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Table Of Contents
Table Of Contents
Background Information
Background Information
The project aims to propose solutions in order to better optimize bus resources in the eastern region with the opening of the Thomson East Coast Line (TEL), along with some consideration given to the opening of the Downtown Line (DTL) Extension 3 in 2024. In the eastern region, the TEL connects residents of the Bedok South and Marine Parade area to the city area with stations such as Shenton Way, as well as connects commuters to other lines such as the Circle Line (CCL) and North South Line (NSL) at Marina Bay. This requires us to look at which services will experience greater or smaller demand and propose amendments to the services accordingly. Doing so will allow us to better allocate bus resources to ensure that our public transport system remains of high quality while being cheap and reliable.
MRT Map in 2024 with the opening of the Thomson East Coast Line and the Downtown Line Extension 3.
Tasks Assigned
Tasks Assigned
In order to achieve this goal, we needed to look at data regarding the loading of buses and the origin-destination data of commuters to study commuter patterns. We then analyzed the patterns that we observed and looked at those which may change with the opening of the TEL. Thereafter, we proposed changes to bus routes and frequencies supported by the patterns of commuters that we have identified.
Firstly, we had to read up on the relevant work that LTA has accomplished over the years in order to run public buses today. This included the Bus Contracting Model (BCM), Bus Service Reliability Framework (BSRF) and a little more on bus scheduling.
Bus Contracting model
Bus Contracting model
The BCM was introduced in 2014. Under the model, LTA now owns all buses and depots. Bus services are now grouped as packages and according to their location. Vendors then bid for the rights to run a package which consists of 20 to 30 bus services with 300 to 500 bus fleets for fixed fees. Bus fees are then collected by LTA. Under this model, passengers gain the most as vendors now focus on meeting the requirements set by LTA on bus standards. Improvements to bus services are also more frequent as it is now under the control of LTA. This is in contrast to the past where vendors such as SBS and SMRT have no incentive to improve bus services and hence do so whenever they wish to.
Bus service Reliability Framework
Bus service Reliability Framework
The BSRF was introduced in January 2014. In essence, the framework works similar to a carrot-and-stick approach that aims to improve the en-route reliability of bus services. Under the BSRF, bus operators are provided with monetary incentives to minimise instances of irregular and prolonged waiting times. Bus operators are tasked to regulate the speeds of buses in order for them to reach bus stops and bus terminals on time. Commuters benefit the most from this framework as buses become increasingly reliable and punctual.
With a better understanding of the system behind running public buses, we were then tasked to look at buses which ridership may be impacted by the opening of the TEL. We then requested the relevant data to study current commuter patterns on the bus and predict any changes in those patterns when the TEL opens.
Methodology
Methodology
For selecting the buses to look at, we proposed 2 criteria:
- Route Duplication
- Lack of Connectivity
Example of bus routes which duplicate the TEL
Route Duplication
Route Duplication
We expect a decrease in ridership for buses whose route duplicates the TEL stretch as commuters are more likely to decant over to the Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) instead. To confirm this hypothesis, we also looked into different case studies to find similar commuter patterns.
Lack of Connectivity
Lack of Connectivity
As for lack of connectivity, we looked at areas and bus stops which currently have poor connection to the TEL stations. By analyzing the commuter habits of residents in that area, we are then able to determine amendments to routes, or any introduction of new services to better serve the area.
Bus stops identified with little connectivity to the TEL
After identifying the services to work on, we divided the work among ourselves to analyze the commuter patterns on the respective services and propose any changes to the service.
Proposed Amendments
Proposed Amendments
I looked into service 47.
Service 47 is a loop service which starts at Changi Business Park and loops at Amber Road. It connects the residential towns of Marine Parade and Bedok South with Changi Business Park. The service also connects residents of Bedok South to MRT stations such as Tanah Merah and the upcoming Siglap Station of the TEL. It serves a variety of educational institutions along the way.
Map showing route of Service 47
One feature of service 47 is that it has a relatively shorter route as compared to other buses running along Marine Parade Road and only operates within the East. As its route only coincides with 3 stations of the TEL, I looked into how commuter patterns may change through a case study of the opening of the DTL in 2017. Through this case study, I found out that there was still significant ridership for buses which run parallel to the MRT for short distances. This is especially applicable to service 47.
Through an analysis of passenger loads on buses, as well as the origin-destination data of commuters on service 47, I found that there were different types of commuters who use the service for different purposes. These patterns are also different for different days and dates. By requesting for the relevant data and taking as many considerations as possible, I proposed a route amendment as well as a frequency change.
Proposed route amendment for Service 47
Route Amendment
Route Amendment
For the route amendment, I proposed to loop the service earlier such that it does not duplicate the TEL for the entire stretch, somewhere in between Marine Terrace and Marine Parade stations. The amended route will loop at Marine Terrace, so as to shorten the route and also serve students who are studying at Ngee Ann Primary.
With this route amendment, the route is estimated to be 3.6km shorter. This cuts down the mileage of the service and reduces cost. The objective remains the same whereby it still shuttles students to their respective schools such as Temasek JC, Victoria School and Victoria JC, as well as supporting the movement of people between Changi Business Park, Tanah Merah MRT Station, Bedok South Road and Marine Parade Road. This is possible as commuters are now able to take 47 to the upcoming Siglap MRT Station and take the TEL to Marine Parade MRT Station to reach bus stops which service 47 no longer serve with this route amendment.
Frequency Change
Frequency Change
For the frequency change, I proposed for the frequency of bus service 47 to increase during such hours where demand is low, while maintaining the current frequency for the time periods where the demand for service 47 is adequately met with the deployment of buses.
I scheduled working timetables for the new proposed frequency, by taking into account the several commuter patterns throughout the day, as well as ensuring that the new timetable is aligned with the Quality of Service Standards by the Public Transport Council. With the new working timetable, I found that it the frequency change will save a total of 59 trips, which is equivalent to over 1 thousand kilometers in mileage, each week.
Skills Learnt
Skills Learnt
- Being meticulous and careful about our thought process in suggesting amendments to a service is crucial. We are only able to suggest amendments based on logical deduction which is supported by relevant data that has been organized and thoroughly thought through. It is vital that we think through all possible factors which affect commuter patterns, such as the day of the week and other travel alternatives, so that we can be certain of our prediction, and such that it has a high possibility of being accurate. Without thoroughly thinking through all possible factors, others may begin to question our prediction and the chances of LTA implementing the amendment will drastically decrease.
Group picture with one of the colleagues
- Communication is extremely important in workplaces where everyone has different roles and responsibilities, and where everyone needs to work together to accomplish their collective task. For example, we needed to work with various colleagues in order to obtain data where necessary as we did not have any knowledge or access to the data. Precision of request is also vital in ensuring that we obtain the correct data that we have in mind. For our project, whenever we requested data, we had to specify the service number, date, time, data type and other special parameters. This ensures that the data provided to us will be helpful for our analysis.
- Patience and flexibility are two very important values needed in the working environment. In the office, we have to understand that others also have their own tasks to accomplish, and hence may not be able to help us whenever we need it. When such circumstances arise, having a little flexibility will allow us to be able to find other solutions around the issue, such as better spending time on other areas which also require work to be done. Being patient with colleagues and giving them the time to process your request also creates a more friendly and caring work environment.
Group picture with respective bosses after presentation
Interesting Aspects
Interesting Aspects
- It is interesting to see how data eventually leads to change. Through the project, we analyzed data and proposed changes based on the trends we observed from the data we received. As the common saying: "A picture paints a thousand words", a similar notion could be applied to data collected. Although our work is largely predictive, it is easy to see how it can be an accurate representation of future commuter patterns. It has made me better aware of the power of data in general - whether it be tapping in and out on the bus, to the information we put up on social media. Data can be powerful yet dangerous if they are readily available and handled improperly.
- We had spent a substantial amount of time simply improving on our slides as we prepared for a presentation to several relevant bosses. While we had gained a lot more feedback on how to better optimize our slides to drive our points across to the audience, I have also realized how the presentation skills that we picked up in school were extremely helpful to prepare for the presentation. Coupled with this experience at LTA, I have picked up better presentation skills and will be better prepared for any more presentations which I will need to give in the future.
Takeaways for life
Takeaways for life
Not everything is about money. Even though a large part of our suggestions are to help LTA reduce cost with the opening of the TEL, not everything can or will be implemented, even if it seems extremely logical to do so. This is because we still have to take into account the people, who may or may not be minorities, but still use the service. Ultimately, we have to develop empathy in whatever we do, so that our work can be meaningful, and contribute to society in a positive way.
Group picture with mentor Mr Jeremy Wang
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