HYPOTHESES

Hypotheses are central to the modern scientific method.

"All observation must be for or against some view if it is to be of any service" -- Charles Darwin

Many methods of inquiry are useful for science. Science has a long tradition of using inductive reasoning to create explanations of the world using careful observations (Bacon, 1620). Modern science also uses deductive reasoning to systematically test and improve scientific explanations (Popper, 1959). Therefore, both inductive and deductive reasoning are important for scientific inquiry.

Hypotheses can be very useful for structuring both the inductive and deductive reasoning that scientists use to make and support scientific discoveries (Glass and Hall, 2008). Hypotheses can bind scientific papers together into consistent frameworks that link mechanistic explanations to testable predictions (Lobban and Schefter, 1992; Betts et al., 2021). Therefore, it will be useful to discuss what hypotheses are, and how we can test hypotheses to build knowledge about the world.

In summary, what we commonly think of as the “scientific process” can be broken down into a chain of steps. Based on all of the information that they have available, scientists develop some idea about how the world (or the universe) works (a “Scientific Model” or “General Hypothesis”). The model makes predictions that can be compared to observations about the world/universe made in the past or future. The predictions are often expressed in a quantitative (numerical) way, and in a way that allows information from limited samples to test the predictions. First, scientists use statistical tests to rule out the possibility that observed patterns in measured data are due to chance (to defined levels of confidence). Second, scientists evaluate how well the predictions match the observations, taking into account additional information from their own measurements, and related measurements that others have made. Based on how well the observed data match the predictions of the scientific model, the scientists then decide what to do with the model: keep it, modify it, or discard it. Scientists can use two basic approaches to testing scientific models, or "General Hypotheses:" DEDUCTIVE testing ("Strong Inference"), or INDUCTIVE testing using frameworks such as Hill's Criteria.

Clearly, the scientific process is complex!

Using clearly-defined frameworks can help us simplify the process of science. For example, we have seen how two types of reasoning, deductive and inductive reasoning, can be used to link the elements of the scientific process together. Each type of reasoning can be organized around specific frameworks. Deductive reasoning can be broken down into syllogisms. Inductive reasoning can use use frameworks such as Hill's criteria to organize information from diverse sources. Choosing and using specific frameworks to structure arguments can help to simplify decision-making, and make it easier to communicate our reasoning to other people.