admin errors’. Clearly the club is not run to highly professional standards. How then are the club or its owner(s) going to secure major funding for any future County Ground redevelopment ?

Any potential commercial lender would look at the current owner(s) track record and see red flags. Against what asset(s) would funding be secured ? If the County Ground isn’t available to secure borrowing against. What else exists ? There isn’t a CFO in place at the club. The full accounts aren’t publicly available and the owner(s) admitted themselves they don’t know where some of the money is going.

The JV between the Owner , STFC Trust and the Council requires £1million worth of development agreed by March 2026. Failure to do so and Swindon Council have the right to buy-back the County Ground for £2.3m - the original price that they sold it to the JV for. From the outside it looks like retrofitting of executive boxes has been chosen as the route to meet this condition. The one Million pound structural investment clause was a minimum not maximum. Perhaps a bigger development of a new stand at either end of the ground would be a better long-term investment. There seems little need or fan request for such executive box development. There is so much everyday maintenance of the stadium required. If the owner does have cash to spare on such things as the new ‘fanzone’(The statue of Don looks very good and was paid for by the fans via the supporters trust) then perhaps he should add to that budget and spend it on upgrading and making good the dilapidated current facilities in the stadium. 

To give credit money has been spent on ; pitch upgrades , DR stand loudspeakers , and the very recently the legends lounge , but in reality these are no more than typical ongoing stadium maintenance and just scratching the surface of what is required overall. The Joint Venture does mean that money paid to The Trust for rent will be reinvested into the stadium which is potentially good. This money has so far been used to provide basic remedial and safety work. Serious ground redevelopment remains, as I understand it, the responsibility of the owner(s). 

It has been reported that the proposed stadium redevelopment will be completed in two separate phases. First will be executive boxes in the South Stand. Second will be the redevelopment / refurbishment of the remaining stands and a roof over the Stratton Bank. This development, it was reported, will have to be self-financing. This seems to be pie-in-the-sky thinking. No serious business self-finances a major capital investment project in such a way.

There are probably another dozen reasons that I’ve not listed but the current club ownership structure does not look best placed to take the Town forward when compared to our rivals. As The Trust themselves said (15 May 2024) in an open letter to The Chairman of Swindon Town FC:

“We, as a Trust led by our recent survey, are today declaring we have lost all confidence and trust in the leadership and ownership of our beloved Swindon Town Football Club. Further, we have no faith that a promised re-development of the County Ground is plausible under your ownership.”

The New Rivals on the Block. 

Subsequently our ‘rivals’ are nowadays more likely to be ex-National League ‘powerhouses’ such as Cheltenham and FGR. In the medium term FGR may well overtake us again despite currently being Non-League. FGR have just a couple of thousand fans but they have an owner prepared to invest in both a training ground and a new stadium. Their current ground ‘The New Lawn’ is still comparatively new but FGR now have planning permission for a £100 million purpose built ‘Eco Park’ development near Stroud. 

Cheltenham have added their new Colin Farmer stand 2001 and the new Hazlewood Stand in 2005 plus adding a roof to the Prestbury Road End in 2001. Both clubs have recently been above us in League 1 of course.

Unless we now consider Walsall as a local derby it seems we’re stuck with recently National-League clubs Cheltenham and FGR. Both of which we have often looked down our collective noses at. These two small clubs whose supporters once shamelessly begged and goaded us to be their rival in order they could share some of our ‘big club’ limelight. Best make the most of it whilst it lasts my fellow Town fans, the way they are developing their stadiums it may not be so long until they too sit regularly above us again.

West Country La La La (oh??)

Across the whole of the South West, Town are now the lowest ranked EFL club. Exeter (last played league 2022) , Plymouth (last played league 2021). Both these clubs have invested considerably in their stadiums over recent years. Exeter have had three new main stands added since 2000 - they now boast the largest standing single terrace in the country (The Big Bank) which alone holds almost 4000 home supporters. Exeter have also recently developed a brand new £3.5 Million training facility. Plymouth’s Home Park has had had over £20million of investments since 2001.

One day soon, if and when derbys against Cheltenham and FGR go the same way as Exeter and Plymouth seem to be going and the ‘Big Four’ have, we may all have to make plans for trips to the English riviera. Not just for our close-season summer holidays but to play our new new ‘local South West rivals’. The much missed Torquay United have shed their previous owner and will soon redevelop their stadium with the aim of returning to the Football League. Unless of course they pass us by one close-season?

A Managerial Revolving Door spinning with ever increasing velocity. 

Since Glenn Hoddle took us to our Premier League zenith STFC have had approaching 50 managers ,and the odd appointment aside, it’s been one long slide into the impending doom of National League that we are currently facing. A good manager can achieve a promotion but too often the foundations of such promotion seasons have been built on sand. Without an income generating stadium, to support the playing-side budget long-term, within a season or two it’s back to where we were previously. Town have not been above League 1 this century. The average number of matches an STFC manager lasts mirror the club’s decline over the decades. It seems the worse the club is run the less matches a manager is able to survive against the odds before becoming the inevitable scapegoat for each respective owner’s shortcomings. Rinse and repeat. 

The average number of games for a Morfuni era permanent manager now stands at . . . 30 

1980’s ave matches per manager : 160

1990’s ave matches per manager : 125

2000’s ave matches per manager : 60

2010’s ave matches per manager : 50

2020’s ave matches per manager : 30

*figures rounded to nearest 5

Morfuni Era Manager’s Games and Position when departing. 

Garner 56 6th

Lindsay 30 7th (?)

Morris 18 10th

Flynn 33 19th

Kennedy 15 22nd

Looking backwards: 

Missed Opportunities 

It’s not just the current owner that is wholly to blame for this long-term decline (although short-term there are huge question marks against his ownership). The problem is a long-term lack of foresight, finance and planning that has meant the club has been left behind all of its traditional rivals. The financial and social dynamics of football in England changed just as STFC briefly joined (and left) the Premier League. This change has only accelerated in the intervening years; huge TV deals, fan demographics, wealthy and often foreign owners, worldwide attention, and a trend towards football clubs based in the south. 

Looking Backwards:

The Rise of the South. 

Draw an imaginary line roughly running from Bristol to London (call it the M4 perhaps) then around the outskirts of London (call it the M25) and then south down to Brighton (call it M23) and every league club inside of that line is in a higher league than Swindon (excluding Wimbledon which has a unique set of circumstances and Bromley a club that has climbed up from the depths of London’s non-league area). 

The South (as defined above) currently has 30 teams, which is only a third of the 92 league clubs, but it comprises 45% of the Championship and the Premier League combined. But this ‘southern bias’ wasn’t always a thing. In the early years of the Premier League there was a definite bias towards Northern clubs in the top two leagues. In 1994/95 ‘The South’ only made up  a third of the top two leagues. Over the past 30 years there has been somewhat of a flip in the distribution of southern / northern teams in the top two leagues and ‘The South’ now comprises 45% of the combined Premier League and Championship club places. 

1994/95 South North Club Distribution

Premier League - South 8. North 14

Championship - South 8. North 16

League One - South 8. North 14

League two - South 4. North 18

2024/25 South / North Club Distribution 

Premier League - South 10. North 10

Championship - South 10. North 14

League One - South 7. North 17

League Two - South 3. North 21

Looking Backwards:

Missed opportunities. 

The money in football moved south but it seemingly bypassed Swindon. Whether STFC owners throughout the years have not understood this or been unable to capitalise or chose not to see it is unknown. Black certainly had money but it was an expensive and ultimately short stint as owner for him. Maybe Swindon is in fact just a northern Town in a southern location and no-one has told it. The many London clubs benefit from being in a world-famous city and with an economy dynamic which is wholly separate entity to the rest of the country. All of the other southern ‘provincial’ clubs are located in towns or cities that have either a university or an airport or often both. 

“Universities play a pivotal role within their local communities. Multiple studies have found a correlation between the presence of a university in a large town or city and socioeconomic development in the local area. They are key drivers of social, technological and economic innovation.”

Source:

timeshighereducation.com

Both are massively important in driving the cultural and financial well-being of each respective town or city. 

“Airports as Engines of Economic Growth: Exploring the Linkages.

Historically, transportation networks like shipping, railways, and highways influenced a city’s economic power. Today, airports are taking on this role for cities, regions, and countries, positively impacting their respective economies by attracting business and trade.”

Source : airportgurus.com 

Swindon had its original boost to its economic power via the railways. Those days are behind us now. 

Swindon is on the M4 corridor but good road transport links are commonplace and not a defining feature unique to Swindon. 

Equidistant to London Heathrow, Birmingham, Southampton and Bristol universities and airports but at 60-90 minutes travel Swindon is too far away to benefit economically. 

Swindon town:

(Near to places that are nice)

Swindon has neither an airport or a university. Or a concert hall/music venue. Or an Olympic-standard swimming facility. Or a snow dome. Or a dedicated art and history museum building. All projects mooted, promised but ultimately never delivered. The Swindon Steam Museum is a great facility but it’s not THE national steam museum. 

Seemingly passed over and decaying culturally and financially. The Rail works, Honda , Oasis, Speedway have all gone and been replaced respectfully by a Shopping Mall , Amazon (probably) , Derelict , and yet another identikit soulless housing estate. Maybe the football club simply reflects the town itself. To achieve success for the football club against this background will take an owner of vision, ambition , personality and wealth that are few and far between. However if we can find ourselves one of those and their investment will be repaid a thousand times over by a fanbase desperate for someone to own and to love their club even half as much as they do. 

Invest or Die a Slow Death

What is evident is that those clubs who have invested in structure and facilities for their players and fans have been rewarded. Those who failed to take the opportunities provided have been left behind.  

This article began by focussing on how the club has declined compared to just our local rivals. But it also stands that every other successful club across the country that have invested wisely, progressed with modern and often multi-use facilities that drive revenue to be reinvested have also left us behind. The bigger picture nationally is that STFC used to regularly lock horns with clubs like Brighton, Brentford , Millwall , and Portsmouth for example and we no longer do so. 

STFC are not the only club to fail to invest in their facilities and stadium. The likes of Rochdale , Bury , Oldham , and Scunthorpe have all had their share of poor ownership and a lack of investment. All teams STFC used to play regularly in league matches and now all languishing in the National League or worse. If STFC do slip into the National League coming straight back up isn’t a given. Being 7 nil down at home to National League Aldershot in last season’s FA Cup R1 anyone ? 

National League Promotion: 

Survival of the Fittest (Unfit owners need not apply). 

In the National League many of the clubs there have the ingredients to be successful once promoted to the EFL - wealthy owner , experienced CEO and a modern stadium facility. Clubs from National League are battle hardened by a punishing promotion process and as such don’t get relegated the following season. If a club has any structural, ownership or financial weaknesses they will have been exposed. The National League promotion process is designed to sort the wheat from the chaff. Only the Champions are automatically promoted after a 46 game season. Only one club is promoted through an elongated play-off system. Poorly run clubs do not survive this pressure test. The EFL does not want weak, poorly run clubs to be promoted to their League system and have designed a system that ensures exactly this outcome. 

22 National League teams have been promoted since 2013/14 and only 5 clubs - Macclesfield, Barnet, Hartlepool, Sutton and FGR are not currently League 2 or above. Six of the 22 are currently in League 1 - Bristol Rovers, Lincoln, Wrexham, Leyton Orient, Cambridge and Stockport. One club , Luton Town , are in Championship. The remainder of the 22 are currently in League2. None of the 22 promoted National League clubs since 2013/14 have yet had an immediate return to National League. 

Looking Forwards:

The American Dream. 

But. If the first 30 years of the Premier League era saw a move at the top two leagues towards southern based clubs and away from northern ones a new dynamic of Stars and Stripes ownership is upon us. The arrival of American owners is likely to see the geographical imbalance return to a more even keel. These owners are seemingly indifferent to location when pursuing club ownership - Wrexham (Reynolds and McElhenney), Birmingham (Wagner and Brady) have recently invested in EFL clubs. They are the most high profile EFL American owners but there are many others besides those. Currently almost half of the Premier League clubs have American ownership models. Across the 92 English clubs it is approximately 25%. With the trend for American ownership likely to continue across the whole of the EFL, Swindon Town will hopefully jump on-board this time rather than missing HMS Opportunity like it has previously. Ironically the neglect of the past 40 years means that the club is a prime opportunity for an American owner to build a club in exactly the way he wants. Surely a tempting proposition for any ambitious owner. 

Chart 2: Football club ownership nationality. 

Source: worldsoccertalk.com 

Looking Forwards. 

The Potential. The Future. 

STFC has the potential to be regularly better than League Two. This fanbase has the potential to be regularly bigger than 12,000+. With 20,000 possible as we move up the leagues. This club needs immediate short-term footballing improvements just to preserve football league status but just as importantly the club needs medium and long-term structural and commercial improvements. Swindon Town need an owner(s) to invest £20million+ in a multi-use stadium soon (this may potentially mean leaving the current site) or to seek funding from someone who can do so. The club need an experienced CFO in place and they need a CEO with proven success in the football industry. 

This town’s football club (plus the Wildcats Ice-Hockey but to a lesser degree) is possibly the last cultural or sporting entity that the whole community of Swindon have left to support and join together for. Although I personally have moved away from the town it’s football team is the one thing that keeps me connected to my childhood friends, and to the memory of much missed friends and family no longer with us. It keeps me coming back week after week, year after year. It means the world to me (and to thousands like me too) and I hate to see it in such a poor state.  Especially so knowing that continued failure to develop both structurally and commercially off the pitch will likely see STFC wither and die as a competitive footballing entity on the pitch. Change can happen. From despair can come hope. Our rivals have been through similar and come out the other side all the better for it. Swindon Town FC has potential to be so much better than it currently is but it needs an owner who is so much better than ours currently is. 

Thank you to the wonderful STFC resource that is 

Townenders.com for all of the Swindon related data used in the tables