4. Future resilience and adaptation

Future possibilities for lessening human vulnerability to geophysical hazards

IB Learning Outcomes

  • Global geophysical hazard and disaster trends and future projections, including event frequency and population growth estimates
  • Geophysical hazard adaptation through increased government planning (land use zoning) and personal resilience (increased preparedness, use of insurance and adoption of new technology)
  • Pre-event management strategies for mass movement (to include slope stabilization), earthquakes and tsunami (to include building design, tsunami defences), volcanoes (to include GPS crater monitoring and lava diversions)
  • Post-event management strategies (rescue, rehabilitation, reconstruction), to include the enhanced use of communications technologies to map hazards/disasters, locate survivors and promote continuing human development

Very useful source

Global geophysical hazard and disaster trends and future projections, including event frequency and population growth estimates

Group discussion:

  • What are the underlying causes of the increase in the number of natural disasters?
    • Make a prediction for the future. Explain your answer
  • What are the underlying causes of the decrease in reported deaths.
    • Make a prediction for the future. Explain your answer
  • What other variable should be included
    • Make a prediction for the future. Explain your answer

In groups: For each type of disaster, explain the trend based on the speed of onset and one geographic factor.

eg: Earthquake and tsunamis are rare, but can cause large casualties due to a short speed of onset and increasing population density in at risk areas.

Infographic

What type of disaster seems more deadly?

What type of hazards are more costly?

What types of countries are most affected?

Evaluate this infographic

What is the trend?

What is the main cause of the increase?

Can you make a prediction for the future?

Social impacts

Discuss:

  • Why are more frequent disasters not necessarily the most costly?
  • What is the correlation between disaster cost and:
    • urbanization and the growth of megacities
    • population growth
    • the growing middle class
  • What should governments do with this information? Give examples from your CS.

Geophysical hazard adaptation through increased government planning (land use zoning) and personal resilience (increased preparedness, use of insurance and adoption of new technology)

Future possibilities for lessening human vulnerability to geophysical hazards

Adaptation: Ways in which human activities/actions are altered to take into account the increasing risk of a hazard

Resilience: The ability to protect lives, livelihoods and infrastructure from destruction, and to the ability to recover after a hazard occurred

Response

Exercise:

Alone or in groups of 2, you will explain one of the following type of adaptation:

    • Give a definition
    • Explain it's impact on risk and/or vulnerability of different stakeholders
      • Explain the benefits and drawbacks/limitations
    • Give concrete examples
    • Use one of our case studies and explain the changes that occurred after the event
    • Include visuals where relevant
    • Email 2 questions with answers to your teacher separately
    • Bishop and N&C have most of the research you need
  1. Earthquake prediction and early warning systems (government planning)
  2. Volcano prediction and early warning systems (government planning)
  3. Zoning regulations (government planning)
  4. Increased preparedness (personal resilience)
  5. Use of insurance (personal resilience)
  6. Adoption of new technology (personal resilience)

Complete your presentation on this slideshow

IB12: Pre-and Post Event Management Strategies

Pre-event management strategies for earthquakes and tsunami, including building design, tsunami defenses

(Bishop 47-8, N&C 204-6)

As you watch the videos take detailed notes of the main characteristics of earthquake and tsunami defense.

Modify the event


Modify loss



Have a look at N&C p. 205 and 206 for more building design, some at quite a low cost in LICs.


Tsunami research


Tsunami Defense


Tsunami Early warning systems


Indonesian PSA


Pre-event management strategies for volcanoes including GPS crater monitoring and lava diversions

(Bishop p. 71-3, N&C 205-6)

Take detailed notes

GPS monitoring


Earthquake monitoring


What is the reasoning behind:

  • Bombing the lava flow?
  • Pumping water on the lava flow?
  • Dry channels?


Post-event management strategies enhanced use of communications technologies to map hazards/disasters locate survivors and promote continuing human development

(N&C 209)

The importance of communication


Data/Information collection:

    • Mobile devices – GPS, QR codes, survey, both online and offline
    • Social media

Planning

    • Prioritize needs
    • Use of Geographical Information System (GIS) for suitable location selection for IDP camps or emergency hospitals etc
    • Spatial patterns and visualization of damage and needs

Web based national/international information systems

    • Unified data to be used and followed
    • Transparency among agencies involved in reconstruction and community

Monitoring

    • ICT can be used to aggregate information from multiple sources to facilitate reporting
    • See changes before and after event
    • General public can use social media to assess and monitor reconstruction outcomes at their location
    • Call centers can be effective for directing information on reconstruction to and from the public (national and international)

Exercise:

  • Each group will research one of the following ways ICT can help lessening human vulnerability to geophysical hazards.
  • Explain the system and how it helps reduce vulnerability in the short, medium and long term
  1. Facebook Disaster maps (see also) (or this)
  2. Crisis mapping (see also)
  3. Rapidftr (see also)
  4. J-Alert (see also)

Include your answers in this slideshow

Amazing Tokyo Flood Protection System

Not in the guide but still.......

Review

Synthesis (Sy), Evaluation (Ev) and Skills (Sk) opportunities

  • How hazard risk is a function of spatial interactions between different human and physical processes [Sy]
  • The varying spatial scale of the processes and challenges associated with different kinds of geophysical event and their aftermaths [Sy/Ev]
  • Different perspectives on how geophysical hazard risks should be managed [Ev]
  • How spatial patterns of risk and vulnerability can be represented graphically [Sk]

Past paper style questions (M11 + Spec)

  • Describe the pattern earthquake hazard risk shown on the map. [4 marks]
  • Explain the relationship between the magnitude of a hazard event and the frequency of its occurrence. [6 marks]
  • Analyse why communities may underestimate the probability of a hazard event occurring. [5 marks]
  • Examine the impacts of one named disaster and possible strategies for preventing its recurrence. [10 marks]
  • For one or more hazards of your choice, examine how estimates are made for the probability and likely impact of a major hazard event. [10 marks]
  • Referring to examples, examine why the geographic impacts of disasters vary in space and time. [10 marks]