The curious case of Anthony Martial

By @UtdSFX, published on 07/09/21

12th September 2015

Manchester United vs. Liverpool

"Martial… isolated Skrtel here…

"OOOHHH YEESSSS!!!

"Welcome to Manchester United, Anthony Martial!!"

Martin Tyler's commentary elicits goosebumps in even the least sentimental United fan, transporting us back to the euphoria of the enigmatic Frenchman's debut.

However, the Martial we see today is a far cry from the fearless predator we witnessed that September evening. Goals have dried up, his confidence seemingly shattered.

Here, I look at Martial's Manchester United story, his ups and downs, circumstances and statistics, to see what's going wrong and if we can expect a return to form in the season ahead.

Martial's deadline day arrival from Monaco was greeted with bemusement from the media. He was the world's most expensive teenager, but was he good enough?

If his first Premier League game didn't silence the doubters, his next did. A brace against Southampton, sending Virgil Van Dijk for a hot dog in the process. 50 million down the drain? Far from it.

Martial went on to top score for the club in his first season with 17 goals, helping United win the FA Cup, their first trophy in the post-Fergie era (if you don't count David Moyes's Community Shield triumph, that is).

United's number 9 scored big goals in big moments, none more so than his injury-time winner against Everton at Wembley in the FA Cup semi-final.

However, United slumped to a 5th placed league finish, scoring just 49 goals. Their worst goal scoring season in the Premier League era, embarrassingly missing out on a Champions League spot to neighbours Manchester City on goal difference.

Strikers Robin Van Persie and Javier Hernandez had been sold at the start of the season, Danny Welbeck the season before. The lack of depth up top was alarming.

Ahead of the 2016/17 season, Zlatan Ibrahimovic was signed. He was handed Martial's number 9 in a move that shocked the Frenchman, who felt disrespected that he had not been consulted on the change.

Martial's form dipped as he was shifted to the left wing and Zlatan took centre stage. His quiet demeanour, viewed as ice cold in his first season, now viewed as disinterested. He finished the season with 8 goals.

Romelu Lukaku then signed for £75m and became United's newest number 9. Martial remained in the shadows during Lukaku's two seasons in M16. 11 goals in 2017/18, 12 goals in 2018/19.

However, Martial would be given his chance to shine once again.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, appointed manager during the 2018/19 season, had a rebuilding job on his hands. Lukaku didn't buy in and was promptly sold to Inter Milan.

Invigorated by a return to his central role and lack of competition, Martial scored 23 goals in all competitions in the 2019/20 season. His number 9 returned, and so did his smile.

But Martial should have known, you can't sit still at United. The 2020/21 season brought a fresh challenger.

Edinson Cavani arrived on a free transfer on deadline day. At 33 years old and not having played a competitive football match for 7 months, he wasn't expected to trouble Martial for his starting spot.

However, in 2020/21 Martial disappeared, scoring 7 goals in all competitions. His worst goalscoring season in a United shirt.

But why, when he finally seemed to be hitting his stride, did he stop in his tracks? It is a difficult question to answer. Let's take a look at the stats.

In 2019/20 Martial scored 17 Premier League goals from a total xG of 10.9, over-performing by +6.1 goals. He played 29.2 90s, equalling 0.37 xG/90.

In 2020/21, Martial scored 4 Premier League goals from a total xG of 6.5, under-performing by -2.5 goals. He played 16.4 90s, equalling 0.40 xG/90.

PL 90s G xG +/-xG xG/90

19/20 | 29.2 | 17 | 10.9 | +6.1 | 0.37

20/21 | 16.4 | 4 | 6.5 | -2.5 | 0.40

[Stats via FBRef.com]

Here we can see he was getting a similar amount of chances per game during both seasons, but went from clinical to comical in the space of one summer.

It is difficult to understand how this can happen. However, if we turn to stats again, Martial's off the ball contributions are particularly telling.

In 2019/20, Martial led the defence from the front. In 29.2 90s, he attempted 379 pressures, with 228 of these in the attacking third, completing 108 of them. He attempted 15 tackles, completing 12.

That's 12.98 Pres/90 and 0.51 Tkl/90.

In 2020/21, Martial's defensive numbers dropped significantly. In 16.4 90s, He attempted 148 pressures, with 96 of these in the attacking third, completing 42. He attempted 1(!) tackle.. thankfully he won it.

That's 9.02 Pres/90 and 0.06 Tkl/90.

PL 90s Pres PresW AttThird Pres/90

19/20 | 29.2 | 379 | 108 | 228 | 12.98

20/21 | 16.4 | 148 | 42 | 96 | 9.02

PL 90s Tkl TklW AttThird Tkl/90

19/20 | 29.2 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 0.51

20/21 | 16.4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.06

[Stats via FBRef.com]

While stats don't tell the whole story, they give a good indication of the wider picture. The stats above are quite alarming as they paint a picture of a player taking his foot off the gas.

The reduction in defensive effort and anticipation could easily translate to a lack of effort in the attacking phase too. In 19/20, Martial was on the front foot, eager to capitalise. The following season he bore a striking resemblance to a mannequin.

Once again, the question is "why"?

It is difficult to blame injuries as there is not much difference in Martial's injury record in both seasons. It is also hard to point at the disruption in atmosphere and scheduling brought by Covid-19. In fact, he had his most devastating spell during Project Restart, with 6 goals and 3 assists in 9 games.

Could it be that Anthony Martial is the ultimate fairweather footballer? That he only turns up when conditions are perfectly suited to him? The evidence would suggest so.

Solskjaer regularly reminds his players that when you sign for United, you sign up for a fight. Competition for places is fierce. He speaks from experience, having gained 'super sub' status in his playing days due to the strength of attacking talent ahead of him.

It appears that Martial does not respond in the face of adversity in the same way as the Norwegian did back in the day.

So what now? Competition is stronger than ever. With the second coming of Cristiano Ronaldo, Cavani's contract extension and the emergence of Mason Greenwood, Martial's prospects don't look good.

So what about a place on the left wing? Unlikely. Marcus Rashford, Jadon Sancho and midfield misfit Paul Pogba stand in Martial's way. He is arguably 4th choice in both of his preferred positions.

Not to mention young prospects Anthony Elanga and Amad Diallo, who will be hungry to stake their own claim for a starting XI spot.

It feels as though this season represents Martial's last chance. Either he steps up, or he could be asked to step out. He needs to find his motivation again.

A goal for France this week was a flicker on the heart monitor, but he will need much more to bring his United career back to life.

On Sunday, it will be 6 years since he began with a bang against Liverpool. It is now up to Tony to take every available opportunity to prove that he has a place in United's future, or soon we will only be left with the memories.