Enrollment Forecast

Forecast and Methodology

Forecast

Accurate enrollment forecasting is vital for the long-term planning of K-12 schools. A recent analysis by MKThink, RT Tanaka Engineers, and Hawaii Off Grid Architects identified over 5,800 housing units under construction or planning in Central Maui. They project enrollment to grow by more than 3,300 students due to new housing developments over the next ten years. 

Cohort-Survival Model

Enrollment forecasts, like projections, rely on past and current trends but also incorporate predictions of future shifts. The Department of Education’s (DOE) near-term projections depend on the grade progression ratio (GPR or cohort-survival) model. The GPR model captures the school enrollment patterns of students as they progress from grade to grade. While the GPR method is easy to implement, it is challenged by a lack of dynamism: the methodology does not account for critical variables that affect student enrollment (e.g., migration, changes in demographics, housing deliveries, etc.), and it assumes that ratios in the past will continue to be accurate in the future. Considering these limitations, the GPR method is best used for shorter timeframes (one to seven years).

Housing-Based Model

The dwelling unit multiplier model suggests evaluating an area’s current and future housing inventory to extrapolate the potential student-age population being added to the area. This includes researching future housing deliveries and making assumptions for the student yield for each housing type. This method is best suited for areas experiencing rapid population growth and is thus used to derive the enrollment forecast in Central Maui with an assumption of 0.7 students per household.

Uncertainty in Enrollment Forecast

The enrollment forecast carries inherent uncertainty, with the potential for forecast error increasing the further we look into the future. To address this, SFA plans to design the initial phase of the new middle school with a capacity slightly below that of the existing 19 portables at 'Iao and Maui Waena intermediate schools combined. This approach provides flexibility in case projected housing developments are delayed. In such a scenario, the new middle school would enable existing middle schools to phase out outdated portables, enhancing the overall learning environment and reducing reliance on temporary structures.

Monte-Carlo Simulation of Projected Increase of Student Population 

Impact of Lahaina Fire

The Lahaina wildfires, the deadliest natural disaster in Hawaii's history, devastated Maui on August 8, 2023, destroying over 2,200 structures and displacing approximately 4,500 families. This crisis resulted in significant population shifts, particularly from West Maui to Central Maui, creating challenges in housing, education, and community stability.

The influx of displaced families has led to increased student enrollment in Central Maui schools. The 2023-2024 school year saw 1,024 additional students compared to the previous year, significantly straining local educational infrastructure. Intermediate Schools, High Schools, and Puʻu Kukui Elementary in Central Maui are operating over or near capacity. 

The surge in student numbers has resulted in a notable seat deficit, particularly in middle and high schools. This overcrowding affects the quality of education and access to resources.

Housing Development in Central Maui

1. Over 4,000 units of housing development projects are planned in central Maui.

2. Maui Tomorrow Foundation 

3. Maui County Development Project Map 

4. Affordable Housing Projects 

Recent Enrollment of Middle Schools

• There is no capacity to accommodate additional students at both 'Iao and Maui Waena Intermediate schools.

• 'Iao Intermediate

  • 113% capacity

  • 7 Portable classrooms

  • There is no space on the campus for additional classroom buildings.

• Maui Waena Intermediate

  • 91% capacity

  • 12 Portable classrooms

  • A new 2-story classroom building may be built on the field near P7-12.

  • New classrooms opened in 2017

• 2025 (2025-26) data is a DOE projection

• Total 380 portable capacity

Recent Enrollment of Pu'u Kukui and Pomaika'i Elementary Schools

• Pu'u Kukui Elementary School

  • 105% capacity

  • Due to continuing housing development near the school, increased student enrollment is expected in the next 3 to 5 years. DOE plans to install two portables and purchase nearby property to expand the school's capacity.

• Pomaika'i Elementary School

  • 81% capacity

• “We’re going have to do something relatively quickly in terms of looking at schools that are underutilized and using those schools in a better manner,” said Sen. Troy Hashimoto, (D) Wailuku, Kahului, Waihee. “I think some of the elementary schools have a little bit more capacity than others.” KHON March 5, 2024

Recent Enrollment at Baldwin and Maui High Schools

• Baldwin High

  • Enrollment: At capacity

  • 20 portable classrooms.

• Maui High

  • Enrollment: The enrollment has declined in the last two years due to a shift of students to Kulanihakoi HS.

  • 37 portable classrooms.

Planning

Elementary School

Near-Term DOE 40-50 seats will be added with two portable classrooms

(1-4y) SFA None

Mid-Term DOE Potentially redistrict elementary schools

(5-8y) SFA New Central Maui School Ph II with 550 ES capacity

Long Term DOE Add further capacity at Puu Kukui Elementary with a land acquisition

(9+y) SFA None

Middle School

Near-Term DOE None

SFA None

Mid-Term DOE None

SFA New Central Maui School Ph I with 600 MS capacity

Long-Term DOE None

SFA Add new classroom buildings and demolish portable classrooms

High School

Near-Term DOE None

SFA None

Mid-Term DOE Potentially redistrict high schools

SFA None

Long-Term DOE None

SFA Add new classroom buildings and demolish portable classrooms

References

1. Analysis of the Central Maui School Impact District, DOE 2010

2. MKThink Central Maui School Capacity Planning, June 2024

3. Maui County Population - World Population Review 

4. Why traditional forecasting falls short 

5. Predicting school enrollment with machine learning, YouTube  - ASU Artificial Intelligence Cloud Innovation Center