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As tariffs start being erected, the role of food imports/exports will become more visible. And the gulf between EU and US, with UK totally at sea will become more apparent.
"Starmer may not have the requisite political skills (like Odysseus) to navigate between the competing and contradictory pressures of a trade agreement with Trump’s USA (Monster Scylla) and one with the EU (Whirlpool of Charybdis.)." Thank you Michael Hindley for this Greek Myth analogy
Marshall Plan
Marshall Plan
The Marshall Plan had been for US to 'give' grain to help Europe - and help themselves to a new market. The classic US food problem is 'overproduction'. Tomes are written about it and tonnes money poured in as subsidies to offset lack of good market prices (over $50B/yr in last Farm Bill.. Good prices come from short supply. US produces too much food so has to unload it to keep prices up. The US foreign policy ever since has been dominated byy trying to impose Marshall plans elsewhere
The Marshall Plan was seen by many in Europe as a political controlling exercise, the US deciding where to send food - for their friends and not to those they disagreed with. The EEC set up CAP much as a way to not be beholden to US again.
CAP developed through the Mansholt plan to merge farms (Failed) then in 90's MacSharry plans to introduce environment to subsidies.
Since the end of WW2, when USA provided Europe with much needed aid. particularly food, the US realised it was a good policy to promote everywhere else, and EU vowed they would never be dependent again.
Food as a weapon
Food as a weapon
Later, Earl Butz, past US Secretary of Agriculture for Nixon & Ford, said: “Food is a weapon. It is one of the principal tools in our negotiating kit.” (Time magazine, November 11, 1974. ) Or as Senator Hubert Humphrey put it: “Food is power. And in a very real sense it’s our extra measure of power.” (Cohen, Walter, (1971) “Herbert Hoover: Some Food For Thought,” Pacific Research and World Empire Telegram Ill)
"Mr. Butz maintained that a free-market policy, encouraging farmers to produce more and to sell their surplus overseas, could bring them higher prices" New York Times
EU has gone a long way to produce enough food to not rely on others, and to make sure it is pretty healthy, but also to stop US imports. To help in that has been the dominance of high standards governing food sales. Are they science or 'mumbo jumbo' - as BJ called some of them? But they have succeeded in keeping US out. If UK does a deal with US, the US will see that as an opportunity to open up EU.
But where does that put UK, now it out of EU. It is not bound by same standards. But if it wants to sell into the biggest world market on our doorstep, it has to maintain them. UK will have to decide to dump standards or maintain standards. Some farms will do both.
Trump on Trade (including rat hairs) divided the Tory cabinet. What will happen now?
Nov 2019 "The US is pushing lower food standards on Britain post Brexit, including allowing imports of chlorine-washed chickens (2nd working group, p 42), less nutritional labelling on foods (2nd working group, p 42), and less protection for regional food like Stilton cheese (1st working group, p 41). (See Geographic Status below)
Rat hairs, food Standards and possible Trump Deal (Geoff Tansey interviewing me)
Recently the role of ultra-processed foods (those consisting of feedstuffs of processed crops with ingredients you wont find in the kirchen) are more responsible for obesity in UK than anything else. We consume over 50% of our food energy in ultra-processed foods. Virtually all is imported - corn flour and sugars from US, soy from Brazil and Palm oil from Malaysia. Most of this is imported. This is what US good at - look at Kellogs, Heinz etc.,.It seems they import their feedstuffs already processed.
I predicted rise in obesity post Brexit
Food Bills up £6 BILLION in 2 years because of Brexit "The cost of food imported from the EU shot up because of extra red tape, adding £210 to the average household food bills over 2020 and 2021, London School of Economics (LSE) researchers discovered. As low-income families spend a greater share of their income on food, the impact of Brexit on their purchases was disproportionately greater, they said." It also means poorer people will eat more cheap u-p food.
Tariff reductions already- raw sugar and maize
Non tariff barriers - increased between UK & EU dramatically.
" The UK areas with high obesity levels were much more likely to vote Leave even when controlling for other important variables. Peter Ormosi maintains that while it would be naïve to think that body-weight determines voting preferences, body-weight and life-style choices are however things that could help us better understand the psychology of voters. "
The top 9 'Leave voting districts had over 30% obesity rates. And the tenth is barely any better!
We're swapping importing salad and veg and fruit from EU to import more ultra-processed foods, like cornflakes and baked beans. from US. I predicted Brexit would make us more obese..
Trump wins
Starmer caught
EU carries on
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