Predictions
Here are my predictions of main impacts of Brexit on food and farming. These were made immediately after Tory landslide in December 2020 and based on my book Bittersweet Brexit.
Background
1. This government has eyes only on free markets.
2. Lamb farms face triple whammy
Unreliable subsidies, likely rises in quotas of NZ lamb, and 40% taxes facing export into EU. will put pressure on an already poor and old workforce.3. George Eustace promised Welsh farmers that subsidies would remain much the same.
4 Already import nearly 50% of food, likely to go up rather than down
5. UK was most obese nation in EU
Obese people suffer disproportionately due to Covid. UK had highest EU virus death rate, highest obesity rates and highest consuming ultra-processed food.6. Laws protecting workers have already declined in last 10 years, now no protection.
7. T&L leading Brexiteers so will be rewarded
8 Standards are enforced not by inspectors - as they are not law - but more by retailers and consumers.
9 Our pesticide approval systems, based on EU precautionary principle that lays down levels to protect. More 'Pesticides at the Crossroads'.
10 'Protected Foods' cannot be protected by EU law any more, at best only UK law - so harder for UK to enforce round the world
Prediction
1. Finance' versus 'Farming' wars where 'the City' will beat 'the farm and fisheries' every time.
2. Lamb farms to the slaughter.
3 Subsidies will not be maintained at present amount
4. In next 10 yrs, we will import higher % of food we eat, which will result in
a. highest proportion of ultra-processed food in Europe
b. more packaging and more food waste and food banks and..
5. The UK will get fatter over next 5-10 years, particularly those poorer off.
6. a For workers, 'hours' and 'leave' laws will virtually disappear, especially in England where the Wages Board was abolished.
b. Migrant workers from outside the EU will arrive
7. Tate & Lyle will be knocking on the door @ No 10 to remove sugar cane tariffs.
8 There will be no law to maintain food and farm standards - as there cannot be a law.
9 Neonics will be allowed, despite EU moratorium
10 Safety controls in food will move from 'Hazards' approach to 'risk' approach.
11. The UK will be selling 'genuine Scotch Whisky' to India with tariff much less than 150%
Results
1 Fish The fisherman’s verdict on Brexit: Boris Johnson sold us down the river – again
Barrie Deas, the chief executive of the National Federation of Fishermen’s Organisation, accused the prime minister of having “bottled it” on fishing quotas. Fish for moreMind you 'Financial Services' haven't done too well either.Rishi Sunak has offered financial services firms the prospect of closer access to EU markets than outlined in the Brexit trade deal, after Boris Johnson conceded that this aspect of the agreement fell short of UK hopes. Australia deal ignores impact on UK farmers2. Eustice agrees 'one sector, sheep, affected as we are a net exporter of lamb" & suggests they could 'diversify' to beef (if not importing as much from Ireland). Eustice said that the Australian deal he was party to was bad for sheep and dairy farmers in UK
British farmers must be delighted (post Deal) that they now have to go through more red tape to sell lamb to the EU than New Zealand have to.
3 Farmers to get only 2.9b - instead of 3.5b used to get from EU.
Dec '19 Chancellor Sajid Javid said the government will provide 2.9 billion pounds of funding over two years More from Bloomberg All subsidies to go by 2027.4 Several trade deals, Australia and Pacific, now signed that encourage cheap food imports.
5 Trade deals may add 1500 diet-related deaths US Candy stores arrive on High St
6 a. Didnt take long. Jan 15 'Workers' Rights at risk' - esp. Working Time Directive.
2023 Government set up consultation on 2 'Working Time' elements
b. Cuts in Nepalese workers as exploitation exposed. Still thousands from Tajikistan, Uzbekistan &Kyrgyzstan.
7 This has come true by June. 260K (plus existing EU quotas) 'tax-free' quota introduced on raw 'cane sugar for refining' Renewed for 3 years Jan 22
8 Attempts to maintain standards defeated twice in parliament. First evidence - vote to oppose maintaining import standards. Food import standards - no absolute controls, vague ones via Commission.
9 Government overturned Expert Committee advice on neonics to allow seed treatement 2023
10 August Maximum Residue Levels (MRLs) - previously set by EU will in future be set 'behind closed doors'.
'Risk' Approach: (Nov '20 ) CPA says: "there is potentially a real benefit if the UK regulator is able to deal with new active substances as a priority and get those to market as quickly as possible, assuming the risk assessment process results in an authorisation for products. "
FSA shakeup of checks on supermarkets moves to risk-based approach June 2023. "is a direct response to the lack on enforcement staff in the UK"
11. Despite Rishi's best efforts no sign of a trade deal, as India want in return, visas, visas and visas...
While our standards and laws are slipping, those in the EU are not. EU looks like penalising farmers who underpay..
2. Lamb Farms to the Slaughter
As the triple whammy kicks in, there are few alternatives for sheep farmers. Gove says there are great opportunities to sell lamb to USA and 'markets in the Far East & Middle East'. Who is he kidding that this is going anywhere near making up loss of sales to EU.
They cannot upsticks and go somewhere else. The land could be worked better, but is never going to be great.. The most publicised option will be to plant trees. Sounds good all round. University of Sheffield suggested farmers could earn enough by letting the land 'naturally regenerate into native woodland' and being awarded £3tonne of carbon captured.
But Sheep farmers say "It is really easy for scientists to justify the planting of forests through a carbon calculation, because it is easy to measure how much carbon is in a tree and then apply an offset value. But our sheep farmers are managing one of our most precious resources – grassland – while also producing nutritious food."
Let's not forget that there is no carbon trading in agriculture at the moment. Leaving plants to regenerate is a good idea, but does not help the local economy, as sheep farmers do now.
11. Truss, Trade & Tariffs
Liz Truss is trying to do deals with US and Japan where in both cases she is trying to get reductions on tariffs for UK food and drinks – as part of the plan to export more. (NB Not import less food). ‘Hard liquor’ (in world trade terms) makes up 40% of our food and drinks exports by value.
The US has said ‘no’ to reduce hefty tariffs on Scotch whisky, which she says are ‘unfair’. The US do not appear to be trembling at this negotiating position.
And Japan have said ‘no’ to removing tariffs on Stilton Cheese, in her attempt to have a cheese ‘win’ - to make out we have a better deal than EU with Japan
However both these products are ‘Protected Foods’, meaning that - to have the name - they can only be made in a particular location in a particular way – like Melton Mowbray pies and Cornish pasties. They were protected under EU law. That means that – at best - they may still be ‘protected’, but only by UK law. The UK will find it find it harder to enforce ‘protected names’ round the world, than the EU can.
The Scotch whisky sector want to increase sales to India from around £100m but face a tariff of around 150%. India says that any trade deal would have to involve 'increased free movement' of Indian people to the UK.
Is this what many people who voted Brexit wanted?
I predict that US will start making ‘genuiiiine Scotch Whisky’ and will soon be selling it to India @ a reduced tariff.